Will the Syrian rebels be able to protect their victory?
Rebel fighters are present on the Umayyad Square in Damascus as people gathered to celebrate the end of the 54 year Assad family rule December 10 2024
[Nael Chahine / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP]
by Motasem A Dalloul
abujomaaGaza
December 17, 2024
Following last week’s defeat of the Assad regime in Syria, Syrian rebels have been carrying out a peaceful takeover of the country’s offices and institutions. Rebel leader Ahmad Al Sharaa – known as Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani – tasked a representative to form a civil transitional government.
The Israeli occupation of the buffer zone in the south of Syria and its relentless bombing of the Syrian military capabilities along with the violations being carried out by the US, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militants backed by Washington and the PKK in the northwest of the country are, however, making trouble.
Al-Jolani declared the resumption of work at all state ministries and announced a pilot operation for the reopening of Damascus airport. He also announced the intention of major reforms including possible pay rise by 400 per cent for civil servants.
The end of the House of Assad: How, and why now?
He also declared a plan to integrate armed militias into the national army. Engaging in internal reforms and disengagement from external issues, including a conflict with Israel, are also listed among his plans.
Meanwhile, several countries announced that they were working on repairing their diplomatic ties with the new Syria. Others sent advice to the rebels, including those who suffered or observed the failure of revolutions in neighbouring countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco.
At this stage, no one can deny that the Syrians are facing major internal and external challenges. In addition to the Israeli occupation and the American colonialist movements via the SDF and the PKK, there are the hypocritical secularists, liberals, rights activists and others.
The least troublesome issue for the rebels, in my opinion, is the Israeli occupation, and the worst is American interference.
For the Syrians, Israel is an occupying regime, one that has expanded its land grab since the fall of the Syrian regime. I think Al-Jolani’s decision not to engage in a conflict with Israel is a smart one.
It is an undeniable fact that Al-Jolani was a jihadi rebel, but now he is a statesman who heads a country which needs reformation efforts to be able to rise up after 53 years of one of the worst authoritarian regimes in the world.
At the same time, thousands of freed prisoners and families who lost their loved ones during the Assad family reign need rehabilitation.
There is an urgent need to support the millions of people who had their homes destroyed and to deal with the crisis which is resulting from half of the nation that has been or is still internally or externally displaced.
It is not wise to ignore all of this and engage with conflicts and wars which need a lot of effort and resources. Treating people’s wounds and allowing them to recover from the chronic diseases is far more important than the difficult surgery needed to deal with the Israeli occupation.
For now, the new Syria can resolve the issue with the Israeli occupation through direct or indirect talks and delay any battles until the country is ready.
Israel is also not ready to engage in more conflicts, in light of its destruction of Gaza and southern Lebanon and the backlash it has faced as a result of its actions over the past 14 months.
OPINION: Liberating Syria forever
The issue of ‘Greater Israel’ and the arrogant remarks by Israeli officials do not reflect the reality on the ground in Israel, where acute divisions and polarisation are prevalent and are likely to lead to its self-destruction.
Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which has been ruling wide swathes of Syrian land adjacent to Turkiye, will not be an obstacle as it is an ally to Ankara. A number of its leaders, including its founders, have already welcomed Al-Jolani’s announcement of the formation of one national army for the whole of the country.
Turkiye is also keeping an eye on the US-backed SDF and the Kurdish PKK group.
As happened in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, the secularists, liberals, feminists and alleged rights activists are the major challenge for Syrians. They are only tools for external interference. They have already started to criticise the current rulers, claiming they are not the right people to lead the country because they will not respect the minorities, the rights of women or have a modern civilised way of governance.
They argue that those in control of the new Syria are extremist religious Muslims and they are going to create a religious state which will implement Sharia Law. It was these same people, along with anti-Muslim and Islamist propagandists, who were the main reason for the counter revolutions in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.
Where were these people over the past 53 years? Some were silent and others worked to cover up the regime’s crimes, while others believed that liberation comes through statements and reports issued by their employers in Washington or London. They never sacrificed anything for the liberation of their country.
Now, we find all of them standing up and wanting to reap the rewards of the victory of the revolution. The problem is that they spread disinformation about the Islamists who liberated the country and accuse them of being fanatics and extremists in order to turn people away from them. They are the spokespersons of foreign powers who are seeking to interfere in the internal issues of the country.
These people are either ignorant or know exactly what they are doing, undermining the creation of an Islamist government for a Muslim majority country, which will never accept any form of colonialism or external custodianship based on the exploitation of its resources and wealth. They are a real challenge because they are the face of colonial powers and the pathway of external interference.
The rebels must pay attention to them and learn lessons from the failed revolutions in neighbouring countries, be proud of their Islamic identity and work for the establishment of a constitution based on power, justice, reforms, freedoms and prosperity inspired by the ultimate justice of the Sharia Law.
They should not belittle any challenge and pay attention to the rights of every single person, engage with development and not fall into the trap of external debt and fake alliances. This is the only way for a state to survive.
abujomaaGaza
December 17, 2024
Following last week’s defeat of the Assad regime in Syria, Syrian rebels have been carrying out a peaceful takeover of the country’s offices and institutions. Rebel leader Ahmad Al Sharaa – known as Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani – tasked a representative to form a civil transitional government.
The Israeli occupation of the buffer zone in the south of Syria and its relentless bombing of the Syrian military capabilities along with the violations being carried out by the US, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militants backed by Washington and the PKK in the northwest of the country are, however, making trouble.
Al-Jolani declared the resumption of work at all state ministries and announced a pilot operation for the reopening of Damascus airport. He also announced the intention of major reforms including possible pay rise by 400 per cent for civil servants.
The end of the House of Assad: How, and why now?
He also declared a plan to integrate armed militias into the national army. Engaging in internal reforms and disengagement from external issues, including a conflict with Israel, are also listed among his plans.
Meanwhile, several countries announced that they were working on repairing their diplomatic ties with the new Syria. Others sent advice to the rebels, including those who suffered or observed the failure of revolutions in neighbouring countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco.
At this stage, no one can deny that the Syrians are facing major internal and external challenges. In addition to the Israeli occupation and the American colonialist movements via the SDF and the PKK, there are the hypocritical secularists, liberals, rights activists and others.
The least troublesome issue for the rebels, in my opinion, is the Israeli occupation, and the worst is American interference.
For the Syrians, Israel is an occupying regime, one that has expanded its land grab since the fall of the Syrian regime. I think Al-Jolani’s decision not to engage in a conflict with Israel is a smart one.
It is an undeniable fact that Al-Jolani was a jihadi rebel, but now he is a statesman who heads a country which needs reformation efforts to be able to rise up after 53 years of one of the worst authoritarian regimes in the world.
At the same time, thousands of freed prisoners and families who lost their loved ones during the Assad family reign need rehabilitation.
There is an urgent need to support the millions of people who had their homes destroyed and to deal with the crisis which is resulting from half of the nation that has been or is still internally or externally displaced.
It is not wise to ignore all of this and engage with conflicts and wars which need a lot of effort and resources. Treating people’s wounds and allowing them to recover from the chronic diseases is far more important than the difficult surgery needed to deal with the Israeli occupation.
For now, the new Syria can resolve the issue with the Israeli occupation through direct or indirect talks and delay any battles until the country is ready.
Israel is also not ready to engage in more conflicts, in light of its destruction of Gaza and southern Lebanon and the backlash it has faced as a result of its actions over the past 14 months.
OPINION: Liberating Syria forever
The issue of ‘Greater Israel’ and the arrogant remarks by Israeli officials do not reflect the reality on the ground in Israel, where acute divisions and polarisation are prevalent and are likely to lead to its self-destruction.
Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which has been ruling wide swathes of Syrian land adjacent to Turkiye, will not be an obstacle as it is an ally to Ankara. A number of its leaders, including its founders, have already welcomed Al-Jolani’s announcement of the formation of one national army for the whole of the country.
Turkiye is also keeping an eye on the US-backed SDF and the Kurdish PKK group.
As happened in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, the secularists, liberals, feminists and alleged rights activists are the major challenge for Syrians. They are only tools for external interference. They have already started to criticise the current rulers, claiming they are not the right people to lead the country because they will not respect the minorities, the rights of women or have a modern civilised way of governance.
They argue that those in control of the new Syria are extremist religious Muslims and they are going to create a religious state which will implement Sharia Law. It was these same people, along with anti-Muslim and Islamist propagandists, who were the main reason for the counter revolutions in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.
Where were these people over the past 53 years? Some were silent and others worked to cover up the regime’s crimes, while others believed that liberation comes through statements and reports issued by their employers in Washington or London. They never sacrificed anything for the liberation of their country.
Now, we find all of them standing up and wanting to reap the rewards of the victory of the revolution. The problem is that they spread disinformation about the Islamists who liberated the country and accuse them of being fanatics and extremists in order to turn people away from them. They are the spokespersons of foreign powers who are seeking to interfere in the internal issues of the country.
These people are either ignorant or know exactly what they are doing, undermining the creation of an Islamist government for a Muslim majority country, which will never accept any form of colonialism or external custodianship based on the exploitation of its resources and wealth. They are a real challenge because they are the face of colonial powers and the pathway of external interference.
The rebels must pay attention to them and learn lessons from the failed revolutions in neighbouring countries, be proud of their Islamic identity and work for the establishment of a constitution based on power, justice, reforms, freedoms and prosperity inspired by the ultimate justice of the Sharia Law.
They should not belittle any challenge and pay attention to the rights of every single person, engage with development and not fall into the trap of external debt and fake alliances. This is the only way for a state to survive.
Opinion
The Zionist Emirates are starting to play in Syria, so revolutionaries beware
People gather the mosque and its surroundings with “Syrian revolution flag” and chant slogans calling for the country’s freedom and a “new Syria” after performing the first Friday prayer at the Umayyad Mosque following the collapse of the 61-year-long Baath regime in Syria and the end of the Assad family’s rule in Damascus, Syria, on December 13, 2024. [Emin Sansar – Anadolu Agency]
by Dr Amira Abo el-Fetouh
December 23, 2024
Public squares across Syria have been filled with people raising the green flag of independence, from the Umayyad Mosque Square in Damascus to Daraa in the south, Aleppo, Hama and Homs in the north and Latakia on the coast. The Syrians have rejoiced in the success of their revolution against the bloodthirsty tyrant Bashar Al-Assad, and the fall of the fascist regime that has oppressed them for 54 years.
This popular outpouring of joy, of course, has scared tyrannical rulers in other Arab countries who are cut from the same cloth as Assad; they fear that the flood will spill over into their land and that they too will lose their thrones. They treat the people as if they are nothing but slaves who have no right to participate in government or even express an opinion or advise them in accordance with the Qur’anic verse, “Consult them in affairs”. Instead, if anyone dares to express any objections or show displeasure at how their country is ruled, they end up in prisons very similar to those run by the Assad regime in Syria.
The Arab tyrants fear the success of the Syrian revolution not least because it has an Islamic aspect. They hate “Islamists” and, like the West, call Muslims who want Islam to have a say in how their societies are run, “terrorists”. They work using all the means at their disposal, including wealth, weapons and media, to prevent Islamist movements or individuals from ruling any Arab country. With the fall of the butcher Bashar, whom they supported until the last moment before his humiliating flight, their thrones shook under their feet.
The centre of the counter-revolutions established in the UAE — the Zionist Emirates — is still in place.
The tyrants have thus decided to revive the counter-revolutions that they backed against the Arab Spring in 2011 in Egypt, Yemen and Libya. However, they quite possibly have not given due thought to the fact that what worked for them in 2011 will no longer work in 2024, and that the past 13 years were enough to increase the awareness of the people and their understanding of the great conspiracy plotted behind closed doors against the struggles for freedom, dignity and justice.
All of the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions have faced challenges that led to their decline. The most dangerous of these remains the deep state’s cooperation with the remnants of the ousted regimes, especially in the security services and countries that recruited them to do the dirty work against their own people.
Hence, they told a group of Syrian followers of the ousted Assad regime to gather in Umayyad Square — there were no more than 250 of them — to demand a secular state. They did not raise the Syrian flag. These are the same people who took to the streets in support of the butcher Bashar and demanded the extermination of the revolutionaries. They praised him for dropping barrel bombs on the heads of their Syrian brothers and sisters.
Secularism in Syria during the rule of the Assad family was a domesticated ideology which did not allow even a hint of criticism of the regime for decades. It was an ideology that linked intelligence officers, artists and intellectuals, and legitimised the demonisation of large groups of Syrian society, not just the Islamists. The leading advocates of what is known as authoritarian secularism, or sometimes called secular jihadism, did not write a single article or utter a single word against the regime. They were not only hostile to Islamists; their hostility also extended to the democrats, who defend the priority of political change, public freedoms and free elections.
The secularists in Syria have a shameful record.
What I fear most is that the remnants of the regime, with their hateful ideology, will be a false witness to the present just as they were a false witness to the recent past.
The new leadership in Syria should, therefore, deliver real transitional justice quickly and introduce a genuine, non-arbitrary political isolation law so that the supporters of barrel bombs in Syria cannot return to leading demonstrations demanding democracy, as they once demanded such murderous bombings.
As soon as the Assad regime fell, some of those outside Syria affected by its fall began trying to sow discord among the people so that they might take revenge for the regime’s crimes, turning the joy of a historic victory into a civil war along sectarian and ethnic lines. Although the first few days after the fall of the regime passed relatively peacefully, some malicious voices were heard. Known for their suspicious loyalties to Syria’s enemies they began to play the sectarian card, spread rumours and fabricate stories made up in their sick imaginations. They wanted not only to spoil the celebratory atmosphere, but also to confuse the situation and draw attention to an alleged internal conflict. Such blatant incitement is intended to create the environment for the break-up of Syria into sectarian and ethnic states that the region’s enemies dream about.
The revolutionaries need to keep their wits about them and be aware that the Zionists, especially those from the UAE, are starting to play in Syria. Conspiracies are being plotted, at home and abroad to destroy Syria. May God protect Syria and its people.
Opinion
Sectarian demographics are reshuffled in the new Damascus
Umayyad Mosque, 2023 [Omar Ahmed/Middle East Monitor]
by Omar Ahmed
December 16, 2024
The first Friday prayers held in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus after the collapse of the Bashar Al-Assad regime were attended by thousands, marking a symbolic transformation with immense religious and political significance. While the call to prayer and the majority Sunni worshippers were not barred under Assad, the event symbolised the restoration of Sunni dominance in a city that had become increasingly Shia, and was seen as one of four Arab capitals firmly under Iran’s sphere of influence. As a city, it has undergone decades of demographic reshuffling and sectarian social engineering under the Assad dynasty and its Iranian allies.
It was a week ago that Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani declared the end of the Assad government in his victory speech at the 1,300-year-old mosque, saying that “Syria is being purified.” Jolani also remarked: “This new triumph… marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers [that left] Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption.”
Indicating an inclusive outlook for post-Assad Syria and ahead of the fall of Damascus, he told CNN that, “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.” This was reiterated by Syria’s interim Prime Minister Mohammad Al-Bashir, who has pledged to protect minority rights.
Uncertainty and apprehension persists
However, uncertainty and apprehension persists among Syria’s Shia minority regarding the fate of their revered religious sites, most notably the Sayyida Zainab shrine on the outskirts of Damascus. These concerns appear justified, as Al-Mayadeen reported on Wednesday that armed men attempted to enter the shrine “but were forced to remain in the courtyard and were banned from entering the Shrine where the tomb is located.”
Yet speaking to MEMO, Mohamed Raza Jaffer, who has been organising pilgrimage trips in Syria for the past 15 years, expressed optimism. Referring to reports that the interim government will adopt a free market model, he said, “The new government is taking better steps for the public in terms of reducing duty on cars and mobile phones.” He also affirmed that the shrines would remain safe and intact. “The situation of Shia shrines will also be protected, and they will invite tourism in the area from around the world.”
Sayyida Zainab shrine, 2023 [Omar Ahmed/Middle East Monitor]For years, the shrine dedicated to the granddaughter of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) was defended by Iranian-backed factions, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Afghan and Pakistani fighters recruited under the “shrine defenders” banner. The then-threat from Sunni extremist groups was used to justify both the militarisation of the area and its demographic transformation, with a noticeable influx of Shia residents replacing displaced Sunni communities.
In March 2023, during a visit to Damascus, I experienced first-hand the almost surreal atmosphere surrounding the Sayyida Zainab district. Security was managed tightly by armed militias, whose presence, while imposing, lent a sense of order and safety, although now a distant memory. Foreign shrine defenders have since withdrawn, having been assured that the site would remain protected, while all Iranian workers stationed at the shrine and the city were evacuated before Damascus fell. The nearby market was adorned with religious banners and posters of Shia scholars and Axis of Resistance figures, scenes that will likely be deemed controversial, if not prohibited, under the new authorities in Syria.
Market near the Sayyida Zainab shrine, 2023. [Omar Ahmed/Middle East Monitor]Under the Assads — both Hafez and Bashar — Syria’s sectarian balance was reshaped meticulously with demographic changes starting in the 1980s. The state’s survival strategy hinged on bolstering Alawite and Shia influence in key regions, including the capital, while marginalising the Sunni majority. This was part of a broader strategy to safeguard “Useful Syria,” a term attributed to Bashar Al-Assad, encompassing a sectarian stronghold in key governorates.
These numbers reflect a deliberate influx of Shia residents
According to the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies (KFCRIS), “The period between [1970 – 2007] is considered the golden phase of conversion to Shiism in Syria.” By 2016, the Shia population in Damascus had increased more than tenfold, rising from 26,000 in 2011 to 350,000. These numbers reflect a deliberate influx of Shia residents, many of whom were relocated from other regions or were foreign fighters and their families.
Iranian-backed initiatives purchased vast amounts of real estate in Old Damascus, particularly near the Sayyida Zainab shrine. At the time, this was reported extensively in Arabic and international media, with some claims of forced sales and incentivised migration displacing Sunni residents.
Iranian cultural centres and Shia seminaries also proliferated throughout the country. In 2021, the pro-Israel US think-tank the Washington Institute noted that, “Up until the mid-1970s, Syria had no Shia seminaries, but it now has at least seventy.” The establishment of these institutions sought to embed Twelver Shia Islam into the fabric of the Sunni-majority country. Foreign Policy that same year stated that Iran had been encouraging Sunnis to convert to Shiism “or, at the very least, soften their attitudes toward their sectarian rivals.”
READ: Syrian clerics in former Assad stronghold call for national unity, democracy
The fall of Assad and the subsequent takeover of Damascus by HTS and other rebel groups has disrupted this dynamic and the potential to bring about a new wave of demographical upheaval in years to come. The Umayyad Mosque houses the shrine of John the Baptist (Prophet Yahya) and is believed by many Muslims to be the site of the prophesied return of Jesus (Prophet Isa). Yet the mosque also holds the maqam or station of Imam Zain Al-Abideen, the Prophet’s great-grandson, who prayed at the site during his captivity in Damascus after the tragedy of Karbala. Additionally, the mosque contains the maqam where the severed head of his father, Imam Hussein, was kept and displayed by the Umayyad caliph Yazid.
Maqam of Imam Zain Al-Abideen, Umayyad Mosque, 2023. [Omar Ahmed/Middle East Monitor]Whether these deeply revered and historically significant sites will remain intact and accessible under the governance of a more Salafi-influenced leadership, as opposed to the historically Sufi-inclined Sunni Islam of Damascus, remains uncertain. The preservation of these sites will likely be a critical litmus test for the inclusivity and cohesion pledged by the new authorities.
The ousting of Assad is a devastating blow to the Axis of Resistance
Aside from the sectarian implications and demographic fall-out, the ousting of Assad is a devastating blow to the Axis of Resistance. For over a decade, Syria was the linchpin of the resistance, serving as a conduit for weapons to Hezbollah and a stage for Iran’s projection of power.
Supporters of the previous government argue that its ability to maintain a stalemate with Israel over the occupied Golan Heights helped preserve Syria’s territorial integrity, even amid repeated violations of its sovereignty by the occupation state. In contrast, HTS’s control of Damascus has raised fears of further Israeli exploitation and land grabs. Thus far, the expanded Israeli occupation of Syrian territories has been met with no resistance, nor has the issue been addressed by the interim government; it’s an approach that would have been unthinkable under the previous status quo.
The demographic and sectarian reshuffling of Damascus over decades has left a deeply fractured city. Assad’s policies, bolstered by Iranian support, sought to entrench a Shia presence bolstering the so-called “Shia Crescent” and the Resistance Axis, but this marginalised Sunni communities. These dynamics have clearly been upended, albeit with lingering risks of renewed sectarian conflict.
In 2020, the Carnegie Middle East Centre observed that, “The end of hostilities is unlikely to have an appreciable effect on the regime’s redrawing of the capital city’s Sunni religious landscape. What remains to be seen is which side, the regime or the opposition, will succeed in harnessing this drastic change to the landscape.”
The question now is how the new leadership will leave its mark on the ancient capital; whether it will focus on consolidating its newfound power, mindful of its own foreign contingents among rebel forces, as well as the returning Syrian refugees who will play a key role in rebuilding and repopulating both the country and its capital.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
The Zionist Emirates are starting to play in Syria, so revolutionaries beware
People gather the mosque and its surroundings with “Syrian revolution flag” and chant slogans calling for the country’s freedom and a “new Syria” after performing the first Friday prayer at the Umayyad Mosque following the collapse of the 61-year-long Baath regime in Syria and the end of the Assad family’s rule in Damascus, Syria, on December 13, 2024. [Emin Sansar – Anadolu Agency]
by Dr Amira Abo el-Fetouh
December 23, 2024
Public squares across Syria have been filled with people raising the green flag of independence, from the Umayyad Mosque Square in Damascus to Daraa in the south, Aleppo, Hama and Homs in the north and Latakia on the coast. The Syrians have rejoiced in the success of their revolution against the bloodthirsty tyrant Bashar Al-Assad, and the fall of the fascist regime that has oppressed them for 54 years.
This popular outpouring of joy, of course, has scared tyrannical rulers in other Arab countries who are cut from the same cloth as Assad; they fear that the flood will spill over into their land and that they too will lose their thrones. They treat the people as if they are nothing but slaves who have no right to participate in government or even express an opinion or advise them in accordance with the Qur’anic verse, “Consult them in affairs”. Instead, if anyone dares to express any objections or show displeasure at how their country is ruled, they end up in prisons very similar to those run by the Assad regime in Syria.
The Arab tyrants fear the success of the Syrian revolution not least because it has an Islamic aspect. They hate “Islamists” and, like the West, call Muslims who want Islam to have a say in how their societies are run, “terrorists”. They work using all the means at their disposal, including wealth, weapons and media, to prevent Islamist movements or individuals from ruling any Arab country. With the fall of the butcher Bashar, whom they supported until the last moment before his humiliating flight, their thrones shook under their feet.
The centre of the counter-revolutions established in the UAE — the Zionist Emirates — is still in place.
The tyrants have thus decided to revive the counter-revolutions that they backed against the Arab Spring in 2011 in Egypt, Yemen and Libya. However, they quite possibly have not given due thought to the fact that what worked for them in 2011 will no longer work in 2024, and that the past 13 years were enough to increase the awareness of the people and their understanding of the great conspiracy plotted behind closed doors against the struggles for freedom, dignity and justice.
All of the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions have faced challenges that led to their decline. The most dangerous of these remains the deep state’s cooperation with the remnants of the ousted regimes, especially in the security services and countries that recruited them to do the dirty work against their own people.
Hence, they told a group of Syrian followers of the ousted Assad regime to gather in Umayyad Square — there were no more than 250 of them — to demand a secular state. They did not raise the Syrian flag. These are the same people who took to the streets in support of the butcher Bashar and demanded the extermination of the revolutionaries. They praised him for dropping barrel bombs on the heads of their Syrian brothers and sisters.
Secularism in Syria during the rule of the Assad family was a domesticated ideology which did not allow even a hint of criticism of the regime for decades. It was an ideology that linked intelligence officers, artists and intellectuals, and legitimised the demonisation of large groups of Syrian society, not just the Islamists. The leading advocates of what is known as authoritarian secularism, or sometimes called secular jihadism, did not write a single article or utter a single word against the regime. They were not only hostile to Islamists; their hostility also extended to the democrats, who defend the priority of political change, public freedoms and free elections.
The secularists in Syria have a shameful record.
What I fear most is that the remnants of the regime, with their hateful ideology, will be a false witness to the present just as they were a false witness to the recent past.
The new leadership in Syria should, therefore, deliver real transitional justice quickly and introduce a genuine, non-arbitrary political isolation law so that the supporters of barrel bombs in Syria cannot return to leading demonstrations demanding democracy, as they once demanded such murderous bombings.
As soon as the Assad regime fell, some of those outside Syria affected by its fall began trying to sow discord among the people so that they might take revenge for the regime’s crimes, turning the joy of a historic victory into a civil war along sectarian and ethnic lines. Although the first few days after the fall of the regime passed relatively peacefully, some malicious voices were heard. Known for their suspicious loyalties to Syria’s enemies they began to play the sectarian card, spread rumours and fabricate stories made up in their sick imaginations. They wanted not only to spoil the celebratory atmosphere, but also to confuse the situation and draw attention to an alleged internal conflict. Such blatant incitement is intended to create the environment for the break-up of Syria into sectarian and ethnic states that the region’s enemies dream about.
The revolutionaries need to keep their wits about them and be aware that the Zionists, especially those from the UAE, are starting to play in Syria. Conspiracies are being plotted, at home and abroad to destroy Syria. May God protect Syria and its people.
Opinion
Sectarian demographics are reshuffled in the new Damascus
Umayyad Mosque, 2023 [Omar Ahmed/Middle East Monitor]
by Omar Ahmed
December 16, 2024
The first Friday prayers held in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus after the collapse of the Bashar Al-Assad regime were attended by thousands, marking a symbolic transformation with immense religious and political significance. While the call to prayer and the majority Sunni worshippers were not barred under Assad, the event symbolised the restoration of Sunni dominance in a city that had become increasingly Shia, and was seen as one of four Arab capitals firmly under Iran’s sphere of influence. As a city, it has undergone decades of demographic reshuffling and sectarian social engineering under the Assad dynasty and its Iranian allies.
It was a week ago that Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani declared the end of the Assad government in his victory speech at the 1,300-year-old mosque, saying that “Syria is being purified.” Jolani also remarked: “This new triumph… marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers [that left] Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption.”
Indicating an inclusive outlook for post-Assad Syria and ahead of the fall of Damascus, he told CNN that, “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.” This was reiterated by Syria’s interim Prime Minister Mohammad Al-Bashir, who has pledged to protect minority rights.
Uncertainty and apprehension persists
However, uncertainty and apprehension persists among Syria’s Shia minority regarding the fate of their revered religious sites, most notably the Sayyida Zainab shrine on the outskirts of Damascus. These concerns appear justified, as Al-Mayadeen reported on Wednesday that armed men attempted to enter the shrine “but were forced to remain in the courtyard and were banned from entering the Shrine where the tomb is located.”
Yet speaking to MEMO, Mohamed Raza Jaffer, who has been organising pilgrimage trips in Syria for the past 15 years, expressed optimism. Referring to reports that the interim government will adopt a free market model, he said, “The new government is taking better steps for the public in terms of reducing duty on cars and mobile phones.” He also affirmed that the shrines would remain safe and intact. “The situation of Shia shrines will also be protected, and they will invite tourism in the area from around the world.”
Sayyida Zainab shrine, 2023 [Omar Ahmed/Middle East Monitor]For years, the shrine dedicated to the granddaughter of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) was defended by Iranian-backed factions, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Afghan and Pakistani fighters recruited under the “shrine defenders” banner. The then-threat from Sunni extremist groups was used to justify both the militarisation of the area and its demographic transformation, with a noticeable influx of Shia residents replacing displaced Sunni communities.
In March 2023, during a visit to Damascus, I experienced first-hand the almost surreal atmosphere surrounding the Sayyida Zainab district. Security was managed tightly by armed militias, whose presence, while imposing, lent a sense of order and safety, although now a distant memory. Foreign shrine defenders have since withdrawn, having been assured that the site would remain protected, while all Iranian workers stationed at the shrine and the city were evacuated before Damascus fell. The nearby market was adorned with religious banners and posters of Shia scholars and Axis of Resistance figures, scenes that will likely be deemed controversial, if not prohibited, under the new authorities in Syria.
Market near the Sayyida Zainab shrine, 2023. [Omar Ahmed/Middle East Monitor]Under the Assads — both Hafez and Bashar — Syria’s sectarian balance was reshaped meticulously with demographic changes starting in the 1980s. The state’s survival strategy hinged on bolstering Alawite and Shia influence in key regions, including the capital, while marginalising the Sunni majority. This was part of a broader strategy to safeguard “Useful Syria,” a term attributed to Bashar Al-Assad, encompassing a sectarian stronghold in key governorates.
These numbers reflect a deliberate influx of Shia residents
According to the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies (KFCRIS), “The period between [1970 – 2007] is considered the golden phase of conversion to Shiism in Syria.” By 2016, the Shia population in Damascus had increased more than tenfold, rising from 26,000 in 2011 to 350,000. These numbers reflect a deliberate influx of Shia residents, many of whom were relocated from other regions or were foreign fighters and their families.
Iranian-backed initiatives purchased vast amounts of real estate in Old Damascus, particularly near the Sayyida Zainab shrine. At the time, this was reported extensively in Arabic and international media, with some claims of forced sales and incentivised migration displacing Sunni residents.
Iranian cultural centres and Shia seminaries also proliferated throughout the country. In 2021, the pro-Israel US think-tank the Washington Institute noted that, “Up until the mid-1970s, Syria had no Shia seminaries, but it now has at least seventy.” The establishment of these institutions sought to embed Twelver Shia Islam into the fabric of the Sunni-majority country. Foreign Policy that same year stated that Iran had been encouraging Sunnis to convert to Shiism “or, at the very least, soften their attitudes toward their sectarian rivals.”
READ: Syrian clerics in former Assad stronghold call for national unity, democracy
The fall of Assad and the subsequent takeover of Damascus by HTS and other rebel groups has disrupted this dynamic and the potential to bring about a new wave of demographical upheaval in years to come. The Umayyad Mosque houses the shrine of John the Baptist (Prophet Yahya) and is believed by many Muslims to be the site of the prophesied return of Jesus (Prophet Isa). Yet the mosque also holds the maqam or station of Imam Zain Al-Abideen, the Prophet’s great-grandson, who prayed at the site during his captivity in Damascus after the tragedy of Karbala. Additionally, the mosque contains the maqam where the severed head of his father, Imam Hussein, was kept and displayed by the Umayyad caliph Yazid.
Maqam of Imam Zain Al-Abideen, Umayyad Mosque, 2023. [Omar Ahmed/Middle East Monitor]Whether these deeply revered and historically significant sites will remain intact and accessible under the governance of a more Salafi-influenced leadership, as opposed to the historically Sufi-inclined Sunni Islam of Damascus, remains uncertain. The preservation of these sites will likely be a critical litmus test for the inclusivity and cohesion pledged by the new authorities.
The ousting of Assad is a devastating blow to the Axis of Resistance
Aside from the sectarian implications and demographic fall-out, the ousting of Assad is a devastating blow to the Axis of Resistance. For over a decade, Syria was the linchpin of the resistance, serving as a conduit for weapons to Hezbollah and a stage for Iran’s projection of power.
Supporters of the previous government argue that its ability to maintain a stalemate with Israel over the occupied Golan Heights helped preserve Syria’s territorial integrity, even amid repeated violations of its sovereignty by the occupation state. In contrast, HTS’s control of Damascus has raised fears of further Israeli exploitation and land grabs. Thus far, the expanded Israeli occupation of Syrian territories has been met with no resistance, nor has the issue been addressed by the interim government; it’s an approach that would have been unthinkable under the previous status quo.
The demographic and sectarian reshuffling of Damascus over decades has left a deeply fractured city. Assad’s policies, bolstered by Iranian support, sought to entrench a Shia presence bolstering the so-called “Shia Crescent” and the Resistance Axis, but this marginalised Sunni communities. These dynamics have clearly been upended, albeit with lingering risks of renewed sectarian conflict.
In 2020, the Carnegie Middle East Centre observed that, “The end of hostilities is unlikely to have an appreciable effect on the regime’s redrawing of the capital city’s Sunni religious landscape. What remains to be seen is which side, the regime or the opposition, will succeed in harnessing this drastic change to the landscape.”
The question now is how the new leadership will leave its mark on the ancient capital; whether it will focus on consolidating its newfound power, mindful of its own foreign contingents among rebel forces, as well as the returning Syrian refugees who will play a key role in rebuilding and repopulating both the country and its capital.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
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