His Majesty Requests

His Majesty the RH Stevie Harper the First requests the presence of Canada's First Ministers,at 24 Sussex, two years after getting elected and with no consideration for the Premiers own First Ministers Conference.

Harper has summoned Canada’s premiers and territorial leaders to his official residence at 24 Sussex Drive Friday night. Harper’s office said the meeting is part of the ongoing discussions that the prime minister maintains with first ministers.

Right ongoing discussions...uh huh... what by email and phone, certainly there has been no FORMAL meeting between the PM and the Premiers since his election in 2006. Despite their demands for one. So much for Harpers much touted new, open, accountable, federalism.

Premiers left out in the cold

The Gazette

Published: 12 hours ago

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has made it his policy to have as little as possible to do with reporters, seems to have taken the same position about the premiers.

His office announced last week that Harper will meet the provincial and territorial leaders over dinner at 24 Sussex Drive this Friday night. It's easy to imagine Harper starting to yawn and stretch just as the dessert dishes are cleared, saying "well, guys, it's been a long week ..."

The premiers, and especially Ontario's Dalton McGuinty and our own Jean Charest, have been asking for months for a meeting with Harper.

In recent decades, first ministers' meetings became frequent and an accepted part of Canadian governance, almost a separate level of government.

But the newly-elected Harper had one such a meeting in February 2006, also on a Friday night, and hasn't convened the group since.

It's almost as if he considered the premiers to be a bunch of poor relations who have nothing to offer except begging and grumbling.

And he is only calling the meeting now because of the perceived downturn in the Canadian economy. Daddy is going to tell the kids that it's belt tightening time again. Since the Harper believes in reducing federal interference in provincial affairs, the coming recession will have to be shouldered by the provinces on their own. Watch for it.

It was never clear how much a first ministers meeting on the slowing economy could accomplish. But the Prime Minister has gone out of his way to diminish the prospect of results at this Friday's gathering, and has ensured minimal coverage of the event with his offbeat scheduling. In a two-page letter written to the premiers and obtained by The Globe and Mail, Stephen Harper outlines plans for a four-hour discussion on Jan. 11 at his Ottawa residence, from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m.

But what Harper and David Dodge believe is a coming crisis for the loonie and the Canadian economy due to the American recession may not be the economic reality. After all as G.B.Shaw once said; "If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion. "

Loonie's rise may continue in '08, say experts

Even a 12-per-cent depreciation in the U.S. dollar, if it were sudden and disorderly, would hurt Canadian exporters directly, who would be paid in a deeply depreciated currency for many of their products, which are priced in U.S. dollars, and it would hit Canada's economy indirectly through a serious contraction in the U.S. economy, Canada's primary export market.

It would take a concerted effort by the world's major central banks to deal with such a crisis, Iacobacci says.

The problem is that they don't appear to have a strategy for dealing with such a crisis, he adds.

"You need to prepare in advance," he says, suggesting the central banks need to determine in advance what amount of support for the currency would be needed in and how it would be delivered.

But even if a run on the U.S. dollar is not be in the cards, a further appreciation in the Canadian dollar may be.

"I'm back to being quite bullish on the Canadian dollar," says Dennis Gartman, U.S. author of the influential financial newsletter that bears his name and is read by traders around the world.

Gartman, who two years ago predicted the loonie would reach parity with the U.S. greenback, says the Canadian dollar is poised to rise even further, but on its own merits, and not because of a run on the greenback, which he suspects is already oversold on world exchange markets.

"It's time once again to say the major trend is in favour of the Canadian dollar to rise, and not just relative to the U.S. dollar, but to rise even more relative to the euro," he says.

In fact he expects the loonie will be one of the strongest performing currencies this year.

"Has anything changed fundamentally that was driving the Canadian dollar higher relative to the euro and the U.S. dollar? The answer is no," he says. "Canada has the things that the rest of the world needs."

"You've got wheat, you've got canola, you've got base metals, precious metals, and most importantly you've got energy," he notes, adding Canada also has water, suggesting that over time that will become an increasingly precious commodity.

While Gartman won't make a prediction on how high the loonie will go, he "bet it makes a new high relative to the U.S. dollar ... ."

"I think we'll see Canada versus U.S. dollars higher than the best levels that were seen in November," he says, indicating it will at least top the $1.10 US, breached in 2007, and set a record high against the euro as well.

However, he also expects the Canadian currency will eventually retreat back to parity against the greenback.

There are others who predict the loonie's retreat will come sooner and go further.

The federal export promotion agency, in its latest forecast says: "We expect to see it below 90 cents US by the end of 2008. "

The reason is that a global economic slowdown will ease demand for Canadian export commodities and in turn reduce the speculation, that drove the loonie to new highs in 2007, it says.

SEE:

Loonie Beats Dollar Benefits Who

Loonie Flashback

If It Ain't Broke

Harper The Autocrat

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David Dodge World Bank Nominee

Is David Dodge, the outgoing Governor of the Bank of Canada, bucking for Presidency of the World Bank? Seems like it....

Dodge, who retires in January and has said he wants half a year off after that, declined to say today if he's interested in the job.

- Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said China's government can't be expected to let the market set its currency's foreign-exchange rate ``overnight.''

``They have to keep going, and they have to keep going pretty rapidly,'' Dodge told reporters today after a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. ``But let's not expect everything to be done overnight.''

In his remarks, Dodge said that the world's most developed nations need to have ``some tolerance'' as long as countries such as China are making ``substantial progress'' in shifting toward flexible exchange rates. Some economies don't have financial markets that are developed enough to withstand an immediate move to prices set in markets, he said.

Dodge's remarks are more measured than those of U.S. officials, who demanded last week that China move more quickly on loosening its management of the yuan. The People's Bank of China on May 18 increased the amount that the currency can move each day. U.S. Treasury officials and lawmakers said China must use that increased flexibility to allow its exchange rate to climb.

Chinese officials ``understand that it's not to satisfy the Americans or the Europeans and Canadians, they need to do it for their own domestic growth,'' to move on the yuan, Dodge said.

In his speech, Dodge urged the Group of Seven industrialized nations, especially the U.S., to pursue changes at the International Monetary Fund so it can more effectively combat world trade imbalances.

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Dodge Defends Defined Benefit Pension Plans

And why would Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge say such nice things about Defined Benefit Pension Plans? After years of the right wing attacking these plans in favour of defined contribution plans; RRSP's. Because they are the real source of capital investment for P3's

Because they generate more capital, faster, and thus can be used for investment purposes. In other words because OMERS, Ontario Teachers Pension Fund, CPP, the new Alberta AIM fund, all of them are now major contributors to the economy as investment funds, which are creating a new form of P3; public pension partnerships.

Once these public sector pension funds were freed from state restrictions in investing they have created a trillion dollar investment market. Further this has allowed the state to benefit by not paying its share. Thus giving the government of Canada more surpluses, along with their looting of EI.

While the private sector imitated the Government in failing to invest their required amount in their defined pension funds, leading them to funding crisis much as the Alberta Government faced a decade ago with its public sector pension funds. Which it attempted to privatize (put it under self governance) but once they discovered that allowing them to invest in the market made them profitable and they paid off their debt they gave that idea up. Today a decade later they finally discover what OMERS and the Ontario Teachers Fund have been so successful doing, becoming private venture capital funds, and created the new AIM Fund.

In the private sector we have seen the same Peter Pocklington style use of workers pension funds to bail out the corporation. Pocklington purchased Gainers in Edmonton to access not only the business capital but the unionized workers pension funds to bail out his other businesses, like the Oilers, in a barely legal ponzi scheme that saw him bankrupt both and leave the city in disgrace.

When pension fund bail outs have been successful in the private sector it has been because the company was Canadian, unionized, and formerly a crown corporation like Air Canada.

Where they have failed has been in the U.S. such as in the case of Delphi, where the unionized workers pension funds are looted when the company uses their failure to invest in them as an excuse to declare bankruptcy and hand over their pension responsibilities to the U.S. government in a perverse appeal to state capitalism to bail them out.

This is the reason that both the Canadian and American governments want workers to work longer, so as to have more liquidity in the CPP in Canada and Social Security in the U.S. Conservatives Want You To Work Longer

I am reproducing these articles because they are the most informative and because they will eventually disappear behind locked subscription walls.

And while Dodge says nice things about Defined Benefit Plans he also wants to deregulate them, including allowing employers to retain their surpluses, which shortchanges worker, something a former Liberal PM benefited from.

Making private pensions stronger

Dodge says defined-benefit plans way to go, with changes to improve them

By JULIAN BELTRAME The Canadian Press

OTTAWA— Bank of Canada governor David Dodge is calling for changes to Canada’s private pension plan system, and a swing back to defined-benefit plans, to ensure it produces the best results for employees and the economy.

Private plans have been under pressure in Canada for several years, with many company pensions running huge shortfalls because of future liabilities.

A survey of chief financial officers, released Thursday by the Conference Board of Canada, found that two-thirds believe there is still a pension crisis in Canada. But the number who feel the crisis will be long-lasting has declined to 48 per cent from 61 per cent last year, the survey of 141 corporate executives found.

In a speech Thursday at a Toronto pension summit, Dodge proposed six changes he said would give employers more incentives to offer workers the most desirable form of pension — those that pay predictable, defined benefits on retirement.

Private pensions are important both to the employee who receives them and the employer hoping to attract and retain the best available staff, he said. They are also important for the economy as a whole, he added.

"As a central banker, I know that a sound pension system is important from the perspective of economic and financial market efficiency," Dodge said.

But while he mostly praised Canada’s legal and regulatory framework governing private pensions, Dodge said there are several shortcomings that should be addressed to strengthen the system.

Those shortcomings are increasing the risks to employees and preventing the plans from functioning at maximum capacity, he said.

As a result, Dodge said employers "have been scaling back or restricting new entries into these types of plans, largely because they do not have the right incentives to maintain and operate defined-benefit plans."

Many have been converting to defined-contribution plans instead as they are usually easier to budget for.

One drawback to the current system is that when pension plans run a surplus, federal and provincial laws increasingly have given employees the right to those surpluses even though it is the employer that bears the risk of default.

He added that tax regulations perversely discourage pension managers from building a surplus above 10 per cent, even though such surpluses are desirable and useful in offsetting periods of deficits.

Dodge said many employees miss out on the opportunity to be protected by private pension plans because they work for companies that are too small to afford them.

"But risks can be mitigated by sponsors forming multi-employer plans, thus pooling risks across a number of plan sponsors," he argued.

"If structures such as large multi-employer pension plans could be created, this would help them to pool both costs and risks, making it easier for smaller employers to sponsor defined-benefit plans."

He noted that municipalities in Ontario have done exactly that in forming OMERS, the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, so there should be away to explore that avenue for private-sector employers.

Among other concerns noted by the central banker were increasing flexibility to deal with actuarial deficits and making sure accounting rules don’t introduce unnecessary volatility to employers’ balance sheets.

"Ultimately, Canada can have a better-managed system that is good for members, good for employers, good for the economy and good for Canadian society," he said.

Bank of Canada calls for private pension plan reforms

Governor Dodge wants clarity. Suggests giving plan sponsors more flexibility to cover pension fund shortfalls

ERIC BEAUCHESNE,

CanWest News Service

Published: Friday, May 11, 2007

Bank of Canada governor David Dodge is calling for widespread reforms to deal with the country's private pension fund crisis, including the elimination of tax penalties and other rules that discourage employers from building up pension fund surpluses, as well as a greater awareness among employees of the risks and costs of enriching their retirement benefits.

"First, we should reduce the disincentives for sponsors to run actuarial surpluses in good times that will offset actuarial deficits in other periods," Dodge told a pension conference in Toronto yesterday. "More clarity regarding legal ownership of surpluses is needed, so that the sponsor that owns the risks also owns the benefits from taking those risks."

Dodge focused on measures that would make defined benefit plans - seen as superior to defined contribution plans but which employers have been abandoning as too risky - more viable.

Generally, in defined benefit plans, employers guarantee employees a pre-set level of benefits, while in defined contribution plans the employees bear the risk as the level of their benefits is based on the investment returns the plan earns.

"An effective defined benefit pension system is a tremendous asset for individuals, for employers and for our society as a whole," Dodge said. "Putting these plans on a sustainable footing involves strengthening the legal, regulatory, accounting, actuarial and economic frameworks."

Dodge suggested that defined benefit fund surpluses should belong to employers because they face the risk of having to cover any shortfall, and that existing tax penalties on fund surpluses should be eased.

"Given the significance of our pension system, policymakers in Canada need to keep working on improving its operation," Dodge told the pension conference.

His comments follow reports that the worst of the recent pension crisis has eased, thanks to healthy returns in the stock market and extra payments by employers to cover pension fund shortfalls.

Dodge suggested giving plan sponsors more flexibility to cover pension fund shortfalls, and letting smaller companies pool costs and risks to form multi-employer defined benefit pension plans.

The governor also called for greater sharing between employers and employees of the costs to pension funds from increases in longevity, and that the costs and risks of any enriching of plan benefits be made clear to both corporate shareholders and workers.

"These changes would give sponsors the appropriate degree of flexibility needed to manage risk effectively," Dodge said. "Ultimately, Canada can have a better-managed pension system that is good for members, good for employers, good for the economy and good for Canadian society."

While Dodge noted that the benefits of pension plans to workers are obvious, he said they also are good for employers and society.

© The Gazette (Montreal) 2007

FULL TEXT-Speech by Bank of Canada Governor

TORONTO, May 10 (Reuters) - The following is the prepared text of a speech by Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge to be delivered on Thursday to the Conference Board of Canada's 2007 Pensions Summit.

A Sound Pension System - Handling Risk Appropriately Good afternoon. I'm happy to be here to talk about the importance of Canada's pension system. It goes without saying that a sound system of private pensions is important from the perspective of pensioners who rely on a given plan for their retirement income. For firms, a pension plan can help to attract and retain staff, and so the business community also counts on a sound pension system. And as a central banker, I know that a sound pension system is important from the perspective of economic and financial market efficiency. Given the significance of our pension system, policy-makers in Canada need to keep working on improving its operation. Ultimately, it is crucial for all Canadians that our pension system function as well as possible. But what is it that makes a system of private pensions function well, or not? As I see it, a key to answering this question is understanding how pension plans deal with risk, in all of its many forms. So today, I want to spend some time discussing private pensions and risk, and suggest what needs to be done to make sure that those who have to bear risk also have the right incentives to deal with it in the most appropriate manner. I will focus on who is best placed to bear risk, and on how risk management can be better supported. Risks and Challenges Let me start with a fundamental question: Why do people save for their old age? Essentially, people save during their working years so they can retire at some point and not suffer a precipitous drop in income and living standards. Economists might put it somewhat less elegantly, saying that people save in order to smooth their lifetime consumption. In the absence of any kind of pension system, individuals, businesses, and society as a whole would all face a number of challenges and risks. I want to spend a few minutes talking about the challenges and risks from these three perspectives, beginning with individuals. First, individuals without a pension plan would have their personal savings as their only source of retirement income, aside from income from the publicly funded Canada Pension Plan/Quebec Pension Plan and the Old Age Security/Guaranteed Income Supplement. And so, individuals would naturally be exceedingly cautious with their investments, particularly as they approached retirement age. In short, individuals without pensions would likely be too risk-averse with their savings to generate a sufficient rate of investment return. Second, individuals can recognize that they lack the expertise to handle their investments in the most effective way, and so will try to acquire this expertise. This could come by way of an investment adviser, or by investing their savings in managed, diversified retail investment vehicles such as mutual funds. The challenge posed by this approach is that it can be costly, since individuals outside a pension plan have to purchase investment advice and ongoing funds management retail, not wholesale. Third, individuals without a pension plan face market risk in a couple of ways. Market conditions could be such that at the time of retirement, the value of their assets could be abnormally low. Or interest rates could be abnormally low at the time of retirement. In either case, the person would need to spend a much greater amount to purchase an annuity or other guaranteed stream of income compared with a period when market conditions were more favourable. The fourth point is related to the third. Sellers of annuities have to deal with the risk that those individuals who expect to live much longer than actuarial tables would suggest are the ones who buy annuities. To deal with this adverse selection problem, sellers compensate for the risk by charging significantly more for the annuity. In other words, the cost of an annuity is much greater for an individual than it is for members of a group. Both of these last two points demonstrate that without a pension system, individuals would need significantly higher levels of savings to ensure adequate funding for their retirement. And all of these points I raised demonstrate that pensions generate enormous benefits by making it much simpler for individuals to successfully save for retirement. But while the benefits of pension plans are obvious for individuals, let's not lose sight of the benefits for businesses and for society as a whole. From the perspective of business, pension plans are typically thought of as a recruitment and retention tool. But historically, pensions were also the way that good employers helped workers to save so that they could avoid penury in old age. And with a pension plan, older workers had the ability to retire, and thus did not need to keep working well beyond the point of their greatest productivity. As for society as a whole, pensions provide a couple of important benefits. First, no society wants to see large numbers of its senior citizens relying entirely on government transfers, although there is fairly universal agreement across most countries that it is desirable to have some degree of public income support for people in their old age. Beyond that, however, a well-functioning pension system is an important source of the long-term risk capital that is essential to finance growth. Mitigating Risks: Defined-Contribution Plans Most of the challenges and risks I've mentioned can be mitigated, to a greater or lesser extent, through the pooling effect that a pension plan provides. Of course, different kinds of pension plans deal with risks in different ways. First, let me briefly discuss defined-contribution plans and the way they deal with risks. A defined-contribution plan mitigates, at least partially, many of the challenges and risks I mentioned for individuals. For example, the costs of funds management and investment advice are pooled. Further, pooling helps to mitigate the risk that individuals will not have saved enough to purchase an appropriate annuity.

Most execs see a pension crisis

Fewer fear it will be long lasting

ERIC BEAUCHESNE, CanWest News Service

Published: Thursday, May 10, 2007

Nearly two-thirds of senior executives believe Canada still has a corporate pension funding crisis but a lot fewer fear it will be long-lasting, according to a survey to be released Thursday at a pension conference in Toronto.

The percentage of chief financial officers who feel the pension crisis will be long-lasting has slipped below half to 48 per cent this year from 61 per cent last year, and the proportion of senior human resource executives who see it as long-lasting has fallen to 40 per cent from 67 per cent, the survey found.

The results are being released at a Conference Board of Canada pensions summit in Toronto at which Bank of Canada governor David Dodge will give his perspective of how to manage pension risks.

"Compared to one year ago, the sense of crisis appears to be abating, but chief financial officers are still concerned about both the volatility and the current level of pension expense," said Gilles Rheaume, the board's vice-president public policy. "In an environment of labour shortages, pensions ... are considered a very valuable recruitment and retention tool." The lower level of concern likely reflects better investment returns and shrinking funding deficits, added Ian Markham, a pension specialist with Watson Wyatt, which conducted the survey of 141 employers.

However, he noted that employers are still pursuing reforms in both pension fund investment strategies and the design of pension plans.

Forty-one per cent of employers with a defined benefit plan, seen as the most attractive plan for attracting and retaining employees, indicated that they had made some reforms over the last two years or were planning to do so over the coming year.

Among private sector employers, the most common reform has been to convert to a defined contribution plan, under which the level of pension payments is determined by investment returns, from a defined benefit plan, under which an employer must make up any shortfall in a fund to cover the cost of paying an agreed upon level of benefits.

That's despite the fact that employers strongly agree that a defined benefit plan is more attractive when trying to recruit or keep employees, the report noted.

Firms jettison defined-benefit pension plans

Shift means many will work longer

May 10, 2007 04:30 AM

James Daw

Traditional pensions continue to slip from workers' grasps.

A third of the 45 public companies polled in a new survey will soon have stripped benefit guarantees out of pension entitlements that new and existing employees will earn in future.

In the face of a new era of low investment returns and rising obligations, more pension providers are aiming to limit contributions to a fixed percentage of pay.

Affected employees could face having to work longer – if their health and skills allow – or deal with a lower standard of living in retirement, a senior actuary warns.

The trend that began in the early 1990s is gaining momentum, just as an Ontario commission searches for a survival and expansion plan for pension plans that have defined benefits.

Ian Markham, an adviser to the Ontario Expert Commission on Pensions, says the number of workers who have lost pensions with defined benefits for each year of service may be more than official figures recognize.

Statistics Canada estimates about 83 per cent of the two million pension-plan members in Ontario still have defined benefits.

Most of the members are in the public sector.

But the agency has a great deal of difficulty dealing with private-sector employers that will pay benefits based on service up to a certain year, but in future will make a fixed level of contributions for each dollar earned.

"How do we categorize that?" asks Markham.

Results of the new survey, by the Conference Board of Canada and Watson Wyatt Worldwide, where Markham is a consulting actuary, are to be presented today at a pensions summit in Toronto.

An early release was provided to the Toronto Star.

Key findings are that about 18 per cent of the 45 public companies polled across Canada have swung in the past two years to defined-contribution plans for future service.

Another 15 per cent said they will follow in the next year, while 5 per cent have or will get rid of defined benefits entirely.

Most said they were moving away from guaranteeing a certain benefit based on years of work and salary in order to avoid fluctuations in contribution requirements and to cut costs.

More than 60 per cent of public and private companies said they are making extra payments to eliminate funding shortfalls, which are anotther type of risk for employees if their employer fails.

Few of those employers (16 per cent) pay more into their plans than the minimum legal requirement.

Two-thirds of respondents think pension funding is in crisis, but the percentage who think it will last for many years has fallen to 48 per cent from 61 in 2006.

Many companies see the move away from defined benefits as a financial necessity, but most employers with the cheaper defined-contribution plans worry retirement benefits won't be adequate.

These lesser plans may thus make it difficult to recruit and retain top talent, or to ease out unproductive workers. The national unemployment rate is down to about 6.1 per cent, and a growing number of baby boomers will soon reach the age of retirement.

Public-sector plans are moving to increase both employee and employer contributions, while private-sector companies are increasingly shifting risk to employees.

Markham said that a 30-year-old worker five years ago might earn a pension equal to 54 per cent of pay by age 65 if he or she and an employer each contributed 5 per cent of pay to a defined-contribution pension plan.

But the outlook for returns on all forms of investment is now significantly lower because interest rates on long-term bonds are low all around the world. On the flip side, the cost of life annuities is much higher.

So, the same combined level of contributions (10 per cent of pay) might replace only 38 per cent of pay at age 65 (excluding government benefits).

To get back to a 54 per cent rate of replacement, contributions might have to rise more than 40 per cent, or the person would have to work years longer.

Markham said he doubts many employers, let alone employees, realize the impact of lower interest rates on prospects for retirement. Other research suggests most employees are ill-equipped to invest their retirement savings, and the available investment options are more costly and less well managed than defined pension plans.

The commission on pensions in Ontario, headed by labour-law expert Harry Arthurs, has until next summer to report.

A discussion paper on the Web at pensionreview.on.ca asks for suggestions about a number of questions, including how to make defined-benefit plans less costly, and surplus funds or contingency reserves less a bone of contention.

Director of research Robert Brown said at a pension conference yesterday that 20 research papers have been commissioned. Public hearings are to be held in six cities, starting in Toronto Oct. 15, the deadline for making written submissions.

See

The Importance of Savings

Your Pension Dollars At Work

P3= Public Pension Partnerships

Chinese Social Security Scandal

Social Insecurity The Phony Pension Crisis

Pension Plunder

Labour Is Capital

Pension Free China

Kids Are Commodities

Workers vs Worker

Air Canada Profits From Bankruptcy

Are Income Trusts A Ponzi Scheme

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If It Ain't Broke

Don't fix it...See Forward To The Past

Dollar rise has helped Canada growth, inflation: Dodge

The rise in the Canadian dollar in recent years has helped Canada maintain stable growth and inflation as commodity prices rose sharply, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said on Friday.

Dodge made no comment on the most recent spurt in the Canadian currency or on the economic outlook but extolled the virtues of a floating exchange rate, which he says can help absorb shocks without costing jobs and output.

"In recent years, the demand for and the prices of Canadian commodity exports have been rising sharply. This has helped to create an economic boom, and investment flows into Canada have increased. Our floating dollar has appreciated sharply and thus has forced some necessary adjustments," he said.

High dollar woes worth it, Dodge says

Canada converted to a floating exchange rate in the 1950s, but until about 10 years ago the Bank of Canada occasionally intervened by buying and selling dollars to smooth out sharp fluctuations.

Officials were right to cease their interventions in 1998, Dodge said, adding he has seen no exceptional circumstances since that have warranted a change in policy.

"There's absolutely no thought on our part of reversing that decision and markets I think are pretty sophisticated, pretty deep and do a pretty good job," Dodge said in response to a question from conference delegates.

Dodge conceded that the loonie's 35 per cent appreciation against the U.S. dollar since 2003 has been hard for businesses, particularly manufacturers whose exports into the United States have risen in price and hence become less competitive.

"Yes it's very tough for the manufacturers here in this city of Montreal right now. Strong global competition and an exchange rate that has appreciated very substantially but they are making those adjustments."

Earlier this week, Dodge told two separate parliamentary committees that it would be wrong to rein in the loonie because its recent rise to above 90 cents (U.S.) reflects the fundamental strength of the Canadian economy and is not due to speculation.

Returning to the theme Friday, he said the loonie's strength has helped the Canadian economy adjust to the boom in Canada's commodities producing sector as a result of sky-high global demand and prices for commodities such as oil and minerals.

Citing another example, Dodge said having a flexible exchange rate helped Canada through the 1997 Asian crisis, explaining that the loonie's sharp decline helped absorb some of the shock felt by the commodities sector when global prices plunged.

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Casino Capitalism

Betting in the marketplace....

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge also repeated a concern over a sharp reduction in the pricing of risk in financial markets, singling out the carry trade as a possible source of trouble.

The carry trade is a popular strategy that involves borrowing money in low interest rate currencies like the yen and then reinvesting in riskier emerging markets.

"One-way bets are always dangerous things," he said in response to a question about such trades.

....like betting on natural gas....

Bank of Montreal, Canada's fourth-biggest lender, said last week it will post a pretax loss of as much as C$450 million ($406 million) from trading in natural gas contracts. The bank plans to fire trader David Lee and Bob Moore, an executive managing director, over the losses, the National Post newspaper said today. The men are staying with the bank until the firm can unwind its trading positions, the paper said, citing unidentified people.

BMO said the losses are primarily from natural gas trading, while Desjardins Securities analyst Michael Goldberg expects more losses in the future.

“The commodity trading losses were the result of decisions that did not adequately recognize the vulnerability of the portfolio to changes in market volatility,” Bill Downe, President and Chief Executive Officer of BMO Financial Group, said in a statement.

Mr. Goldberg interpreted this statement as “faulty trading algorithms were based on garbage in, and they generated garbage out,” he told clients in a note.

This is the same bank that laid off staff knowing full well it was losing money based on a bad bet.

BMO More ATM's Less People

Banks Profit From Job Cuts

Fool me once....fool me twice.....ah heck fool me thrice

U.S. hedge fund faces billions in losses on natural gas bet

Monday, September 18, 2006 | 7:08 PM ET

Amaranth Advisors, a big U.S. hedge fund, has told its investors to brace for huge losses as a result of its costly bet that natural gas prices — now at a two-year low — would rise.

Some reports said the fund's losses could amount to $4 billion US.

"We anticipate our year-to-date losses might be in excess of 35 per cent as we near completion of the disposition of our natural gas exposure," the hedge fund said in a letter to investors obtained by several media organizations.

Amaranth traders apparently placed hugely leveraged bets that natural gas prices would rise.

A Hedge Fund’s Loss Rattles Nerves - New York Times

Enormous losses at one of the nation’s largest hedge funds resurrected worries yesterday that major bets by these secretive, unregulated investment partnerships could create widespread financial disruptions.

Alan Zale for The New York Times

Amaranth Advisors’ trading floor in Greenwich, Conn. The hedge fund said that it had lost more than $3 billion in the downturn in natural gas.

The hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, based in Greenwich, Conn., made an estimated $1 billion on rising energy prices last year. Yesterday, the fund told its investors that it had lost more than $3 billion in the recent downturn in natural gas and that it was working with its lenders and selling its holdings “to protect our investors.”

Amaranth’s investors include pension funds, endowments and large financial firms like banks, insurance companies and brokerage firms. The Institutional Fund of Hedge Funds at Morgan Stanley was an investor in Amaranth; as of June 30, it had a stake valued at $124 million. The turnabout in the fortunes of the $9.25 billion fund reflects the decline in energy prices recently; natural gas prices fell 12 percent just last week.

The scale of Amaranth’s losses — and how quickly they appear to have mounted — was the talk of Wall Street yesterday, as was speculation on how much the bet was leveraged, or made on borrowed money. Still, there were no signs of ripples on the financial markets as a result.

Amaranth’s woes are largely the result of a decline in natural gas prices that began in December, well before the spring months of March or April, when they typically fall off. Amaranth’s biggest stake was a combination bet on the spread between natural gas futures prices for March 2007 and those for April 2007. Amaranth had often bet that the spread on that so-called shoulder month — when natural gas inventories stop being drawn down and begin to rise — would increase.

But instead the spread collapsed. In the last six weeks, for example, the spread between the two futures contracts ranged from $2.50 at the end of July to around 75 cents yesterday.

Traders briefed on Amaranth’s problems, including one person who examined the fund’s books yesterday, said that the losses might be considerably larger than the firm estimated. Over the weekend, according to one person briefed on the situation, Goldman Sachs examined the fund’s positions.

Amaranth is not the first hedge fund to experience problems in energy markets. MotherRock Energy Fund, a $400 million portfolio, shut down last month after losing money on its bets that natural gas prices would fall. Summer heat sent prices soaring and the fund lost 24.6 percent in June and 25.5 percent in July, according to one investor.

The natural gas market is exceptionally volatile, making it an ideal playground for hedge funds that thrive on wide price movements in securities. Natural gas prices are subject to more severe swings than oil, in part because gas cannot be stored easily.

Amaranth Advisors LLC was an American multistrategy hedge fund managing US$9 billion in assets. In September 2006, it collapsed after losing roughly US$6 billion in a single week on natural gas futures. The failure was the largest hedge fund collapse in history.

Amaranth’s energy desk was run by a Canadian trader named Brian Hunter who placed "spread trades" in the natural gas market. Hunter had made enormous profits for the company by placing bullish bets on natural gas prices in 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina had severely impacted natural gas refining and production. Hoping for a repeat performance, Amaranth wagered with an 8:1 leverage that the difference between the March and April futures price of natural gas for 2007 and 2008 would widen.

Natural Gas: Amaranth Advisors & Centaurus Energy

And although the loser in this, Brian Hunter is doing much better than the Amaranth investors. He’s still has the couple hundred million he made before he nuked Amaranth and being quite cheeky, he’s actually shopping around a new fund!

Econbrowser: Amaranth hedge fund losses

Of course, if anybody ever audited Amaranth's holdings, they would have seen what was going on immediately, and indeed NYMEX apparently inferred from the volumes that something was wrong and warned Amaranth to reduce its positions. But the way the hedge fund game is often played, foolishly credulous investors never get to see the books and base their decision simply on the fund's track record and slick sales pitch. I have to join Big Picture and Motley Fool in blaming the folks who supplied Amaranth with capital, rather than the managers themselves. Anyone who tells himself that 35% annual returns with no risk are there to be obtained by some unseen hedge-fund magic is soon to be parted from his wealth.

When you hold a significant portion of the outstanding contracts, you have the potential to move markets in a big way when you liquidate, making your swan song all the more dramatic when it comes. This is what happened to Long Term Capital Management, and it seems likely that a significant part of the September volatility in the graphs above is directly due to Amaranth.

I have often argued that as long as speculators make a profit, their actions tend to be stabilizing, as they have helped direct resources to where they are most needed. But by that metric, we got $6 billion worth of destabilization out of Amaranth last month. And when I hear a story like this, my first instinct is that there could well be a lot more of this going on. Amaranth's staggering losses leave me more open to the claim that a significant part of the general commodity price increases we have seen in recent years might be the result of actions by speculators who are destined to earn spectacular losses.

See

Criminal Capitalism Redux

CEO

Stock Options

Corporate Crime

White Collar Crime

Criminal Capitalism

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Whine Me A River

The loonie's impact is hardest on manufacturers in Central Canada as its impact on western manufactures is being offset by the high demand for their products, Myers said.

There's not much the Bank of Canada can do to help firms deal with the strong dollar, Myers said. However, governments can continue to cut taxes on investments in new machinery and equipment and reduce their regulatory compliance costs, he said.

"The high dollar has forced manufacturers to become super-efficient, but they still face a lot of mandatory overhead costs," he said.

If they are so efficient then they should be able to plow their record profits back into their companies, instead of investing them in the stock market or sending them offshore to tax havens. Of course "super-efficient" is just another way of saying job cuts.

See:

Productivity Myth

Canadian Workers Poorer Today Than Yesterday

Variable Capital


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