Rebecca Speare-Cole, PA Sustainability Reporter
Mon 28 October 2024
Current national climate plans “fall miles short” of what is required to avert the worst impacts of global warming, the UN has warned.
These plans – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would see global emissions in 2030 at a level only 2.6% lower than in 2019, according to a report from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
This falls far short of the 43% reduction by 2030 called for by the global Paris Agreement, which commits countries to take action on curbing temperature rises to prevent devastating climate impacts.
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, warned that greenhouse gas pollution under this current trajectory “will guarantee a human and economic train wreck for every country, without exception”.
Governments are legally bound to submit new NDCs every five years, outlining how they plan to cut emissions over the next decade.
Countries are due to table their new proposals for 2025-2035 ahead of Cop30 in Brazil in December next year.
The UK Government climate advisers last week recommended the country commits to cutting emissions by at least 81% on 1990 levels by the middle of the 2030s in its new NDC.
Under the Paris Agreement, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels to avert the worst impacts of warming, on the road to net zero by 2050.
Mr Stiell said the latest report “must be a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year.”
“The report’s findings are stark but not surprising – current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country,” he said.
“As expected, with countries currently working to put together new NDCs due next year, this year’s report shows only fractional progress compared to what is expected – and urgently needed – next year.”
Mr Stiell called for “much bolder new national climate plans” that can drive stronger investment, economic growth, jobs, less pollution, better health, lower costs and other transformational benefits in every nation.
He said the new plans need to have ambitious new emissions targets, must be broken down into sectors and gases and must be credible, backed up by substantive regulations, laws, and funding to ensure goals are met and plans implemented.
The report comes ahead of countries gathering for negotiations at the UN climate conference Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month.
Dr Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK’s policy director, said: “As we approach the Cop29 climate conference, with floods and hurricanes devastating lives and livelihoods around the world in real time, the past, present and the future all paint a terrifying picture for the fate of humanity and should serve as a slap in the face to governments all across the world.
“Now is the moment for real leadership from the heads of the global community, and the UK Government must step up and deliver it, as promised.
“Together with ending all new oil and gas licences, the Labour Government must at least triple renewables and double home energy efficiency rates by 2030, as well as properly support workers to transition away from polluting industries. Failure is not an option.”
Patrick Galey, senior fossil fuels investigator at Global Witness, said: “As we reel from the impacts of record-breaking heat, devastating hurricanes and floods, the need for climate action could not be more obvious.
“Unfortunately we’re still seeing governments fight fire with water pistols.
“At this year’s Cop, we need to see leaders radically shift gear and push for a rapid and just phase-out of fossil fuels.”
Climate minister Kerry McCarthy said: “This report highlights why it is crucial all major emitters bring forward ambitious emission reduction targets consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.
“Britain is back in the business of climate leadership because the only way to protect current generations in the UK is by making Britain a clean energy superpower, and the only way to protect our children and future generations is by leading global climate action.
“The UK will announce an ambitious target at Cop29, and we will support other countries to do the same.
“All countries must work together to protect current and future generations from climate disaster.”
Carbon cuts 'miles short' of 2030 goal: UN
Governments are legally bound to submit new NDCs every five years, outlining how they plan to cut emissions over the next decade.
Countries are due to table their new proposals for 2025-2035 ahead of Cop30 in Brazil in December next year.
The UK Government climate advisers last week recommended the country commits to cutting emissions by at least 81% on 1990 levels by the middle of the 2030s in its new NDC.
Under the Paris Agreement, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels to avert the worst impacts of warming, on the road to net zero by 2050.
Mr Stiell said the latest report “must be a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year.”
“The report’s findings are stark but not surprising – current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country,” he said.
“As expected, with countries currently working to put together new NDCs due next year, this year’s report shows only fractional progress compared to what is expected – and urgently needed – next year.”
Mr Stiell called for “much bolder new national climate plans” that can drive stronger investment, economic growth, jobs, less pollution, better health, lower costs and other transformational benefits in every nation.
He said the new plans need to have ambitious new emissions targets, must be broken down into sectors and gases and must be credible, backed up by substantive regulations, laws, and funding to ensure goals are met and plans implemented.
The report comes ahead of countries gathering for negotiations at the UN climate conference Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month.
Dr Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK’s policy director, said: “As we approach the Cop29 climate conference, with floods and hurricanes devastating lives and livelihoods around the world in real time, the past, present and the future all paint a terrifying picture for the fate of humanity and should serve as a slap in the face to governments all across the world.
“Now is the moment for real leadership from the heads of the global community, and the UK Government must step up and deliver it, as promised.
“Together with ending all new oil and gas licences, the Labour Government must at least triple renewables and double home energy efficiency rates by 2030, as well as properly support workers to transition away from polluting industries. Failure is not an option.”
Patrick Galey, senior fossil fuels investigator at Global Witness, said: “As we reel from the impacts of record-breaking heat, devastating hurricanes and floods, the need for climate action could not be more obvious.
“Unfortunately we’re still seeing governments fight fire with water pistols.
“At this year’s Cop, we need to see leaders radically shift gear and push for a rapid and just phase-out of fossil fuels.”
Climate minister Kerry McCarthy said: “This report highlights why it is crucial all major emitters bring forward ambitious emission reduction targets consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.
“Britain is back in the business of climate leadership because the only way to protect current generations in the UK is by making Britain a clean energy superpower, and the only way to protect our children and future generations is by leading global climate action.
“The UK will announce an ambitious target at Cop29, and we will support other countries to do the same.
“All countries must work together to protect current and future generations from climate disaster.”
Carbon cuts 'miles short' of 2030 goal: UN
Robin MILLARD
AFP
Mon 28 October 2024
Emissions, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, have continued a relentless rise in recent years (GEORGE FREY) (GEORGE FREY/GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/Getty Images via AFP)
Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere reached new record highs in 2023, the UN warned on Monday, with countries falling "miles short" of what is needed to curb devastating global warming.
Levels of the three main greenhouse gases -- heat-trapping carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide -- all increased yet again last year, said the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nation's weather and climate agency.
Emissions, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, have continued a relentless rise in recent years, even as rising temperatures unleash increasingly damaging and costly extreme weather across the globe.
A separate report by UN climate change found that barely a dent is being made in the 43 percent emissions cut needed by 2030 to avert the worst of global warming.
Action as it stands would only lead to a 2.6 percent reduction this decade from 2019 levels.
"Current national climate plans fall miles short of what's needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country," said UN climate chief Simon Stiell.
The two reports come just weeks before the United Nations COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, and as nations prepare to submit updated national climate plans in early 2025.
"Bolder" plans to slash the pollution that drives warming will now have to be drawn up, Stiell said, calling for the end of "the era of inadequacy".
- 'Trainwreck' -
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to cap global warming at "well below" two degrees Celsius above average levels measured between 1850 and 1900 -- and 1.5C if possible.
But so far their actions have failed to meet that challenge.
Existing national commitments would see 51.5 billion tonnes of CO2 and its equivalent in other greenhouse gases emitted in 2030 -- levels that would "guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception," Stiell said.
Carbon dioxide was accumulating in the atmosphere "faster than at any time during human existence", up more than 10 percent in two decades, the WMO said. The current atmospheric CO2 level was 51 percent above that of the pre-industrial era.
As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will keep accumulating in the atmosphere, raising global temperatures, WMO said.
Last year temperatures on land and sea were the highest in records dating as far back as 1850, it added.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo said the world was "clearly off track" to meet the Paris Agreement goal, adding that record greenhouse gas concentrations "should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers".
- Climate 'feedbacks' -
The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was three to five million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3C warmer and the sea level was 10 to 20 metres (65 feet) higher than now, it said.
Given how long CO2 lasts in the atmosphere, current temperature levels will continue for decades, even if emissions rapidly shrink to net zero.
Just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, while the rest are absorbed by the ocean and land ecosystems.
Climate change itself could soon "cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases", WMO deputy chief Ko Barrett warned.
"Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming.
"These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society."
In 2023, CO2 concentrations were at 420 parts per million (ppm), methane at 1,934 parts per billion, and nitrous oxide at 336 parts per billion.
CO2 accounts for about 64 percent of the warming effect on the climate.
Barret said much of the world's warming trajectory hinges on how fast the world can transition to a low fossil fuel economy.
"The question is to what degree will we see that manifest at COP29 in action," Barrett added.
tsz-np/klm/giv
UN warns carbon cuts fall ‘miles short’ of what is needed to avoid devastating global warming
Mon 28 October 2024
Emissions, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, have continued a relentless rise in recent years (GEORGE FREY) (GEORGE FREY/GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/Getty Images via AFP)
Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere reached new record highs in 2023, the UN warned on Monday, with countries falling "miles short" of what is needed to curb devastating global warming.
Levels of the three main greenhouse gases -- heat-trapping carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide -- all increased yet again last year, said the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nation's weather and climate agency.
Emissions, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, have continued a relentless rise in recent years, even as rising temperatures unleash increasingly damaging and costly extreme weather across the globe.
A separate report by UN climate change found that barely a dent is being made in the 43 percent emissions cut needed by 2030 to avert the worst of global warming.
Action as it stands would only lead to a 2.6 percent reduction this decade from 2019 levels.
"Current national climate plans fall miles short of what's needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country," said UN climate chief Simon Stiell.
The two reports come just weeks before the United Nations COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, and as nations prepare to submit updated national climate plans in early 2025.
"Bolder" plans to slash the pollution that drives warming will now have to be drawn up, Stiell said, calling for the end of "the era of inadequacy".
- 'Trainwreck' -
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to cap global warming at "well below" two degrees Celsius above average levels measured between 1850 and 1900 -- and 1.5C if possible.
But so far their actions have failed to meet that challenge.
Existing national commitments would see 51.5 billion tonnes of CO2 and its equivalent in other greenhouse gases emitted in 2030 -- levels that would "guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception," Stiell said.
Carbon dioxide was accumulating in the atmosphere "faster than at any time during human existence", up more than 10 percent in two decades, the WMO said. The current atmospheric CO2 level was 51 percent above that of the pre-industrial era.
As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will keep accumulating in the atmosphere, raising global temperatures, WMO said.
Last year temperatures on land and sea were the highest in records dating as far back as 1850, it added.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo said the world was "clearly off track" to meet the Paris Agreement goal, adding that record greenhouse gas concentrations "should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers".
- Climate 'feedbacks' -
The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was three to five million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3C warmer and the sea level was 10 to 20 metres (65 feet) higher than now, it said.
Given how long CO2 lasts in the atmosphere, current temperature levels will continue for decades, even if emissions rapidly shrink to net zero.
Just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, while the rest are absorbed by the ocean and land ecosystems.
Climate change itself could soon "cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases", WMO deputy chief Ko Barrett warned.
"Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming.
"These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society."
In 2023, CO2 concentrations were at 420 parts per million (ppm), methane at 1,934 parts per billion, and nitrous oxide at 336 parts per billion.
CO2 accounts for about 64 percent of the warming effect on the climate.
Barret said much of the world's warming trajectory hinges on how fast the world can transition to a low fossil fuel economy.
"The question is to what degree will we see that manifest at COP29 in action," Barrett added.
tsz-np/klm/giv
UN warns carbon cuts fall ‘miles short’ of what is needed to avoid devastating global warming
Rosie Frost
Mon 28 October 2024
UN warns carbon cuts fall ‘miles short’ of what is needed to avoid devastating global warming
Greenhouse gas levels surged to record highs in 2023, committing the planet to rising temperatures for years to come, the UN’s weather monitoring body said on Monday.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO’s) greenhouse gas bulletin, carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time during human existence. Concentrations have risen by 11.4 per cent in just two decades.
The increase in CO2 in the atmosphere in 2023 was higher than that seen in 2022 though lower than the three years before that. It was the second-largest annual rise of the last decade. Large forest fires and a possible reduction in the carbon absorbed by forests combined with stubbornly high CO2 emissions from human activity fueled the increase.
The WMO says globally averaged surface concentrations of the greenhouse gasses CO2, methane and nitrous oxide all increased in 2023. CO2 concentrations reached 151 per cent of pre-industrial levels, methane 265 per cent and nitrous oxide 125 per cent.
The news comes ahead of the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan next month. WMO secretary-general Celest Saulo says it should “set alarm bells ringing” for decision-makers.
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“We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
“These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.”
National climate plans fall ‘far short’ of necessary emissions cuts
On Monday, the UN also published a separate report taking stock of countries’ current nationally determined contributions or NDCs.
It found that national policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions fall significantly short of what is needed to limit catastrophic global warming.
To stay within the Paris Agreement target to limit warming to 1.5C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says emissions need to be cut by 43 per cent by 2030.
Current policies would see global emissions cut by 51.5 gigatonnes of CO2 by the end of the decade - just 2.6 per cent lower than what they were in 2019.
Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.
As counties work on new, stronger NDCs, which are due in February next year, the report shows marginal progress has been made from last year with pledges falling far short of what is needed. It puts increasing pressure on world leaders to make ambitious progress at COP29 in Baku this November.
“The report’s findings are stark but not surprising - current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country,” says Simon Stiell, UNFCCC executive secretary.
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“By contrast, much bolder new national climate plans can not only avert climate chaos - done well, they can be transformational for people and prosperity in every nation.”
Stiell added that the report’s findings should mark a “turning point”, serving as a “blunt reminder of why COP29 must stand and deliver”.
It comes after a stark warning last week from the UN Environment Programme, which said the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels were "virtually zero".
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