Saturday, December 28, 2024

From disaster to detection: The global push for tsunami preparedness

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami exposed the world's lack of a warning and detection system. Since then, a host of measures have been taken to detect the deadly surge of water after a quake.



The first-ever "DART" buoy sits aboard a research vessel in Phuket, Thailand. 
/ Photo: AP Archive


Two decades after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami killed over 220,000 people across 14 countries, significant advancements have been made in tsunami detection and early warning systems, transforming global disaster preparedness.

Before the tragedy, the Indian Ocean region lacked a formal tsunami warning system, leaving coastal communities vulnerable to such disasters.

“Apart from the Pacific, there was almost no exchange of real-time data for tsunami warnings, and no deep-ocean monitoring systems in place,” said Denis Chang Seng, Programme Specialist for the Tsunami Resilience Section at UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC/UNESCO).

In the following years, the international and regional community acted decisively, with significant efforts to ensure such a disaster would never happen again.

A tsunami of advancements

Today, several measures are in place across the world’s oceans, with regional Tsunami Warning Systems in the Pacific, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, Caribbean, and North-East Atlantic.

According to Rick Bailey, Head of the Secretariat for the IOC/UNESCO’s Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System, there are now 11 Tsunami Service Providers giving critical threat advice to Tsunami Warning Centres in each country.

These systems issue warnings within 10 to 20 minutes after a potentially tsunami-generating earthquake is detected.

However, the challenges remain. “It’s still technically difficult to generate a timely and accurate warning, especially when the earthquake epicentre is close to the coast,” said UNESCO’s Chang Seng.

In such cases, the amount of time available for evacuation is limited, requiring highly precise, real-time data for effective response.




From seismic sensors to AI

A cornerstone of modern tsunami detection is the deployment of technologies like the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys.

These ocean sensors track tsunami waves in real-time, providing invaluable data to refine warnings.

The Indian Ocean now boasts an extensive network of sensors, including wave rider buoys, pressure recorders, and tide gauges, which contribute to a comprehensive understanding of tsunami behaviour and lead to faster alerts.

In addition to these tools, artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming a critical innovation in tsunami detection.

Scientists at Cardiff University have developed an AI-powered system to monitor tectonic plate movements in real-time. By combining underwater microphones, called hydrophones, with AI computational models, the system can triangulate the source of a tectonic event—even thousands of kilometres away.

This method has already been used to detect over 200 earthquakes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, further enhancing the ability to predict and monitor potential tsunami threats.

This integration of AI offers an unprecedented ability to analyse seismic data and ocean behaviour more quickly and accurately, leading to better-informed tsunami warnings and faster responses.

Here's how various countries with vast shorelines have geared up to detect tsunamis.

India

The Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) in Hyderabad is now equipped with a sophisticated network of seismic sensors, satellite communication systems, and deep-ocean pressure recorders.

The system monitors seismic activity in real-time, simulates tsunami propagation, and disseminates warnings to affected regions.

Indonesia

Indonesia, which bore the brunt of the 2004 tsunami, has significantly strengthened its tsunami detection capabilities.

The Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (INA-TEWS), launched in 2008, integrates seismic sensors, GPS instruments, tide gauges, and ocean-bottom pressure sensors to monitor seismic activity and detect tsunami threats.

The country also relies on Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoys to track ocean movements and provide real-time tsunami data.

However, challenges persist. Muksin, a coordinator at the Tsunami and Disaster-Mitigation Research Center in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, said some monitoring equipment, including sea-level buoys, has been damaged.

Despite these issues, Indonesia’s core tsunami detection system remains operational, and the country has continued to upgrade its technology.

Furthermore, Muksin, who goes by one name, highlighted that Indonesia’s tsunami preparedness is strongly supported by local awareness, with coastal communities adopting better building practices and disaster responses compared to other parts of Indonesia.



Thailand


Thailand has also made notable progress in tsunami detection since the 2004 disaster.


The Thai government established two tsunami detection stations after the event: one in 2006, located about 965 km (600 miles) from Phuket, and another in 2017, about 340 km (211 miles) from Phuket within Thailand’s exclusive economic zone.


These stations are crucial in detecting potential tsunami-generating earthquakes in the region.


Despite this, concerns remain about the public response to warnings. As some officials have pointed out, there are instances where tsunami warnings may be ignored by local populations due to complacency or a lack of awareness of the full extent of the threat.


This underscores the importance of continuous education and evacuation drills to ensure the public takes the threat seriously and knows how to respond when warnings are issued.


Malaysia


Malaysia has implemented the National Tsunami Early Warning System (MATEWS), which integrates data from international sources such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and the Japan Meteorological Agency.


The system includes seismic sensors, tide gauges, and DART buoys, and it activates 83 tsunami sirens across the country when a threat is detected.


The alerts are further disseminated through SMS messages, media broadcasts, and television notifications.


In addition to technological infrastructure, Malaysia has conducted regular tsunami drills since 2006, enhancing public preparedness.


According to Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, Director-General of METMalaysia, these drills have helped improve the country’s response to tsunami threats.


However, as with other nations, ongoing public education is crucial to ensure that communities understand the risks and know how to respond when a tsunami warning is issued.


Preparing for the worst


UNESCO's Tsunami Ready programme, launched in 2015, aims to go beyond issuing warnings by fostering community preparedness.


The programme recognises communities that meet 12 preparedness standards, including hazard mapping, evacuation drills, and public education. To date, over 30 countries have communities that are officially "Tsunami Ready."


“We’ve moved beyond just providing alerts to ensuring communities are equipped to act when a tsunami is imminent,” said Bernardo Aliaga, Head of Tsunami Resilience at UNESCO.


"This approach has saved countless lives by preparing communities for a disaster before it strikes.”


The importance of human judgment in response cannot be overstated. While technology has advanced dramatically, as Muksin notes, “even the most advanced technology cannot replace human action.”


The future of tsunami preparedness


Looking ahead, UNESCO has ambitious goals, with plans to make all at-risk communities "Tsunami Ready" by 2030 and to map 100 percent of the seabed—a critical step for improving tsunami forecasting and risk assessment.


Machine learning and artificial intelligence are also being integrated into tsunami modelling, allowing for more accurate and targeted warnings.


In addition to technological advancements, experts emphasise the importance of public outreach and education.


A 2023 test of the US tsunami warning system demonstrated the challenges in issuing location-specific alerts.


While millions received warnings after a minor tsunami off the coast of Northern California, confusion arose due to the lack of tailored information for different locales.


Experts stress the need for improved communication, including real-time updates and detailed evacuation instructions for affected areas.


The Mediterranean region, where tsunami risk is substantial but detection systems remain underdeveloped, highlights the need for continued improvement.


Only 10 tidal gauges currently monitor tsunami activity in the Aegean Sea, despite the region's vulnerability.




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