In Russia’s war economy, civilians chase butter and potatoes

Mark O'NeillJanuary 01, 2025 
EUROPEAN JOURNAL

The white carpet of a snow-covered field in western Russia is pockmarked by corpses of Russian and North Korean soldiers killed during ‘meat assaults’ on foot. The family of each dead Russian is promised US$54,000 by the state.

At a supermarket in Moscow, the price of a pack of high-grade butter has risen 34 per cent in one year to 240 roubles (US$2.47). Over the same period, potatoes have risen 95 per cent, cabbage 38 per cent, beetroot 34 per cent and olive oil 31 per cent, according to Rosstat, the official statistics bureau.

Welcome to Russia’s “total-war economy”. Defence and security account for eight per cent of GDP and 40 per cent of total federal spending, the highest level since the Cold War. Short of new recruits, Russia has raised the average enlistment bonus to US$11,000, compared to an average annual salary of US$13,300.

The defence sector is booming, the rest of the economy is suffering. Interest rates are at a record 21 per cent, inflation this month is 9.5 per cent. Non-military companies are struggling to pay debts and raise money. Ralf Ringer, the country’s shoe manufacturer, was declared bankrupt this month. Since August, the rouble has fallen about 20 per cent to the U.S. dollar.

On December 18, the Russian Council of Shopping Centres said that 25 per cent of the country’s shopping centres risk closure in 2025, due to the sharply higher interest rates, higher taxes and the loss of foreign goods.

The defence sector has hired thousands of workers to work three shifts a day, with some salaries rising by 45 per cent in the first half of the year. As a result, unemployment has fallen to 2.3 per cent. There is a shortage of 1.5 million highly skilled workers, especially in construction, transport and utilities, deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said this month.

The war is not economically productive. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army, since it launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has lost 772,280 killed, wounded and missing, including 1,860 in the single day of last Saturday. Payments to families of the dead and care of the wounded and handicapped will cost the state billions of roubles over decades.

Russia says it has “liberated” about 20 per cent of Ukraine, in the east. To do this, it has reduced cities and towns to ruins and destroyed their factories and infrastructure. If it retains these territories in a post-war settlement, reconstruction of them will require colossal investment, with no help from the western world.

Butter is a good example of the price the civilian economy is paying. It is a staple food of the Russian diet. One quarter of its supply comes from abroad. Since the invasion, New Zealand, Australia and Latin America have banned butter exports to Russia. Belarus, India, Iran and Turkey stepped in to replace them.

Russian banks are cut off from the global Swift financial system. This forces importers and middlemen to find new, and more expensive, ways to finance the imports.

Butter has become a treasured commodity, sought by criminal gangs. In October, a CCTV video from a Moscow supermarket posted online showed a man stealing 25 packets of butter. When confronted by a shop assistant, he tries to escape, and a fight breaks out. Many shops have put their butter in locked cages; those wanting to buy it must ask staff to open them.

Meanwhile, images from the frontline becomes increasingly apocalyptic. They show Russians in their 50s and 60s practising, clumsily, to load machine guns as they prepare for the front. Another, in his 60s, is lured out of his trench by Ukrainians pretending to be Russian soldiers. They arrest him.

One who is captured explains to an interview: “there were 100 soldiers for breakfast and seven for dinner. To try to prevent us surrendering, our commanders use drones to follow us everywhere, with the threat to fire if we attempt it.”

Drones, used by both sides, provide astonishing battlefield coverage. A Ukrainian drone follows North Korean soldiers through a wheat field. Unprepared for this kind of warfare, they run terrified, trying to escape.

The Ukrainian army has dropped leaflets in Korean, urging them to surrender and go to South Korea the next day. “You have been sold”, one leaflet says. According to South Korean intelligence, Putin is paying US$2,000 per month to each North Korean soldier – but most of this goes to their government, not the individual.

In a single line, Russian tanks and armed personnel carriers cross a snow-covered field with no tree cover, making them sitting ducks for Ukrainian drones and artillery.

As the world prepares to celebrate the birth of the son of God, we look at the bloodshed in Ukraine and the poverty in Russia and wonder how we humans have come to this.

Mark O'Neill

A Hong Kong-based writer, teacher and speaker.

Slovakia faces cut-off of Russian gas pipeline supplies 

From January the Ukrainian pipeline will only accept supplies coming westwards. / bne IntelliNews

By Albin Sybera in Bratislava December 31, 2024

Russian gas flows via the Brotherhood pipeline across Ukraine will end at midnight on December 31, cutting the last operating direct pipeline link from Russia to the West. From next year the Ukrainian pipeline will only accept supplies coming westwards.

For Slovakia – the entry point of the pipeline into the EU – Ukraine’s move to end the gas transit is likely to raise gas prices and cut transit income but it will be manageable, analysts argue, yet it will worsen already bad relations between Bratislava and Kyiv.

To try to avert the gas cut-off, Slovakia’s populist Prime Minister Robert Fico – who, like Hungary’s Viktor Orban increasingly parrots Russian narratives of its bloody invasion of Ukraine – flew to Moscow to meet Russian dictator Vladimir Putin before Christmas. Fico also flew to Brussels in an unsuccessful attempt to try to persuade the European Commission of the country’s urgent need for pipeline gas supplies.

Fico  – only the third EU premier to visit Moscow since its invasion of Ukraine – offered to hold supposed “peace talks” between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy and Putin to end the fighting, an offer that Zelinskiy spurned. 

“The billions of euros from Russian gas are being used to kill civilians in Ukraine,” Zelenskiy said in response to Fico’s mission, adding that “when Slovakia says they can lose money or that it will be expensive to buy non-Russian gas, Ukraine has lost much more – we’re losing people”.

Zelenskiy also accused Fico of being instructed by Putin to "open a second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the interests of the Slovak population".

Fico retaliated by even threatening to cut off Slovak power exports to electricity-hungry Ukraine if the gas cut-off goes ahead (it supplies 19% of the country’s power), prompting Poland to offer alternative supplies.

Ukraine sees the end of Russian gas transit as a way of putting further pressure on the struggling Russian economy and  refused to budge on ending pipeline transit with the contract extension set to expire at the end of December.

Russian provided some 35-40% of EU gas imports before its invasion of Ukraine, a proportion that has now halved, with some 15 bcm being exported to the EU in 2023. Think-tank Bruegel estimated that Russia would lose $6.5bn from the end of the flow, while Ukraine would lose $1bn in fees.

Russian supplies to the bloc continue via LNG purchases and the Turkish Stream pipeline via Bulgaria. The Brotherhood pipeline is estimated to have supplied around 5% of the EU's gas imports.

In 2024 some 18% of EU gas imports came from Russia, half the pre-war levels but slightly up from 15% in 2023, with Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Bulgaria the countries that are still the most dependent on Russian gas. They are also among the countries that have made the least effort to find alternative supplies.

Slovakia can secure non-Russian supplies

But Slovak analysts argue that the country can adapt to the end of Russian pipeline supplies and that Fico’s stance has more to do with his close political ties with Orban and Putin, the cosy private business links that both countries continue to have with Russia, and his domestic political problems, rather than energy security.

Slovakia has already demonstrated the ability to get through the winter without Russian gas, Slovakia’s energy analysts point out. Slovak gas reserves are currently three quarters full.

Slovakia’s continued imports of Russian energy is “not a question of energy security”, Alexander Duleba, senior research fellow at the Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA), told bne IntelliNews, explaining that Slovakia will have a sufficient amount of gas.  Duleba highlights that Slovakia survived the last winter practically without Russian imports.

“The consumption of Russian gas fell from 100% in the winter of 2021-22  to 8% in the winter of 2022-23”, he says, pointing out that the country imported 35% of gas from Norway via Czechia and Germany, while securing another 30% from LNG imports. 

Additionally, this was accomplished without the capacities provided by the Polish Świnoujście LNG terminal, which completed its expansion in 2023, opening another route for imports to Slovakia. 

Slovakia and its energy companies – including the state gas group SPP and gas transporter Eustream, where EPH of Czech energy and media oligarch Daniel Křetínský has a 49% stake and managerial control – “managed to secure a sufficient amount of gas” without Russia, Duleba says, adding that now Slovakia has a contract with Norway is extended, “so at least 35% can be imported from Norway”.  

Radovan Potočár, editor-in-chief of the Slovak energy-focused outlet Energie Portal,  says that Fico’s stance is mainly for political reasons. He told bne Intellinews in Bratislava last month that ultimately the government has the tools to intervene in energy price policy.

“Fico does not have to point a finger at Ukraine, he wants to do that,” Potočár observes.  

In mid-December, Fico’s cabinet confirmed it will continue subsidising energy prices, and Saková’s ministry estimated the additional costs of subsidising energy prices will amount to €291.5mn.    

Local businesses eye the return of transit profits

SPP – which secures some 3 bcm  for the Slovak market, or about 65% of market gas consumption – is still backing Fico’s left-right government in pushing for the prolongation of gas transit, because Russian gas is cheaper. 

“If SPP […] were to lose the gas imports from the east and the whole needed volume was purchased from another source and physically imported to Slovakia, it would cost us an additional €150mn,” Vojtech Ferencz, CEO of SPP, told the country’s media ahead of Fico’s talks in Brussels and Moscow. Ferencz joined Minister of Economy Denisa Saková in negotiations with Gazprom boss Alexei Miller.   

Ferencz argued that the additional costs will be reflected in gas prices on the market, and “if a cold winter comes, the situation can cause a lack of gas and difficulties with its supplies in all of Europe”.  

According to Zelenskiy, Fico claimed during the talks in Brussels that the costs Slovakia will incur with the ending of gas transit through Ukraine are €500mn, in which he probably included loss of the income from gas transit fees through Slovakia, Euractiv.sk noted – a significant source of income for Eustream. 

Duleba says that “the contract with SPP is advantageous mainly because Russians pay for the gas transit to the Ukrainian Slovak border in Uzhhorod themselves,” adding that “this is an absolutely ideal contract,” and that it is unlikely to see a contract where “a gas supplier would pay for its transit” ever again. 

“SPP is fighting for the continued gas transit because it is clear it will never again reach a contract like this” when a supplier brings the commodity at his cost all the way to the border. 

“That is why this gas is the cheapest one because Russians themselves pay for the transit,” Duleba reiterated, adding that at the same time, Eustream “is fighting for the return of the great scheme of gas transit through Ukraine to Slovakia”.

In the years before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine some 50-55 bcm of gas was transported through Slovakia annually on average, which yielded €400mn in profit after tax for each of Eustream’s shareholders – the Slovak state and EPH – Duleba estimated.     

“The problem is that following the war, Germans, Italians and French, which were the three largest clients before the war, stopped purchasing it,” changing the energy landscape in Europe dramatically and rendering the return of the pre-war order a “chimera”. 

Smer party relies on anti-establishment electorate

Duleba argues that for Fico there is an important political dimension to his effort to maintain Russian supplies. Fico’s supposedly leftist Smer party won the September 2023 elections on an anti-Ukrainian ticket, campaigning with the slogan “not a single bullet more” for Ukraine.

Although Fico and Smer once again demonstrated their close ties with private businesses by leaving room for commercial military supplies to Ukraine, Fico still needs to use radical rightwing and anti-Ukraine rhetoric to appeal to his anti-establishment electorate, which is  also targeted by the neo-fascist Republika and far-right SNS.   Like his mentor Orban – with whom he is more and more closely aligned – he has regularly criticised EU sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine, and has said he would veto any move to grant the country Nato membership, though he has yet to vote against the EU line on Ukraine in Brussels. 

“Fico has very skilfully developed this brand of politics which combines neo-Stalinism with the tradition of Andrej Hlinka [founder of the Slovak People’s Party, which ruled the World War II puppet state in Slovakia],” says Boris Zala, a former Smer MP and MEP who left the party in 2016 over its corruption scandals and shift rightwards. 

“Smer has not been a left-wing party for some time,”  Zala continued, adding that today, “Smer is a nationalist-conservative party mixing the nostalgia after [the pre-1989 communist] old regime with Slovak People’s Party rhetoric, thanks to which it can attract neo-Stalinists and Hlinka supporters alike”.   

Duleba added that today, Fico’s domestic preferences rely on a political polarisation, which mobilises the anti-establishment segment of the country’s electorate and which leans towards anti-Western rhetoric and nationalist sentiment. “The myth of Russia’s strategic importance” has remained powerful in modern Slovak nationalism since the 19th century when the country was part of the Austro-Hungarian empire and nationalists looked to the big brother Slav empire for support.   

“This mythology works for a significant part of the Slovak society,” Duleba agrees, adding that the rhetoric of gas as a strategic commodity from Russia fits into that. 

Fico has said he intends to “standardise relations between the Slovak Republic and Russian Federation” for which “activities related to the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and victory over fascism” next May will help.   Fico has already said that he intends to go to Moscow for the anniversary.

Fico's hardening stance reflects the fact that the government is starting to come under serious political pressure amid serious cabinet divisions, falling poll figures and budget cuts. Duleba points to the protests against the government policies in the police, judiciary, media and culture, which are only likely to increase as a result of approving a package of measures to consolidate public finances, which has already triggered a crisis in the health system.   

Although the government approved an agreement with Health Labour Unions (LOZ) on December 20 that  averted a threatened  mass exodus of doctors in January, the internal frictions in the coalition reduced it to the slimmest possible majority of 76 in the parliament of 150 legislators. Additionally, four of the Hlas legislators have been critical of the far-right radical elements in the cabinet, including Minister of Culture Martina Šimkovičová. 

“The more unpopular measures to consolidate public finances, Fico will have to make, the more pro-Russian positions he will take up,” Duleba says.  

 TAKE THAT EV SKEPTICS

BYD sales soar signalling a shift in global EV market dynamics

A BYD car / Pexels - Michael Förtsch

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By bno - Taipei Office January 2, 2025

Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD Co Ltd is tightening its grip on the global EV market. In the process it is closing in on Tesla Inc as sales surged in 2024.

In December alone, BYD reported EV sales of 207,734 units, bringing its annual total to 1.76mn according to the BBC. Much of this success can be attributed to aggressive pricing and Chinese government subsidies.

The Shenzhen-based automaker's total vehicle sales rose over 41% year-on-year (y/y), driven primarily by strong demand for its plug-in hybrid models.

With such figures, BYD's growing momentum suggests the global EV race is intensifying although Elon Musk’s Tesla did maintain a narrow lead in global EV sales during the third quarter of 2024. BYD has, however, been steadily closing the gap as many in the motoring industry await Tesla quarterly sales data later in the week.

China’s domestic market drives sales

BYD's dominance in China, which accounts for 90% of its sales, has been a cornerstone of its growth. Price wars and government incentives for EV purchases have spurred Chinese consumers to transition from traditional combustion vehicles to greener alternatives. As a result BYD has widened its lead over international brands which have struggled to compete in the Chinese market.

In part because of this, BYD's revenues for the third quarter of 2024 exceeded Tesla’s for the first time, reaching CNY200bn ($28.2bn), a 24% increase y/y. Tesla's revenues for the same period stood at $25.2bn according to a BBC report even as Tesla retained its position as the largest EV seller globally in terms of units sold.

Challenges in international markets

While BYD has seen success domestically, expanding overseas has proven more challenging though. Tariffs imposed by the European Union—up to 45.3% on Chinese-made EVs—and a 100% duty by the United States have hindered growth in these regions. Elsewhere in Asia too, Japanese and Korean cars dominate and across the Taiwan Strait in Taiwan there is a general distrust of ‘made-in-China’ labels.

Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration is expected to implement additional tariffs on Chinese imports potentially blocking BYD access to one of the world's most lucrative motoring markets altogether.

In Egypt, Men and Boys Stand Firm Against Female Genital Mutilation

A blade used to perform female genital mutilation.

2 January 2025

United Nations Population Fund (New York)

Upper Egypt, Egypt — "People tell me we inherited this practice - that they're doing it because their neighbours are doing it," Georgi Wahba told UNFPA, the United Nations sexual and reproductive health agency.

In his village in the Minya Governorate of Upper Egypt, Mr. Wahba, 53, has become well known for his advocacy against female genital mutilation - a practice that although outlawed in the country, remains widespread. An estimated 86 per cent of ever-married women, aged 15 to 49, in Egypt have undergone some form of the procedure, rising to 96 per cent in Upper Egypt.

"I ask what they gain out of subjecting girls to this," Mr. Wahba said of the awareness-raising sessions he holds with families, couples and communities. "If you are about to get married, why would you need this woman to have been subjected to female genital mutilation? Isn't it more important to agree on other things, to build a life together?"

He began organizing the sessions as part of UNFPA's 'Generation Dialogues' - a project that aims to shift perspectives on harmful practices by encouraging communities to act as agents of change and, like Mr. Wahba, to learn how to bridge the gap between generations when it comes to unequal social norms and traditions.

Engaging in dialogue

To tackle the taboos that often cloud conversations around the topic, Mr. Wahba aims to ensure that the learning experience is enjoyable and inclusive for everyone. "We bring together entire families - a husband and wife and their daughters, and spend the day with them" he said.

The project, which is funded by the Government of Norway, also offers training on how to communicate about harmful practices with fellow community members. Since its inception in 2021, over 350 community members have participated and, like Mr. Wahba, have become "Dialogue Champions".

For Mr. Wahba, it was important to learn how to speak about the issue in a way that felt natural. He didn't want others to simply agree with him without understanding why; instead, he was eager for each person to come to their own conclusions based on the facts they had learned. When community members refused to attend the sessions, he had patience - encouraging them to think for themselves and not to take the customs they had grown up with for granted.

Now a trusted voice on the matter, Mr. Wahba is the person his neighbours contact when they hear someone is at risk of being subjected to female genital mutilation. It is progress like this that makes him hopeful for the future. He believes that people in his community are more educated about the issue than ever before, and knows that open, honest conversations are the way forward.

"Engaging in dialogue among families, friends and communities is the most important step."

Taking a stand

Although female genital mutilation is often seen as a patriarchal norm upheld to oppress women and girls, boys and men from practising communities are in fact at least as likely to oppose it as women and girls are. The attitudes of parents, including the fathers of young girls, are particularly important.

But while taking a stand for their own daughters is an important step, advocating for the elimination of the practice is an even more powerful way for men to effect change. Fathers like Zanaty El-Sawy, from the Asyut Governorate of Upper Egypt, have seen first-hand how fulfilling that role can be. Mr. El-Sawy's journey began one day when he arrived home and told his wife that he needed to discuss something important.

"I am always interested in educating myself and expanding my horizons," he explained. "I have daughters, so I decided to research the topic of female genital mutilation."

This led him to attend a four-day workshop on the practice and other forms of violence against women, led by UNFPA together with the NGO Care

"I learned about the harmful impact of female genital mutilation on women and girls, and that it has no religious or medical foundation," he said. "I found out it is not a necessary practice at all."

At the workshop, participants like Mr. El-Sawy engage with a curriculum specifically designed to engage men and boys. Although there's a special focus on female genital mutilation, the sessions also cover topics such as self-image and identity, gendered power dynamics and gender-based violence.

While at first he found it difficult to relinquish the customs he had grown up with, Mr. El-Sawy now considers himself an ally in the fight against female genital mutilation and feels compelled to share what he has learned. He believes that men bear a special responsibility to discuss the topic with their peers.

"Women have rights just like men - they should have a say just like men."

Read the original article on UNFPA.

AUSTRALIA

Study exposes gender gap in foreign affairs reporting

Not only with male reporters, but the experts likely to be quoted or appear on opinion pages.


Foreign affairs and international security is one area where men dominate news and opinion coverage (David Gray/AFP via Getty Images)


Andrea Carson
2 Jan 2025 Australia
Sex and Gender   Follow @andrea_carson

We are featuring a series of highlights from across the year, with normal publishing to resume 6 January 2025. This article first appeared on 11 November 2024.


The latest findings from Australia’s largest-ever study on the representation of women in the media exposes a persistent gender gap – one that affects both who reports on the top stories of the day and who gets quoted in them.

The sixth edition of the Women for Media report identifies foreign affairs and international security as one area where men dominate news and opinion coverage.

Across the news landscape – radio, print, online, and TV – men account for 60 per cent of foreign affairs reportage. The study, which brings together political scientists and media scholars, reveals that the gender divide is most pronounced in front-page foreign affairs stories and opinion articles.

Men write 73 per cent of these articles – 13 points higher than the overall share of male bylines across all front-page stories. The gap expands even further on the opinion pages, where men account for a staggering 86 per cent of contributors on these issues – 15 points higher than the share of male bylines in all opinion pieces.

While the report is uncomfortable reading for editors and journalists trying to narrow the gender gap, the findings are not surprising and remain consistent with past studies. Since 2012, when the Women Leadership Institute Australia (WLIA) founded the series, “hard news” areas, such as foreign affairs, have remained overwhelmingly male-dominated.

In comparison, women are over represented in “soft news” such as stories on well-being, lifestyle, celebrity and the arts.


The 2024 report is based on an analysis of over 200,000 news stories across print, broadcast and online news from April 2023 to March 2024, with deeper dives in to front page and opinion page coverage of Australia’s 30 top news outlets during March 2024. It uses both computational and manual coding to combine these different data sources with expert interviews with editors. Together, the report captures women’s representation in the media, both as producers of news and as expert sources.

It finds gender inequality remains prevalent in Australian news media, despite the similar numbers of male (2,604) and female journalists (2,423) in the year’s sample. Tabloids, with their focus on crime, disasters, and lifestyle, feature more women bylines in these areas. In contrast, broadsheets, covering business and foreign affairs, are predominantly male authored.

During the study period, opinion pieces on foreign relations were exclusively written by men in three publications: The Sydney Morning Herald, News Corp’s Courier-Mail, and its tabloid, the Adelaide Advertiser.

This disparity extends to the representation of quoted sources and the perception of who is considered as expert. In areas already male dominated with expert commentary such as diplomacy and foreign affairs, this is a problem because it means that as a society the public get a narrower perspective of world views than what they otherwise might if women and others’ perspectives were regularly included in the news mix. In other words, consistent gender bias in foreign affairs normalises male perspectives.

“The unfortunate reality is that women’s perspectives are being overshadowed, as men’s voices and images continue to dominate the media landscape. The result is that we all miss out on ideas and solutions that benefit everyone,” says WLIA chair, and report founder, Carol Schwartz.

Second to politics, “foreign affairs and international security” was the next most popular subject area for commissioning opinion articles in the Australian media. While there are indications that the gender gap in political coverage has narrowed, the same is not true for foreign affairs. Of the ten topics studied, the gender gap was largest overall for foreign affairs coverage, especially in the opinion pages.

But results were mixed across mastheads. During the study period, opinion pieces on foreign relations were exclusively written by men in three publications: The Sydney Morning Herald, News Corp’s Courier-Mail, and its tabloid, the Adelaide Advertiser. While still falling short of gender equality across its opinion bylines, the Australian Financial Review had made some efforts to include perspectives from both in-house and external women on international politics.

“I think gender balance in opinion is a big challenge,” Australian Financial Review editor Cosimar Marriner told the study authors. “I really think it requires extreme focus to make it happen. It is one of my biggest challenges because it’s so visible, it gets brought up by everyone and I see it every day when I look on our website.”

On the other end of the spectrum, the Canberra Times was the only publication in which women exclusively authored opinion articles discussing foreign relations, during the time of analysis.

The gender gap in foreign affairs reporting also persists in journalists’ choices of quoted sources, with journalists profiling men’s opinions (and not women’s) seven times out of ten. While certain news events, such as a story involving a male prime minister, will influence who is quoted and when, the data still reveals that men journalists are more likely to quote male sources compared to their women colleagues who quote women sources more frequently.

This suggests that some journalistic discretion is exercised and that the gender gap in foreign affairs reporting will not narrow unless reporters and editors make conscious efforts to overcome gender bias in their coverage when they have discretion to do so.

“There is no doubt that media organisations are facing tough times, with business models under pressure, increasing news avoidance, and the rise of disinformation on social media,” says Schwartz.

“Despite these challenges, it is crucial that we continue to prioritise diverse voices in our news coverage. The stories we see, the voices we consider authoritative, and the narratives we embrace all determine the future we build.”

The full report is available here: An Unfinished Story: Understanding Gender Bias in Australian Newsrooms.

IRONIC

Iran summons Saudi ambassador over executions

TEHRAN, Jan. 01 (MNA) – The Iranian foreign ministry has summoned the Saudi Ambassador to Tehran after it was reported on Wednesday six Iranian nationals were executed by Saudi judicial authorities over drug trafficking.

Karimi Shasati, Director General of the Consular Affairs Office at the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reacted to the news of the execution of six Iranian nationals imprisoned in Saudi Arabia on charges of drug trafficking, expressing the Iranian ministry's strong protest against the action.

"These individuals had been sentenced to death by the Saudi Arabian judiciary several years ago on charges of drug trafficking, and during this time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had made constant efforts to provide them with consular services and reduce their sentences. However, carrying out death sentences without prior notification to the embassy is unacceptable and violates the rules and regulations of international law, including the Convention on Consular Relations," the Iranian diplomat told the Saudi ambassador in a meeting on Wednesday at the foreign ministry's compound. 

"In this regard, the Saudi Arabian ambassador to Tehran was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a memorandum was sent to him, informing him of the Islamic Republic of Iran's strong objections and the inconsistency of this action with the overall trend of judicial cooperation between the two countries and stressing the need to provide the necessary explanation in this regard on the part of the Saudi Arabia," Karimi Shasati said.

A legal-consular delegation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also scheduled to depart for Riyadh to follow up on the issue.

MNA

Saudi Arabia executes 6 Iranians for drug trafficking

2025-01-01 

Shafaq News/ Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Interior announced, on Wednesday, the execution of several Iranian nationals convicted of drug trafficking into the kingdom.

In a statement, the ministry confirmed that six Iranian nationals were convicted of "smuggling hashish into Saudi Arabia," noting that their execution took place in the Eastern Province.

The ministry did not specify the date of the execution.

In 2024, Saudi Arabia executed at least 330 people, the highest number in decades, despite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's 2022 pledge to abolish the death penalty, except for cases of retribution, as part of his vision for a “new and open” kingdom.

New signs of Bangladesh interim government softening stance on extradition of Sheikh Hasina

Hossain’s comment assumed significance as it signalled a sense of pragmatism on Dhaka’s part in dealing with the extradition of Hasina even as a section of Bangladesh’s civil society, which played a role in the regime change, questioning the Yunus government’s commitment in bringing her back

Devadeep Purohit Published 02.01.25

Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Muhammad Yunus pays tribute to former Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh.

PTI picture

The relationship between Bangladesh and India will not be adversely affected even if New Delhi does not respond to Dhaka’s request for extradition of deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Touhid Hossain — foreign affairs adviser to the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government — said on Wednesday.

“This is one of the issues and the two countries have many bilateral issues,” Hossain was quoted by Bangladeshi media.

“I think both will continue simultaneously. We have many issues of mutual interest. We will advance with all these issues side by side,” the adviser added in response to a question on the likely impact on the ties if the Narendra Modi government doesn’t hand over Hasina, who has taken refuge in India after she fled the country on August 5.

He also said that maintaining good relations with India, the US and China would be among the top priorities of the government in 2025.

Multiple sources in Dhaka said that the interim government was expecting a reply from India regarding its request for Hasina’s extradition and was under pressure from the leaders of the anti-discrimination students’ movement and parties like the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami to send a reminder after “a certain period” if no reply is received from New Delhi. The students were at the forefront of the protests that led to Hasina’s downfall.

Hossain’s comment assumed significance as it signalled a sense of pragmatism on Dhaka’s part in dealing with the extradition of Hasina even as a section of Bangladesh’s civil society, which played a role in the regime change, questioning the Yunus government’s commitment in bringing her back.

“It’s a tricky matter, both at domestic and bilateral level.... They seem to be pitching it cleverly and not making it a major issue so that it boomerangs on them,” said a former Indian diplomat.

According to the source, the interim government cannot afford to make Hasina’s extradition a “major issue” as it is also aware that India is under no obligation to hand over the deposed Prime Minister.

“They don’t want to raise the pitch as it will be difficult for them to deal with their hardline Islamist constituents once it becomes apparent that Hasina’s extradition is not feasible...,” said the source.

At a time when Bangladesh is battling runaway inflation because of supply bottlenecks, raising the pitch to return Hasina beyond a moderate level runs the risk of complicating ties with India, the major exporter of essential items to Bangladesh.

Echoing the retired Indian diplomat, a source in the foreign affairs ministry said that Bangladesh’s note verbale to India regarding Hasina’s extradition was an attempt to keep the hardliners happy for the time being.

Hossain’s comment on Hasina’s extradition, a source said, is the second instance of Dhaka’s shift to a “pragmatic approach” in dealing with India.

“On Tuesday, Professor Yunus broke all protocols, visited the Indian high commission in Dhaka, placed a floral wreath at the portrait of Manmohan Singh and wrote a condolence message.... There seems to be a pragmatic approach and a reachout message,” said a source in Dhaka.

A source in New Delhi said that the sound bytes and visuals from Dhaka may be encouraging, but it is too early to reach a conclusion about the Yunus regime’s true intent.

“They are yet to address our main concerns like ensuring safety and security of minorities, keeping the terror elements and radical Islamists under check and establishing rule of law... We have to wait and see how they handle these issues,” said the strategic affairs expert.

Pakistan Begins Tenure As Non-Permanent Member Of UNSC For Two Years

In June, Pakistan was elected to the council with a massive majority as a non-permanent member, polling 182 votes in the 193-member General Assembly — far more than the required 124 votes representing a two-thirds majority.

PTI
Updated on: 1 January 2025 


Representative image Photo: PTI

Pakistan began its two-year tenure as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Wednesday, with Ambassador Munir Akram saying that the Pakistani delegation will play an “active and constructive” role in addressing key challenges facing the world.

“Our presence will be felt in the Security Council,” Ambassador Akram, Pakistan’s top diplomat at the UN, told state-run APP (Associated Press of Pakistan) news agency.

Pakistan will sit in the Security Council for the 2025-26 term as a non-permanent member — the eighth time that the country has had a seat on the 15-member body’s horseshoe table.

In June, Pakistan was elected to the council with a massive majority as a non-permanent member, polling 182 votes in the 193-member General Assembly — far more than the required 124 votes representing a two-thirds majority.

“We enter the council at a time of great geopolitical turbulence, intense competition between the two largest powers, raging wars in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere and a sharply escalating and multi-dimensional arms race,” Akram said.

“As a responsible State — the fifth largest by population — Pakistan will play an active and constructive role, in accordance with the UN Charter, to halt wars, promote the pacific settlement of disputes and contain the negative impacts of great power rivalries, the arms race, new weapons and domains of conflict as well as the spreading scourge of terrorism,” he said.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Ishaq Dar said that Pakistan begins its term as a non-permanent member of the UNSC with a rich legacy of experience and commitment to the principles and purposes of the UN Charter.

He was addressing a reception hosted at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Foreign Office said in a statement.

The event was attended by the heads of resident missions of the UN Security Council Member States in Islamabad and senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Dar highlighted Pakistan’s contributions to international peace and security, especially through its active role in UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding endeavours around the world.

Dar said that Pakistan looked forward to “seeking just and peaceful resolution of situations on the agenda of the UN Security Council”.

“As a member of the council, Pakistan will continue to oppose the unilateral and illegal use or threat of force; combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations; and support effective UN peacekeeping, and peacebuilding efforts,” he said.

Pakistan replaced Japan, which currently occupies the Asian seat in the Security Council, a primary instrument for establishing and maintaining international peace.

Pakistan’s earlier terms on the council were in 2012-13, 2003-04, 1993-94, 1983-84, 1976-77, 1968-69 and 1952-53.

In the June election in the General Assembly, Pakistan was elected along with Denmark, Greece, Panama and Somalia — to replace Japan, Ecuador, Malta, Mozambique and Switzerland whose terms end on December 31, 2024.

The new members join the five veto-wielding permanent members the United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom and France and the five countries elected as non-permanent members last year Algeria, Guyana, South Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia.

Analysis: Can Pakistan stem the tide of terror resurgence?

Ismail Khan

January 2, 2025 

DAWN

THERE has been a whopping 279.8 per cent increase in the number of terrorist incidents; from 572 in the year 2021 to 2,173 in 2024.—AFP/file

• ‘Own losses’ far outstrip the dent IBOs and other kinetic actions have put in militants’ operational ability
• Need to revisit the existing anti-terror strategies is apparent, but lack of political will and ‘Afghanistan factor’ complicate the quagmire

STANDING before a select audience in a small but imposing auditorium at the headquarters of Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency, the now-reviled former spymaster, Gen Faiz Hameed flashed slide after slide on two giant LCDs to establish that the Afghan Taliban insurgency — then just weeks away from capturing Kabul — was in fact a ‘Pashtun nationalist uprising’.

Shortly before wrapping up his monologue and opening the floor to questions, Faiz said something diametrically opposite to his long presentation on the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan: “Not many people agree with me, but I do believe that the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Afghan Taliban are two faces of the same coin.”

Weeks later, the beaming former ISI chief stood in the lobby of an iconic Kabul hotel, sipping coffee as he waited to meet Afghanistan’s new rulers — the Taliban. “Don’t worry, everything will be okay,” he famously told Channel 4 News’ Lindsey Hilsum.

Now holed up in his interrogation cell, facing a military trial over political meddling, the beleaguered general must be wondering how under his watch, Pakistan’s top spy agency — which has been overseeing so many other complex and complicated issues — got the Afghan Taliban-TTP nexus so horribly wrong.

With terror incidents rising and casualty figures mounting year-on-year since August 2021, his brief repartee with Lindsey will probably haunt him forever — a reversal of the hard-fought gains against militants in successive military operations in Pakistan’s troubled border regions.

A simple chart showing Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s descent into violence since the Taliban’s rise to power in Kabul would be enough to illustrate how quickly Pakistan’s optimism over the Afghan Taliban’s ability to rein in the TTP turned into a nightmare.

If the sharp spike doesn’t explain the trajectory of violent incidents and fatalities that has befallen KP, consider the percentage. There has been a whopping 279.8 per cent increase in the number of terrorist incidents from 2021’s 572 to 2,173 in 2024. Likewise, casualty figures shot up by a staggering 231pc, from 238 in 2021 to 788 in 2024.

Similarly, compared to 2023, the number of terrorist incidents in KP shot up by 54.89pc while casualties increased by 11.9pc. On average, the province lost two men per day, including personnel from the security forces, civilian law enforcement and ordinary citizens.

Overall, KP’s south remains quite troubled, with spikes in attacks in the two Waziristans, Dera Ismail Khan, Tank, Lakki Marwat and Karak. The Malakand and Hazara regions, meanwhile, have remained relatively peaceful — with a major exception being the attack on Chinese workers in Bisham, Shangla in March, 2024. Kurram, together with Khyber’s scenic Tirah Valley, saw a resurgence of militants, bringing renewed threats to the provincial capital Peshawar.

Contrast this with the security situation in Afghanistan in the period before and after the return of the Taliban. The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), in its August 2022 report, while acknowledging the “dramatic shifts in the security situation”, noted five-fold decrease in the rate of battles, explosions and other forms of violence per week during the first ten months of the Taliban rule, compared to the same period during Ashraf Ghani’s regime.

IBOs

Amid mounting concerns over the escalating attacks across KP, the military launched small-scale operations and intelligence-based operations (IBOs).

At a media briefing last week, the head of the military’s media department said that over 59,000 IBOs were conducted across Pakistan in 2024 — an average of 161 operations per day. Although KP-specific IBO figures were not available, official statistics suggest that a total of 384 militants were killed over the course of the year.

Meanwhile, the proportion of “own” casualties versus militant losses is huge.

This gap between the effort to hunt down militants and the damage they have sustained may be explained by the complex nature of guerilla warfare, but while the TTP and its affiliates have not been able to find a permanent foothold, their spread and presence has increased manifold.

“Clearly, the existing strategy is working to cause a significant dent. This is not sustainable. We need deliberations to take stock of the situation and frame a new strategy to overcome the problem,” an insider said, pointedly.

Opinions vary as to why, despite a huge effort, Pakistan’s counter-terrorism campaign has not been able to overcome its security challenges and cause a significant dent in the rise of militancy.

According to background discussions with security officials, there are many factors that have contributed to this.

Afghanistan

Pakistan’s western neighbour continues to be a problem. In recent diplomatic engagements, credible sources say the ruling Taliban have again sought time to fix the TTP issue, referring to their efforts to relocate militants and their families away from the border to Ghazni province in central Afghanistan.

The cost of construction of houses and relocation to the tune of seven digits in dollar terms, according to the source, was borne by a friendly state.

Islamabad has conveyed to the interim Taliban regime that it must control and rein in the TTP. Kabul, on its part, has sought some concessions in trade and visa regimes, and some agreements are ready to be signed.

But Islamabad has told the Taliban leadership it would evaluate Kabul’s response to its concerns in the coming weeks, before it contemplates delivering on the promises.

Pakistan has also urged the Afghan Taliban to recover sophisticated American weaponry from the TTP, discourage them from crossing the border and arrest those who do that.

Government officials continue to complain that the Afghans allow free cross-border movement and no punitive action is taken against those doing it.

Political ownership

The issue of political ownership of the ‘fight against terror’, or lack thereof, was hotly debated at one of the recent apex committee meetings, amid the provincial government’s ambivalent attitude. It was made clear to the KP chief minister, according to a senior official, that the armed forces were in the province at the request of the provincial government under Article 245 of the Constitution, and that it should step up and take full ownership and responsibility.

Besides, the government was urged to spare more resources to enable the Counter Terrorism Department to fight an enemy that was better armed and equipped with advanced US weaponry.

Owing to their grievances against the establishment, almost all political parties in KP are reluctant to lend support to large-scale military operations, while at the same time expressing concerns over the deteriorating security situation in the province.

Complicating the fight further is the overall political polarisation at the national level, which has not only impacted the political mood in KP, but has also brought about an informal alliance of divergent political views to oppose military operations, even in hotbed areas.

Clearance vs containment

Adding to the complexity of the challenges, the TTP has been able to successfully adopt the Afghan Taliban playbook by declaring it would only target men in uniform and avoid targeting civilians in an attempt to drive a wedge between the security forces and the citizenry. This is largely in line with group leader Mufti Noor Wali’s own strategy, outlined in a booklet he had authored before he became its head.

Officials and analysts believe that much of the state’s efforts were focused on containment rather than clearance, and that the issue could be sufficiently addressed if forces are deployed in sufficient number.

But while there is a general agreement to undertake military operations in a couple of regions in a phased manner, the lack of public and political support, and appetite for another round of displacement, is complicating the issue.

Officials and analysts believe it is time to re-visit the counter-terrorism strategy, and focus more on the use of technology to track, monitor, surveil and strike, coupled with a whole set of political, legal and administrative reforms.

Published in Dawn, January 2nd, 2025

Peace deal reached in Pakistan's Kurram district after weeks of sectarian clashes

PTI |
Jan 01, 2025 

Peshawar, A peace agreement was reached between two warring parties in northwest Pakistan's restive Kurram district after more than three weeks of efforts to broker a ceasefire amid sectarian violence, officials said on Wednesday.

Representatives from the Alizai and Bagan tribes signed the 14-point agreement, agreeing to demolish all private bunkers and surrender heavy arms to the administration, said Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, spokesperson for the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government.

Sectarian clashes between the two tribes resulted in the killing of 133 people between November 21 and December 2.

Tribal council member Malik Sawab Khan confirmed that 45 representatives from both sides signed the agreement, which included a ceasefire, commitments to dismantle fortifications and surrender their weapons.

One party signed the peace pact few days ago while the other party signed it on Wednesday, Saif said.

"We congratulate the people of Kurram on the signing of the peace agreement," he said, noting that it would soon fully restore normalcy to daily life in the district.

"The peace agreement will usher in a new era of peace and prosperity in Kurram," Saif said.

He added that the grand jirga was working towards a peace accord that would lead to the reopening of roads in the restive district.


Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Khan Gandapur welcomed the agreement's signing, stating that the provincial government's efforts for a peaceful resolution yielded fruitful results.

He called it a significant step toward a sustainable solution in Kurram.

"I welcome this important development and congratulate all stakeholders," Gandapur said in a special statement issued on Wednesday, expressing hope that the agreement would lay a strong foundation for lasting resolution.

He added that it paved the way for reopening Kurram’s land route, and said that by signing the agreement both parties have played a constructive role in establishing peace in the region.

Gandapur urged both parties to reject elements spreading hatred and foster unity, and said that the agreement is a clear message that the region's people desire peace.

He stressed that fighting and violence are not solutions, and disputes must be resolved through dialogue.

"Our efforts and wish are for the speedy resolution of the issues faced by the people of Kurram and the restoration of normalcy in the region," he said.

He assured the people of Kurram that their challenges are well understood and that all possible measures will be taken to alleviate them.

Stemming from decades-old land disputes, the clashes led to weeks-long road blockades, during which food and medicine shortages were reported in the district.

Tribal council member Khan said that planning was underway to reopen routes and establish lasting peace.

He added that those violating the agreement would be handed over to the authorities and efforts to maintain law and order would be carried out in coordination with law enforcement agencies.

The clashes between the two tribes started on November 22, after an attack on a convoy of passenger vans near Parachinar in which 47 people were killed.

Several passengers who had sustained grave injuries succumbed later, raising the toll in the convoy killing to 57.