OPEC Drops U.S. EIA as a Secondary Source Assessing Oil Production

By Charles Kennedy - Feb 03, 2025

OPEC has replaced the EIA with Kpler, OilX, and ESAI as secondary sources for assessing crude oil production and compliance with output cuts.

This decision comes after OPEC previously dropped the IEA from its list of data sources.

The move is seen as a significant snub to the U.S. energy agency and reflects growing tensions between OPEC and the West.


OPEC is dropping the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) as a secondary source to assess crude oil production of the OPEC+ countries and their compliance with the group’s output cuts, the cartel said after a panel meeting on Monday.

After thorough analysis from the OPEC Secretariat, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) replaced consultancy Rystad Energy and the EIA with Kpler, OilX, and ESAI, as part of the secondary sources used to assess the crude oil production and compliance, OPEC said.

The move is effective from February 1, 2025. Before that date, OPEC used figures from seven consultancies and agencies, including the EIA, Rystad Energy, and Wood Mackenzie, among others.

OPEC uses secondary sources to track and report its crude oil production and to monitor compliance with the OPEC+ production cuts by using the average of the figures provided by these sources.

OPEC had already dropped in 2022 the International Energy Agency (IEA) from its list of secondary sources after the Paris-based agency embarked on a campaign to criticize oil-producing countries and call for no new oil and gas projects in a world of net zero emissions.

OPEC has repeatedly slammed the international agency for what the cartel says are “dangerous” predictions of peak oil demand by 2030.

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman even called in 2021 the IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero “La La Land”.

Now it’s the turn of the U.S. EIA to be replaced as a secondary source.

OPEC did not give explanations as to why it has decided to drop the U.S. energy administration from its pool of secondary sources providers.

At the Monday meeting of the JMMC, the OPEC+ panel reviewing policy and markets and potentially recommending actions to the group’s ministers to take, the committee said it would not recommend changes to the group’s current plans to begin gradually unwinding the cuts in April 2025.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

Why US Refiners Won’t Ditch Canadian Crude

By Alex Kimani - Feb 03, 2025

Stanchart: Tariffs on Canadian oil could lead to reduced refinery runs and higher gas prices in the U.S. Midwest.

Analysts predict Mexico may opt to divert exports to Asia and Europe, significantly reducing shipments to the U.S.

Despite the 10% levy, Canadian crude flows to the U.S. are unlikely to be disrupted.



Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced that U.S. tariffs are on hold for one month after she held talks with President Trump and pledged to send 10,000 troops to the border to fight drug trafficking. Trump also spoke to Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau to discuss the punitive tariffs, saying that Ottawa has “misunderstood” the situation. Over the weekend, Trump slapped Canada and Mexico with duties of 25% and China with a 10% levy. Oil flows facing tariffs represent 44% of U.S. oil product imports, 69% of crude oil imports and 81% of heavy crude oil imports. Last week, Trump engaged in his usual isolationist bluster, claiming that the U.S. does not need Canadian commodities including oil and lumber. “We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country,” he said while speaking at the World Economic Forum.

However, the experts have pointed out that Trump needs a reality check.

“It’s not factually correct,” Richard Masson, an executive at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, told CTV News. “They do need our oil. We ship diluted bitumen, so four million barrels a day go to the states; more than two million barrels a day of that is diluted bitumen. It goes to refineries that are specifically configured to process it, especially in Minneapolis, Chicago and Wood River. That’s why they rely on it so heavily. So, the first part is hopefully we can talk to him and educate him if he doesn’t understand it. I’m sure that the big refiners in the U.S. are doing that now. But if it turns out that he’s going to put a tariff on it, then our challenge will be what happens to overall demand.”

Similarly, commodity analysts at StandardChartered have painted a dire picture of the situation, saying oil buyers in the Midwest will almost certainly pay the price of the tariffs thanks to the limited substitutability of Canadian crude with other oils resulting in strong pass-through to retail prices.

According to the analysts, the U.S. imported ~ 6.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil in the first 10 months of 2024, of which 4.0 mb/d was heavy oil for use in upgraded refineries with cracking units. Canada provided 75% of U.S. heavy crude oil imports in 2024, with its market share having steadily increased since 2000, squeezing outflows from Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. Some 80% of Canada's crude production flows downstream to U.S. refiners, with U.S. imports of Canadian crude reaching a record high of 4.42M bbl/day in the week ending January 3, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Unfortunately for Midwest refineries, heavy oil cannot easily be substituted with the light oil that makes up most of U.S. shale oil production. StanChart has pointed out that such a switch would create a significant loss of optimization in the highly expensive cracking units that require feed from vacuum distillation of the heavy residual obtained by simple distillation. Canada has supplied 99.89% of all heavy imports into Midwest refineries over the past decade; the low substitutability of this flow implies that a tariff would largely feed through to local retail prices. Refiners will also have to cut runs due to the loss of refinery optimisation.

And, the increase in fuel prices would be substantial: According to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan, consumers in the Midwest could end up paying ~10% extra for their gas if Trump goes ahead with his tariffs. Tom Kloza at the Oil Price Information Service has predicted that the tariffs could raise gasoline prices by $0.35/gal in parts of the country if the tariffs were passed completely along to consumers.

Meanwhile, StanChart has predicted that Mexico’s exports to the U.S. are likely to all but cease, with oil being rerouted into Asia and Europe. Last month, the European Union and Mexico agreed to a revamped free-trade agreement days before Trump began a second term. Mexico, in particular, pushed hard to revamp the trade deal with the EU ahead of Trump’s inauguration as a way to show strength before the review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, known as USMCA. The U.S. is, by far, Mexico’s biggest trade partner, accounting for 83% of Mexico’s trade relationship. Trump has criticized the EU’s trade practices and said he would impose duties on exports by the bloc. He’s also said he’d impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico.

“This landmark deal proves that open, rules-based trade can deliver for our prosperity and economic security, as well as climate action and sustainable development,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Canadian Crude Becomes a Bargain for China as US Tariffs Bite

By Irina Slav - Feb 03, 2025

U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude make the barrel more expensive for U.S. refiners.

The tariffs could give European and Asian refiners a competitive edge.

Canada is the biggest supplier of heavy crude to American refiners, exporting it at a rate of close to 4 million barrels daily.





President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs on the United States' two largest trade partners—Canada and Mexico—have become a reality. Canadian imports will now face a 25% tariff, while Mexico has secured a 30-day pause. Even with a reduced tariff on Canadian crude, the added costs will make refining feedstocks more expensive for U.S. refiners, giving their European and Asian competitors a competitive edge.

Trump has picked tariffs as his favored trade policy weapon to balance a trade deficit the U.S. is running with the European Union—next on the tariff chopping block—and as a means of forcing U.S. neighbors to tighten border control with a view to stemming illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling. The decision to impose the tariffs on Canada and Mexico has been widely criticized, with critics noting it would hurt American taxpayers, whom Trump promised cheaper fuel.

Canada warned as much early on. “Canadian energy and resources—including oil and critical minerals—underpin the long-term economic security and prosperity of both Canada and the United States to protect our energy security and reduce our reliance on the resources of non-like-minded countries,” Canada’s foreign minister, Melanie Jolie, told the Financial Times last month. She went on to warn the tariff push could force U.S. refiners to swap Canadian for Venezuelan crude in what would be an ironic twist.

Related: U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge On Canada Tariffs, Massive Withdrawals

Canada is the biggest supplier of heavy crude to American refiners, exporting it at a rate of close to 4 million barrels daily, which makes it the biggest exporter of crude oil to the U.S. in general. Mexican crude oil exports north of the border are much smaller, at less than half a million barrels daily, but they still comprise the second-largest share of foreign oil in U.S. refiners’ mix.

According to analysts that Reuters spoke to in the wake of the tariff announcement, the tariffs will hit refiners, shrink their margins and eventually force production curbs—to the potential benefit of refiners in Europe and Asia because as local production of fuels shrinks, imports would have to increase in what seems to be another ironic twist of the Trump tariff crusade.

“Less U.S. diesel exports would support European margins, while more export opportunities may remain in the strongly pressured gasoline market,” Vortexa chief economist David Wech told the publication, adding that the tariffs would be “overall a positive for European refiners, but likely not for European consumers,” as they would squeeze the local supply of fuels.

What could further complicate the situation is Trump’s plan to give the European Union the same tariff treatment he just gave Mexico and Canada, which means European fuel exports to the U.S. would also fall victim to tariffs. This would affect prices as well, both in Europe and the United States—and, of course, prompt retaliatory measures as it did from Canada.

Justin Trudeau already said Canada’s federal government would respond in kind to Trump’s tariffs with a 25 levy on U.S. imports worth some $21 billion, effective Tuesday, and then follow with extending the levy to another $85 billion worth of imports. He also suggested export curbs could be added to the retaliation. “There are a number of different industries and regions of the country that can have greater leverage over the US," Trudeau said, as quoted by Argus. "One thinks of the oil industry for example.”

Meanwhile, Asian—and, more specifically, Chinese—refiners will be more than happy to take in Canadian and Mexican oil that has become too expensive for U.S. refiners, according to analysts interviewed by Reuters. One analyst, founder of Next Barrel, told the publication crude oil sellers would be forced to discount their crude in order to find alternative buyers to U.S. refiners—a most welcome development for Asian refiners who appreciate a bargain.

Another commentator pointed out that in China, demand for refinery feedstocks is about to increase, so it is an opportune moment for refiners there to stock up on discount-heavy from Canada—the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline will come in handy in this respect.

Trump himself has admitted there will be a negative impact from the tariffs on Americans, describing it as “short term” and adding, “I don't expect anything dramatic,” and “They owe us a lot of money, and I'm sure they're going to pay.” Trump also confirmed that the European Union is next, but did not specify a date.

“We may have short term some little pain, and people understand that. But in the long term, the United States has been ripped off by virtually every country in the world,” the U.S. president said, as quoted by Reuters. Indeed, the whole tariff spat could turn out to be a short-term thing as Trump has said he would talk to Justin Trudeau and Claudia Sheinbaum this week. If they fail to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, however, it’s win time for refiners in Europe and Asia—until they get hit by tariffs, too.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

THE FORGOTTEN WAR

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Is a Lasting Peace Agreement Finally Within Reach?

By Eurasianet - Feb 04, 2025

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has expressed willingness to explore a modified version of the Zangezur corridor, without granting Azerbaijan extraterritorial rights.
Armenia has also proposed dropping international court cases against Azerbaijan and is open to dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group to advance peace talks.
These concessions are likely linked to Armenia's desire to create new trade possibilities, including joining a project to export electricity from Central Asia to Europe via Azerbaijan.


Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is sending signals designed to place the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process back on the front burner. In particular, Pashinyan has expressed openness to exploring a modified version of the Zangezur corridor, which would establish a direct link between Azerbaijan proper and the Nakhchivan exclave via Armenian territory.

The corridor issue has proven a major stumbling block for the peace process. Last summer, both sides agreed to set the issue aside, but a few weeks ago, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev unexpectedly restored Zangezur to the negotiating agenda, slamming the brakes on hopes that a peace deal could be finalized quickly.

Azerbaijan has demanded extraterritorial rights for Zangezur, something that would effectively extend Baku’s sovereignty over the route. Armenia has been wary of the very notion of a corridor, but at a January 31 news conference, Pashinyan appeared to adjust his position slightly, saying Armenia would be willing to establish a corridor under the same terms that Azerbaijan would enjoy on a planned railway via Iran to connect to its exclave. Extraterritoriality is not part of the Iranian route discussions.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan was cagey when asked about Armenia’s vision for Zangezur, repeating that Armenia wants to retain full authority over administration of the route, while holding out the possibility that Azerbaijan could enjoy some sort of special privileges. “Naturally, we also recognize that the 21st century is an era of simplifications and logistical facilitation, where all nations seek to ease transit procedures,” Mirzoyan told journalists on January 30. “With Azerbaijan as well, once transport links are unblocked, we foresee certain simplified procedures that could be applied, bringing benefits to both us [Armenia] and Azerbaijan.”

Pashinyan also announced that Armenia has made new proposals on two issues in peace negotiations that remain unresolved, including the possible withdrawal of cases currently pending in international courts. He similarly announced at his January 31 news conference a tentative willingness to explore the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, which oversaw peace negotiations for decades but whose influence has dissipated since Baku’s reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has long accused Minsk Group members, especially France, of being biased in Armenia’s favor.

Pashinyan’s efforts to entice Azerbaijan back to the negotiating table are likely linked to a desire to create new trade possibilities. On January 30, he stated Armenia’s intent on joining a project facilitating the export of electricity from Central Asia across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and onward to Europe. On February 3, Azerbaijan’s parliament ratified an agreement with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to generate “green” electricity and send it westward via a cable beneath the Caspian Sea.

By Eurasianet.org

POSTMODERN IMPERIALI$M

Gates-Bezos backed KoBold begins hunt for battery metals in Namibia

4th February 2025
By: Bloomberg

KoBold Metals Co., backed by billionaires including Bill Gates and Sam Altman, is extending its search for battery metals to Namibia, a country not known for producing the minerals.

The company is prospecting for lithium and nickel in southern and central Namibia after securing licenses in the third quarter of last year, Mfikeyi Makayi, chief executive officer of its African operations, said in an interview Tuesday in Cape Town.


KoBold was valued at nearly $3-billion in its latest fund-raising round. The US-based company uses artificial intelligence to scour the earth for undiscovered deposits of minerals critical to the energy transition. Lithium and nickel are both crucial to make rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles.

Yet Namibia isn’t known for producing either — the southwest African nation is better known as one of the world’s biggest sources of uranium.


“This is why we’re exploring,” Makayi said. “Because it’s not known doesn’t mean the opportunities to look deeper are not there.”

KoBold is still doing early-stage prospecting and field exploration before it starts drilling, she said.

CHILE

Wealth Minerals and the Quechua Indigenous Community of Ollagüe Sign Agreement to Jointly Develop the Kuska Lithium Project

February 3, 2025

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE…Vancouver, British Columbia: Wealth Minerals Ltd. (the “Company” or “Wealth”) – (TSXV: WML; OTCQB: WMLLF; SSE: WMLCL; FSE: EJZN) and the Quechua Indigenous Community of Ollagüe (“CIQO”), collectively the “Parties”, have agreed (the “Agreement”) to form a joint venture company (the “JV”) to develop the Kuska Lithium Project (“Kuska”) on the territory of the Ollagüe Salar.

The Agreement considers that CIQO will make their best efforts to promptly work with the Wealth team to establish a Chilean legal entity to serve as the JV, and CIQO will own a 5% free-carried interest in the JV and have the right to one of five director seats on the Board of Directors of the JV.  Both Wealth and CIQO believe this structure is the right balance to bring Kuska to production and ensure the highest standards of community participation and transparency. The Parties have also discussed the JV developing new projects in the CIQO general area of interest where there may be synergies with Kuska.

The Kuska Project is located in the Ollagüe Salar, Antofogasta region, northern Chile, and is presently 100% owned by Wealth Minerals and royalty-free. The maiden resource report published by Wealth Minerals Ltd. (see press release January 17, 2023 and Technical Report of January 13, 2023 “Estimated Lithium Resources Ollagüe Project” posted on SEDARPlus) estimates 741,000 tons Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (“LCE”) indicated resources grading 175 mg/L (plus 701,000 tons LCE inferred resources grading 185 mg/L) with an average indicated lithium grade of 175mg/l. On January 4, 2024, Wealth announced the key highlights of a PEA produced by DRA Global Limited. The PEA describes the Kuska Project development towards a 20,000 metric tpa LCE output and an anticipated Life of Mine (“LOM”) of 20 years. The Kuska Project in the PEA estimates a Pre-Tax NPV10% of US$1.65 bn and a 33% IRR. The PEA was filed on SEDARPlus on February 16, 2024.

On September 30, 2024, the Government of Chile announced that the Strategic Council of the Lithium and Salt Flats Committee (“Strategic Council”) had approved a first group of six locations for the development of lithium projects in Chile, which included the Ollagüe Salar. The decision was based on all six locations having favorable conditions for the feasibility of a lithium operation. The decision of the Strategic Council means that Kuska will be prioritized to receive a special lithium operation contract (“CEOL”) by the State of Chile (see press release of September 30, 2024).

Regarding the Agreement, Henk van Alphen, CEO of Wealth Minerals Ltd. commented: “We have been working on the base of this agreement for several years and we are confident that the only way to do mining is by effectively incorporating communities into the business and project activities. We plan to continue advancing the development of Kuska, indeed to now accelerate the pace, so that we can soon build a lithium production operation at Ollagüe.”

For his part, Víctor Nina Huanca, President of the Quechua Indigenous Community of Ollagüe, indicates “The association with Wealth Minerals for the Kuska project will allow the Community to be involved in the development of the project, making decisions and guiding the care and protection of the most vulnerable sectors of our territory, ensuring that everything is done with the highest standards. Respect for our worldview and the environment will be key to carrying out this process. We trust that we will be able to continue moving forward together for the good of Chile, the Antofagasta Region and the Community of Ollagüe. This JV initiative, the first of its kind in Chile, gives the Quechua Community of Ollagüe important leadership in the new development agenda of the indigenous peoples of Chile, in which the community acts empowered, directly managing its territory.”

About Wealth Minerals Ltd.

Wealth is a mineral resource company with interests in Canada and Chile. The Company’s focus is the acquisition and development of lithium projects in South America.

The Company opportunistically advances battery metal projects where it has a peer advantage in project selection and initial evaluation.  Lithium market dynamics and a rapidly increasing metal price are the result of profound structural issues with the industry meeting anticipated future demand. Wealth is positioning itself to be a major beneficiary of this future mismatch of supply and demand. In parallel with lithium market dynamics, Wealth believes other battery metals will benefit from similar industry trends.

For further details on the Company readers are referred to the Company’s website (www.wealthminerals.com) and its Canadian regulatory filings on SEDAR at www.sedarplus.ca.

On Behalf of the Board of Directors of

WEALTH MINERALS LTD.

Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/WealthMineralsLtd
Linkedin – https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealth-minerals
Twitter – https://www.twitter.com/WealthMinerals

 Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this press release, which has been prepared by management.

ECOCIDE

Guinea sees maximum Simandou output in second year of operation

Bloomberg News | February 4, 2025 | 

Simandou deposit, Guinea. (Image courtesy of Rio Tinto.)

Guinea expects the giant Simandou iron ore project, which is expected to begin production by December, to achieve maximum output by its second year of operation.


The government projects the two mines at the world’s largest untapped iron ore deposit will produce 30 million tons each in the first year, Mines and Geology Minister Bouna Sylla told Bloomberg TV in an interview. Output is then expected to double to 60 million tons at each cite the following year, he said on Tuesday on the sidelines of the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.

For a mine “to arrive at 60 million tons, that will take roughly two years because you have the ramp-up time,” Sylla said.

The Simandou project is divided into four blocks, with blocks 1 and 2 controlled by Winning Consortium Simandou, backed by Chinese companies including China Baowu Steel Group. Rio Tinto Plc and Aluminum Corp. of China, known as Chinalco, own blocks 3 and 4.

In addition to its iron ore deposits, Guinea is also the world’s biggest exporter of bauxite, a raw material used to make aluminum.

(By Jennifer Zabasajja and Moses Mozart Dzawu)

Read More: Guinea’s Simandou iron ore project seen aiding climate goal

IMPERIALISM & NEO-COLONIALISM 

Barrick CEO says miner ‘making progress’ in dispute with Mali

Bloomberg News | February 4, 2025 

Barrick Gold CEO, Mark Bristow. in interview at the Future Minerals Forum 2024. (Screenshot from FMF TV.)

Barrick Gold Corp. chief executive officer Mark Bristow said the company is “making progress” in its dispute with Mali’s military regime, but the advances haven’t come as fast as expected.


The Canadian company last month suspended operations at the vast Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali after the government started removing gold from the nation’s biggest mine in the latest escalation of a months-long dispute. Barrick and Mali’s military rulers are locked in a standoff over the distribution of revenue from an asset that’s key for both the company and the government

The state has blocked Barrick from shipping the precious metal out of the country since November, and put out an arrest warrant for Bristow. The miner has begun arbitration proceedings against Mali.

“Mali has got itself in a position where it is really trying to shake out some short-term cash out of the industry, and this industry is the very foundation of the economy,” Bristow said. “We’re making progress, not as fast as I would expect, but I’m sure everyone is a little cautious.”

The CEO of the world’s No. 2 gold producer also said more consolidation was needed in the mining industry, with too many companies running too few assets. Barrick would continue to grow organically and buy back shares, Bristow said.

The Barrick chief said there’s still “a lot of upside” in gold, which held near a record after US President Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs on China prompted swift retaliation from Beijing, buoying haven demand.

“We are seeing a continuation of de-dollarization, fueled by the actions coming out of Washington and the White House,” Bristow said. “Conflicts on every continent. Gold has really arrived as the ultimate store of value and people are buying the physical.”

(By Dylan Griffiths and Jennifer Zabasajja)

Ferrexpo plunges 51% after $3.8 billion Ukrainian civil claim

Bloomberg News | February 4, 2025 | 

Ferrexpo’s FPM mine. (Image courtesy of Ferrexpo)

Shares in London-listed miner Ferrexpo PLC sank as much as 51% after the company said a civil claim worth 157 billion Ukrainian hryvnias ($3.8 billion) had been filed against its subsidiary in the Eastern European country.


The Swiss-headquartered iron ore producer saw its biggest intraday drop on record, before paring losses to 23%. Earlier Tuesday the company issued a statement informing investors that its Ukrainian subsidiary Ferrexpo Poltava Mining was facing a claim for allegedly illegally mining and selling subsoil, which is said to have caused damage to the environment.

Ferrexpo rejected the allegations, and said the accusations it faced had “transformed” from earlier ones accusing the company of alleged illegal sale of waste products. The subsidiary intends to defend its position in the Ukrainian courts, according to a market update released by the company.

In mid-January, Ferrexpo issued a statement in response to reports in Ukrainian media concerning accusations made by the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine against four senior managers of its subsidiary, concerning the alleged illegal mining and sale of waste products.

The company said the minerals in question were not a separate mineral resource, and that it had been selling waste products for many years until September 2021, which had been subject to state inspections.

Ferrexpo’s Poltava operation, located in central Ukraine, is the group’s largest mine. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ferrexpo PLC was the world’s third-largest exporter of iron ore pellets.

(By Jack Ryan)

Russia says Trump comments on Ukrainian rare earth minerals amount to request to buy US aid

Reuters | February 4, 2025 | 

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that comments by US President Donald Trump suggesting he wants Ukraine to supply Washington with rare earth minerals show he now wants Kyiv to pay for US assistance rather than receive it for free.


Trump told reporters on Monday that Ukraine was willing to engage in the exchange, adding that he wants “equalization” from Ukraine for Washington’s “close to $300 billion” in support.


Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the comment demonstrated the US is no longer willing to provide free aid to Kyiv.

(By Dmitry Antonov and Lucy Papachristou; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

China hits back at US tariffs with mineral export curbs

Cecilia Jamasmie | February 4, 2025

Washed tungsten, Rwanda. (Image: Fairphone | Flickr.) | Under Creative Commons license. “Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike CC BY-NC-SA.”

China unveiled a series of retaliatory measures against the United States on Tuesday, including restrictions on the export of five critical metals used in defence, clean energy, and other industries. The move comes in response to President Trump’s announcement on Friday of a blanket 10% additional tariff on Chinese imports.


Beijing’s new export controls target tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, and molybdenum, stating that export licenses will only be granted to companies complying with “relevant regulations.” However, the Chinese government has not provided details about the specific criteria for compliance.

While significant, these measures fall short of the mineral export bans that China imposed on the US in December, which included gallium, germanium, antimony, and so-called superhard materials.

Some of the newly imposed controls are expected to have minimal impact on US industries. For instance, the United States is a major producer of molybdenum, a metal used to strengthen steel and reduce corrosion, and relies on negligible imports of it from China, according to the latest data from the US Geological Survey (USGS).

Additionally, US tariffs on indium and tungsten — set at 25% since last year — have already driven American importers to diversify their supply chains. Over the past four years, less than 10% of US indium imports have come from China, with South Korea, Japan, and Canada emerging as key suppliers, according to the USGS.

Still, vulnerabilities remain. The US ceased mining tungsten, a mineral critical for alloys and specialty steels, in 2015 and has not produced refined bismuth since 1997, relying entirely on imports for both materials.

Despite a declining share of tungsten imports from China, the country remains the primary supplier, making any sudden disruptions potentially damaging to US industries reliant on this resource.

Counter tariffs

China’s finance ministry also announced additional tariffs on US goods. Starting February 10, the country will impose a 15% duty on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and raise tariffs by 10% on American crude oil, agricultural equipment, and certain cars.

President Trump, now in his second term, recently directed his administration to investigate China’s adherence to a trade deal reached during his first presidency in 2020. Economists note that the final results of this review, expected by April 1, could pave the way for further tariff measures.

In his first term in 2018, Trump launched a fierce two-year trade war with China, targeting its significant trade surplus with the US through tit-for-tat tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in goods. The conflict disrupted global supply chains and strained the world economy.

In 2020, China agreed to purchase an additional $200 billion in US goods annually to end the trade war. However, the covid-19 pandemic derailed the agreement, and China’s trade deficit with the US grew to $361 billion last year, according to the country’s customs data released in December.

China’s Critical Mineral Export Curbs Could Upend Market

By Irina Slav - Feb 04, 2025, 

China announced curbs on the exports of three critical minerals in December 2024.

China looks to curb lithium battery tech exports as a retaliatory measure to U.S. trade policy.

Beijing’s export restriction move only highlights China’s already well-known dominance in transition technology and the rest of the world’s near complete reliance on it for this technology.

In early December, China announced curbs on the exports of three critical minerals, including antimony, gallium, germanium, and several other minerals, to the United States. The price of these minerals soared, especially in antimony, which is a key ingredient in semiconductors and weapons. Now, China is reportedly planning to do the same to lithium battery tech exports, which could completely upend the critical minerals market.

The United States is the primary target of these limits as President Trump hardens the tariff rhetoric—and action—on both U.S. neighbors and China. In his latest squeeze on major trade partners, Trump threatened to impose 25% import tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products, which got most of the media attention. Yet he also imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports to make his point about the U.S. being shortchanged on trade.

In this context, China’s bans, although chronologically preceding the Trump tariffs, are a retaliatory measure to U.S. trade policy. In a more specific context, however, the context of the energy transition, Beijing’s export restriction move only highlights China’s already well-known dominance in transition technology and the rest of the world’s near complete reliance on it for this technology. When it comes to the transition, in other words, China holds all the cards.

Recent antimony price developments are a case in point. When China announced it would curb exports of the critical mineral, antimony prices surged to all-time highs, ending 2024 at $40,000 per ton for a total annual rise of a whopping 250%. “We have already sold some small quantities for $40,000,” a metals trader from Europe told Reuters at the time. “Non-Chinese sellers...will charge more to maximize profits.”

The problem is that it’s not just antimony that is being restricted. Indeed, an Argus senior analyst told the South China Morning Post last month that “There is a risk that China might expand its export restrictions on critical materials in the near term.” Ellie Saklatvala also told the SCMP that “In the short term, it will be very difficult for the US to significantly reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals – it usually takes many years and huge investments to develop new supply sources.”

That last comment sums up the challenges lying ahead for the United States and, to a much larger extent, Europe in securing enough critical minerals for the energy transition and balancing this priority with its foreign policy objectives, which seem to focus on containing China’s global influence. That would certainly be a tough act, and it is an act that the United States no longer has to try and master—because Trump has essentially pulled the brakes on the whole transition push.

Yet even without the energy transition as a top priority, the U.S. still needs critical minerals for its tech and defense industries—and China knows this well, which is precisely why it is curbing exports. And there is nothing importers can do except scramble to tap the limited pool of non-Chinese supplies. A further complication arose just this month when the U.S. president imposed those tariffs on Canada—which also produces critical minerals.

Indeed, analysts were quick to point out that Canada could use its mining industry as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations with Trump because it either already mines or at least has resources of 16 out of 50 critical minerals that would come in handy as alternatives to Chinese supply, including germanium and gallium.

Meanwhile, the issue with critical mineral supply is becoming increasingly urgent because China is not just curbing exports—it is doubling down on cementing its global dominance in the sector with massive ongoing investments and reserve reporting mandates for Chinese miners operating abroad.


By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 

Italian Navy and Messina Hold Exercise Practicing Boarding and Inspection

Italian Navy practices boarding another Messina vessel in a2024 exercise (Linea Messina)

Published Feb 4, 2025 5:58 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

The Italian Navy is highlighting one of its regular training exercises working with the merchant fleet. It is part of a long-term project also involving the trade association Assarmatori designed to build cooperation and familiarize the navy personnel and merchant sailors in the routine for vessel inspections.

The vessel selected for the latest exercise was the Jolly Verde of Ignazio Messina (Linea Messina). Built in 2007 and previously operating under charter to MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, the containership became the largest vessel in the Messina fleet when she was acquired in April 2024.  The vessel which is 80,000 dwt is 928 feet (283 meters) in length and has a capacity for 6,300 TEU. She operates with a crew of 22.

Jolly Verde was sailing in the Eastern Mediterranean yesterday, February 3, from Spain to the Suez Canal.  Messina reported when they acquired the ship last year that it would be deployed on a route to the Middle East and India. The exercise involved the Italian frigate Alpino.

The trade association reports initially, radio contact was established between the Italian frigate and the merchant ship, with the Command of the military unit declaring its intentions and requesting the commander to proceed with the boarding of the inspection teams. The military reached the containership to inspect it, verifying the regularity of the ship and cargo documents before permitting it to resume regular navigation.

“Exercises of this kind are now taking place frequently and their success testifies to the high level of collaboration achieved between the Navy, our association, and the shipping companies,” said Stefano Messina, President of Assarmatori. “A particularly valuable relationship,” he noted is formed with a view to guaranteeing crews high safety standards and protecting cargo and traffic even on potentially risky routes. He notes currently it is, “a difficult and highly challenging historical period.”

They note the exercise gives the navy team practice at boarding a vessel. For the merchant ship, it provides the opportunity to understand the procedure and how to interact with the navy during an inspection.

The Italian Navy has participated in the recent NATO efforts to ensure the safety of merchant ships sailing both in the Gulf of Guinea and off the Horn of Africa. The exercises which take place every few months focus on elements such as boarding, inspection, and intervention during incidents of piracy.

 

Video: Singapore Deploys Autonomous, Remotely-Controlled Patrol Boats

Singapore's new fleet of romote-controlled, autonomous patrols boats have begun patrols (Singapore Navy)

Published Feb 4, 2025 1:48 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

The efforts to monitor and protect shipping around Singapore, one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, have gained a new remotely-controlled, autonomous patrol boat. The Singapore Navy put its new autonomous boats on display with a demonstration of its capabilities as it began patrols in the harbor.

The Marsec USV was designed and built in Singapore using the latest in automation and AI technology. The Straits Times newspaper witnessed the demonstration while the Navy also posted a video about the crafts online.

According to the report, three of the vessels have begun patrols and a fourth will be added later in the year. Each is 17 meters (approximately 56 feet) and 30 tonnes. They are powered by two diesel engines using water jets which give the patrol boats a top speed of over 25 knots. They can carry a 20-foot container or its equivalent, and they are designed for continuous operations of up to 36 hours.

 

 

Operations are overseen from a shoreside control station, but the vessels also incorporate a high level of autonomy in managing their navigation. They are outfitted with collision detection and avoidance systems employing a series of sensors, radar, and cameras. The video feed also provides a 360-degree perspective for the operators.

Each of the vessels is outfitted with a range of capabilities for their monitoring and enforcement roles. They have long-range acoustic devices, sirens, and speakers to issue voice commands. They also have a stabilized, remotely operated machine gun and a laser system to disorient perpetrators.

The vessels were deployed in 2025 after over 1,000 hours of testing. The Straits Times reports Navy officers said during the briefing that they conducted manned trials, but the operators never needed to intervene during the trials. 

In addition to its current role in monitoring, the Navy reports it is looking at additional missions for the vessels. This could include mine detection or deploying countermeasures.

 

Trump Plans to Restore "Maximum Pressure" Sanctions on Iranian Oil

File image courtesy NITC

Published Feb 4, 2025 2:35 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced plans to strengthen restrictions on Iranian oil exports, which have been sanctioned by the United States since President Trump's first term (with varying degrees of enforcement since). An official told Reuters that Trump will soon sign a memorandum instructing the Department of the Treasury to maximize pressure on Iran's energy exports. 

An estimated 150 tankers are engaged in the "dark fleet" trade of Iranian oil, which is almost exclusively sold to Chinese customers. Much of the cargo is transshipped between tankers at anchorages in Southeast Asia, putting a veneer on its origins before final-mile delivery. The trade is tracked in detail by commodity market intelligence firms and vetting agencies like TankerTrackers.com, along with the advocacy group United for a Nuclear Iran (UANI), and has been well documented in the media.

Despite occasional high-profile accidents, Iran has had little difficulty in evading U.S. sanctions and arranging tonnage for its export sales. In November it sold an estimated 1.8 million barrels per day - two percent of all global production, shipped almost exclusively to Chinese buyers. Its output is higher now than at any point since the imposition of "snap back" sanctions in 2018, and brought in more than $50 billion in sales last year. 

Oil and gas account for an estimated 25 percent of Iran's government revenue, and the funding is essential to Iranian military ambitions. Iran is the primary backer of Yemen's Houthi rebel group, which repeatedly attacked foreign shipping in the Red Sea last year, and Tehran also provides critical support to Lebanese Islamist militia Hezbollah. 

Trump's National Security Advisor Mike Walz has advocated encouraging Beijing to shut down Iranian oil imports, clamping down on the trade on the demand side. On the supply side, a U.S. official told Reuters on Tuesday that the Trump White House wants to reinstitute "maximum pressure" on Iran's oil trade to drive its energy exports down to zero.

The White House is focused on impeding Iran's nuclear program. After Israel's retaliatory airstrikes destroyed Iranian air defense and missile production sites last October, the Iranian government quickly ramped up its uranium enrichment program to make more 60-percent-purity uranium-235. This grade has few civilian uses, and is considered a jumping-off point for manufacturing weapons grade uranium-235. Iran denies any interest in procuring nuclear weapons, though it has invested heavily in nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.

Crude oil prices immediately jumped in response to news that the globally-traded oil supply could drop. WTI rallied by $2 to reverse an earlier slide, and Brent gained 0.6 percent. U.S. export-grade Louisiana Light - which could serve Chinese refiners as a substitute for sanctioned Iranian Light - rose by 1.4 percent.

RBOB wholesale gasoline futures (an index of investor expectations for future gas prices) rose about two percent following the news of tightened sanctions enforcement. 

Oil Prices Spike As Markets Digest Trump’s

Iran Crackdown

By Julianne Geiger - Feb 04, 2025, 

Oil prices took a sharp turn today as traders weighed President Trump’s latest “maximum pressure” push against Iran. Brent crude rose to $76.34 per barrel (+0.50%), while WTI’s loss from early in the day shrunk to just a 0.31% dropoff at $72.93 per barrel.

While a quick glance at today’s oil prices could suggest traders aren’t convinced just yet that the Iran situation could have a profound effect, oil prices are indeed on the rise from their earlier downward trend—a rather quick turn, in fact.

Trump’s plan? Squeeze Iran’s oil exports down to zero—a bold move considering Iran still ships as much as 1.3 million barrels per day, mostly to China. The White House’s playbook includes fresh sanctions, tighter enforcement, and rolling back existing waivers. Translation: If the administration makes good on these threats, global supply could tighten overnight.

The last time Trump went all-in on Iranian sanctions, oil prices spiked north of $80. The market remembers. This time, with Middle East tensions already simmering and OPEC+ struggling to maintain discipline, the upside risk is real.

Of course, oil traders are a cynical bunch. They’ve seen this movie before. Crude flows tend to find a way—whether through shady ship-to-ship transfers or creative bookkeeping in Beijing. But if Washington actually gets aggressive with enforcement (hello, secondary sanctions), even China’s appetite for cheap Iranian crude might take a hit. That’s when Brent could break out.

For now, the market is playing it cool. But don’t be surprised if crude traders wake up tomorrow and suddenly decide that cutting off a key OPEC producer is, in fact, a big deal.

Crude prices were trading down prior to the announcement after China responded to US tariffs on China. WTI was down nearly 3% earlier in the day, with Brent down almost 2%.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

Changes in Oil Trading Raise Doubts About SPOT Terminal

The proposed SPOT platform (illustration courtesy Enterprise Products Partners)

Published Feb 4, 2025 4:24 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

A lack of customer interest and a delay in permitting have created doubt about the future of Enterprise Products Partners' Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), a deepwater tanker loading facility off the Texas coast.

If built, Enterprise's SPOT would be the largest offshore terminal in the United States, bigger even than the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP). It would add two million barrels per day to U.S. export capacity, an increase of about 50 percent. 

Last year, Enterprise had positive news to report about SPOT. After years of effort it received an operating license from the Maritime Administration, the only one of its kind in years. However, in an earnings call Tuesday, CEO Jim Teague said that it had encountered commercial and regulatory headwinds.

"I believe that SPOT should be the poster child for the need for permit reform. It took five years to get the SPOT license, including four years to get the record of decision," Teague said. "The process we went through due to federal bureaucracy pushed us beyond the drop-dead date. It allowed our anchor customer to opt out of their contract, which they did."

He added that the permit application totaled 30,000 pages, and that Enterprise had to answer 80,000 questions during two public comment periods, primarily from NGOs. 

SPOT was designed in 2019, when all forecasts suggested that the U.S. would soon be exporting millions of barrels a day to customers in Asia. That long-haul trade favors VLCCs for economies of scale, and SPOT was specifically intended to allow full VLCC loading in one step - a capability not found elsewhere on the U.S. Gulf Coast (except at LOOP). However, because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a larger share of U.S. oil is going to Europe to make up for sanctioned Russian volumes. That shorter transatlantic trip can be done with a smaller Suezmax or Aframax, he said, reducing the demand for VLCC loadings. 

"We have not gotten enough traction in commercializing SPOT," Teague said. "If we cannot achieve [commercial terms] within a reasonable amount of time, we will move on. This is not a 'build it and they will come' project." 

Noble Sells Off Two Relatively Young Drillships for Possible Scrapping

Pacific Meltem (Noble Drilling)

Published Feb 3, 2025 10:44 PM by The Maritime Executive

Noble Drilling has decided to decommission two relatively young, cold-stacked drillships, remnants of the idle fleet that accumulated in the Canary Islands during the offshore downturn of the mid-2010s. 

The vessels named for possible demolition sale are Pacific Meltem (built 2014) and Pacific Scirocco (built 2011), both constructed by Samsung for the former Pacific Drilling fleet. They are rated to 12,000 feet of water depth, and both are anchored at Las Palmas. 

Noble acquired Pacific Drilling in 2021, followed by Diamond Drilling in 2024. The wave of consolidation left Noble with 28 floaters, including 14 7th-generation drillships. While Meltem and Scirocco are comparatively young in ship years (11 and 14 respectively), they have been in storage for a long time; Noble has decided to divest of both in order to eliminate the cost of upkeep.

The sale will ensure the retirement of both ships from the drilling market, including the possibility of scrapping. 

"Our decision to retire these non-contributing assets is based on a continuous cost-benefit evaluation of idle capacity. These retirements will be immediately cash flow accretive and result in a leaner, fitter fleet composition for Noble going forward," said Robert W. Eifler, President and CEO of Noble. 

 

Tanker Targeted by Houthis Returns to Suez as Canal Seeks More Traffic

Chrysalis returned to the Suez Canal eight months after being attacked by the Houthis (SCA)

Published Feb 4, 2025 12:54 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

The Suez Canal Authority is increasing its efforts to rebuild traffic through the canal highlighting the return to stability in the region. Yesterday, February 3, a tanker targeted by the Houthis eight months ago made its first transit reports the authority as part of its marketing campaign.

The Houthis announced they would honor the Gaza cease-fire reached last month and suspended their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. While many of the major shipping lines have taken a wait-and-see attitude stressing their focus on security the Suez Canal Authority is anxious to restore traffic.

The Suez Canal is a major source of revenue for Egypt. Reuters is citing a comment from Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi saying the diversions of ships from the canal cost Egypt around $7 billion in revenues in 2024.

The tanker Chrysalis (115,867 dwt) made the transit only with ballast on February 3 traveling from Seka, India to the Sidi Kerir oil terminal in Alexandria, Egypt. It was an important moment for the Suez Canal Authority as in July 2024 the Houthis had claimed to heavily damaged the vessel due to its association with Israel. The tanker built in 2010 in South Korea is registered in Liberia and reported to be owned by Turkish interests. 

The Houthis claimed to have launched missiles targeting the tanker on July 12, 2024, while it was entering the Red Sea. Later as it transited the Bab el-Mandeb, they reportedly launched drones for a second attack on the tanker.

 

Additional lanes for two-way traffic recently opened in the southern reaches of the Suez Canal (SCA)

 

The Suez Canal Authority used the transit to emphasize its messages of the higher cost and increased fuel use to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. They also pointed to the lack of necessary navigation support services for vessels on the route around Africa.

The messages were also part of the authority’s presentation during a conference in Oman and last week when the Chairman and Managing Director of the Suez Canal Authority Admiral Ossama Rabiee met with representatives of the major shipping companies and agencies in Egypt. The authority highlighted that 23 companies participated in the meeting to discuss “the impact of the return of relative stability in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandab.”

The authority emphasized that it has continued to pursue enhancements while vessels were diverting. This includes the recent opening of the additional two-lane traffic in the southern sections of the canal as well as deepening sections of the waterway from 66 to 72 feet. The additional sections of the canal they report will permit six to eight additional vessels to make the transit each day while the improvements to the waterway are increasing navigation safety and reducing the impact of water and air currents.

Rabiee told the shipping company representatives that the authority was “keen on keeping its flexibility by maintaining its pre-crisis transit pricing policies.” He said it would be extending its rebate programs to support shipping’s return to the Suez Canal. They also highlighted the addition of new services to support shipping. This includes salvage services, water ambulances, pollution control, and expanding the maintenance and bunkering services.