El Nino to continue into mid-2024, threatening agriculture

Boats and houseboats are seen stranded at David's Marina, as the water level at a major river port in Brazil's Amazon rainforest hit its lowest point in at least 121 years on Monday, at the Rio Negro river in Manaus, Brazil on Oct 16, 2023.

PHOTO: Reuters

OCTOBER 20, 2023 

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SANTIAGO - The El Nino weather phenomenon will last at least through the first half of 2024, according to the latest United Nations forecasts, with abnormal rainfall due across Latin America raising fears for the agricultural sector.

Pacific sea surface temperatures soared in recent months, "with stronger warming along the South American coast," said the report from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) accessed by Reuters on Thursday.


Forecasts for the first quarter of 2024 show more rain than usual in southern cone countries such as Peru and Ecuador, as well as Mexico, alongside ongoing dry conditions in Brazil, Guyana and Suriname.

The current dry spell in Central America however is set to last only until the end of this year.

The report also stresses that agriculture, which includes crops, livestock, forests and fishing, is particularly vulnerable given the sector can absorb 26 per cent of economic losses during extreme weather conditions and up to 82 per cent during drought.

Key fish species like anchovies and tuna on the northern coast of Peru and southern Ecuador are particularly at risk, it said.

Ecuadorian fishermen reported a 30 per cent decrease in tuna catching since February, it said.


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The El Nino and its opposing La Nina weather patterns have impacted the production of key crops such as wheat, rice and corn in Latin America, which are highly dependent on raw materials.

Extreme conditions brought by El Nino is hitting the region but it is also simultaneously facing climate change effects such as heat waves, said the report.

The FAO said it has launched a plan to mobilize financial resources for vulnerable communities in several countries affected by the extreme weather.

Source: Reuters