Could Automation of Jobs Replace 12 Million Workers in Europe by 2040?


David Paul
20 January 2022,


New research has found that millions of workers could lose out to autonomous robots over the next 20 years.

Workers across Europe could find that the automation of jobs will replace them by 2040, according to new research.

Around 12 million jobs will be automated over the next 20 years, with roles that consist of simple, routine tasks the most at risk of being replaced.

Forrester’s Job Forecast 2020-2040 found that the market will begin to decline because Europe’s biggest economies will have millions fewer people of working age.

The research also indicated that the automation industry would create nine million jobs in Europe’s five biggest economies over the same period.

In the analysis of European countries, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, Forrester found that the retail, food services, and leisure and hospitality sectors would see the most automation.

Commenting on the report, Forrester analyst Michael O’Grady said that the pandemic will also be a catalyst for this change: “Lost productivity due to Covid-19 is forcing companies globally to automate manual processes and improve remote working.

“The pandemic is just one factor that will shape the future of work in Europe over the next two decades, however.”

O’Grady added that EU firms can make use of robotics for job replacement as the working-age population begins to decline, and routine low-skilled jobs become more easily automated.

According to the report, Europe’s five biggest economies will have 30m fewer people of working age in 2040 than last year.

Mid-skilled jobs, which make up 38% of the workforce in Germany, 34% of the workforce in France, and 31% of the workforce in the UK, will see the biggest automation rates. Around 49m jobs in Europe were at risk from automation, Forrester said.

“As a result, European organisations will invest in low-carbon jobs and build employees’ skills. Soft skills such as active learning, resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility – something robots aren’t known for – will complement worker automation tasks and become more desirable,” said Forrester.

Discussions around the increase in automation to replace skilled workers have been a point of contention over the last few years as work on robotics and artificial intelligence continues.

As far back as October 2020, a report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) indicated that millions of jobs done worldwide could be carried out by some type of machine by 2025.

WEF’s Future of Jobs Report 2020 commented that machines could ‘eliminate’ around 85m jobs usually carried out by workers by the quarter century, and highlighted the importance of reskilling of staff to ensure they are prepared for the future of work.

Sectors like oil and gas have already begun discussing plans to replace workers with robots by 2030.

A report from Rystad Energy in March 2021 said that the sector could saving billions of dollars on reduced labour costs if positions were filled by existing technology like robotics.

One of the main area for consideration was drilling, where companies could not only see enormous savings but protect workers from highly labour intensive and dangerous tasks.