Sunday, February 16, 2025

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International Call for the Revolutionary Union of Anarchists



 anarchistnews.org
Feb 15, 2025

From Abolition Media by Dimitris Chatzivasileiadis

First part, introductory: 12th of February 2012

On 12 February 2012 the last big battle of the anti-austerity movement (in the Greek territory) took place. Other open battles followed in the following years, but after that day, when the movement realized that it had reached the limits of its power, it did not revive. The objective of this longstanding insurrectionary movement, which was to cancel the parliament during the passing of the controversial laws or even to occupy it, was lost for good during the popular attempt on 12/2/2012. It was the biggest militant gathering since 1973. Half a million people, once again, but for what would be the last time, surrounded the central institution of the regime and after being repelled by chemical bombardment, we made persistent efforts to reach the target again. The state’s military machine, without resorting to the use of standard weapons of warfare, overpowered a huge yet unarmed mass of people.

The turning point of the anti-austerity movement became a critical juncture for various poles of the anti-authoritarian movement that led them to prioritize the question of the revolutionary program and the question of organization. We all recognized the impasse of one-dimensional insurrectionism, that is, of the deferral of all questions to the dynamics of the insurgent mass and to the moment of insurrection. However, the road to overcoming all the culminated weaknesses remained blurred. The program and the political organization became the new points of deferral for all critical issues, while denouncing insurrectionary practice. On the other hand, for the political poles who denied the necessity of organizational unity, it was enough to distort the experience and the project of the insurrection into an ephemeral experience or into an expression of the prevalence of alternativist experimentation. The advocates of the need for organization of the popular power were few and weak within the political balances in the movement; they were voices that stemmed from armed practice and were therefore capable of being conscious of the material conditions of the current class-political conflict. Both those who replaced insurrectionism with organizationalism and those who removed the subversive substance of insurrection, underestimated the revolutionary qualities of the struggling mass. It is enough to make an observation from the depths of Bolshevik social democracy a century ago, not famous for its insurrectionism, in order to leave behind these conservative positions as the prehistory of bourgeois philosophy. Antonio Gramsci: “The use of the word spontaneous is elitist because it refers to a scholastic and academic conception that identifies as true and worthy of consideration only those insurrectionary movements that are 100% conscious, meaning movements that are guided by premeditation to the last detail or placed along an abstract theoretical line”1. Structurelessness [tn: otherwise known as informalismo] and alternativism fall under the same critique invertedly, because they also separate social spontaneity from revolutionary orientation and the capacity for readiness, so as to identify as genuine, spontaneous and authentic only those movements that seem to favor the validation of such a separation. A recent example is the separation of the 1st Palestinian Intifada from the organized armed resistance, in the service of the repudiation of the October 7 revolutionary initiative.

The reintroduction of the issues about program and organization also reactivated the questions of the relations between political and class or social organization, the question about competency over drafting the program and about its class basis. Within the course of the dialogue on the issue of organization in the past five years locally (Athens), collective proposals and personal theoretical positions have been formed with references to the Platform of Dielo Truda. Since 2020, from the state of exile and from prison, I have taken a position on these key issues in a number of analytical texts. The evolution of the class-political struggle on a global scale, the state of the anarchist movement internationally and the directions that the use of platformist ideas in the Greek movement have taken, require the articulation of a precise proposal on the union of anarchists today; a proposal for the renewal and not the distortion and burial of our revolutionary history. Many of us have participated in the struggle for organization over the last decade. Also many study history and the active dialogue. Judging that currently in the Greek movement there is no declared project of revolutionary anarchist organization, and from the state of being incarcerated, I aim to address directly (and therefore simultaneously) the whole of the anarchist movement locally and internationally. The very logic of my proposal, which I consider to emanate from the historical lessons of revolutionary anarchism, requires that it be communicated over the maximum geographical range without delay. As a prisoner of the revolutionary people’s war, who unwaveringly advocates subversive action and organization, I ought to give this political proposal the character of a call.

My text will come in segments, so that it may be easily understood. It will be published in sequences, and in order to save time I will avoid repeating the arguments I have already presented in previous texts. I am addressing the comrades who want to understand. I will briefly discuss the basics, the conclusions and the coherent train of thought. In the part where I describe the theoretical model and the general organizational path of the anarchist union, I will be particularly specific and accompany the text with diagrams.

With the invaluable solidarity of a few comrades, the text can initially be published in both Greek and English. Its republication and translation into other languages will be an indicator of its recognition or rejection as a fruitful proposal.

The first question that needs to be answered before I proceed is the productive order of the questions posed. First comes the program or the organization? First the political or the class/social organization? Past, present and future of practical theory, in what order? There are six different arrangements of time points and each gives a reading of the universe from a different starting point. Which is most appropriate for developing a proposal for revolutionary organization? I will directly note the general order and in the course the sequence of specific themes will become clear. The discussion about organizational questions presupposes that we determine the goal. The general revolutionary program comes first. Therefore, we begin with what follows and what is to come, in accordance with the revolutionary purpose and revolutionary practice as preconditions. Then we go through the history of our purpose, its practice and its organization, so that we can discuss on the current context bearing the knowledge of our history. Revolutionary practice is a restoration of the optimum of the evolutionary path of the human species and a rupture from the historical chains of our class-political weaknesses. This brings us to the topical program of struggle and after that particularly to the organizational program. Although the general revolutionary program, which refers to the whole of the revolutionary social subject, precedes the discussion on the matter of political organization, the questions about the general organization of the social/class movement and of the social revolution appear downsized and distorted when the revolutionary vision is actively absent. Thus, while the social movement is the matrix and not a mechanical extension of political organizations, it is misleading to discuss its development if we have not defined our basic commitments as comrades and interlocutors on the subject. The questions on social self-direction and classless reconstruction are the last to be dealt with, but we must certainly deal with them, although the last word is always with bodies much broader than political organizations.

Second part: A basic coherent program of class liberation and social self-management.

For ten years now, since the preliminary work for the formation of an anarchist political organization in the Greek movement, there has been much talk about the “revolutionary program”. The program is signified as the expected new testament that will solve the riddles of history. All the investments in the program, which is always postponed, focus on the revolutionary social transformation after the overthrow of state and capitalist power. Do we really need such a program? If so, why was the international revolutionary proletarian movement of the last two centuries incapable of drawing it up, but we, the modern Greek philosophers of anarchy are capable?

Yes, a defined revolutionary cause is required for the revolutionary struggle. Revolution is a total social transformation, since, even if it does not immediately change everything, it puts everything under trial under unified criteria. A general program of social transformation is necessary for the orientation of the revolutionary struggle.

The evolution of social intelligence in general and the struggles of the exploited classes during the centuries of domination of the capitalist mode of production in particular, made the drafting of an anti-capitalist revolutionary program necessary and feasible. We have had this program for centuries now, at least ever since Babeuf, or rather since the Münster Commune and beyond. Liberation of the producers from the domination of capital and social self-management through the producers’ associations and the communities [tn: otherwise, the demos]… As long as we are still within capitalism, the idea remains radical, but anyone who presents it as new is rather self-satisfied

Those convinced of the absence of the revolutionary program will object that the above statement is a truism of zero value in terms of the need they point out, because the general historical program is too abstract. We agree, but the discussion must begin with the recognition that we have the general program in many variations and with plenty of experiences of its imperfect application. Nor is there any lack of specificity. In the anarchist movement alone, Proudhon, Bakunin, Kropotkin, the revolution in Ukraine, Dielo Truda, the CNT, other libertarian revolutionary projects (Korea, China), etc., have formulated and/or implemented concrete programs. Were they all incomplete? There are two ways to answer the question, an idealist-elitist one and a materialist-prudent one. One version: they lacked a consistent concretization of the ideal. Who defines the criteria of consistency with the ideal? The concretization of the ideal and the determination of the criteria of consistency are a tautology. Only a new concretization can become a criterion of inconsistency. But then, since the judgment is applied retrospectively, it is authoritarian, claiming ownership of “authenticity”. Moreover, such judgments are ahistorical. So we go to the other version. Each program expresses a historically finite subjectivity. Therefore, the topical reformulation of the general program is constantly necessary. Let’s be cautious here. We are dealing with two dimensions of change: on the one hand, the general conditions of the class-political struggle and the material conditions evolve, and on the other hand, the subjects who through their struggle reassess, reformulate, etc. are renewed. An important evolutionary social contribution of the anarchist movement is the political cultivation of openly composing collective thought. The reformulation of historical reference data by every subject of revolutionary struggle brings history and writings to life. Each new reformulation is a piece that was inevitably missing due to historical dialectics and will become a new testament, but it cannot be “The Program”. This exists only in the most abstract political-social purpose, always within historical limits and has been formulated long before. Openness to reformulations is not of interest to us as a matter of epistemological relativism, although it is inherent as a natural parameter – it is of interest to us from the point of view of the needs, relations and possibilities of each struggling subject and, fundamentally, of the active and therefore primarily living subjects. In the movement of social self-direction, of liberation from all class domination and incidentally from heteronomous political management, each participating subject specifies and revises all programs. No political subject can specify a revolutionary program in the absence of the subjects who will implement it. What is called a program can only be common as a process of practical transformation through successive formulations of collective judgments and new proposals. Save this observation for later.

We go to the reflective dimension of change, to the historical objectivity of class-political conditions. Revolution is an antagonistic process. The time framework for the proposed program does not begin when the class-political enemy is eliminated, it begins every day anew, having as its horizon that catalytic moment. The separation of a stage of class-political antagonism from the stage of social transformation is mechanistic, socially unnatural and a figment of the crudest bourgeois mentality. To say from a materialist and not an idealist position that the end is determined by the means is to say that the process of conflict and the process of social transformation are a single process with two aspects at once, its relation to the class-historical establishment and its relation to the freedom it brings about. The general leaps are made thanks to the development of the unity of the two aspects; they do not confirm the postponement of social transformation and the reduction of the conflict to a mediating stage, a “necessary evil” in contradiction to the ideal end. The answer to “how do we get there?” is the practical “this is how we apply the purpose here and now”. The “grand program” is concretized in the set of current programs of immediate subversive action and social reconstruction, programs whose implementation began centuries ago and is still a long way off.

The real pivotal issue in any program is not the concretization of the ideal, but the concretization of the ways of struggle in the present evolutionary phase of the ongoing historical antagonism between revolution and counter-revolution and its forthcoming phases. The anti-austerity movement failed to block the bourgeois parliament, not because it did not know what to do next, but because it was not suitably and sufficiently organized class-wise, socially and politico-militarily to overpower the counterinsurgency at the contested point that would objectively open up the prospect of revolutionary directions, if there existed political subjects ready for that. Every program is determined through the day-to-day specific terms of the conflict between revolution and counter-revolution, and the program must be basic in terms of the temporally immediate correlation of ends and means and coherent in terms of the temporally immediate requirements of revolutionary unity. Great revolutionary ideas take concrete radical forms through these two practical immediacies (of becoming and totality).

Historically there is one ideal program common to all those who desire the abolition of exploitation. Even the liberal left agrees that the form of polity that has historically been called anarchy is the ideal. Political programs differ along the way. Marxists place stages in the program for overcoming bourgeois civilization, especially Leninists mediate evolution with the political party state, liberals do not recognize any way outside the gradual transformation of the present state, i.e. they are reformists in the narrow sense, while liberal anti-authoritarians hope for changes to occur in ideas and morals that will overpower and paralyze the power of the state. Historically, we have not been called anarchists in general those of us who value the anarchist vision – I know right-wingers who embrace it – but those who fight for the direct overthrow of capitalism and the state. The different programs may converge in the different partial albeit necessary struggles, even in projects of overthrowing political regimes. For example, I note only the collaboration of Italian anarchists and republicans in the Spanish anti-fascist front2 . However, different political programs define different and antagonistic intermediate goals and to varying degrees different practices and types of organization. Precisely because the points of conflict run through the general struggle and there come moments when non-anarchist co-fighters assume pro-regime positions and cross over to the enemy side or become the new counter-revolution, the distinct anarchist program demands an autonomous political base (drastically, productively/organizationally, programmatically/ideologically) to withstand the alternations of the counter-revolution and move forward stronger in its perspective. Thus the crucial concretization of the anarchist revolutionary program does not involve the theoretically specific questions of post-revolutionary social organization, but the immediate class-political conditions of foundation and coherence. The ways in which we struggle, before defining exactly the imaginary vision of the society we want, first define our determination to actually get there.

The political anarchist organization, that is, the united direct and programmatic action of people who are practically committed to the struggle for anarchy, is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the implementation of an anarchist program of revolutionary struggle. A mass workers’ or broader social/proletarian movement in general does not suffice either. Revolutionary struggle does not move forward without the organizational correlation of its political purpose and its social/class basis. It requires the organization of the social/class struggle in politically autonomous terms (ideological, programmatic, material and practical). The development of class and social organizations of direct struggle in fundamental political terms is a basic condition for the unfolding of a revolutionary anarchist program. Based on its class-political, class-social and socio-political organic unity, the revolutionary anarchist movement can and does become coherent in direct struggle, co-forming conditions of politically broader co-organization and front-line struggles. In terms of its syntax, every class or even social organization has a political identity. Also the characteristics of social/class fronts express political relations. The revolutionary anarchist organization and its programmatic proposals do not intervene in what is falsely regarded as neutral organizational social spaces, instead they organize social space in libertarian revolutionary terms and thus intervene in the class-political struggle and position themselves within the popular world. The socio-political bases of the evolving anarchist program are furthermore the defining foundations for the revolutionary transformations that can be made after a defeat of the counter-revolution. The constants of the direct struggle on the class field concretize the ‘grand program’.

I think it’s clear that I entered the subject of so-called organizational dualism. I will come back to it later, analyzing the issues of revolutionary anarchist organization and program in their topicality. For now, however, take it for granted that, in this political proposal, duality (or trinity, by distinguishing community-based self-organization in class-political oppression and exploitation and the territorial self-organization of the free community) does not distinguish social/class identities from political ones and does not imply the recognition of an apolitical universal class organizational field. For which class organizations does it make sense to be based on the synthesis of different political identities? Those formations that can be open to the cooperation of existing class-political and socio-political organizations and their counterpart at the most elementary scale of organization, such as labour unions of a particular company or business and local popular assemblies. A grassroots sectoral union, a Nth grade federation or a social structure and a supra-local organ of social self-management are always created with a specific political vision, which is inscribed in their aims, in their modes of struggle and in their modes of internal functioning. Logically, the subordination of class or social organizations to the political organization puts a stranglehold on mass participation or grassroots autonomy. However, the anarchist revolutionary organization has a duty and need to take initiatives to build up and engage participation in grassroots organizations consistent with its program.

What distinguishes the anarchist revolutionary program from any other political program? I noted earlier that all other paths invest in stages contradictory to the ultimate goal. They do not simply anticipate that the struggle must cross successive antagonistic states, as any political subject would logically think, but more fundamentally they concentrate their forces on contradictory intermediate goals. All other currents characterize anarchism as utopian. Their discrediting claim against the anarchist struggle is based solely on the utopian character that their own programs ascribe to the ultimate cause. The liberal and Marxist left’s investment in intermediate stages, which bear elements of statism and capitalism, presents libertarian communism as utopian.3

So, it is true to say that anarchist practice predominantly focuses on the consistency of ends and means. But this observation only applies to the ultimate end that other programs characterize as utopian. Statist political organizations are for the most part consistent with the most direct of their intermediate ends. It is important to understand this in order to be aware of the strengths and difficulties of the anarchist struggle. We turn to the question. The anarchist revolutionary program is not characterized by its consistency to the immediate, intermediate or ultimate goal, but by the immediacy of the ultimate goal. The anarchist program denies the denunciatory utopianism of bourgeois socialist theories.

The power of our programmatic proposals is the immediate implementation of the conditions of the stated purpose. Immediacy in time: Now! Immediacy of subject: Us, here, the oppressed popular body. Here and now.

Immediate implementation of the conditions that the Revolutionary Self-Defense Organization4 had summarized in the three basic directions for the contemporary international revolutionary movement that will abolish the domination of state and capital:

Α. The immediate aim is the overthrow of the political-military and financial regime, the overthrow of state institutions and the uprooting of mechanisms of authority. Β. The immediate aim is the socialization of all wealth through armed communes that should and must be established today by the revolutionary action of labor and community assemblies and the formation of open federal structures in an universal framework. Self-organization of the confrontation must aim at pushing back exploitation and control, it must also reinforce the self-defense of the social movement and of all its advances. Fighters have the socio-political duty to transfuse class and social resistances with the paradigm of direct counterattack against the political-military and economic regime and with the experience which conveys that we can crush terrorism and its domination. C. Mass revolutionary self-organization, social self-direction here and now.

Of course, if immediacy is not applied to the proposition itself, i.e. if the proposition is not manifested in practice, then the term of immediacy is false and the proposition loses its validity. The anarchist program does not wait for elections, some definitive insurrection or a universal ecumenical assembly and consensus to be implemented. It is from their immediate revolutionary deed that anarchist proposals derive their crystal clear and unparalleled truth and, incidentally, their social force.

The particularly great difficulties and the heavy tasks of the anarchist struggle derive from the same point. To fight today, cutting all bridges with the old world. This is what consistency to immediacy means. For a century and a half now the anarchist movement has built a legacy of paradigms of self-sacrificing immediacy. Its history and its truth have brought it to the strongest position of influence among the currents of resistance within the capitalist metropolis in the last half century.

Nevertheless, the rejection of intermediate stages in which established political conditions prevail, rejection which implies allowing for the direct responsibilities to be determined and scrutinized by the struggling subjects, is open to interpretations that are blatantly contradictory to the duty of immediacy and to the determination of any common criterion of consistency. Undoubtedly, the commitment to the immediacy of the social purpose makes the responsibilities vis a vis the objective conditions of domination, exploitation, extermination, etc., heavier and more radical; far from being relativistic or fragmentary and negligible. The ideology of “freedom of choice” between fields and forms of struggle is a cover for a self-serving conservatism, which, being uncommitted to any immediate duty with regards to the class-political conditions, tends to attribute a minimum of radicalism or even reactionary stances in its association with the class or political frontier (e.g. in relation to the Palestinian resistance). Where bourgeois conventions do not apply, there it becomes apparent whether the refusal of intermediate conventional goals is an expression of direct struggle and a commitment to march to the completion of the struggle or an idealistic evasion.

The ideology of “freedom of choice” is also projected deceptively with seemingly serious political terms by collective subjects who present themselves as advocates of robust organization: practical and programmatic commitments that are fundamental in the aforementioned terms of immediacy are respectively called tactics and strategies that are optional according to circumstances. This ideological modesty manifests itself precisely where circumstances are the product of conservative fixation on underlying weaknesses.

The culmination of this deconstructive relativism is the common use of the natural consequence of the consistency between ends and means (renamed as an anarchist ‘principle’), in order to claim inaction due to the condition about not violating the ‘principles’. Like the hypocrisy of the religious zealots, it doesn’t matter if you do what is necessary or you do nothing against the savagery of authority and the tragedy of the times, as long as you do nothing that falls into or resembles the political practices of the politically intermediate stages. In this normative context the ideologically safest option is to do nothing.

The evasions from the heavy tasks of immediacy confirm the reactionary denunciation of anarchism as a utopian political current. In the historical flow of the struggle, however, it is subversive acts, not unarmed declarations, that count more.From the book by Raúl Zibechi, Dispersing Powers: Social Movements as Anti-State Forces (AK Press, 2010)
Umberto Tomazini, The Anarchist Blacksmith, ed. Eutopia, Athens 2024
The platformist organizations UNIPA and OPAR in their project have analyzed the historical reversal of the
accusation about utopianism and the opportunist motive of Marxist utopianism.
(https://uniaoanarquista.wordpress.com/documentos/documentos-internacion…)
https://athens.indymedia.org/post/1592926/

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Trumps’ first days in power: Is the US heading toward fascism?
LEFT WING RHETORICAL QUESTION


Saturday 15 February 2025, by Kay Mann


Trump’s narrow victory in the popular vote in the November 2024 US presidential elections has given rise to speculation that the US is headed towards authoritarianism and even fascism. While a full discussion and definition of fascism is beyond the scope of this article, and the Trump presidency at this writing is only one week old, a flurry of presidential decrees issued within the first few days give an indication of what can be expected.


As promised and expected most of these -and those to come-are attacks on immigrants, LGBTQI+ people, women, existing environmental protection laws, communities of color, and labor and progressive organizations, while sending messages that the 1% will enjoy tax cuts and face far fewer worker safety and environmental protection regulations. Some seemed to be designed in part to test the limits of his allies fealty and state institutions, like his pardoning and sentence commuting of all of the January 6 insurrectionists, including those convicted of violent attacks as the police officers defending the capitol.

It should be clear that Trump is a right wing, would-be dictator and intends to expand presidential power as far he can. But the blatantly authoritarian, far-right orientation of Trump and his collaborators shouldn’t obscure the ways that Trump’s government both adheres to and breaks with contemporary capitalist ideology and practice. Indeed, the line between conservative capitalist politics and fascism is not always clear. Trumps’ hostility to environmental, labor, and consumer rights protections and guidelines put him squarely within the free-market neo-liberal order.

Indeed, within the first 24 hours of his presidency, Trump cancelled scores of regulations, and inspectors generals, who are responsible for enforcing government regulations were replaced with Trump loyalists. All federal DEI officers were put on leave as a prelude to their positions and jobs being eliminated. Trump withdrew the US from the World Health Organization, and the Paris Climate change accords and sent clear green lights for increased oil exploration. Trump’s attack on immigrants and promises to deport them have been a hallmark of his program since his first presidency when he promised to build a wall along the US/Mexican border to deter immigration. It should be remembered that inhumane treatment of refugees has been carried out by right wing and social democratic governments in Europe and elsewhere, and Obama’s government deported more immigrants than that of his predecessor, conservative Republican George W. Bush.

At the same time, Trump’s loudly proclaimed protectionism and threats to put tariffs of up to 25% on imported goods from Mexico and China, puts him at odds with neo-liberal free trade. The contradiction reflects an aggressive, take-no-prisoners capitalism vis-a-vis allies, long seen by US presidents and the two parties as partners, but now seen as competitors. Protectionism, economic nationalism, and jingoism have always marched together but Trump’s vision takes this much further and in ways aimed to remake the international capitalist order to favor the US even more.

This also explains the seeming contradiction between Trump’s isolationist bent and his threats to use military force, a new version of Realpolitik. US presidents have long chosen captains of financial and industrial capital as advisors and officials, but Trump has surrounded himself with a large coterie of ultra rich capitalists like Elon Musk, the richest man in the world (who recently addressed Germanys fascist AfD party, declaring it to be Germany “best hope”), Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos, three of the richest people in the world, with Musk in an official role. As the owners of Twitter and Facebook, Musk and Zuckerberg control huge swaths of social media and information. Their proximity to the world’s most powerful man, with dictatorial tendencies has enormous anti-democratic implications.
A fascist?

Much of Trump’s program and first steps in this presidency resembles therefore classic conservative and even liberal governments, though often to the extreme. In what sense, then can they be seen as fascist? Firstly, fascist and far right authoritarian regimes greatly expand the scope of executive power and eradicate checks on that power, turning parliaments into rubber stamps. Likewise, they seek to eliminate legal and political opposition. Among Trump’s first moves has been a purge of civil service to ensure that government personnel will be politically committed to Trump’s agenda. While there is no sign of Trump moving to ban the opposition Democratic Party, threats to prosecute and jail members of the congressional January 6 committee, all Democrats, could be first step in that direction. Among Biden’s last official acts as president was to give likely targets of political persecution preemptive pardons to shield them from Trump’s wrath. This is unprecedented in US political history.

Secondly, fascist regimes suspend or sharply curtail civil and political rights including those of free speech, the press, and assembly. If Trumps’ threats against the press and critical journalists escalate beyond verbal threats, this too would place Trump in the authoritarian/fascist camp. Trump’s feud with former Chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Mark Miley arose from the former’s refusal to use troops against peaceful Black Lives Matter protestors. If Trump were to use violence and mass repression against protestors, he would clearly be making a step towards authoritarianism and fascism.
A colossus with clay feet

Trump, a lumpen capitalist and reality TV star cum 45th president, twice impeached, indicted and convicted, and finally reelected, becoming the undisputed caudillo of the Republican party may seem invincible now. But like all would-be dictators, Trump will turn out to be a colossus with clay feet. His congressional majority is razor thin and while the Republican party leadership has mostly caved in, there are still untamed holdouts that will slow his agenda.

This was seen in the vote to confirm Trump’s ultra-reactionary choice for Secretary of the Defense, Pete Hegseth. Three Republicans voted against him resulting in a tie that was only broken in favor of conformation by Vance as the Speaker of the House. While Trump stacked the federal judiciary including the Supreme Court with ultra conservative supports, the court have far from being an across the board rubber stamp. A conservative federal judge appointed by Reagan slapped down Trump’s pronunciamiento ending birthright citizenship as blatantly unconstitutional. Many of Trump’s most fervent supporters are strongly anti-abortion. But Trump. recognizing how many Republicans are pro-choice, tries to play it both sides by taking credit for overturning Roe v. Wade but refuses to commit to a federal abortion ban, calling instead for the reproductive right be decided at the state level. But Trump can’t evade the issue for long and will inevitably encounter the opposition of one side or the other, if not both.

The high price of daily life necessities under Biden was a main reason that Trump won. When the cost of living fails to improve and is aggravated by Trump’s tariffs, much of his support among workers and middle class voters will lessen. Alarming numbers of Latino/as and Blacks voted for Trump in 2024. Attacks against DEI and affirmative action, the strengthening of the carceral and repressive apparatus of the state will eventually lay bare those contradictions. When Trump fails to make good on his promises to bring about general prosperity the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 2026 may well see Trump lose his Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, which would represent a blow to his ambitions, but also gives him and his advisors incentive to move quickly.

Ultimately, Trumpism, fascism, and the capitalist system that makes Trump possible will only be defeated by the mass mobilization and unity of workers and the oppressed independent of the Democrat and Republican parties. While the elections seem to reflect despair and division among these, the recent history of mass anti-racist struggle and militant labor struggles seen during the BLCM protests in 2020 and impressive labor struggles by auto workers, teachers and others, point the way forward underscore the potential for a united fightback.

Inprecor 26.1.2025


Attached documentstrumps-first-days-in-power-is-the-us-heading-toward-fascism_a8857.pdf (PDF - 912.6 KiB)
Extraction PDF [->article8857]


Kay Mann
Kay Mann is a Lecturer in Sociology at the University of Wisconsin at Stevens Point and a member of the Milwaukee branch of Solidarity.


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Belgium: Massive demonstration against the federal government

Sunday 16 February 2025, by LCR-SAP


On Thursday 13 February, 2025, 100,000 people marched through the streets of Brussels in response to a call from the trade union common front: a multitude of sectors (trade unions, feminists, anti-fascists, among many others) mobilised against the all-out attacks by the new federal government, the “Arizona coalition” which has been in power in Belgium since the beginning of February. [1] This remarkable turnout represents a real acceleration in social tension. The Gauche anticapitaliste (Belgian section of the Fourth International ) was present and marched with Commune Colère, a unitary pole bringing together workers from many backgrounds (trade union left, feminist, anti-racist and anti-fascist collectives, environmental activists and so on), whose bloc brought together several hundred people around combative slogans.


This major mobilisation should be a first test of strength, and mark the start of a real plan of action against the government in the coming weeks. The union leaders have announced a general strike for 31 March. This will be a decisive step in the balance of power, but before that, we need to continue mobilising, sector by sector: railway workers, Audi subcontractors and teachers have already announced strikes and actions, and these are the embers of a broader mobilisation. The feminist strike on 8 March should also be part of this fight against Arizona, showing the particularly harmful impact of its measures on women, and linking feminist and trade union issues. Similarly, actions on 21 March, the International Day Against Racism, should denounce the new government’s murderous immigration policy. As for the general strike, it will only be effective if it is supported by a broad popular mobilisation from below, going beyond a simple 24-hour work stoppage. The protest movement must continue to spread from now on, and above all be deployed with a clear objective: the fall of the De Wever government.
No to the demolition of our rights! Unite to stop Arizona!

The world is tilting towards the far right, which is destroying society and the planet for profit. With De Wever - Bouchez, Belgium is heading in the same direction. It’s time to fight for a different kind of society. Generous, inclusive, welcoming, democratic and social.

The De Wever government represents an historic danger for the world of work and its organisations. Together with the European Union, it is manipulating the issue of public debt in order to carry out a large-scale offensive against the social conquests of the working class: in concrete terms, its programme means the end of genuine social security in the event of unemployment, pension or illness. Wage indexation is under threat, as is protection against unbearable working hours. These measures come on top of decades of austerity and are aimed at decisively weakening the position of workers vis-à-vis employers.

At all levels, it is primarily women who will pay the highest price. In the face of climate danger, Arizona is the government of deadly denial. The inhuman repression of exiled workers, migrants and asylum seekers is aimed at fracturing the resistance of our class through the poison of racism: attacks on trade union freedoms and the rights to strike and demonstrate complete this project to muzzle us. Their blah-blah about the ‘lesser evil’ and ‘social dialogue’ are nothing but decoys. Let’s not make the same mistakes as in 2014!

We need to change course. A course that aims for clarity:

No illusions in a ‘better balance’ with Arizona: it’s time to put an end to austerity on the backs of workers and their Social Security, and to the destruction of the Earth!
No to meaningless ‘social dialogue’: for real democratic control over our living, working and pay conditions!
Out with the false ‘political friends’ who betray us: let’s defend our demands ourselves!
We want to and can go and find the money where it is, by introducing a real crisis tax on the ultra-rich: an exceptional, substantial and progressive tax on the wealth of the country’s richest 10%.
We need a real plan of action, building from the bottom up, leading to a real general strike at the end, with the aim of bringing down the government!
There’s no time to lose: the EU expects concrete reforms by the end of April!
Let’s get everyone involved in the struggle, by forming action committees across companies and sectors!
For a broad alliance of trade unions and social movements in defence of another society based on solidarity and democracy!

WE HAVE NO TIME TO LOSE! STOP ARIZONA!

inprecor->https://inprecor.fr/node/4580] 15 February 2025

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Footnotes

[1] The name derives from the colours of the coalition parties resembling those of the flag of the US state.

Belgium
In memory of Patrice Lumumba, assassinated on 17 January 1961
The Assad regime has fallen, long live the Syrian people’s revolution!
Belgium: For freedom of movement and settlement, against closed centres
Facing the future rightwing coalition, for a social and unitive response!
Successful campaign meetings of Gauche Anticapitaliste

LCR-SAP
The LCR-SAP is the Belgian section of the Fourth International


International Viewpoint is published under the responsibility of the Bureau of the Fourth International. Signed articles do not necessarily reflect editorial policy. Articles can be reprinted with acknowledgement, and a live link if possible.

Ukraine three years after all‑out invasion: Continue solidarity and support


Thursday 13 February 2025, by Fred LeplatLiz Lawrence


Fred Leplat and Liz Lawrence explore the situation facing Ukraine today and key solidarity tasks in the months ahead.


The current phase of the war in Ukraine started on the 24 February 2022, three years ago. Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014, and then attempted for eight years to annex the Donbass. When Putin ordered the large-scale imperialist invasion in February 2024 to “demilitarise” and “denazify” Ukraine, he believed that the Zelenskyy government would fall within a matter of days and that Russian troops would be welcomed. But the Russian troops were pushed back, and three years on, victory for Putin, or at least achieving his war aims, is nowhere near.

For the Ukrainians, their motivation to continue the war remains the same: the liberation of their country from occupation and restoring self-determination. Their resistance to imperialist aggression and for independence is entirely legitimate, as well as is obtaining the arms from wherever they can. Occupation and annexation are crimes, whether they happen in Ukraine or Palestine. Ukrainians voted decisively for independence in 1991 (at the time of the end of the Soviet Union) in the referendum, with 92% voting in favour, on an 84% turnout.

Casualties on both sides during the last three years have been extremely high. The Russians may have lost over 200,000 killed and 600,000 wounded, while Ukraine has lost over 80,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. In addition, over 12,000 Ukrainian civilians have died, with 30,000 wounded. Despite exhaustion from the war, 4 in 10 Ukrainians still want the war to continue until victory, while understandably, half want war to end as soon as possible. Ukraine is a nation with a long history, with its own language and culture. Like for Palestinians and other oppressed peoples, the sentiment for independence, national sovereignty and self-determination goes back a long way.

After three years of this phase of the war, Ukraine is in a difficult position. Russia has stepped up its bombing of civilian areas and infrastructure, and is making slow but steady military advances. Western sanctions against Russia have not hit its economy significantly, and its export of liquified natural gas is at a record high. However, there are strains now emerging in the Russian economy as a result of the war. After a period when the war actually seemed to be benefiting Russia economically (so-called ‘military Keynesianism’) it has now encountered serious resource constraints and increasing inflation. If significant economic problems arise in Russia, this would strengthen the Ukrainian position in any negotiations.

The financial pressure from Trump is dangerous for Ukraine. Biden, before leaving office, committed the US to $5.9 billion in military and budget aid, but Trump may renew this only as a loan if Ukraine agrees to negotiations with Russia in which it makes concessions. After pausing arms supplies for a few days, Trump has suggested aid may continue in exchange for Ukraine supplying the US with rare earth metals. Trump’s pause in USAid will also affect Ukraine hard: since February 2022, it has received $7.6bn in humanitarian aid from the US.

In Ukraine the war effort is being hit by war-weariness, more difficulty recruiting and the increase in desertions. But more critical is that the government has not instituted a “war economy” with decisive state intervention in critical sectors, from arms manufacture to health and housing. Instead, it has embraced neoliberalism with privatisations and attacks on employment rights. The latest attack on union and labour rights has been pushed back, but the threat remains. Zelensky wants to prove his neoliberal credentials, in particular with his refusal to call for the debt of Ukraine be cancelled. He wants to be a reliable partner with private investors and banks. Cancellation of the debt is crucial to enable a socially just reconstruction. Privatisations have enabled the enrichment of a few and spread corruption, which in turn has damaged morale and trust.

Putin clearly believes that Ukraine will be forced into accepting an imposed “peace” settlement negotiated with Trump behind the backs of the Ukrainians. In a sign that Putin cannot win the war for now, the original war objectives have been watered down. In addition to the annexation of the Donbass, Putin wants Ukraine to reduce its military by 80% and stay out of the EU and NATO. Despite Zelensky conceding negotiating directly with Putin, this has been rejected by Putin, who claims that Zelensky is not legitimate as his term expired and no new elections have been held during wartime. So the Ukrainians have little choice but to fight on and resist as best they can the Russian invasion, the purpose of which is to turn their country into a satellite of Russia.

The war has dragged on because Ukraine has not received weapons in sufficient quantity or quickly enough to defend itself. Western imperialism has always been ambivalent in its support for Ukraine. Some countries would like to see the war end as soon as possible so that “normal” business can resume with Russia, while others would like the war to drag on as long as possible so as weaken Russian imperialism. The West reluctantly supported Ukraine in the name of “defending democracy”. This had the benefit of giving NATO and Western imperialist countries a new coat of paint after their 20-year “war against terrorism” ended in defeat in Afghanistan and Iraq. Their lukewarm support for Ukraine is in stark contrast with their support for genocidal actions of Israel in Gaza and the brutal dictatorship of the House of Saud, providing both of them with an unlimited supply of weapons. Ukraine is of limited geostrategic interest to the West compared to Israel and Saudi Arabia.

White Banner: From Ukraine to Palestine Occupation is a Crime with the respecyyive flags painted above the country names being carried by 5 or 6 people at front of photo with other people and banners further back
Labour leader Keir Starmer has continued the Tory government’s cautious support for Ukraine, carefully avoiding supporting its war aims – the liberation of the country. He only says that Ukraine should be “in the strongest possible position in the coming months” so that any peace deal to end its war with Ukraine “could be achieved through strength”. While he declares that Britain is “standing by Ukraine”, he drags his feet supplying weapons, but recommits Britain to increased military spending. While supporting Ukraine, some on the left have latched on to NATO’s new mission in their belief that Russian imperialism is the gravest danger facing Western democracies, therefore backing Labour’s increases in military budgets. But the West can give Ukraine what it needs without increasing such spending.

The Ukrainians should be supported in their resistance against Russian imperialist invasion despite Zelensky’s neoliberal government. They should also be supported in spite of Western imperialism trying to influence the war aims and the future of Ukraine. The West is using the war to weaken a rival imperialist country, Russia, and ensure a neoliberal reconstruction. For the West, this is more important than the liberation of Ukraine. The neoliberal course of the Zelensky government has to be condemned, and illusions by Ukrainians in the European Union be dispelled. The “structural adjustment” applied by the EU and the European Central Bank on Greece in 2015 for a bail-out of its debt is a lesson for Ukraine. There was an alternative then, and there is an alternative now in Ukraine to extreme neoliberalism. It will come from the left, the trade unions and progressive forces in Ukraine, with international solidarity, fighting for a cancellation of the country’s debt and for a reconstruction based on social, economic and climate justice.

Internationally, supporters of Ukraine must continue solidarity work. This includes education about the oppression being suffered by Ukrainians in territory under Russian occupation. We must challenge any view that the sufferings of Ukrainians will end if they are forced to stop fighting and to surrender. Trump’s plans to allow Putin to annex around 20% of Ukraine will not provide the basis for a long-term settlement to the war. They may lay the basis for further invasion and annexation. In addition to demanding the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine, we must raise demands for return of all Ukrainian prisoners of war and Ukrainian civilians who have been forcibly removed to Russian territory. We must oppose peace talks being held without Ukrainians present or any imposition of a settlement against the will of the Ukrainian people.

AntiCapitalist Resistance 10 February 2025


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Fred Leplat
Fred Leplat is a leading member of Socialist Resistance, which collaborates with the Fourth International.

Liz Lawrence
Liz Lawrence is a member of ACR in Britain, a past President of the University and College Union and active in UCU Left.


International Viewpoint is published under the responsibility of the Bureau of the Fourth International. Signed articles do not necessarily reflect editorial policy. Articles can be reprinted with acknowledgement, and a live link if possible.



AU CONTRAIRE

 Trump Gives Peace a Chance in Ukraine

February 14, 2025
Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.





As we approach the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a monumental shift is taking place that might just lead to the end of this calamitous war. This is not a breakthrough on the battlefield, but a stark reversal of the U.S. position from being the major supplier of weapons and funding to prolong the war to one of peacemaker.

Donald Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine if he was re-elected as president. On February 12th, he started to make good on that promise by holding a 90-minute call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Biden had refused to talk to since the war began. They agreed that they were ready to begin peace negotiations “immediately,” and Trump then called President Zelensky and spent an hour discussing the conditions for what Zelensky called a “lasting and reliable peace.”

At the same time, the new U.S. Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, unveiled Trump’s new policy in more detail at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, saying, “The bloodshed must stop. And this war must end.”

There are two parts to the new policy that Hegseth announced. First, he said that Trump “intends to end this war by diplomacy and bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the table.” Secondly, he said that the United States is handing off the prime responsibility for arming Ukraine and guaranteeing its future security to the European members of NATO.

Assigning Europe the role of security guarantor is a transparent move to shield the U.S. from ongoing responsibility for a war that it played a major role in provoking and prolonging by scuttling previous negotiations. If the Europeans will not accept their assigned role in Trump’s plan, or President Zelensky or Putin reject it, the United States may yet have to play a larger role in security guarantees for Ukraine than Trump or many Americans would like. Zelensky told the Guardian on February 11th that, for Ukraine, “Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees.”

After blocking peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in April 2022, the Biden administration rejected peace negotiations over Ukraine for nearly three years. Biden insisted that Ukraine must recover all of its internationally recognized territory, including the Crimea and Donbas regions that separated from Ukraine after the U.S.-backed coup in Kyiv in 2014.

Hegseth opened the door to peace by clearly and honestly telling America’s European allies, “…we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective. Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.”

Spelling out the U.S. plan in more detail, Hegseth went on, “A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again. This must not be Minsk 3.0. That said, the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. Instead any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.”

NATO membership for Ukraine has always been totally unacceptable to the Russians. Trump and Hegseth’s forthrightness in finally pulling the plug, after the U.S. has dangled NATO membership in front of successive Ukrainian governments since 2008, marks a critical recognition that neutrality offers the best chance for Ukraine to coexist with Russia and the West without being a battleground between them.

Trump and Hegseth expect Europe to assume prime responsibility for Ukraine, while the Pentagon will instead focus on Trump’s two main priorities: on the domestic front, deporting immigrants, and on the international front, confronting China. Hegseth justified this as “a division of labor that maximizes our comparative advantages in Europe and the Pacific respectively.”

Elaborating on the role the U.S. plan demands of its European allies, Hegseth explained,

“If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission. And they should not be covered under Article 5. There also must be robust international oversight of the line of contact. To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine… Safeguarding European security must be an imperative for European members of NATO. As part of this Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine.”

To say that U.S. forces will never fight alongside European forces in Ukraine, and that Article 5, the mutual defense commitment in the NATO Charter, will not apply to European forces in Ukraine, is to go a step farther than simply denying NATO membership to Ukraine, by carving out Ukraine as an exclusion zone where the NATO Charter no longer applies, even to NATO members.

While Trump plans to negotiate directly with Russia and Ukraine, the vulnerable position in which his plan would place European NATO members means that they, too, will want a significant say in the peace negotiations and probably demand a U.S. role in Ukraine’s security guarantees. So Trump’s effort to insulate the U.S. from the consequences of its actions in Ukraine may be a dead letter before he even sits down to negotiate with Russia and Ukraine.

Hegseth’s reference to the Minsk Accords highlights the similarities between Trump’s plans and those agreements in 2014 and 2015, which largely kept the peace in Eastern Ukraine from then until 2022. Western leaders have since admitted that they always intended to use the relative peace created by the Minsk Accords to build up Ukraine militarily, so that it could eventually recover Donetsk and Luhansk by force, instead of granting them the autonomous status agreed to in the Accords.

Russia will surely insist on provisions that prevent the West from using a new peace accord in the same way, and would be highly unlikely to agree to substantial Western military forces or bases in Ukraine as part of Ukraine’s security guarantees. President Putin has always insisted that a neutral Ukraine is essential to lasting peace.

There is, predictably, an element of “having their cake and eating it too” in Trump and Hegseth’s proposals. Even if the Europeans take over most of the responsibility for guaranteeing Ukraine’s future security, and the U.S. has no Article 5 obligation to support them, the United States would retain its substantial command and control position over Europe’s armed forces through NATO. Trump is still demanding that its European members increase their military spending to 5% of GDP, far more than the United States spends on its bloated, wasteful and defeated war machine.

Biden was ready to fight Russia “to the last Ukrainian,” as retired U.S. diplomat Chas Freeman said in March 2022, and to enrich U.S. weapons companies with rivers of Ukrainian blood. Is Trump now preparing to fight Russia to the last British, French, German or Polish soldier too if his peace plan fails?

Trump’s call with Putin and Hegseth’s concessions on NATO and Ukraine’s territorial integrity left many European leaders reeling. They complained that the U.S. was making concessions behind their backs, that these issues should have been left to the negotiating table, and that Ukraine should not be forced to give up on NATO membership.

European NATO members have legitimate concerns to work out with the new U.S. administration, but Trump and Hegseth are right to finally and honestly tell Ukraine that it will not become a NATO member, to dispel this tragic mirage and let it move on into a neutral and more peaceful future.

There has also been a backlash from Republican war hawks, while the Democrats, who have been united as the party of war when it comes to Ukraine, will likely try to sabotage Trump’s efforts. On the other hand, maybe a few brave Democrats will recognize this as a chance to reclaim their party’s lost heritage as the more dovish of America’s two legacy parties, and to provide desperately needed new progressive foreign policy leadership in Congress.

On both sides of the Atlantic, Trump’s peace initiative is a gamechanger and a new chance for peace that the United States and its allies should embrace, even as they work out their respective responsibilities to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. It is also a time for Europe to realize that it can’t just mimic U.S. foreign policy and expect U.S. protection in return. Europe’s difficult relationship with Trump’s America may lead to a new modus operandi and a re-evaluation (or maybe even the end?) of NATO.

Meanwhile, those of us anxious to see peace in Ukraine should applaud President Trump’s initiative but we should also highlight the glaring contradictions of a president who finds the killing in Ukraine unacceptable but fully supports the genocide in Palestine.

Given that most of the casualties in Ukraine are soldiers, while most of the maimed and killed in Palestine are civilians, including thousands of children, the compassionate, humanitarian case for peace is even stronger in Palestine than in Ukraine. So why is Trump committed to stopping the killing in Ukraine but not in Gaza? Is it because Trump is so wedded to Israel that he refuses to rein in its slaughter? Or is it just that Ukrainians and Russians are white and European, while Palestinians are not?

If Trump can reject the political arguments that have fueled three years of war in Ukraine and apply compassion and common sense to end that war, then he can surely do the same in the Middle East.

Is Trump’s Plan To Take Greenland To Control Arctic Shipping Lanes?


Donald Trump’s recent flirtations with acquiring Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal are not new ideas. They all relate to a single strategic objective: controlling shipping lanes between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

The US has long been a champion of “freedom of navigation”, using military force to police the world’s seaways, from the South China Sea to the Straits of Hormuz.  Although the US has never ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), it consistently enforces its principles worldwide.

As Arctic seas ice continues to recede, opening the Northwest Passage (NWP) and the Northern Sea Route(NSR) for longer periods each year, international access to these shipping routes is becoming an ever more pressing issue, as these Arctic routes offer significantly shorter transit between Europe and East Asia than routes through the Panama or Suez canals.

Moreover, the economic and geopolitical implications of Arctic trade are staggering. Shorter and more cost-effective shipping routes will reshape the balance of global trade, and control over these routes will dictate economic flow, energy transportation, and even military positioning, given the critical role of seaborne logistics in global defense strategies. The viability of the Arctic as a major shipping region also brings with it economic opportunities in tourism, fisheries, and natural resource extraction, including oil and rare earth minerals.

Historical Context: The long quest for Arctic sea-routes

By the late Middle Ages, trade between Europe and Asia was flourishing along the Silk Road and over Portuguese-controlled shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope. However, because such trade routes were both long and treacherous, Northern Europeans were eager to find a shorter alternative, and they believed there could be an Arctic route to get there.

For centuries, they explored the North American Arctic, looking for the NWP, a postulated sea route through the Arctic that would connect the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In 1610, Henry Hudson made it to Hudson Bay, believing he had found the NWP, but ended up trapped in ice, and died there following a mutiny. In the 19th century, John Franklin mapped large parts of the Canadian Arctic, but in 1845 he likewise got stuck in the ice and died.

Finally, in 1906, Norwegian Roald Amundsen became the first Westerner to successfully navigate the NWP in a small wooden ship, relying on survival techniques he learned from the Inuit. While he showed that the passage did in fact exist, thick ice made it commercially useless. Today, warming temperatures in the Arctic are leading to a receding of sea ice, finally unlocking the NWP, turning what was once an explorer’s graveyard into a potential global shipping route in the coming decades.

Meanwhile, Russian explorers were interested in a similar shipping route North of Siberia, the Northeast Passage (NEP), running from the Barents Sea to the Bering Strait. The first attempt to navigate the NEP came in 1648 when Semyon Dezhnev sailed through the Bering Strait, proving that Siberia was not connected to North America. His efforts were repeated in 1728 when Peter the Great sent Danish explorer Vitus Bering to confirm this information. Bering’s second expedition in 1741 landed in Alaska leading to its colonization and settlement by Russian fur traders and Orthodox missionaries.

While Dezhnev and Bering explored the coastal areas of the Russian Far East, in 1878, Adolf Erik Nordenskiöld led the first full transit of the NEP, proving Russia’s Northern coast was, in fact, navigable. Stalin’s USSR claimed full sovereignty over the NSR, building a series of Arctic bases complete with nuclear-powered icebreakers to ensure year-round access, declaring the NSR to be a historical sea route of the USSR. With the gradual warming of the Arctic, it has been hypothesized that the NSR could be ice-free all year long by 2100, making it a viable competitor to the Suez Canal for Europe-Asia shipping.

As global warming opens both NWP and NSR to global shipping, issues about freedom of navigation take center stage as both Russia and Canada claim that their respective Arctic sea-routes traverse their sovereign internal waters, giving them the right to control who goes through and under what conditions. The US disagrees and claims they should be open to ships of all nations as critical international sea lanes, based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

UNCLOS and the Legal Framework for Navigable Straits

UNCLOS was adopted in 1982 and came into force in 1994, defining different maritime zones and the rights of nations to operate in them. According to UNCLOS, territorial waters of coastal nations extend 12 nautical miles from the shoreline, over which they have complete control but must allow innocent foreign passage. Such states also have a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in which they control all resources, including oil, fishing and other resources, but foreign ships have free navigation rights. When the continental shelf extends beyond 200 nautical miles, states can further claim control over the seabed in that region (leading Canada, Denmark, and Russia to overlapping Arctic claims).

Of most concern for purposes of the NWP and NSR are two more complex defined maritime spaces, internal waters and straits used for international navigation connecting two parts of the High Seas (or EEZs).

Examples of such straits include the Bering Strait between the US and Russia, the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, and the Bosporus (entirely within Turkey but controlling access to the Black Sea). According to UNCLOS, such straits must remain open for international navigation. If the NSR and NWP are classified as international straits, connecting Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, Russia and Canada would be required to allow foreign vessels the free right to transit them.

Russia and Canada, however, consider parts of the NWP or NSR to be internal waters, over which they would have complete sovereignty and therefore claim the right to exclude any ship they like. Unfortunately, in contrast to regular contiguous coastlines, both Northern Canada and Northern Russia have many islands and archipelagos, complicating the definition of where the coastal baseline lies – this baseline is the point from which territorial waters and EEZs extend.  Canada and Russia have both applied the “method of straight baselines” as defined in Section 2 Article 7 of UNCLOS, to define their internal waters, but this is controversial.

Complicating matters from the US perspective is the fact that Congress has never ratified UNCLOS, leaving the US not a full party to it, thereby weakening its legal standing to complain.  Much like the International Criminal Court, despite being non-members, the US tries to hold other countries to the letter of such laws while exempting itself.

The US Approach to Freedom of Navigation: A Global Perspective

Despite not ratifying UNCLOS, the US actively defends global sea lanes to ensure open trade and shipping rights. In fiscal year 2023, for example, US forces “operationally challenged 29 excessive maritime claims advanced by 17 different claimants throughout the world,”  including “straight baselines” claims of Cambodia, Colombia, China, Japan, Maldives and Vietnam.

Beyond this, the US Fifth Fleet works to ensure freedom of navigation for commercial shipping vessels around the Straits of Hormuz between Iran and Oman (through which Persian Gulf Oil exports must travel) as well as the Red Sea leading to the Suez Canal (where there have been problems with piracy and Houthi attacks in recent years). In the South China Sea, the US has repeatedly challenged Chinese claims to the so-called nine-dash-line as the boundary of their claimed territorial waters, as these claims are inconsistent with UNCLOS, claiming it had been Chinese territory since the Han Dynasty.

In the context of Freedom of Navigation (FONOPs), it is important to mention the Panama Canal. The US returned control of the Canal Zone to Panama in 1979, and control of the canal itself was returned to Panama in 1999, after a twenty-year period of transition. A treaty was signed guaranteeing the permanent neutrality of the canal such that whether at war or peace, all nations’ vessels, including those of military belligerents, had equal rights to use the canal without discrimination.

Of relevance to today’s headlines, the US agreed not to challenge Denmark’s claims to Greenland as part of a deal to purchase the Virgin Islands from them in 1917, in part to help protect access to the Panama Canal. The neutrality treaty is the basis for Marco Rubio’s recent trip to Panama to complain about increasing Chinese influence on canal operations, ostensibly as part of US efforts to guarantee freedom of the seas.

Arctic Navigation

The extent of Arctic Sea Ice is now “more than two million square kilometers less than it was in the late twentieth century,” and “reductions in the amount of Arctic sea ice that survives summer melt have resulted in more newly formed ice (first-year ice) and less of the relatively thick, old ice that makes up the perennial ice cover.” Computer models suggest that by 2060, “the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point,” suggesting that the Arctic Ocean will be “seasonally ice-free” by the end of the 21st century, which may even allow for opening of new Trans-Arctic shipping routes that completely avoid Canadian and Russian territorial claims sometime in the next century. The changes to ice cover in the Arctic are expected to increase use of the NWP and NSR for shipping, and to open more areas of the Arctic for efficient resource extraction and export thereof.

For a variety of reasons related to ice conditions and oceanographic dynamics, the NSR is more easily navigable than the NWP. The North coast of Russia is characterized by relatively open seas, with more extreme seasonal ice melting, partly due to influences from warm Atlantic Ocean water inflows. Meanwhile in Canada, the Arctic archipelago has a complex geography with narrow channels and deep straits where thick multi-year ice persists. The archipelago also extends much farther North than the Russian coast, and the open distances between islands can be very small, creating choke points that are easily clogged with inflows of thick multiyear sea ice.

The Beaufort Gyre is a clockwise current in the Western Arctic’s Beaufort Sea, which traps multiyear sea-ice and freshwater coming from melting ice and outflow from Siberian rivers in the Canadian Arctic. The Gyre prolongs the retention of thick multi-year ice in the NWP, which is the most problematic ice for disrupting navigation.

On the other hand, the Transpolar Drift linear eastward current moves ice away from Siberia toward Greenland and the Canadian Arctic, flushing more ice into the NWP while clearing the NSR of ice.

Essentially, the Beaufort Gyre causes ice retention in the Canadian Arctic, making navigation in the Northwest Passage difficult, while the Transpolar Drift promotes ice export from the Russian Arctic, making navigation of the NSR easier.

As Arctic sea-ice melts, this effect will be more and more extreme, with the NWP becoming increasingly clogged with residual thick sea ice while the NSR becomes more and more open.  Until the thick multiyear sea ice is completely gone, it is likely that despite the retreat of Arctic sea-ice, the NWP will remain obstructed and difficult to navigate reliably for the rest of the 21st century, while the NSR will be of greater and greater use as a viable year-round Arctic shipping route.

US–Canada disputes over the NWP

Canada insists that the NWP goes through their own internal waters, giving them the right to regulate traffic and exclude ships as they see fit. Canada’s claim is based on “straight baselines,” as indicated in the Territorial Sea Geographical Coordinates (Area 7) Order, and shown graphically on this map. Note that most official Canadian maps even further exaggerate their territorial extent, based on earlier pre-UNCLOS claims to even wider Arctic sovereignty.

The US counterargues that the NWP is an international strait connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and thus should be open to free international navigation.

In 1969, the SS Manhattan, an American oil tanker, was sent through the NWP without seeking permission, to test the NWP’s viability for connecting Alaskan oilfields to the US East Coast.  Canada objected on the basis that an accident could cause significant pollution in their pristine Arctic lands. While not happy with the circumstances, Canada sent icebreakers to escort the vessel, realizing that such an accident would be their problem, and they had insufficient naval power to stop the US. While the trip was successful, the Trans-Alaska Pipeline proved to be a more economically viable solution given the ice conditions in the NWP.

Then, in 1985, the US Coast Guard sent the icebreaker USCGC Polar Sea through the NWP without seeking Canada’s consent. While Canada protested, there was nothing they could do about it, lacking military assets capable of deterring the Americans. As a political rather than legal solution, Canada and the US signed the 1988 Arctic Cooperation Agreement, in which the US agreed to seek Canada’s consent before future transits, and Canada agreed to approve them. The US did not, however, agree to recognize Canadian sovereignty over the NWP.

These early FONOPs were completely consistent with current US approaches to freedom of navigation, challenging the legitimacy of excessive territorial maritime claims, as it believes in freedom of navigation as a global principle. Its stance on the NWP, however, is more driven by geopolitical leverage.

By asserting navigational rights in the NWP, the US sets a precedent for similar actions demanding the Russians allow navigational rights through the NSR. However, the US did not take its dispute with Canada to international courts for two reasons. First, if Canada had won international recognition of the NWP being Canadian internal waters, Russia could use that precedent to claim full sovereignty over the NSR, denying the US and its allies access. Second, if the US had won, there would be no way to prevent Russian and Chinese ships from accessing the waters of the NWP at will. At present they honor Canada’s claim to avoid undermining their own.

US–Russia Dispute Over the NSR

While Russia does not claim the entire NSR goes through Russian internal waters, it does enforce strict control over transit, claiming that it crosses through its sovereign territory (“in particular, the Vilkitsky, Shokalsky, Sannikov and Laptev straits”), as defined by Russia’s application of “straight baselines.” Shown graphically on this map. A comparison with Canada’s claims shows they are based on effectively identical principles, which they contend are fully consistent with UNCLOS, while the US insists that as international straits they should be open to free navigation.

Russia points out that since it is impossible to transit the NSR without going through Russian internal sovereign waters because of climactic and ice conditions, Russia is allowed to establish a single navigation regime for the entire NSR.

For the right to use the NSR, significant transit fees are charged, permits are required, and Russian escorts must be allowed on every transiting ship. The current geopolitical situation, in which many countries have extensive economic sanctions against Russia, it is difficult for potential clients of the NSR to pay the fees, both for legal reasons as well as lack of access to Russian banking services. This currently restricts access to the NSR to primarily Russian and Chinese ships.

This situation has led to significant increases in FONOPs near Russian Arctic waters and therefore to a similarly increased Russian and Chinese military presence in the Arctic. Given the fact that geophysical forces are likely to increase navigability of the NSR while continuing to choke off the NWP, the US has seemingly more to gain from challenging Russian claims, though in the long term, when the NWP becomes fully navigable some decades in the future, the US has a lot to lose if their challenge is successful as such a precedent could give Russia and China reciprocal access to the NWP and the North American Arctic.

Conclusion: Trump’s Arctic Strategy

At present, the US and EU combined contribute about 22% of the roughly 37.2 billion metric tons of global CO2 emissions, and if they change nothing, by 2050 their proportion will decline to about 12% of a total of 50 billion metric tons, mostly due to increased economic activity in the Global South. If the US and EU cease all carbon emissions tomorrow, global emissions will still increase over the next two decades!

The Serenity Prayer says, “Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.” Is it possible that Trump’s resurgent interest in the Arctic, combined with the recent withdrawal of the US from the Paris Climate Accords are all part of the same strategic calculus? After all, while Arctic temperatures are clearly warming (whether anthropogenic or not), even a total elimination of all US carbon emissions will do nothing to alter the current trajectory.

As Arctic shipping lanes open more and more each year, Arctic natural resources like rare earth minerals and oil become more accessible, and populations gradually migrate northward over time as the climate of the planet changes, control over Arctic assets will surely become more and more important geopolitically.

Joseph D. Terwilliger is Professor of Neurobiology at Columbia University Irving Medical Center, where his research focuses on natural experiments in human genetic epidemiology.  He is also active in science and sports diplomacy, having taught genetics at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, and accompanied Dennis Rodman on six “basketball diplomacy” trips to Asia since 2013.