How Arab and Muslim voters turned their backs on the Democrats
Analysis: The majority of Arab and Muslim Americans split their vote between Trump and third-party candidates, after backing the Democrats for two decades.
Elis Gjevori
07 November, 2024
"No new wars, family values, affordable groceries," read Donald Trump’s campaign fliers in Dearborn, Michigan, home to the largest Arab-American community in the United States.
And the message clearly resonated.
Michigan, a swing state, saw Vice President Kamala Harris and the now president-elect Donald Trump campaign heavily to capture the city’s 200,000 Muslim and Arab American voters.
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In the end, Trump won the state by just over 84,000 votes, a state President Joe Biden had carried by more than 154,000 in 2020, in part due to overwhelming support from Arab American and Muslim voters.
As Harris and Trump scrambled to persuade undecided voters, Trump’s campaign found that some of the up-for-grabs electorate in battleground states were about six times as likely as other voters to be motivated by their views on Israel’s war in Gaza.
Trump’s team acted on the data and blitzed Michigan voters of Arab and Muslim descent with an anti-war message.
“Why would Muslims support Lying Kamala Harris when she embraces Muslim hating and very dumb person, Liz Cheney,” asked Trump, referring to the daughter of Dick Cheney, the former Vice President under President George Bush who took the country into war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“Her father brought years of war and death to the Middle East. He killed many Arabs, many, many Arabs and Muslims,” added Trump to rapturous approval.
“The Muslim American and Arab American communities abandoned Kamala Harris in droves. Our goal was to consolidate all our votes within third parties, and we were well on our way to achieving that until the final weeks leading up to the election,” said Hudhayfah Ahmad from the official Abandon Harris Campaign.
The group had focused on holding the Biden-Harris administration accountable for the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
Harris' campaign shifted from ignoring the Arab and Muslim vote to actively alienating it. [Getty]
Polling conducted in late October by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) showed that 42% of Muslim voters favoured third-party candidate Jill Stein while 41% favoured Vice President Kamala Harris.
This was in sharp contrast to 2020 when CAIR polling revealed 71 percent of Muslim voters planned to vote for Biden.
By 2024, this crucial voter bloc had dramatically collapsed, with 98 percent of Muslims polled saying they disapproved of how President Joe Biden had handled the war in Gaza.
The Muslim vote in the US is estimated at over one million voters. They form a substantial voting bloc in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, largely concentrated in urban areas, including Detroit and Atlanta.
Stein, leader of the Green Party, who prioritised ending Israel's war on Gaza and its occupation of the West Bank, secured just over 44,000 votes in Michigan and over 600,000 nationally. Neither result was enough to prevent Harris from losing nationally or in key swing states.
In the final weeks, however, anecdotal evidence from the Abandon Harris Campaign indicated that Arab and Muslim voters may have shifted towards the Trump ticket, moving away from Stein.
Two things happened, said Ahmad, speaking to The New Arab.
“Firstly, Kamala Harris touted the endorsements of the Cheneys and began campaigning with them,” antagonising the Arab and Muslim communities.
“Then the Trump-Vance campaign ramped up their anti-war rhetoric and promised a community in deep pain and grief that they would immediately work to end the war once in office,” added Ahmad, referring to Israel’s ongoing wars on Gaza and Lebanon.
“These two events combined undermined our plans to consolidate the anti-genocide protest vote within third parties,” said Ahmad.
The aim of the campaign was to “abandon a party they had overwhelmingly supported over the last two decades and to consolidate our votes within third parties, paving a new path forward beyond the existing duopoly,” said Ahmad.
“We succeeded in the first objective but fell short in the second.”
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Voting for change
“I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars.” These words were part of Donald Trump’s victory speech. It’s a promise that Arab and Muslim communities are hoping he will fulfil.
In the lead-up to 5 November, however, there were signs that Harris' campaign shifted from ignoring the Arab and Muslim vote to actively alienating it.
The Harris campaign dispatched former President Bill Clinton to berate Muslims in Michigan for not supporting the Democratic Party. He then faced a backlash from Muslim and Arab Americans after claiming that Israel was "forced" to kill civilians in Gaza and suggesting that the country was in the Holy Land "first" - before Palestinians.
Conversely, by late September, Trump secured the backing of Amer Ghalib, the Yemeni-American Muslim mayor of Hamtramck, a small town in Michigan just outside Detroit, with a population of around 30,000, primarily Muslim.
The photo-op and endorsement also insulated Trump from renewed criticism tied to his first term.
“Many voters did migrate to Trump, especially within the Yemeni American community,” said Dawud Walid, Executive Director of the Michigan chapter of CAIR.
“They saw voting for Trump as a more effective way to send a message to the Democrats than voting third party,” said Walid, speaking to The New Arab.
Yemeni Americans are the second-largest demographic of Arabs in Dearborn, following Lebanese Americans.
“In Dearborn, Michigan, 52 percent of the votes went to Trump, which surprised me. The Yemeni community had an effective grassroots campaign despite the short timeframe,” added Walid.
The Democrats seemed to have “assumed” that Muslims had no choice but to support them, said Walid.
Former President Obama appealed to fear, addressing Muslims as if they had no choice but to support Vice President Harris, said Walid.
Polling conducted in late October by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) showed that 42% of Muslim voters favoured third-party candidate Jill Stein while 41% favoured Vice President Kamala Harris.
This was in sharp contrast to 2020 when CAIR polling revealed 71 percent of Muslim voters planned to vote for Biden.
By 2024, this crucial voter bloc had dramatically collapsed, with 98 percent of Muslims polled saying they disapproved of how President Joe Biden had handled the war in Gaza.
The Muslim vote in the US is estimated at over one million voters. They form a substantial voting bloc in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, largely concentrated in urban areas, including Detroit and Atlanta.
Stein, leader of the Green Party, who prioritised ending Israel's war on Gaza and its occupation of the West Bank, secured just over 44,000 votes in Michigan and over 600,000 nationally. Neither result was enough to prevent Harris from losing nationally or in key swing states.
In the final weeks, however, anecdotal evidence from the Abandon Harris Campaign indicated that Arab and Muslim voters may have shifted towards the Trump ticket, moving away from Stein.
Two things happened, said Ahmad, speaking to The New Arab.
“Firstly, Kamala Harris touted the endorsements of the Cheneys and began campaigning with them,” antagonising the Arab and Muslim communities.
“Then the Trump-Vance campaign ramped up their anti-war rhetoric and promised a community in deep pain and grief that they would immediately work to end the war once in office,” added Ahmad, referring to Israel’s ongoing wars on Gaza and Lebanon.
“These two events combined undermined our plans to consolidate the anti-genocide protest vote within third parties,” said Ahmad.
The aim of the campaign was to “abandon a party they had overwhelmingly supported over the last two decades and to consolidate our votes within third parties, paving a new path forward beyond the existing duopoly,” said Ahmad.
“We succeeded in the first objective but fell short in the second.”
Related
How Biden's Middle East policy helped fuel a regional war
Analysis
Giorgio Cafiero
Voting for change
“I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars.” These words were part of Donald Trump’s victory speech. It’s a promise that Arab and Muslim communities are hoping he will fulfil.
In the lead-up to 5 November, however, there were signs that Harris' campaign shifted from ignoring the Arab and Muslim vote to actively alienating it.
The Harris campaign dispatched former President Bill Clinton to berate Muslims in Michigan for not supporting the Democratic Party. He then faced a backlash from Muslim and Arab Americans after claiming that Israel was "forced" to kill civilians in Gaza and suggesting that the country was in the Holy Land "first" - before Palestinians.
Conversely, by late September, Trump secured the backing of Amer Ghalib, the Yemeni-American Muslim mayor of Hamtramck, a small town in Michigan just outside Detroit, with a population of around 30,000, primarily Muslim.
The photo-op and endorsement also insulated Trump from renewed criticism tied to his first term.
“Many voters did migrate to Trump, especially within the Yemeni American community,” said Dawud Walid, Executive Director of the Michigan chapter of CAIR.
“They saw voting for Trump as a more effective way to send a message to the Democrats than voting third party,” said Walid, speaking to The New Arab.
Yemeni Americans are the second-largest demographic of Arabs in Dearborn, following Lebanese Americans.
“In Dearborn, Michigan, 52 percent of the votes went to Trump, which surprised me. The Yemeni community had an effective grassroots campaign despite the short timeframe,” added Walid.
The Democrats seemed to have “assumed” that Muslims had no choice but to support them, said Walid.
Former President Obama appealed to fear, addressing Muslims as if they had no choice but to support Vice President Harris, said Walid.
Harris' unwillingness to even rhetorically reach out to the communities seemingly pushed at least some to strategically vote for Trump. [Getty]
Harris herself reinforced this narrative during a campaign stop in Detroit, where she responded to a protester by suggesting that refusing to vote for her would mean a desire to see Trump back in office.
“This rhetoric offended the community’s sense of honour. The Democrats’ loss was their own doing, not the fault of the Muslim community,” he added.
In contrast, Trump adjusted his rhetoric from eight years ago, which “was openly hostile towards Muslims, and he did not meet with Muslim leaders,” said Walid, adding that “he has scaled back most, though not all, of the anti-Muslim rhetoric from his previous campaign”.
While the Arab and Muslim communities rejected Harris, the shift “did not translate into significant support for Stein,” the third-party candidate widely believed to be well-positioned to absorb the vote, said Imam Tom Facchine, Research Director of Islam and Society at the Yaqeen Institute for Islamic Research.
Harris’ unwillingness to even rhetorically reach out to the communities seemingly pushed at least some to strategically vote for Trump.
“People were worried that Harris might narrowly win, so many who were considering Stein switched to Trump when polls indicated a close race,” said Facchine speaking to The New Arab.
Harris herself reinforced this narrative during a campaign stop in Detroit, where she responded to a protester by suggesting that refusing to vote for her would mean a desire to see Trump back in office.
“This rhetoric offended the community’s sense of honour. The Democrats’ loss was their own doing, not the fault of the Muslim community,” he added.
In contrast, Trump adjusted his rhetoric from eight years ago, which “was openly hostile towards Muslims, and he did not meet with Muslim leaders,” said Walid, adding that “he has scaled back most, though not all, of the anti-Muslim rhetoric from his previous campaign”.
While the Arab and Muslim communities rejected Harris, the shift “did not translate into significant support for Stein,” the third-party candidate widely believed to be well-positioned to absorb the vote, said Imam Tom Facchine, Research Director of Islam and Society at the Yaqeen Institute for Islamic Research.
Harris’ unwillingness to even rhetorically reach out to the communities seemingly pushed at least some to strategically vote for Trump.
“People were worried that Harris might narrowly win, so many who were considering Stein switched to Trump when polls indicated a close race,” said Facchine speaking to The New Arab.
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While the Arab and Muslim vote wasn’t the singular factor in Harris’ loss, the community wanted to send a message to future Democratic Party leadership that their vote should not be taken for granted.
People, especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania, many with direct ties to the Trump campaign, told Facchine of the stark contrast between the two campaigns' attitudes towards Arab and Muslim communities.
“The Trump campaign seemed engaged and willing to listen, whereas Harris’s campaign didn’t offer meaningful attention,” he said.
“In the end, Trump's actions - such as his visit to the Yemeni cafe, a significant PR move in Michigan - resonated with voters. His rhetoric about peace in the Middle East and avoiding war appealed to those hoping he would fulfil his promises, even if there was no certainty of his intentions.”
Elis Gjevori is a journalist based in Istanbul. He focuses on the Balkans, Turkey, and the Middle East
Follow him on X: @Elis_Gj
'Lebanese Americans voted for Trump because of ceasefire promise made at cafe': parliament speaker
Nabih Berri claims that US President-elect Donald Trump signed a written agreement to end Israel's war in Lebanon - in a restaurant.
The New Arab Staff
07 November, 2024
Nabih Berri claims Trump has pledged to end Israel's war on Lebanon [Getty]
Lebanon's Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri claimed on Wednesday that Lebanese Americans voted for Donald Trump due to a promise made in a café in Michigan by the victorious Republican candidate to ensure a ceasefire in Lebanon.
In an interview with Mustaqbal Web, Berri was asked about the Trump’s alleged popularity among Lebanese Americans.
“He signed a written pledge for a ceasefire in Lebanon immediately upon his victory at Hassan Abbas's restaurant,” Berri claimed.
In an effort to reach out to disaffected Arab American and, in particular, Lebanese American voters in the key swing state of Michigan, Donald Trump visited a popular Lebanese American café/restaurant in Dearborn, owned by Hassan Abbas, also known as Albert Abbas.
Abbas said publicly that he only agreed to host Trump if he agreed to supporting a ceasefire in Lebanon. This is where Berri claims Trump signed a written agreement to end Israel’s war on Lebanon.
Following this visit, the Trump campaign issued a letter to Lebanese Americans, pledging to bring "peace" to the Middle East, with a particular focus on Lebanon, while putting the blame for the ongoing wars in the region on his Democratic opponents, who have held the White House since 2020.
However, nowhere in the letter did Trump even mention Israel, let alone criticise it for its brutal wars on Gaza and Lebanon.
However, Berri agreed with Trump about blaming Biden for the wars, which he said was also part of why Lebanese Americans turned out for Trump in Michigan, saying, "It's because of Joe Biden's policy, as he stood by watching the killing of children in Gaza and Lebanon."
Berri is one of Lebanon's most powerful political figures, holding his role as Speaker of the Lebanese parliament for 22 years. He is the leader of the Shia Amal Movement, which is a close ally of Hezbollah.
Though there are no official statistics on the size of the Lebanese American vote for Trump in Dearborn and Michigan, unofficial results point to a significant wave of support for the Republican candidate.
Unofficial results released by the city of Dearborn show that Trump won 42 percent of the vote in Dearborn, compared with 36 percent for Kamala Harris and 18 percent for the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, as reported by The New York Times.
Trump comfortably defeated Democratic contender and current Vice President Harris in Tuesday's presidential election, including winning Michigan by just under 90,000 votes.
As of 2023, Dearborn is the largest city with an Arab majority in the US, with 55 percent of its 110,000 population claiming Middle Eastern or North African roots in the latest census.
Nabih Berri claims that US President-elect Donald Trump signed a written agreement to end Israel's war in Lebanon - in a restaurant.
The New Arab Staff
07 November, 2024
Nabih Berri claims Trump has pledged to end Israel's war on Lebanon [Getty]
Lebanon's Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri claimed on Wednesday that Lebanese Americans voted for Donald Trump due to a promise made in a café in Michigan by the victorious Republican candidate to ensure a ceasefire in Lebanon.
In an interview with Mustaqbal Web, Berri was asked about the Trump’s alleged popularity among Lebanese Americans.
“He signed a written pledge for a ceasefire in Lebanon immediately upon his victory at Hassan Abbas's restaurant,” Berri claimed.
In an effort to reach out to disaffected Arab American and, in particular, Lebanese American voters in the key swing state of Michigan, Donald Trump visited a popular Lebanese American café/restaurant in Dearborn, owned by Hassan Abbas, also known as Albert Abbas.
Abbas said publicly that he only agreed to host Trump if he agreed to supporting a ceasefire in Lebanon. This is where Berri claims Trump signed a written agreement to end Israel’s war on Lebanon.
Following this visit, the Trump campaign issued a letter to Lebanese Americans, pledging to bring "peace" to the Middle East, with a particular focus on Lebanon, while putting the blame for the ongoing wars in the region on his Democratic opponents, who have held the White House since 2020.
However, nowhere in the letter did Trump even mention Israel, let alone criticise it for its brutal wars on Gaza and Lebanon.
However, Berri agreed with Trump about blaming Biden for the wars, which he said was also part of why Lebanese Americans turned out for Trump in Michigan, saying, "It's because of Joe Biden's policy, as he stood by watching the killing of children in Gaza and Lebanon."
Berri is one of Lebanon's most powerful political figures, holding his role as Speaker of the Lebanese parliament for 22 years. He is the leader of the Shia Amal Movement, which is a close ally of Hezbollah.
Though there are no official statistics on the size of the Lebanese American vote for Trump in Dearborn and Michigan, unofficial results point to a significant wave of support for the Republican candidate.
Unofficial results released by the city of Dearborn show that Trump won 42 percent of the vote in Dearborn, compared with 36 percent for Kamala Harris and 18 percent for the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, as reported by The New York Times.
Trump comfortably defeated Democratic contender and current Vice President Harris in Tuesday's presidential election, including winning Michigan by just under 90,000 votes.
As of 2023, Dearborn is the largest city with an Arab majority in the US, with 55 percent of its 110,000 population claiming Middle Eastern or North African roots in the latest census.
‘Blood over humanity’: Abandon Harris coalition speaks out on Kamala's election defeat
The Abandon Harris group said Trump’s election win “didn’t have to be inevitable”, following the Biden administration's controversial pro-Israel stance on Gaza
The New Arab Staff
07 November, 2024
Hassan Abdel Salam, co-founder of the "Abandon Harris" campaign, speaks at an event with Workers Strike Back during an event endorsing Green Party candidate Jill Stein at the Bint Jebail Cultural Center in Dearborn, MI on Friday, Oct. 6, 2024 [Getty]
A coalition of Muslim and Arab-American leaders known as Abandon Harris expressed satisfaction on Wednesday over the electoral defeat of US Vice President Kamala Harris, attributing it to the Biden-Harris administration’s pro-Israel policies and inaction on securing a ceasefire to stop Israel's ongoing war on the Gaza Strip.
Posting on X, Abandon Harris said that they had repeatedly sought meetings with Harris’s campaign to discuss a ceasefire, only to be met with “ridicule, evasion, and condescension.”
In a statement, the coalition said: "A Trump presidency didn’t have to be inevitable. The Democrats had every opportunity to win this election with ease."
"But instead, they chose to betray their base, abandon the lives of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, and align themselves with some of the darkest figures in American history- like [former Vice President] Dick Cheney," the group added.
They argued that the Democrats made a deliberate choice, bearing sole responsibility for the outcome and the consequences for the country.
While Abandon Harris voiced serious concern over Trump’s past pro-Israel stance, they called on him to immediately implement an arms embargo on Israel and advocate for a permanent ceasefire in the Middle East.
Trump has historically positioned himself as a pro-Israel leader, infamously declaring in 2019 that he was "history's most pro-Israel US president."
Abandon Harris, which endorsed Green Party candidate Jill Stein in this election, promoted third-party voting as a means of elevating new voices.
Dr. Hassan Abdel Salam, director of the campaign, told independent news site Scheerpost on Tuesday that this election was “just the beginning” and expressed hope that their movement could disrupt the two-party system by presenting a "bulwark of conscience" that could ultimately influence party platforms toward more progressive policies.
"At Abandon Harris, we want policies to end genocide and torture, to bring an agenda of universal health care, an agenda to end racism in our country, an agenda for us to have economic equality," he added.
The coalition’s efforts seemed to resonate with key communities, particularly in Dearborn, Michigan, home to America’s largest Arab-American population.
Preliminary results showed Trump narrowly winning in Dearborn, a significant shift from 2020, when outgoing President Joe Biden won the area decisively.
This shift suggests that voter anger with the Biden-Harris administration's Middle East policies and Trump’s late-campaign pledge to reduce conflict there played a role in reshaping voter preferences in these communities.
The Abandon Harris group said Trump’s election win “didn’t have to be inevitable”, following the Biden administration's controversial pro-Israel stance on Gaza
The New Arab Staff
07 November, 2024
Hassan Abdel Salam, co-founder of the "Abandon Harris" campaign, speaks at an event with Workers Strike Back during an event endorsing Green Party candidate Jill Stein at the Bint Jebail Cultural Center in Dearborn, MI on Friday, Oct. 6, 2024 [Getty]
A coalition of Muslim and Arab-American leaders known as Abandon Harris expressed satisfaction on Wednesday over the electoral defeat of US Vice President Kamala Harris, attributing it to the Biden-Harris administration’s pro-Israel policies and inaction on securing a ceasefire to stop Israel's ongoing war on the Gaza Strip.
Posting on X, Abandon Harris said that they had repeatedly sought meetings with Harris’s campaign to discuss a ceasefire, only to be met with “ridicule, evasion, and condescension.”
In a statement, the coalition said: "A Trump presidency didn’t have to be inevitable. The Democrats had every opportunity to win this election with ease."
"But instead, they chose to betray their base, abandon the lives of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, and align themselves with some of the darkest figures in American history- like [former Vice President] Dick Cheney," the group added.
They argued that the Democrats made a deliberate choice, bearing sole responsibility for the outcome and the consequences for the country.
While Abandon Harris voiced serious concern over Trump’s past pro-Israel stance, they called on him to immediately implement an arms embargo on Israel and advocate for a permanent ceasefire in the Middle East.
Trump has historically positioned himself as a pro-Israel leader, infamously declaring in 2019 that he was "history's most pro-Israel US president."
Abandon Harris, which endorsed Green Party candidate Jill Stein in this election, promoted third-party voting as a means of elevating new voices.
Dr. Hassan Abdel Salam, director of the campaign, told independent news site Scheerpost on Tuesday that this election was “just the beginning” and expressed hope that their movement could disrupt the two-party system by presenting a "bulwark of conscience" that could ultimately influence party platforms toward more progressive policies.
"At Abandon Harris, we want policies to end genocide and torture, to bring an agenda of universal health care, an agenda to end racism in our country, an agenda for us to have economic equality," he added.
The coalition’s efforts seemed to resonate with key communities, particularly in Dearborn, Michigan, home to America’s largest Arab-American population.
Preliminary results showed Trump narrowly winning in Dearborn, a significant shift from 2020, when outgoing President Joe Biden won the area decisively.
This shift suggests that voter anger with the Biden-Harris administration's Middle East policies and Trump’s late-campaign pledge to reduce conflict there played a role in reshaping voter preferences in these communities.
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