How Americans View Future Harms From Climate Change in Their Community and Around the U.S.

63% expect climate impacts to worsen in their lifetime

BY ALEC TYSON AND BRIAN KENNEDY

A monsoon-like storm and flash flood leave homes in Thermal, California, covered in mud on Sept. 2, 2023, days after Tropical Storm Hilary had drenched the area. (David McNew/Getty Images)

How we did this

A new Pew Research Center survey finds a majority of Americans think climate change is causing harm to people in the United States today and 63% expect things to get worse in their lifetime.

When it comes to the personal impact of climate change, most Americans think they’ll have to make at least minor sacrifices over their lifetime because of climate change, but a relatively modest share think climate impacts will require them to make major sacrifices in their own lives.

July 2023 was hotter than any other month in the global temperature record, and the United Nations climate panel has warned of growing impacts from climate change barring major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.

The Center survey of 8,842 U.S. adults conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 1, 2023, finds that 43% of Americans think climate change is causing a great deal or quite a bit of harm to people in the U.S. today. An additional 28% say it is causing some harm.

Looking ahead, young adults ages 18 to 29 are especially likely to foresee worsening climate impacts: 78% think harm to people in the U.S. caused by climate change will get a little or a lot worse in their lifetime.

About a quarter of Americans (23%) think they’ll have to make major sacrifices in their everyday lives because of climate change. A larger share (48%) expects to make minor sacrifices because of climate impacts and 28% of Americans expect to make no sacrifices at all.

Republicans and Democrats have much different expectations for how climate change will impact their lives. Just under half of all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents expect to make no sacrifices in their everyday lives because of climate change. By comparison, 88% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents expect to have to make at least minor sacrifices.

These partisan gaps are closely tied to differing expectations about national impacts: 86% of Democrats expect harms from climate change in the U.S. to get worse during their lifetime; just 37% of Republicans say the same.

More broadly, the public believes individual Americans can make less of a difference on climate change than other major actors. For example, 55% think the energy industry can do a lot to reduce the effects of climate change and 52% say this about large businesses and corporations. By comparison, far fewer (27%) say individual Americans can do a lot to reduce climate impacts.

Climate change consistently ranks lower than other national issues like the economy, health care and crime on the public’s list of national priorities for the president and Congress. Nonetheless, 74% say the U.S. should participate in international efforts to address the issue and majorities support a number of specific policies intended to reduce the effects of climate change, such as providing a tax credits to businesses for developing carbon capture and storage technologies.

Views on climate activism

Despite widespread concern about future climate impacts there has been a slight decline in participation in forms of climate activism. The survey finds 21% of of U.S. adults say they have participated in at least one of four climate-related activities in the last year, including donating money to a climate organization or attending a climate protest. This is down slightly from two years ago when 24% of Americans said they had participated in a climate-related activity.

Furthermore, Americans are largely skeptical that climate activism builds public support for the issue or spurs elected officials to act. Just 28% think climate activism makes people more likely to support action on climate change and only 11% say it is extremely or very effective at getting elected officials to act on the issue. For more, read Chapter 3 of the report, “Climate activism.”

Consistent with the slight decline in levels of climate activism, there has been no increase in personal concern on the issue in recent years. Overall, 37% say they personally care a great deal about the issue of climate change. This share is down 7 percentage points from 2018 and about the same as it was in 2016, the first time the Center asked the question.

How Americans view the expertise of climate scientists

A related analysis finds only about one-third of Americans think climate scientists understand “very well” whether climate change is happening. An even smaller share says climate scientists understand the causes of climate change very well.

For more, read “Americans continue to have doubts about climate scientists’ understanding of climate change.”

The survey findings are organized into three chapters exploring the following topics in more detail:

• Expectations for future climate change impacts
• What groups Americans think can make a difference on climate change
• Climate activism and engagement

Public expectations of future climate impacts locally and around the U.S.

Experts predict that some regions of the U.S. will face more severe climate impacts than others. Americans also make distinctions when asked to think about future climate impacts on some different places around the country.

Majorities expect that coastal Florida (61%), Southern California (60%) and the Southwest (55%) will become worse places to live over the next 30 years because of the effects of climate change.

Assessments of other areas are less negative. Only around three-in-ten think New England (32%) and the Mountain West (30%) will become worse places to live over the next 30 years because of climate change; 27% say this about the Upper Midwest.

Americans’ assessments of the impact of climate change on their own communities tilt more negative than positive, though a sizable share do not expect much change. Overall, 41% think their own community will become a worse place to live over the next 30 years due to the effects of climate change. Just 7% think climate impacts will make conditions in their community better, while 41% think climate impacts won’t change conditions in their area much.

Democrats (59%), young adults (56%) and Americans living in the Western region of the country (51%) are among the groups most likely to believe conditions in their community will become worse in the next 30 years because of climate change. Read more about these differences in Chapter 1.

Emotional reactions to climate news and information

Seven-in-ten Americans say they’ve felt sad about what is happening to the Earth, when they’ve seen news and information about climate change recently. Half say they’ve felt motivated to do more to address the issue when they saw climate news and information recently.

A sense of optimism about progress is not widely held: 38% say they’ve felt optimistic we can address climate change when they’ve seen news and information on the topic. A June 2023 Center survey found just 33% of Americans think the U.S. and other countries around the world will do enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Americans’ most common emotional reaction to climate news is feeling frustrated that there is so much political disagreement on the issue; 79% say they’ve felt this way recently.

A sense of skepticism toward climate advocates also registers with a sizable share of the public: 53% of Americans say they’ve felt suspicious of the groups and people pushing for action on climate change when they’ve seen climate news and information recently. An August Pew Research Center study used qualitative interviews to explore the views of those who do not see urgency on climate change; the analysis found that crisis language on climate change often drove suspicion and deeper mistrust among participants who see climate change as a lower-tier priority.

Republicans and Democrats have starkly different emotional responses to news and information on climate change.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaners:

• 88% say they felt sad about what is happening to the Earth.
• 73% felt anxious about the future.
• 72% felt motivated to do more to address the issue.

Still, fewer than half of Democats (45%) say they felt optimistic about addressing the issue when they’ve seen climate news and information recently.

Among Republicans and Republican leaners:

• 78% felt suspicious of the groups and people pushing for action on climate change.
• 58% felt annoyed there is so much attention on the issue of climate change.
• 51% felt confused about all the information out there about climate change.

Despite broad skepticism within the GOP toward groups pushing action on climate change, half of Republicans say they felt sad about what is happening to the Earth when they recently came across climate news and information.

One sentiment that registers with large shares of Republican and Democrats alike is frustration that there is so much political disagreement over climate change: 86% of Democrats and 73% of Republicans express this feeling.

Americans continue to have doubts about climate scientists’ understanding of climate change

BY GIANCARLO PASQUINI AND BRIAN KENNEDY

Only about one-third of Americans think climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is happening, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. And only about a quarter or less say climate scientists understand very well the effect climate change has on extreme weather, its causes and the best ways to address it.

How we did this

Americans rate climate scientists’ understanding of aspects of climate change slightly lower than they did two years ago and the same or lower than in 2016.

The share of Americans who say climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is occurring decreased from 37% in 2021 to 32% this year.

Similarly, the share of Americans who say climate scientists understand the causes of climate change very well decreased slightly from 28% in 2021 to 24% today. And only 13% of Americans now say climate scientists understand very well the best ways to address climate change, down from 18% in 2021.

Analysis of recent scientific publications finds widespread agreement among climate scientists that human activity is the primary cause of climate change. The Center recently conducted in-depth interviews to better understand the views of adults who say climate change is not an urgent issue and are unconvinced human activity is its main cause.

Partisan differences in views of climate scientists

Democrats continue to rate climate scientists’ understanding much higher than Republicans do.

When asked how well climate scientists understand whether climate change is happening, 52% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say climate scientists understand this very well. In comparison, 51% of Republicans and Republican leaners say climate scientists understand this not too or not at all well.

Democrats are also four times as likely as Republicans to say climate scientists understand very well how climate change affects extreme weather events (40% vs. 10%). Scientific studies have found that extreme weather events will become more frequent and intense with climate change.

When it comes to the causes of climate change, 41% of Democrats say climate scientists understand this very well, compared with 7% of Republicans. About six-in-ten Republicans (59%) say climate scientists understand this not too or at all well.

Small shares of both Democrats and Republicans say climate scientists understand very well the best ways to address climate change, though Democrats are more likely to say this (23% vs. 4%, respectively). Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to say climate scientists understand this not too or at all well (71% vs. 24%).

Differences by education level and party

Democrats with more education rate climate scientists’ understanding higher than Democrats with less education. But how Republicans rate scientists’ understanding of aspects of climate change does not differ by education level. For example:

• 72% of Democrats with a postgraduate degree say climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is occurring. In comparison, 36% of Democrats with a high school degree or less say this – a 36 percentage point difference.
• Small shares of Republicans across education levels think climate scientists understand very well whether climate change is happening: 13% of Republicans with a postgraduate degree say this, as do 10% of Republicans with a high school degree or less.

These patterns also hold when Democrats and Republicans are asked about climate scientists’ understanding of the causes of climate change and its effect on extreme weather.

Past Center surveys have found that views about the role of human activity also vary by education level among Democrats but not Republicans.

Views of climate scientists’ influence on policy

When asked about climate scientists’ role in policy debates about climate change, half of Americans say they have too little influence. This share is down 4 points from 2021.

Smaller shares say climate scientists have too much (26%) or about the right amount of influence (22%) in policy debates.

In keeping with the wide partisan differences in ratings of climate scientists’ understanding of aspects of climate change, Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided about the appropriate role of climate scientists in policy debates.

Three-quarters of Democrats say climate scientists have too little influence in policy debates about climate change, while one-quarter of Republicans say the same – a difference of 50 points. About half of Republicans (49%) think climate scientists have too much influence.

There are also ideological divides within the GOP on climate scientists’ policy influence. Conservative Republicans are about twice as likely as moderate and liberal Republicans to say climate scientists have too much influence in public policy debates (60% vs. 29%).

Note: Here are the questions used for this analysis, along with responses, and its methodology.

Giancarlo Pasquini is a research associate focusing on

 science and society research at Pew Research Center.

Brian Kennedy is a senior researcher focusing on

 science and society research at Pew Research Center.



Next: 1. Views on future climate impacts, environmental harms

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Majority of US adults believe climate change is most important issue today

by American Psychological Association

Infographic: Majority of U.S. Adults believe climate change is most important issue today. Credit: American Psychological Association

As the effects of climate change become more evident, more than half of U.S. adults (56%) say climate change is the most important issue facing society today, yet 4 in 10 have not made any changes in their behavior to reduce their contribution to climate change, according to a new poll by the American Psychological Association.

While 7 in 10 say they wish there were more they could do to combat climate change, 51% of U.S. adults say they don't know where to start. And as the election race heats up, 62% say they are willing to vote for a candidate because of his or her position on climate change.

The survey was conducted online from Dec. 12-16, 2019, by The Harris Poll on behalf of the American Psychological Association.

People are taking some steps to combat climate change, with 6 in 10 saying they have changed a behavior to reduce their contribution to climate change. Nearly three-quarters (72%) say they are very or somewhat motivated to make changes.

Among those who have already made behavior changes to reduce their contribution to climate change, when asked why they have not done more, 1 in 4 (26%) cite not having the resources, such as time, money or skills, to make changes. Some people are unwilling to make any changes in their behavior to reduce their contribution to climate change. When those who have not changed their behavior were asked if anything would motivate them to reduce their contribution to climate change, 29% said nothing would motivate them to do so.

Infographic: Most common behavioral changes people have made or are willing to make to reduce their contribution to climate change. Credit: American Psychological Association

Concern about climate change may be having an impact on mental health, with more than two-thirds of adults (68%) saying that they have at least a little "eco-anxiety," defined as any anxiety or worry about climate change and its effects. These effects may be disproportionately having an impact on the country's youngest adults; nearly half of those age 18-34 (47%) say the stress they feel about climate change affects their daily lives.

"The health, economic, political and environmental implications of climate change affect all of us. The tolls on our mental health are far reaching," said Arthur C. Evans Jr., Ph.D., APA's chief executive officer. "As climate change is created largely by human behavior, psychologists are continuing to study ways in which we can encourage people to make behavioral changes—both large and small—so that collectively we can help our planet."

Psychological research shows us that when people learn about and experience local climate impacts, their understanding of the effects of climate change increases. A quarter of those who have not yet made a behavior change to reduce their contribution to climate change say personally experiencing environmental impacts of climate change (e.g., natural disasters, extreme weather conditions) (25%) or seeing environmental impacts of climate change in their community (24%) would make them want to try to reduce their contribution to climate change.

Infographic: Reasons people report for not doing more to address climate change Credit: American Psychological Association

The most common behavior changes people have already made or are willing to make include: reducing waste, including recycling (89%); upgrading insulation in their homes (81%); limiting utility use in their homes (79%); using renewable energy sources, such as solar panels or purchasing electricity from a renewable energy supplier (78%); consuming less in general (77%); or limiting air travel (75%).

Adults are less likely to say they have changed or are willing to change daily transportation habits (e.g., carpool, drive an electric or hybrid vehicle, use public transportation, walk or bike) (67%) or their diet (e.g., eat less red meat or switch to a vegetarian or vegan diet) (62%).

A majority (70%) also say that they have already or are willing to take action such as working with their community to reduce emissions, for example by installing bike paths, hosting farmers markets, or using community solar panels. And nearly 6 in 10 (57%) say that they have already or are willing to write or lobby elected officials about climate change action with a similar proportion (57%) saying they already have or are willing to join an organization or committee working on climate change action.

The most common motivations for behavior changes among those who have taken action to reduce their contribution to climate change are wanting to preserve the planet for future generations (52%), followed by hearing about climate change and its impacts in the news (43%).

Scientists seek urgent action on impacts of climate change on reptiles and amphibians

Climate change will cause global tensions, say US intelligence services

Issued on: 22/10/2021 

A wind-driven wildfire burns near power line tower in Sylmar, California, U.S., October 10, 2019. 

© Gene Blevins, REUTERS
Text by: NEWS WIRES

US intelligence services said Thursday for the first time that climate change poses wide-ranging threats to the United States' national security and stability around the world.

More extreme weather "will increasingly exacerbate a number of risks to US national security interests, from physical impacts that could cascade into security challenges, to how countries respond to the climate challenge," the White House said in a summary of the intelligence reports.

The prediction was made in the first official assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, or ODNI, which oversees the sprawling US intelligence apparatus.

The document "represents the consensus view of all 18" elements in the intelligence community, the White House said.

According to the agencies, climate change is driving "increased geopolitical tension as countries argue over who should be doing more," cross-border "flashpoints" as countries respond to climate change impact by trying to secure their own interests, and fallout from climate on national stability in some countries.

On a practical level, US national security bodies will be integrating climate change effects into their planning, the White House said.

The Pentagon, for example, will consider climate change "at every level, which will be essential to train, fight, and win in an increasingly complex environment."

Migration, a politically sensitive issue on the US southern border, will also be seen partly through the lens of climate change, the White House said.

"This assessment marks the first time the US government is officially recognizing and reporting on this linkage."

The report was issued just ahead of the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, which President Joe Biden will be attending.

"With more than 85 percent of global emissions coming from beyond US borders, we alone cannot solve this challenge. We need the rest of the world to accelerate their progress," a senior US official, who asked not to be identified, told reporters.

"It is definitely a security issue and a national security issue."

A separate government report issued later Thursday characterized climate-related risk as "an emerging threat to financial stability of the United States," according to the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

Recommendations included directives for regulators to require additional climate disclosures of companies and other regulated entities and consider mandates for them to undertake "scenario analysis" on climate outcomes.

"This report puts climate change squarely at the forefront of the agenda," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at a meeting of the FSOC, which was set up after the 2008 financial crisis.

Yellen described the report as a "critical first step" as she called for immediate action, saying "the longer we wait to address the underlying causes of climate change, the greater the risk."

(AFP)

Gov't reports say climate change affecting immigration, national security in U.S.


Vehicles wait at the U.S.-Mexico border to enter the United States on March 21. File 

Photo by Ariana Drehsler/UPI | License Photo

Oct. 21 (UPI) -- The White House and the entire U.S. intelligence community each issued key reports on Thursday that underscore the harm posed by climate change as it relates to priorities like national security and immigration.

The White House report examines the climate impacts on migration, and the intelligence assessment weighs a broader scope of the potential damage.

The latter report -- which is the first to include a consensus on climate change from all 18 elements of the U.S. intelligence community -- outlines a number of areas of vital U.S. interest that are under threat from global warming.

"Geopolitical tensions are likely to grow as countries increasingly argue about how to accelerate the reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions," the 27-page National Intelligence Estimate on Climate states.

"Forecasts indicate that intensifying physical effects of climate change out to 2040 and beyond will be most acutely felt in developing countries, which we assess are also the least able to adapt to such changes."

The report also said the physical impact of climate change is likely to "exacerbate cross-border geopolitical flash points as states take steps to secure their interests."

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Defense Department, Homeland Security Department and National Security Council contributed to the assessment.

The White House said in its report that there's a definitive link between climate change and immigration, and that Thursday was the first time the U.S. government is recognizing the cause and effect.

"The accelerating trend of global displacement related to climate impacts is increasing cross-border movements ... particularly where climate change interacts with conflict and violence," the 37 page report, titled "The Impact of Climate Change on Migration," states.

Recommendations in the White House report include creating an interagency policy process on climate change and migration, improving analytics, establishing programs and investments into climate change mitigation and legislative action to address the crisis.

The recommendations in the reports reflect a pledge by President Joe Biden to make climate change a central tenet of foreign policy and national security.

"The climate crisis is reshaping our physical world, with the Earth's climate changing faster than at any point in modern history and extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe," the White House added.

"We are already experiencing the devastating impacts that climate has wreaked on almost every aspect of our lives, from food and water insecurity to infrastructure and public health, this crisis is exacerbating inequalities that intersect with gender, race, ethnicity and economic security."

The sweeping assessments released on Thursday came one day after a study found that almost 100 of scientific studies agree that the cause of climate change is human activity.

"It's pretty much case closed for any meaningful public conversation about the reality of human-caused climate change," one expert in the study said.

US regulators endorse efforts to address climate risks


Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen listens as President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with business leaders about the debt limit in the South Court Auditorium on the White House campus, Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. financial regulators on Thursday approved a series of steps toward addressing the dangers that climate change poses to the nation’s financial system.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council, which is headed by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and includes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, acknowledged in a report that climate change is a serious economic threat.

“Climate-related impacts in the form of warming temperatures rising sea levels, droughts, wildfires, intensifying storms and other climate related events are already imposing significant costs upon the public and the economy,” the council’s 133-page report says. “It is the responsibility of the council and its members to ensure the financial system’s resiliency to climate related risks.”

The report includes more than 30 proposals aimed at improving efforts to the assess risks. It put forward recommendations to upgrade the collection of risk data and also ways of making sure the public has access to the data.

The report was released 10 days before a United Nations conference on climate change in Glasgow, Scotland. It signals the Biden administration’s intention to tell the broader international community that it is putting together the policy architecture to address climate change and improve the resilience of financial markets.

With the United States lagging behind the European Union and the United Kingdom in responding to climate change’s economic threats, the administration hopes to use the report to assert more leadership on the issue.

As recommended by the report, a special advisory committee would be established of scientists, Wall Street executives, business and labor leaders, environmentalists and others to help develop standards for monitoring the economic impacts of climate change.

The report also advises identifying and filling gaps in data for assessing how climate change could threaten the economy, including the sharing of data across the federal government and with international counterparts.

The council approved creation of two climate advisory panels that will report to the group on a regular basis to keep officials informed of progress being made.

Companies and government agencies would also have new standards for public disclosures about the climate, a move designed to make it easier for the markets to appropriately weigh the impacts of climate change and the potential savings from reducing those impacts through measures like the use of renewable energy.

Yellen called the changes approved by FSOC an “important first step” but said they were by no means the end of the group’s effort to better incorporate the assessment of climate threats into the regulatory process.

She said the severe weather events of this summer from the wildfires in the West to Hurricane Ida along the Gulf Coast demonstrated the need for action.

Powell, calling climate change a “significant challenge for the global economy and the financial system,” said the Fed was committed to doing its part in such areas as using more sophisticated analyses to better assess climate risks.

Yellen has made addressing climate change a top priority since joining the Biden administration.

Environmental groups, however, said they were disappointed that the FSOC did not make more ambitious recommendations.

“Financial regulators can and must act to rein in Wall Street’s contributions to the climate crisis,” said Ben Cushing, the manager of the Sierra Club’s fossil-free finance campaign. “This report is a step in the right direction, but bolder action from regulators is necessary in order to protect our economy from the climate crisis.”

FSOC is an umbrella panel made up of the heads of the government’s top financial regulatory agencies. It was created by Congress in 2010 to address serious problems in coordination between agencies that had been revealed by the 2008 financial crisis.

The report and its recommendations were approved by all members of the panel with the exception of Jelena McWilliams, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., who abstained on the grounds she felt more information was needed before reaching a conclusion. McWilliams was appointed to the FDIC by then-President Donald Trump.

US: More threats, more desperate refugees as climate warms

By JULIE WATSON, ELLEN KNICKMEYER and NOMAAN MERCHANT

In this Oct. 13, 2021, file photo, a firefighter watches as smoke rises from a wildfire in Goleta, Calif. Worsening climate change requires that the United States do much more to track and manage flows of migrants fleeing natural disasters. That's the finding of a multiagency study from the Biden administration. President Joe Biden ordered the assessment. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu, File)


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Earth’s warming and resulting natural disasters are creating a more dangerous world of desperate leaders and peoples, the Biden administration said Thursday in the federal government’s starkest assessments yet of security and migration challenges facing the United States as the climate worsens.

The Defense Department for years has called climate change a threat to U.S. national security. But Thursday’s reports by the departments of Defense and Homeland Security, National Security Council and Director of National Intelligence provide one of the government’s deepest looks yet at the vast rippling effects on the world’s stability and resulting heightened threats to U.S. security, as well as its impact on migration.

They include the first assessment by intelligence agencies on the impact of climate change, identifying 11 countries of greatest concern from Haiti to Afghanistan.

Another report, the first by the government focusing at length on climate and migration, recommends a number of steps, including monitoring the flows of people forced to leave their homes because of natural disasters, and working with Congress on a groundbreaking plan that would add droughts, floods and wildfires and other climate-related reasons to be considered in granting refugee status.

The climate migration assessments urge the creation of a task force to coordinate U.S. management of climate change and migration across government, from climate scientists to aid and security officials.

Each year, storms, the failure of seasonal rains and other sudden natural disasters force an average of 21.5 million people from their homes around the world, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees says. Worsening climate from the burning of coal and gas already is intensifying a range of disasters, from wildfires overrunning towns in California, rising seas overtaking island nations and drought-aggravated conflict in some parts of the world.

“Policy and programming efforts made today and in coming years will impact estimates of people moving due to climate-related factors,” said the report, one of dozens of climate change assessments President Joe Biden ordered from federal agencies. “Tens of millions of people, however, are likely to be displaced over the next two to three decades due in large measure to climate change impacts.”

The Biden administration is eager to show itself confronting the impacts of climate change ahead of a crucial U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, that starts late this month. That’s especially so as Biden struggles to get lawmakers to agree to multibillion-dollar measures to slow climate change, a key part of his domestic agenda.

As part of its push Thursday, the administration released the first-ever national intelligence estimate on climate change, a document intended to signal the importance placed on the issue. National intelligence estimates are benchmark documents created by U.S. intelligence agencies that are intended to inform decision-making and analysis across the government.

Notably, U.S. intelligence agencies concluded it was probably already too late to keep the warming of the planet at or below the level laid out in the 2015 U.N. Paris climate accord. While that level remains the official goal for the United States and United Nations, many scientists have concluded the Earth’s temperature will rise at least several more tenths of a degree, a level of warming that brings even more damage and threatens some nations’ existence.

“Given current government policies and trends in technology development, we judge that collectively countries are unlikely to meet the Paris goals because high-emitting countries would have to make rapid progress toward decarbonizing their energy systems by transitioning away from fossil fuels within the next decade, whereas developing countries would need to rely on low-carbon energy sources for their economic development,” the intelligence report said.

No nation offers asylum or other legal protections to people displaced specifically because of climate change. The United States has the opportunity to change that, which could prompt others to follow suit, refugee advocates said.

The administration said it is not seeking to change international agreements on refugees but rather create U.S. laws that would allow climate change effects to be part of a valid claim for refugee status.

It noted that activists persecuted for speaking out against government inaction on climate change may also have plausible claims to refugee status.

Ama Francis, who has been helping the International Refugee Assistance Project find ways to protect climate refugees, applauded the administration’s recognition that global warming should be taken into account.

“That’s a huge signal from the U.S. government that our refugee and asylum system can protect people right now, which is important because there are thousands of climate displaced people already on the move, including those showing up at the U.S. border,” Francis said.

It’s imperative the report turn into legislation that allows climate refugees the ability to resettle in the United States, and not just result in another task force, others said.

Krish O’Mara Vignarajah, president of the Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service, one of nine U.S. agencies working to resettle refugees, said action is needed because the current U.S. humanitarian protection system “wasn’t engineered for cascading natural disasters, mass aridification or large swath of lands consumed by rising seas.”

According to the separate intelligence assessment, a warming planet could increase geopolitical tensions particularly as poorer countries grapple with droughts, rising seas and other effects, while they wait for richer, higher-polluting countries to change their behavior. Climate change will “increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests,” according to the estimate.

The estimate identifies 11 countries of particular concern: Afghanistan, Colombia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Iraq, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea and Pakistan. It also lists two regions of concern: Central Africa and small island states in the Pacific Ocean.

Strains on land and water could push countries further toward conflict. In South Asia, much of Pakistan relies on surface water from rivers originating in India. The two countries are nuclear-armed rivals that have fought several wars since their founding in 1947. On India’s other side, about 10% of Bangladesh’s 160 million people already live in coastal areas vulnerable to rising seas and saltwater intrusion.

Intelligence officials who spoke on condition of anonymity under agency rules said climate change could indirectly affect counterterrorism by pushing people seeking food and shelter to violent groups.

The intelligence community needs more scientific expertise and to integrate climate change into its analysis of other countries, the officials said.

Rising temperatures could force almost 3% of the populations of Latin America, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa — more than 143 million people — to move within their countries in the next 30 years, according to one forecast cited in the report.

____

Watson reported from San Diego. AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein contributed.