President Lee’s sudden announcement of a visit to Japan from January 13 signals a renewed effort by Seoul and Tokyo to stabilise a relationship that has oscillated between pragmatic cooperation and deep mistrust. While officially framed as a routine diplomatic engagement, the timing – on the back of a recent visit to China by Lee - suggests a broader regional recalibration as both governments, and China, as Asia confronts mounting regional pressures.
At the top of the agenda is likely to be security. North Korea’s advancing missile capabilities and its growing alignment with Russia have sharpened concerns in both capitals after recent test-firing episodes by the North. Seoul and Tokyo may seek to deepen intelligence sharing, expand trilateral coordination with the United States and clarify their respective roles in missile defence. Any discussion of joint exercises or contingency planning would underscore a shared recognition that bilateral frictions can no longer override hard security realities.
Economic resilience is also expected to feature prominently. Japan and South Korea remain deeply intertwined in high-tech supply chains, particularly in semiconductors, batteries and advanced materials. Officials could thus explore mechanisms to insulate these sectors from geopolitical shocks depending on the length of the visit and include tighter export coordination and early-warning systems for supply disruptions. There may also be quiet efforts to prevent a repeat of past trade disputes that spilled into diplomatic crises.
History, however, will hover over the talks whether addressed directly or not. President Lee may look to build on recent attempts to manage disputes over wartime labour and historical memory without allowing them to dominate the relationship. Tokyo, for its part, is likely to test whether Seoul is prepared to institutionalise dialogue rather than rely on ad hoc political compromises.
Another crucial issue both sides may work on is China’s economic slowdown and its growing assertiveness, weighing how to balance economic dependence with strategic caution. However, with Lee’s visit to Japan coming just days after a visit to Beijing - currently at odds with Tokyo over Taiwan and potential Japanese retaliation should China move against the island - if the visit delivers even modest progress, it could mark another step towards a more functional, if still fragile, Japan–South Korea partnership shaped less by the past and more by an increasingly uncertain regional future.
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