How 'paranoid' Putin's Ukraine invasion could lead to 'accidental' nuclear crisis: military expert

Brad Reed
February 24, 2022

Vladimir Putin (Shutterstock)

Tom Nichols, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College and at the Harvard Extension School, has written a lengthy piece for The Atlantic about the potential for Russia's invasion of Ukraine to spiral into a nuclear crisis.

Nichols describes Russian President Vladimir Putin as "paranoid," although he doesn't believe that he's outright insane -- in other words, he does not expect Putin to directly attack a NATO country.

Rather, Nichols thinks the big risk is that a misstep by Russia's military could lead to an escalation that gets out of hand.

"There are countless opportunities for such errors in the chaos now overtaking Ukraine," he writes. "The Russians might shoot at NATO aircraft after misidentifying them. Or they might incorrectly believe that Russian aircraft have been attacked by NATO forces. They might suffer a misfire or a targeting error of some kind that puts Russian ordnance on NATO territory. Europe’s a crowded continent, and no place for a jumpy trigger finger, but accidents are an unavoidable part of warfare."

Nichols also raises the "frightening possibility that Putin will increase the alert status of his nuclear forces for his own reasons, leaving the Americans no choice but to raise their alert status," and thus set the stage for a nuclear standoff.


THE ATLANTIC
Read the whole analysis here.

PAYWALL

Putin waves nuclear sword in confrontation with the West

By JOHN DANISZEWSKI

In this image made from video released by the Russian Presidential Press Service, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressees the nation in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022. Russian troops launched their anticipated attack on Ukraine on Thursday, as Putin cast aside international condemnation and sanctions and warned other countries that any attempt to interfere would lead to "consequences you have never seen." (Russian Presidential Press Service via AP)

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — It has been a long time since the threat of using nuclear weapons has been brandished so openly by a world leader, but Vladimir Putin has just done it, warning in a speech that he has the weapons available if anyone dares to use military means to try to stop Russia’s takeover of Ukraine.

The threat may have been empty, a mere baring of fangs by the Russian president, but it was noticed. It kindled visions of a nightmarish outcome in which Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine could lead to a nuclear war through accident or miscalculation.

“As for military affairs, even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states,” Putin said, in his pre-invasion address early Thursday.

“Moreover, it has a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons. In this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.”

By merely suggesting a nuclear response, Putin put into play the disturbing possibility that the current fighting in Ukraine might eventually veer into an atomic confrontation between Russia and the United States.

That apocalyptic scenario is familiar to those who grew up during the Cold War, an era when American school children were told to duck and cover under their desks in case of nuclear sirens, But that danger gradually receded from the public imagination after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, when the two powers seemed to be on a glide path to disarmament, democracy and prosperity.

Before that, even young people understood the terrifying .idea behind the strategy of mutual assured destruction -- MAD for short -- a balance in nuclear capabilities that was meant to keep hands on each side off of the atomic trigger, knowing that any use of the doomsday weapons could end in the annihilation of both sides in a conflict.

And amazingly, no country has used nuclear weapons since 1945, when President Harry Truman dropped bombs on Japan in the belief that it was the surest way to end World War II quickly. It did, but at a loss of about 200,000 mostly civilian lives in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Around the world, even today, many regard that as a crime against humanity and question if it was worth it.

For a brief time after the war, the United States had a nuclear monopoly. But a few years after, the Soviet Union announced its own nuclear bomb and the two sides of the Cold War engaged in an arms race to build and develop increasingly more powerful weapons over the next few decades.

With the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, and its transformation to a hoped-for democracy under Boris Yeltsin, the United States and Russia agreed to limits on their armaments. Other post-Soviet countries like Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus voluntarily gave up the nukes on their territory after the Soviet Union dissolved.

In recent years, if nuclear weapons were spoken of at all, it was usually in the context of stopping their proliferation to countries like North Korea and Iran. (Iran denies that it wants to possess them and North Korea has been steadily but slowly building both its nuclear weapons and its delivery mechanisms. ) President Joe Biden has been aware of the danger of nuclear war between Russia and NATO since the emergence of the crisis with Ukraine. From the start, he has said NATO would not be sending troops into Ukraine because it could trigger direct fighting between the U.S. and Russia, leading to nuclear escalation and possibly World War III.

It was a tacit admission that the United States would not take on the Russians militarily over Ukraine, and instead rely on extraordinary sanctions to gradually strangle the Russian economy.

But the admission also included another truth. When it came to fighting off a Russian invasion, Ukraine remained on its own because it is a non-treaty member and does not qualify for protection under NATO’s nuclear umbrella.

If Putin tried to attack one of the America’s NATO partners, however, that would be a different situation, because the pact is fully committed to mutual defense, Biden has said.

Knowing that Biden had already taken a military response off the table, why did Putin even bother to raise it in his speech?

In part, he may have wanted to keep the West off balance, to prevent it from taking aggressive action to defend Ukraine against Putin’s blitzkrieg drive to take over the country.

But the deeper context seemed to be his great desire to show the world that Russia is a powerful nation, not to be ignored. Putin talks repeatedly about the humiliation of Russia after the Soviet collapse. By waving his nuclear sword, he echoed the bluster with which the Soviet Union had stared down the United States and earned, in his mind, respect.

After Putin’s speech, Pentagon officials offered only a muted response to his implied threat to use nuclear weapons against any country that tried to intervene in Ukraine.

A senior defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said Thursday that U.S. officials “don’t see an increased threat in that regard,” but he would not say more.

Putin’s language touches a raw nerve in the Pentagon because it highlights a longstanding concern that he might be willing to preemptively use nuclear weapons in Europe preemptively in a crisis.

This is one reason Washington has tried for years, without success, to persuade Moscow to negotiate limits on so-called tactical nuclear weapons -– those of shorter range that could be used in a regional war. Russia has a large numerical advantage in that weaponry, and some officials say the gap is growing.

Coincidentally, the Biden administration was wrapping up a Nuclear Posture Review –- a study of possible changes to U.S. nuclear forces and the policies that govern their use –- when Russia’s troop buildup near Ukraine reached a crisis stage this month. It’s unclear whether that study’s results will be reworked in light of the Russian invasion.

___

EDITOR’S NOTE — John Daniszewski, an AP vice president and former correspondent in Eastern Europe, has written about European affairs since the 1980s.

___

AP national defense writer Robert Burns contributed to this story from Washington.

'GREAT RUSSIAN' REVISIONIST HISTORY

Russian President Vladimir Putin presents rationale for Ukraine invasion

 (FULL TRANSCRIPT)

by KOSTA PAPADOPOULOS


Following is the full transcript of Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s address to the Russian people on the rationale behind his decision to recognise the independence of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway regions and send military troops.

24 February 2022

President of Russia Vladimir Putin:

Citizens of Russia, friends,

I consider it necessary today to speak again about the tragic events in Donbass and the key aspects of ensuring the security of Russia.

I will begin with what I said in my address on February 21, 2022. I spoke about our biggest concerns and worries, and about the fundamental threats which irresponsible Western politicians created for Russia consistently, rudely and unceremoniously from year to year. I am referring to the eastward expansion of NATO, which is moving its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border.

It is a fact that over the past 30 years we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.

Why is this happening? Where did this insolent manner of talking down from the height of their exceptionalism, infallibility and all-permissiveness come from? What is the explanation for this contemptuous and disdainful attitude to our interests and absolutely legitimate demands?

The answer is simple. Everything is clear and obvious. In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union grew weaker and subsequently broke apart. That experience should serve as a good lesson for us, because it has shown us that the paralysis of power and will is the first step towards complete degradation and oblivion. We lost confidence for only one moment, but it was enough to disrupt the balance of forces in the world.

As a result, the old treaties and agreements are no longer effective. Entreaties and requests do not help. Anything that does not suit the dominant state, the powers that be, is denounced as archaic, obsolete and useless. At the same time, everything it regards as useful is presented as the ultimate truth and forced on others regardless of the cost, abusively and by any means available. Those who refuse to comply are subjected to strong-arm tactics.

What I am saying now does not concerns only Russia, and Russia is not the only country that is worried about this. This has to do with the entire system of international relations, and sometimes even US allies. The collapse of the Soviet Union led to a redivision of the world, and the norms of international law that developed by that time – and the most important of them, the fundamental norms that were adopted following WWII and largely formalised its outcome – came in the way of those who declared themselves the winners of the Cold War.

Of course, practice, international relations and the rules regulating them had to take into account the changes that took place in the world and in the balance of forces. However, this should have been done professionally, smoothly, patiently, and with due regard and respect for the interests of all states and one’s own responsibility. Instead, we saw a state of euphoria created by the feeling of absolute superiority, a kind of modern absolutism, coupled with the low cultural standards and arrogance of those who formulated and pushed through decisions that suited only themselves. The situation took a different turn.

There are many examples of this. First a bloody military operation was waged against Belgrade, without the UN Security Council’s sanction but with combat aircraft and missiles used in the heart of Europe. The bombing of peaceful cities and vital infrastructure went on for several weeks. I have to recall these facts, because some Western colleagues prefer to forget them, and when we mentioned the event, they prefer to avoid speaking about international law, instead emphasising the circumstances which they interpret as they think necessary.

Then came the turn of Iraq, Libya and Syria. The illegal use of military power against Libya and the distortion of all the UN Security Council decisions on Libya ruined the state, created a huge seat of international terrorism, and pushed the country towards a humanitarian catastrophe, into the vortex of a civil war, which has continued there for years. The tragedy, which was created for hundreds of thousands and even millions of people not only in Libya but in the whole region, has led to a large-scale exodus from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe.

A similar fate was also prepared for Syria. The combat operations conducted by the Western coalition in that country without the Syrian government’s approval or UN Security Council’s sanction can only be defined as aggression and intervention.

But the example that stands apart from the above events is, of course, the invasion of Iraq without any legal grounds. They used the pretext of allegedly reliable information available in the United States about the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. To prove that allegation, the US Secretary of State held up a vial with white power, publicly, for the whole world to see, assuring the international community that it was a chemical warfare agent created in Iraq. It later turned out that all of that was a fake and a sham, and that Iraq did not have any chemical weapons. Incredible and shocking but true. We witnessed lies made at the highest state level and voiced from the high UN rostrum. As a result we see a tremendous loss in human life, damage, destruction, and a colossal upsurge of terrorism.

Overall, it appears that nearly everywhere, in many regions of the world where the United States brought its law and order, this created bloody, non-healing wounds and the curse of international terrorism and extremism. I have only mentioned the most glaring but far from only examples of disregard for international law.

This array includes promises not to expand NATO eastwards even by an inch. To reiterate: they have deceived us, or, to put it simply, they have played us. Sure, one often hears that politics is a dirty business. It could be, but it shouldn’t be as dirty as it is now, not to such an extent. This type of con-artist behaviour is contrary not only to the principles of international relations but also and above all to the generally accepted norms of morality and ethics. Where is justice and truth here? Just lies and hypocrisy all around.

Incidentally, US politicians, political scientists and journalists write and say that a veritable “empire of lies” has been created inside the United States in recent years. It is hard to disagree with this – it is really so. But one should not be modest about it: the United States is still a great country and a system-forming power. All its satellites not only humbly and obediently say yes to and parrot it at the slightest pretext but also imitate its behaviour and enthusiastically accept the rules it is offering them. Therefore, one can say with good reason and confidence that the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety, the very same “empire of lies.”

As for our country, after the disintegration of the USSR, given the entire unprecedented openness of the new, modern Russia, its readiness to work honestly with the United States and other Western partners, and its practically unilateral disarmament, they immediately tried to put the final squeeze on us, finish us off, and utterly destroy us. This is how it was in the 1990s and the early 2000s, when the so-called collective West was actively supporting separatism and gangs of mercenaries in southern Russia. What victims, what losses we had to sustain and what trials we had to go through at that time before we broke the back of international terrorism in the Caucasus! We remember this and will never forget.

Properly speaking, the attempts to use us in their own interests never ceased until quite recently: they sought to destroy our traditional values and force on us their false values that would erode us, our people from within, the attitudes they have been aggressively imposing on their countries, attitudes that are directly leading to degradation and degeneration, because they are contrary to human nature. This is not going to happen. No one has ever succeeded in doing this, nor will they succeed now.

Despite all that, in December 2021, we made yet another attempt to reach agreement with the United States and its allies on the principles of European security and NATO’s non-expansion. Our efforts were in vain. The United States has not changed its position. It does not believe it necessary to agree with Russia on a matter that is critical for us. The United States is pursuing its own objectives, while neglecting our interests.

Of course, this situation begs a question: what next, what are we to expect? If history is any guide, we know that in 1940 and early 1941 the Soviet Union went to great lengths to prevent war or at least delay its outbreak. To this end, the USSR sought not to provoke the potential aggressor until the very end by refraining or postponing the most urgent and obvious preparations it had to make to defend itself from an imminent attack. When it finally acted, it was too late.

As a result, the country was not prepared to counter the invasion by Nazi Germany, which attacked our Motherland on June 22, 1941, without declaring war. The country stopped the enemy and went on to defeat it, but this came at a tremendous cost. The attempt to appease the aggressor ahead of the Great Patriotic War proved to be a mistake which came at a high cost for our people. In the first months after the hostilities broke out, we lost vast territories of strategic importance, as well as millions of lives. We will not make this mistake the second time. We have no right to do so.

Those who aspire to global dominance have publicly designated Russia as their enemy. They did so with impunity. Make no mistake, they had no reason to act this way. It is true that they have considerable financial, scientific, technological, and military capabilities. We are aware of this and have an objective view of the economic threats we have been hearing, just as our ability to counter this brash and never-ending blackmail. Let me reiterate that we have no illusions in this regard and are extremely realistic in our assessments.

As for military affairs, even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. Moreover, it has a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons. In this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.

At the same time, technology, including in the defence sector, is changing rapidly. One day there is one leader, and tomorrow another, but a military presence in territories bordering on Russia, if we permit it to go ahead, will stay for decades to come or maybe forever, creating an ever mounting and totally unacceptable threat for Russia.

Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year. Moreover, these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. In other words, they have been toughening their position. We cannot stay idle and passively observe these developments. This would be an absolutely irresponsible thing to do for us.

Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us. Of course, the question is not about NATO itself. It merely serves as a tool of US foreign policy. The problem is that in territories adjacent to Russia, which I have to note is our historical land, a hostile “anti-Russia” is taking shape. Fully controlled from the outside, it is doing everything to attract NATO armed forces and obtain cutting-edge weapons.

For the United States and its allies, it is a policy of containing Russia, with obvious geopolitical dividends. For our country, it is a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a nation. This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty. It is the red line which we have spoken about on numerous occasions. They have crossed it.

This brings me to the situation in Donbass. We can see that the forces that staged the coup in Ukraine in 2014 have seized power, are keeping it with the help of ornamental election procedures and have abandoned the path of a peaceful conflict settlement. For eight years, for eight endless years we have been doing everything possible to settle the situation by peaceful political means. Everything was in vain.

As I said in my previous address, you cannot look without compassion at what is happening there. It became impossible to tolerate it. We had to stop that atrocity, that genocide of the millions of people who live there and who pinned their hopes on Russia, on all of us. It is their aspirations, the feelings and pain of these people that were the main motivating force behind our decision to recognise the independence of the Donbass people’s republics.

I would like to additionally emphasise the following. Focused on their own goals, the leading NATO countries are supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine, those who will never forgive the people of Crimea and Sevastopol for freely making a choice to reunite with Russia.

They will undoubtedly try to bring war to Crimea just as they have done in Donbass, to kill innocent people just as members of the punitive units of Ukrainian nationalists and Hitler’s accomplices did during the Great Patriotic War. They have also openly laid claim to several other Russian regions.

If we look at the sequence of events and the incoming reports, the showdown between Russia and these forces cannot be avoided. It is only a matter of time. They are getting ready and waiting for the right moment. Moreover, they went as far as aspire to acquire nuclear weapons. We will not let this happen.

I have already said that Russia accepted the new geopolitical reality after the dissolution of the USSR. We have been treating all new post-Soviet states with respect and will continue to act this way. We respect and will respect their sovereignty, as proven by the assistance we provided to Kazakhstan when it faced tragic events and a challenge in terms of its statehood and integrity. However, Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist while facing a permanent threat from the territory of today’s Ukraine.

Let me remind you that in 2000–2005 we used our military to push back against terrorists in the Caucasus and stood up for the integrity of our state. We preserved Russia. In 2014, we supported the people of Crimea and Sevastopol. In 2015, we used our Armed Forces to create a reliable shield that prevented terrorists from Syria from penetrating Russia. This was a matter of defending ourselves. We had no other choice.

The same is happening today. They did not leave us any other option for defending Russia and our people, other than the one we are forced to use today. In these circumstances, we have to take bold and immediate action. The people’s republics of Donbass have asked Russia for help.

In this context, in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia’s Federation Council, and in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.

The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.

It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force. At the same time, we have been hearing an increasing number of statements coming from the West that there is no need any more to abide by the documents setting forth the outcomes of World War II, as signed by the totalitarian Soviet regime. How can we respond to that?

The outcomes of World War II and the sacrifices our people had to make to defeat Nazism are sacred. This does not contradict the high values of human rights and freedoms in the reality that emerged over the post-war decades. This does not mean that nations cannot enjoy the right to self-determination, which is enshrined in Article 1 of the UN Charter.

Let me remind you that the people living in territories which are part of today’s Ukraine were not asked how they want to build their lives when the USSR was created or after World War II. Freedom guides our policy, the freedom to choose independently our future and the future of our children. We believe that all the peoples living in today’s Ukraine, anyone who want to do this, must be able to enjoy this right to make a free choice.

In this context I would like to address the citizens of Ukraine. In 2014, Russia was obliged to protect the people of Crimea and Sevastopol from those who you yourself call “nats.” The people of Crimea and Sevastopol made their choice in favour of being with their historical homeland, Russia, and we supported their choice. As I said, we could not act otherwise.

The current events have nothing to do with a desire to infringe on the interests of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. They are connected with the defending Russia from those who have taken Ukraine hostage and are trying to use it against our country and our people.

I reiterate: we are acting to defend ourselves from the threats created for us and from a worse peril than what is happening now. I am asking you, however hard this may be, to understand this and to work together with us so as to turn this tragic page as soon as possible and to move forward together, without allowing anyone to interfere in our affairs and our relations but developing them independently, so as to create favourable conditions for overcoming all these problems and to strengthen us from within as a single whole, despite the existence of state borders. I believe in this, in our common future.

I would also like to address the military personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Comrade officers,

Your fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers did not fight the Nazi occupiers and did not defend our common Motherland to allow today’s neo-Nazis to seize power in Ukraine. You swore the oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people and not to the junta, the people’s adversary which is plundering Ukraine and humiliating the Ukrainian people.

I urge you to refuse to carry out their criminal orders. I urge you to immediately lay down arms and go home. I will explain what this means: the military personnel of the Ukrainian army who do this will be able to freely leave the zone of hostilities and return to their families.

I want to emphasise again that all responsibility for the possible bloodshed will lie fully and wholly with the ruling Ukrainian regime.

I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard.

Citizens of Russia,

The culture and values, experience and traditions of our ancestors invariably provided a powerful underpinning for the wellbeing and the very existence of entire states and nations, their success and viability. Of course, this directly depends on the ability to quickly adapt to constant change, maintain social cohesion, and readiness to consolidate and summon all the available forces in order to move forward.

We always need to be strong, but this strength can take on different forms. The “empire of lies,” which I mentioned in the beginning of my speech, proceeds in its policy primarily from rough, direct force. This is when our saying on being “all brawn and no brains” applies.

We all know that having justice and truth on our side is what makes us truly strong. If this is the case, it would be hard to disagree with the fact that it is our strength and our readiness to fight that are the bedrock of independence and sovereignty and provide the necessary foundation for building a reliable future for your home, your family, and your Motherland.

Dear compatriots,

I am certain that devoted soldiers and officers of Russia’s Armed Forces will perform their duty with professionalism and courage. I have no doubt that the government institutions at all levels and specialists will work effectively to guarantee the stability of our economy, financial system and social wellbeing, and the same applies to corporate executives and the entire business community. I hope that all parliamentary parties and civil society take a consolidated, patriotic position.

At the end of the day, the future of Russia is in the hands of its multi-ethnic people, as has always been the case in our history. This means that the decisions that I made will be executed, that we will achieve the goals we have set, and reliably guarantee the security of our Motherland.

I believe in your support and the invincible force rooted in the love for our Fatherland.

—-end of transcript—

Nuclear watchdog expresses concern over Chernobyl plant

IAEA appeals for ‘maximum restraint’ to avoid any action that may put nuclear facilities at risk amid Russia-Ukraine conflict

News Service

February 25, 2022

File photo

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed “grave concern” Thursday over the situation at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant amid Russia's military intervention in Ukraine.

The IAEA “is following the situation in Ukraine with grave concern and is appealing for maximum restraint to avoid any action that may put the country’s nuclear facilities at risk,” said Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director-general of the Vienna-based agency, in a statement.

“In line with its mandate, the IAEA is closely monitoring developments in Ukraine with a special focus on the safety and security of its nuclear power plants and other nuclear-related facilities,” said the statement.

The IAEA’s statement came after Ukraine announced that Kyiv had lost control of the Chernobyl nuclear plant in the country’s north after a fierce battle with Russian forces.

Ukraine’s regulatory body had earlier informed the IAEA that it is maintaining communications with the country’s operational nuclear power plants, which it said are operating safely and securely.

“Regarding the situation at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine has informed the IAEA that ‘unidentified armed forces’ have taken control of all facilities of the State Specialized Enterprise Chernobyl NPP, located within the Exclusion Zone,” the statement added.

According to the statement, the Ukraine regulatory body said there had been no casualties or destruction at the industrial site.

Grossi highlighted that it is of “vital importance that the safe and secure operations of the nuclear facilities in that zone should not be affected or disrupted in any way.”

Recalling a 2009 decision adopted by the IAEA, he said “any armed attack on and threat against nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes constitutes a violation of the principles of the United Nations Charter, international law and the Statute of the Agency.”

On Thursday, the US condemned reports that Russian forces had taken staff of the Chernobyl nuclear waste storage facility in Ukraine hostage and called for their release.

In 1986, an accident known as the world's worst nuclear disaster occurred at the fourth reactor in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, located 16 kilometers (10 miles) from the city of Pripyat -- which was built in the 1970s to house workers at the plant -- in the north of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

Russian troops enter Kyiv after taking control of Chernobyl nuclear power plant, says Ukrainian President

India Today Web Desk Kyiv

February 25, 2022 


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy holds a joint news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Kyiv, Ukraine on February 23, 2022. (REUTERS)

Russian troops are closing in on the seat of Ukrainian power after taking control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday.

Zelenskyy also warned that the Russian armed forces would seize Kyiv within 96 hours, bringing a 'new Iron Curtain' down on Europe, the Daily Mail reported.

Earlier in the day, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal had said that the Chernobyl exclusion zone and all the structures of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant have been captured by the Russian armed groups.

Some Russian military massed in the Chernobyl "exclusion zone" before crossing into Ukraine early on Thursday, a Russian security source had said, adding that Russia wants to control the Chernobyl nuclear reactor to signal NATO not to interfere militarily.

Russia's defense ministry also confirmed it's in full control of Chernobyl, saying that radiation levels are normal, BNO news reported.

The nuclear plant - the site of the world's worst nuclear accident - lies 130 kilometers north of Kyiv, Ukraine's capital city.

On Thursday, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry tweeted saying that a Russian attack on Ukraine could “cause another ecological disaster.”

Amid Russian military operations, the Ukrainian President is creating an anti-Russia coalition against President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, the Ukranian army provided 10,000 assault rifles to locals to defend the country, Kyiv media reported on Friday.

CNN reporter explains the likely reason Russia wants to seize control of Chernobyl site

Matthew Chapman

RAW STORY
February 24, 2022

‘We have a chance to show the truth’:

 Inside Chernobyl's 'death zone' 30 years later

On Thursday's edition of CNN's "The Lead," correspondent Matthew Chance explained the likely reason why Russian forces are moving on the site of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant — the location of the worst civilian nuclear disaster in history.

"Do we have any idea why Russia might want control of Chernobyl?" asked anchor Jake Tapper. "Is it just another piece of territory, or is there something more to it than that?"

"I've been they thinking about that a little bit and it's difficult to say. But the obvious answer is the geographical location of it," said Chance. "It's not far from Kyiv, but it's also on the border of Belarus, so it's a bit of open territory which even though it's contaminated terribly of course still with radioactive material, it is territory that gives access to Ukraine from the north, from Belarus. There was also a lot of speculation in the Russian media particularly before this invasion happened that Chernobyl could be a potentially dangerous place where an ecological disaster could be sparked."

"Ukrainians have been expressing their concern about that as well," continued Chance. "That's why I said it was so terrifying that it's a potentially dangerous military confrontation around that nuclear reactor, which is currently housed in a sarcophagus made out of concrete to try to limit any further damage that could be caused by it. Of course, if it does become the focus of a strong military confrontation between these two armies, that could kick up all sorts of horrific radioactive material and, you know, cause that massive catastrophe to repeat itself all over again. I think probably it's fair to say neither side wants that."

Watch below:
Matthew Chance explains why Russia is seizing the Chernobyl site

www.youtube.com

Chernobyl no-go zone targeted as Russia invades Ukraine

By JIM HEINTZ

1 of 6

 A Soviet-era top secret object Duga, an over-the-horizon radar system once used as part of the Soviet missile defense early-warning radar network, seen behind a radioactivity sign in Chernobyl, Ukraine, on Nov. 22, 2018. Among the most worrying developments on an already shocking day, as Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, was warfare at the Chernobyl nuclear plant, where radioactivity is still leaking from history's worst nuclear disaster 36 years ago. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — It was among the most worrying developments on an already shocking day, as Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday: warfare at the Chernobyl nuclear plant, where radioactivity is still leaking from history’s worst nuclear disaster 36 years ago.

Russian forces took control over the site after a fierce battle with Ukrainian national guards protecting the decommissioned plant, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told The Associated Press. The condition of the plant’s facilities, a confinement shelter and a repository for nuclear waste is unknown, he said.

An official familiar with current assessments said Russian shelling hit a radioactive waste repository at Chernobyl, and an increase in radiation levels was reported. The increase could not be immediately corroborated.

A senior American intelligence official said the U.S. believes Russian forces at Chernobyl were aiming to push to Kyiv, about 130 kilometers (80 miles) south of the plant, to try to link with other Russian forces throughout Ukraine. The officials were not authorized to be publicly named discussing the sensitive matter.

The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, a 2,600-square-kilometer (1,000-square-mile) zone of forest surrounding the shuttered plant, lies between the Belarus-Ukraine border and the Ukrainian capital.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian officers fought to defend it, “so that the tragedy of 1986 will not be repeated.” He called it a “declaration of war against the whole of Europe.”

Adviser Podolyak said that after an “absolutely senseless attack ... it is impossible to say that the Chernobyl nuclear power plant is safe.” He warned that Russian authorities could blame Ukraine for damage to the site or stage provocations from there.

Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser Anton Herashenko warned that any attack on the waste repository could send radioactive dust over “the territory of Ukraine, Belarus and countries of the EU.”

Russian officials, who have revealed little of their operations in Ukraine and not revealed their goals, did not publicly comment on the battle.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said it is following the situation in Ukraine “with grave concern” and appealed for maximum restraint to avoid any action that may put Ukraine’s nuclear facilities at risk.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, the IAEA’s general director, said Ukraine has informed the Vienna-based agency that ”unidentified armed forces” have taken control of all facilities at the plant and that there had been no casualties or destruction at the industrial site. Grossi said it is “of vital importance that the safe and secure operations of the nuclear facilities in that zone should not be affected or disrupted in any way.″

Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington, said, “I can’t imagine how it would be in Russia’s interest to allow any facilities at Chernobyl to be damaged.”

In an interview, Lyman said he is most worried about spent fuel stored at the site, which has not been active since 2000. If the power to cooling pumps is disrupted or fuel-storage tanks are damaged, the results could be catastrophic, he said.

Reactor No. 4 at the power plant exploded and caught fire deep in the night on April 26, 1986, shattering the building and spewing radioactive material high into the sky.

Soviet authorities made the catastrophe even worse by failing to tell the public what had happened, angering European governments and the Soviet people. The 2 million residents of Kyiv weren’t informed despite the fallout danger, and the world learned of the disaster only after heightened radiation was detected in Sweden.

The building containing the exploded reactor was covered in 2017 by an enormous shelter aimed at containing radiation still leaking from the accident. Robots inside the shelter work to dismantle the destroyed reactor and gather up the radioactive waste.

It’s expected to take until 2064 to finish dismantling the reactors. Ukraine decided to use the deserted zone as the site for its centralized storage facility for spent fuel from the country’s other remaining nuclear power plants.

Germany’s vice chancellor and economy minister, Robert Habeck, told The Associated Press that Russia would not need to obtain nuclear material from Chernobyl if it wanted to use it for any purpose, because it has enough such material of its own.

___

Associated Press writers Nomaan Merchant and Matthew Daly in Washington, James LaPorta in Boca Raton, Florida, Angela Charlton in Paris and Frank Jordans in Berlin contributed.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CHERNOBYL 

COLLATERAL DAMAGE

Turkish-owned vessel hit by bomb in Black Sea

No casualties reported after bomb hits Marshall Islands-flagged Yasa Jupiter off Odessa's coast, says Turkish authority

News Service 

February 25, 2022


A Turkish-owned ship sailing in the Black Sea was hit by a bomb off the coast of Ukraine’s port city of Odessa, Turkish authorities said on Thursday.

According to Turkiye’s Directorate General of Maritime Affairs, there were no casualties in the incident, which came after Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine early on Thursday.

The Marshall Islands-flagged and Turkish-owned Yasa Jupiter did not send out any request for help and was safely heading toward Romanian territorial waters, it added.

#CYBERWAR

Cypriot IT company denies links to malware found before Russian invasion

by GCT


On February 23rd, the threat intelligence community began observing a new wiper malware sample circulating in Ukrainian organizations.

Our analysis shows a signed driver is being used to deploy a wiper that targets Windows devices, manipulating the MBR resulting in subsequent boot failure.

This blog includes the technical details of the wiper, dubbed HermeticWiper, and includes IOCs to allow organisations to stay protected from this attack.

This sample is actively being used against Ukrainian organizations, and this blog will be updated as more information becomes available.

A 24-year-old videogame designer who runs his small business out of a home next to an old Greek orthodox Cypriot church in a quiet suburb of Nicosia now finds himself involved in a global crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Polis Trachonitis’ firm, Hermetica Digital Ltd, has been implicated by US researchers in a data-shredding cyber attack that hit hundreds of computers in Ukraine, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Discovered on Wednesday night just hours before Russian troops rolled into Ukraine, the cyber attack was widely seen as the opening salvo of Moscow’s invasion.

The malware had been signed using a digital certificate with Hermetica Digital’s name on it, according to the researchers, some of whom have started calling the malicious code “HermeticWiper” because of the connection.

Trachonitis told Reuters he had nothing to do with the attack. He said he never sought a digital certificate and had no idea one had been issued to his firm.

“I’m just a Cypriot guy .. I have no link to Russia.”

Ukraine calls on hackers to help cyber defence against Russia

Requests for volunteers appeared on hacker forums by cybersecurity companies who were contacted by the Ukrainian government to help defend essential infrastructure from Russian forces.

Hacker volunteers would be divided into defensive and offensive cyber units. (AP Archive)

The government of Ukraine has been asking for volunteers from the country's hacker underground to help defend critical infrastructure and conduct cyber spying missions against Russian troops.

As Russian forces attacked cities across Ukraine, according to two people involved in the project, requests for volunteers began to appear on hacker forums on Thursday morning, as many residents fled the capital Kiev.

"Ukrainian cybercommunity! It's time to get involved in the cyber defence of our country," the post read, asking hackers and cybersecurity experts to submit an application via Google docs.

Yegor Aushev, the co-founder of a cybersecurity company in Kiev, told Reuters news agency that he wrote the post at the request of a senior Defense Ministry official who contacted him on Thursday.

The effort to build a cyber military force is coming late in the game, Aushev acknowledged.

Aushev said the volunteers would be divided into defensive and offensive cyber units.

The defensive unit would be employed to defend infrastructures such as power plants and water systems.

The offensive volunteer unit Aushev said he is organising would help Ukraine's military conduct digital espionage operations against invading Russian forces.

READ MORE: Russia-Ukraine crisis: 'It was 5 in the morning and we were under attack'

Cyber army

Reached late Thursday night in Ukraine, Aushev said he already had received hundreds of applicants and was going to begin vetting to ensure that none of them were Russian agents.

"We have an army inside our country," Aushev said.

Another person directly involved in the effort confirmed that the request came from the Defense Ministry but ministry representatives did not respond to a request for comment.

On Wednesday, a newly discovered piece of destructive software was found circulating in Ukraine, hitting hundreds of computers, according to researchers at the cybersecurity firm ESET.

Suspicion fell on Russia, which has repeatedly been accused of hacks against Ukraine and other countries.

The victims included government agencies and a financial institution, Reuters previously reported.

Russia has denied the allegations.

In a 2015 cyberattack, widely attributed to Russian state hackers, 225,000 Ukrainians lost electricity.

 

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UN warns of 'devastating' humanitarian consequences to Ukraine attack

UKRAINE: The Greek who became viral after calmly broadcasting developments in Kyiv

(VIDEO) by ATHENS BUREAU


The semiology of situation testifies to the vortex of dramatic geopolitical developments as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, and yet, a Greek managed to become viral amongst all this.

Independence Square in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv is under siege as the city has been put under a state of emergency.

The sirens that sound in the early morning in the city betray the prevailing instability, as seen in the video by Greek expatriate Tassos Tsiamis who lives in Kyiv.

However, he appears cool in the centre of the capital and tries not to panic when he hears the “drums” of war.



The Greek, who lives permanently in Kyiv, went viral thanks to the calm with which he transmitted the events.



The fact that the Ukrainian capital is on a dry threshold can be seen from the first seconds you watch videos of the area.

Roads are deserted, people – as is the case in emergencies – are called to go to safety and the fear is palpable.

The atmosphere in Kyiv was dark and heavy after the first bombs sounded, signaling a state of generalised conflict.

In a state of utter insecurity, the Ukrainian people fear for every minute that passes as dozens are killed, among them civilians.

At the same time, the Kyiv airport is under occupation while the military intelligence building is on fire.

After the dramatic sermon of Vladimir Putin, which gave the green light for war, Russian military boots sound not only in the east of Ukraine, but even in the north of the country.

The West is watching developments with apprehension, has put a strong package of sanctions on the table, and its leaders are engaging in talks that testify to the diplomatic fever that has peaked.

In a move aimed at boosting a sense of patriotic conscience, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, calls on the citizens of his country not to be left with folded arms and to throw themselves into a battle.

The agony of the 100,000+ Greeks of Ukraine

by GUEST CONTRIBUTOR


Between the hammer and the anvil are the 100,000 Greeks of Ukraine, who are suffering again since after the mutilation they suffered in 2014, and are now called to face the rapid developments that are taking place since Vladimir Putin’s speech.

The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has already divided Hellenism into three as the Greeks of Ukraine have a different political position, depending on where they are, and not only.

Officially, whether they agree or not, they express the position of Ukraine but also of Greece – which naturally follows the position of the West.

Many appear willing to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity if requested.

In the Donbass region, which Putin recognised as ‘independent’ a few hours ago, some Greeks are in favour of joining Russia or in favour of regional autonomy.

Of course, it is completely impossible to know whether these views are expressed under the fear of the pro-Russian separatists.

The Greek element of Ukraine exceeds 100,000 Greeks at the moment.

In particular, in Eastern Ukraine, a visitor sees hundreds of shops and houses with Greek flags – many streets have Greek names.

They have a love for Greece, although many have never visited, it is difficult to describe.

The presence of the Greeks in Ukraine begins in antiquity and continued in Byzantium.

The Greeks founded Mariupol, and gave it the name after the Virgin Mary.

From the 18th century, the Greek element grows in language schools, clubs, theatres and newspapers.

The university has a Chair of Greek Language.



At the same time, the Greek villages in the area exceed 40, while the Friendly Society, which will play an important role in the course of the Greek Revolution, was founded in Odessa.

The first blow to the Hellenism of the region came in 1917, with the Bolshevik revolution, while the second was during the Stalin period with thousands of persecutions and executions, especially in 1937-1938.

The recovery of the Greek element began with the fall of the Soviet Union,

Today in the schools, but also in the Greek hospital of the area that serves the villages around Mariupol, there are instructions in case of bombings.

Young people of Greek origin in Mariupol have been facing the threat of war for years, a uncertainty that has devastated the region’s economy.

The city hall was leveled in 2014 and remains a ruin that reminds the visitor of the possibility of a generalised conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

In the current emergency situation, many Ukrainian Greeks who immigrated to Ukraine in recent decades have moved further west, as early as 2014.

Many have since been trapped in the autonomous regions or Crimea and have had no choice in the new conditions, while the benefits and higher pensions promised by Putin served as a lure and complacency for the local population.

With the resurgence of the crisis, some company executives and seconded Greek government employees, such as teachers, have returned to Greece in recent weeks, although the number is relatively small.

The vast majority do not intend to move – this happens for a number of reasons.

Initially, many of them have never come to our homeland, especially young people, even though they are of Greek origin.



Others do not speak our language and feel insecure as they say.

Most, because there was no need, do not have Greek citizenship or Greek passports, a process that is quite time consuming and requires many months and special examinations.

It is worth emphasising how the vast majority of Greeks have roots in the region for centuries that go beyond even the very establishment of the Greek state.

So, it seems extremely difficult for them to leave their property and their homes in a generalised conflict and they prefer to resort to shelters, rather than come to Greece.

The attitude of the Greek government was lightning fast, after the Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikos Dendias visited the region and stressed in his meeting with his Russian counterpart, the need to preserve the security of the Greek community.

At the same time, special plans have been drafted for the region, while all scenarios for the Hellenism of the region were re-examined.

What has surprised the Greek minority is the fact that Greece is the only country that increases its presence in the region, while other countries have already diplomatically left eastern Ukraine, or even the entire country.

A few days ago, Greece appointed a Consul General in Mariupol, accompanied by our former Ambassador to Ukraine, while increasing the diplomatic staff.

This symbolised the decision of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias to strengthen Greece in the region and solidarity with the Greek community.

While all the others leave, Greece is strengthened and stands by the Greek Diaspora.

* Nikos Theodoropoulos is an economist, Head of Diaspora Affairs for the ruling New Democracy and was recently in Ukraine.

READ MORE: Ukraine does not consider Greeks to be indigenous to the country.

CANADA: Greek Masterpieces on display at Royal Ontario Museum

by KOSTA PAPADOPOULOS


Visitors to the Royal Ontario Museum in Canada will now have the rare opportunity from March 12, 2022 to view Greek masterpieces on loan from the Acropolis museum in Athens.

The exhibition “Kore 670” — a gift to a goddess, will display one of the best-preserved and most stunningly beautiful Kore statues from the legendary citadel of the Acropolis of Athens. This is a unique opportunity to see one of the world’s great ancient sculptures in the heart of downtown Toronto and at ROM only until September 25, 2022.

Celebrating 80 years of Canada-Greece relations, this exceptional marble sculpture is on loan to ROM as part of an exchange of iconic objects with the Acropolis Museum in Athens, Greece, with ROM sending two treasured vases from the Museum’s Greek collections for display at the Acropolis Museum from June 20 to January 8, 2023.

This magnificent work of art has left Greece only a very few times in its 2,500-year history. With Kore 670’s exclusive presentation in Toronto, visitors can enjoy and appreciate this unique icon of Hellenic art for the short time it is here.

This Kore, or figure of a maiden, created between 520-510 BCE, is considered one of the most important and beautiful of the sculptures from the Acropolis appreciated for its fine detail and preservation. In many places, the statue retains remnants of its once colourfully painted figure, which have largely been worn away by time and the elements. This sculpture offers visitors a portal into the history and beauty of ancient Greek art, the tumultuous history of the Acropolis and the birthplace of democracy, and an incredible story of discovery.

Kore 670 (Kore is Greek for girl) was a gift to the goddess Athena, daughter of Zeus. The many Kore, that in ancient times adorned the Acropolis of Athens, represent some of the most iconic images in Greek culture and civilization. In the centuries that passed since the destruction of Athens and the Acropolis in 480 BCE, Kore 670 and 13 other Korai were re-discovered in 1886 when archaeologists were excavating the site.

This installation also invites audiences to re-examine our understanding of white marble sculptures and the appeal of colour in the Archaic Age. Unpainted marble has been accepted for centuries as the original and intended appearance of statues. In fact, these sculptures were initially overlaid and adorned with vibrant colours and a Greek sculpture was never thought to be complete until it was painted. The bright hues of Kore 670 have decomposed over time, but the remaining traces on this sculpture highlights how colourful art was in antiquity.

This ROM installation is sponsored by the Hellenic Heritage Foundation of Canada (HHF) in recognition of the anniversary of Canada-Greece relations. A podcast produced by HHF will feature a conversation about Kore 670 and its significance to Greek culture. The podcast will be available for listening on the HHF website, ROM’s Kore 670 webpage or via your favourite podcast provider.

ROM Learning is offering resources and activities in support of this presentation. To highlight how colour was an integral part of ancient Greek sculpture, there will be an eight-page Colours of Kore Discovery Book, as well as a Gallery Trail for classrooms and a Virtual Tour of the Kore 670 installation and other ROM galleries made available for audiences.

ROM holds Canada’s foremost and comprehensive museum collection of ancient Greek objects consisting of some 7,000 objects, representing one of the largest collections of Greek art in North America, with objects on display in the Gallery of Greece and the Gallery of the Bronze Age Aegean on level 3 of the Museum.

Philippines’s Mandatory SIM Card Registration Threatens Privacy and Free Speech

Opponents claim that the new law could become “a potent tool for mass surveillance and authoritarianism.”

By Mong Palatino
February 25, 2022

Credit: Depositphotos


The Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) Card Registration Act, ratified recently by the Philippine House of Representatives and the Senate, is now awaiting the signature of President Rodrigo Duterte amid criticisms that it could be used to undermine the privacy and civil liberties of citizens.

If passed into law, the Act will require the registration of SIM cards prior to their use and activation. The country has more than 120 million total mobile subscribers. Around 95 percent of them use prepaid SIM cards.

The measure will also mandate social media companies to register the real names and phone numbers of individuals creating accounts on their platforms.

Legislators said the Act will “deter the proliferation of SIM card, internet or electronic communication-aided crimes.” In 2020 alone, the police recorded 6,110 cybercrime offenses such as online scams, computer-related identity theft, and phishing. Private telecommunication companies have monitored a higher number of cybercrimes. Globe Telecom, for example, has blocked a total of 1.15 billion scam and spam messages, around 7,000 mobile numbers linked to scammers, and 2,000 unofficial social media accounts and phishing sites in 2021.

Senator Win Gatchalian, one of the authors of the Act, is confident that it will boost business confidence because authorities have an additional legal tool against online fraudsters who use unregistered mobile numbers. “This is a very timely development considering that there has been an unprecedented rise in e-commerce and digital services and this would help promote consumer and business confidence as there will now be a layer of protection against fraudsters,” he said.

Legislators also invoked the same argument when Congress passed the Anti-Cybercrime Act in 2012.

But some experts have pointed out that it is not a guarantee that SIM card registration will deter crimes based on the experience of other countries. The Act also cannot penalize existing accounts with fictitious names and those created in other countries.

Opposition Senator Franklin Drilon said anonymity has made the internet an unsafe space for women and children. “Online bullies hide behind anonymity. Trolls thrive in anonymity. Ask the parents of the kids bullied online before you oppose the measure. All we want here is to address the anonymity in the internet and social media and make a safe cyberspace for our people,” he added.

Drilon, a veteran lawmaker and lawyer, should be aware that the Act has instantly criminalized trolling, hate speech, and the spread of disinformation even if these actions are not sufficiently defined in the proposed law. Trolling is now listed in the same category of crimes such as bank fraud, text scams, and terrorism.

It is unfortunate that legislators are equating anonymity with some nefarious acts instead of acknowledging that this has also allowed many individuals to express themselves without fear of reprisal.

An online petition against the Act explained how mandatory registration will affect and disrupt many lives. “It robs us of the additional security that anonymity gives us, especially for celebrities, public figures, influencers, activists, human rights defenders, victims of domestic abuse and violence against women and children, and even individuals who simply wish to compartmentalize their personal lives from the rest of their activities.”

The Act will make it more difficult for investigative journalists to perform their work. Whistleblowers might be at risk especially if they divulge information involving authorities. Children in online gaming communities might face threats if they are required to share their personal information. Transgender people are right in expressing concern about how this Act will force them to adopt their “dead name” to avoid imprisonment.

Legislators who often extol the virtues of heroes should remember that the founders of the Philippine Republic used pen names and aliases when they challenged the colonial regime. It is ironic that adopting the same tactics today on the internet and when using mobile phones could soon be considered a crime.

The Act is expected to be signed into law before the end of Duterte’s term in June. It is also under the Duterte presidency when the amended Anti-Terrorism Act was passed, despite massive protests against this legislation. In an online petition, concerned citizens and groups are worried that both the SIM Card Registration Act and the Anti-Terrorism Act will be used to further erode the country’s shrinking civic space for freedom of expression.

“In the wrong hands, it could serve as a potent tool for mass surveillance and authoritarianism, especially when coupled with other draconian measures introduced in recent years, such as the controversial Anti-Terror Law.”



CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR
Mong Palatino served for two terms in the House of Representatives in the Philippines representing the youth sector.

Philippine bishops, protesters: no return to Marcos-style rule


By AFP
Published February 25, 2022


Protesters take to the streets of Manila on the anniversary of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos' ouster - Copyright AFP Ted ALJIBE

Protesters took to the streets of the Philippine capital on Friday as church leaders called on the faithful to prevent a return to the abuses of the Ferdinand Marcos era on the anniversary of his ouster and months before a presidential election in which his son is heavily favoured.

Police in the Catholic-majority country said about 1,100 mostly young protesters gathered on the same Manila highway where millions assembled 36 years ago to end the dictator’s two-decade rule.

“Bring back the loot, not the thief”, they chanted, hoisting a streamer that read: “No to MarcosDuterte2022”. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Junior is running alongside vice-presidential hopeful Sara Duterte, daughter of President Rodrigo Duterte.

Marcos, 64, has sought to steer public discourse away from the torture, killings and embezzlement of state funds that took place under his father’s rule, instead focusing on the nation’s need to dig itself out from under the coronavirus pandemic.

The capital’s Epifanio de los Santos Avenue was the site of four days of peaceful street protests in 1986 that followed the elder Marcos being accused of stealing the vote from rival Corazon Aquino in a snap presidential election.

Catholic bishops at the time mustered millions of people to protect a small group of military rebels who had holed up at an army base after Marcos uncovered their coup attempt. The protests eventually forced the Marcos family into US exile.

“We don’t want a repeat (of a Marcos presidency), because the Marcoses have been proven corrupt,” Jandeil Roperos, 25, one of Friday’s protesters, told AFP.

– No ‘golden age’ –

On Friday, bishops were again at the fore of the anti-Marcos movement.

In a pastoral letter, the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines said it was the duty of voters to reject “historical revisionism” they say seeks to whitewash the abuses committed under the elder Marcos.

Polls show the predominantly young electorate is set to send the former dictator’s namesake back to the Malacanang presidential palace.

“I think it is obvious from our tone we do not want the dark age of martial law repeated,” the 86-member group’s president, Bishop Pablo David, told reporters when asked if the document alluded to Bongbong.

“People have no business saying that was a golden age because that is a lie.”

While stressing it was not the bishops’ intent to choose for the people, the letter said it was the duty of Catholics “to use their free vote to further the common good”.

“But we are appalled by the blatant and subtle distortion, manipulation, cover-up, repression and abuse of the truth,” it said, including the proliferation of fake news to create an alternative narrative of the country’s history.

The Marcos camp did not reply to AFP’s request for comment.

After he died in Hawaii in 1989, Marcos’ heirs were allowed to return to the Philippines in the 1990s. Bongbong has since been elected governor of his father’s home province, congressman and senator.

50 years apart: Philippine activist fights dictator then son

By JIM GOMEZ and JOEAL CALUPITAN

Human rights activist Loretta Rosales sits behind a photo, a grainy military mugshot of her taken after she got arrested in 1976, at her house in Manila, Philippines on Feb. 23, 2022. Memories of the “People Power” revolt by millions of Filipinos who helped overthrow Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos 36 years ago are bittersweet for Rosales, who opposed him as an activist and was arrested and tortured by his forces before his downfall. Her battle, however, has gone full circle. The euphoria over that triumph of democracy in Asia has faded through the years and now looks upended with the late dictator’s son and namesake a leading candidate in the May 9 presidential election. 

(AP Photo/Joeal Calupitan)


MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Memories of the “People Power” revolt by millions of Filipinos who helped overthrow Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos 36 years ago are bittersweet for Loretta Rosales, who opposed him as an activist and was arrested and tortured by his forces before his downfall.

Her battle has gone full circle.

The euphoria over that triumph of democracy in Asia has faded through the years and now looks upended with the late dictator’s son and namesake a leading candidate in the May 9 presidential election. Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s rise loomed large as the Southeast Asian nation marked the anniversary Friday of the army-backed uprising that toppled Marcos and became a harbinger of change in authoritarian regimes worldwide.

“It puzzles and dismays me,” said Rosales, who remains a pro-democracy activist at age 82 and is now raising alarms over Marcos Jr. She expressed fears he will take after his father and seek to cover up his crimes and failures.

Rosales was among human rights victims who asked the Commission on Elections to disqualify Marcos Jr. from the presidential race because of a past tax conviction they say showed “moral turpitude” that should bar him from holding public office.

The commission dismissed her petition and five others. All are now on appeal, and an additional one remains pending but will likely also be rejected.

“This is history repeating itself,” Rosales said in an interview. “This is round two.”

 Ferdinand Marcos, with his wife Imelda at his side and Ferdinand Marcos Jr., far right, gestures strongly from the balcony of Malacanang Palace on Feb. 25, 1986 in Manila, just after taking the oath of office as president of the Philippines. Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s rise loomed large as the Southeast Asian nation marked the anniversary Friday, Feb. 25, 2022 of the army-backed uprising that toppled Marcos and became a harbinger of change in authoritarian regimes worldwide. (AP Photo/Alberto Marquez, File)

Marcos Jr., 64, who has served as a governor, congressman and senator, leads popularity surveys in the presidential race by a large margin despite his family’s history. He has called the allegations against his father “lies” and his campaign steadfastly focuses on a call for unity while staying away from past controversies.

The four-day revolt that forced the elder Marcos from power in 1986 unfolded when then-defense chief Juan Ponce Enrile and his forces withdrew their support from him after their coup plot against the ailing leader was uncovered. Later joined by a top general, Fidel Ramos, they barricaded themselves in two military camps along the main EDSA highway in the capital, where a Roman Catholic leader summoned Filipinos to bring food and support the mutinous troops.

A mammoth crowd turned up and served as a human shield for the defectors. Rosary-clutching nuns, priests and civilians kneeled in front of them and stopped tanks deployed to crush the largely peaceful uprising.

The elder Marcos died in 1989 while in exile in Hawaii without admitting any wrongdoing, including accusations that he, his family and cronies amassed an estimated $5 billion to $10 billion while he was in power. A Hawaii court later found him liable for human rights violations and awarded $2 billion from his estate to compensate more than 9,000 Filipinos led by Rosales who filed a lawsuit against him for torture, extrajudicial killings, incarceration and disappearances.

After the Marcos family returned from exile in the early 1990s, Marcos Jr. decided to run for Congress to protect his family from being hounded politically, he told broadcast journalist Korina Sanchez-Roxas in a recent interview.

In Rosales’s suburban Manila home, a wall is filled with mementos of a life of activism, including as a member of the House of Representatives for nine years and later as head of the Commission on Human Rights until 2015. The only reminder of the worst moments is a grainy military mugshot showing her with a tense smile and carrying a nameplate with the scribbled date 4 Aug 76. That was when she and five other anti-Marcos activists were arrested by military agents while meeting in a restaurant four years after Marcos placed the Philippines under martial law in 1972.

 A Filipino youth slashes an oil painting of Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos with a stick as looters stormed the Presidential Palace in Manila, Philippines on Feb. 25, 1986. Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s rise loomed large as the Southeast Asian nation marked the anniversary Friday, Feb. 25, 2022 of the army-backed uprising that toppled Marcos and became a harbinger of change in authoritarian regimes worldwide. (AP Photo/Mari Vargas, File)

“I was smiling, that was before the torture,” Rosales said.

For about two days in a military hideout, her captors blindfolded her and clipped wires on her fingers and toes and ran streams of electricity that caused her body to convulse wildly, she said. Her mouth was gagged so she could not scream. At other times, she said she was subjected to Russian roulette, in which a captor pointed a revolver to her head and pulled the trigger several times to force her to inform on other activists. “There was sexual molestation,” said Rosales, who was eventually freed.

Nearly four decades after democracy was restored, the Philippines remains mired in poverty, corruption, inequality, long-running communist and Muslim insurgencies and political divisions. Pre-pandemic economic growth mostly benefited the wealthiest families and failed to lift millions from desperation. At the height of the pandemic, unemployment and hunger worsened to record levels.

“Ordinary Filipinos look at these realities and they question whether this is really what they want,” Manila-based academic and analyst Richard Heydarian said, adding that disenchantment over the failures of liberal reformist politics in the post-dictatorship era steadily grew. “This is where Marcos came in and said we are the ultimate alternative.”

Many Filipinos remember relative peace and quiet under martial law in the 1970s and well as lavish infrastructure projects, and Marcos Jr. has promised increased prosperity and peace.

His current strong following did not emerge overnight. As a vice presidential candidate in 2016, he won more than 14 million votes, losing to Leni Robredo by only 263,000 votes.

Robredo, the leading liberal opposition candidate in the presidential race, ranks second in most popularity polls but is far behind Marcos Jr. three months before the vote.

In a measure of how history has shifted, Enrile, now 98, has endorsed Marcos Jr.’s candidacy. Ex-army Col. Gregorio Honasan, a key leader of the coup plot against the elder Marcos, has been adopted by Marcos Jr. in his senatorial slate. Honasan, 73, said he has not decided whom to support among the presidential aspirants but that the choice of the people should be respected.

“If the Filipino people decide to have a collective national amnesia and say, `let’s give another Marcos a chance,’ who are we to question that?” Honasan said in an interview.

Rosales, who backs Robredo, remains hopeful and pointed to large numbers of volunteers who are campaigning for the current vice president on social media and across the country due to exasperation over corrupt and inept politicians.

“This volunteerism is a new kind of resistance,” Rosales said. “It is people power.”

___

Associated Press journalist Kiko Rosario contributed to this report.