Sunday, February 23, 2025

Strategies of the Philippines, China, and the US in the South China Sea in 2025 and Future U.S. Policies on Alliances and the Indo-Pacific Region



2025 FEB24
Expert :
Lee Jaehyon / Center for Regional Studies ; 
Publication and Communications Department

The year 2024 was a violent and dangerous year as far as disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) are concerned. This pattern of disputes will continue in 2025, with potential variations. The Philippines and China will remain constants in the dispute while U.S. involvement in the dispute will have two options under Donald Trump’s leadership: continued engagement or significant disengagement. The U.S. stance on this matter is crucial, as it affects the unfolding of the SCS conflict and the regional balance of power.

Through the U.S.’s commitment to the dispute, one can gauge the second Trump administration’s alliance policy and strategy toward China, which, in turn, sheds some light on how to negotiate with the new U.S. administration and what regional countries should do to maintain peace and stability in the region. Regardless of the direction of U.S. policy toward the disputes in the SCS and the broader region, South Korea must strengthen its role in regional strategic issues and move beyond its image as a passive actor in the regional strategic theater.

To that end, Korea should invest more in maritime security cooperation with ASEAN countries, particularly the Philippines. This should be reflected in the Plan of Action (PoA) for the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) with ASEAN, which will be drafted in 2025. Additionally, strategic cooperation among regional middle powers is recommended to reinforce the regional rules-based order and offset potential U.S. disengagement in the region.


The Philippines: Resistance Will Continue


There is no ground for one to believe that the Philippines will back down in the South China Sea (SCS) in 2025. In 2024, the Philippines took significant initiatives to enhance its maritime capabilities. First, the Marcos administration announced the Re-Horizon 3 initiative, a $35 billion program aimed at improving its defense capabilities. This initiative is the third and final stage of the Philippines’ recent defense modernization program, which began in 2013 and is scheduled to acquire new patrol boats, corvettes, missile systems, and radar technology, and to improve maritime domain awareness (MDA) and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.

Alongside these upgrades, the Philippines, jointly with the United States, launched “Task Force Ayungin” in 2024 to assist ISR activities in the Spratly Islands. Additionally, in April, the Philippines signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) with Japan, and in May, a new security cooperation framework, “S-Quad” consisting of the Philippines, the United States, Japan, and Australia, was launched.

As far as the Philippines is concerned these efforts will continue for several reasons. First, the SCS issue is fundamentally a matter of inalienable national sovereignty for the Philippines. Especially in 2024, China took offensive actions at Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal, preventing the Philippines from exercising its sovereign rights, such as resupplying the BRP Sierra Madre, a ship wrecked near Second Thomas Shoal to indicate Philippine sovereignty.

Second, domestic politics matters. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. tries to fan up his political popularity by taking an uncompromising stance on the SCS dispute. His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte was more reconciliatory towards China in the SCS, and Marcos attempted to differentiate himself from his predecessor and to accumulate support. More importantly, he will face a political showdown in May—the midterm elections. Given the ongoing political dispute between him and Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of former President Duterte, Marcos has a good reason to take a firmer stance on the SCS issue as a political tactic to outmaneuver his vice president.


China: Proactive Assertiveness Will Persist


China has no appetite to temper its stance in the South China Sea (SCS), at least as long as President Xi Jinping is in power. As was the case for the Philippines, the SCS dispute is also a matter of national sovereignty for China. Xi himself has made this clear on multiple occasions. For instance, just before his visit to the UK in 2015, he stated, “The islands and reefs in the South China Sea are Chinese territory since ancient times. They are left to us by our ancestors. The Chinese people will not allow anyone to infringe on China’s sovereignty and related rights and interests in the South China Sea.” Any concession to the Philippines in the SCS under Xi’s leadership would undermine his domestic political base.

Second, China seems to view that its salami-slicing tactic works, and that time is on its side. Despite all the criticisms, there has been virtually no real and physical resistance towards China’s land reclamation activities in the South China Sea for over a decade since 2013. Between 2013 and 2016, China reclaimed 13 km² (3,200 acres) across 20 islands in the Paracels and seven islands in the Spratlys. Three of these—Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef—now host Chinese military facilities, including barracks, runways, aircraft hangars, and weapons systems such as anti-submarine missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and radar systems. Additionally, China has deployed Y-8 maritime patrol aircrafts and Y-9 airborne early warning aircraft to these islands.

Third, and related to the second point, those opposing China in the SCS lack effective ways to respond to its activities. China’s gray zone tactics conducted by maritime militia forces presumably backed by the Chinese Navy and Coast Guard, make it difficult for Southeast Asian navies and coast guards to respond effectively. The huge gap between China’s naval and air force capabilities and those of Southeast Asian nations further discourages successful countermeasures.

While the United States and its allies may extend helping hands to Southeast Asian countries. The US-led Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) is an example, but the operation has no concrete evidence that it contributed to stopping the Chinese activities in the SCS. Furthermore, with the notable exception of the Philippines, other Southeast Asian countries try to keep tensions low-profile or use diplomatic channels such as the Vietnam-China 3+3 meetings to manage disputes.


The United States: At a Crossroads Between Engagement and Disengagement


The South China Sea is an important battleground in the strategic competition between China, a power that wishes to include the SCS under its wing and to expand its influence beyond, and the US, a power that hopes to contain China within the continent. Nevertheless, Trump’s return to the White House introduces a major twist in this broad strategic direction and prevents an easy projection of how the US actions in the SCS dispute will unfold in 2025.

Option 1: Engaging the Philippines and the SCS Disputes

The first option for the second Trump administration is of course extending helping hands to the Philippines and maintaining strong engagement in the region, including the South China Sea (SCS) dispute. Given Trump’s long-held criticism of China, the new U.S. administration may view the issue as a way to put pressure on China. On top of this, there is said to be broad bipartisan consensus on the threats China poses to U.S. global supremacy, a concern that has persisted for quite some time. It was during Trump’s first administration that the Indo-Pacific Strategy was first announced in 2017. Also, there were more frequent Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) conducted under Trump’s first term than during the Biden administration.

If the United States under Trump extends assistance to the Philippines, it will not necessarily be because the country is strategically important or because the administration has a strong commitment to making its presence in the region felt, but rather because it is a good way to counter Chinese influence and its challenge to the US. The first Trump administration announced the “30-Year Shipbuilding Plan,” which earmarked $167 billion to increase the number of navy ships to 355, which had fallen to a lowest of 271 ships in 2015, down from 565 in 1988. Defense Secretary-designate Pete Hegseth confirmed during a congressional hearing that he would reintroduce the plan. Naval assets mean more means for the US to extend assistance to the Philippines to counter China in the SCS.

If the second Trump administration maintains assistance to the Philippines, it will keep the existing schemes and add some additional measures. However, a key question for other regional middle powers, including South Korea, is that a large portion of these additional contributions would have to come from regional countries. South Korea is likely required to continue and expand its recent military and maritime cooperation with the Philippines which will be a financial and strategic burden for the country.

Option 2: America-First Isolationist Posture or Deal-Making

The second option is pulling the US out of the region, including the SCS. Trump may not find the merit of engaging in the SCS dispute and assisting the Philippines in the SCS especially if he perceives that this contribution by the US would not repay for the benefits of his middle-class supporters. This would not necessarily mean a clear-cut, total U.S. retreat from the SCS. The US is likely to issue diplomatic rhetoric regarding the SCS and maintain a certain level of bilateral military and defense cooperation with the Philippines. However, this approach will fall short of the moves made under Biden’s leadership and will fall far short of the Philippines’ expectations. Alternatively, the US could ask the Philippines to pay the bill for extending assistance to the Philippines in the SCS by pulling economic strings attached.

As emphasized numerous times, Trump’s isolationist predisposition earns support from the domestic audience especially the economically downtrodden middle class in the Rust Belt. The U.S. global supremacy and hegemony buttressed by the maintenance of global military alliances and curbing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific theatre is, in Trump’s political calculation, hard to relate to the real benefits of the U.S. middle class. If that is the case, the Trump administration will retreat from the Southeast and SCS theatre as was the case in his first term.

Instead, the region is more likely to face trade and tariff pressures from the US rather than assistance given that some Southeast Asian nations maintain large trade surpluses with the United States.

One remaining option is deal-making. The United States has invested substantial financial and military resources in the Philippines, including $128 million in military infrastructure at U.S. bases in the Philippines (2024); $500 million annually for training, education, and asset transfer programs; The cost of bilateral military exercises such as Balikatan, Sama Sama, and Kamandag, which mobilized 15,000 U.S. troops in 2024.

Additionally, the Philippines has increased its trade surplus with the United States over the past 10 years, now reaching $10 billion. In 2021, there were more than 2 million overseas Filipino workers in the US, sending $37.2 billion back home which accounts for 2% of the Philippines’ GDP. All these can be Trump’s leverage in deal-making against the Philippines.


Options for South Korea: Turning Threats into Opportunities with Proactive Initiatives


The dispute and tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) will persist in 2025. Both the Philippines and China have no reason to change their course. The big question mark is on the US’s policy. If the Trump administration views U.S. engagement in the dispute as an effective way to curb China, then the United States will likely maintain its current posture or even increase its engagement. If Trump views U.S. engagement in the dispute does not bring real (domestic) political benefits to him, then the US is likely to scale down its assistance to the Philippines or produce a bill to offset the U.S. burden to the Philippines. In the former case, the U.S. commitment to the region, its promises to regional allies, and its Indo-Pacific strategy will continue. In the latter case, there will be a substantial shift in U.S. commitments to regional allies and its Indo-Pacific strategy which in turn have fundamental impacts on regional rules-based order and the balance of power.

In both cases, the burden on regional countries, including South Korea, will increase. If the United States maintains its commitments to the Philippines in confronting China, regional middle powers will be asked or requested to make more contributions. If the United States retreats from the region and from the SCS dispute, regional middle powers countries may need to fill the vacuum left behind by the US to sustain the region’s peace and stability, particularly in assisting the Philippines against China. Already, some regional middle powers, such as Japan and Australia, have expressed the view that regional middle powers need to consolidate strategic cooperation to support regional order should the United States pull back.

South Korea needs to double down its efforts to build strategic cooperation on the one hand with regional middle powers and on the other hand with Southeast Asian countries where South Korea has lots of economic and sociocultural stakes. South Korea should be more proactive in engaging with regional middle powers in the discussion of the future of the regional order. In 2025, South Korea and ASEAN are set to draft the Plan of Action (PoA) for the ASEAN-Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This document must include strong emphasis and concrete initiatives for maritime security cooperation between South Korea and ASEAN.

Finally, one big concern remains when South Korea upgrades such strategic commitment¾China. The first step should be improving bilateral relations with China, including expanding and consolidating communication channels. No mutual understanding can be reached without bilateral dialogue. In the long term, South Korea must work to change China’s perception. Korea’s new activism in the regional security issues is not to target a certain country, but to make a due contribution of Korea as a middle power for peace and stability including protecting individual country’s national sovereignty, which corresponds to China’s Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, as outlined in the concept of a “Community of Common Destiny for Mankind.” Avoiding China’s or any other major powers’ backlash is not a solution. South Korea has its own strategic position, and it must make it clear that this apply equally to all countries


This article is an English Summary of Asan Issue Brief (2025-06).
(‘2025년 필리핀, 중국, 미국의 남중국해 분쟁 전략과 미국의 동맹 및 지역 정책의 향배’, https://www.asaninst.org/?p=98065)


About Experts

Lee Jaehyon
Center for Regional Studies ; Publication and Communications Department

Dr. LEE Jaehyon is a principal fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. He is a member of the advisory group for the Korean Coast Guard. Dr Lee is also a Vice President of the Korean Association of Southeast Asian Studies. Dr Lee’s research focuses on ASEAN, Southeast Asian politics, regionalism, and non-traditional and human security issues. Recently, he has been expanding research to include Indo-Pacific and superpower rivalry in the region. His publications include “South Korea and the South China Sea: A Domestic and International Balancing Act” (2016), “What Asia Wants from the US: Voices from the Region” (2018), “Southeast Asian Perspectives of the United States and China: A SWOT Analysis” (2022). He translated “The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia” by Kurt Campbell into Korean. Dr Lee received a B.A. and M.A. from Yonsei University and his PhD in politics from Murdoch University, Australia.

THE ASAN INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES
Big tech, banking, energy: who are the biggest spenders on EU lobbying?


Copyright AP Photo

By Paula Soler
Published on 24/02/2025


The world’s largest companies and trade associations from the big tech, banking, energy, and chemicals/agri sectors have significantly increased their EU lobbying budgets in recent years.

The 162 biggest corporations and trade associations collectively spent €343 million on lobbying EU legislators and officials over the past year, according to a new analysis.

Between February 2024 and February 2025, annual lobbying expenditures rose by 13%, and by nearly a third since 2020, according to a report from non-profit groups Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO) and LobbyControl.

However, these estimates remain conservative, as only entities spending over one million euros are required to disclose their lobbying budgets in the EU’s transparency register.

Among the highest-declaring corporates and associations are major big tech players like Meta and Microsoft, with lobbying budgets of €9 million and €7 million respectively, as well as the European Banking Federation, energy firm Shell, FuelsEurope, Bayer, Novartis, BusinessEurope, and the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA).

With the Artificial Intelligence Act having entered into force last year, and the EU Commission planning to introduce the Clean Industrial Deal, an Action Plan on Affordable Energy, a Critical Medicines Act, and a Savings and Investments Union in 2025, all alongside an ongoing drive to slash red tape, the surge in lobbying budgets looks set to continue.

“We've seen a trend of increasing big tech lobbying for years, but the rise in spending by polluting industries such as energy and agri-chemicals over the past five years (44% and 31% respectively) clearly reflects the intense lobbying around the Green Deal,” CEO’s Vicky Cann told Euronews.

“With the Commission set to deliver a corporate-friendly Clean Industrial Deal later this week—alongside a massive deregulation push in the name of 'competitiveness'—it is deeply worrying that this industry lobbying appears to be paying off,” Cann added.


Both LobbyControl and CEO urge EU institutions to rethink lobbying rules and strengthen safeguards against regulatory capture, including the EU Transparency Register, which provides useful information for citizens to track lobbying activity.

“A legally binding lobby register is the only way to impose meaningful sanctions for posting inaccurate data and, in turn, improve the overall quality of the EU lobby register,” the advocacy groups said on Monday, as the platform is due to be reviewed by July 2025.

The analysis also examines the number of meetings between lobbyists and EU officials and the number of badges granting them access to the European Parliament.

The European Chemical Industry Council, BusinessEurope, and Insurance Europe hold the highest number of parliamentary passes, with 323, 295, and 268 respectively – collectively outnumbering MEPs in the parliament.

BusinessEurope also tops the league for the number of declared meetings with EU officials, having logged 467 meetings since 2014, followed by Google (381), Airbus (318), the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (241), and Meta (235).

The findings highlight the need for the EU to expand its existing lobbying restrictions—currently applied to the tobacco industry—to other critical policy areas, such as climate and environmental regulation, the advocacy groups argue.

“As a first step, the Commission should stop granting privileged access to industry lobbyists and ensure that civil society and community voices are heard loud and clear,” the transparency watchdogs emphasized.

Last month, the Commission introduced a major change to lobbying transparency by publishing minutes of meetings between lobbyists and senior officials, extending the disclosure requirement from 400 top officials to around 1,500.

The move got a mixed reaction, but the real impact will depend on how much information is actually disclosed.

‘Now or never moment’: Is it all economic doom and gloom for Europe in 2025?


Copyright Euronews
By Hannah Brown & Angela Barnes
Published on 24/02/2025 s

“If you don't move forward, you fall off the bike,” is the warning from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s chief economist, Beata Javorcik.

Will the second Trump presidential term be the key influence on the global economy of 2025?

According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), it’s one of many causes for concern.

“The unwinding of globalisation is going to have negative consequences for the global economy,” Beata Javorcik, chief economist at EBRD, told Angela Barnes in the latest episode of The Big Question.
 
Fragmentation of the global economy

Beata’s two key concerns for 2025 are the impact of ongoing conflict and fragmentation of the global economy. She cited Brexit, the US-China trade war and Russian sanctions as long-term issues continue to pose economic risks.

For Europe to prosper, she explained, the bloc needed to heed the warnings set out in Mario Draghi’s 2024 The Future of European Competitiveness report.

“Europe will not be able to maintain its standards of living if it continues on its current path.

“But paradoxically, the shocks that Europe may experience in 2025 may focus minds and lead to action. It may be a now or never moment for Europe,” Beata added.

While Europe is currently awaiting further news on the proposed US trade tariffs, it’s not the only American move set to cause shock waves across the globe.

“Should the US Federal Reserve have to keep interest rates high for longer, this will translate into higher borrowing costs for emerging markets,” Beata explained.

“Many developing countries and emerging economies already are weighed down by a heavy burden of debt accumulated partially during the pandemic times.

“And high interest rates make the cost of servicing the debt quite high. Yes, inflation has helped to lessen the debt burden, but this burden remains quite substantial. And that's a concern.”

How are sanctions affecting the Russian economy?

Although it’s still unclear how new Russia-US relations will unfold over the next four years, Beata expressed that right now, Russia is starting to suffer the consequences of prolonged sanctions.

While some of the loss of trade from Europe has been filled by exports from China and Turkey, it’s not a direct replacement.

“The technological content of those exports is different and you see in the data that foreign affiliates located in those countries choose not to supply the Russian market.”

She also added that, as multinational companies have continued to exit the Russian market, this has led to cessation of new foreign direct investment (FDI).

“That means lower knowledge flows,” Beata explained.

“These are the effects that are not visible immediately. They work slowly, but they certainly are beginning to take a toll on the Russian economy.”

Where in Europe will we see growth in 2025?

Fortunately, 2025 isn’t all doom and gloom with Beata adding that she’s “very optimistic about services in emerging Europe”.

While the increased implementation of AI is set to affect eastern and western European job markets in completely different manners, Beata sees Eastern Europe thriving in the IT services sector.

“The fact that many of them are in Schengen, in the same time zone, have the same data protection regime as the Western European countries bodes well for greater exports of services.

“As companies are considering their carbon footprint, they are discovering that carbon emissions embodied in services they buy constitute a big chunk of that carbon footprint. So the proximity of Eastern European countries makes them more attractive as suppliers of ICT services.”

The Big Questionis a series from Euronews Business where we sit down with industry leaders and experts to discuss some of the most important topics on today’s agenda.

Watch the video for the full conversation with Beata Javorcik from EBRD.
Situationer: Trump’s aid cuts to hurt pro-democracy projects the most

Pakistani institutions, such as ECP, have benefitted from Washington’s support in the past.


DAWN
 February 24, 2025 


• Pakistani institutions, such as ECP, have benefited from Washington’s support in the past

• Waiver granted for oversight of F-16 programme

THE Trump administration has halted nearly all US government funding for programmes that promote democracy and human rights in many countries, a move that experts warn will have significant repercussions for Pakistan’s democratic institutions.

Pakistan has been one of the largest recipients of US development assistance in South Asia. Under these programmes, Washington provided between $13 million and $15 million to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to support free and fair elections.

The funds were allocated for the ‘Strengthening Electoral and Legislative Processes’ project, which ran from 2016 to 2023, under the supervision of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The Trump administration’s broader foreign aid freeze has also impacted humanitarian and development assistance, halting $845m in funding for Pakistani projects and disrupting 11 governance programmes.

In a recent interview with a Fox News affiliate in Detroit, Michigan, former Pakistani president Arif Alvi claimed that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) had given up to $17m to the ECP.

Supporting the Trump administration’s decision to suspend such funding, Dr Alvi asserted that the ECP was responsible for overseeing the 2024 general elections, which he alleged were marred by widespread rigging.

However, according to data from the US government website ForeignAssistance.gov, Pakistan received between $13m and $15m for the seven-year programme, and not specifically for the 2024 elections.

Waivers

However, a number of waivers have been issued as well. Pakistan is receiving two types of waivers under the Trump administration’s new aid policy: emergency humanitarian assistance and security-related funds.

Under a national security waiver, $397 million has been allocated to a US-backed programme monitoring Islamabad’s use of F-16 fighter jets. A congressional aide emphasised that such oversight serves US national security interests, given Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.

Additionally, the US Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation has secured 17 exemptions aimed at curbing the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

Pakistan also qualifies for emergency humanitarian aid, including food and medical assistance for flood-affected areas, though the total amount remains undisclosed.

Consequences for Pakistani institutions

The sudden loss of US funding raises concerns about Pakistan’s ability to maintain electoral transparency and civil society engagement. The cut in democracy assistance means that the ECP will have fewer resources for election monitoring and capacity-building programmes.

Civil society organisations that rely on US support for voter education and legal reform will also struggle to continue operations. Media and watchdog groups that play a crucial role in ensuring fair elections may lose funding, limiting their ability to hold institutions accountable.

A senior official at a leading Pakistani think tank, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the situation as “a major setback for democracy advocates in Pakistan. The US was a key partner in ensuring transparency, and this decision leaves a vacuum that authoritarian forces could exploit”.

Global impact

Pakistan is not the only country affected. The National Endowment for Democracy (NED), which funds civil society groups worldwide, reported that it could no longer access its accounts at the Treasury Department.

The shutdown came after staff from Elon Musk’s newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) took control of financial operations.

Mr Musk has publicly criticised NED, calling it “a scam” and “an evil organisation”, a sentiment echoed by conservative think tanks such as the Centre for Renewing America, which argues that the entity interferes in other countries’ internal affairs.

The cuts are extensive: $486m slashed for global electoral and political process strengthening programmes; $39m removed from fiscal federalism projects in Nepal; and $47 million cut from educational programmes across Asia.

In India, President Trump questioned why the US was funding election-related initiatives in a “wealthy nation”, leading to the cancellation of a $21m grant.

Indian ruling party leader Amit Malviya labelled the now-cancelled funding as “external interference in India’s electoral process”.

Expert warnings

Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute, emphasised the long-term damage these cuts could inflict: “Pakistan is one of the largest recipients of US development assistance in South Asia. These cuts will not only impact electoral support but will also affect civil society organisations that promote democratic governance.”

Congressman Steve Cohen, a Democrat from Memphis, called the aid reductions “a serious blow to the US government’s role in international development, halting critical humanitarian aid, disaster relief and global health initiatives”.

The International Council of Voluntary Agencies (ICVA), a network of groups in about 160 countries, warned that US cuts had taken a devastating toll on crisis-hit populations. In a recent report, ICVA noted that aid groups across the world have been forced to close operations, lay off staff and halt life-saving work.

While the Trump administration argues that these cuts align with an “America First” policy, critics contend that reducing US engagement in democratic development will embolden authoritarian regimes and weaken global governance.

As debates continue in Washington, affected countries must reassess how to sustain democratic initiatives without US support.

Published in Dawn, February 24th, 2025


AU CONTRAIRE

Should We Celebrate the Demise of USAID and NED?

The opening month of the second Donald Trump Presidency has produced a number of consensus-shattering executive actions that have upended the normal functioning in Washington. One of the most surprising is Trump’s attempt to eliminate the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and defund the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).

For decades, USAID and NED have presented themselves as wearing a white hat, helping other countries become more democratic and enlightened. However, much of the real work of the agencies was to foment dissent and at times, overthrow governments that do not comply with Washington’s dictates.

USAID and NED fund media outlets that repeat Washington’s propaganda, support political opposition factions that want to align more with the White House, and bolster NGOs that facilitate regime changes.

In the following excerpt from Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine, Scott Horton discusses some of the many nefarious operations of USAID and NED in Europe. As Washington completed a series of political revolutions, regime change operations, and coups, it changed the balance of power in the region.

In 2014, the US pulled off its second coup in Ukraine in ten years, putting Washington, Kiev, and Moscow on the path to war.

The excerpt below is just a portion of Horton’s comprehensive coverage of USAID and NED’s regime change operations that created a New Cold War with Russia. Donate to the Libertarian Institute’s fund drive, and you can get a signed copy of Provoked.

~ Kyle Anzalone


NED

The color-coded revolutions were essentially U.S. coups d’état dressed up as local “uprisings,” primarily against Russian-leaning states in their near abroad. Backed by the CIA, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), National Endowment for Democracy (NED), National Democratic Institute (NDI), International Republican Institute (IRI) and friendly, supposedly private non-governmental organizations (NGOs) like Serbian Otpor, the Soros Foundation, Open Society Foundation, International Renaissance Foundation and the Atlantic Council, they have had quite a few successes.

Allen Weinstein, a co-founder of the NED, told the Washington Post’s David Ignatius in 1991, “A lot of what we do today was done covertly twenty-five years ago by the CIA.” Ignatius added, “When [Cold War-era] covert activities surfaced (as they inevitably did), the fallout was devastating. The CIA connection, intended to protect people and organizations from public embarrassment, had precisely the opposite effect.” However, “The biggest difference is that when such activities are done overtly, the flap potential is close to zero. Openness is its own protection.”

Electoral Revolution

Though the U.S. and allied oil companies British Petroleum and Amoco helped overthrow President Abulfaz Elchibey of Azerbaijan in 1993, that was more of a straight-up coup than any pretended “revolution.” But those started with mixed success in Albania and Bulgaria in 1996,  Montenegro and Romania  in 1997, Armenia in 1998Slovakia and Croatia in 1999 and Serbia in 2000.

Slovakia 

The NED’s Rodger Potocki explained that “NDI … and IRI, in the early 90s, working in Bulgaria and Romania, came up with two key ideas on how you build momentum for democratic change: citizen advocacy and monitoring groups.”  In 1997, after the success of their intervention in the Bulgarian elections, the NED targeted Slovak President Vladimír Mečiar. The NED and associated NGOs spent more than $850,000 in direct financial support to Mečiar’s opponent, Paval Demeš, and his OK’98 campaign. Contributors to Demeš’s “electoral revolution” included the United States Information Service, the IRI and NDI, Soros’s Open Society Foundation, the German Marshall Fund, as well as the governments of Britain and the Netherlands.

This money paid for a tour of 13 rock concerts, two films and a television ad buy, encouraging the young to vote. It was a massive success. The NGOs also did extensive exit polling so they could claim their results before the votes could be counted. Though the incumbent’s party received the most votes, the minority parties were able to form a coalition and oust him for a Western-compliant MP named Mikuláš Dzurinda. The NED and associated groups only claimed to be supporting the process, but that was an obvious lie. Their propaganda was entirely designed to push people to vote for the right guy — or at least against the wrong one.

Croatia

In Croatia, Clinton turned on his ally Franjo Tudjman. The NED and its allies created a new group called Citizens Organized to Monitor Elections (known by its Croatian acronym GONG). Again they bought a massive advertising campaign in support of pro-Western parties. The Slovak politician and NGO leader Demeš traveled to Croatia to help show GONG how it was done. Tudjman died just before the election and the pro-Western parties won. Demeš later became a leader at the German Marshall Fund. At least he was honest about what they were doing, saying that “[e]xternal funding for these civic campaigns is critical. Without external support, they wouldn’t happen.”

The Same Old NGO Scam

The NED’s Carl Gershman himself later referred to this revolution as a successful “overthrow” of Yanukovych. Apologists for this intervention like to cry that accusers are “denying the agency” of the Ukrainians who did the coup. But that is ridiculous. Every CIA- or NED-backed coup plot in history has relied on local forces to agitate and then ultimately take over the country. Domestic opponents who accepted U.S. help to replace Shukri al-Quwatli, Mohammad Mosaddeq, Jacobo Árbenz, Ngo Dinh Diem, Sukarno, João Goulart, Cheddi Jagan, Patrice Lumumba, Rafael Trujillo, Gough Whitlam, Salvador Allende, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, Vladimír Mečiar, Franjo Tudjman, Slobodan Milošević, Eduard Shevardnadze, Askar Akayev, Manuel Zelaya, Muammar Gaddafi, Mohamed Morsi, Evo Morales, Viktor Yanukovych, etc. all had “agency,” alright: they were the sock puppets of “the Agency” — the American CIA and their junior partners at USAID, the NED and the rest of the regime change industry.

The question is regarding the motives behind and extent of U.S. government intervention and whether it helped to make a difference in the success of the regime change. As former CIA Director of Operations Ray S. Cline put it, in reference to the successful 1953 Iran coup, what counted was “supplying just the right bit of marginal assistance in the right way at the right time. Such is the nature of effective political action.” The Ukrainians and their factions are the pieces, while major powers America and Russia are the players in this game of chess.

For example, Center UA was a “civil society” group run by Oleh Rybachuk, the former chief of staff of ex-President Yushchenko, who had been central to the CIA-MI6 scheme to work with the Ukrainian SBU against Yanukovych during the Orange Revolution of 2004, and bankrolled by American oligarchs Pierre Omidyar — who donated $335,000 in 2011 alone — and, though he later denied it, George Soros. The Open Society Foundation was happy to take credit where it was due. “The International Renaissance Foundation played an important role supporting civil society during the Euromaidan protests,” they boasted, adding that they had paid for legal aid for “activists, protesters and journalists,” as well as medical care and assistance to Hromadske TV and other pro-Maidan media. The Kyiv Post reported in 2014 that USAID gave Center UA more than $500,000 in 2012 through an NGO called Pact Inc., adding, “Nearly 36 percent came from Omidyar Network, a foundation established by eBay founder Pierre Omidyar and his wife.” And, of course, Soros’s International Renaissance Foundation and NED picked up the rest. With the help of USAID-backed Pact Inc., Rybachuk’s Center UA organized approximately 60 different NGOs and provided grants to at least 80 more. Rybachuk also headed up the Civic Expert Council, advocating for Ukraine to sign the new association agreement with the EU.

As soon as Amb. Pyatt got to Kiev, he approved a $50,000 USAID grant to Hromadske TV. Their editor-in-chief Roman Skrypin worked for the U.S. government’s Radio Liberty and the also-U.S.-funded Ukrainska Pravda. He got another $30,000 from Soros’s International Renaissance Foundation. Skrypin also helped to set up the Channel 5 TV network with money from the IRF in time for the Orange Revolution in 2004. USAID gave Pact Inc. $7 million in 2013. “Euromaidan Press,” official mouthpiece of the Maidan movement, admitted two years later that they got the vast majority of their funding from Soros’s Renaissance Foundation. Their website still reads, “Euromaidan Press is grateful for the longtime support of the International Renaissance Foundation,” and for “the past support of GPD Charitable Trust, British Embassy Kyiv, and National Democratic Institute.”

IRF beneficiary Viktoria Siumar from Hromadske Radio thanked Soros for all his generosity, saying that “without those efforts the revolution might not have succeeded… Partners of the IRF were the main driving force and the foundation of the Maidan movement.”

This is how it works. As the Financial Times reported, “Kiev-based New Citizen, headed by Rybachuk … played a big role in getting the protest up and running weeks ago when Yanukovych backed out of signing far-reaching association and free trade agreements with the EU.” The plan had been in the works for years. As Rybachuk told the Financial Post back in 2012, “We now have 150 NGOs in all the major cities in our ‘clean up Parliament campaign.’ … Facebook had 300,000 members a year ago and now has two million. The Orange Revolution was a miracle. … We want to do that again and we think we will.”

Mustafa Nayyem, co-founder of Hromadske TV, explained in an article for Soros’s Open Societies Foundation that he had kicked the protests off on November 21 with a Facebook post asking people to meet at the Maidan. But as journalist Kit Klarenberg explained, “Nayyem was no ordinary ‘online journalist.’ In October 2012, he was one of six Ukrainians whisked to Washington, D.C., by Meridian International, a State Department-connected organization that identifies and grooms future overseas leaders, to ‘observe and experience’ that year’s Presidential election.” The group met with Senator John McCain among others while they were in town.

Also interestingly, Klarenberg found that “[i]n the hours following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NED hurried to remove any and all trace of its funding for organizations in Ukraine from its website.” He noted that while the NED grants database for Ukraine returned no results, “a snapshot of the page captured February 25th [2022] reveals that since 2014, a total of 334 projects in the country have been awarded a staggering $22.4 million,” adding that “by NED President Duane Wilson’s reckoning, Kiev is the organization’s fourth-largest funding recipient worldwide.” Journalist Will Porter found  scrubbed NED records showing they had spent $4.5 million on 70 separate projects in 2013–2014 alone.  Is the NED leadership not proud of the assistance they have given? Evidently they find it preferable to keep their name out of the prehistory of this terrible conflict.

Forbes magazine dug even deeper into Hromadske TV’s funding and found contributions from the U.S., Swiss and German embassies, various Canadian and Swiss government agencies and assorted NGOs, as well as the European Commission’s Ukrainian delegation office. “[D]onations from the European Commission are a particularly interesting reveal,” Forbes noted, “given the anti-Russian government news … coming out of Hromadske.” Rather than a grassroots effort of “the Ukrainian people,” as Nuland claimed, USAID’s annual report from 2013 makes it clear that Ukraine’s entire “civil society” was nothing but American and Western European astroturf. Their NGOs spent at least tens of millions of dollars picking and choosing winners across many different fields.

Soros’s Freedom House even sent out a fundraising appeal based on their intervention in this case. “More support, including yours, is urgently needed to ensure that Ukrainian citizens struggling for their freedom are protected and supported.” No point in their being modest. The group’s David J. Kramer had issued an official statement demanding Yanukovych resign on December 9.

Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoysky, who controlled vast oil, gas and banking interests in the country, had an old grudge against Yanukovych from previous fights over the semi-private oil company Ukrtatnafta. He quickly employed his TV channel 1+1 in service of the protest movement.

Author: Scott Horton

Scott Horton is editorial director of Antiwar.com, director of the Libertarian Institute, and podcasts the Scott Horton Show from ScottHorton.org. He’s the author of the 2024 book Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine the 2021 book Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism, the 2017 book, Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan, and the editor of the 2019 book, The Great Ron Paul: The Scott Horton Show Interviews 2004–2019. He’s conducted more than 5,500 interviews since 2003. Scott’s articles have appeared at Antiwar.com, The American Conservative magazine, the History News Network, The Future of FreedomThe National Interest and the Christian Science Monitor. He also contributed a chapter to the 2019 book, The Impact of War. Scott lives in Austin, Texas with his wife, investigative reporter Larisa Alexandrovna Horton. He is a fan of, but no relation to the lawyer from Harper’s. Scott’s TwitterYouTubePatreon. 


HINDUTVA CENSORSHIP

Indian police seize books by Islamist political party founder in Kashmir



A man visiting a bookshop in Srinagar on Feb 18. Store owners said the Indian police seized books by Islamist political party Jamaat-e-Islami founder Abul Ala Maududi.PHOTO: AFP

UPDATED Feb 19, 2025

SRINAGAR, India – The Indian police in disputed Kashmir have raided dozens of bookshops and seized hundreds of copies of books by an Islamic scholar, sparking angry reactions by Muslim leaders.

The police said searches were based on “credible intelligence regarding the clandestine sale and distribution of literature promoting the ideology of a banned organisation”.

Officers did not name the author, but store owners said they had seized literature by the late Abul Ala Maududi, founder of the Islamist political party Jamaat-e-Islami.


Kashmir has been divided between India and Pakistan since their independence from British rule in 1947, and both claim the Himalayan territory in full.

Rebel groups, demanding Kashmir’s freedom or its merger with Pakistan, have been fighting Indian forces for decades, with tens of thousands killed in the conflict.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu-nationalist government banned the Kashmir branch of Jamaat-e-Islami in 2019 as an “unlawful association”.

New Delhi renewed the ban in 2024 for what it said were “activities against the security, integrity and sovereignty” of the nation.

Plainclothes officers began raids on Jan 15 in the main city of Srinagar, before launching book seizures in other towns across the Muslim-majority region.

“They (police) came and took away all the copies of books authored by Abul Ala Maududi saying these books were banned,” a bookshop owner in Srinagar told AFP, asking not to be named.

“These books were found to be in violation of legal regulations, and strict action is being taken against those found in possession of such material,” the police said in a statement.

The police said the searches were conducted “to prevent the circulation of banned literature linked to Jamaat-e-Islami”.

The raids sparked anger among supporters of the party.

“The seized books promote good moral values and responsible citizenship,” said Mr Shamim Ahmed Thokar.

Mr Umar Farooq, Kashmir’s chief cleric and a prominent leader advocating for the right to self-determination, condemned the police action.

“Cracking down on Islamic literature and seizing them from bookstores is ridiculous,” Mr Farooq said in a statement, pointing out that the literature was available online.

“Policing thought by seizing books is absurd – to say the least – in the time of access to all information on virtual highways,” he added.

Critics and many residents of Kashmir say civil liberties were drastically curtailed after Mr Modi’s government imposed direct rule in 2019 by scrapping Kashmir’s constitutionally enshrined partial autonomy. AFP
RHETORICAL QUESTION

Knowledge is Power—Why Would the Government Want to Dismantle Education?

Dismantling the Department of Education is not just a political talking point; it is an existential threat to millions of students who depend on federal protections 



First-grader Khatona Miller, right, investigates a circled location on a world globe with other classmates on August 22, 2000 at Chicago's Stewart Elementary School.
(Photo: Tim Boyle/Newsmakers)
nd funding.

Rachel Ghosh
Feb 23, 2025
Common Dreams

Education has long been called the great equalizer—a fundamental tool for upward mobility and societal progress. Yet, the Trump administration is advocating for the complete dismantling of the federal Department of Education, or ED,, a move that would profoundly harm millions of students, especially students with disabilities, those living in poverty, and those facing discrimination.

Eliminating the ED would strip away crucial protections, defund essential programs, and exacerbate the inequalities that already plague American education. It’s not just bad policy; it’s a direct attack on the very idea that knowledge should be accessible to all.

For my family, education was never just about personal achievement—it was about survival, progress, and the ability to dream beyond one’s circumstances. My paternal grandparents grew up in a small village in Kolkata, India, in large families with limited means. My grandfather, one of 11 children, grew up in a mud house and did not own a pair of shoes until high school. Yet, thanks to India’s government-funded education system, he and my grandmother attended public schools from kindergarten through their PhDs without paying a dime. Their access to education wasn’t determined by wealth or geography—it was a right.

President Donald Trump himself has said we “have to learn from history.” So why is the administration actively working to undo the progress we’ve made?

That right changed their lives. After immigrating to the United States in 1966, my grandfather eventually became the first Indian-born president of an American university. My late grandmother, too, built a career in academia, inspiring generations of students, including me. They passed down their belief in education’s power to transform lives, a belief my mother upheld when she ensured I attended one of the best public schools available in our Midwestern state. Today, my own career is focused on ensuring that all children have access to the same life-changing opportunities that shaped my family’s story.

That’s why I am deeply alarmed at the administration’s apparent push to destroy the very institution that safeguards equitable access to education in America. The plan to abolish the ED and send all education back to the states would be calamitous. While states and localities already control most aspects of education, the ED plays an essential role in leveling the playing field. It ensures federal funding for students in low-income areas (Title I), enforces protections for students with disabilities (IDEA), and holds states accountable for upholding civil rights in schools.

Without the ED, low-income students will lose critical support. Title I funding currently supports approximately 2 in 3 public schools in the United States. Eliminating this funding would lead to devastating budget cuts, staff layoffs, and program eliminations in schools serving low-income communities. Additionally, students with disabilities will be left behind. The IDEA program currently serves about 7.5 million children aged 3 to 21, accounting for 15% of all public school students. Without ED oversight and funding, these students may not receive the specialized services they need, hindering their educational progress and future opportunities. Civil rights enforcement will also weaken. Historically, federal intervention has been necessary to combat racial segregation, gender discrimination, and unequal educational opportunities. Without ED oversight, there will be no clear mechanism to address discrimination complaints, leaving marginalized students vulnerable.

The elimination of the ED would be particularly harmful to children in government systems. Those in state foster care could lose hard-won protections that ensure they receive a consistent education in their home communities instead of being bounced from school to school and are provided with a course of study appropriate for their age and abilities. They are also far more likely to require specialized educational services—and the federal funding to pay for it. In addition, the ED plays an important role in supporting English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) programs so immigrant students attain proficiency and meet academic standards.

Finally, without the ED, higher education will become less accessible. Millions of college students depend on federal loans and Pell Grants, which are administered by the department. Without them, higher education will become an impossible dream for many. These consequences won’t just affect individual students—they will reverberate across society, deepening inequality and economic disparity for generations to come.

America’s education system is far from perfect. Teachers are underpaid and overworked, standardized testing is flawed, and school funding is wildly uneven. But abandoning federal oversight is not the solution—it’s a retreat into an era when education was a privilege reserved for certain groups and not a right.

Before the ED’s creation in 1979, education was almost entirely a state and local matter, and the disparities were staggering. Many students—particularly in the South, in rural areas, and in low-income communities—had little access to quality education. Black students faced legal segregation and underfunded schools. Girls had fewer opportunities in STEM fields and less access to higher education. Students with disabilities were often denied an education entirely. Federal actions, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, played a critical role in correcting these injustices.

President Donald Trump himself has said we “have to learn from history.” So why is the administration actively working to undo the progress we’ve made? If we allow education to be completely dictated by state governments—many of which are already erasing and rewriting history curricula—will we even be able to learn from our past at all?

Dismantling the Department of Education is not just a political talking point; it is an existential threat to millions of students who depend on federal protections and funding. If we want America to be a land of opportunity, we must fight to preserve and strengthen the institutions that make upward mobility possible. That means investing in teachers, improving curricula, and expanding access to education—not gutting the very foundation of educational equity. If you still aren’t convinced, take a walk past your local school and remember what it felt like to sit in those classrooms. Talk with a child about what topics excite them in school. Ask a grandparent how education changed their life. Then, truly consider what it would mean for these opportunities to be stripped away.

Knowledge is power; why would our own government want to take it away?


Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.


Rachel Ghosh is a senior policy analyst and researcher for Children’s Rights.
Full Bio >
We Can Accelerate the Clean Energy Transition, Even Under Trump

The momentum toward a sustainable future will be unstoppable if clean energy supporters speak up in their own communities.



An ENGIE employee walks past solar panels at the ENGIE Sun Valley Solar project in Hill County, Texas, on March 1, 2023.
(Photo: Mark Felix / AFP via Getty Images)

Matt Traldi
Feb 23, 2025
Common Dreams


Here's a bold prediction for the start of the second Trump administration: The next four years will be the best yet for America's clean energy transition.

That may sound surprising, given the significant steps President Donald Trump has already taken to try to reverse American leadership on climate and clean energy. There's much still unknown about the potential impact of Trump's early executive orders, but one truth remains clear: Far from slowing down, we could be entering a period of unprecedented renewable energy progress.

There's already strong momentum behind the clean energy shift, and whether that momentum continues is less dependent on the federal government than you might think. Trump can't change the reality that, for a huge number of clean energy projects, the permitting authority rests not with federal agencies, but with state and local decision-makers.

Now more than ever, speaking up for clean energy in your community is one of the most impactful steps you can take for the planet, your local economy, and the health and safety of future generations.

This means that the main determinant of how much progress clean energy makes over the next four years isn't the Trump administration. It's your neighbors—and you.

Don't be distracted by all the ink that will be spilled in the coming months about Trump's efforts to slow progress on offshore wind and electric vehicles, or to roll back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). For starters, experts agree that a full repeal of the IRA—which made the single largest investment in climate and energy in American history—is unlikely. This landmark law has been an economic boon to red and blue states alike, earning bipartisan support.

The way forward remains open for the vast majority of clean energy projects permitted mostly or entirely at the state and local level. There, local governments, influenced by support across the political spectrum, have become powerful engines of clean energy progress.

Solar and wind are now the cheapest energy options available, even without subsidies. Across the country, these technologies are increasingly boosting local economies, generating revenue for public services, creating well-paying jobs, and delivering health and climate benefits for millions.

Now, our often-overlooked town planning and zoning commissions or county councils hold the key to driving clean energy forward in the coming years. Right now, these spaces are often dominated by small numbers of highly organized opponents—many backed by the same fossil fuel-linked interests that are now shaping Trump's energy policy. Left unchecked, these opponents have become adept at stalling or derailing clean energy progress. As of early 2024, at least 15% of U.S. counties had effectively banned utility-scale wind or solar projects, despite the fact that the vast majority of Americans support these technologies.

Here's the opportunity. With so few people in attendance at local hearings, noisy opponents can significantly influence local decision-makers. That also means every person who makes the choice to speak out in favor of clean energy projects can make a big difference.

Take Mesa County, Colorado, where volunteers with the Western Colorado Alliance came together to overturn a moratorium on solar development in spring 2024. The handful of volunteers who took the time to show up to the pivotal public hearing helped ensure that community support for solar growth was on clear display, outweighing the opposition and convincing local officials to lift the county's ban.

This small group of volunteers helped create jobs, improved health, made their grid more reliable, and had a bigger impact for the climate in one step, together, than through years of individual actions. Even one 500-megawatt solar array that gets built as a result will help avoid the carbon emissions of more than 80,000 people switching to electric vehicles.

With a focus on supporting more of these projects in communities nationwide, clean energy will continue to boom in Trump's second term and beyond, creating a more livable climate and stronger economy for all.

So how do you take action where you live? It's easier than you think—here's a guide to getting started. Visit your city, county, or town's website and see what's on the planning docket. Check your local media for news about clean energy. And when you hear about a proposed project, don't just assume it will happen—or that it will fail. Do your research, share what you learn with neighbors, and reach out to organizations like the one I founded, Greenlight America, for help.

Most importantly, follow the project's approval process and, when it's up for a vote, be there or write in to voice your support to local leaders. They say 90% of success in life is showing up. For clean energy permitting, it's more like 100%.

Now more than ever, speaking up for clean energy in your community is one of the most impactful steps you can take for the planet, your local economy, and the health and safety of future generations.

There will be hundreds of opportunities to make this impact across the country in the next four years. Together, project by project and community by community, we can all fight climate change and pollution and bring clean energy and its economic benefits to all of our communities. The power is in our hands


Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.


Matt Traldi
Matt Traldi is the CEO of Greenlight America, a national nonprofit organization that supports local groups and volunteers working to get clean energy projects built in their communities. He was a co-founder of the national grassroots democracy organization Indivisible.
Full Bio >


Trump’s South Africa Executive Order Reflects the Global History of White Supremacy

The right wing in the United States as well as Great Britain, Canada, and elsewhere, has held a fascination for apartheid and has regretted its abolition.


South African farmer Tewie Wessels addresses a group of white South Africans supporting U.S. President Donald Trump and South African and U.S. tech billionaire Elon Musk gather in front of the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria, on February 15, 2025 during a demonstration.
(Photo: Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images)
Foreign Policy In Focus

On February 7, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order “to address serious human rights violations occurring in South Africa.” The order charged “blatant discrimination” against “ethnic minority descendants of settler groups,” and mandated “a plan to resettle disfavored minorities in South Africa discriminated against because of their race as refugees.” His actions echo a long history of right-wing support in the United States for racism in Southern Africa, including mobilization of support for white Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) as well as the apartheid regime in South Africa.

Analysts in South Africa quickly pointed out the many factual errors in Trump’s diatribe. Even Afrikaners, who he alleges are persecuted, are unlikely to accept being refugees since South Africa is their home country. The post-apartheid constitution of 1997, echoing the African National Congress’ Freedom Charter of 1955, clearly states that South Africa belongs to “all who live in it.” But Trump’s misunderstanding is an example of the transnational scope of white racist nostalgia.

An essential component of opposing the MAGA offensive against human rights in the United States has been new understandings of U.S. history, as reflected in the 1619 Project and a host of other publications. Most often, however, this discussion has focused on the United States in isolation. Scholars such as Ana Lucia Araújo, in Humans in Shackles, and Howard French, in Born of Blackness, have pioneered wider global histories. But however influential this trend is among historians, it has not been matched by attention in the media or public debate.

The sympathy that even liberal Robert F. Kennedy expressed for South African white pioneers on a hostile frontier evokes the common ideology of legitimizing settler conquest.

In the global history of white supremacy, the close relationship between the United States and South Africa stands out for centuries of interaction between the two settler colonies, with both ideological and material links from the 17th to the 20th centuries. Significant links between Black resistance movements in the two countries also date back at least to the early 20th century. But until the end of official apartheid in the 1990s, the closest bonds were between white America and white South Africa.

In a short history of the Boer War written by eight-year-old future CIA Director Allen Dulles in 1901, and published by his grandfather, Dulles noted that the Boers landed at the Cape in 1652, “finding no people but a few Indians,” and that “it was not right for the British to come in because the Boers had the first right to the land.” For Dulles, as for other U.S. policymakers until almost the end of the 20th century, it was axiomatic that only whites had rights.

The parallels between these two settler colonies were significant. Robert F. Kennedy, speaking to university students in Cape Town in June 1966, put it like this:
I come here this evening because of my deep interest and affection for a land settled by the Dutch in the mid-17th century, then taken over by the British, and at last independent; a land in which the native inhabitants were at first subdued, but relations with whom remain a problem to this day; a land which defined itself on a hostile frontier; a land which has tamed rich natural resources through the energetic application of modern technology; a land which once the importer of slaves, and now must struggle to wipe out the last traces of that former bondage. I refer, of course, to the United States of America.

The parallels were matched by a long history of interaction. The concept for the African reserves (later Bantustans) in South Africa was modeled on American Indian reservations. As noted by historian John W. Cell, Americans and South Africans debated how to shape “segregation” in urbanizing societies in the mid-20th century. The Carnegie Corporation of New York financed both the classic study of the situation of “poor whites° in South Africa and Gunnar Myrdal´s The American Dilemma: The Negro Problem and American Democracy.

In the early 20th century, mining engineer Herbert Hoover (later U.S. president) was the founder and director of the Chinese Engineering and Mining Corporation, which shipped some 50.000 Chinese laborers to South Africa to work in South African mines. The scheme was abandoned in 1911. Mention of it was recently deleted from Wikipedia, most likely in 2018.

Both countries were united during the Cold War through anti-communism. South African officials studied McCarthyist legislation in the United States and applied it at home through the Suppression of Communism Act. In both countries, “anti-communism” became a way to defy demands for civil rights. Although white racism in South Africa became the focus of international condemnation after the official adoption of apartheid in 1948, the United States and other Western countries systematically opposed sanctions against South Africa for decades until the rise of the international anti-apartheid movement resulted in the congressional override of President Ronald Reagan’s veto to pass the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act of 1986.

That success came after decades of campaigning in the United States and around the world, with heightened international attention coming in response to resistance in South Africa itself. The Treason Trial from 1956 to 1961, in which Nelson Mandela and 135 other leaders of the African National Congress were charged, evoked widespread anti-apartheid actions in the United Kingdom and other countries. The Sharpeville Massacre in 1960 and the Soweto Youth Uprising in 1976 precipitated even larger waves of protest, fueled by new media options. Resistance reached a new peak after the formation of the United Democratic Front in 1983.

Following the release of Nelson Mandela in 1990, and the first non-racial election that brought him into office, there was worldwide celebration at the end of political apartheid. In later years, it became clear that only a minority of Black South Africans had joined the elite at the top of a still sharply unequal society. Disillusionment and discontent over high rates of unemployment and poverty arose among the majority of Black South Africans.

But that is a very different sentiment than the nostalgia for the old apartheid order among white South Africans who left the country as well as many who stayed in South Africa.

The right wing in the United States as well as Great Britain, Canada, and elsewhere, has held a fascination for apartheid and has regretted its abolition. The global anti-apartheid movement unleashed unprecedented demands by citizens to rein in corporate activity that supported apartheid. In the same way that climate activists studied divestment, so too have conservative lobbying groups studied how to block divestment groups. The sympathy that even liberal Robert F. Kennedy expressed for South African white pioneers on a hostile frontier evokes the common ideology of legitimizing settler conquest. Trump’s Executive Order can only be understood in that context.

An Unconstitutional Rampage

Trump and Musk are on an unconstitutional rampage, aiming for virtually every corner of the federal government. These two right-wing billionaires are targeting nurses, scientists, teachers, daycare providers, judges, veterans, air traffic controllers, and nuclear safety inspectors. No one is safe. The food stamps program, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are next.

It’s an unprecedented disaster and a five-alarm fire, but there will be a reckoning. The people did not vote for this. The American people do not want this dystopian hellscape that hides behind claims of “efficiency.” Still, in reality, it is all a giveaway to corporate interests and the libertarian dreams of far-right oligarchs like Musk.

Common Dreams is playing a vital role by reporting day and night on this orgy of corruption and greed, as well as what everyday people can do to organize and fight back. As a people-powered nonprofit news outlet, we cover issues the corporate media never will, but we can only continue with our readers’ support.

© 2023 Foreign Policy In Focus


Zeb Larson
Zeb Larson is a writer and historian of the anti-apartheid movement based in Columbus, Ohio. He got a PhD from The Ohio State University in 2019. He writes on a wide variety of topics, including foreign policy and history.
Full Bio >

William Minter
William Minter is the editor of AfricaFocus Bulletin.