Trump’s Unprovoked War on Iran Triggers 10% Spike in Global Oil Prices
“When global energy security can be upended by a single flashpoint, it shows how unstable and risky our dependence on oil and gas is,” said one critic
“When global energy security can be upended by a single flashpoint, it shows how unstable and risky our dependence on oil and gas is,” said one critic
Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 1, 2026.
(Photo by Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
Brad Reed
Mar 02, 2026
COMMON DREAMS
President Donald Trump’s unprovoked, unconstitutional, and politically unpopular war against Iran is about to cause pains for Americans at the gas pump.
CNBC reported on Monday that Brent crude oil prices surged by 9.3% to a 52-week high of $79.40 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices spike by 9% to $73.10 per barrel.
This spike in oil prices is projected to directly lead to an increase in gas prices in the coming days.
Petroleum industry analyst Patrick De Haan noted in a Monday update on his Substack page that gas prices in the US had already risen by roughly six cents in the last week, and that war with Iran would drive these prices higher.
“Developments surrounding Iran—particularly any threat to regional production or shipping flows—are likely to remain the dominant driver of oil prices,” wrote De Haan, “and could keep crude elevated or push it higher if tensions intensify further.”
A Sunday research note from Wells Fargo cited by CNBC drew attention to the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian government closed off over the week and which is used to transport roughly 20% of the global supplies of petroleum and liquified natural gas.
According to Wells Fargo, a “prolonged” closure of the strait would result in “an oil shock to $100+ per barrel,” which it described as the “worst-case scenario” for global stock markets.
In addition to closing off the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has also been launching attacks on other nations’ energy infrastructure.
According to a report from Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery at Ras Tanura had to cease operations on Monday after being struck in a drone attack.
“An attack on major energy infrastructure is a nightmare scenario for global markets,” noted Bloomberg, “with maritime traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz all but halting.”
Olivia Langhoff, managing director at climate justice organization 350.org said that the global economic disruptions being caused by the Iran war shows the folly of continuing to rely on fossil fuels for energy needs.
“When global energy security can be upended by a single flashpoint, it shows how unstable and risky our dependence on oil and gas is,” Langhoff said. “Renewable energy provides homegrown power that remains secure and affordable regardless of geopolitical shocks.”
Langhoff’s comments were echoed by Mads Christensen, executive director of Greenpeace International.
“As long as our world runs on oil and gas, our peace, security and our pockets will always be at the mercy of geopolitics,” Christensen explained. “Increasing output may temporarily ease price pressures, but it does not address the structural vulnerability at the heart of this recurring crisis: the world’s continued dependence on fossil fuels.”
The increase in gas prices comes at a time when US voters have been expressing widespread dissatisfaction with the economy under Trump, as polls show voters have been particularly anxious about the prices of groceries and utilities, among other essentials.
Nicole Charky-Chami
March 2, 2026
RAW STORY
President Donald Trump visits a Whataburger in Corpus Christi, Texas on Feb. 27, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
A new economic fallout broke out Monday after President Donald Trump ordered attacks on Iran — prompting gasoline and oil prices to surge, according to reports.
Trump's military move could have a significant impact on his energy agenda and gas prices as midterms approach, something he has boasted about since his return to the White House in his second term, Bloomberg reported. As prices rise, it could be a challenge for the president and his Republican Party this fall.
"Gasoline futures jumped as much as 9% Monday as the flow of tankers carrying crude and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz all but ceased," according to Bloomberg.
The American Automobile Association reported that by Sunday, the average retail price in the United States had hit $3 a gallon, which is the highest amount in three months. Just last week, Trump claimed that gasoline reached $2.30 a gallon in most states and that the national average hit $2.98.
Gasoline and oil prices were expected to keep climbing, according to the American Automobile Association.
“Americans have very staunch beliefs on how much they should pay for gasoline,” Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, told Bloomberg. “So it does become a political liability.”
President Donald Trump visits a Whataburger in Corpus Christi, Texas on Feb. 27, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
A new economic fallout broke out Monday after President Donald Trump ordered attacks on Iran — prompting gasoline and oil prices to surge, according to reports.
Trump's military move could have a significant impact on his energy agenda and gas prices as midterms approach, something he has boasted about since his return to the White House in his second term, Bloomberg reported. As prices rise, it could be a challenge for the president and his Republican Party this fall.
"Gasoline futures jumped as much as 9% Monday as the flow of tankers carrying crude and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz all but ceased," according to Bloomberg.
The American Automobile Association reported that by Sunday, the average retail price in the United States had hit $3 a gallon, which is the highest amount in three months. Just last week, Trump claimed that gasoline reached $2.30 a gallon in most states and that the national average hit $2.98.
Gasoline and oil prices were expected to keep climbing, according to the American Automobile Association.
“Americans have very staunch beliefs on how much they should pay for gasoline,” Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, told Bloomberg. “So it does become a political liability.”
One early risk of Trump's Iran strategy is already emerging
Ben Lefebvre and James Bikales
Sun, March 1, 2026
Politico · Michael Gonzalez/AP
Ben Lefebvre and James Bikales
Sun, March 1, 2026
POLITICO
Oil prices jumped more than 10 percent Sunday night, underscoring the political risks of President Donald Trump's military strikes against Iran.
The main U.S. crude oil market opened at $75 per barrel in the first trading activity since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering retaliatory attacks on several oil tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 percent of the world’s waterborne crude oil passes.
Market analysts and geopolitical consultants are warning prices could remain high so long as hostilities around the Persian Gulf continue and quickly trickle down to gasoline prices at the pump — just as cost concerns take center stage in mid-term primary races.
“Everyone in the region that’s participating in the war knows that the Achilles heel of Trump is high oil prices,” said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk for Kpler, a commodity analyst firm.
Russian officials are also watching whether U.S. actions will drive up prices — to their benefit . “$100+ oil per barrel soon,” Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev wrote on X Saturday. The uptick in oil prices comes as Republicans face a political reality that slightly more Americans think that Democrats are the party most committed to cutting energy prices.
The Trump administration shared a photo on social media Saturday of the White House situation room during the military strike that included Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a former oil executive, but beyond that has dismissed the risk of oil price shocks.
“I’m not concerned. I’m concerned about people’s lives. I’m concerned about long term health for this country, that’s what I’m concerned about,” Trump told reporters Friday at an event in Texas touting “American Energy Dominance,” held just hours ahead of the strikes, when asked if he was concerned about oil prices.
A quick end to hostilities would justify that confidence. Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, noted in an email that gas prices have already risen in recent weeks as the likelihood of an Iran conflict rose. He said he expected only a “short-lived” increase if the conflict ends within a few weeks.
“De-escalation will bring a rapid fall in oil prices, as was the case in [Israel’s war with Iran last] June,” Brew said. “The cost to American consumers should decline well ahead of November mid-terms — unless, of course, this turns into a more protracted affair.”
But Iran has already begun retaliating by striking oil tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Trading firms that hire oil tankers are pausing shipments through the waterway given the danger, and vessels are opting to take longer — and more expensive — routes to avoid the area.
The risk of further inflaming oil markets is very real. Arab allies have warned the Trump administration in recent weeks that strikes aimed at Iranian leadership could lead Iran to retaliate in the oil markets, including by attacking oil fields and tankers in the Strait, according to three people familiar with the conversations.
White House and Energy Department spokespeople did not respond to questions about the administration’s plans to limit the effects the fighting in the Middle East will have on pump prices. But former administration officials have so far expressed trust that the White House has the matter in hand.
U.S. warplanes have so far not targeted Iran’s oil rigs or pipelines, and strikes against Iran’s navy should prevent it from placing mines in Hormuz — both things that should calm any jittery nerves in the market, said Richard Goldberg, the former senior counselor for the White House National Energy Dominance Council and director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction for the White House National Security Council.
“The oil market is always a planning consideration” for the White House, Goldberg said. “Wright coordinates incredibly closely with his Saudi counterpart, as does the president with [Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud] and others. We have many tools to communicate to the market and project the availability of supply despite risk and crisis.”
The administration could also use sanctions licenses to “essentially grab Iranian floating storage for free,” he said.
Landon Derentz, a former national security and energy official during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, said Trump has always weighed concerns around energy prices heavily, but in this case likely calculated that taking out a nuclear-armed Iran was more important.
“The affordability narrative must feature in discussions and decisions to do this,” said Derentz, who is now vice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council. “But the weight of dealing with a nuclear Iran is surmounting those concerns.”
In the short term, global crude reserves — including potentially the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve — will be able to make up for any major disruption, Derentz said. And U.S. oil companies can likely ramp up production within six to nine months, especially if incentivized by high prices.
“The next one to eight months could be the most volatile period given the uncertainty around escalation on the ground,” Derentz said. “Beyond that, underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain relatively stable.”
Trump does have some cushion for an oil price increase thanks to the boom in domestic oil production that started in the mid-2000s. Adjusting for inflation, the price of oil is far lower than it has been for decades, including through much of the U.S. war in Iraq in 2003. And unlike 20 years ago, the U.S. is now a major oil exporter, a fact Trump has consistently noted in his speeches recently.
“I think the administration may have considered how oversupplied the market is right now and assumed some level of substitution would ameliorate prices,” said David Goldwyn, a former State Department official focused on energy during the Obama administration. “Public diplomacy is essential at a time like this, and signaling to the market that there will be coordinated efforts to replace disrupted supply is at the top of the list. If they haven't thought of that already, they should be considering it right now.”
Reporters Eli Stokols and Carlos Anchondo contributed to this report.
Oil prices jumped more than 10 percent Sunday night, underscoring the political risks of President Donald Trump's military strikes against Iran.
The main U.S. crude oil market opened at $75 per barrel in the first trading activity since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering retaliatory attacks on several oil tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 percent of the world’s waterborne crude oil passes.
Market analysts and geopolitical consultants are warning prices could remain high so long as hostilities around the Persian Gulf continue and quickly trickle down to gasoline prices at the pump — just as cost concerns take center stage in mid-term primary races.
“Everyone in the region that’s participating in the war knows that the Achilles heel of Trump is high oil prices,” said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk for Kpler, a commodity analyst firm.
Russian officials are also watching whether U.S. actions will drive up prices — to their benefit . “$100+ oil per barrel soon,” Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev wrote on X Saturday. The uptick in oil prices comes as Republicans face a political reality that slightly more Americans think that Democrats are the party most committed to cutting energy prices.
The Trump administration shared a photo on social media Saturday of the White House situation room during the military strike that included Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a former oil executive, but beyond that has dismissed the risk of oil price shocks.
“I’m not concerned. I’m concerned about people’s lives. I’m concerned about long term health for this country, that’s what I’m concerned about,” Trump told reporters Friday at an event in Texas touting “American Energy Dominance,” held just hours ahead of the strikes, when asked if he was concerned about oil prices.
A quick end to hostilities would justify that confidence. Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, noted in an email that gas prices have already risen in recent weeks as the likelihood of an Iran conflict rose. He said he expected only a “short-lived” increase if the conflict ends within a few weeks.
“De-escalation will bring a rapid fall in oil prices, as was the case in [Israel’s war with Iran last] June,” Brew said. “The cost to American consumers should decline well ahead of November mid-terms — unless, of course, this turns into a more protracted affair.”
But Iran has already begun retaliating by striking oil tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Trading firms that hire oil tankers are pausing shipments through the waterway given the danger, and vessels are opting to take longer — and more expensive — routes to avoid the area.
The risk of further inflaming oil markets is very real. Arab allies have warned the Trump administration in recent weeks that strikes aimed at Iranian leadership could lead Iran to retaliate in the oil markets, including by attacking oil fields and tankers in the Strait, according to three people familiar with the conversations.
White House and Energy Department spokespeople did not respond to questions about the administration’s plans to limit the effects the fighting in the Middle East will have on pump prices. But former administration officials have so far expressed trust that the White House has the matter in hand.
U.S. warplanes have so far not targeted Iran’s oil rigs or pipelines, and strikes against Iran’s navy should prevent it from placing mines in Hormuz — both things that should calm any jittery nerves in the market, said Richard Goldberg, the former senior counselor for the White House National Energy Dominance Council and director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction for the White House National Security Council.
“The oil market is always a planning consideration” for the White House, Goldberg said. “Wright coordinates incredibly closely with his Saudi counterpart, as does the president with [Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud] and others. We have many tools to communicate to the market and project the availability of supply despite risk and crisis.”
The administration could also use sanctions licenses to “essentially grab Iranian floating storage for free,” he said.
Landon Derentz, a former national security and energy official during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, said Trump has always weighed concerns around energy prices heavily, but in this case likely calculated that taking out a nuclear-armed Iran was more important.
“The affordability narrative must feature in discussions and decisions to do this,” said Derentz, who is now vice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council. “But the weight of dealing with a nuclear Iran is surmounting those concerns.”
In the short term, global crude reserves — including potentially the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve — will be able to make up for any major disruption, Derentz said. And U.S. oil companies can likely ramp up production within six to nine months, especially if incentivized by high prices.
“The next one to eight months could be the most volatile period given the uncertainty around escalation on the ground,” Derentz said. “Beyond that, underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain relatively stable.”
Trump does have some cushion for an oil price increase thanks to the boom in domestic oil production that started in the mid-2000s. Adjusting for inflation, the price of oil is far lower than it has been for decades, including through much of the U.S. war in Iraq in 2003. And unlike 20 years ago, the U.S. is now a major oil exporter, a fact Trump has consistently noted in his speeches recently.
“I think the administration may have considered how oversupplied the market is right now and assumed some level of substitution would ameliorate prices,” said David Goldwyn, a former State Department official focused on energy during the Obama administration. “Public diplomacy is essential at a time like this, and signaling to the market that there will be coordinated efforts to replace disrupted supply is at the top of the list. If they haven't thought of that already, they should be considering it right now.”
Reporters Eli Stokols and Carlos Anchondo contributed to this report.
This is Trump's war — and he will own all that comes next
Robert Reich
February 28, 2026
Robert Reich
February 28, 2026
RAW STORY
A banner depicting Donald Trump hangs outside the Department of Justice. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper
The United States is now at war with Iran.
A single person — Donald J. Trump — has released the dogs of war on one of the most dangerous countries in the world, and done it without the consent of Congress or our allies, or even a clear explanation to the American people.
Just four days after delivering a State of the Union address in which he spoke of ending eight wars — spending just three minutes discussing Iran and a preference for “diplomacy.”
Anyone who has doubted Trump’s intention to replace American democracy with a dictatorship should now be fully disabused.
I share your despair, sadness, and fear. Even if our president was a wise and judicious man, surrounded by thoughtful advisers with impeccable integrity and wisdom, this would be a highly dangerous move.
Trump is facing the consequences of his decision in his first term to abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated with Iran by Barack Obama and backed by France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China.
Trump walked away from that treaty because it was Obama’s — and he hates Obama because Obama negotiated safeguards against Iran enriching uranium to weapons grade. Obama also got Obamacare through Congress, addressed climate change and nuclear proliferation, and was rewarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Obama was a winner. Trump is a loser. Trump cannot stomach this.
But why should America and thousands if not millions of innocent people pay the price of Trump’s egomaniacal stupidity?
Trump claimed in June to have disarmed Iran. He claimed again in his State of the Union last Tuesday to have “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear weapons program (an assertion rejected by the International Atomic Energy Agency).
Since then, Iran has taken steps to dig out the nuclear facilities hit during those strikes and it has resumed work at some sites long known to American spy agencies.
But those same spy agencies say there’s no evidence that Iran has made active efforts to resume enriching uranium or trying to build a mechanism to detonate a bomb.
Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium remain buried after June’s strikes, making it nearly impossible for Iran to build a bomb “within days,” as Trump and his lapdogs claim.
Trump says he wants “regime change.” But unlike Venezuela, the Islamic Republic has nearly a million men under arms. Any attempt to overthrow that regime will require American troops on the ground, and almost surely inflict mass casualties on Americans and on Iranians.
Besides, Trump won a second term promising “no regime change” and in 2024 he campaigned as “the first president in decades who started no new wars.”
He hasn’t prepared the American people for this. In his State of the Union he bragged again about having ended eight wars. He spent just three minutes discussing Iran and his preference for “diplomacy.”
He said Iran has refused to foreswear any nuclear weapons ambitions. Yet just hours before his address, Iran’s foreign minister reaffirmed on X that his country would "under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon."
Trump noted the Iran regime’s killing of thousands of protesters, but this hardly justifies a war that may cause the deaths of thousands more innocent civilians. (On Saturday morning, Iran’s Red Crescent said more than 60 children were killed in the strike on Shajarah Tayyebeh school in the southern town of Minab (a toll that has since been raised to 85.)
Make no mistake. The costs of this war — mayhem and deaths in the Middle East, higher oil prices (as Iran closes the Straight of Hormuz), increased risk of terrorism in Europe and the United States — could be catastrophic.
Yet Americans don’t support this war. They haven’t been told why we’re waging it. Trump’s MAGA base doesn’t want him to engage in regime change. Congress hasn’t approved this war.
Trump is going to war for himself and his boundless, malicious ego.
A banner depicting Donald Trump hangs outside the Department of Justice. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper
The United States is now at war with Iran.
A single person — Donald J. Trump — has released the dogs of war on one of the most dangerous countries in the world, and done it without the consent of Congress or our allies, or even a clear explanation to the American people.
Just four days after delivering a State of the Union address in which he spoke of ending eight wars — spending just three minutes discussing Iran and a preference for “diplomacy.”
Anyone who has doubted Trump’s intention to replace American democracy with a dictatorship should now be fully disabused.
I share your despair, sadness, and fear. Even if our president was a wise and judicious man, surrounded by thoughtful advisers with impeccable integrity and wisdom, this would be a highly dangerous move.
Trump is facing the consequences of his decision in his first term to abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated with Iran by Barack Obama and backed by France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China.
Trump walked away from that treaty because it was Obama’s — and he hates Obama because Obama negotiated safeguards against Iran enriching uranium to weapons grade. Obama also got Obamacare through Congress, addressed climate change and nuclear proliferation, and was rewarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Obama was a winner. Trump is a loser. Trump cannot stomach this.
But why should America and thousands if not millions of innocent people pay the price of Trump’s egomaniacal stupidity?
Trump claimed in June to have disarmed Iran. He claimed again in his State of the Union last Tuesday to have “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear weapons program (an assertion rejected by the International Atomic Energy Agency).
Since then, Iran has taken steps to dig out the nuclear facilities hit during those strikes and it has resumed work at some sites long known to American spy agencies.
But those same spy agencies say there’s no evidence that Iran has made active efforts to resume enriching uranium or trying to build a mechanism to detonate a bomb.
Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium remain buried after June’s strikes, making it nearly impossible for Iran to build a bomb “within days,” as Trump and his lapdogs claim.
Trump says he wants “regime change.” But unlike Venezuela, the Islamic Republic has nearly a million men under arms. Any attempt to overthrow that regime will require American troops on the ground, and almost surely inflict mass casualties on Americans and on Iranians.
Besides, Trump won a second term promising “no regime change” and in 2024 he campaigned as “the first president in decades who started no new wars.”
He hasn’t prepared the American people for this. In his State of the Union he bragged again about having ended eight wars. He spent just three minutes discussing Iran and his preference for “diplomacy.”
He said Iran has refused to foreswear any nuclear weapons ambitions. Yet just hours before his address, Iran’s foreign minister reaffirmed on X that his country would "under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon."
Trump noted the Iran regime’s killing of thousands of protesters, but this hardly justifies a war that may cause the deaths of thousands more innocent civilians. (On Saturday morning, Iran’s Red Crescent said more than 60 children were killed in the strike on Shajarah Tayyebeh school in the southern town of Minab (a toll that has since been raised to 85.)
Make no mistake. The costs of this war — mayhem and deaths in the Middle East, higher oil prices (as Iran closes the Straight of Hormuz), increased risk of terrorism in Europe and the United States — could be catastrophic.
Yet Americans don’t support this war. They haven’t been told why we’re waging it. Trump’s MAGA base doesn’t want him to engage in regime change. Congress hasn’t approved this war.
Trump is going to war for himself and his boundless, malicious ego.
Robert Reich is an emeritus professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/. His new memoir, Coming Up Short, can be found wherever you buy books. You can also support local bookstores nationally by ordering the book at bookshop.org
