The Myth of The Iron Dome
Photograph Source: Ashton Carter – CC BY 2.0
The proper way of understanding the two serious Iranian missile barrages on Israel is as a demonstration of the fragility of the iron dome.
Every missile in the iron dome arsenal by definition has to be a smart bomb—after all, they are trying to shoot missiles out of the sky. And since Israelis have a very low tolerance for losses, several iron dome missiles are sent to take out each incoming missile. Each of these missiles is quite expensive; and in fact, due to logistical and supply chain realities, not exactly easy to replace. This is one of the reasons Hezbollah occasionally launches missiles at Israel—there is a massive cost imbalance, and they are depleting financial and military resources.
Now to return to the two Iranian barrages. In each case, they exhausted the iron dome within a few days. Basically, Israel’s shields were down. Had they wanted to, at that point, Iran or Hezbollah could have rained hellfire down on Tel Aviv. The fact that they didn’t shows that this should be properly interpreted as a warning—we can leave you exposed to the estimated 100,000 plus missiles that it is believed Hezbollah has in their possession. The fact that Iran stopped their barrage as soon as the shields were down demonstrates that they are showing restraint. Obviously this restraint doesn’t come from any humanitarian place—the Iranian regime is a disgusting, fascist kleptocracy. It comes from self preservation—they are aware that should they rain hellfire upon Tel Aviv, they will surely be destroyed by Israel’s nuclear arsenal.
During the second barrage, after bringing down the iron dome, they decided to hit a few military targets in forward positions intended to control the contested Golan Heights. But again, after a few hits on bases, they stopped.
Now, what does this mean for Israel? It means that the current war (genocide), and especially the threats of expansion of war into neighbouring countries allied with Iran, poses an existential threat to Israel. The real threat comes from within—from the current regime, the war cabinet, and the drastic rightward shift in Israeli society that has occurred under Netanyahu’s rule—and in fact was in many ways intentionally created by his policies.
Israelis clearly do not want to suffer the consequences of Netanyahu’s drastic attempts to establish a legacy that he hopes will save him from the laundry list of crimes for which he was about to be prosecuted before the war started. In late 2023, Netanyahu visited hospitals in northern Israel, and told them they should be ready to accept a large number of casualties in a short period of time. When this news became public, there were massive protests demanding his removal from office, which led to his backing down; but it appears he is attempting to replicate Menachem Begin’s strategy of provoking attacks against Israel in order to garner support for the war he wants.
None of this even begins to address the massive psychological trauma that Israeli soldiers are experiencing as a result of having been ordered to commit a genocide. Psychiatric hospitals in Israel are overflowing. Basically, a generation of Israelis has been psychologically ruined as a result of Netanyahu‘s policies which have been described by former Israeli Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert as having blown up in our faces on October 7.
To return to the original point — Iran’s two missile barrages should be understood as a warning that the iron dome does not provide the protection that Israelis have been told it provides. Should a real intense conflict break out, it will not be like the 1967 or 1973 wars. This time, there will be massive Israeli casualties, and anyone who cares about Israel or Israeli lives should be very concerned at the obvious escalation that the war cabinet has been driving at since October 7.
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