Hotspots of plant invasion change from subtropical towards temperate regions

Projections plant invasion risk under future climate and land-use scenarios also indicate significant changes in alien species composition

University of Vienna

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Fig. 1: The heat-loving milkweed is increasingly spreading in the lowlands of Austria. It can form dense stands and then displace native species.

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Credit: F. Essl

An international research team led by the University of Vienna has produced, for the first time, high-resolution global maps of invasion risk for thousands of alien plant species under current conditions and future climate and land use scenarios. Their results show that global hotspots of plant invasion risk will shift geographically, with temperate regions facing increasing risks, while risks may decline in some subtropical areas. The study was published in Nature Ecology & Evolution.

The introduction of alien species into new regions by humans has become a defining signature of the Anthropocene, with an increasing number becoming widespread and exerting severe negative impacts on native species and human livelihoods. Many alien plants reduce agricultural yields, while others, such as allergenic ragweed, affect human health. Against this background, the researchers asked how global hotspots of plant invasion risk may change under future environmental conditions.

About the study

The researchers combined global data on alien plant distributions with environmental variables to model the invasion risk of 9,701 species. Using high-resolution data and robust modelling approaches, they assessed current patterns and projected future changes under different climate and land use scenarios until the end of the 21st century.

Hotspots of plant invasion are centered in subtropical regions

"Overall, we found that one third of the global land surface is currently suitable for at least 10 % of these alien species, making these areas invasion hotspots, where many alien plants are expected to occur", biodiversity researcher Ali Omer from the Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research at the University of Vienna and lead author of the study explains. He adds: "Most of these current hotspots are located in subtropical and warm temperate regions, including already large parts of Europe."

Current hotspots of plant invasion will shift poleward 

"The results indicate that while the overall extent of hotspots may increase only moderately, their distribution will change substantially", explains biodiversity expert and senior author of the study Franz Essl, University of Vienna. This finding indicates that Europe belongs to the regions facing some of the highest invasion risks worldwide.

Hotspots are expected to shift poleward into colder regions such as Central Europe and contract in increasingly hot and dry subtropical semi-arid regions. In Europe, species such as ragweed with its highly allergenic pollen and black locust, which invades forests and grasslands, are expected to become more widespread under a warming climate. Remote areas in boreal and polar regions are also projected to become more susceptible to plant invasions, causing rising negative impacts on these currently often untouched ecosystems. 

New set of alien plants replaces current alien plants

"Not only the location of the invasion hotspots but also the identity of invading species is expected to change", Ali Omer highlights an important finding of the study. Under severe climate change, there may be little overlap between current and future assemblages of non-native plant species in some regions, indicating substantial species turnover. "We expect a new set of alien plant species adapted to warmer conditions to invade many regions", Essl adds. 

Rising impacts by alien plants are expected in many densely populated areas

The study highlights the dynamic nature of plant invasions under global change. The shift of invasion hotspots towards densely populated temperate regions is likely to increase impacts on native biota and human well-being. This first high-resolution global assessment of invasion risk for thousands of alien plant species provides an important basis for developing proactive and region-specific management strategies to reduce the impacts of biological invasions under changing environmental conditions.

Summary

• Global modelling of 9,701 alien plant species under current and future conditions
• Current invasion hotspots are concentrated in subtropical and warm temperate regions
• Hotspots are projected to shift towards temperate regions under climate and land use change
• Species composition is expected to change substantially in many regions
• Increasing risks in densely populated areas highlight the need for region-specific management strategies

Fig. 2: The orange hawkweed is planted as a garden plant, and then sometimes escapes cultivation in large stands.

Credit

F. Essl

About the University of Vienna: 

At the University of Vienna, curiosity has been the core principle of academic life for more than 650 years. For over 650 years the University of Vienna has stood for education, research and innovation. Today, it is ranked among the top 100 and thus the top four per cent of all universities worldwide and is globally connected. With degree programmes covering over 180 disciplines, and more than 10,000 employees we are one of the largest academic institutions in Europe. Here, people from a broad spectrum of disciplines come together to carry out research at the highest level and develop solutions for current and future challenges. Its students and graduates develop reflected and sustainable solutions to complex challenges using innovative spirit and curiosity.

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Journal

Nature Ecology & Evolution

DOI

10.1038/s41559-026-03040-2 

Article Title

The global geography of plant invasion risk under future climate and land use changes

Article Publication Date

23-Mar-2026

Apocalypse: Lifting of the Veil

by Heather Stroud / February 16th, 2026

We are living through an age where genocide, oppression and the moral breakdown of humanity, is being revealed live on our television and mobile screens. Hostile actions that were once conducted in the shadows are no longer overt but openly covert. Targeted assassination of leaders, journalists, aid workers and doctors deemed to be in opposition, is bragged about and normalised. This moral breakdown is happening because the powers that be, consider themselves to be untouchable and beyond the Law.

That might be changing, as evidence of a grassroots pushback is emerging. The UK Government’s proscription of Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation has sparked widespread criticism, protests and defiant acts of moral courage, across the country. The ‘ordinary’ man in the street has shown him/herself to be neither ignorant, nor despite government intimidation, to be a pushover. People are intellectually capable of understanding the brevity of and urgency to address the moral decline amongst ‘global leadership’, that we are facing.

When activists smashed weapons, that would otherwise have been used to support the genocide in Gaza, they were arrested and held on remand for eighteen months. The incident took place at the Elbit Systems UK, manufacturing and research hub, in Filton. Elbit is a subsidiary weapons contractor to Elbit Systems Israel. After the arrests the government and state sanctioned media tried to paint the activists as violent terrorists. Had they limited their description and described the activists as having committed acts of criminal damage, they might have got away with it, but they didn’t. Pushed to serve Zionist interests they revealed, not only a moral bankruptcy, but an hysterical overreach, that has seriously undermined their credibility.

The irony is that in International Law, when governments and institutions are aware that a genocide, or even the likelihood of a genocide, is taking place, they are required by law, to do everything within their power to prevent such an act. In destroying weapons, and weapons parts, that would likely have been used in the genocide of innocent Gazan civilians, Palestine Action, were not only acting in accordance with law, but were then legitimately able to argue the legal defence, of trying to prevent a greater crime.

When the trial was held at Woolwich Crown Court, London, on 4th February the jury unprecedentedly, went against the advice of the judge and refused to convict the defendants. It was a moment of celebration for the defendants and for all their supporters outside and beyond the courthouse.

In a later trial where Huda Ammori challenged the government over the banning and proscription of Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation, the panel of three senior high court judges went against the government and proclaimed the ban to be unlawful. Although the government have said they will appeal the decision, support for Palestine Action remains solid. Almost 3,000 people were arrested, and, although proscription hasn’t been officially removed, if the government attempt to re-enforce the ban it’s likely that number will rise significantly.

Elbit Systems, along with other weapons manufacturers, are deeply invested in continuing the genocide in Gaza. Israel uses high tech weaponry and sophisticated AI to track and target journalists, aid workers and everyone else they consider to be even loosely connected to resistance. In reality this includes, babies, children and animals, because, it has been said openly on Israeli television channels, there are no innocents in Gaza.

This industry rakes in huge profits. For Israel, Gaza is a laboratory where, through the aid of surveillance cameras, they can exhibit the lethal effects of their weaponry on a human population. Israel claims it is defending itself. It claims, with the support of Christian Zionist that this is a religious war, because as ‘God’s Chosen People’, they have entitlement to all the land of Palestine. However this claim shrivels into insincerity when one realises how much money this industry makes.

The evidence clearly suggests that this war is not about defence, religion or prophecy, it’s about profit. The money that the military contractors make amounts to billions of dollars annually. This revenue goes beyond weapons sales and into high tech surveillance. Lavender and Gospel are sophisticated AI surveillance and tracking programmes that can be exported and sold around the world.

The West Bank serves as an experimental environment for tracking and control of mass populations. The demonstrated effectiveness, of such a mass control system, is directly applicable to homeland security in many countries, especially the US. One can only speculate that if all of historic Palestine were to be engulfed entirely within the Israeli State, with no opposition, then the weapons industry would likely migrate further. Lebanon and Syria. Iran, Yemen and Sudan are clearly within their sights. Lebanon has underwater gas reserves and with the direct assistance from the US, they are actively trying to disarm, Hezbollah, Lebanon’s only real defence from total occupation.

The military industrial complex, however goes far beyond the borders of Israel, US and UK. It emanates from a fascist predatory ideology that has no national boundaries. Its supporters allegiance is to money and power — not the protection of citizens within their proclaimed countries. These surveillance technologies, produced globally, threaten to rupture all of society. By breaking down moral boundaries where genocide becomes acceptable and sending out the message that, if you resist you will be tracked and punished the aim to silence and control people, is far reaching.

The claims of ‘a one world order’ where we will own nothing and be happy, no longer sounds like a conspiracy theory, but a conspiracy of fact. What we are witnessing is the breakdown of national states — the corruption of Western leadership and the breakdown of international law where the most serious crimes against humanity are normalised.

While ignorance once provided a shelter where we could claim — ‘we didn’t know’, the falling of the veil has stripped people of those illusions. History is repeating itself and this time the current holocaust in Gaza is being made visible on our screens in real time. It should be a warning to all of us. If we allow this to happen to one, it can happen to all.

Visibility and knowledge equate to responsibility. How we respond to these revelations comes down to the individual. However, for us in the UK, if the courage of the activists, the courage of the jury in the Filton trial, the courage of the judges in overturning the banning of Palestine Action, and the courage of the thousands, who risked their liberty by holding up signs stating their opposition of genocide and support of Palestine Action, is any indication of a grassroots resistance, then we should be encouraged.

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Heather Stroud, the author of The Ghost Locust and Abraham's Children, has been involved in human rights issues for a number of years. She lives in Ryedale where she is increasingly drawn into campaigns to keep the environment free from the industrialization and contamination of fracking. Read other articles by Heather.

 

Locust swarms destroy crops. Scientists found a way to stop that

Arizona State University

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Arizona State University PhD student Sydney Millerwise holds a migratory locust in ASU’s Global Locust Initiative lab. A new study by an ASU team and international collaborators identifies a strategy to manage locust populations and prevent damage to crops.

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Credit: Quinton Kendall/ASU Knowledge Enterprises

“They’re very destructive when there's a lot of them, but one-on-one, what's not to love?” says Arianne Cease. She’s talking about locusts.

As the director of Arizona State University’s Global Locust Initiative, Cease has a healthy admiration for these insects, even as she studies ways to manage locust swarms and prevent the destruction they cause.

Locust swarms, which may conjure images of biblical plagues and ancient famines, remain a serious problem worldwide. They can destroy crops across entire regions, ruin people’s livelihoods, and in some places, impact children’s education and future economic opportunities. Swarms can cover hundreds of square miles — equal to a major metropolitan area like New York City or Phoenix.

So, when Cease and her international team of scientists discovered a simple soil-based method to keep locusts from eating crops, they knew their work could change people’s lives. To the team’s knowledge, theirs is the first study to test this new method in real-world farming conditions and confirm that it works.

The researchers partnered with farmers in Senegal who experience outbreaks of the Senegalese grasshopper. This grasshopper does not form the extreme swarms like the desert locust, but its consistent outbreaks and smaller swarms can be more devastating for Senegalese farmers. These communities, which worked with Cease for previous studies, advocated for this larger study.

Each farmer grew two plots of millet — one treated with nitrogen fertilizer and one untreated.

Compared to the untreated plots, the treated plots showed three clear differences: fewer locusts, less crop damage and a doubled crop yield.

"This breakthrough represents an important step forward in the sustainable management of migratory pests, offering a community-based tool that expands the available treatment options," says Cease, also an associate professor with the ASU School of Sustainability and School of Life Sciences.

The study published today in the journal Springer Nature. Associate Professor Mamour Touré of Université Gaston Berger in Saint-Louis, Senegal, was the lead author of the study, while Cease served as the principal investigator of this USAID-supported project.

“The results are of major importance to the scientific community and also to Senegalese farmers,” says Touré. “The study gave them a better understanding of grasshoppers and locusts, as well as a practical way to control them at the local level.”

The Global Locust Initiative, part of the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory, focuses on locusts and the systems that surround them. Environmental factors, biology and behavior, economic impacts, policies, and landscape management all feed into the cycle of locust destruction — and offer opportunities to break it.

Over 15 years of studying locusts, Cease found that plants growing in nutrient-poor soil promote locust outbreaks. These plants are high in carbs and low in protein.

“This carbohydrate bias, or the ‘donut diet,’ is optimal for populations of locusts and swarming grasshoppers,” Cease says. Just like runners who load up on carbs before a marathon, locusts need more carbs to fuel their migration.

In nitrogen-rich soil, plants are higher in protein and lower in carbs. These plants are bad for locusts to eat — their bodies can’t handle the extra protein and don’t get enough energy.

Protein-packed plants prevent pests

All this work led to the question: can we prevent locust damage by changing the protein-to-carb ratio of plants? Small lab studies and field surveys suggested the answer might be yes, but no one had tested it in open, working farmland. To Cease, that was the next logical step.

Two villages in Senegal that collaborated with Cease on previous studies advocated conducting the new study in their communities. Farms there suffer heavy crop damage from swarms of the Senegalese grasshopper.

In the experiment, 100 farmers grew two millet plots each—one treated with nitrogen fertilizer and one left untreated for a controlled comparison.

The scientists were uncertain whether locusts might still enter treated plots via untreated areas, or whether the increase in plant protein would attract different pests.

The team assessed the number of locusts and damage to farmers’ plots three times throughout the growing season. They also recorded millet yields for each plot at harvest time.

The difference between the treated and untreated plots was significant. Treated plots had fewer locusts, less leaf damage to crops and a doubled millet yield at harvest. The team also found no evidence that nitrogen fertilizer made pest problems worse.

While the research team provided nitrogen fertilizer for the purpose of the study, it’s not practical for communities to use on a regular basis. To really work long-term, they need a way to add nitrogen to the soil that is affordable and good for the farmland.

“Ongoing work is focused exclusively on compost, and we seem to be getting the same results,” Cease says.

The project’s funding, provided through USAID, was cancelled in early 2025. However, the farmers on the ground in Senegal are so encouraged by the results that they are continuing the compost system on their own.

“Farmers unanimously stated that they no longer burn crop residues after land clearing, but instead practice composting to fertilize their fields, thereby helping to reduce grasshopper infestations. This technique was fully mastered thanks to the project,” Touré says.

The team is applying for additional funding to expand the project into other regions hard-hit by locusts.

Staying a step ahead of locusts

The U.S. has no locust species inside its borders. Why study them here at all? Cease says it won’t stay that way forever. She’s keeping her eye on the Central American locust, whose range reaches about 200 miles from our border.

“We can say with pretty high certainty that Texas will be very suitable for locusts in about 10 to 15 years,” Cease says. “Whether or not they will create a problem is yet to be determined, but it’s something that we should definitely be aware of.”

Even without locusts, we have enough reasons to study grasshoppers in the U.S. — 12 of them, in fact. They’re called the Dirty Dozen.

These 12 rangeland grasshoppers (plus one cricket) are top species of management concern in the western U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. When they swarm, they can outcompete livestock for grass, creating a huge problem for ranchers.

The department relies on chemical pesticides to control the grasshoppers, but through the Global Locust Initiative, it’s identifying alternative treatments that are safer for human health and the environment.

The more we learn about locusts in other parts of the world, the better we can address migratory pests at home and prepare for the day when locusts make their way to the U.S.

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DOI

10.1038/s41598-025-27884-z 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Soil amendments suppress migratory pests and enhance yields

Article Publication Date

15-Jan-2026

Arianne Cease (left) served as the principal investigator of this USAID-supported project, and Associate Professor Mamour Touré (right) of Université Gaston Berger in Saint-Louis, Senegal, was the lead author of the study.

Credit

Arianne Cease/Global Locust Initiative

“All locusts are grasshoppers, but not all grasshoppers are locusts,” says Cease, an associate professor with the ASU School of Sustainability in the College of Global Futures. A locust in a “solitarious” phase is shy. It acts like a regular grasshopper: avoiding others of its kind, appearing a camouflage green and staying in one area. A locust in a “gregarious” phase is just the opposite — it gathers with other locusts, wears bright colors to stand out and migrates huge distances in search of food. Here, gregarious locusts gather inside their enclosure in the Global Locust Initiative lab at Arizona State University.

Like a werewolf exposed to moonlight, a locust is a grasshopper with the potential to completely transform under the right conditions. Out of approximately 6,800 described species of short-horned grasshoppers, only 19 are considered locusts. Over 15 years of studying locusts, Associate Professor Arianne Cease with the ASU School of Sustainability, discovered that plants growing in nutrient-poor soil promote locust outbreaks. These plants are high in carbs and low in protein. A key goal of her research is to improve sustainable ecosystem management and rural livelihoods.

An ASU and international research team partnered with 100 farmers from two villages in Senegal for the study. Farmers grew two plots of millet — one treated with nitrogen fertilizer and one untreated. Here, a Senegalese farmer works in the field during the experiment.

Credit

Quinton Kendall/ASU Knowledge Enterprise

A participating Senegalese farmer shows his field with improved soil from composting. Composting is also the focus of ongoing research by the science team.

Credit

Arianne Cease

A Senegalese farmer and study participant inspects ripening millet in a field.

Credit

Marion Le Gall