Plawiuk for Premier

As I announced on Facebook this morning
Eugene Plawiuk announced today that he is throwing his hat into the ring for leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative party...."I am the only progressive in the race" he said, "the rest are Conservatives" His hat did not comment....

The Return of Harry Strom

Fellow progressive blogger Ken Chapman whom the National Post called a Left Wing Conservative says that Farmer Ed's TV speech last night is the return of the Progressive Conservatives. What he really means is the Peter Lougheed Conservatives.

Premier Stelmach Brought Progressive Conservative Politics Back to Alberta Tonight

Well it sure did sound like the platitudes voiced by the old Lougheed government. However he is so bland and boring that despite the Lougheed platitudes he is actually the ghost of Harry Strom.

Nice try Ken. But you can't make a purse out of a sows ear. Or compare the dynamism that was Alberta in 1971 under Lougheed with the dour dull plodding regime of Tired Old Tories that now rules. Nice try though. And congrats for getting quoted in the Pest.



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Harpers Equalization

King Stephen I will be on a whirlwind trip across Canada today to make equalization payment announcements that have nothing to do with equalization, provincial resource rights or the Atlantic Accord.

Instead in Nova Scotia he will re-announce military spending, in Saskatchewan he will re-announce bio fuel spending. And he will be going solo having not bothered to inform the Premiers of the respective provinces of his pending dog and pony show on their turf.

This is strictly a show for the Conservative Federal Government, to pretend they did not screw these two provinces in their last budget.

The fact that there is no new money being announced, just a rehash of previous announcements is straight out of the Ralph Klein playbook.

For years the Alberta government has announced, re-announced, and announced yet again funding announcements.

It is euphemistically called buying votes.


SEE:

Tories Blame Premiers for Equalization Crisis

Chickens, Home, Roost

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Stelmach Tanks

After the blow out in Calgary Elbow the Stelmach government tries to make amends by appointing three more Calgarians, and one Edmonton MLA who is Ukrainian and a popular a former Liberal, to cabinet.


To add insult to injury they are not even real cabinet ministers, they are mere 'associates'. You know like WalMart Associates.

Unfortunately it is too little too late.

Honeymoon Officially Over For Stelmach Government

CALGARY/AB--(Marketwire - June 23, 2007) - A new Ipsos Reid poll finds a substantial decline in support for the Ed Stelmach-led Progressive Conservatives. The Progressive Conservatives currently have the backing of 47% of Alberta's decided voters, down 12 points from 59% just two months ago (April). This returns the Progressive Conservatives to the same level of voter support they achieved in the 2004 Alberta provincial election. In fact, all four major parties have returned to exactly where they stood in the last election. Among decided voters, 29% say they would vote Liberal, 10% would vote New Democrat and 9% would vote for the Alberta Alliance Party.

A look at voter support by region produces some telling results for the Progressive Conservatives. In Calgary, Stelmach's party has the support of 42% of decided voters. This is a decline of 8-points from the 50% support the Progressive Conservatives achieved in the last election. In contrast, the Progressive Conservatives are up 12 points in the Edmonton CMA (47% today vs. 35% in election) and up 2-points in the rest of Alberta (53% today vs. 51% in election).

SEE

• Stelmach Blames Eastern Bums
• Terrror In Tory Town
• Calgary Elbow Goes Liberal
• It's A Sweep
• Alberta Election Results
• Where's The NDP?
• Election Day In Alberta

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Drumheller Bell Weather

As I wrote here urbanization and the transformation of rural cities into suburban metropolis vs. the rural roots of the P.C.'s was exposed in the bell weather by-election Tuesday.

Drumheller voted solidly Liberal despite the rest of the rural riding voting Conservative.

The Conservatives comfortably held onto Drumheller-Stettler, the rural former riding of Shirley McClellan, who retired after having served in senior cabinet jobs like finance minister and deputy premier. However, the Liberals finished second there. In 2004, they didn't bother running a candidate against McClellan.

the Liberals winning Drumheller's city vote even as it lost the overall seat, clearly signals "that the Klein era is over," Taft said.

The Stelmach government is relying upon their rural base to hold up their tired old party. In fact they even went as far as to sic their California Golden Boy Republican rabid right whingnut Ted Morton on the urban complainers.

Sustainable Resource Development Minister Ted Morton spoke to municipal leaders in Banff -- an address the mayor says included a deliberate slight at Calgary.

According to Morton's speaking notes, he said: "Calgary by itself is a good, but not a great, city. What makes Calgary a great city -- the best in Canada as far as I'm concerned -- is what surrounds it. The working farms and ranches, the Foothills, mountains and rivers."

While there was no tape of the speech, Morton provided a copy of his speaking notes

With no apology or remonstration from Stelmach, Morton supplied his notes to the media day's before the by-election. This from a government with a fetish for secrecy.

Morton like Stelmach relied upon the rural vote for his run for Party Leader. Morton's base came from the south where a strong American/Republican tradition exist's in the Mormon population and among other big ranchers and farmers who are evangelical Christians.

With a boom in the province, rapid development of bedroom communities, urban sprawl in Fort McMurray, and the million person populations in Edmonton and Calgary spill over into rural communities making them the new suburbs.

Thus the fall of Calgary Elbow, Ralph's old seat, to the new Alberta Voter.

"It's not the byelection I would put as much stock into. It's the trend line," said Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Calgary's Mount Royal College. "There's been a series of little steps, all going down."

After losing three Calgary ridings to the Liberals in 2004's election, Tory fortunes in Calgary took a turn for the worse in December's leadership race. The city's pick, former treasurer Jim Dinning, sewed up every riding in town but lost the race to Ed Stelmach, a farmer from up north and the last choice of Calgary voters. And according to some rural Stelmach supporters - who gloated afterward that they had properly stuck a thumb in the eye of the big city - that was exactly the point.

Then came Mr. Stelmach's Cabinet choices - dominantly rural, with just three Calgarians of 18 (even though the city represents a third of the province's population).

Stelmach and Morton and their rural PC base see this as a threat to their vision of "Conservative" Alberta. That rural base was originally Social Credit, and transfered its loyalty to the PC's after the Lougheed era. Ralph Kleins victory as Leader was the result of the dissident rural Social Credit base voting PC and Calgary voting PC merging in a campaign opposing the candidate, Nancy Betkowski, from Edmonton.

The old riding of Buffalo-Stettler was also the exiled home of former Premier Don Getty when he lost his Edmonton Whitemud riding to Liberal Percy Wickman. Having the Premier as your MLA meant as usual lots of government largess.

And as a result Stettler has become another urbanized suburb, complete with a Burger Baron and nice paved highways. The Burger Baron phenomena in Northern Alberta, reflects the integration of immigrants, in this case the chain is owned by Lebanese Canadians,into Alberta's white Christian rural culture.

Stettler remains a solidly Tory stronghold, as it was once a Socred stronghold. But it also suffered a low voter turn out which does not show the real intention of voters.

But the sea change in Drumheller shows that come the next provincial election, the split in the province will be between the urban centres and the rural hinterland.

And like the regime of Harry Strom, the last time that scenario was played out the Socreds went down to defeat in 1971 to the Lougheed PC's.

In 1968, Earnest Manning stepped down as leader of the Social Credit party after winning a massive majority on a very small popular vote, and he was replaced as leader and premiere by Strom in that same year. The following year, in 1969, the seat Manning had held for decades, Calgary Strathcona, fell to Progressive Conservative William Yurko.

While Ralph Klein’s history is quite different from Manning, the progress of events since he stepped down as leader is eerily familiar. In 2004, Klein won a large majority on a fairly shaky popular vote (under 50% when he’d won nearly 70% in the 2001 election). He then announced his retirement, and by the end of 2006, had stepped down in favour of his replacement, Ed Stelmach. The following year (that would be 2007, this year), Klein’s old seat in Calgary-Elbow fell to Liberal representative Craig Cheffins (in the by-election this past Tuesday).

Albertans almost defeated the lame duck PC's in 1993, Ralph's first term as premier was a race between him and Laurence Decore of the Liberals. Hindered by the lame duck premiership of Don Getty, the party was soundly thrashed at the polls, but still won. Like the defeat of the Socreds before them, they saw the 1993 election as a warning.

Today we have another lame duck premier, and one whose charisma and leadership screams Harry Strom. Lucky for him the Liberals also suffer from the same lame duck leadership.

SEE

• Stelmach Blames Eastern Bums
• Terrror In Tory Town
• Calgary Elbow Goes Liberal
• It's A Sweep
• Alberta Election Results
• Where's The NDP?
• Election Day In Alberta

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Stelmach Blames Eastern Bums

For the loss of Calgary Elbow, the riding which was home to Ralph Klein and held by the Tories for 36 years. No really. It's not his fault. Its all dem Eastern Bums and creeps that ruined it for the Tories. You remember them they are the folks that Ralph his-self denounced back in the eighties. Well they are back.

Stelmach says the Liberals won the Calgary-Elbow seat in a byelection Tuesday because the city's voters are grumpy over growth pressures caused by a huge influx of new residents. The premier says it's unfortunate that 36,000 people have moved into Alberta over the last five months, driving up rents and creating a greater need for new roads, schools and health facilities.

Right-o, blame 'immigrants' to Alberta for the problems, even if they are fellow internally migrating Canadians from the East. At the same time claiming to need foreign workers to make up for the labour shortages in the province. But at least they are temporary you don't need to feed and house slave labour, no wait you do.

Stelmach was in cabinet before he was Premier at like the rest of the tired Tories he refuses to take responsibility for losing the byelection or the lack of planning for the boom,or the choking off of infrastructure funding for a decade. And he even has the temerity to blame them for the lack of apartments and rent gouging by Real Estate Income Trusts (REIT).

Ed sounds just like good old Ralph and a lot like Jacques Parizeau after he lost the Referendum.

Calgary Elbow was a referendum on Stelmach and his stay the course gang. He lost a solid blue seat that was held by his predecessor.

But the loss of Calgary-Elbow should concern the premier, said University of Calgary political scientist David Taras.

"This was the premier's riding - this is a riding that was rock solid, and now it's fallen," he said.

"The argument is, if Elbow can fall, what Tory seat is safe in Calgary?"

It's the first time the Liberals have ever had four seats in Calgary. The Tories hold the remaining 19.

"What a slap in the face for the Conservatives," said Keith Brownsey, who teaches political science at Calgary's Mount Royal College. "It's been Conservative since its inception. It should've been a cakewalk."

Tuesday's result in Calgary appeared to echo recent polls suggesting that Tory efforts to handle Alberta's hyper-inflated economy have not found favour.

A Leger Marketing poll of more than 900 Albertans in late May suggested support for the Tories has slipped well under 50 per cent and in Calgary has dropped 27 points to 40 per cent. Those findings mirrored the results of a Cameron Strategy poll of more than 900 Albertans over roughly the same period.

Even King Ralph was almost struck speechless; "I never lost an election," said Klein, winner of three municipal races in his days as Calgary mayor and four straight majority romps as premier.

Ouch.


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Premier Taft?

Picture this; Kevin Taft,



Alberta's Next Premier

Werner doesn't think so, and it appears neither do some other Liberals now that they see their chance at grabbing the brass ring. Though with leadership like his perhaps it is time for a change.

"Have (Calgary voters) stampeded to the Alberta Liberals? "No, they haven't, but a change is beginning to open up," said Taft.

And a careful read of voting patterns show that long-time Tories haven't switched wholesale to the Alberta Liberals (who suffer their own growing rump of doubters in the abilities of leader Kevin Taft) as much as they have simply stayed home.

Rod Love, former chief of staff to Klein and once nicknamed "Ralph's brain," offered some other context.

"Lest your viewers think the Liberals are about to sweep the province, the Liberal vote in Calgary Elbow went down by 100 votes," he told MDL. "The story is the Conservative vote went down 3,000 votes. It's a good thing they didn't go across the street, as we say, or Mr. Taft would have been a much happier guy."

The Tories now hold 61 of the legislature's 83 seats. The Liberals are second with 16. The NDP have four and the Alliance had one. There is one Independent.

Love noted the Liberals won 32 seats to the Tories' 51 in the 1993 provincial election, Klein's first as leader. "To us, that was an earthquake, and we won."

That was the Liberals under former Redmonton Mayor Laurence Decore and Taft ain't no Decore.

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Terrror In Tory Town

The Party of Calgary is kaput. As the by-election in Ralph Kleins riding of Calgary Elbow shows.

said one senior Tory strategist. "Here's the [former] premier's riding and nobody wanted to run."

So instead their candidate ran as a Liberal.

And once on the hustings, things were evidently hostile enough that local reporters observed Mr. Heninger on one doorstep remarking that he would personally like to "choke" Mr. Stelmach for crimes against Calgary.

With even their own candidate unable to defend the government record, several Tories admitted ahead of the byelection that the bigger surprise would be if Mr. Heninger somehow managed to prevail.

Why vote for a disgruntled Tory when you can vote for a real Liberal.

Having dominated the province under King Ralph, the Party of Calgary saw a political sea change with the loss of the leadership race by Jim Dinning, the 'liberal' Calgary candidate.

Now the next election portends a Liberal sweep in Calgary and an Opposition sweep in Edmonton between them and the NDP.

Leaving the PC's with the rural ridings. Just like what happened to Harry Strom.




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This Is What Alberta Democracy Looks Like

Well not really. More like the limitations of representative parliamentary government. In the Drumheller-Stettler by-election 1/3 of eligible voters cast their vote. The riding has 21, 790 voters and only 7144 voted. Of these 4,180 voted PC.

1/4 of voters decided on keeping the status quo. While it is a sweep, its one with a threadbare broken down broom. With this level of voter apathy, a general election could present a whole new picture.

What is more interesting is how the opposition vote breaks down.

The opposition to the PC's came from the Social Credit party and the Liberals. The Liberals and Socreds were tied most the of night until the Liberals broke away and got 14% to the Socreds 12%.

The Independent candidate an Alberta Separatist got 7% of the vote beating out the Alberta Alliance which got 5%, the Green Party which got 3% while the NDP got 1%.

Taken together the Separatist and the Alliance split the Socred vote.

But contrary to the wet dreams of some of the right a unified right wing of the Alliance, Separatists and Socreds would still not come close to defeating the PC's.

In the sprawling riding of Drumheller-Stettler, east of Calgary, Jack Hayden successfully raised the Tory standard once again in a region his party has won by lopsided margins ever since it was wrested from the Social Credit party in 1979.

Jack Hayden, a local councillor and a former rural campaign lieutenant for Premier Ed Stelmach, handily defeated a field of challengers to take the seat held by former deputy premier Shirley McClellan.

Ms. McClellan resigned in January after holding the riding for two decades.

What they would do is offer vote splitting on the right giving the Liberals a better opening come the next election.


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Calgary Elbow Goes Liberal

Whew this is a horse race. But the Liberals are poised to take Ralph Kleins old riding of Calgary Elbow a long time safe PC seat.

They have been in the lead since the polls started coming in. With 69/77 polls in we are predicting that the Liberals have a winning lead at 44%. Through out they have been ahead of the PC's 43% to 38%.

Like King Ralph's victories this Liberal victory is won by a few hundred votes.

The vote difference between the Alberta Alliance 5% and the Social Credit Party 2% shows vote splitting on the right. Combined they would have had 7% of the vote, while the Green Party got 6%. The NDP a measly 4%. The Independent got 1%. All told this opposition to the Tories was worth 18% of the popular vote. Another good reason for PR.

The impact of the SC, AA and Green vote on the Conservatives have been enough to allow the Liberals to squeak past.


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Election Day In Alberta

There are two by-elections in Alberta today. One in Calgary in Ralph Kleins old riding, one he often only won by the skin of his teeth, and the other in Drumheller. Both will be a bell weather for the Ed Stelmach regime as well as an indication of how well the 'other' parties will do including how they will do against not only the provincial P.C.'s but against the Harpocrite domination of this province federally. Any vote against the One Party State will also be a vote against the disinterested Federal Conservatives who take us for granted.

Alberta by-elections seen as referendum on new Tory leader

Disgruntled voters in Alberta

Solid conservative support wavering in Drumheller

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Return of the Progressive Conservatives

On CTV's Question Period yesterday ousted Nova Scotia Conservative MP Bill Casey called himself an Independent "Progressive" Conservative, "emphasis on the progressive", he said.

Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams also declares himself a "Progressive" Conservative in opposition to the Harpocrites and is carrying out a Anybody But Conservative federal election campaign.

Add to that this weekends rejection of the Conservative Governments equalization bait and switch by the "Progressive" Conservative Premier of Nova Scotia and we see the beginnings of a new movement to recognize the political reality of truly "Progressive" Conservatives.

The party that former Nova Scotia PC leader Peter Mackay opportunistically scuttled, after agreeing in writing not to, in order to try to be leader of the political Frankenstein known as the Reform/Alliance/PC/Conservatives.

Bill Casey is breathing a sigh of relief after Premier Rodney MacDonald called on Nova Scotia members of Parliament yesterday to vote against the federal budget.

"Premier MacDonald called me today and told me," the Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley MP said in a phone interview from his Amherst home yesterday.

"I was just really surprised," he said.

Casey won support from many Nova Scotians last week after voting against the federal budget.

He was immediately tossed out of the party after the vote.

Casey now considers himself an Independent Progressive Conservative.

Also glad is Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia president Scott Armstrong.

"It makes things very easy for people in northern Nova Scotia if the premier and our MP Bill Casey are singing from the same song sheet," Armstrong said.

"Bill Casey's really done Nova Scotia a favour."

With the Liberals abandoning Nova Central, MacKays riding, to Elizabeth May and the Greens, her brand of "Progressive" conservatism will likely appeal to Conservative voters disgusted with the Harpocrites and Howdy Doody MacKay.

In Nova Scotia, satisfaction with Ottawa declined from 50 per cent in February to 37 per cent in May, while dissatisfaction rose from 41 per cent to 56 per cent.

A Red tide could sweep the Maritimes next federal election, not just Liberals but Red Tories; the "Progressive" conservatives, Casey, May etc.

Nova Scotians have long memories – and the Conservative government knows it. There are people down here who are still bitter over the fact that Stanfield, the late Progressive Conservative leader, never became prime minister. To this day Stanfield is commonly referred to in these parts as "the best prime minister Canada never had."

The Tories' expulsion of Casey, who was first elected in 1988, has upset Nova Scotians.

People say they elected him to represent their interests, not play the part of a trained seal in Ottawa.

In Truro and elsewhere in the riding, Casey is being cast as the quiet-spoken constituency man who stood up to the bullies in Ottawa.

"It seems to have struck a nerve because I'm getting emails from all over Canada. ... I am truly overwhelmed because all I am doing is asking the government of Canada to honour a signed agreement," Casey told the Star yesterday.

Meanwhile, angry callers to talk radio shows want to know why fellow Nova Scotia Tory MPs Peter MacKay, who is foreign affairs minister, and Gerald Keddy (South Shore-St. Margaret's) didn't have the guts to stick up for their home province.

See:

Tory Cuts For All

You Tell 'em Danny Boy

Red Tories Are Progressives

Conservatives New Nanny State

No Room for Red Tories

Canada's New Progressive Right

Elizabeth May and Red Tories

Liberals The New PC's

PC=Liberals

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