The Earth moves far under our feet: A new study shows the inner core oscillates

USC Dornsife scientists identify a six-year cycle of super- and sub-rotation that affected the length of a day based on their analysis of seismic data

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

 

IMAGE: USC RESEARCHERS IDENTIFIED A SIX-YEAR CYCLE OF SUPER- AND SUB-ROTATION IN THE EARTH'S INNER CORE, CONTRADICTING PREVIOUSLY ACCEPTED MODELS THAT SUGGESTED IT CONSISTENTLY ROTATES AT A FASTER RATE THAN THE PLANET’S SURFACE. view more 

CREDIT: EDWARD SOTELO/USC

USC scientists have found evidence that the Earth’s inner core oscillates, contradicting previously accepted models that suggested it consistently rotates at a faster rate than the planet’s surface.

Their study, published today in Science Advances, shows that the inner core changed direction in the six-year period from 1969-74, according to the analysis of seismic data. The scientists say their model of inner core movement also explains the variation in the length of day, which has been shown to oscillate persistently for the past several decades.

“From our findings, we can see the Earth’s surface shifts compared to its inner core, as people have asserted for 20 years,” said John E. Vidale, co-author of the study and Dean’s Professor of Earth Sciences at USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. “However, our latest observations show that the inner core spun slightly slower from 1969-71 and then moved the other direction from 1971-74. We also note that the length of day grew and shrank as would be predicted.

“The coincidence of those two observations makes oscillation the likely interpretation.”

Analysis of atomic tests pinpoints rotation rate and direction

Our understanding of the inner core has expanded dramatically in the past 30 years. The inner core — a hot, dense ball of solid iron the size of Pluto — has been shown to move and/or change over decades. It’s also impossible to observe directly, meaning researchers struggle through indirect measurements to explain the pattern, speed and cause of the movement and changes.

Research published in 1996 was the first to propose the inner core rotates faster than the rest of the planet — also known as super-rotation — at roughly 1 degree per year. Subsequent findings from Vidale reinforced the idea that the inner core super-rotates, albeit at a slower rate.

Utilizing data from the Large Aperture Seismic Array (LASA), a U.S. Air Force facility in Montana, researcher Wei Wang and Vidale found the inner core rotated slower than previously predicted, approximately 0.1 degrees per year. The study analyzed waves generated from Soviet underground nuclear bomb tests from 1971-74 in the Arctic archipelago Novaya Zemlya using a novel beamforming technique developed by Vidale.

The new findings emerged when Wang and Vidale applied the same methodology to a pair of earlier atomic tests beneath Amchitka Island at the tip of the Alaskan archipelago — Milrow in 1969 and Cannikin in 1971. Measuring the compressional waves resulting from the nuclear explosions, they discovered the inner core had reversed direction, sub-rotating at least a tenth of a degree per year.

This latest study marked the first time the well-known six-year oscillation had been indicated through direct seismological observation.

“The idea the inner core oscillates was a model that was out there, but the community has been split on whether it was viable,” Vidale says. “We went into this expecting to see the same rotation direction and rate in the earlier pair of atomic tests, but instead we saw the opposite. We were quite surprised to find that it was moving in the other direction.”

Future research to dig deeper into why inner core formed

Vidale and Wang both noted future research would depend on finding sufficiently precise observations to compare against these results. By using seismological data from atomic tests in previous studies, they have been able to pinpoint the exact location and time of the very simple seismic event, says Wang. However, the Montana LASA closed in 1978 and the era of U.S. underground atomic testing is over, meaning that the researchers would need to rely on comparatively imprecise earthquake data, even with recent advances in instrumentation.

The study does support the speculation that the inner core oscillates based on variations in the length of day — plus or minus 0.2 seconds over six years — and geomagnetic fields, both of which match the theory in both amplitude and phase. Vidale says the findings provide a compelling theory for many questions posed by the research community.

“The inner core is not fixed — it’s moving under our feet, and it seems to going back and forth a couple of kilometers every six years,” Vidale said. “One of the questions we tried to answer is, does the inner core progressively move or is it mostly locked compared to everything else in the long term? We're trying to understand how the inner core formed and how it moves over time — this is an important step in better understanding this process.”

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JOURNAL

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.abm9916 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Seismological observation of Earth’s oscillating inner core

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

10-Jun-2022

Ningaloo corals are ill-equipped to handle future climate change

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CURTIN UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: LEAD RESEARCHER PHD STUDENT ARNE ADAM view more 

CREDIT: CURTIN UNIVERSITY

The relatively pristine coral populations of WA’s inshore Kimberley region are better equipped to survive ocean warming than the World Heritage-listed Ningaloo Marine Park, according to a new Curtin University study.

Despite previous research predicting coral species would move south to cooler waters to protect themselves, the new study – published in Molecular Ecology – has found this may not hold true on the West Coast of Australia.

The new study, which investigated coral population connectivity and adaptive capacity, has found corals growing in different reef systems in north-western Australia are genetically isolated from each other.

The findings were based on the genetic data of a reef-building coral, Acropora digitifera, sampled from five well-known reef systems. The study sought to find out how connected these reef systems are, and how resilient this coral is to different future climate scenarios in different regions.

Lead researcher PhD student Arne Adam, from the Curtin School of Molecular and Life Sciences, said climate change had caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs. He said the results suggest corals from northern reefs in WA are isolated from each other, meaning that corals may not be able to move to more southern reef regions.

“Having segregated reefs means that it’s hard for the corals to move between the regions. If corals at one reef die out, it is unlikely that this reef will be rescued by newcomer corals from neighbouring reefs,” Mr Adam said.

Mr Adam said that previous research had indicated that southern regions would become hotspots for coral biodiversity in the future, however based on this data, it is unknown if corals at southern regions have the genetic adaptations needed to survive the effects of a rapidly warming ocean.

“We found corals growing in northern reef regions such as the inshore Kimberley – including Adele Island and Beagle Reef – are better adapted to handle future ocean warming, whilst the coral community at Ningaloo Reef is in danger of losing diversity because they are not well-equipped to survive a warming ocean,” Mr Adam said.

Senior researcher Dr Zoe Richards, also from the School of Molecular and Life Sciences, said the results supported the notion that reef systems in WA were both geographically isolated and highly adapted to the current local environmental conditions.

“For the Ningaloo Reef system, this combination of traits could spell disaster under extreme future climate scenarios,” Dr Richards said.

“This study helps to predict which coral communities may be resilient or vulnerable to future climate change, and that information is important for cost-effective conservation planning.”

The study included data from Ashmore Reef, the Rowley Shoals, the inshore Kimberley, and reefs within the Ningaloo Coast World Heritage Area. It was a collaborative study with scientists at the Australian Marine Science Institute in Perth (AIMS). This research was funded by the Australian Research Council, Curtin University and the PhD Science Industry Scholarship.

Woodside Energy and the Northwest Shoals to Shore Research Program, supported by Santos Ltd, funded offshore fieldwork for this project. Data was analysed and interpreted with funding support to Mr Adam through the Woodside Coral Reef Research Fellowship.

The full paper, titled ‘Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia’, is available here.

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JOURNAL

Molecular Ecology

DOI

10.1111/mec.16498 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Randomized controlled/clinical trial

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia’

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

10-Jun-2022

New eco-friendly synthesis method uses alumina as a recyclable catalyst

A more sustainable method of synthesizing vital building blocks for the manufacture of perfumes, pharmaceuticals and useful organic chemicals.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KOBE UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: FIGURE 1. A COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE ALUMINA POWDER view more 

CREDIT: AKIHIKO TSUDA

An international research collaboration between Kobe University and Inner Mongolia Medical University (*1) has developed a simple, low cost and comparatively environmentally friendly method of synthesizing diphenylmethanol derivatives using alumina from China. Diphenylmethanol derivatives are used as raw materials in the manufacture of perfumes and pharmaceuticals, among others.

The researchers discovered that alumina can be repeatedly reused for this reaction if it is washed with water and dried between usages. This recycling reduces both the need for more alumina and the amount of waste produced, lowering synthesis costs and the impact on the environment. As global environmental awareness continues to increase, the researchers hope that this new method of chemical synthesis will contribute towards realizing a carbon neutral society and achieving the SDGs.

This discovery was made by an international research group, which included Associate Professor TSUDA Akihiko of Kobe University Graduate School of Science (who is also a visiting professor at Inner Mongolia Medical University) and researchers from Inner Mongolia Medical University, including Professor CHAOLU Eerdun (who obtained their PhD. from Kobe University’s Graduate School of Science) and Lecturer LIANG Fengying.

A patent application for this method was filed in China in April 2021, with a priority claim application made in September of the same year. Subsequently, the results of this research were published online in the academic journal ‘ChemistryOpen’ on May 18, 2022.

Main Points

• China is the world’s biggest producer of alumina, producing 77.48 million tons in 2021 (source: JOGMEC Mineral Resources Information). Various useful functions of alumina have been discovered; it is recyclable and it can be used as a catalyst, an adsorbent and for organic synthesis.
• The researchers successfully produced high yields of diphenylmethanol derivatives via a simple process. This involved reacting two generic organic solvents together (chloroform and a methyl-substituted benzene) with inexpensive aluminium chloride serving as the catalyst. The product of this reaction was then treated with alumina containing water.
• This process does not require high-cost specialist equipment nor chemicals; the alumina can be repeatedly reused simply by washing it with water and then drying it, making it a simple, safe and low cost catalyst for organic synthesis.
• Scientific methods using new chemical reactions that are low energy/have a low environmental impact will greatly contribute towards achieving carbon neutrality and the SDGs.
• This discovery was the result of an international joint research project in which overseas researchers who obtained their doctoral degrees from Kobe University received support for their research activities after leaving Japan.

Research Background
Alumina (Al2O3) is an aluminium oxide mainly used as a raw material for the production of aluminium (Figure 1). However, it is also utilized as a catalyst in the field of organic synthetic chemistry. It is mainly used for reactions that require harsh conditions (such as high temperature or high pressure). However, alumina is not a commonly-used catalyst for various reasons, one being that it can only be used for a small range of chemical reactions. Alumina is also used to adsorb impurities in the organic synthesis field and as a stationary phase substance in chromatography (*2). However, issues such as its high cost as a raw material and the large amount of non-burnable waste it generates means that there is a trend towards replacing it with substitutes. Under these circumstances, Professor Tsuda led a research group at Inner Mongolia University (China) that succeeded in developing a new, sustainable method of organic synthesis using alumina, which China produces in great quantities.

Professor Tsuda has been conducting international joint research with Inner Mongolia Medical University since 2017; he became a visiting professor in 2018, and has supervised the research of university members. He has been engaged in the joint development of pharmaceuticals, polymers and functional materials using the natural resources (such as metallic minerals and plants) found in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Since the conclusion of an academic partnership agreement between Kobe University Graduate School of Science and Inner Mongolia Medical University’s Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences in November 2021, the two institutions have been conducting more active inter-institutional research.

Research Methodology
Professor Tsuda and the Inner Mongolia Medical University team discovered a simple, low-cost, environmentally-friendly way of synthesizing diphenylmethanol derivatives (which are starting materials in the production of fragrances and pharmaceuticals) by utilizing Chinese alumina as both a catalyst and adsorbent (Figure 2). Using aluminium chloride (AlCl3) as a catalyst, the generic organic solvents toluene, xylene, and trimethylbenzene were reacted with chloroform. If the resulting substance is post-treated with water, then you mainly obtain a chlorination product. However, the researchers discovered that if the same resulting substance is deposited on alumina that contains water, you can obtain diphenylmethanol derivatives. They also found that if the resulting substance is deposited on alumina that contains methanol, a methanol substitute is obtained. It is thought that when the substance is adsorbed onto the alumina, it reacts with the water or alcohol within to produce the respective end product.

Furthermore, the research group found that a highly pure product could be obtained even if it was adsorbed by alumina that had previously been used as a catalyst or was an impure by-product. Using the aforementioned method it is possible to selectively synthesize three different products.

However, commercial alumina is comparatively expensive, which would make it difficult to implement reactions like this that require large amounts on an industrial scale. With this in mind, the researchers tried reusing the alumina after rinsing it with water and allowing it to dry, and discovered that it retained its catalytic and adsorbent properties (Figure 3). This recycling process can be performed repeatedly, which greatly reduces the cost of materials as well as the amount of waste. For the synthesis experiments in the laboratory, the amount of alumina used was in the region of a few grams to tens of grams. It is a safe, high-yield reaction that only takes a short amount of time to complete (a number of hours), therefore this application of alumina on an academic level could be expanded into diverse fields in the chemical industry. It is hoped that it could provide society with a practical and sustainable organic synthesis method.

Detailed process and mechanism:
At 0°C, aluminium chloride (1.1 g, 8 mmol) was added to a mixture of chloroform (30 mL, 0.37 mol) and an aromatic substrate such as p-xylene (1mL, 8mmol), and then stirred for 6 hours. After this, the resulting sample solution was dropped into a commercially available alumina column (water content ~1 wt%) and subjected to column chromatography with a dry chloroform/ethyl acetate (1:1) eluent. This chromatography revealed that a 94% yield of diphenylmethanol derivatives can be produced using this method. Refinement processes such as recrystallization can be performed as required to obtain a highly pure end product.

As for the mechanism behind this, it is thought that the chloroform and the aromatic substrate undergo an aluminium chloride-mediated Friedel-Crafts reaction. The resulting reactant and aluminium chloride are adsorbed by the alumina and are subsequently hydrolysed by the water molecules in the alumina, leading to the formation of the end product. After removing the end product from the alumina, the alumina can be recycled by first washing away the adsorbed compounds, salts and solvents remaining in the alumina and then drying it. Consequently, the alumina can be reused as a catalyst for this reaction again and again.

Further Research
The novel catalytic, adsorbent and recyclable properties of alumina discovered through this research have potential applications to the organic synthesis of compounds other than diphenylmethanol derivatives. The goal is to greatly expand this reaction’s range of applications to develop a more general synthesis method that can be used to produce various useful chemicals.

Amidst rising global environmental awareness, it is hoped that the new chemical reaction developed in this study will become a novel method of synthesizing chemical products which will contribute towards recycling efforts, carbon neutrality and the SDGs. It is predicted to bring about fresh innovation in the organic synthesis and organic chemical industries. It is hoped that continued development of this method through the international research collaboration with China, the world’s number one producer of alumina, will result in highly practical large-scale implementation.

About the Research System and Funding
This was an international joint research study conducted by the Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences at Inner Mongolia Medical University and the Graduate School of Science at Kobe University. The research was funded by a grant from The National Natural Science Fund of China (NSFC) (grant number: 21961026).

Glossary
1. Inner Mongolia Medical University:
A medical university located in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. It was the first medical university to be founded in one of China’s ethnic minority regions. It is one of the designated institutions in the PRC Ministry of Education’s plan to educate outstanding medical students.
2. Chromatography:
An analytical technique for separating a mixture into its components. A gas, liquid, or supercritical fluid is used as a mobile phase which carries the mixture though a system (in this case a column apparatus or tube) where it interacts with a substances used as a stationary phase. Different components of the mixture travel through specific mobile and stationary phases at different speeds, causing them to separate and allowing the components of the mixture to be detected.

Patent Details
Presentation Title: Synthesis method for diphenylmethanol derivatives (Chinese title: 二苯甲醇衍生物的制备方法)
Domestic Application No. (China): 202110401595.1 (Date of Application: April 14, 2021)
Priority Claim Application No. (China): 202111035281.0 (Date of Application: September 5, 2021)
Presenters: Chaolu Eerdun and Akihiko Tsuda
Applicant: Inner Mongolia Medical University

Journal Information
Title
“Direct Syntheses of Diphenylmethanol Derivatives from Substituted Benzenes and CHCl3 through Friedel-Crafts Alkylation and Post Hydrolysis or Alcoholysis Catalyzed by Alumina”
DOI: 10.1002/open.202200042

Authors
苏日古嘎 (Guga Suri) +,[a] 梁凤英(Fengying Liang) +,[a] 胡密霞 (Mixia Hu),[a] 王美玲 (Meiling Wang),[a] 布仁 (Ren Bu),[a] 张笑迎 (Xiaoying Zhang),[a] 王慧 (Hui Wang),[a] 董文艳 (Wenyan Dong),[a] 额尔敦 (Chaolu Eerdun),*[a] 津田明彦 (Akihiko Tsuda)*[a,b]
* Corresponding author, + Equal contribution
[a] Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Medical University
[b] Graduate School of Science, Kobe University 

Journal Information
ChemistryOpen

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JOURNAL

ChemistryOpen

DOI

10.1002/open.202200042 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Direct Syntheses of Diphenylmethanol Derivatives from Substituted Benzenes and CHCl3 through Friedel-Crafts Alkylation and Post-Synthetic Hydrolysis or Alcoholysis Catalyzed by Alumina

Present Antarctic deglaciation may be unprecedented in last 5,000 years, UMaine study finds

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF MAINE

 

IMAGE: SAMPLE COLLECTION ON THE LINDSEY ISLANDS, PINE ISLAND BAY, ANTARCTICA. UNIVERSITY OF MAINE GRADUATE STUDENTS SCOTT BRADDOCK AND MEGHAN SPOTH ARE COLLECTING RADIOCARBON SAMPLES WITH HELP FROM ELIZABETH RUSH (BROWN UNIVERSITY). US NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RESEARCH VESSEL, NATHANIEL B. PALMER IS IN THE BACKGROUND. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY JAMES KIRKHAM

Two major glaciers in West Antarctica may be losing ice faster than they have in at least the last 5,000 years, a University of Maine study finds. The rapidly melting glaciers could lead to major sea level rise over the next several centuries.

Over the past few decades, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has retreated and thinned at accelerated rates. The Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers that extend deep into the heart of the ice sheet are of particular concern. These glaciers are susceptible to rapid melting because they sit on an inland-sloping bed where warm ocean water can flow underneath floating parts of the glacier tongues and erode the ice sheet from its base, which can lead to runaway ice loss. 

Runaway retreat of these two glaciers could reduce the size of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, potentially contributing as much as 3.4 meters to global sea level rise over the next several centuries. 

However, it is hypothesized that the glaciers may have been much smaller in the geologically-recent past – namely, during the mid-Holocene, an era over 5,000 years ago that was even warmer than the present day. If they were smaller, they must have subsequently re-grown, raising the hope that they could do this again in the future. 

An international team of researchers led by the University of Maine looked at the relative sea-level change close to the glaciers during the past 5,000 years as an indirect way of determining whether they were substantially smaller than present in the mid-Holocene and then re-expanded. Relative sea level at a location depends on the amount of water in the ocean but also, importantly, on local changes in the shape of the earth’s crust due to loading and unloading of glacier ice. Thus, reconstructions of relative sea level over time can be used to identify large-scale changes in glacier advance and retreat.  

The team, led by University of Maine Ph.D. student Scott Braddock, used radiocarbon dating of shells from ancient beaches that are now elevated above modern sea level to reconstruct changes in relative sea level over time. The shape of the resulting curve is related to the growth and retreat of the glaciers. 

“Relative sea-level change allows you to see large-scale crustal loading and unloading by ice,” says Brenda Hall, corresponding author of the study and professor at the School of Earth and Climate Sciences and the Climate Change Institute. “For example, glacier readvance, which would result in crustal loading, would slow the rate of relative sea-level fall or potentially even cause submergence of the land below sea level.”

The results showed a steady fall in relative sea level over the last 5,000 years. This pattern is consistent with relatively stable glacier behavior with no evidence of large-scale glacier retreat or advance. Moreover, the researchers found that the rate of relative sea-level fall recorded by the shells was almost five times lower than that measured today. The most likely reason for such a large difference is recent rapid ice loss in the region.

"Our work suggests that these vulnerable glaciers were relatively stable during the past millennia, yet their current rate of melting is accelerating and raising global sea level,” says co-author Dylan Rood, senior lecturer at Imperial College London. “These currently elevated rates of ice melting may signal that those vital arteries from the heart of West Antarctic Ice Sheet have burst, leading to accelerating flow into the ocean that is potentially disastrous for future global sea level in a warming world."

The researchers also compared their results to existing models of the dynamics between ice and the Earth’s crust. They found that the models did not accurately represent the sea-level history revealed by their data. This study helps to paint a more accurate picture of the history of the region and suggests that the models need refining.

Although the new evidence does not exclude the possibility of minor fluctuations of the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers over the past 5,000 or so years, the researchers concluded that the simplest interpretation of their data is that these glaciers have been relatively stable since the mid-Holocene until recent times – and that the present-day rate of glacier retreat may be unprecedented over the last 5,000 years. 

With no evidence from the relative sea-level data that the glaciers have recovered from a smaller-than-present configuration in the last few thousand years, the possibility remains that the present accelerating retreat of these glaciers could lead to ever-increasing ice recession into the heart of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with consequent implications for global sea level.

The study was published June 9, 2022, in the journal Nature Geoscience.

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JOURNAL

Nature Geoscience

DOI

10.1038/s41561-022-00961-y 

ARTICLE TITLE

Relative sea-level data preclude major late Holocene ice-mass change in Pine Island Bay

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

9-Jun-2022

Monarch butterfly populations are thriving in North America

Summer numbers have remained stable for 25 years despite dire warnings

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA

 

VIDEO: MONARCH BUTTERFLIES. view more 

CREDIT: U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE

For years, scientists have warned that monarch butterflies are dying off in droves because of diminishing winter colonies. But new research from the University of Georgia shows that the summer population of monarchs has remained relatively stable over the past 25 years.  

Published in Global Change Biology, the study suggests that population growth during the summer compensates for butterfly losses due to migration, winter weather and changing environmental factors.  

“There’s this perception out there that monarch populations are in dire trouble, but we found that’s not at all the case,” said Andy Davis, corresponding author of the study and an assistant research scientist in UGA’s Odum School of Ecology. “It goes against what everyone thinks, but we found that they’re doing quite well. In fact, monarchs are actually one of the most widespread butterflies in North America.” 

The study authors caution against becoming complacent, though, because rising global temperatures may bring new and growing threats not just to monarchs but to all insects. 

“There are some once widespread butterfly species that now are in trouble,” said William Snyder, co-author of the paper and a professor in UGA’s College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. “So much attention is being paid to monarchs instead, and they seem to be in pretty good shape overall. It seems like a missed opportunity. We don’t want to give the idea that insect conservation isn’t important because it is. It’s just that maybe this one particular insect isn’t in nearly as much trouble as we thought.” 

This study represents the largest and most comprehensive assessment of breeding monarch butterfly population to date. 

The researchers compiled more than 135,000 monarch observations from the North American Butterfly Association between 1993 and 2018 to examine population patterns and possible drivers of population changes, such as precipitation and widespread use of agricultural herbicides.  

The North American Butterfly Association utilizes citizen-scientists to document butterfly species and counts across North America during a two-day period every summer. Each group of observers has a defined circle to patrol that spans about 15 miles in diameter, and the observers tally all butterflies they see, including monarchs. 

By carefully examining the monarch observations, the team found an overall annual increase in monarch relative abundance of 1.36% per year, suggesting that the breeding population of monarchs in North America is not declining on average. Although wintering populations in Mexico have seen documented declines in past years, the findings suggest that the butterflies’ summer breeding in North America makes up for those losses. 

That marathon race to Mexico or California each fall, Davis said, may be getting more difficult for the butterflies as they face traffic, bad weather and more obstacles along the way south. So fewer butterflies are reaching the finish line.

“But when they come back north in the spring, they can really compensate for those losses,” Davis said. “A single female can lay 500 eggs, so they’re capable of rebounding tremendously, given the right resources. What that means is that the winter colony declines are almost like a red herring. They’re not really representative of the entire species’ population, and they’re kind of misleading. Even the recent increase in winter colony sizes in Mexico isn’t as important as some would like to think.”

Changing monarch migration patterns 

One concern for conservationists has been the supposed national decline in milkweed, the sole food source for monarch caterpillars. But Davis believes this study suggests that breeding monarchs already have all the habitat they need in North America. If they didn’t, Davis said, the researchers would have seen that in this data.

“Everybody thinks monarch habitat is being lost left and right, and for some insect species this might be true but not for monarchs,” Davis said. If you think about it, monarch habitat is people habitat. Monarchs are really good at utilizing the landscapes we’ve created for ourselves. Backyard gardens, pastures, roadsides, ditches, old fields—all of that is monarch habitat.”

In some parts of the U.S., monarchs have a year-round or nearly year-round presence, which leads some researchers to believe the insects may in part be moving away from the annual migration to Mexico. San Francisco, for example, hosts monarchs year-round because people plant non-native tropical milkweed. And Florida is experiencing fewer freezes each year, making its climate an alternative for monarchs that would normally head across the border. 

“There’s this idea out there about an insect apocalypse—all the insects are going to be lost,” said Snyder. “But it’s just not that simple. Some insects probably are going to be harmed; some insects are going to benefit. You really have to take that big pig picture at a more continental scale over a relatively long time period to get the true picture of what’s happening.” 

The study was funded by grants from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.  

The paper was co-authored by Timothy Meehan, of the National Audubon Society; Matthew Moran, of Hendrix College; and Jeffrey Glassberg, of Rice University and the North American Butterfly Association. Michael Crossley, who worked on the study as a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Entomology and is now at the University of Delaware, is first author of the paper. 

  

CAPTION

Andy Davis, assistant research scientist in the University of Georgia's Odum School of Ecology

CREDIT

UGA

Video footage of monarch butterflies is available at the following link https://www.dropbox.com/s/qrv6of01skeibi7/Monarch_B_Roll.mp4?dl=0

Credit: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

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JOURNAL

Global Change Biology

ARTICLE TITLE

Opposing global change drivers counterbalance trends in breeding North American monarch butterflies

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

10-Jun-2022

Despite dire warnings, monarch butterfly numbers are solid

New study shows warmer temperatures and increases during the summer are compensating for negative factors, stabilizing breeding trends

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

 

IMAGE: A NEW RESEARCH STUDY LED BY UD’S MICHAEL CROSSLEY TITLED “OPPOSING GLOBAL CHANGE DRIVERS COUNTERBALANCE TRENDS IN BREEDING NORTH AMERICAN MONARCH BUTTERFLIES” PUBLISHED IN GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY ON JUNE 10. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY MICHELE WALFRED/ UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

Largely because of well-publicized, diminishing winter colonies in Mexico and California, monarch butterflies across North America have been long thought to be declining as a result of diminishing summer habitat. Previous butterfly research shows that the size of overwintering monarch colonies has fallen across several decades. But what is happening when monarchs breed in the summer was less clear.

In a new research study published in Global Change Biology, lead author Michael Crossley, assistant professor and agricultural entomologist at the University of Delaware, and his collaborators examined trends in breeding monarchs across their entire range, and found there are local regions of decline, but also regions of increase. When considering the entire species range, there was no overall decline, and in fact, even a slight increase in abundance.

“The whole reason that we did this research is because monarch colonies have been declining,” said Crossley. “Up until now, there were real fears that the monarch is in trouble.”

The study’s results suggest that population growth in summer is compensating for losses during the winter. Additionally, findings indicate that changing environmental variables have offsetting effects on deaths and reproduction.

North America’s three largest countries have more in common than playing the 2026 hosts of soccer’s biggest spectacle — the FIFA World Cup. The perception of the monarchs’ decline had prompted the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to determine if the species warrants a higher level of protection. Canada’s equivalent agency is strongly considering listing monarchs as an endangered species because of the declines in Mexico.

As the researchers analyzed the data, patterns emerged and were location specific. Portions of the U.S. Northeast and parts of the Midwest revealed population declines. The U.S. Southeast and Northwest were unchanged or increasing, yielding a slightly positive overall trend across the species range. Monarchs in Florida appear to be doing exceptionally well.

“Our question was, ‘Are monarchs declining across their breeding range?’ The key take home message was yes, monarchs are declining in some places, but increasing in other locations,” said Crossley, who conducts research and teaches in the UD Department of Entomology and Wildlife Ecology. “There is no consistent, long-term trend.”

So how is that possible? Near agricultural fields that use glyphosate, which is used in products such as Roundup, sites typically had fewer monarchs. This occurrence was especially evident in the upper Midwest — the corn and soy belt. The researchers also found positive effects of temperature, which is generally increasing faster in northern latitudes, which seems to be counterbalancing glyphosate effects.

“These two effects seem to cancel each other out, especially in the upper Midwest,” said Crossley. 

Crossley contends that the different trends in these locations are related to the environment.

“For example, there are populations now that will overwinter in California, Florida or even southern Georgia because it’s become more feasible with increasing winter temperatures,” Crossley said. “We may see fewer migrants because monarchs are doing well, staying in Florida and not joining the migration.” 

Since accelerating climate change may bring growing threats, Crossley cautioned against complacency.

The dataset that the researchers used was made possible by the North American Butterfly Association and thousands of citizen scientists — volunteers and butterfly enthusiasts — who collected butterfly counts for the past 25 years at more than 400 sites around the continent.

Another conclusion of the study is that other butterfly species are facing greater peril than monarchs. The authors argue that some of these butterflies — like Poweshiek skipperling (in the upper Midwest), Florida leafwing (in extreme southern Florida) and Hermes copper (in extreme southern California) — deserve more attention. Though monarchs are the most popular among the general public, they are far from the only type of butterfly. The North American Butterfly Association observes more than 450 species. Though it’s facing overall population declines, the monarch is doing comparatively well; 320 species face steeper population losses.

“It seems like breeding monarchs in North America are not in trouble despite winter colony declines,” said Crossley. “This could lead to several explanations about why a disconnect exists between numbers in the breeding range and numbers in overwintering sites.”

The grueling journey

The findings show that monarchs are breeding in strong numbers. Then the insects trek to places like Mexico to overwinter, but these colonies are generally shrinking in size. So, what is hindering the journey southward to the winter colonies? Study co-author Andy Davis of the University of Georgia has investigated parasites of monarchs and found that a protozoan parasite, Ophryocystis elektroscirrha (OE), is on the rise, and could affect the success of the fall migration. As Davis described, making that journey with parasites in tow is equivalent to running a marathon with the flu. And monarchs’ total mileage, which falls between 1,200 and 2,800 miles, far eclipses human’s 26.2-mile mark for a marathon. 

“A lot of monarchs are not going to make that southward journey if they are infected,” said Crossley. “One way to reconcile the disconnect [between breeding numbers and overwinter numbers] is to say, well, maybe monarchs have an incredible ability to rebound every spring and summer from relatively small overwintering sizes. And the decline is occurring during this southward migration.”

Besides parasites, other factors are affecting monarchs’ migration. Climate change is making the journey south hotter and drier, making the extended trip more arduous for these small creatures. Additionally, many butterflies use certain valleys as their flyways, which are unfortunately along highways. Cars and trucks are simply running into the iconic insects, something Crossley points out could potentially be amended.

“For other types of species, officials reduce speed limits or reroute traffic during certain times of year, so these animals can cross the road,” said Crossley. 

Finally, when you’re on a long trip, you always stop and grab a bite to eat, right? Monarchs feed on nectar. Loss of habitat and nectar resources mean more butterflies lack the energy to fly south. The average person can take action on their own and plant native, fall-blooming goldenrods, asters and perennial sunflowers to fuel the monarchs. 

“We certainly can’t go wrong by making more insect habitats. Whether humans or animals, we could all use more,”  Crossley said. “We can do that with native plants right in our own backyards.”

The paper was co-authored by the University of Georgia's Davis and William Snyder; Timothy Meehan, of the National Audubon Society; Matthew Moran, of Hendrix College; and Jeffrey Glassberg, of Rice University and the North American Butterfly Association.

---

JOURNAL

Global Change Biology

DOI

10.1111/gcb.16282 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Opposing global change drivers counterbalance trends in breeding North American monarch butterflies

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

10-Jun-2022

Bob Marley Brings Common Cause At Americas Summit


By AFP News
06/10/22 AT 3:48 PM

Bob Marley famously sang "Africa Unite" but on Friday he was bringing unity to an Americas summit that was marked by disputes.

Taking the podium at the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, Prime Minister Mia Mottley of Barbados quoted the late reggae legend as she said, "There is so much trouble in the world."

Mottley explained that she was not "an apostle of Bob" but shared his message of action.

"He reminds us of the day-to-day reality of our people and of our citizens," she said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was chairing the session and is known for his love of music, replied with an impromptu medley of Marley lyrics.

"In the words of Bob, no woman, no cry," Blinken said with a smile.

Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley quotes Bob Marley as she 

addresses the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles Photo: AFP / Patrick T. FALLON

"Don't shed no tears. Let's act. We can sing a redemption song together."

Marley sang frequently of political unity and is credited by some with helping quell a low-level civil war in his native Jamaica through his 1978 "One Love Peace" concert.

The Summit of the Americas was led by US President Joe Biden who has sought greater economic ties and cooperation on migration.

But he also faced open criticism and a boycott from Mexico's president over his refusal to invite the leftist leaders of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela on the grounds that they are authoritarian.

Target And Walmart's Real Problem: Work Paychecks Cannot Replace Stimulus Checks Amid Inflation


By Panos Mourdoukoutas Ph.D.
06/08/22 

In recent months, Americans have returned to work in droves.

Unemployment is near record lows. Paychecks are rising. Americans are living a job market dream.

American retailers that cater to middle and low-income Americans, like Target and Walmart, thrived during the pandemic and should be seeing their sales boom these days. But they aren't. Instead, they say they have a hard time moving merchandise off the shelves, even at discounted prices, surprising Wall Street, which has been selling the shares of the two retailers.

What's the problem?

The quick answer is that the two retailers ordered too much merchandise, perhaps worried about supply chain bottlenecks due to the reopening of the economy.

But there's another theory: middle and low-income American consumers are worse off today than they were during the pandemic for a couple of reasons.

First, income earned from work isn't sufficient to replace income received during the pandemic from stimulus checks. Personal income has been growing slower than it grew while the stimulus checks were in effect, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Second, the soaring food, energy and rent inflation is crushing family budgets. It's forcing consumers to change spending patterns, steering away from discretionary items like those Walmart and Target have a hard time moving off shelves.

"Target's warning so close after its May 18 earning release was a surprise and a sign of just how quickly the consumer is changing their spending habits," said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at DriveWealth. "Clearly, the biggest shift is due to the huge rise in gas and food prices. Gas prices just hit a new record of $4.92 on average [on Tuesday] at the U.S. pumps. There's no bigger tax on the consumer than gas other than food."

Woods sees the problem of rising food prices persisting, putting further pressure on consumer spending habits and the retail sector.

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The dire situation American consumers are in is captured by Gallup's Economic Confidence Index, which measures Americans' current and future economic situation. It dipped to minus-45 in May, down from minus-39 in the previous two months. That's the lowest reading since the Great Recession in early 2009. The index ranges between plus-100 (if all respondents say the economy is excellent or good and is getting better) and minus-100 (if all say it is poor and getting worse).

Gallup's findings are consistent with the results of other surveys, which confirm a similar trend.

The Consumer Confidence Survey, published by the Conference Board, decreased to 106.4 in May from 108.6 in April, with the Expectations Index dropping from 79.0 in April to 77.5 in May.

Then the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 58.4 in May, the lowest reading since August 2011.

Will things get better or worse from here?

It depends on whether food and energy inflation that began with supply chain bottlenecks and accommodative monetary policy and was made worse by the Russia-Ukraine war will ease or get worse without the U.S. economy sliding into a recession.

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UK judge rejects bid to block deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda

A British judge on Friday rejected an emergency bid to block deportation flights of asylum seekers to Rwanda set to start next week under an agreement with the east African country, ruling politicians must manage immigration policy.

 Toby Melville, Reuters

The UK government intends to fly the first planeload of claimants to Rwanda on June 14, after agreeing the plan with Kigali in a bid to deter illegal migrants from undertaking perilous crossings of the Channel by boat.

Refugee rights groups and a trade union representing UK Border Force personnel challenged the plan in London's High Court, seeking an injunction against Tuesday's inaugural flight and any beyond then.

They argue that the plan violates asylum seekers' human rights, and say the government cannot justify its claim that Rwanda is a safe destination.

But delivering his decision after a one-day hearing, judge Jonathan Swift said it was in the "public interest" for Interior Minister Priti Patel "to be able to implement immigration control decisions".

However, Swift gave permission for his ruling to be appealed, suggesting Court of Appeal judges would hear the case on Monday, whilst also setting the date for a fuller two-day High Court hearing next month.

'Ashamed'

Patel welcomed the move, saying the government "will not be deterred in breaking the deadly people smuggling trade and ultimately saving lives".

"Rwanda is a safe country and has previously been recognised for providing a safe haven for refugees," she added.

But rights groups bidding to block the policy said they were "disappointed", while one faith leader said it left her feeling "deeply ashamed to be British"

"It feels inhumane," the Bishop of Dover Rose Hudson-Wilkin told Times Radio of the planned deportations.

Enver Soloman, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said it was "extremely worrying that despite these legal challenges and widespread concern, the government remain determined to press ahead".

Noting the numbers of migrants crossing the Channel had risen since the policy was unveiled earlier this year, he urged ministers to "reflect on the initial failures of this plan, and rethink".

Earlier, the UN refugee agency had accused the British government of dishonesty over its plan, after lawyers for the claimants said Patel's interior ministry had claimed the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) endorsed it.

The UN agency's lawyer Laura Dubinsky said it "in no way endorses the UK-Rwandan arrangement".

"UNHCR is not involved in the UK-Rwanda arrangement, despite assertions to the contrary made by the secretary of state," she told the court.

Dubinsky said the would-be refugees were at risk of "serious, irreparable harm" if sent to Rwanda, and that the UN had "serious concerns about Rwandan capacity".

The UNHCR's concerns include a lack of legal redress in Rwanda and potential discrimination against gay claimants.

"These are concerns that have been communicated to the UK authorities and yet the secretary of state's position... is that the UNHCR has given this plan a green light," the claimants' lawyer Raza Husain said.

"That is a false claim."

'Right approach'

Lawyers for the ministry later addressed the court, which heard there were 31 people expected to be on Tuesday's scheduled flight.

"The Home Office does intend to make arrangements for a further flight or flights to Rwanda this year," its lawyer Mathew Gullick said.

He urged the judge to consider the impact of blocking the flights, noting "even a pause of six weeks creates a period of time in which people may rush to cross (the Channel)".

"There are potentially hundreds of people who can cross in a single day," he added.

The government remains committed to the policy, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman had told reporters.

The plan remained "the right approach, not least to tackle the criminal gangs who exploit migrants on the coast of France and quite often force them into unseaworthy vessels to make what is an incredibly dangerous crossing to the UK", he said.

More than 10,000 migrants have made the journey so far this year, a huge increase on prior years. The one-way flights are intended to deter others from entering Britain by illegal routes, and offer those who do try a new life in Rwanda instead.