The Pentagon Pizza Index: Late Night Munchies and Global Crises

By Michael Kern - Jul 13, 2025

• The Pentagon Pizza Index theorizes that a sudden increase in pizza orders near the Pentagon often precedes major global military or political events.
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• The logic behind this theory is that Pentagon and intelligence staff order pizza when working late due to brewing crises.
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• Historical "coincidences," such as spikes in pizza orders before the US invasion of Grenada and Operation Desert Storm, have made this pattern difficult to ignore for journalists and open-source investigators.

I came across a fascinating article on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty about the so-called Pentagon Pizza Index, a quirky theory suggesting that surges in late-night pizza deliveries to the Pentagon signal major geopolitical events. Ashamedly, I have to admit, it was my first time hearing about this indicator. Intrigued by the idea that something as ordinary as pizza orders could hint at global crises, I dug deeper into historical examples and other unconventional indicators. What I found is a pattern that’s hard to dismiss, blending open-source intelligence (OSINT) with everyday behavior to spot when the Pentagon is abuzz with activity. Here’s what I uncovered about this peculiar index and its surprising correlations with major conflicts, along with other rogue signs to look for that could suggest something big might be brewing.

Historical Instances of the Pentagon Pizza Index

Grenada Invasion (1983)

In October 1983, the U.S. invaded Grenada to oust a Marxist regime amid Cold War tensions. On the eve of the operation, pizza deliveries to the Pentagon nearly doubled, according to Frank Meeks, a Domino’s franchise owner in the Washington, D.C., area. His drivers reported an unusual flurry of orders to government buildings, a pattern that aligned with late-night planning sessions as the Reagan administration prepared for the surprise invasion. This early example set the stage for the Pizza Index’s reputation as a curious predictor of military action.

Operation Desert Storm (1991)

As the U.S. geared up for Operation Desert Storm in January 1991, pizza orders to the Pentagon and CIA spiked dramatically. Meeks again noted his delivery teams working overtime to supply government offices, with reports indicating a near doubling of late-night orders. The surge coincided with intense preparations for the Gulf War, as coalition forces readied to expel Iraqi troops from Kuwait. This correlation caught the attention of journalists, cementing the Pizza Index as a quirky but persistent theory.

Panama Invasion (1989)

In December 1989, the U.S. launched Operation Just Cause to remove Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega. The night before, pizza deliveries to the Pentagon reportedly doubled, mirroring the Grenada pattern. Frank Meeks’ Domino’s outlets were inundated with orders, with drivers noting heightened security and activity at government facilities. This spike aligned with late-night strategy sessions, adding another data point to the growing legend of the Pizza Index.

Kosovo Conflict and Clinton Impeachment (1998)

December 1998 was a chaotic period, with the U.S. launching Operation Desert Fox against Iraq while President Bill Clinton faced impeachment hearings. During this time, pizza deliveries to the White House and Pentagon surged, with The Washington Post reporting a 32% increase in extra-cheese pizza orders to the White House alone. Meeks’ drivers confirmed a similar uptick at the Pentagon, suggesting that simultaneous crises—military and political—kept staff fueled with late-night pizza.

Iran-Israel Conflict (2024–2025)

More recently, the Pizza Index has gone digital, with social media accounts like @PenPizzaReport on X tracking real-time delivery trends. On April 13, 2024, as Iran launched drone and missile attacks on Israel following a consulate bombing, pizzerias near the Pentagon saw “busier than usual” indicators on Google Maps and delivery apps. Similar spikes occurred before the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in 2024. In June 2025, surges on June 1 and June 12–13 preceded Israel’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and a U.S. bombing campaign against Iranian facilities, reinforcing the index’s relevance in the OSINT era.

Other Potential Indicators

The Pentagon Pizza Index isn’t the only unconventional signal of brewing crises. Analysts and OSINT enthusiasts have identified other patterns of life that deviate during high-stakes moments, offering additional clues about government activity. Below are some of the most intriguing.

Increased Lights in Government Buildings

When Pentagon or White House offices stay lit late into the night, it’s often a sign of intense activity. During the Gulf War and other crises, observers noted more office lights on at odd hours, suggesting staff were burning the midnight oil. This simple visual cue, visible from public vantage points or satellite imagery, complements delivery data as a marker of unusual government operations.

Rideshare and Traffic Activity

Spikes in Uber or Lyft activity near government facilities can indicate an influx of personnel, from military officials to crisis consultants. During the 2024 Iran-Israel conflict, OSINT analysts cross-referenced pizza surges with rideshare data, noting increased drop-offs at the Pentagon. Unusual traffic patterns around military bases, detectable via apps like Waze, also hint at heightened activity.

Unusual Flight Patterns

Military aircraft movements, tracked via platforms like Flightradar24, often signal preparations for operations. Before major Middle East conflicts in 2024 and 2025, OSINT trackers observed repositioning of U.S. Air Force bombers and transport planes. These anomalies, paired with other indicators like pizza spikes, provide a broader picture of potential military action.

Energy Consumption Spikes

Sudden increases in electricity usage at government buildings can reflect prolonged operations. Public utility data or OSINT tools have occasionally detected these spikes during crises, such as the Gulf War, when secure facilities ran at full capacity. While less accessible to the public, this indicator is a favorite among data-driven analysts.

Quiet Social Venues

When Pentagon staff skip their usual after-work haunts, it’s a red flag. The @PenPizzaReport account has noted unusually quiet nights at places like Freddie’s Beach Bar near the Pentagon, as seen during the June 2025 Israel-Iran escalations. Empty barstools on typically busy nights suggest personnel are staying late at work, possibly for crisis planning.

Hotel Booking Surges

A sudden demand for hotel rooms near defense hubs can indicate the arrival of external personnel, like contractors or visiting officials. This was observed during Operation Desert Storm and other major operations, with hotels near the Pentagon reporting unexpected bookings. OSINT trackers now monitor platforms like Booking.com for such trends.

Social Media and Delivery Driver Chatter

Delivery drivers often share stories on Reddit or X about unusual orders to government buildings. A legendary Reddit comment from a Domino’s driver claimed the Pentagon began splitting orders across multiple restaurants after a leak during the 1991 Gulf War. Such anecdotes, while anecdotal, provide human context to data-driven indicators.

Wireless Signal and Geolocation Pings

Tech-savvy OSINT hobbyists use tools like Raspberry Pi to detect Bluetooth or Wi-Fi signals from delivery drivers’ phones near government facilities. A cluster of signals at midnight near a Pentagon entrance, for instance, can confirm delivery activity. This method, though niche, has gained traction during recent crises like the 2024–2025 Middle East tensions.

Conclusion

The Pentagon Pizza Index, born from decades of curious coincidences, offers a unique lens into the rhythms of crisis planning. From the Grenada invasion to recent Middle East escalations, surges in late-night pizza orders have consistently aligned with major geopolitical events. Other indicators, like glowing office lights, quiet bars, or unusual flight patterns, complement this theory, showing how everyday behaviors can betray high-stakes activity. While the Pentagon dismisses the index as correlation without causation, its persistence, amplified by social media and OSINT tools, makes it a captivating piece of modern folklore. Next time you’re near a D.C. pizzeria, check Google Maps’ “Popular Times”—you might just spot the first sign of a global crisis in a stack of pizza boxes.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com