Global coffee supply relief possible in three years, ICO head says

Roberto Samora
Thu, July 3, 2025 


Illustration shows coffee beans


CAMPINAS, Brazil (Reuters) -Global coffee supply could improve in three years as new plantations spurred by record high prices start producing, International Coffee Organization (ICO) Executive Director Vanusia Nogueira said on Thursday at an event in Brazil.

The outlook, however, depends on market conditions remaining favorable enough for farmers to maintain their crops, Nogueira told journalists at an event organized by the Brazilian coffee exporters group Cecafe.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

Global coffee supply is tight as several years of production deficits, impacted by extreme weather in key producing regions, push prices up.

KEY QUOTES

Nogueira said it could take about three years for new coffee plantings to ease supply pressures.

"These are plantations that will start producing in about three years, so then, in three years, we should have some additional supply."

WHAT'S NEXT

Nogueira said the end of successive deficits in the global coffee market could happen in 2026, depending on the weather in the main producing countries, such as Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam.

"I think (the end of the deficits) will depend a lot on this climate issue," said Nogueira, noting that there is still some risk of frost for Brazil's crop in July.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora; Writing by Andre Romani; Editing by Stephen Coates)

Rebuilding global coffee stocks may need at least two good crops, experts say

Roberto Samora
Fri, July 4, 2025 


Roasted coffee beans are pictured in the hopper of a coffee grinder at a branch of Costa Coffee near Manchester

CAMPINAS, Brazil (Reuters) -Rebuilding global coffee stocks may take at least a couple of good crops following successive deficits in the supply-demand balance, coffee industry officials said on Friday during a Coffee Dinner & Summit event in Brazil.


KEY QUOTES

"I do not believe (the industry will be able to) build up stocks from this year to next year. I think we would need at least two good harvests," the commercial superintendent of Brazilian coffee co-operative Cooxupe, Luiz Fernando dos Reis, told Reuters on the sidelines of the event.

"To replenish the stocks we had four years ago, it will take at least two years of very good harvests, if everything goes well," said Louis Dreyfus Company's coffee research director Charles Chiapolino.

"And we know how difficult it is to keep the climate aligned across the world for two years in a row, it's almost impossible," Chiapolino added.

"At the moment, no one can build stocks with demand stable, or growing in some countries," said the chief executive of the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation, German Bahamon.


WHAT'S NEXT

Reis, from Cooxupe - the world's largest coffee cooperative - said that even if Brazil produces a large harvest in the 2026/27 season, the following crop is not expected to be as good since the main coffee variety grown in the country, arabica, alternates in a biennial cycle of high and low output.