By AFP
October 30, 2024
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stressed the strategic importance of the bloc's enlargement faced with the 'existential threat' from Russia - Copyright AFP JOHN THYS
The European Commission said Wednesday it hopes to move entry talks with Ukraine and Moldova to the next stage “as soon as possible” in 2025, as part of a renewed enlargement push faced with the “existential threat” from Russia.
In an annual update on the EU enlargement process, the commission also reaffirmed that Georgia’s path to joining remained “de facto” halted without a change of course from its ruling party — accused of steering Tbilisi back into Russia’s orbit.
Ex-Soviet Ukraine and Moldova opened European Union accession negotiations in June, setting them on a long — and yet uncertain — path towards membership that Russia has tried to block.
The commission said the task of screening how far laws in both Ukraine and Moldova comply with EU standards — and how much work lies ahead — was “progressing smoothly”.
Once complete, actual negotiations can begin on 35 subjects, from taxation to environmental policy — grouped under what are known in enlargement jargon as “clusters”.
For both Ukraine and Moldova, the commission said it was “looking forward to the opening of negotiations on clusters… as soon as possible in 2025” — subject to a green light from the EU’s 27 member states.
For Ukraine, the opening of talks in June marked the beginning of a protracted process that will likely take many years — and may never lead to membership.
So far, Ukraine has won plaudits for kickstarting a raft of reforms on curbing graft and political interference, even as it battles the Russian invasion.
“Ukrainians are fighting two battles at the same time,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told a news conference. “One in the battlefield, a real war, and another striving to push the reforms needed to become member of the European Union.”
“We will support Ukraine on both fronts,” he said.
Moldova only narrowly voted in favour of joining the bloc in a referendum this month marked by allegations of interference by Moscow — casting a shadow over the country’s EU aspirations.
But enlargement commissioner Oliver Varhelyi told the press conference “it is very clear that Moldova has come a long way” — citing in particular the recovery from oligarchs of tens of millions in “stolen” funds.
Kyiv and Chisinau lodged their respective EU bids in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has reinvigorated a push to take on new members.
– No ‘business as usual’ with Russia –
EU also granted candidate status to ex-Soviet Georgia last December — but negotiations were frozen after it passed a controversial “foreign influence law” targeting civil society, which critics said mirrored Russian legislation.
“Should there be a political will from Georgia’s leadership, we are offering a clear path for re-engagement on the way to the European Union — the repeal of the law on foreign influence,” Borrell said.
But the commission’s enlargement report also warned: “Unless Georgia reverts the current course of action which jeopardises its EU path… the commission will not be in a position to consider recommending opening negotiations with Georgia.”
Borrell said the invasion of Ukraine had made “clear that Russia is posing an existential threat to Europe now more than ever, and that European Union membership becomes a strategic choice.”
“You simply cannot maintain ties with Russia or to try to do business as usual and expect that your country will be part of the European Union,” said Borrell. “It’s one thing or the other.”
Brussels earlier this year approved accession negotiations with Bosnia and has talks ongoing with Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia.
Borrell took a swipe at Serbia, which maintains friendly ties with Moscow and has refused to sanction it for the invasion of Ukraine.
“Serbia, sooner or later, will have to align the foreign policy with European Union foreign policy. Otherwise, membership will be jeopardised,” he warned.
Turkey officially remains a candidate, having launched membership talks in 2005, but the process has gone nowhere since a crackdown on opposition groups following a failed coup in 2016
Russia eats away at territory, and Ukrainian morale
By AFP
October 30, 2024
Russia is still launching attacks on Ukrainian cities like Kharkiv - Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP ALEX WONG
Didier LAURAS
Progress has been slow but it is relentless. Russia’s army has been advancing at several points along the Ukrainian war front for weeks now, gobbling up territory one village at a time.
It has cast doubt over Kyiv’s ability to stem the tide, let alone push back the advancing troops.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army has taken 478 square kilometres of territory since the start of October — its largest monthly territorial gain since the early weeks of its invasion in February 2022, according to AFP analysis of data from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Russia has been on the offensive for an entire year,” said Meduza, a Russian opposition website that has been blocked by Moscow.
“Yet this past week has been one of the toughest — if not the toughest — for Ukraine’s armed forces during that time,” it added.
– Accelerated progression –
The ISW data does not point to Ukrainian military collapse in any way, “but what is the most concerning is that it’s a pattern”, said former French army colonel Michel Goya, a war historian.
“We have seen an acceleration in this progression, with the feeling that it cannot be stopped,” he added, describing a “Russian strategy of pressure everywhere, all the time, while waiting for (the defence) to crack, crumble or collapse.”
Almost every day, Moscow claims a new victory.
“None of the locations, on their own, have any great importance, but together it represents a great success for the Russian army,” said Alexander Khramchikhin, a Moscow-based Russian military analyst.
“The Russian advance, even though not rapid, shows the increasing deterioration (of the situation) in Ukraine.”
– Artillery power –
Since the start of the war, Moscow has maintained artillery superiority.
Despite Western sanctions, Russia has turned its economy into a war machine, with support from allies, headed by Iran and North Korea.
“The Russian war industry produces more weapons than Ukraine receives,” said Khramchikhin, and “more ammunition thanks to its industry and that of North Korea”.
At the start of this year, a US Congress freeze on a multi-billion-dollar aid package significantly slowed the supply of weapons to Ukraine, “while three million North Korean shells arrived in Russian depots”, said Goya.
And Moscow developed a guidance system for bombs, which it uses “by the thousands”, he said, adding that some 1,600 North Korean KN-02 ballistic missiles had pummelled Ukraine.
– New tactical approach –
Rather than capturing towns district by district, the Russian army has gone for a suffocation tactic.
“The principle is to threaten to surround the pockets that are then forced to retreat,” said Goya.
For Alexander Kots, a war journalist for the popular Russian daily Komsomolskaya Pravda and strong supporter of the invasion, “we refused to storm towns and villages head on, where we would have to eat up every square metre of road, every house.”
As such, Ukrainian forces “can be forced to withdraw along a long corridor that is open to fire.”
– Ukraine’s tired morale –
Gradually, the Russian advance has eaten away at Ukrainian morale. Kyiv is struggling to recruit, while the army’s disorganisation and corruption facilitate desertions and refusals to fight.
“Beating an enemy is killing their hope. When the sacrifice of those who die is for nothing, there is no sense in fighting on,” said Goya.
“The (President Volodymyr) Zelensky government, faced with the war weariness of the civilian population, is struggling to mobilise,” said a French military leader on the condition of anonymity.
On Tuesday, Kyiv announced a new mobilisation drive aimed at recruiting 160,000 people, faced with the fear of Russia deploying North Korean troops, in order to boost numbers by 85 percent.
– Western procrastination –
On the flip side, Russia is suffering heavy losses, experts say.
Ivan Klyszcz, from the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, said that at the current rate, Russia “would finish capturing the rest of the Donbas region of Ukraine after several months and at an extremely high cost.”
In the meantime, the West is procrastinating.
Zelensky’s “victory plan”, which was supposed to put him in a position of strength to negotiate, has divided allies, while the US presidential elections in November have created uncertainty.
“It seems that Ukraine will soon realise that it needs a change of course, and that relying on Western partners… will become a counter-productive strategy in the near future,” said Klyszcz.
However, the deployment of North Korean troops could provoke a sense of urgency in the West.
But “whether this urgency will translate into new pledges or enhanced support, is yet to be seen,” added Klyszcz.
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