Report: U.S. Latinos, America’s Labor Force, and the ICE Agenda
U.S. Latinos, 20 percent of the American population, are driving national economic growth. The Latino Donor Collaborative’s new report details the whys and wherefores as immigrant arrests, detentions and deportations increase.
First, here are some highlights of the LDC report. (The LDC is a nonpartisan research organization and does not lobby or endorse specific legislation, as policymakers use its data at the local, state, and federal levels to inform economic development, workforce and immigration strategies.)
“Now valued at $4 trillion with an annual average real growth rate of 4.4 percent, U.S. Latino GDP is the second-fastest growing among the world’s ten largest economies, trailing only China and on par with India, and outpacing countries like France, Canada, and the rest of the United States.” Current U.S. GDP is $27.6 trillion, according to estimates from World Economics.
The growth of gross domestic product, or GDP, is the sine qua non of a capitalist economy.
On that note, U.S. GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025, after a 2.4 percent rise in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
According to the LDC report, “U.S. Latino GDP is projected to rank as the world’s fourth largest by 2029, surpassing Japan and Germany by the end of the decade.” That is less than five years away. These economic numbers suggest a rise in the political power of the U.S. Latino population. Economics and politics are a unity, though not always easy to see.
Speaking of working people, the LDC report spotlights the outsize contributions to growth from Latinos residing stateside. “Despite comprising 19.5 percent of the U.S. population, the U.S. Latino cohort was responsible for 28.3 percent of total additions to national GDP between 2017 and 2022. The 10 largest state Latino economies, including California, Texas, Florida, and New York, are all growing faster than their non-Latino counterparts.”
What else does the data above mean in the current moment under President Trump and the GOP-controlled House and Senate? We turn to the recently signed One Big Beautiful Bill legislation.
One of its features is tax cuts for the wealthy and increased federal spending for immigration arrests, detention and deportation. On one hand, an influx of more taxpayer dollars for Immigration and Customs Enforcement will create new employment opportunities. For example, these new workers will spend their wages to buy goods and services and spur growth in the consumer economy.
On the other hand, ICE workers do not care for, feed and shelter the working population. It requires care, food and shelter to live. Thus, industries such as agriculture, domestic care and construction are vital to the lives of other workers.
Recall that the term essential workers arose during the pandemic. Essential workers are central, not peripheral, to the nation’s economic output and the well-being of the entire working class, including those born in the U.S. Further, their well-being extends past care, food and shelter.
For more details, we turn to Ben Zipperer, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, based in Washington, DC. According to his research, ICE arrests, detentions and deportations of noncitizen workers would also harm U.S.-born workers, an impact that has yet to appear on the public radar screen.
“Immigrant workers make up a substantial part of the workforce in the United States: 1 in 5 workers is an immigrant, and about half of immigrants are noncitizens,” according to Zipperer. “Because of their sizable presence in the workforce, large-scale attempts to remove them will lead to extensive employment losses for foreign-born workers. What is less apparent, however, is the impact that arrests, detentions, and deportations of immigrants will have on millions of U.S.-born workers who will lose their jobs. The widespread job losses for both immigrants and U.S.-born workers will undercut the narrative that abruptly removing immigrants will somehow magically increase employment opportunities for U.S.-born workers.”
Employment opportunities increase when the economy grows. When growth decreases, employment opportunities shrink. All things being equal, workers of all birthplaces want job gains. Magic is not part of this equation.
Fewer than half of ICE arrests under Trump are convicted criminals
Tim Henderson, Stateline
Thu, July 24, 2025
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 04: A woman cries after her husband is detained by federal agents escort after exiting an Intensive Supervision Appearance Program office on June 04, 2025 in New York City. Federal agents are arresting immigrants during mandatory check-ins, as ICE ramps up enforcement following immigration court hearings. The Trump administration has ordered officials to increase detentions to 3,000 migrants per day. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Despite Trump administration rhetoric accusing Democrats of protecting violent criminals and drug-dealing immigrants, the administration’s arrests have been catching a smaller share of criminals overall, and a smaller share of people convicted of violent and drug crimes, than the Biden administration did in the same time frame.
While the Trump administration has caught more immigrants with convictions for drugs and violence, their share of the rising arrest numbers is smaller, as more people get swept up for minor traffic violations or strictly immigration crimes, according to a Stateline analysis.
Forty percent of the nearly 112,000 arrests by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) from Jan. 20 through late June were of convicted criminals. That’s compared with 53% of the nearly 51,000 arrests for same time period in 2024 under the Biden administration.
The share of people convicted of violent crime fell from 10% to 7% and drug crimes from 9% to 5%, according to a Stateline analysis of data from the Deportation Data Project.
The project, led by attorneys and professors in California, Maryland and New York, collects and posts public, anonymized U.S. government immigration enforcement datasets obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests.
Some Democratic states are among those with the highest share of violent criminals in this year’s ICE arrests: Hawaii (15%), Vermont (13%), and California and Nebraska (12%) — while some of the lowest shares were in more Republican states: Maine (2%), and Alabama, Montana and Wyoming (3%).
Immigration attorneys see an increased push to arrest and detain immigrants for any type of violation or pending charge as President Donald Trump pushes for higher arrest and detention numbers to meet his campaign promise for mass deportation. Trump officials have called for 3,000 arrests a day, far more than the current average of 711 as of June and 321 a day during the same time period under Biden.
The majority of recent ICE detentions involve people with no convictions. That’s a pattern I find troubling.
– – Oregon Republican state Rep. Cyrus Javadi
Arrests have accelerated since about mid-May, when government attorneys began asking to revoke bail and arrest people who show up for court hearings after being released at the border, said Vanessa Dojaquez-Torres, practice and policy counsel for the American Immigration Lawyers Association, which represents more than 16,000 immigration attorneys.
“We’re not completely sure what the reasoning or the goal is behind some of these policies, other than they want detention numbers up,” Dojaquez-Torres said.
“They seem to have really been struggling to get their deportation numbers up, and so I think that’s one of the reasons why we see a lot of these policies going into effect that are meant to kind of circumvent the immigration court process and due process.”
Arrests of people convicted of violent crimes increased by 45% from about 5,300 to 7,700 compared with last year. For drug crimes, the increase was 21% — and they fell as a share of total arrests, from 9% under the Biden administration to 5% this year.
Resentment against Albuquerque ‘deliveristas’ may have sparked viral Walmart ICE arrest
Arrests for those not convicted of any crime nearly tripled to about 67,000, and increased from 47% to 60% of arrests.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security defended ICE arrests Wednesday. Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement that the agency was “targeting dangerous criminal illegal aliens and taking them off American streets. Violent thugs ICE arrested include child pedophiles, drug traffickers, and burglars.”
In Oregon, arrests during the first part of last year increased from 51 under the Biden administration to 227 under the Trump administration, with those not convicted of any crime increasing from 34 to 137. Those with convictions for violent crime increased from 3 to 16. Even some Republicans are concerned with the new emphasis on non-criminals.
“The majority of recent ICE detentions involve people with no convictions. That’s a pattern I find troubling, especially when it risks sweeping up people for things like expired tags or missed court dates,” said Oregon state Rep. Cyrus Javadi, a moderate Republican representing Tillamook and Clatsop counties.
Nationally, nonviolent crimes have risen as a share of immigration arrests. The most common crime conviction for those arrested this year is driving while intoxicated, which was also the top offense last year under Biden
But this year it’s closely followed by general traffic offenses, which rose to second place from sixth place, surpassing such crimes as assault and drug trafficking.
Traffic offenses, outside of driving while intoxicated and hit and run, rose almost fourfold as the most serious conviction on record for those arrested, the largest increase in the top 10. Those offenses were followed by increases in the immigration crime of illegal entry, meaning crossing the border in secret, which tripled.
The increase in traffic violations as a source of immigration arrests is a reason for cities to consider limiting traffic stops, said Daniela Gilbert, director of the Redefining Public Safety Initiative at the Vera Institute of Justice, a nonprofit devoted to ending mass incarceration.
“It’s an important point to consider intervening in so that there can be less interaction, and so ICE has less opportunity to continue its indiscriminate dragnet of enforcement,” Gilbert said.
The institute argues in general that traffic stops should be limited to safety issues rather than low-level infractions such as expired registrations or single burned-out taillights, both because they do not improve public safety and because they disproportionately affect drivers of color.
Such policies limiting stops under some conditions are in place in 10 states and in cities in six other states, according to the institute.
The most recent state polices took effect last year in California and Illinois, while a policy is set to take effect in October in Connecticut. The most recent city policies were in Denver and in East Lansing and Ypsilanti, Michigan. Six other states have considered legislation recently.
Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org
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