SEMAFOR
Mathias Hammer
Fri, May 2, 2025
The News
Washington is sounding increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of reaching a peace deal in Ukraine, saying that it is up to Kyiv and Moscow to end the conflict as the US considers stepping away from negotiations.
American officials will no longer “fly around the world” to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said Thursday.
In an interview with Fox News, Vice President JD Vance said that the war was “not going to end any time soon,” stressing that it would be up to Moscow and Kyiv to come up with an agreement to stop the conflict.
Mathias Hammer
Fri, May 2, 2025
The News
Washington is sounding increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of reaching a peace deal in Ukraine, saying that it is up to Kyiv and Moscow to end the conflict as the US considers stepping away from negotiations.
American officials will no longer “fly around the world” to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said Thursday.
In an interview with Fox News, Vice President JD Vance said that the war was “not going to end any time soon,” stressing that it would be up to Moscow and Kyiv to come up with an agreement to stop the conflict.
SIGNALS
The future of US engagement with the conflict remains unclearSources: Bloomberg, Politico
With US officials warning that they are preparing to back away from negotiations, the future of Washington’s engagement with Kyiv and Moscow remains unclear. The US has said sanctions on Russia will remain in place and administration officials have reportedly prepared a set of options for ratcheting up economic pressure on Russia. Some officials have long believed that successfully negotiating a minerals deal with Ukraine would provide them with the political cover to increase support for Kyiv, a person familiar with the matter told Semafor. But uncertainty persists about what options US President Donald Trump will ultimately choose, and White House officials remain divided about the path forwards, Politico reported.
Russia fears minerals deal will draw Washington and Kyiv closer togetherSources: The Washington Post, Times Radio, The Moscow Times
In Moscow, fears are growing that the minerals deal signed earlier this week — as well as a successful sitdown between Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican — will spur improving ties between Kyiv and Washington. The deal “worsens the situation for Russia,” a Kremlin-connected political analyst told The Washington Post: “A key reason for tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy has been removed.” The Kremlin still has “a residual concern that Trump might actually at some point turn against them,” Russia expert Keir Giles told Times Radio. To keep courting Trump, Russian officials have reportedly floated ideas ranging from a rare earths deal to assisting Washington’s diplomatic efforts with Iran, and even a possible Trump Tower in Moscow, The Moscow Times reported.
Can Russia and Ukraine negotiate a deal without Washington?
Sources: RIA Novosti, Politico
Both Russia and Ukraine have floated the prospects of direct negotiations, raising the prospects that peace talks could continue even if Washington walks away. “America is trying to mediate,” a Kremlin spokesperson said, but “a peace agreement should be signed with Ukraine, not with America.” Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has said he is willing to negotiate directly with the Kremlin if Russia agrees to a full ceasefire, a significant shift in tone by the Ukrainian leader. “Kyiv and Moscow can do things like prisoner exchanges,” Kurt Volker, former US envoy to Ukraine told Semafor, “but not an actual peace agreement, because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wants to win, and there’s nothing Ukrainians can do to negotiate Putin away from that position. Putin actually has to feel pressure economically and on the battlefield.”
Both Russia and Ukraine have floated the prospects of direct negotiations, raising the prospects that peace talks could continue even if Washington walks away. “America is trying to mediate,” a Kremlin spokesperson said, but “a peace agreement should be signed with Ukraine, not with America.” Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has said he is willing to negotiate directly with the Kremlin if Russia agrees to a full ceasefire, a significant shift in tone by the Ukrainian leader. “Kyiv and Moscow can do things like prisoner exchanges,” Kurt Volker, former US envoy to Ukraine told Semafor, “but not an actual peace agreement, because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wants to win, and there’s nothing Ukrainians can do to negotiate Putin away from that position. Putin actually has to feel pressure economically and on the battlefield.”
US withdraws from formal Ukraine peace negotiations
Iona Cleave
Fri, May 2, 2025
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky negotiated while at Pope Francis’ funeral - AFP
The United States will no longer mediate peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia after Vladimir Putin refused to sign up to a ceasefire.
The State Department said it is changing “the methodology of how we contribute” to the talks and will no longer “fly around the world at the drop of a hat” for meetings.
“We will continue to help, but we will no longer fly around the world as mediators in meetings,” said Tammy Bruce, a spokesperson.
She added that Kyiv and Moscow must now present “concrete” proposals for ending the war and should meet directly to resolve the conflict.
Washington withdrawing from peace talks came soon after the US signed a minerals deal with Ukraine on more favourable terms for Kyiv, while Donald Trump green-lit his administration’s first round of weapons deliveries to the war-torn country.
In recent days, Mr Trump has softened his stance towards Kyiv amid his growing frustrations towards Vladimir Putin for dragging his feet over attempts to secure a ceasefire.
The Kremlin has expressed a willingness for talks with Kyiv, but this week rejected a US peace proposal because it did not grant international recognition of the territory its forces seized in Ukraine.
Ukraine has repeatedly rejected any formal recognition of Russia’s annexation of its territory, saying that Putin should not be rewarded for his aggression. Moscow’s forces control roughly one fifth of Ukraine, which includes its resource-rich industrial heartlands to the east.
US intelligence briefings overnight also suggested Mr Putin is now in a weakened position and has shifted his war goals to consolidate gains.
JD Vance, the US vice-president, admitted on Thursday that the war will not end “any time soon”.
Echoing the State Department’s comments, Mr Vance said that both sides “know what the other’s terms for peace are” and now it is “up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict”.
“It’s not going anywhere … It’s not going to end any time soon,” he told Fox News.
“For the Ukrainians, yes, of course they are angry that they were invaded, but are we going to continue to lose thousands and thousands of soldiers over a few miles of territory this or that way?” added Mr Vance, who has been critical of Kyiv throughout negotiations.
On Wednesday, the US signed a long-contested rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine, which will give American companies preferential treatment in extracting Ukraine’s vast natural resources.
Ukraine’s parliament is set to hold a vote on May 8 to ratify the accord, which is central to Kyiv’s efforts to mend ties with the White House that had frayed since Mr Trump returned to office.
Volodymyr Zelensky hailed it as a “truly equal” agreement, which is believed to have been far more favourable to Kyiv than earlier demands, and came amid Mr Trump’s recent softening towards Ukraine.
Soon after the deal was signed, the US president approved a fresh delivery of weapons to Ukraine, the first of its kind since Mr Trump took office.
Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, meanwhile told Americans that the war in Ukraine “is not our war”.
Echoing the vice-president’s statements, he said that without a breakthrough, “the president is going to have to make a decision about how much more time we’re going to dedicate to this”.
“I think we know where Ukraine is, and we know where Russia is right now ... They’re closer, but they’re still far apart,” he added in a separate interview with Fox News.
Russia’s frozen funds
Ukraine agreed immediately to the US’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire last month, while Moscow has stalled in what Kyiv’s allies warn is an attempt to improve Russia’s battlefield position.
On Friday, Europe announced it planned to seize and redistribute about €3 billion (£2.5 billion) of Russia’s frozen funds.
The money would be used to compensate Western investors after Moscow seized cash held in Russia in recent months, three people told Reuters, escalating attempts by both sides to recoup billions in funds affected by the war.
Euroclear will redistribute €3 billion from a pool of €10 billion in cash belonging to Russian entities and individuals hit by the EU sanctions that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
The EU changed its sanctions regime late last year, allowing a disbursement to Western investors.
Iona Cleave
Fri, May 2, 2025
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky negotiated while at Pope Francis’ funeral - AFP
The United States will no longer mediate peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia after Vladimir Putin refused to sign up to a ceasefire.
The State Department said it is changing “the methodology of how we contribute” to the talks and will no longer “fly around the world at the drop of a hat” for meetings.
“We will continue to help, but we will no longer fly around the world as mediators in meetings,” said Tammy Bruce, a spokesperson.
She added that Kyiv and Moscow must now present “concrete” proposals for ending the war and should meet directly to resolve the conflict.
Washington withdrawing from peace talks came soon after the US signed a minerals deal with Ukraine on more favourable terms for Kyiv, while Donald Trump green-lit his administration’s first round of weapons deliveries to the war-torn country.
In recent days, Mr Trump has softened his stance towards Kyiv amid his growing frustrations towards Vladimir Putin for dragging his feet over attempts to secure a ceasefire.
The Kremlin has expressed a willingness for talks with Kyiv, but this week rejected a US peace proposal because it did not grant international recognition of the territory its forces seized in Ukraine.
Ukraine has repeatedly rejected any formal recognition of Russia’s annexation of its territory, saying that Putin should not be rewarded for his aggression. Moscow’s forces control roughly one fifth of Ukraine, which includes its resource-rich industrial heartlands to the east.
US intelligence briefings overnight also suggested Mr Putin is now in a weakened position and has shifted his war goals to consolidate gains.
JD Vance, the US vice-president, admitted on Thursday that the war will not end “any time soon”.
Echoing the State Department’s comments, Mr Vance said that both sides “know what the other’s terms for peace are” and now it is “up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict”.
“It’s not going anywhere … It’s not going to end any time soon,” he told Fox News.
“For the Ukrainians, yes, of course they are angry that they were invaded, but are we going to continue to lose thousands and thousands of soldiers over a few miles of territory this or that way?” added Mr Vance, who has been critical of Kyiv throughout negotiations.
On Wednesday, the US signed a long-contested rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine, which will give American companies preferential treatment in extracting Ukraine’s vast natural resources.
Ukraine’s parliament is set to hold a vote on May 8 to ratify the accord, which is central to Kyiv’s efforts to mend ties with the White House that had frayed since Mr Trump returned to office.
Volodymyr Zelensky hailed it as a “truly equal” agreement, which is believed to have been far more favourable to Kyiv than earlier demands, and came amid Mr Trump’s recent softening towards Ukraine.
Soon after the deal was signed, the US president approved a fresh delivery of weapons to Ukraine, the first of its kind since Mr Trump took office.
Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, meanwhile told Americans that the war in Ukraine “is not our war”.
Echoing the vice-president’s statements, he said that without a breakthrough, “the president is going to have to make a decision about how much more time we’re going to dedicate to this”.
“I think we know where Ukraine is, and we know where Russia is right now ... They’re closer, but they’re still far apart,” he added in a separate interview with Fox News.
Russia’s frozen funds
Ukraine agreed immediately to the US’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire last month, while Moscow has stalled in what Kyiv’s allies warn is an attempt to improve Russia’s battlefield position.
On Friday, Europe announced it planned to seize and redistribute about €3 billion (£2.5 billion) of Russia’s frozen funds.
The money would be used to compensate Western investors after Moscow seized cash held in Russia in recent months, three people told Reuters, escalating attempts by both sides to recoup billions in funds affected by the war.
Euroclear will redistribute €3 billion from a pool of €10 billion in cash belonging to Russian entities and individuals hit by the EU sanctions that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
The EU changed its sanctions regime late last year, allowing a disbursement to Western investors.
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