Who is Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu who won big in Turkey local elections?
Opposition party CHP deals surprise blows to Erdogan as hopes raised for Imamoglu presidency in 2028.
Published On 1 Apr 20241 Apr 2024
The opposition in Turkey has claimed a big victory over President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in local elections with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) claiming wins in the major cities of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.
In the final count after Sunday’s voting, the CHP won 37.8 percent of the ballots, followed by the AK Party with just under 35.5 percent, according to the Daily Sabah newspaper.
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Istanbul’s CHP mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, held the city, defeating AK Party candidate and former Environment and Urbanisation Minister Murat Kurum with just more than 51 percent of the vote. Erdogan, 70, was born and raised in Istanbul and served as its mayor in the 1990s, so the defeat was seen as a personal blow.
Who is Ekrem Imamoglu?
Imamoglu, 53, was elected mayor of Istanbul – Turkey’s economic hub and largest city with 16 million people – in 2019, ending 25 years of rule by the AK Party and its conservative predecessors.
Imamoglu’s career mirrors Erdogan’s: Both began their political careers in Istanbul in the 1990s and had them obstructed by legal issues.
Imamoglu is from the secularist CHP, joining in 2008 and becoming mayor of Istanbul’s Beylikduzu district 10 years ago.
He studied business administration at Istanbul University, graduating in 1994, the year Erdogan became mayor, before going into his family’s construction business.
Erdogan entered politics with the Islamist Welfare Party and in 2001 cofounded the AK Party, on whose ticket he became prime minister at the end of 2002.
In 2022, Imamoglu was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison and banned from politics on charges of insulting Turkey’s Supreme Election Council. He has appealed the case, but the appeals court has yet to rule.
The charges stem from Imamoglu’s first mayoral win. The AK Party complained of “irregularities”, which forced a rerun of the election. Imamoglu, who won a second time, described the cancellation of the first round as “foolishness”.
The mayor denied insulting electoral council members with the comment, saying he was responding to Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, who called Imamoglu “a fool” and accused him of criticising Turkey.
Imamoglu was seen as a strong potential challenger against Erdogan in the 2023 presidential race, but he did not run, and Erdogan won against CHP rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, winning 52 percent of the vote.
Where has CHP declared wins?
The CHP’s candidates won in 35 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, including Antalya, Denizli and Izmir.
Besides Imamoglu declaring victory in Istanbul, CHP Mayor Mansur Yavas also held on to the capital, Ankara, defeating his challenger, veteran politician Turgut Altinok, with just more than 60 percent of the vote.
Are the results a surprise?
In the May 2023 presidential election, the opposition strove to unseat Erdogan and his AK Party. The CHP had hoped to have a chance against Erdogan after domestic economic turmoil and the fallout from the devastating February 2023 earthquakes in southern Turkey.
The efforts failed as Erdogan won another five-year presidential term and an AK Party-led coalition won a majority in parliament, dealing a blow to the CHP and the opposition.
After last year’s elections, the nationalist IYI, or Good, Party split from the CHP, and a Kurdish-focused party, now renamed the DEM Party, fielded its own candidates against the CHP in the local elections, which it did not do in 2019.
Opinion polls before Sunday’s voting had indicated that the AK Party would make a strong showing, but that was not the case.
How did the opposition hold on to its advantage?
There has been rising discontent in Turkey due to its economic decline, which resulted in nearly 70 percent inflation and a rising cost of living.
Analysts speculated that the AK Party did worse than predicted due to the economy and, in Istanbul, Imamoglu’s appeal beyond the CHP’s secular base.
“The economy is probably the number one issue in these elections,” said Vehbi Baysan, assistant professor at Ibn Haldun University in Istanbul.
What was the reaction?
Opposition supporters lit torches and waved flags in Istanbul, celebrating the wins.
A voter from Istanbul told Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu: “We love our mayor very much. He’s fair and treats everyone equally. He prevented corruption. He spends Istanbul’s money on Istanbul.”
But supporters of the AK candidate were unhappy, saying Kurum had stood by them.
How did Erdogan react?
Erdogan delivered a speech from the balcony of the presidential palace, saying his party had suffered “a loss of altitude” across Turkey and the people had delivered a “message”.
“Unfortunately, nine months after our victory in the May 28 elections, we could not get the result we wanted in the local election test,” Erdogan added. “We will correct our mistakes and redress our shortcomings.”
He promised to press ahead with an economic programme introduced last year aiming to combat inflation.
What will happen next?
Some observers predicted these local elections will give Imamoglu the support he needs to follow in Erdogan’s footsteps, rising from Istanbul’s mayor to Turkey’s president in the 2028 race.
Erdogan has indicated that he will not run for a fourth term in 2028, nor is he eligible to run, according to the current constitution.
However, Ahmet Kasim Han, political science professor at Istanbul’s Beykoz University, said before the local elections: “If Murad Kurum loses and Ekrem Imamoglu wins, that is going to force Erdogan to probably run himself in 2028, rather than going through the hassle of picking an alternative.”
Erdogan can run for another term if parliament calls for snap elections or if a change in the constitution is passed, Mehmet Celik, editorial coordinator at Daily Sabah, explained in an episode of Al Jazeera’s Inside Story on Sunday.
Han postulated that hypothetical snap elections would take place “very close to 2028”.
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES
Erdogan's party suffered a major defeat. How did it happen?
01.04.2024 The results of the municipal elections in Turkey
On March 31, municipal elections were held in Turkey. Traditionally, during the pre-election period, more attention was paid to economic, ideological, and political issues rather than municipal and city management. The main focus was on the elections in Istanbul and Ankara municipalities, which Erdogan lost in 2019. He was determined to regain control of these cities for his party.
However, the election results turned out to be unexpected for everyone, and the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won for the first time since 1977, becoming the leading party in Turkey. At the same time, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered its first defeat since its inception
Winning with 37.76% of the votes nationwide, the CHP emerged victorious in major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya, Eskisehir, and Adana. Opposition members from the CHP will also lead municipalities in conservative cities like Bursa, Balikesir, Kastamonu, Giresun, and even in Adiyaman, where the AKP had previously won in past elections.
How did this happen?
Everyone is wondering: how did Erdogan suffer the biggest defeat in his political career just 10 months after triumphing in the presidential elections?
One of the key factors behind this election outcome, according to experts, is the Party of the New Prosperity (YRP), which has similar roots to Erdogan’s party. YRP supported the current president in the previous elections.
The Party of the New Prosperity was founded and is led by Fatih Erbakan, the son of Necmettin Erbakan, Erdogan’s political mentor. In yesterday’s elections, YRP received 6.2% of the votes, making it the third party in Turkey.
YRP accuses the AKP of deviating from the principles declared at the establishment of this party and of capitulating to neoliberal and globalist policies.
Shortly before the elections, journalist Metin Cihan published an article exposing the trade cooperation between Turkey and Israel, presenting data on dozens of ships that depart daily from Turkish ports to Israel, which caused a major resonance in society.
Erbakan accused Erdogan of being ineffective in standing up to Israel, saying he forgot about the Palestinians. Additionally, YRP turned the issues of addressing pensioner problems, considered the most conservative part of the electorate, into the main focus of their pre-election campaign, which predetermined the unexpected success of the nascent party and contributed to the defeat of the AKP.
The economic policy as the reason for the failure
Another significant reason for the ruling party’s loss is considered to be the AKP’s economic policy.
This thesis is somewhat controversial because the economic situation in Turkey before the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections was no better than it is now, but Erdogan managed to maintain his advantage.
Analysts point out that after the presidential elections, Turkish authorities decided, at the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund, to return to a neoliberal, orthodox economic policy.
After Mehmet Şimşek was appointed as the Minister of Economy in the new AKP cabinet, anti-crisis policies similar to those of the IMF were introduced, and the ruling party was forced to resort to austerity measures again.
One of the first to notice these factors was economist and academic Ilhan Doguş. After yesterday’s elections, he wrote on social media about how last year the opposition lost due to support for economic policies, and this year, for the same reason, the AKP lost.
Economics professor Tansel Güçlü described the situation as follows: “Politicians who support economic policies opposed by orthodox economists and the broader working class face undesirable outcomes in elections. In the future, they should act taking these circumstances into account.”
According to economist Ali Alper Alemdar, the AKP lost due to the recommendations of orthodox economists: “I hope that in the future, the ruling party will continue to listen to these specialists.”
For a long time, Erdogan pursued an economic policy that was heavily criticized worldwide. He kept the interest rate low, turned a blind eye to the rise in the value of the US dollar, and printed money without considering the subsequent inflation.
As a result, the situation worsened further, the middle class faced economic difficulties, but at the same time, pensions in the country increased, and unemployment remained low.
However, starting in the summer of 2023, when the government began implementing orthodox economic policies, the interest rate significantly increased, money was printed in smaller quantities, and the growth of pensions and civil servant salaries slowed down compared to previous rates.
Economists believe that this factor was the reason for the AKP’s defeat.
Nationalists’ defeat
The most unexpected outcome of the municipal elections was the sharp decline in votes for the far-right forces, which were believed to be on the rise.
İYİ Parti (Good Party) and Zafer Partisi (Victory Party), which adhere to nationalist and anti-immigration ideas, suffered significant losses in votes. İYİ Parti received 3.7% of the votes compared to 9% in the previous elections. Zafer Partisi settled for only 1.74%.
According to journalist Ruşen Çakır, the myth of the rise of nationalist forces has been debunked. Together, they couldn’t even secure 10% of all votes.
However, political analyst Yaşar Altundag disagrees with this view. He believes it is wrong to think that nationalist ideas have weakened, and such thoughts could harm the opposition. Nationalists have always lost in municipal elections but have great potential in “setting boundaries” between nationalism and non-nationalism, as well as in creating an image of the enemy.
Thus, the main figures of the opposition – Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş – retained their positions in Istanbul and Ankara, respectively. İmamoğlu outpaced his opponent from the ruling party by 12%, and Yavaş by 29%.
After these elections, the psychological advantage in the political struggle has completely shifted to the side of the opposition. Now everyone is wondering whether the CHP can maintain this advantage until the next elections and what policies İmamoğlu and Yavaş, whose authority is already comparable to that of Erdoğan himself, will pursue in the coming years.
Turkish President Erdogan vows to make amends after humbling local election loss
Tayyip Erdogan greets his supporters as he leaves a polling station during the local elections in Istanbul on Sunday. AFP
President Tayyip Erdogan vowed on Monday to correct any mistakes that led to his party's defeat in Turkey's local elections where the opposition capitalised on economic woes and alienated Islamist voters, casting uncertainty over his reform plans.
Sunday's vote marked Erdogan and his AK Party's (AKP) worst defeat in more than 20 years in power, revitalising the opposition party and strengthening Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's standing as the president's main rival.
Redrawing a political map long dominated by the AKP, the Republican People's Party (CHP) won the popular vote for the first time in decades and swept most of the main cities, penetrating far into conservative central Turkey.
Analysts said voters lost patience with both a cost-of-living crisis driven by near 70% inflation and Erdogan's divisive political style.
The result bruised his hopes of adopting a new constitution, which could potentially extend his rule beyond 2028 when his term ends, they said. Though AKP and its allies have a majority in parliament, Erdogan would need broader support or a successful referendum for a new constitution.
Erdogan delivered a sombre and introspective speech in the early hours of Monday. "This is not an end for us, but actually a turning point," he said, acknowledging a "loss of altitude" for the AKP.
"If we made a mistake, we will fix it," he told crowds gathered at AKP headquarters in Ankara, without indicating what changes he might make within his party or in policy.
In response, Turkish stocks rose and the lira — which has shed more than 80% of its value in five years — touched another record low versus the dollar on a holiday for many world financial markets.
INFLATION BITES
Erdogan made an abrupt U-turn in economic policy after his triumph in a national election last year, resulting in aggressive interest rate hikes to rein in inflation expectations that soared under his years-long unorthodox policy stance.
Erdogan has asked for patience with slower economic growth and high borrowing costs, promising reprieve later this year, and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Monday the belt-tightening programme would carry on.
But AKP election candidates were thumped in the cities of Istanbul and Ankara and even in deeply pro-Erdogan strongholds like Bursa, Afyonkarahisar and Adiyaman provinces.
"I think it's mainly about the economy and in particular the inflation...story. I think voters decided to punish Erdogan for these reasons," said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of political risk consultancy Teneo.
He said AKP lost control of industrial regions where lots of workers are on a minimum wage, which has trailed inflation despite big rises.
AKP overall "suffered due to over-confidence hubris," Piccoli said, pointing to the success of the Islamist New Welfare Party, which emerged as the third biggest party in a big surprise, with 6.2% support.
New Welfare benefited by taking an even more hardline stance than Erdogan against Israel over the Gaza conflict, which helped draw pious voters away from the Islamist-rooted AKP, analysts said.
'SICK OF FIGHTING AND ARGUING'
The CHP — the party of modern Turkey's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk — won near 38% support nationwide, more than two points ahead of the AKP and shattering the ceiling of 25% support it has had this century.
Opposition Cumhuriyet newspaper called it "A historic victory," that taught Erdogan a lesson.
The CHP's Imamoglu won 51% support in Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, 11 percentage points ahead of his AKP challenger despite polls pointing to a close race.
He won despite the collapse of an opposition alliance after last year's election defeats, reaching out to Kurds and others typically outside of the secularist CHP base.
"The period of one-person rule has ended as of today," Imamoglu, 53, told thousands of jubilant supporters on Sunday evening.
The former businessman, who entered politics in 2008, had defeated Erdogan's candidate in the local election five years ago, ending 25 years of rule in the city by AKP and its Islamist predecessors. He is now touted as a presidential challenger.
"We didn't vote for (AKP) obviously due to the economic conditions and promises that were not kept," said accountant Onur Hizmetci, 42, adding he had voted AKP the last 15 years.
"All parties need to move away from polarisation and do something for our country with unity," he said in a public square on the Asian side of Istanbul. "People are sick of fighting and arguing."
Reuters
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