North Dakota Oil Production Climbing Back Faster Than Anticipated

By Julianne Geiger - Jan 26, 2024

North Dakota’s production of crude oil is returning to full force at a quicker pace than first suggested by authorities, new data from the state’s regulator showed on Friday.

Crude oil production in the Peace Garden State is now down by between 30,000 and 80,000 bpd after extreme cold led to operational challenges. Associated natural gas production—the natural gas produced as a byproduct of crude oil production—was estimated to be down 0.10 and .22 Bcfd.

Extreme weather cut crude oil production in North Dakota by hundreds of thousands of barrels. At the peak of the production outages due to the cold temperatures, 650,000 bpd—roughly half of what North Dakota typically produces—was taken offline. Just a week ago, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority said that production had clawed back to settle at just 350,000 – 400,000 bpd, but cautioned that it could be another month before its production returned to normal.

Today’s data, however, suggests that production could return to normal before a month, with less than 80,000 bpd of crude production remaining offline.

Production outages from the Bakken—one of the largest deposits of crude oil and natural gas in the United States—and disruption of oil tanker traffic due to fears about traversing the Red Sea have contributed to a rise in crude oil prices. On Friday, WTI was trading at $76.94—a $2.80 rise from a month ago. Brent crude was more than $3 less than what it is today.

The Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and U.S. production outages have perhaps made OPEC+’s job a bit easier as it tries to curb oil production to keep oil markets in check.

In other North Dakota’ oil news, the state’s Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms, who held office during North Dakota’s oil boom that catapulted it to the nation’s third-most prolific oil producer, announced on Thursday that he is retiring effective June 30.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

Machine Learning: The Key to Efficient Fuel Cell Development

By Brian Westenhaus - Jan 25, 2024

• The team identified two new materials with unique crystal structures, potentially enhancing proton conductivity for fuel cells.
• 
  
• Their approach utilizes machine learning to predict optimal combinations of base and dopant candidates, speeding up the discovery process.
• 
  
• While current performance of these materials is low, further research could improve their efficiency, contributing to the development of a hydrogen-based society.

Researchers at Kyushu University, in collaboration with Osaka University and the Fine Ceramics Center, have developed a framework that uses machine learning to speed up the discovery of materials for green energy technology.

Using the new approach, the researchers identified and successfully synthesized two new candidate materials for use in solid oxide fuel cells – devices that can generate energy using fuels like hydrogen, which don’t emit carbon dioxide.

Their findings, which were reported in the journal, Advanced Energy Materials, (available by open access at posting) could also be used to accelerate the search for other innovative materials beyond the energy sector.

Professor Yoshihiro Yamazaki, of Kyushu University’s Department of Materials Science and Technology, Platform of Inter-/Transdisciplinary Energy Research (Q-PIT) explained, “One path to carbon neutrality is by creating a hydrogen society. However, as well as optimizing how hydrogen is made, stored and transported, we also need to boost the power-generating efficiency of hydrogen fuel cells.”

To generate an electric current, solid oxide fuel cells need to be able to efficiently conduct hydrogen ions (or protons) through a solid material, known as an electrolyte.

Currently, research into new electrolyte materials has focused on oxides with very specific crystal arrangements of atoms, known as a perovskite structure.

Professor Yamazaki said, “The first proton-conducting oxide discovered was in a perovskite structure, and new high-performing perovskites are continually being reported. But we want to expand the discovery of solid electrolytes to non-perovskite oxides, which also have the capability of conducting protons very efficiently.”

However, discovering proton-conducting materials with alternative crystal structures via traditional “trial and error” methods has numerous limitations.

For an electrolyte to gain the ability to conduct protons, small traces of another substance, known as a dopant, must be added to the base material. But with many promising base and dopant candidates – each with different atomic and electronic properties – finding the optimal combination that enhances proton conductivity becomes difficult and time-consuming.

Instead, the researchers calculated the properties of different oxides and dopants. They then used machine learning to analyze the data, identify the factors that impact the proton conductivity of a material, and predict potential combinations.

Guided by these factors, the researchers then synthesized two promising materials, each with unique crystal structures, and assessed how well they conducted protons. Remarkably, both materials demonstrated proton conductivity in just a single experiment.

One of the materials, the researchers highlighted, is the first-known proton conductor with a sillenite crystal structure. The other, which has a eulytite structure, has a high-speed proton conduction path that is distinct from the conduction paths seen in perovskites.

Currently, the performance of these oxides as electrolytes is low, but with further exploration, the research team believes their conductivity can be improved.

Professor Yamazaki concluded with, “Our framework has the potential to greatly expand the search space for proton-conducting oxides, and therefore significantly accelerate advancements in solid oxide fuel cells. It’s a promising step forward to realizing a hydrogen society. With minor modifications, this framework could also be adapted to other fields of materials science, and potentially accelerate the development of many innovative materials.”

***

This is welcome news. We’ve been looking intently for years in hopes of practical consumer fuel cells for consumer and business products. So far they exist in rare form at high expense with precious metal construction.

This technology offers some improvement in furthering research. But a couple proton conductor candidates do not solve the array of issues mass market fuel cells need solved to get to market.

Fuel cells look to still be a ways off. A step closer now, but it looks like there are quite a few steps yet to go.

By Brian Westenhaus via New Energy and Fuel

High Energy Prices Weigh On European Steelmakers

By Metal Miner - Jan 25, 2024

• Liberty Steel Ostrava has halted operations due to energy supply suspension and unresolved financial issues.
• 
  
• The plant, a significant player in European steel manufacturing, faces an uncertain future with a prolonged shutdown.
• 
  
• ArcelorMittal's involvement and the wider impact on the European steel industry highlight the sector's vulnerabilities amid economic challenges.
• 
  

Workers at flats producer Liberty Steel Ostrava in the Czech Republic did not return to work on January 16, despite local media reports stating that workers agreed to resume working on this date. The Daily Denik noted that there were a couple of other “return dates” set for the steel manufacturing plant, including January 3 and January 9.

“Employees at Liberty Ostrava continue to overcome so-called other obstacles by the employer until January 22, when we will inform them of further developments in the situation,” the publication quoted plant spokeswoman Kate?ina Zají?ková as saying. Zají?ková was unavailable for comment, despite several attempts by MetalMiner (these updates and more in MetalMiner’s weekly newsletter).

The Ostrava plant stopped all operations back in December. On December 21, energy supplier Tameh suspended supplies to the plant after declaring bankruptcy, citing the lack of payments from the steelmaker. On January 12, local media reported that a regional court in Ostrava recently ordered Liberty to pay K?‎ 500 million ($21.9 million) in outstanding debts to Tameh. Howeever, that order only came after a court declared a three-month moratorium on all of Ostrava’s debt payments and appointed a restructuring trustee.

Blast Furnace Shutdown Raises Concerns Over Europe’s Steel Manufacturing

Weak steel demand in Europe prompted Liberty Steel Ostrava to take its single operating blast furnace off-stream in October. At the time, the facility cited high gas prices and poor economic circumstances within Europe as causes for the shutdown. Plant managers initially scheduled the stoppage for two weeks. However, as of mid-January 2024, it did not restart, painting a somewhat grim picture of the Czech steel manufacturing hub’s future.

The plant at Ostrava can produce up to 3.5 million metric tons of crude steel per year, which it casts into slab, square billet and round billet. These are then used for rolling into hot rolled coil, merchant bar, and seamless tubes. In addition, the site posesses a pipe mill for the production of spiral-welded, welded tube, and OCTG-grade pipes.

Liberty Steel Ostrava’s Connection to ArcelorMittal

ArcelorMittal owns a 50% stake in the Ostrava plant’s energy products, Tameh, which is a joint venture with Polish energy company Tauron. A Singapore court recently granted ArcelorMittal a €150 million ($163 million) freeze order against Liberty for the outstanding balance on the sales of Ostrava, including Romanian steelmaker Galati.

Liberty Steel agreed to acquire Ostrava from ArcelorMittal in 2018. This was mainly because European regulators previously required the Luxembourg-headquartered group to sell the plant as part of its acquisition of Italian steelmaker Ilva, now known as Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI). Incidentally, ArcelorMittal now holds 62% of that company.

However, a January 15 report by Reuters stated that an Italian court recently gave the green light to energy companies to cut gas supplies to ADI. Similar to the Czech Republic, higher gas prices and poor economic circumstances all across Europe continue to impact steel demand and the Ostrava plant.

ADI Steel Manufacturing Increasing

ADI’s main plant at Taranto, in southern Italy, rolls plate and hot rolled coil via six basic oxygen converters. The site also has a tube and pipe mill, which produces welded and spiral-welded tubes. Further downstream, Taranto also produces cold rolled, hot dipped, and electrolytic galvanized coil.

Reports noted that ADI plans to produce up to 5 million metric tons of crude steel in 2024 (read the five best practices of sourcing steel, both in and outside of Europe). This would represent a two-thirds increase from the 3 million metric tons it poured in 2022. That said, the Reuters report noted that the company currently has €200 million ($217 million) in outstanding payments to state-owned gas grid supplier Snam. Meanwhile, debts to energy provider Eni were €104 million at the end of H1 2023.

India to Become Single Most Important Driver of Oil Demand Growth

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 24, 2024, 

• High GDP growth, industrialization, urbanization, and a rising number of middle class in India are set to drive demand growth in the Asian country.
• 
  
• Total Indian refining capacity is expected to increase by 22% in five years from the current 254 million metric tons per year.
• 
  
• All major forecasters expect India to replace China as the biggest driver of global oil demand growth in the long term, which should happen before 2030.
• 
  

Before the end of this decade, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, India, is set to become the single biggest driver of global oil demand, replacing China, analysts and forecasters say.  

India’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past year. Meanwhile, growth in other major economies—including China—has sputtered. High GDP growth, industrialization, urbanization, and a rising number of middle class in India are all expected to shift the key oil demand growth driver from China onto India.  

Some analysts, such as Rystad Energy, expect India’s crude oil demand growth to shrink to 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 from 290,000 bpd in 2023. 

Despite these predictions of slower demand growth, India is boosting its refining capacity. The country should add 1.12 million bpd to its current total each year until 2028, a junior oil minister told India’s parliament last month.

Total Indian refining capacity is expected to increase by 22% in five years from the current 254 million metric tons per year, which are equal to around 5.8 million bpd, Rameswar Teli said. The government expects the boost to refining capacity to be “adequate” to meet the country’s fuel demand in the long term.

India’s economy is growing faster than all other major economies, and so is its demand for energy.  

All major forecasters expect India to replace China as the biggest driver of global oil demand growth in the long term, which should happen before 2030. Related: Russia Builds Out Arctic Oil Route As Middle East Tensions Escalate

In 2023, oil consumption in India hit a record high of 231 million tons, up from 219 million tons in 2022, according to data from the Indian Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas cited by Reuters market analyst John Kemp.

Besides being a major oil importer, India isn’t shying away from buying crude from whoever offers the lowest price. Over the past year, India has become a top buyer of Russian crude oil, alongside China, taking advantage of the discounts at which Russian grades are being offered compared to international benchmarks. 

India buys from abroad more than 80% of the crude oil it consumes. Over the past year and a half, the country has significantly raised its imports of cheaper Russian crude oil, which is banned in the West.

India sees its oil supplier base as diversified as it is buying crude from 39 sources at present, compared to 27 sources previously, Indian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, said in August last year.  

“If there’s a 30% discount, the Russians are putting a ribbon around it and sending it to us free. That’s what it means,” the minister told CNBC.

India is thus looking to make opportunistic spot purchases on top of its term sale agreements to meet its growing oil demand, which is only expected to rise in the coming decades. 

Economic growth is much higher than in any of the other major economies and is expected to remain robust in the near and medium term, Indian authorities and international investment banks say. 

Earlier this month, India’s National Statistical Office (NSO) said that real GDP growth during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.3%, up from 7.2% growth in 2022-23. 

“With strong domestic demand conditions, India remains the fastest growing major economy and is now the fifth largest economy in the world,” Shaktikanta Das, Governor of Reserve Bank of India, said in Davos last week.

“Strong domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, although there has been a significant increase in Indian economy’s global integration through trade and financial channels. Higher reliance on domestic demand cushioned India from multiple external headwinds,” the central bank governor added.

The strong economy would raise demand for oil, as will continued urbanization and industrialization, analysts say. 

India will be the driver of oil demand growth through 2045, expected to add 6.6 million bpd to oil demand over the forecast period, OPEC said in its latest annual outlook, in which it raised significantly its long-term projections and now expects global oil demand at around 116 million bpd in 2045, up by 6 million bpd compared to the previous assessment, as energy consumption continues to grow and will need all forms of energy.  

Analysts at Bernstein see India as the biggest growth driver over the next 20 years. 

“India has been less important, but, going forward, India is expected to be the most important single region driving demand growth over the next 20 years, making it a key country to watch for future demand,” Bernstein wrote in a note last month as carried by Business Insider.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

Toyota Chairman Questions EV Market Future

By ZeroHedge - Jan 24, 2024,

• Chairman Akio Toyoda doubts EVs will ever reach 30% of global market share, citing electricity access issues in parts of the world.
• 
  
• Toyota has been hesitant to fully adopt EV technology, focusing instead on hybrids and exploring hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
• 
  
• Recent market trends show a slump in EV demand, with used Tesla prices falling and companies like Ford adjusting their EV production strategies.
• 
  

Toyota's chairman and former CEO, Akio Toyoda, is at it again: providing the public with a dose of reality that electric vehicles will never dominate the global car market.

Toyoda, grandson of the founder of the world's largest car manufacturer, expressed at a business event this month, as reported by The Telegraph, that EVs will never capture 30% of global market share. 

He explained that petrol-burning vehicles and hybrids, along with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, will dominate. 

Toyoda made the point: How can EVs be the future when a billion people on Earth have no electricity? 

Data from Statista shows nearly a billion people in the world are living without electricity.

He noted: "Customers — not regulations or politics — should make that decision." 

Over the years, Toyota has openly demonstrated defiance against governments and NGOs pushing for 100% EVs in just a few decades, if not earlier. 

In October, Toyoda told reporters at an auto show in Japan that EVs aren't the silver bullet against the supposed ills of carbon emissions they're often made out to be.

Toyota has a history of being at the forefront of adopting new technologies. However, its slow EV adoption is because of its mistrust of lithium-ion batteries, and it has positioned itself to be a leader in hybrid vehicles.  

Perhaps Toyoda has been vindicated to some extent as EV demand slumps. 

In recent days, Ford announced plans to slash production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning in April "to achieve the optimal balance of production, sales growth and profitability." 

For those who purchased EVs during the Covid mania, the average price of a used Tesla has collapsed. 

And used Tesla prices are likely to slide more as rental car company Hertz Global Holdings has decided to dump 20,000 EVs onto the already sliding used car market.  

BloombergNEF data shows prices of EVs that were part of rental car fleets have also crashed. 

Toyoda concluded: "Engines will surely remain."

Will Elon Musk respond to Toyoda's comments?

By Zerohedge.com

Russia Builds Out Arctic Oil Route As Middle East Tensions Escalate

By Simon Watkins - Jan 24, 2024,

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long seen the development of the country’s Arctic resources as one of its core strategically vital projects.

Russia is looking to keep open the arctic Northern Sea Route all year long.

This year, Russia decided to build another cargo base plus 14 additional terminals along the route from Murmansk to Vladivostok.


This year will see a major push by Russia to ensure that the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which is vital for shipping minerals, oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its huge Arctic operations, remains fully functional all year round, according to a senior Moscow-based oil analyst exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com last week. Given the hostile climate in the region, ships have been unable to sail at all during March, April, and May, and have struggled to do so at other times as well. This new impetus comes as Russia faces new sanctions on its energy deliveries following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and as escalating tensions around the Red Sea cause increased dangers for shipping through key Middle Eastern routes. “33 million tonnes of cargo was moved in 2021, 34 million [tonnes] in 2022, and just over 36 million [tonnes] last year,” said the Moscow-based analyst. “Rosatom [the Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation, which manages a fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers, among other things] and Novatek [Russia’s second-largest gas producer and spearheading its Arctic LNG developments] have told the Far East and Arctic Development Ministry that they can support an increase to 100 million tonnes by 2026 and 200 million tonnes [or cargo] by 2030,” he added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long seen the development of the country’s Arctic resources as one of its core strategically vital projects, as analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. One reason for this is the sheer size of its gas and oil reserves there, estimated at around 35.7 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of gas and over 2.3 billion metric tons of oil and condensate. The majority of these are located in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, lying on the south side of the Kara Sea. An adjunct to this is that much of its gas resources there have been earmarked for a major advance in the country’s LNG output, as Putin has also long believed that Russia’s presence in that market does not reflect its enormous presence in the broader world gas and oil market. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, LNG has also become the ‘swing emergency gas’ product for many major economies, given sanctions imposed on its natural gas and oil exports. LNG is readily available in the spot markets and can be moved very quickly to anywhere required, unlike gas or oil sent through pipelines. Unlike pipelined energy as well, the movement of LNG does not require the build-out of vast acreage of pipelines across varying terrains and the associated heavy infrastructure that supports it. Related: Red Sea Shipping Crisis Rekindles Inflation Fears

Another reason why Russia’s Arctic oil and gas reserves are so important to Putin is that they can be seamlessly delivered to China through the NSR. It is true that over the past 30 years, there has been a turnaround in the power relationship between the two former great Communist powers, with Beijing now the more dominant partner. Crucially, though, it is also true that Russia’s enormous oil and gas reserves still give it some leverage with China. Its oil and gas flows into the country mean that Moscow can continue to count on the military and political force-multiplier effect of China as a major presence in the Asia Pacific theatre of potential conflict, if not directly in the European one. In precisely this vein, around the same time as the invasion of Ukraine, Russian state gas giant Gazprom signed a deal to supply 10 billion cubic metre per year (bcm/y) of gas to the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). This built on another 30-year deal between the two companies signed in 2014 for 38 bcm/y and this in turn was a part of, but significantly bolstered, the ‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline project – managed on the Russian side by Gazprom and on the China side by CNPC – that was launched in December 2019. Given Russia’s poor performance in the Ukraine war to date, the force multiplier effect of Moscow’s relationship with Beijing has never been more important to it. Aside from remaining a menacing presence in the background, China’s technology and expertise has made possible the array of weaponry that has been supplied to Russia from Iran for use in Ukraine. Beijing’s hold over Iran was firmly established in the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order.

A final key reason at play in Russia’s Arctic gas and oil drive is its capacity to subvert the U.S. dollar-based hegemony in the energy market, as also analysed in my new book, particularly as it features one of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers and one of its biggest buyers. Very early in the Arctic LNG projects’ history, Novatek’s chief executive officer, Leonid Mikhleson, said that future sales to China denominated in renminbi were under consideration. This was in line with his comments on the prospect of further U.S. sanctions - following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 - that they would only accelerate the process of Russia trying to switch away from U.S. dollar-centric oil and gas trading. “This has been discussed for a while with Russia’s largest trading partners such as India and China, and even Arab countries are starting to think about it... If they do create difficulties for our Russian banks then all we have to do is replace dollars,” he said. Such a strategy was tested in 2014, when the state-run Gazprom Neft tried trading of cargoes of crude oil in Chinese yuan and roubles with China and Europe, to reduce Russia’s dependence on crude trading in dollars, in response to the initial Western sanctions against Russia’s energy sector

As it stands, according to the Moscow-based oil analyst, at a meeting last May between Putin and several key figures connected to the development of the NSR, it was decided that new developments would include the building of another cargo base plus 14 additional terminals along the route from Murmansk to Vladivostok, the creation of a new satellite network connected with the NSR (allowing for near real-time ice monitoring), centralising ship navigation control with Rosatom, and expanding the fleet of tankers and ice-breakers. At the same time, Russia is forging ahead with its Arctic LNG projects, the most recent notable development of which is Arctic LNG 2. This aims for three LNG trains (manufacturing facilities) of 6.6 million metric tonnes per annum (mmtpa) each, based around the gas resources of the Utrenneye field, which has at least 1,138 billion cubic metres of natural gas and 57 million tons of liquids in reserves. The first train was successfully delivered last August on the western shore of the Gydan Peninsula in West Siberia. The second and third trains are expected online this year and in 2026, respectively.

The project is also emblematic of Putin’s attempts to make Russia’s Arctic LNG projects as ‘sanction-proof’ as possible, as also analysed in my new book on the new global oil market order. This meant Russian company Novatek – the key developer of Yamal LNG (and the later Arctic LNG 2) - becoming as self-sufficient as possible in this regard. Consequently, Novatek aimed to localise the fabrication and construction of LNG trains and modules to decrease the overall cost of liquefaction and develop a technological base within Russia, and it made great progress in realising this. As part of this objective, Novatek developed the ‘Arctic Cascade’ process for creating LNG. This is based on a two-stage liquefaction process that capitalises on the colder ambient temperature in the Arctic climate to maximise energy efficiency during the liquefaction process and was the first patented liquefaction technology using equipment produced only by Russian manufacturers. Having said this, moves are afoot from the U.S. to roll out further sanctions aimed at undermining Russia’s Arctic LNG ambitions, partly through blocking sales of technology still needed by Novatek and others, and partly by blocking sales of Russian LNG in full.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

 

Nuclear Waste: Small in Volume, Big in Energy Discussions

By ZeroHedge - Jan 26, 2024, 

• Nuclear waste is categorized into four types based on its level of hazardousness and disposal needs.
• 
  
• High-level waste, often a focus of safety concerns, constitutes less than 0.25% of total radioactive waste.
• 
  
• Compared to other industrial activities, the volume of waste produced by the nuclear power industry is relatively small.
• 
  

Nuclear power is among the safest and cleanest sources of electricity, making it a critical part of the clean energy transition.

However, nuclear waste, an inevitable byproduct, is often misunderstood.

In collaboration with the National Public Utilities Council, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti created the following graphic to show the volume of all existing nuclear waste, categorized by its level of hazardousness and disposal requirements, based on data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Storage and Disposal

Nuclear provides about 10% of global electricity generation.

Nuclear waste, produced as a result of this, can be divided into four different types:

• Very low-level waste: Waste suitable for near-surface landfills, requiring lower containment and isolation.
• Low-level waste: Waste needing robust containment for up to a few hundred years, suitable for disposal in engineered near-surface facilities.
• Intermediate-level waste: Waste that requires a greater degree of containment and isolation than that provided by near-surface disposal.
• High-level waste: Waste is disposed of in deep, stable geological formations, typically several hundred meters below the surface.

Despite safety concerns, high-level radioactive waste constitutes less than 0.25% of total radioactive waste reported to the IAEA.

Stored and disposed radioactive waste reported to the IAEA under the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management. Data is from the last reporting year which varies by reporting country, 2019-2023.

The amount of waste produced by the nuclear power industry is small compared to other industrial activities.

While flammable liquids comprise 82% of the hazardous materials shipped annually in the U.S., radioactive waste accounts for only 0.01%.