Tuesday, February 18, 2025

 

Are we trusting AI too much? New study demands accountability in Artificial Intelligence



University of Surrey





Are we putting our faith in technology that we don't fully understand? A new study from the University of Surrey comes at a time when AI systems are making decisions impacting our daily lives—from banking and healthcare to crime detection. The study calls for an immediate shift in how AI models are designed and evaluated, emphasising the need for transparency and trustworthiness in these powerful algorithms. 

As AI becomes integrated into high-stakes sectors where decisions can have life-altering consequences, the risks associated with 'black box' models are greater than ever. The research sheds light on instances where AI systems must provide adequate explanations for their decisions, allowing users to trust and understand AI rather than leaving them confused and vulnerable. With cases of misdiagnosis in healthcare and erroneous fraud alerts in banking, the potential for harm – which could be life-threatening - is significant. 

Surrey's researchers detail the alarming instances where AI systems have failed to adequately explain their decisions, leaving users confused and vulnerable. With misdiagnosis cases in healthcare and erroneous fraud alerts in banking, the potential for harm is significant. Fraud datasets are inherently imbalanced - 0.01% are fraudulent transactions – leading to damage on the scale of billions of dollars. It is reassuring for people to know most transactions are genuine, but the imbalance challenges AI in learning fraud patterns. Still, AI algorithms can identify a fraudulent transaction with great precision but currently lack the capability to adequately explain why it is fraudulent. 

 

Dr Wolfgang Garn, co-author of the study and Senior Lecturer in Analytics at the University of Surrey, said: 

"We must not forget that behind every algorithm’s solution, there are real people whose lives are affected by the determined decisions. Our aim is to create AI systems that are not only intelligent but also provide explanations to people - the users of technology - that they can trust and understand." 

The study proposes a comprehensive framework known as SAGE (Settings, Audience, Goals, and Ethics) to address these critical issues. SAGE is designed to ensure that AI explanations are not only understandable but also contextually relevant to the end-users. By focusing on the specific needs and backgrounds of the intended audience, the SAGE framework aims to bridge the gap between complex AI decision-making processes and the human operators who depend on them. 

In conjunction with this framework, the research uses Scenario-Based Design (SBD) techniques, which delve deep into real-world scenarios to find out what users truly require from AI explanations. This method encourages researchers and developers to step into the shoes of the end-users, ensuring that AI systems are crafted with empathy and understanding at their core. 

Dr Wolfgang Garn continued: 

"We also need to highlight the shortcomings of existing AI models, which often lack the contextual awareness necessary to provide meaningful explanations. By identifying and addressing these gaps, our paper advocates for an evolution in AI development that prioritises user-centric design principles. It calls for AI developers to engage with industry specialists and end-users actively, fostering a collaborative environment where insights from various stakeholders can shape the future of AI. The path to a safer and more reliable AI landscape begins with a commitment to understanding the technology we create and the impact it has on our lives. The stakes are too high for us to ignore the call for change." 

The research highlights the importance of AI models explaining their outputs in a text form or graphical representations, catering to the diverse comprehension needs of users. This shift aims to ensure that explanations are not only accessible but also actionable, enabling users to make informed decisions based on AI insights. 

The study has been published in Applied Artificial Intelligence. 

[ENDS] 

US tariffs threat a 'shock' to Canadian businesses

Agence France-Presse
February 18, 2025 

A truck prepares to enter the United States at a border crossing in Blackpool, Canada, a country which has vowed to hit back if Washington goes ahead with 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports. (AFP)

by Anne-Marie PROVOST

Donald Trump's threats of import tariffs have sent shockwaves through Canada, forcing businesses to question their dependence on the United States -- a reassessment that is creating headaches for many sectors.

"It was an absolute shock," Matthew Holmes, vice president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, told AFP. "There's an incredible anxiety that comes from the unpredictability and the uncertainty."

"It got everybody talking in Canada about (how) we can't trust this partnership anymore," he added.

Earlier this month US President Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, then granted a 30-day reprieve.

The pause, however, has done little to reassure Canadian businesses that send more than 75 percent of Canada's exports to the United States, and who worry that a trade war would lead to a recession and hundreds of thousands of job losses.

Canada must prepare for the tariffs by removing barriers to trade between provinces and diversify its export markets, Holmes said. "We need to be ready and have the infrastructure and relationships and start building those out now."

Otherwise, he said, Canadian businesses will be "really, really screwed."

- 'No quick fix' -

According to a recent survey, nine out of 10 Canadians agree on the need to lessen Canada's trade reliance on the United States.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently hosted a summit in Toronto that brought business leaders together to discuss ways of growing the Canadian economy, including removing internal trade barriers, diversifying export markets and boosting productivity.

Provincial governments and business leaders, he told delegates, must "step up and push hard" to make Canada more competitive, while acknowledging that it has been easy to just sell to the country's southern neighbor.

But that may be easier said than done, according to Robert Gillezeau, an economics professor at the University of Toronto.
"The two economies are extremely interconnected with over a trillion dollars in trade between the two countries," he told AFP, pointing to their close proximity and "longstanding good relations" for how ties developed.

"For some sectors, it'll be a little bit easier" to disentangle from the United States, Gillezeau said.

For others, "it's going to be a mess," he added. "You can't just snap your fingers and take that integrated industry and have it work with someone else or have it become fully domestic... There is no quick fix."

The food industry is a case in point.

"We've frozen our purchases of some American goods and we're looking elsewhere for alternatives," explains Mike Bono of Can-Am Food Services.

But it is not possible for the company -- which is one of the largest distributors of fruits and vegetables in Quebec and Ontario with nearly 3,000 customers including restaurants and hotels -- to find substitutes for all of its American offerings.
- Interprovincial trade barriers -

The removal of interprovincial trade barriers was flagged in a report as a way to boost Canada's economy as far back as 1940.

Ottawa led efforts to dismantle them in 2017 but hundreds of exceptions were kept in an agreement signed by the provinces.

Removing these barriers would improve productivity and increase Canadian GDP, but "would take a level of effort and coordination that we rarely see in the federation," Gillezeau said.

Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand, who wants to see these barriers abolished as soon as possible, believes that "in the face of Donald Trump's repeated threats, we must choose Canada."

She explained that removing the barriers -- such as alcohol sales restrictions, different labelling rules, varying professional licensing certifications, and independent dairy marketing boards in each province -- could lower prices by 15 percent, boost productivity and inject up to Can$200 billion into the economy.

Some are also calling for east-west oil and gas pipeline projects to be revived in order to lessen dependency on US infrastructure. Oil from western Alberta, for example, is currently shipped via a pipeline that dips into the United States before emerging in Ontario.

 

Novel insights from 26 years of monitoring highlights how moth abundances impact birds in boreal forests





University of Oulu, Finland
A Pied Flycatcher. Photo by Sami Kivelä - University of Oulu 

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A Pied Flycatcher having a lepidopteran larva in its beak - Photo by Sami Kivelä - University of Oulu

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Credit: Photo by Sami Kivelä - University of Oulu




A new study explored how changes in moth abundance affect insect-eating birds in Finland. The findings reveal that the impact of moths as a food source varies between bird groups and is generally stronger in northern areas. 

The study found a positive association between the abundance of moths (Lepidoptera) overwintering as eggs or adults and the abundance of resident or long-distance migrating forest birds, which are reliant on caterpillars as food source during their breeding season in the spring. The results indicate that early-season moth abundance significantly influences bird abundance, and particularly in the north-boreal zone. This highlights how species interactions depend on their environment and suggests that declines in insect populations could lead to declines in their bird predators.

However, a similar dependency of bird abundance on moth abundance was not found in southern and central parts of Finland, or for moths that are available for the birds later in the season.

The reason why moth abundance affected bird abundance only in northern Finland is that in the north bird breeding seasons are short, food webs are relatively simple, and temporal moth abundance fluctuations from year to year are naturally strong. Therefore, abundance changes of a particular group of insect prey more likely reflect in bird abundance in northern Finland than in central or southern Finland, explains Mahtab Yazdanian, the lead author and doctoral researcher at the University of Oulu. “In other words, birds in the north are more reliant on moth preys compared to birds in the central and southern regions of Finland.”

The study drew on 26 years of monitoring data. “This study highlights the value of long-term monitoring programmes. We are fortunate in Finland to have detailed abundance data for both moths and birds, which our study combines in full for the first time.”, explains Tuomas Kankaanpää, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oulu.

Such comprehensive temporal and spatial datasets are rare worldwide. “Complexities in the ecosystem, the food web, and the insect populations' fluctuations cascading effects on higher trophic levels like birds are really difficult to systematically study in nature where everything affects everything”, Yazdanian explains. One of the difficulties is that temporal moth abundance fluctuations from year to year are naturally strong. Large variations in abundance of insect prey are needed to reveal its importance for bird survival and reproduction.” Finland’s exceptional long-term monitoring schemes have provided this study with valuable data on almost 80 bird and 400 moth species dating back to 1993.

Deeper insights into ecological dynamics are gained, and the complexities of natural systems are better understood through the investigation of these datasets. The new study demonstrates that using long-term data in combination with information on birds’ migratory strategies and seasonal availability of different moth species facilitates uncovering regional differences in interactions between moths and their bird predators.

“Further investigations of insect abundance effects on bird populations are needed, especially in areas where insect numbers are declining”, Kankaanpää continues. The next research, currently underway at the University of Oulu, aims to identify which moth species are more important as a food source for specific bird species. Technological advances in DNA meta-barcoding helps to identify multiple species from a mixed sample, for example in diet analyses, currently ongoing by another research group at Ecology and Genetics Unit.

The outcomes of the new study address the concern of insect declines and their cascading impact on ecosystems amidst global changes. The results suggest that conservation strategies should consider the entire food web, including the preservation of insect populations, to support bird conservation efforts.

The research team was led by the University of Oulu and included experts from Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Finnish Museum of Natural History (LUOMUS), University of Lapland, and Vrije Universiteit Brussel.

The research article Evidence for bottom-up effects of moth abundance on forest birds in the north-boreal zone alone was published in the highly esteemed Ecology Letters journal in December 2024.

Read also

Light pollution has adverse effects on the overwintering of moths – new study could in part explain the decline in insect populations

Global change impacts on northern animal communities: from mechanisms to ecosystem-level implications

 

Landmark study of Chagas disease in Paraguay supports use of rapid tests to improve access to diagnosis



Combining rapid diagnostic tests with conventional serology proves to be a useful strategy for diagnosing Chagas disease in an indigenous community in the Paraguayan Chaco



Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)





Rapid tests could be used to diagnose Chagas disease in resource-limited areas, according to a study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), a centre supported by ”la Caixa” Foundation. The results of this research, published in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, show that the prevalence of Chagas in an indigenous community in Paraguay is six times higher than in the country's capital.

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is a serious public health problem in the Americas. Between six and seven million people suffer from the disease, which is mainly transmitted by insect vectors. Under-diagnosis is one of the main obstacles in the fight against the parasite, reflected in the fact that less than 1% of those affected receive treatment. Chagas is primarily diagnosed by serological techniques—the detection of antibodies to T. cruzi in the blood—during the chronic phase of the disease. To improve diagnostic access, Paraguayan health authorities proposed a new algorithm for resource-limited settings: a combination of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) followed by conventional serological tests, such as enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

"In July 2023, we conducted a two-week screening campaign in the endemic community of Casanillo (an indigenous community in the Paraguayan Chaco), involving 999 people," explains Sofía Ardiles Ruesjas, ISGlobal researcher and first author of the study. "We were able to verify the effectiveness of the combination of RDTs and serological tests compared to the standard method recommended by PAHO and WHO, which relies solely on conventional serological tests," she adds.

 

The potential of rapid tests

Although they have good sensitivity and specificity, conventional serological tests require specialised personnel and equipment, which are often in short supply in endemic regions. Even when these resources are available, access to health centres can be a challenge for local people.

The use of rapid diagnostic tests offers a new approach: they are easy to use, require only a minimal sample volume (blood from a finger prick), do not require special equipment, and ensure rapid delivery of results. The algorithm validated in the study suggests using RDTs for an initial screening of at-risk individuals in endemic areas, thereby reducing the need for serological testing to confirm positive results.

“Each participant underwent a rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and those with a positive result were confirmed using two different serological techniques (recombinant ELISA and lysate ELISA),” explains the ISGlobal researcher.

 

Variability in the prevalence of Chagas among communities

The study results of the study showed a seroprevalence (percentage of people with antibodies against T. cruzi) of 12.6% in the community of Casanillo, a figure significantly higher than the 2.1% estimated from blood banks in Asunción. This highlights the health inequalities between urban and rural areas.

The algorithm using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) showed high agreement with the standard algorithm, with a sensitivity of 94.6% and a specificity of 98.6%. These results are crucial for public health initiatives, as they validate the combined use of RDTs and conventional serology, an algorithm proposed by Paraguayan health authorities for resource-limited settings.

“The results obtained are particularly relevant in the context of a global re-evaluation of guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of Chagas disease,” says Irene Losada, coordinator of the Chagas Initiative at ISGlobal and senior author of the study. “The adoption of RDT-based algorithms adapted to each region could improve access to diagnosis for thousands of people in remote areas,” she concludes.

 

Reference

Ardiles-Ruesjas, S., Lesmo, V., González-Romero, V., Cubilla, Z., Chena, L., Huber, C., Rivas, M. J., Saldaña, P., Carrascosa, A., Méndez, S., Sanz, S., Becker, S. L., Alonso-Padilla, J., & Losada, I. (2025). Prevalence and diagnostic accuracy of different diagnostic tests for Chagas disease in an indigenous community of the Paraguayan Chaco. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases19(2), e0012861. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012861

 

Magnesium and boron isotope evidence for the generation of arc magma through serpentinite mélange melting

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Science China Press

Mg-B isotope modelling for arc magma genesis. 

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In the upper two panels show modelling results of the contamination of depleted mantle (DM, yellow stars) by (1) serpentinite-derived fluids, and by (2) fluids derived from the slab crust materials. The lower two panels show the modeling results of mixing DM with (3) a serpentinite-dominated mélange, and (4) the subducted slab crust materials.

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Credit: ©Science China Press

Subduction zones serve as a critical link between Earth’s surface and deep layers, playing a vital role in the global cycling of materials. Arc volcanism are widely observed in oceanic subduction zones, but their formation processes and mechanisms remain a topic of significant debate. Previous studies commonly suggest that these rocks are formed by mantle melting triggered by slab-derived fluids. However, this model struggles to explain the correlated isotopic variations in elements such as Sr and Nd observed in these rocks. Some researchers have proposed a sediment-dominated mélange melting model, yet this approach also falls short due to the inherent geochemical characteristics of sediments and their derived fluids, which cannot account for the heavy Mg isotopic signatures of arc volcanic rocks.

“How to find the appropriate method to decode the formation of arc magma? This is one important problem in solid Earth science.” Said Yi-Xiang Chen, the leading author of the paper, who is a professor from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) located in Hefei, eastern China.

To tackle this problem, the research team led by Professor Yi-Xiang Chen, focused on volcanic rocks and forearc serpentinites from the South Sandwich Island arc. This arc, located in the South Atlantic between South America and Antarctica, is a globally significant and geologically simple system. Utilizing a novel tracer approach combining magnesium (Mg) and boron (B) isotopes, the team demonstrated the advantages of these isotopes in tracing arc magma formation. Their findings unveiled a new mechanism: the formation of arc volcanic rocks through the melting of serpentinite-dominated mélanges.

The South Sandwich Island arc is an ideal natural laboratory for such studies due to its young age, tectonic simplicity, and minimal continental influence. The study led by Chen's team discovered that volcanic rocks and forearc serpentinites in this region exhibit high δ26Mg and δ11B values. Considering the Mg and B contents and isotopic compositions of mantle and slab-derived fluids, these features cannot be explained by traditional models of slab-fluid metasomatism. Mass balance calculations reveal that less than 3% of fluid mass is sufficient to explain the B isotopic composition of these rocks. However, accounting for their heavy Mg isotopic signatures would require over 60% of fluid addition, a scenario that contradicts established geochemical observations (Figure 1).

“It is unlikely for adding fluid with a mass fraction of 60% into the mantle.” Chen explains. This suggests that some processes other than fluid metasomatism must have played an important role in the formation of island arc. “What about the partial melting of serpentinite-dominated mélanges? The heavy Mg isotopic signatures can be easily explained by incorporation of the serpentinite component.” Chen thought.

Building on their previous research on serpentinites, the team proposed a model involving the diapiric rise and partial melting of serpentinite-dominated mélanges in the shallow mantle wedge. This model effectively explains the coupled heavy Mg-B isotopic signatures of arc volcanic rocks (Figure 2). The mélange is predominantly composed of serpentinites with heavy Mg isotopic compositions, along with minor contributions from sediment or altered oceanic crust (Figure 2). Geochemical simulations further indicate that this model not only aligns with the trace elemental and Sr-Nd isotopic characteristics of SSI magmas but also accounts for their systematically heavy Mg-B isotopic compositions (Figure 1).

“Our result demonstrates that the combined use of Mg-B isotopes not only effectively identifies recycled components in the mantle source of island arcs but also provides new insights into the mechanisms of subduction material recycling.” Chen said.

Although joint studies of Mg-B isotopes in island arc magmatic rocks are still limited, recent data suggests that volcanic rocks from other island arc systems, such as the Lesser Antilles and Mariana arcs, also exhibit heavy Mg-B isotopic compositions. Chen believes that these results indicate that serpentinite-dominated mélange diapiric melting may play a broader role in the formation of arc volcanic rocks globally, although this idea warrants further investigation. If this process indeed significantly contributes to arc volcanic rock formation worldwide, it necessitates a thorough re-examination of volatile cycling in subduction zones and the mechanism of crust-mantle interactions.

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The serpentinite-dominated mélange was initially formed at the slab-mantle interface, which is primarily composed of forearc serpentinite along with minor sediments and possibly other slab-derived materials. The mélange rises as diapirs into the overlying hot mantle wedge due to its buoyancy and low viscosity, which then melts along with the surrounding mantle rocks and eventually forms the arc magmas.

Credit

©Science China Press

See the article:

Magnesium and boron isotope evidence for the generation of arc magma through serpentinite mélange melting

https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwae363