The Real Reason Putin’s Offer Was Too Good
for Trump To Refuse
By Robert Berke - Apr 01, 2025,
An understanding between Trump and Putin behind the scenes has already been reached.
The understanding between Putin and Trump involves U.S. recognition of Russian territorial gains in exchange for economic incentives and peace.
Trump’s alignment with U.S. oil interests and Putin’s resource offerings—including Arctic oil and Russian lithium—form the foundation of a proposed U.S.–Russia energy partnership.
The Western news media on the US/Russia relations is almost always so far behind the curve, that it’s a miracle they’re still in the game.
Anyone who follows the issue closely knows that the deal between the US and Russia to end the war in Ukraine has already been struck, the rest is rhetoric.
Putin knows that the mere mention of money makes Trump salivate, as shown by Netanyahu’s offer to the US of Gaza as a new gilded seaside resort.
Not surprisingly, Putin followed up with an offer of another gilded seaside resort in Crimea, on the Black Sea coastline, favored by Russian oligarchs and Putin himself.
The truth is that Russia has far more to offer than either Israel or Ukraine could ever imagine, including allowing the return of US energy companies to the huge energy reserves in Russia, that they were forced to leave because of US sanctions.
While Putin’s FASCIST philosopher friend, Alexander Dugan, maintains that Trump and Putin see eye to eye on traditional values, their connection has nothing to do with values, tradition or otherwise.
Instead, it’s all about oil. Trump has always been in the pocket of the US oil industry, while Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of fossil fuels. Russia is also the largest block of land in the Arctic, and it is known to hold vast and mostly untapped mineral wealth.
Recall that in his first term in office, he appointed Rex Tillerson, former CEO of ExxonMobil as his choice for Secretary of State.
That would have put him in good stead with the Rockefeller family, who still own a large stake in the giant oil company. It would also have answered Trump’s dream of riding to reelection on the back of big oil, had Tillerson not split on bad terms with the
Currently, Trump has issued an executive order, opening Alaska Federal Reserves to oil industries, that were formerly banned by the Obama and Biden Administrations.
The world has yet to realize that changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America is not merely word play or symbolism.
The Gulf is a rich reservoir of energy, which both US, in the north, and Mexico, in the south, have exploited for decades. Trump intends to not only own the Panama Canal, Canada, and Greenland, he also intends to own the entire Gulf, Mexico be damned.
Further gifts to big oil include Trump’s all-out assault on green policies, as his Executive Order to end the Environmental Protection Agency clearly illustrated.
Trump's often repeated theme of ‘drill baby drill,’ says it all.
Russia offered a ‘welcome back’ to US oil companies to resume their large-scale work and huge investments in Russia, which they were forced to leave because of US sanctions. Also, Russia has offered the US joint ventures to exploit the Arctic.
In addition, Russia is also offering to joint venture in the development of its own lithium reserves, many times larger than Ukraine’s.
All this in return for recognizing Russia’s conquered territories, while dropping US sanctions against Russia.
Trump has also attempted to negotiate a partial cease-fire between the two warring countries, aimed at halting attacks on their energy facilities, and Black Sea shipping.
If accepted, this would enable both countries, that are world class exporters of agriculture, including grains and fertilizer, to resume exports, that were largely interrupted because of the ongoing combat.
The proposal offers the promise of substantially reduced energy and food prices, while also significantly reducing the rate of world inflation far more than any other issue on the President’s agenda.
Except for one other item. Trump has gone much further than anyone expected, publicly offering a major disarmament program between the two nations, with a proposal to halve the military budgets of both countries. If allowed to proceed, that could result in enormous savings on both sides.
There are widespread suspicions that Trump’s gutting of the US military and CIA leadership by replacing them with far less experience ‘yes men,’ may also be politically suspect.
It’s well known that the US military and intelligence personnel, along with that of their British and NATO partners, all steeped in cold war ideology, are directly involved in the defense of Ukraine.
It’s hard to believe that their replacement with far less qualified people would not find favor in the Kremlin.
Also on the political agenda, the US wants to breach Russia’s alliance with China, considered to be America’s chief rival. For this author, that seems a much dicier proposition.
For similar economic and political reasons, the US is also offering peace to Iran, which would include dropping sanctions in exchange for a new nuke deal. If sanctions were dropped, Iran could become one of the world’s largest producers of oil and gas.
Sidelining Trump’s European allies, and adding insult to injury, clearly shows Trump’s animosity towards NATO, Russia’s top adversary.
Canceling of the Voice of America broadcast outlet and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, whose programming confronts authoritarianism and promotes democracy, is clearly in the same vein.
This entire scenario will certainly be viewed in Moscow as the largest peace offering ever from any US Administration.
With all this, why wouldn’t Russia agree to end the war, gaining a much larger buffer zone with Ukraine, while annexing some twenty percent of Ukraine’s most productive territory, and adding 5 million new Russian speaking citizens?
As important to Russia is the US recognition of it as an economic partner, along with the dropping of US sanctions.
This will certainly not be Europe’s or Ukraine’s preferred ending to the war. Their demands for security for Ukraine will have to be met, or they will almost certainly refuse to drop their own sanctions on Russia.
But the fact is that Ukraine could never hope to defeat its much larger opponent, even when supplied with the West’s most advanced military technology, communications, and billions in finance. The proof is on the battlefield.
Russia's strategy has always been to use its larger size to its advantage, as it did against Napoleon and the Nazi armies. Long battlelines severely disadvantage smaller countries, thinning out their defense against a widening battlefield and much larger opponent.
The current battleline is estimated to be some 1,250 miles, the approximate distance between San Francisco and Indianapolis.
As the lines grow, the strategy is aimed at gradually moving to rout an opponent that can no longer defend itself. In that sense, time is on the Russian side.
Our guess is that Trump/Putin negotiated end to the war will likely have to be accepted by the West, however reluctantly, because the benefits to the world, in terms of loss of life, treasure, and further destruction far outweigh its continuation.
By Robert Berke for Oilprice.com
Ukraine Cease-Fire Efforts Stumble Amid Competing Priorities
- A deal to halt fighting between Ukraine and Russia is struggling due to conflicting
- priorities of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, with ongoing attacks and air strikes continuing in the region.
- Russia's conditions for the Black Sea deal, including lifting sanctions on Russian banks and ships, have complicated negotiations and led to tension with the US.
- The US is seeking access to Ukraine's mineral resources as part of its military aid, creating further friction and concerns about Ukraine's economic future.
One week after the Kremlin and the White House announced a deal that aimed to halt fighting between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea region and pave the way for a wider cease-fire, the effort is stumbling.
In fact, the wider attempt to pause Europe's largest land war since World War II is also under severe strain, pulled in three different directions by three different presidents with three competing priorities.
On the battlefield and across Ukraine, meanwhile, fighting and air attacks continue, as Russia pounded Ukraine's second-largest city for a second day with drones and ballistic missiles on March 31. Ukrainian forces have reportedly made another cross-border raid into Russia's Belgorod region in what could be a repeat of last summer's invasion of the Kursk region.
"Talks between Moscow and Washington in Saudi Arabia not only did not result in any breakthrough; they appear to have been an overall failure," Aleksandra Prokopenko, an analyst with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said in an analysis. "The agreements do not look like a real prologue to peace."
"Russia's strategy is to stall the negotiations as long as possible to achieve its maximalist goals by nonmilitary means," said Maria Shagina, a sanctions expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think-tank.
"At the same time, Moscow is wary of testing [US President Donald] Trump's patience," she told RFE/RL. "The ball is really in Trump's court on whether to believe that Russia is negotiating in good faith or ramp up pressure to force it to the negotiating table."
Here's where things stand at the negotiating table and on the front lines.
Who Agreed On What And When?
On March 11, Ukraine and the United States announced a breakthrough agreement paving the way for a 30-day cease-fire contingent on Russia's signing on. A major foreign policy priority for Trump, it was the first concrete proposal on the negotiating table since the early weeks after Russia's all-out assault on Ukraine in February 2022.
Putin balked, saying he agreed in principle but there were "nuances" that would have to be addressed and attaching conditions including a halt to Western supplies of weapons to Kyiv.
A week after the US-Ukrainian agreement on a full cease-fire, the White House and the Kremlin announced a narrower deal that focused on limiting attacks on Russia's and Ukraine's energy infrastructure: power plants, transmission lines, and substations.
Taking energy facilities off targeting lists has a key priority for Kyiv, which has struggled to keep the lights -- and heating -- on as Russia has pummeled its energy targets since at least November 2022. For its part, Ukraine has ramped up its homegrown industry of drones, and even cruise missiles, to target Russia's oil refineries and pipelines, not to mention military facilities.
That's unnerved Moscow, though has yet to cause major disruptions or price spikes.
Despite the deal, Kyiv and Moscow continued to batter one another. It later turned out that Russian drones were in fact in the air, en route to Ukrainian targets, even as Trump and Putin were speaking on the phone.
Moscow has insisted it has upheld the energy cease-fire, something Ukrainian officials say is nonsense.
On March 25, after separate US talks with Ukraine and Russia in Saudi Arabia, the White House announced agreements with Kyiv and Moscow to limit military action on the Black Sea. If implemented, that would give Ukraine more latitude to export its grain and agriculture products to the global markets and bring in desperately needed hard currency.
The White House agreed to help Russia restore access to the global market for agricultural products and fertilizers, reduce the cost of insurance for maritime transportation, and expand access to ports, as well as to payment systems for necessary transactions.
Sounds Good. What's The Catch?
One of the biggest land mines, however, was the conditions that the Kremlin included in its announcement released shortly after the White House statements.
Those conditions included the demand that the West lift sanctions on Russian banks that have been involved in trading agriculture products, as well as on Russian ships. Rosselkhozbank, a major state-owned lender for Russian agrobusiness, was mentioned specifically, including connecting it and other Russian entities to the global SWIFT system of bank transfers.
For experts who have followed the negotiations, that appeared to be either a "poison pill" or even a Kremlin test of the White House's negotiating tactics.
That's for several reasons: Reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to the global SWIFT system requires European consent; the United States can't do it on its own.
Lifting Western sanctions on agricultural product companies, and related things like cargo ships and ports, would allow Moscow to not only tap another revenue stream, it would also represent a small step toward unwinding the larger sanctions regime.
So The Kremlin Is Playing Smart, Then?
If the Kremlin's intention is indeed to test the White House, then judging by Trump's comments on March 30, it's struck a chord. And not in a good way.
"If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault -- which it might not be -- but if I think it was Russia's fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia," Trump told NBC News.
Secondary tariffs are essentially restrictions or levies on other countries that purchase oil from Russia. That would be a significant escalation of the Western sanctions regime on Russia, which derives the bulk of its hard currency imports from oil and gas sold on global markets to places like India and China.
Trump also responded to Putin's comments on March 28 calling for a "transitional administration" in Ukraine. Those remarks echoed previous ones from Putin and other Kremlin officials who have suggested Zelenskyy was not a legitimate leader because Ukraine had been unable to hold a new presidential election due to wartime martial law.
Trump said he was "very angry, pissed off" at Putin for questioning Zelenskyy's credibility, and he said negotiations were "not going in the right location."
Those were some of the most critical comments Trump has had for Putin. In the past, he has suggested Russia was not to blame for instigating the war, and accused Zelenskyy of being a "dictator."
"The Kremlin is smart enough to give an impression that it's making concessions without actually conceding anything," Shagina told RFE/RL. "Moscow's priority is to secure sanctions relief ahead of the negotiations and to test how far the US can pressure the EU and UK to tag along. A significant divergence of the transatlantic sanctions regime is very likely, which will drastically undermine the effectiveness of sanctions."
"This is both an attempt to put pressure on the Kremlin and also is an obvious expression of dissatisfaction," Ukrainian political analyst Oleksandra Filippenko told Current Time. "This is an indication of how Donald Trump perceives Vladimir Putin. He does not perceive Vladimir Putin as an equal partner or negotiator, or perhaps as a rival in negotiations. Donald Trump believes that he should really solve all major international issues and issues related to negotiations."
What About Ukraine's Minerals?
There's another variable at work.
Ukraine's successes in its defense against the Russian invasion have been powered overwhelming by US weaponry.
But back in February, the Trump administration indicated it would partly condition future US military aid on a deal to give US companies access to Ukraine's mineral resources: so-called rare earth minerals, as well as other valuable resources like lithium, titanium, uranium, and even oil and gas.
The White House's initial proposal landed with a thud in Kyiv, where Ukrainian officials saw it as a lopsided deal that would hobble Ukraine's future economic development.
An updated proposal seen by Bloomberg News would give the United States "right of first offer" on investments in all infrastructure and natural resources projects: "an unprecedented expansion of US economic influence in Europe's largest country by area just at the time when it's attempting to align with the EU."
In comments to reporters later on March 30, Trump charged that Zelenskyy was looking to back out of the minerals deal and warned that he would face "big, big problems" if he did.
"I don't think [Trump] is going to impose sanctions," Serhiy Harmash, a former Ukrainian negotiator, told Current Time. "Trump is more interested in a partnership with Russia than with Ukraine. Ukraine is not a player for Trump. He believes Ukraine can be dictated to and controlled."
By RFE/RL
Bloomberg News | April 1, 2025 |
Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.
Ukraine’s top diplomat said officials are pressing ahead with the US toward an “acceptable” economic accord hours after President Donald Trump accused Kyiv of trying to renegotiate the deal.
Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukrainian officials were poring over the latest draft of an infrastructure and natural resources deal sent by the US last week as talks with negotiators in Washington moved ahead. Kyiv is prepared to endorse an agreement that provides security with a significant US business presence in Ukraine, the cabinet minister said.
“The process will continue,” Sybiha told reporters in Kyiv Tuesday as he met with his counterpart from Lithuania. “We will be working with our American colleagues in order to achieve a text that would be mutually acceptable.”
Days after Trump expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US leader on Monday turned his ire back to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, blaming the Ukrainian president for seeking new terms for the accord.
The comments amount to geopolitical whiplash during a week in which Trump plans to unleash global tariffs — and exposes impatience in the White House with efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump on Monday signaled he thought Putin will “follow through” on a ceasefire, while reinforcing his anger at Zelenskiy over what he called new conditions from Kyiv for the pending accord.
“I heard that they’re now saying, well, I’ll only do that deal if we get into NATO or something to that effect,” Trump said in the Oval Office.
While Zelenskiy has repeatedly said joining NATO would be the preferred and the most efficient option to ensure peace and security, he has expressed openness to other security guarantees.
Fears in Kyiv
Instead, the latest draft of the resources agreement — which would grant the US control over all major future infrastructure and mineral investments in the war-battered country — raised concerns in Kyiv that a deal could undermine its bid to join the European Union, Bloomberg News reported last week. Officials also feared that it could require Ukraine to repay all US military and economic support since the start of the war.
Still, Sybiha said that an agreement could pave the way for the presence of “powerful, large American business,” which on its own would provide a security guarantee.
“This is always important — strengthening the presence of American business,” the minister said.
Ukrainian officials are scrutinizing the text and may ask for changes, a person familiar with the talks said late last week. Ukrainian and US negotiators held a video call on Friday, which included legal experts, to seek clarification about the nearly 60-page draft agreement, according to the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity as the talks are private.
As Trump rushes toward securing a ceasefire between the warring parties in time to mark his 100 days in power, even the limited truce on energy strikes mediated by American negotiators last month isn’t holding. Both sides trade accusations of violating it.
A fresh Russian strike damaged an energy facility in the southern region of Kherson early Tuesday, leaving 45,000 civilians without electricity, Sybiha said. The attack followed similar strikes against the regions of Kharkiv and Poltava, according to the minister.
A Ukrainian drone strike meanwhile left some 1,200 people without electricity in Russia’s Belgorod region, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said on Telegram on Tuesday.
(By Olesia Safronova and Aliaksandr Kudrytski)
By Guy Faulconbridge and Lidia Kelly
The head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund Kirill Dmitriev speaks to members of the delegation and journalists after the U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo
Summary
Russia and US discussing rare earths, Putin envoy
Some companies have expressed an interest, envoy says
Putin offered to work with the United States on rare earths
Trump: Zelenskiy wants to back out of minerals deal
MOSCOW, March 31 (Reuters) - Russia and the United States have started talks on joint rare earth metals and other projects in Russia, and some companies have already expressed an interest in them, President Vladimir Putin's investment envoy said in remarks published on Monday.
Amid efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine, minerals cooperation has been floated by both Kyiv and Moscow, though Trump said on Sunday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wants to back out of a proposed deal.
Putin in February suggested that the United States might be interested in exploring joint exploration for rare earth metals deposits in Russia, which has the world's fifth-largest reserves of the metals used in lasers and military equipment.
Kirill Dmitriev, Kremlin special envoy on international economic and investment cooperation, told the Izvestia newspaper in remarks published on Monday that talks had already begun.
"Rare earth metals are an important area for cooperation, and, of course, we have begun discussions on various rare earth metals and (other) projects in Russia," said Kirill Dmitriev, who is also the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund.
Trump said on Sunday he was "pissed off" at Putin and will impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump told NBC News he was very angry after Putin last week criticised the credibility of Zelenskiy's leadership, the television network reported. Trump later reiterated to reporters he was disappointed with Putin but added: "I think we are making progress, step by step."
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China's control of 95% of global production and supplies of rare earth metals, crucial for industries such as defence and consumer electronics, has focused the rest of the world on trying to develop their own supplies.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates Russia's reserves of rare earth metals at 3.8 million metric tons but Moscow has far higher estimates.
According to the Natural Resources Ministry, Russia has reserves of 15 rare earth metals totalling 28.7 million tons as of January 1, 2023 and that 3.8 million tons is the amount of reserves under development or ready for development.
Izvestia reported the cooperation may be further discussed at the next round of Russia-U.S. talks that may take place in mid-April in Saudi Arabia.
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