Analysis: Michigan, which has in recent years been the most Democratic-leaning swing state, is now too close to call in the 2024 US presidential election.
Brooke Anderson
Washington, DC
17 October, 2024
Washington, DC - Last month, Donald Trump won the endorsement of Amer Ghalib, the Yemeni-born mayor of Hamtramck, the only US city with a Muslim-majority city council.
It was an unusual boost for the US Republican presidential candidate, who imposed a Muslim ban upon assuming office eight years ago and who continues to rail against immigrants in his campaign speeches.
Trump and Ghalib appeared to have engaged in an alliance of convenience. Though not ideologically aligned on the surface, the two men have shown support for book bans on LGBTQ+ content and other socially conservative issues.
Likely far more important for the Arab and Muslim communities in southeastern Michigan was, as Trump later stated, that “there were no wars" when he was president.
A sprint to the end in Michigan
Shortly after the endorsement, Trump appeared to ramp up his efforts in Michigan, opening a campaign office in Hamtramck and scheduling rallies in areas that have largely voted Democrat in the last couple of decades.
"It's both deceitful and really smart. They get the endorsements of some Muslim leaders because of their opposition to LGBTQ+ books in schools saying they're on the same page, and then they have their allied super PACs with almost daily mailings in Dearborn," James Zogby, a veteran pollster and president of the Arab American Institute tells The New Arab. "They're doing it to Muslims. It's a form of voter suppression."
Republican-backed PACs have been pouring millions of dollars into Michigan with ads targeting Arabs and Muslims, highlighting Harris's support for Israel, with the same PACs saying that Harris is hostile to Israel in targeted ads to Jews. Some of the ads that point to Harris's Jewish husband in a negative light have faced criticism for using antisemitic tropes.
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The Republicans' ramped-up campaigning in Michigan appears to be working. This month, multiple polls have shown that Trump has pulled ahead of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in Michigan, one of the largest of the swing states that will be critical for a presidential win.
Of all the swing states, Michigan is considered the most Democratic-leaning, with Joe Biden having won the state by more than 150,000 votes in 2020. However, with continued US military support for Israel's more than year-long war in Gaza, and with southeastern Michigan home to the largest community of Arabs and Muslims in the US, many voters in the state are turning away from Harris due to her role as vice president in the Biden administration.
Dearborn: A deeply wounded constituency
Alaa Ali, an urgent care physician in the Dearborn area, has lost more than a hundred family members to Israeli airstrikes in his native Gaza. Once an enthusiastic Biden supporter due to his promise to reverse Trump's Muslim ban, he has become a vocal opponent of the current administration, including Harris.
"To be honest, the community is fed up with the Harris campaign, and we feel like they're not doing anything to help," Ali tells TNA.
"Basically, they're hurting themselves by standing with the genocide. We feel that with Harris things could get worse because anytime the community tries to get reassurance, the campaign doesn't do anything. When we ask if there will be a change of policy, we don't get any answers."
On the other hand, when he has met with the Trump campaign, he says things are different.
There is vocal opposition to Harris from Arab and Muslim communities in Michigan over the Biden administration's military and political support for Israel's devastating war on Gaza, and now Lebanon. [Getty]
"Trump has said from day one that he's going to stop the war. How is he going to do it? Is it going to be through policy? I honestly don't know," Ali says. "I see the guy doesn't like war. He doesn't like conflict. I feel like there's a lot of potential. The community at large is against Harris."
So far, the various community groups where he holds leadership positions representing Arabs, Muslims, and Palestinians, have not endorsed anyone, though he is adamant that if they do it would not be Harris.
"There has to be a lesson taught to the Democratic Party," he says. "They're committing genocide. This is something that can't be tolerated."
When asked what he thought of Trump's support for Israel's far-right government, with some of its leaders calling for the annexation of the West Bank and the re-occupation of Gaza, he responded that Gaza is already occupied.
Moreover, he says that when he talks to his family in Gaza and asks them what they think of the US presidential election, they blame the Biden administration for the prolonged war, which has killed 42,000 Palestinians.
"They think that if it weren't for them, the war would not have extended for this long," he says.
"They said if Trump comes in, either he'll nuke us and that's better than living this life, or he'll stop the war."
Reluctant support from a demoralised community
Amid vocal opposition to Biden and Harris from Arabs and Muslims in Michigan, there are also examples of groups that have voiced support for the Harris campaign.
In response to their mayor's endorsement of Trump, a member of the Hamtramck city council showed support for the Democratic candidate by holding an event, which was attended by other local elected officials.
A group called Muslim Women for Harris, which disbanded during the Democratic convention in August, later regrouped. They shared their decision to support Harris again with a carefully worded social media post noting their condemnation of US support for Israel's war in Gaza while also having serious concerns about a second Trump presidency.
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Another group called Arab Americans for Harris-Walz, some of whom were previously with the uncommitted movement, made their launch statement on social media noting that they understand many people's reluctance to support the Democratic ticket. They warned that a Trump presidency could be much worse. Their post drew many angry responses from fellow Arabs.
When the Muslim voting advocacy group Emgage announced their endorsement of Harris, they also did so with a carefully worded statement acknowledging their community's pain without the typical enthusiasm for an endorsement.
Michigan race too close to predict
With an uptick in Republican campaigning in Michigan combined with a demoralised Democratic base, it is difficult to predict who the state will pick in the presidential election.
"Of all the swing states, Michigan has been the most Democratic-leaning. We've been trying to choose a side for the toss-ups. We've been wanting to move Michigan to Harris, but the evidence isn't there yet," J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, tells TNA.
"In some polls, she's leading, in others Trump is leading. I'm a little surprised at this point as a forecaster that we haven't been able to designate Harris as a favourite. You could almost see starting October last year with Israel and Palestine that it would be a complicated state for the Democrats," he says.
"When it comes to Arab areas like Dearborn, I think the Harris campaign has made peace with the fact that they won't be able to carry them," he added.
Dearborn hasn't chosen a Republican since 2000, when they went for George W. Bush, possibly in part affected by the high turn-out among Arabs for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, the son of Lebanese immigrants.
"Trump has said from day one that he's going to stop the war. How is he going to do it? Is it going to be through policy? I honestly don't know," Ali says. "I see the guy doesn't like war. He doesn't like conflict. I feel like there's a lot of potential. The community at large is against Harris."
So far, the various community groups where he holds leadership positions representing Arabs, Muslims, and Palestinians, have not endorsed anyone, though he is adamant that if they do it would not be Harris.
"There has to be a lesson taught to the Democratic Party," he says. "They're committing genocide. This is something that can't be tolerated."
When asked what he thought of Trump's support for Israel's far-right government, with some of its leaders calling for the annexation of the West Bank and the re-occupation of Gaza, he responded that Gaza is already occupied.
Moreover, he says that when he talks to his family in Gaza and asks them what they think of the US presidential election, they blame the Biden administration for the prolonged war, which has killed 42,000 Palestinians.
"They think that if it weren't for them, the war would not have extended for this long," he says.
"They said if Trump comes in, either he'll nuke us and that's better than living this life, or he'll stop the war."
Reluctant support from a demoralised community
Amid vocal opposition to Biden and Harris from Arabs and Muslims in Michigan, there are also examples of groups that have voiced support for the Harris campaign.
In response to their mayor's endorsement of Trump, a member of the Hamtramck city council showed support for the Democratic candidate by holding an event, which was attended by other local elected officials.
A group called Muslim Women for Harris, which disbanded during the Democratic convention in August, later regrouped. They shared their decision to support Harris again with a carefully worded social media post noting their condemnation of US support for Israel's war in Gaza while also having serious concerns about a second Trump presidency.
Related
Biden's legacy of failure in the Middle East
Analysis
Dario Sabaghi
Another group called Arab Americans for Harris-Walz, some of whom were previously with the uncommitted movement, made their launch statement on social media noting that they understand many people's reluctance to support the Democratic ticket. They warned that a Trump presidency could be much worse. Their post drew many angry responses from fellow Arabs.
When the Muslim voting advocacy group Emgage announced their endorsement of Harris, they also did so with a carefully worded statement acknowledging their community's pain without the typical enthusiasm for an endorsement.
Michigan race too close to predict
With an uptick in Republican campaigning in Michigan combined with a demoralised Democratic base, it is difficult to predict who the state will pick in the presidential election.
"Of all the swing states, Michigan has been the most Democratic-leaning. We've been trying to choose a side for the toss-ups. We've been wanting to move Michigan to Harris, but the evidence isn't there yet," J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, tells TNA.
"In some polls, she's leading, in others Trump is leading. I'm a little surprised at this point as a forecaster that we haven't been able to designate Harris as a favourite. You could almost see starting October last year with Israel and Palestine that it would be a complicated state for the Democrats," he says.
"When it comes to Arab areas like Dearborn, I think the Harris campaign has made peace with the fact that they won't be able to carry them," he added.
Dearborn hasn't chosen a Republican since 2000, when they went for George W. Bush, possibly in part affected by the high turn-out among Arabs for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, the son of Lebanese immigrants.
With an uptick in Republican campaigning in Michigan combined with a demoralised Democratic base, it is difficult to predict who the state will pick in the presidential election. [Getty]
Some polls show Green Party candidate Jill Stein leading among Muslim voters, though it's unclear if she could be considered a "spoiler" for Harris given that many of her supporters would likely not have chosen one of the major party candidates.
Many Arabs and Muslims have said they will skip the top of the ballot and only vote in state and local elections on 5 November.
Richard Groper, a lecturer in political science at California State University in Los Angeles, told The New Arab that he is sceptical of recent polls showing Trump has taken the lead in Michigan and other swing states.
He wonders if there's an overreach in counting Trump voters, given the embarrassment many pollsters faced following Trump's 2016 win and the 2022 "red wave" that didn't materialise.
"I'm very sceptical of the polls right now. I cannot imagine they'd allow a third time with their reputations on the line with another undercount of the Trump voters. There's a lot at stake," he tells TNA. "That said, it's still close."
At this point, Zogby says it could be too late for Harris to sway Arab and Muslim voters. Instead, he suggests she make a public pitch, saying she'll meet with them and listen once she's in office.
Brooke Anderson is The New Arab's correspondent in Washington DC, covering US and international politics, business, and culture.
Follow her on Twitter: @Brookethenews
Some polls show Green Party candidate Jill Stein leading among Muslim voters, though it's unclear if she could be considered a "spoiler" for Harris given that many of her supporters would likely not have chosen one of the major party candidates.
Many Arabs and Muslims have said they will skip the top of the ballot and only vote in state and local elections on 5 November.
Richard Groper, a lecturer in political science at California State University in Los Angeles, told The New Arab that he is sceptical of recent polls showing Trump has taken the lead in Michigan and other swing states.
He wonders if there's an overreach in counting Trump voters, given the embarrassment many pollsters faced following Trump's 2016 win and the 2022 "red wave" that didn't materialise.
"I'm very sceptical of the polls right now. I cannot imagine they'd allow a third time with their reputations on the line with another undercount of the Trump voters. There's a lot at stake," he tells TNA. "That said, it's still close."
At this point, Zogby says it could be too late for Harris to sway Arab and Muslim voters. Instead, he suggests she make a public pitch, saying she'll meet with them and listen once she's in office.
Brooke Anderson is The New Arab's correspondent in Washington DC, covering US and international politics, business, and culture.
Follow her on Twitter: @Brookethenews
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