In a world where military alliances are rapidly reconfiguring themselves, a recent bne IntelliNews analysis of Chinese naval power reveals an alarming historical reversal: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) dominate a large part of global military ship and submarine production.
This bloc controls 60-70% of the world's warship construction and 55-70% of submarine production, based on the average of the last six years of defence shipbuilding activity.
Who is the most powerful military powers in the world has been flipped. It used to be the wartime allies of the developed nations. Now it is the emergent powers from the Global South.
The CRINK supremacy contrasts sharply with the dynamics of the Second World War (1939-1945), when the Allies – the US, the UK, the USSR, and France – held 75-85% of global naval production, leaving the Axis (Germany, Japan, and Italy) with only 15-25%.
WWII Allied naval superiority
During the conflict, the Allies' naval superiority was overwhelming in almost every category.
In the case of aircraft carriers (including fleet, light, and escort models), for example, Japan, the sole producer for the Axis powers, manufactured only...8 units - 15% of the total global production. The Allies, on the other hand, built 38 (USA 28, UK 10), guaranteeing 85% of production.
In the battleships, the balance tipped slightly towards the Allies: the Axis produced 8 (Germany 2, Japan 3, Italy 3), or 40%, compared to 13 for the Allies (USA 9, UK 4), which represented 60%.
The advantage widened in cruisers, with the Allies manufacturing almost 90% of the total: the Axis manufactured 10 (Germany 3, Japan 5, Italy 2), while the Allies reached 85 (USA 43, UK 37, USSR 5).
Similar pattern among destroyers: Axis with 101 (Germany 18, Japan 63, Italy 20), or 15%, versus 542 for the Allies (USA 349, UK 143, USSR 50), totalling 85%,
Almost all escort ships were Allied: 80 from the Axis (Germany 20, Japan 50, Italy 10), or 5%, against 850 (USA 500, UK 300, USSR 50), which totalled 95%.
The exception was submarines, where Germany gambled everything on U-boats, raising the Axis to 70% of the war effort, contrasting sharply with the pre-war period (1930-1938), when the Allies led with 60%. Axis 180 (Germany 70, Japan 60, Italy 50) vs. Allies 285 (USA 35, UK 60, USSR 150, France 40). Already in the war: Axis 1,446 (Germany 1,162, Japan 177, Italy 107) vs. Allies 570 (USA 232, British 200, USSR 120, France 18) (Source: for Germany 1,162 U-boats; for confirmed totals).
Apart from this German strategy, the Allied naval capacity was 60-70% or more, driven by industrial mobilization.
Allies led in ground power
In terms of ground equipment, Allied superiority was even greater, thanks to the USSR.
Ammunition for tanks and artillery (in millions of units):
- Axis: Germany 300; Japan 100; Italy 50. Total: 450 (30%).
- Western Allies: USA 600; UK 200; France 10. Total: 810 (50%).
- USSR: 500 (20%)
- Axis: Germany 73,484; Japan 13,350; Italy 7,200. Total: 94,034 (10%).
- Western Allies: USA 257,390; UK 226,113; France 1,000. Total: 484,503 (40%).
- USSR: 516,648 (50%) Source: Tanks (including self-propelled):
- Axis: Germany 46,857; Japan 2,515; Italy 2,500. Total: 51,872 (20%).
- Western Allies: USA 88,410; UK 27,896; France 500. Total: 116,806 (40%).
USSR: 105,251 (40%)
Armored vehicles, including APCs and tank destroyers
- Axis: Germany 49,777, Japan 2,200; Italy 1,240. Total: 53,217 (30%).
- Western Allies:USA 20,000 UK 47,420; France 500. Total: 67,920 (40%).
- USSR: 10,000 (30%)
In aircraft production, the Allies manufactured three-quarters of the fighter planes.
Fighter jets (fighters, attackers, bombers, reconnaissance):
- Axis: Germany 94,000; Japan 50,000; Italy 10,000. Total: 154,000 (25%).
- Western Allies: USA 200,000; UK 100,000; France 5,000. Total: 305,000 (50%).
- USSR: 120,000 (25%)
The Allies dominated 75-80% of global production, focusing on volume during the war, while the Axis powers prioritized initial quality and were ultimately outperformed.
Role reversal
This relationship has reversed today. Under Nato, the Allies produce 25-30% of artillery and tank ammunition compared to their enemies –Russia, China and Iran. Adding North Korea, this group accounts for 75-85% of global production.
Although official data is scarce for Iran, China, and North Korea, estimates based on tank and artillery stockpiles can give a good idea about the stockpiles following the communist doctrine:
- Nato: 500 (USA 150,Europe 350, including Czech Republic 30, Spain 40, Romania 50, Nordic countries 30)
- China, Russia and Iran: 1,000 (Russia 600, China 300, Iran 100)
Tanks (including SPGs, units per year):
- Nato :400 (USA 150, Europe 250 including Czech Republic 50, Romania 50, Poland 50)
- China, Russia and Iran: 2,100 (Russia 1,500, China 500, Iran 100)
Armoured vehicles (including APCs and tank destroyers, units per year):
- Nato: 2,000 (USA 800, Europe 1,200 including Czech Republic 500, Slovakia 200, Romania 200, Nordic countries 100)
- China, Russia and Iran: 4,000 (Russia 2,500, China 2000,Iran 200
Combat aircraft (fighters, bombers, attack aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft, units per year):
Missiles:
But nothing is as disparate as missile production. Today, China, Iran and Russia, account for approximately 90% of the production of ballistic and cruise missiles, both short, medium, and long range.
Between them China and Russia dominate the production of the new hypersonic missiles which Putin showcased during his 2018 state of the nation speech.
Russia has deployed multiple hypersonic weapons, including the Avangard glide vehicle and Kinzhal air-launched missile, though some systems have faced mixed performance reports during combat use in Ukraine.
China has tested and partially deployed systems like the DF-17, with ongoing development of more advanced hypersonic glide vehicles.
The US is in a distant third, scrambling to catch up and Europe hasn’t even made a start on rolling out this deadly class of missile. The US is investing heavily in hypersonics, with several programmes in advanced testing phases, though it also has no fully deployed systems as of early 2026.
Currently, no European country has an operational hypersonic missile system in service – not even at the experimental testing stage. Moreover, the vaunted Franco-British Storm Shadow cruise missile and Germany’s powerful Taurus missile have both been out of production for around a decade with new facilities commissioned recently in a bid to catch up.
Explosives:
The production of raw materials for modern explosives in Russia, Iran, and China also accounts for more than 50% of global production.
Drones:
It would be amiss not to mention drone production, where the CRINKS also account for 80-85% of global production, especially after Russia ramped up its production as a result of the Ukraine war.
Western intelligence assessments, Ukrainian military sources, and independent defence analysts, in 2025, Russia likely produced between 1,500 and 2,000 long-range attack drones, primarily Shahed-type loitering munitions (Iranian-designed drones known as Geran-2 in Russian service).Most of these were manufactured at a large facility in Alabuga, Tatarstan, which has become the cornerstone of Russia’s efforts to domestically produce Iranian-designed UAVs under licence or technical assistance agreements with Iran.
A 2023 report by the US Department of Defence estimated that China possessed over 50,000 military UAVs, including large numbers for battlefield ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), and was producing several thousand annually. China produces thousands of military drones annually, across a wide spectrum.
- Reconnaissance drones (e.g. BZK-005, ASN-209)
- Combat drones (UCAVs) (e.g. Wing Loong, CH (Caihong) series, GJ-2)
- Loitering munitions (Chinese equivalents to Shahed/Lancet types, increasingly used in exercises and exports)
- Stealth and high-end systems, such as the Sharp Sword and WZ-8, are in lower-rate production or testing phases.
By contrast, the US is the world's top producer of high-end military drones, especially in the medium- and high-altitude long-endurance (MALE/HALE) categories and stealth systems. However, it doesn’t make the mass produced cheap and simple models that dominate the battlefield in Ukraine. In drone warfare, increasingly it is the ability to manufacture millions of drones a year that is the decisive factor, not the sophistication of the drones.
The EU is badly lagging behind the US and China in drone production due to fragmented national efforts, limited funding, and lack of joint procurement. Belatedly, several major programmes are under development, but as yet the EU has not found an affordable solution to building a “drone wall” on its eastern borders to repel an anticipated attack by hundreds of thousand cheap and effective Russian drones.
Who wins the war?
In short, today’s Western Allies face a very challenging scenario should the CRINK bloc attack Nato. If in WWII they produced 65-75% of the world's weapons, now their enemies are the ones producing them.
After decades of underinvestment, Europe has belatedly launched the €800bn four-year ReArm military modernisation programme. But this has its work cut out for it if Russia is intending to invade Nato in the next five years, as German intelligence services have suggested. In the meantime, defence spending has increased following the Nato summit in the Hague where European Nato members pledged to increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP. But as bne IntelliNews reported, after the US withdrew its military aid to Ukraine and switched to a take-and-pay system, Europe has failed to offset the end of US military aid and weapons deliveries to Ukraine fell last year.
If Western Europe and the USA were the industrialized world during WWII, that has also changed. The CRINK bloc now accounts for more than 40% of the world's industrialization. As bne IntelliNews reported, today Russia and China are the world’s predominant manufacturing powerhouses, while both the US and most of Europe have exported their manufacturing bases and become largely service economies. This lack of a manufacturing base is precisely what US President Donald Trump has been aiming to reverse with his Liberation Day tariffs. Reversing the outflow of manufacturing jobs to the Global South has now become an irreversible process. As the Draghi report pointed out, the only way the West can compete is to stay ahead in technology and labour productivity gains, but that will cost an additional €800bn a year for the foreseeable future.
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