Inequality hotspot map shows where women in agriculture are hit the hardest by the climate crisis

Researchers show where women working in agri-food systems in Africa and Asia face the highest climate risk

Peer-Reviewed Publication

FRONTIERS

 

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CLIMATE–AGRICULTURE–GENDER INEQUALITY HOTSPOT LMICS ACROSS THE GLOBE

LEGEND: DARKER ORANGE-COLORED COUNTRIES HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CLIMATE–AGRICULTURE–GENDER INEQUALITY HOTSPOT INDEX VALUES; THEREFORE FACE HIGHER RISK. LIGHTER ORANGE-COLORED COUNTRIES HAVE RELATIVELY LOW CLIMATE–AGRICULTURE–GENDER INEQUALITY HOTSPOT INDEX VALUES; THEREFORE FACE LOWER RISK. LMICS WITH A WHITE COLOR HAVE NOT BEEN RANKED DUE TO DATA LIMITATIONS.

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CREDIT: COPYRIGHT: © 2023 LECOUTERE, MISHRA, SINGARAJU, KOO, AZZARRI, CHANANA, NICO AND PUSKUR

Threats posed by the climate crisis disproportionally affect certain communities and social groups that are more exposed. People living in low- and middle-income (LMIC) countries are at heightened risk. Within these countries, women typically face higher climate risk than men.

To show where women working in agri-food systems – systems that encompass production, but also post-harvest handling and distribution – are most threated by climate change, an international team of researchers has developed a hotspot map that identifies and ranks localities by threat level.

“We show that significant climate hazards, high exposure faced by women in agri-food systems, and high vulnerability faced by women due to systemic gender inequalities converge particularly in central, east, and southern Africa, as well as in west and south Asia,” said the study’s first author Dr Els Lecoutere, who is a researcher at the CGIAR GENDER Impact Platform in Kenya. “The maps are potentially impactful as they can inform decision- and policymaking around gender-responsive climate action and guide the allocation of scarce resources to populations at highest risk.” The results were published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems.

Hotspots for different reasons

“The climate-agriculture-gender inequality hotspot risk index captures the convergence of climate hazards, exposure, and vulnerability because of gender inequalities faced by women in agri-food systems,” said Lecoutere. The team of researchers involved in the study calculated each country’s risk based on these indicators. “We plotted the resulting ‘hotness’ score for each LMIC country into a color-coded map, which makes it possible to compare and contrast risks in different countries.”

The researchers also applied their methodology within four LMIC countries: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zambia, and Mali. In the global ranking, they took places two, four, 13, and 18, respectively. Multiple drivers of risk contributed to these rankings.

“For the two focus countries in Asia, high climate hazards and women farmers’ exposure drives climate risks, whereas in the two focus countries in Africa structural inequalities play a larger role,” Lecoutere explained.

In Mali and Zambia, secondary resources confirm that women are restricted by norms that hinder their access to land ownership, information, and economic empowerment – limitations that negatively affect their ability to adapt to climate hazards. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, women contribute significantly to agricultural activities, but do so mostly informally. Their work often remains unrecognized, unpaid, or underpaid, which leaves them dependent on agriculture, and vulnerable to the adverse aftereffects of ever more frequent and severe climate hazards.

Starting points for policymaking

The researchers pointed to certain limitations of their study, for example a lack of data that has made it impossible to calculate a ‘hotness’ score for some countries, including small island development states. Yet, it is often these locations that are the most poverty- or conflict-stricken, and therefore vulnerable, making it plausible that women in these environments face significant climate risks.

While the team pointed out that in some cases data might not be available or sufficiently recent to be effectively used for policy making, their findings offer insights for other localities. One possible starting point is reducing women’s sensitivity to harm from climate hazards by addressing systemic gender inequalities and supporting the adaptive capacities of all agri-food system actors in gender-responsive ways.

“Another key use for the results of our study is the upcoming COP28 and ongoing negotiations around a loss and damage fund, and other climate investments. The hotspot maps can help decisionmakers and investors target finance and investments to the areas where women are hardest hit from climate change risks,” Lecoutere pointed out.

Subnational level climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot map for livestock in Mali

Legend: Darker orange-colored countries have relatively high climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot index values; therefore face higher risk. Lighter orange-colored countries have relatively low climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot index values; therefore face lower risk. Names of the regions are M01: Kayes; M02: Koulikoro; M03: Si

Subnational level climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot map for perennial crops in Zambia

Legend: Darker orange-colored countries have relatively high climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot index values; therefore face higher risk. Lighter orange-colored countries have relatively low climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot index values; therefore face lower risk. Names of the provinces are Z01: Central; Z03: Eastern; Z04: Luapula; Z05: Lusaka; Z06: Northern; Z07: North-Western; Z08: Southern. (Missing data: Z02: Copperbelt; Z09: Western).

Subnational level climate– inequality hotspot map for cereals, leguminous crops and oilseeds in Pakistan

Legend: Darker orange-colored countries have relatively high climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot index values; therefore face higher risk. Lighter orange-colored countries have relatively low climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot index values; therefore face lower risk. Names of the regions are P01: Punjab; P02: Sindh; P03: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NW Frontier); P04: Balochistan; P05: Islamabad (ICT); P08: FATA. (Missing data P06: Gilgit Baltistan; P07: AJK)

Subnational level climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot map for rice in Bangladesh

Legend: Darker orange-colored countries have relatively high climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot index values; therefore face higher risk. Lighter orange-colored countries have relatively low climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot index values; therefore face lower risk. Name of the district groups are B01: Barisal–Jhalokati–Pirojpur; B02: Barguna–Bhola–Patuakhali; B03: Chittagong; B04: Bandarban–Cox’s Bazar; B05: Khagrachhari–Rangamati (Chattagram); B06: Feni–Lakshmipur–Noakhali; B07: Brahmanbaria–Chandpur–Comilla; B08: Dhaka; B09: Gazipur–Narayanganj–Narsingdi; B10: Jamalpur–Sherpur–Tangail; B11: Kishoreganj–Mymensingh–Netrakona; B12: Faridpur–Manikganj–Rajbari; B13: Gopalganj–Madaripur–Munshiganj–Shariatpur; B14: Bagerhat–Khulna–Satkhira; B15: Jessore–Magura–Narail; B16: Chuadanga–Jhenaidah–Kushtia–Meherpur; B17: Naogaon–Nawabganj–Rajshahi; B18: Natore–Pabna–Sirajganj; B19: Bogra–Gaibandha–Jaypurhat; B20: Dinajpur–Nilphamari–Panchagarh–Thakurgaon; B21: Kurigram–Lalmonirhat–Rangpur; B22: Maulvibazar–Sylhet; B23: Habiganj–Sunamganj.

CREDIT

Copyright: © 2023 Lecoutere, Mishra, Singaraju, Koo, Azzarri, Chanana, Nico and Puskur

JOURNAL

Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

DOI

10.3389/fsufs.2023.1197809 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Where women in agri-food systems are at highest climate risk: A methodology for mapping climate-agriculture-gender inequality hotspots

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

16-Nov-2023

COI STATEMENT

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

 

Reclaiming carbon fibers from discarded composite materials

Researchers demonstrate how thermal decomposition in superheated steam helps preserve the mechanical properties of reclaimed carbon fibers

Peer-Reviewed Publication

DOSHISHA UNIVERSITY

 

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THANKS TO THEIR LIGHT WEIGHT YET REMARKABLE STRENGTH, THE USE OF CFRPS IN THE AUTOMOBILE, AEROSPACE, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRIES IS SOARING. HOWEVER, THIS MEANS FINDING EFFECTIVE WAYS TO RECYCLE THE WASTE GENERATED BY CFRPS IS ESSENTIAL TO ENSURE SUSTAINABILITY IN THE LONG TERM.

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CREDIT: LUNCHBOXLARRY AT OPENVERSE (HTTPS://OPENVERSE.ORG/IMAGE/094D7259-9A00-48A2-B9AC-DCC92E63A8A9)

Minimizing energy consumption is a fundamental element in our journey towards sustainable societies, and advanced materials play a key role in this regard. Carbon-fiber-reinforced plastics (CFRPs) and carbon-fiber-reinforced thermoplastics (CFRTPs) are two prominent examples of composite materials that can significantly improve energy efficiency in various fields of application.

These composites are made of carbon fibers embedded in a polymer matrix, such as epoxy resin. Thanks to their low weight and remarkable mechanical strength, CFRPs and CFRTPs can greatly reduce the fuel consumption of aircraft, spacecraft, and automobiles. Moreover, they are durable and corrosion-resistant, making them suitable for renewable energy applications like wind turbines.

In recent years, the demand for CFRPs and CFRTPs has grown explosively. However, this also means that the amount of CFRP/CFRTP waste is also increasing rapidly. Since producing carbon fibers is very energy intensive, researchers have been looking for economically feasible ways to recover them from CFRP/CFRTP waste through a process known as “reclamation.” Thus far, the thermal decomposition (pyrolysis) technique seems to be the most effective, but preserving the mechanical properties of the reclaimed fibers has proven challenging.

Against this backdrop, researchers from Doshisha University, Japan, sought to investigate the benefits of conducting the pyrolysis of CFRPs/CFRTPs in a superheated steam (SHS) atmosphere as opposed to the standard atmosphere. In a recent paper published in Composites Part A: Applied Science and Manufacturing, Associate Professor Kiyotaka Obunai and Professor Kazuya Okubo revealed their findings to shed light on this innovative approach. The study was made available online on October 17, 2023, and will be published in Volume 176 of the journal on January 01, 2024.

The rationale behind conducting pyrolysis in an SHS atmosphere is relatively straightforward. Dr. Obunai explains: “SHS not only prevents the oxidation of carbon fibers by creating a low-oxygen environment but also removes polymer residues from the surface of the reclaimed fibers.” The researchers not only tested the mechanical characteristics of the reclaimed carbon fibers but also evaluated the performance of actual CFRP composites made using these fibers. To this end, they conducted bending strength tests and Izod impact strength tests, which assess the ability of materials to withstand applied loads by bending and assessing their resistance towards sudden blows, respectively.

The results of their experiments revealed several attractive aspects of pyrolysis reclamation in SHS. First, using advanced microscopy techniques, the researchers found that the SHS atmosphere suppressed the formation of dimple-like defects called “pitting” in the recovered fibers, realizing a smooth surface. Moreover, when pyrolysis was conducted at high temperatures (≥ 873 K), fibers reclaimed in an air atmosphere exhibited greatly reduced tensile strength and fracture toughness compared to those of “virgin” fibers. In contrast, these mechanical properties remained relatively the same in fibers reclaimed in an SHS atmosphere, highlighting the advantage of the SHS atmosphere in preserving both the fracture toughness and tensile strength of reclaimed fibers.

On top of this, fibers reclaimed in an SHS atmosphere also exhibited less variation in their mechanical properties, making their performance more consistent and more suitable for practical applications. Additionally, the SHS atmosphere during pyrolysis mitigated the degradation in the bending strength and Izod impact strength, making them similar to composites made with virgin fibers.

Taken together, these findings highlight the potential of pyrolysis reclamation in an SHS atmosphere to recover carbon fibers from composites. By providing an effective way to recycle, this approach might be the key to successfully introducing CFRPs/CFRTPs into a circular economy. “This work potentially provides an effective method for the reclamation of waste CFRP and contributes to the feasibility of achieving Sustainable Development Goals,” concludes Dr. Obunai, “The effectiveness of adopting a SHS atmosphere instead of inert gases for the mass-scale pyrolysis reclamation of waste CFRP should be investigated in future work.”

Further research will hopefully cement the position of CFRPs/CFRTPs as energy-efficient and sustainable materials for various applications, leading to a greener future.

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About Associate Professor Kiyotaka Obunai from Doshisha University, Japan
Dr. Kiyotaka Obunai joined the Department of Mechanical and Systems Engineering of the Faculty of Science and Engineering at Doshisha University as Associate Professor in 2018. His main research interests lie in manufacturing technology, including mechanical, electrical/electronic, and chemical engineering, as well as materials research and mechanics. He has published over 75 papers on these topics and received several awards, including the JSMS Award for Promising Researchers and the JSMS Kansai Branch President Award in 2022.

Funding information
This study was financially supported by a research project under the ‘‘Research and Development Center for Advanced Composite Materials’’ of Doshisha University and MEXT (the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan)-Supported Program for the Strategic Research Foundation at Private Universities, 2013–2017 (Project S1311036).

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JOURNAL

Composites

DOI

10.1016/j.compositesa.2023.107843 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Mechanical characteristics of reclaimed carbon fibre under superheated steam atmosphere and its feasibility for remanufacturing CFRP/CFRTP

 

Social assistance programs are an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of economic crises on child health

A study in Brazil analyzed the impact conditional cash transfers and social pensions on child mortality in the last two decades and forecasted how many lives they could save if expanded to cover those that have fallen into poverty due to the current economy

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BARCELONA INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL HEALTH (ISGLOBAL)

Social assistance programmes have strongly reduced child mortality in Brazil, and their expansion could prevent nearly 150.000 child deaths by 2030. The study, led by the Barcelona Institute of Global Health (ISGlobal), an institution supported by “la Caixa” Foundation, shows that social pensions and conditional cash transfers are an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of the current multiple global economic crises in low- and middle-income countries (LIMCs).

The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the current inflation rate have led to an increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty which now stands at 700 million, half of whom are children. In addition, more than one billion children live in multidimensional poverty, with unmet basic needs in health, education and nutrition. With a global economic recession looming, poverty-related disease and death, especially among children, could increase substantially in LMICs unless effective strategies are rapidly implemented.   

Brazil is one of the LMICs hardest hit by the current economic crisis. At the same time, the country has developed one of the largest social assistance strategies in recent decades, based on conditional cash transfers (CCT) for poor families (Programa Bolsa Família) and social pensions (SP) for the elderly and disabled (Benefício de Prestação Continuada).

“No study has ever estimated the joint impact of these two social assistance policies on child mortality or predicted the mitigating effects of both programmes in times of economic crisis such as the one we are currently experiencing,” explains Davide Rasella, ISGlobal researcher and coordinator of the study. To do this, he and his colleagues at the University of Bahia in Brazil retrospectively analysed the correlation between mortality rates for children under one year, one to four years and under five years for 2,548 municipalities across Brazil between 2004 and 2019, and the coverage of both programmes in the same municipalities.

Both progammes have saved many lives

The retrospective analysis shows that consolidated coverage of both programmes (above 60% for CCT and above 66% for SP) significantly reduced child mortality rates (between 13 and 16% reductions). The poorer the community, the greater the impact on reducing child mortality, especially in the case of CCT, which are more focused on extreme poverty. Cash transfers can contribute to reducing child mortality by enabling families to buy more and better food, as well as hygiene products or medicines. They also allow mothers to take a day off to take care of their sick child or take them to the hospital. They can also improve child health because they are linked to meeting certain health and education requirements. Regardless of the mechanisms, Rasella’s group has already shown the large impact of CCTs on child mortality in several Latin-American countries.

“The effect of social pensions, which are given to the elderly and disabled, was a bit more surprising and had not been described before,” says Rasella. They could help reduce child mortality if the elderly live with their extended families and children, and also because some of the disabled are children.

And could save many more if expanded

The research team then used models to predict how many lives these programmes could save in the coming years depending on whether their coverage remained the same (baseline), increased (mitigation), or decreased (fiscal austerity).  The models show that expanding the coverage of both programmes (mitigation strategy) could avert almost 150,000 child deaths by 2030, compared with the fiscal austerity scenario, which would lead to a considerable increase in child mortality.

“Our studies provide compelling evidence that reducing these programmes due to fiscal austerity measures would be extremely harmful to child health,” says Rasella. “On the contrary, they should be expanded to mitigate the impact of the current global crises on child mortality,” he adds.

 

Reference

Aransiola TJ, Ordoñez JA, Cavalcanti DM, de Sampaio GA, de Oliveria D, Rasella D. The combined effect of social pensions and cash transfers on child mortality: evaluating the last two decades in Brazil and projecting their mitigating effect during the global economic crisis. The Lancet Regional Health – Americas. Nov, 2023. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2023.100618

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JOURNAL

The Lancet Regional Health - Americas

DOI

10.1016/j.lana.2023.100618 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The combined effect of social pensions and cash transfers on child mortality: evaluating the last two decades in Brazil and projecting their mitigating effect during the global economic crisis

 

A nanosatellite and a hot air balloon for emergency broadband anywhere

A research team proposes a communications system enabling emergency services to work safely in difficult situations

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITAT OBERTA DE CATALUNYA (UOC)

Ninety-five per cent of the planet's population has access to broadband internet, via cable or a mobile network. However, there are still some places and situations in which staying connected can be very difficult. Quick responses are necessary in emergency situations, such as after an earthquake or during a conflict. So too are reliable telecommunications networks that are not susceptible to outages and damage to infrastructure, networks can be used to share data that is vital for people's well-being.

A recent scientific article, published as open access, proposes the use of nanosatellites to provide comprehensive and stable coverage in areas that are hard to reach using long-range communications. It is based on the bachelor's and master's degree final projects of Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) graduate David N. Barraca Ibort. Alongside Barraca Ibort, the paper is also authored by Raúl Parada, a researcher at the Telecommunications Technological Centre of Catalonia (CTTC/CERCA) and a course instructor with the UOC's Faculty of Computer Science, Multimedia and Telecommunications; Carlos Monzo, a researcher and member of the same faculty; and Víctor Monzón, a researcher at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Security Reliability and Trust at the University of Luxembourg.

From volcanoes to climate disasters: the importance of a quick response

The number and financial cost of extreme weather events has constantly increased in recent decades according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Climate change has vastly increased the likelihood of climate disasters occurring all over the planet. However, thanks to improvements to emergency and early warning services, the increase in extreme events has not led to an increase in the number of victims. The ability to anticipate and react to an emergency situation is crucial for minimizing damage.

Climate disasters are the latest additions to an already long list of natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides and tsunamis, and emergencies caused by humans, such as wars, accidents and damage to infrastructure. In all of those situations, having a reliable telecommunications system which can be used to exchange information is essential for reacting quickly and on a coordinated basis in situations in which every second counts.

This is where the technological solution proposed by the researcher team. "Our project provides a solution that means that a communications network to provide help in emergency situations can be established quickly," explained Monzo. "It uses equipment that offers a communications service quickly, when it would not otherwise be possible. It is especially designed for emergency services, so that they can work in a safer and more coordinated way in complex situations."

A printed satellite and a hot air balloon

The solution proposed by the researchers involves a rapid deployment system consisting of three components – two terrestrial and one non-terrestrial: a CubeSat (a nanosatellite design standard). The components on the ground are a pilot telecommunications station, deployed at the location where the emergency happens, and a base station. The CubeSat can connect the two places from anywhere, acting as a repeater and making it possible for users of the network to share information wirelessly. All three components are equipped with long-range (LoRa) radio technology, and allow for the creation of a vast communications area.

The CubeSat is a small nanosatellite that can be created from scratch using a 3D printer in just 90 minutes, and launched over the disaster area using a hot air balloon. The route that the balloon will follow can be determined by a prior simulation that takes the characteristics of the balloon and the meteorology of the area into account. The CubeSat is also equipped with a GPS system that means it can be retrieved and reused. “Our solution enables communication over long distances, as well as providing a scalable system for a large number of users that is reusable anywhere and at any time," said Parada, researcher with Sustainable Artificial Intelligence research unit at the CTTC.

"We chose CubeSat as for communications in difficult environments due to its speed of deployment and functioning," he said. "It operates independently of current communication systems, which may be damaged during a disaster, and enables long-range communication." After the first successful tests, the system will continue to be tested in different environments, and will also be subjected to experiments with an energy system powered by photovoltaic panels, so that the solution can be completely autonomous.

"Our solution is designed to provide a rapid service in complex scenarios, and as such we have prioritized its ease of deployment over its use as a telecommunications solution in normal situations, where other infrastructures would be more suitable," concluded Monzo. "The next step is to work on the services that could be included in this type of infrastructure, minimizing deployment times and ensuring it can be used in a wide range of situations."

 

This research contributes to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

 

UOC R&I

The UOC's research and innovation (R&I) is helping overcome pressing challenges faced by global societies in the 21st century by studying interactions between technology and human & social sciences with a specific focus on the network society, e-learning and e-health.

Over 500 researchers and more than 50 research groups work in the UOC's seven faculties, its eLearning Research programme and its two research centres: the Internet Interdisciplinary Institute (IN3) and the eHealth Center (eHC).

The university also develops online learning innovations at its eLearning Innovation Center (eLinC), as well as UOC community entrepreneurship and knowledge transfer via the Hubbik platform.

Open knowledge and the goals of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development serve as strategic pillars for the UOC's teaching, research and innovation. More information: research.uoc.edu.

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JOURNAL

Aerospace

DOI

10.3390/aerospace10090754 

 

“Wolves like cherry-picking”: Modelling shows how they recolonized Germany and where they could live in the future

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE FOR ZOO AND WILDLIFE RESEARCH (IZW)

 

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GREY WOLF (CANIS LUPUS) IN ITS PREFERRED HABITAT IN GERMANY

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CREDIT: PHOTO BY JAN ZWILLING/LEIBNIZ-IZW

The return of the grey wolf (Canis lupus) to Germany, which began 23 years ago in the region of Lusatia in Eastern Germany, is a process of great ecological and social significance. Therefore, a precise understanding of the recolonisation of the original habitat by the grey wolf and a reliable prediction of its future potential distribution are highly valuable. A detailed comparison of different approaches to spatial modelling using 20 years of distribution data now unravelled the complexity of the recolonisation process. A team led by scientists from the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (Leibniz-IZW) shows in a paper in the scientific journal Diversity and Distributions that grey wolf habitat selection changed from the early (when they cherry-pick the finest locations) to late phases of recolonisation (when they are much less selective) in a particular area. These results are a refinement of the team’s earlier habitat modelling from 2020, originally published by the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation.

Grey wolves prefer habitats with plenty of cover at a substantial distance from people, their settlements and roads. These preferences were demonstrated during their return to Germany in the 21st century, when they recolonised the habitat from which they had been extinguished 200 years earlier. Knowledge of such habitat requirements and associated preferences also allows predicting the further expansion of their current range in Germany in the future. In 2020, the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (BfN), in collaboration with a scientific team from the Department of Ecological Dynamics at the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (Leibniz-IZW), published a study on modelling suitable habitats.  In this study, the team calculated that there could potentially be space for around 700 to 1,400 wolf territories in Germany's natural areas. The scientists have now taken a closer look and tested a variety of approaches to spatio-temporal modelling with regard to different phases of recolonisation.

“There is reason to believe that the recolonisation of Germany by the grey wolf is not a so-called stationary process, but is characterised by changing framework conditions”, explains Prof Stephanie Kramer-Schadt, Head of the Department of Ecological Dynamics at the Leibniz-IZW. “Stationary processes in this case would mean that the wolves find the same or very similar environmental conditions in the regions into which they newly enter – and that they respond to the environmental conditions in the same way during all phases of the process.” Both assumptions appeared to be doubtful in the case of the recolonisation of Germany by the grey wolf. On the one hand, eastern Germany and the Rhine-Ruhr area in the west, for example, considerably differ in terms of the density of human infrastructure. On the other hand, wolves may show different or varying degrees of habitat preferences depending on whether they move in during the early, first phase or during the late, saturation phase of recolonisation.

“These questions are highly relevant for the quality of the predictions”, says first author Dr Aimara Planillo, a scientist at Kramer-Schadt's department at the IZW. “If models are developed on the basis of the specific environmental conditions of a particular region, they could underestimate the suitability of another, very different region to which such a model might be applied. At the same time, models created with data from early recolonisation phases may underestimate the suitability of habitats during the late phases – because the wolves during the early phase have a free choice to cherry-pick particular places and habitats and thus appear to be considerably more selective than they will be during the later phases. The reverse is also true: data from late recolonisation phases might suggest that wolves appear to be less selective, which is why the selectivity of their choice and use of habitats in newly colonised areas would probably be underestimated.”

This investigation was conducted by a team led by Dr Planillo and Prof Kramer-Schadt, in collaboration with scientists from LUPUS – the German Institute for Wolf Monitoring and Research –, the Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, the Technical Universities of Dresden and Berlin, the Humboldt University Berlin, the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation and the University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna. They tested a variety of modern modelling methods and algorithms with data from more than 20 years of wolf monitoring in Germany with particular attention to the potential pitfalls arising from the actual dynamics of the recolonization process. They developed the models on the basis of a combination of radio telemetry and observation data and tested how well they could predict subsequent phases of the colonisation process. “The new models confirmed our previous work in two ways”, conclude Planillo and Kramer-Schadt. “On the one hand, our projections from 2020 were proven to be largely accurate. Secondly, the sometimes significant differences to model forecasts of the various spatial phases of the process show that it is indeed non-stationary”, say the authors. “When recolonising an area, wolves always secure the best habitats first. It therefore appears that they are considerably more sensitive to environmental variables. Neighbouring second class sites are colonised just as reliably in later phases, as we were able to demonstrate in many regions of eastern Germany.” The team was thus able to validate their predictions and refine them in a more differentiated manner. “Spatio-temporal projections of habitats of expanding species should be carried out with great caution”, they conclude.

The most important factors for habitats to be suitable for wolves are close proximity to forests or cover-rich areas and a large distance from roads. The best habitats for wolves are found in the north and northeast as well as in the south of Germany, whereas habitats of lower quality tend to be found in the west. In the south of Bavaria and in some forest areas of central Germany (in the Harz Mountains as well as in the Spessart, Odenwald and Rhön), larger habitats of high quality are still unoccupied by wolves at the time the team ran the analysis. It is likely that the first wolves to arrive there will first settle in prime locations – which by now has already happened according to the most recent data – and colonise medium-quality locations over time. “With regards to our latest modelling and similar experiences from other European countries, where habitats of lower quality are also used permanently when wolf densities are high, previous habitat modelling tends to be too conservative”, says Kramer-Schadt. “However, they provide a good spatial forecast for the initial colonisation of new habitats.”

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JOURNAL

Diversity and Distributions

DOI

10.1111/ddi.13789 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

 

New global stocktake: Healthy forests could store much more carbon

Large international study combines satellite and ground data

Peer-Reviewed Publication

GFZ GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM POTSDAM, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE

 

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MARTIN HEROLD HEADS THE GFZ SECTION REMOTE SENSING AND GEOINFORMATICS. HE SAYS: "OUR STRONG MONITORING INFRASTRUCTURES MAKE US AN EXCELLENT AND GLOBALLY VISIBLE PARTNER FOR SUCH IMPORTANT GLOBAL ANALYSES ON KEY ISSUES SUCH AS HOW WE CAN BEST EVALUATE AND MANAGE OUR CARBON STOCKS IN TERMS OF CLIMATE AND SUSTAINABILITY.” 

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CREDIT: FOTO BY GFZ

Natural carbon reservoirs will play a major role at the COP28 world climate conference in the United Arab Emirates. After oceans and soils, forests are the largest "sinks" for carbon, i.e. they absorb an enormous amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Exactly how much this is and how much more it could be with better forest management is a difficult question. In a recent study in the scientific journal “Nature”, a team of more than two hundred researchers worldwide presents new estimates of the storage potential. The study was coordinated by ETH Zurich, important methodological contributions came from GFZ.

According to the study, forests could ideally absorb 328 billion tons (gigatons, Gt for short) of carbon. However, as many formerly forested areas are now used for agriculture and as settlement areas, the potential is reduced to 226 Gt. 139 Gt of this (61%) could be achieved by protecting existing forests alone. The remaining 87 Gt (39%) could be realized by reconnecting previously fragmented forest landscapes and managing them sustainably.

Forests under pressure

Previous studies, which relied heavily on statistical evaluations and extrapolations, had arrived at results of a similar order of magnitude. As a comparison, the storage potential of 226 Gt is offset by annual emissions of just under 11 Gt of carbon (equivalent to 40 Gt of carbon dioxide).

However, instead of protecting forests and managing them sustainably, deforestation is continuing worldwide. Added to this is the almost unabated emission of greenhouse gases, which is accelerating global warming and thus putting forests under even more pressure.

Methodology

To arrive at their results, the researchers linked satellite data with surveys of forest condition and biomass taken from the ground. They also integrated data on carbon storage in forest soils with dead wood and litter. “The new paper is based on much better data and in this sense offers a better quantification of the potential than previous work,” says Martin Herold, one of the co-authors of the study and head of the GFZ Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics Section. He emphasizes how important it is to “systematically combine satellite and ground-based carbon measurements, which opens up new ways of understanding global carbon stocks and potentials”.

GFZ an important global partner for carbon stocktaking

The space-based biomass analysis originates mainly from GFZ, although GFZ has also contributed with soil data as part of a global network. Martin Herold: “The GFZ has invested heavily in such integrated surveys in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Our strong monitoring infrastructures make us an excellent and globally visible partner for such important global analyses on key issues such as how we can best evaluate and manage our carbon stocks in terms of climate and sustainability.”

Behind this are also strategic questions for the GFZ: How can we best monitor and quantify changes on our dynamic planet? How can we improve our understanding of georesources and use them sustainably?

Original study: Lidong Mo, Constantin M. Zohner et al.: Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential (Nature, 2023); https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

 

JOURNAL

Nature

DOI

10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

ARTICLE TITLE

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

16-Nov-2023