Conservative support fell by nearly 14 per cent in province
CBC News · Posted: Sep 21, 2021
Political scientists say the Tories' commanding grip on Alberta was weakened on election night by Premier Jason Kenney's controversial response to the devastating fourth wave of COVID-19.
The "Kenney effect" was in full force at the polls, said Lisa Young, a political scientist with the University of Calgary.
Conservative support in Alberta fell by nearly 14 per cent in Monday's federal election, allowing the NDP and the Liberals to gain a foothold in some ridings.
Many Albertans voted in protest against COVID-19 restrictions or a lack thereof, Young said Tuesday.
"I think we saw a few things that sort of speak to the Kenney effect," she said.
"The fact that the Conservatives didn't do as well in terms of the popular vote as they have in the last couple of elections is probably a case of the traditional Conservative supporters not going up to vote, or voting for another party as a protest."
As Canadians elected a Liberal minority government for the second time since 2019, Alberta remained a largely uninterrupted sea of blue.
The Conservative Party of Canada dominated in Alberta, especially in rural ridings, but there were notable exceptions in ridings that instead went orange or red.
The NDP held on to Edmonton Strathcona, and by early Tuesday, NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais was declared the winner over Conservative incumbent Kerry Diotte in Edmonton Griesbach.
George Chahal won for the Liberals in Calgary Skyview. In Edmonton Centre as of Tuesday afternoon, Conservative incumbent James Cumming remained locked in a see-saw battle against Liberal Randy Boissonnault in a still undeclared race.
The Tories were left with 55.4 per cent of the vote in Alberta. In 2019, the party garnered 69 per cent.
Public health divide
Young said Kenney's divisive approach to the pandemic has Tory voters breaking off on both of the left and right side of the conservative camp.
Increasing support for the People's Party, particularly in Alberta's rural ridings, points to a splinter on the far right, one borne out of frustration and distrust over a recent COVID clampdown in Alberta.
"That speaks to a different kind of Kenney effect from people who object to what the provincial government is doing in terms of COVID," she said, adding it is a reminder that there are people disaffeced with the Alberta political system.
Calgary pollster Janet Brown said Albertan unhappiness with Kenney's handling of the pandemic surged in the final weeks of the campaign.
Many Tories will now blame the premier for Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole's losses on the Alberta campaign trail, she said.
"When you look at the overall national popular support for the Conservatives, it's not far off the last election, but there's been this big drop in Alberta," Brown said.
"O'Toole was able to make some good progress outside of Alberta but troubles in Alberta sort of undermined him.
"There's going to be a lot of conservatives who are angry about how the last week of the campaign played out. And we'll be looking for Jason Kenney's role in that."
Brown said Alberta remains a conservative heartland but the Kenney government's handling of the pandemic influenced perceptions of the federal Conservative party.
O'Toole had previously praised the Alberta government's pandemic response. But as election day approached, the province was in the grips of a surging fourth wave that threatened to push the health-care system to its breaking point.
"The Conservatives got 14 per cent lower in this election than they did just two years ago ... That's a huge shift," Brown said.
"There's no key beneficiary of that drop, which again, makes you wonder what was going on in the minds of voters."
The biggest loser in Monday's federal election might just be Jason Kenney
The election is bad news for the federal Conservatives but it is a disaster for Kenney, writes Graham Thomson
This column is an opinion from Graham Thomson, an award-winning journalist who has covered Alberta politics for more than 30 years. For more information about CBC's Opinion section, please see the FAQ.
As federal Conservatives cut through the clutter of the election to figure out why they lost, they'll be pointing their knives in the direction of embattled Alberta Premier Jason Kenney.
They are upset, to say the least, with Kenney for so mishandling the fourth wave of the pandemic that he became an issue in the final week of the election campaign as he chaotically tried to prevent Alberta's health care system from collapsing under the weight of COVID-19 cases.
By declaring yet another province-wide public health emergency and by finally being forced to introduce a vaccine passport (that he disguised as a "restrictions exemption program"), Kenney allowed Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau to attack him and by extension Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole, who had applauded the Alberta premier's pandemic response just days prior.
Of course, O'Toole really had only himself to blame for praising Kenney while COVID-19 began battering Alberta's health care system. In the end, O'Toole clumsily did his best to avoid journalists' questions on the issue, going so far as not even mentioning Kenney by name.
The campaign might have had a litany of issues, including Afghanistan, gun control and daycare, but the pandemic trumped them all, and Kenney became the poster boy of how to let COVID-19 overwhelm your health care system.
It's not fair to blame Kenney for O'Toole's loss, but federal Conservatives who are eager to save O'Toole's hide post-election aren't going to go easy on the Alberta premier.
Even though the national seat results for the Liberals and Conservatives pretty much echo those of the 2019 election, the Alberta results are an ominous sign for the provincial Conservatives.
The NDP held on to Edmonton Strathcona and, in one of the upsets of the night, NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais defeated Conservative incumbent Kerry Diotte in Edmonton Griesbach.
Diotte may have been the victim of a perfect storm where, compared to 2019, the progressive vote surged while thousands of Conservative voters stayed home or switched to the People's Party of Canada that saw its share of the vote double in the riding.
George Chahal won for the Liberals in Calgary Skyview, while in Edmonton Centre, Conservative incumbent James Cumming was in a see-saw battle against Liberal Randy Boissonnault.
This is bad news for the federal Conservatives but it is a disaster for Kenney. It would seem the public's anger at the Alberta premier has bled into the federal arena.
Normally, federal Liberal candidates in Alberta only have a chance to win a seat when their party is clearly headed toward a majority government — as it was in 2015 when Liberals won four seats.
When their party is headed to defeat or a minority status, they lose those seats, as they did in 2019.
Now, here they are on the cusp of winning two Alberta seats while their party only managed to eke out another minority government.
And the NDP, always ecstatic to win even one seat in Alberta, now has two.
You could call that the Rachel Notley effect, where the public's approval of the provincial NDP leader's behaviour during the pandemic has spilled over into the federal scene.
If Kenney was treading water yesterday, he is a drowning man today.
Not only is he the least popular premier in the country, with a fractious caucus on the edge of revolt and a party that is falling behind the NDP in fundraising, he will be the target of federal Conservatives looking for somewhere to point fingers.
This has happened before in Alberta politics.
During the federal election in June 2004, Premier Ralph Klein's very vocal plans to shake up Alberta's health care system created a massive headache for Stephen Harper's Conservatives.
Klein had boasted of "bold and courageous" reforms that would challenge – if not outright break – the Canada Health Act.
Liberal leader Paul Martin seized on Klein's rhetoric to attack Harper and it worked. Conservatives blamed Klein for allowing the Liberals to hang on to power with a minority government.
Klein's popularity, already beginning to weaken, began a free fall. He managed to win the Alberta election in November 2004 but lost 11 seats and 200,000 votes compared to the 2001 election.
Klein's days were numbered and, after receiving a humiliating 55 per cent support in a leadership review in March of 2006, he had no choice but to retire earlier than planned.
Kenney, on the other hand, is not supposed to face a leadership review until late next year.
However, there is now a move afoot by some UCP constituency associations to force a review early next year to give the party time to choose a new leader before the next election scheduled for the spring of 2023.
The knives are out for Kenney and they're coming from all directions.
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