It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Saturday, December 16, 2023
Navigating climate challenges: UVA engineers and environmental scientists aid Virginia’s eastern shore
UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND APPLIED SCIENCE
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AS PART OF UVA's Environmental Institute, PROFESSORS VENKAT LAKSHMI AND JONATHAN GOODALL LEAD UVA CLIMATE RESILIENCE PROJECTS LIKE THE CLIMATE EQUITY ATLAS
Since the Virginia Eastern Shore land mass is no more than 50 feet above sea level at any given point, it easily succumbs to saltwater intrusion, accelerated sea-level rise and storm flooding intensified by climate change. Saturated soil and swells of ground water destabilize buildings and can eventually cause the collapse of barns and homes. Farmland with elevated salinity cannot produce a healthy harvest — crops fail. Coastal erosion wears away soil and eliminates land altogether.
The predicament has been described as “too much” and “too little” — too much water where it’s not needed, for example intrusion and erosion, and too little where it is needed, such as not enough potable water.
Residents find it difficult to adapt to unpredictable environmental circumstances and their effects. Shore farmers, who have historically provided Virginia and the U.S. with a wealth of crops, now find that centuries of agriculture heritage are not enough to combat saltwater intrusion.
A group of UVA civil and environmental engineers and environmental scientists are teaming with local Shore residents on a project that aims to help these affected communities adapt to —literally and figuratively — an ever-changing landscape.
Empowering Communities with Technology
“We believe that the power of technology to transform communities and economies cannot be underestimated,” said Venkataraman Lakshmi, John L. Newcomb Professor of Engineering in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in the School of Engineering and Applied Science. Lakshmi is one of the lead researchers on the project team.
Researchers are developing a web-based decision-support tool that will help residents deal with the challenges caused by climate change. The tool, called the Climate Equity Atlas, combines historical environmental data and socioeconomic data to create a sophisticated predictive tool that residents can use to make informed choices.
For instance, if your home collapses, where should you build a new one where the same incident will not occur again? Where is it most affordable to build? If your crops are ruined, is there a place on the Shore where the soil will support crops long term? Are there zoning limitations?
By engaging the community through events like the 2023 Eastern Shore of Virginia Climate Equity Project Winter Workshop, they are discovering different circumstances like these, then designing the Atlas to incorporate the different scenarios and predict near-term and long-term effects of different choices.
“The Atlas will enable ‘what-if’ discussions and projections of alternative adaptation strategies,” said Majid Shafiee-Jood, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering.
Adapting to Climate-Induced Migration and Displacement
With climate-induced migration being a stark reality, the tool is also an attempt to keep community members from leaving the area. By providing the information they can make decisions not only about housing and farming, but how to connect with shifting population hubs to sell crops, start businesses and implement economic development plans.
The Atlas is a tool for governments and municipalities, too, so they can brainstorm adaptation strategies and remediation efforts for displaced people and infrastructure challenges — then use the tool to predict the effectiveness of different choices.
“We want to be able to tell who might be impacted — and who might be disproportionately impacted — by a decision,” Shafiee-Jood said.
Aiding Vulnerable Communities
Another main goal of the tool is to make sure no populations are left stranded without a path forward. The VASEM report also stated that lower income or racially segregated neighborhoods are often located in lower-value land tracts, including floodplains or flood-prone areas, and that residents and small businesses located in such areas are less likely to have the financial tools to protect their properties or relocate to less vulnerable areas.
“The research we’ve already done through VASEM on the impact of climate change can be plugged into the Atlas design,” Goodall said. “I’m thrilled that this data can help produce a tool so that this vibrant Shore community can continue to thrive.”
“We’re providing data in a way that can help the people in that region make decisions that put them in the best position to succeed,” said Duc Tran, a Ph.D. student gathering and analyzing the vast amount of critical environmental data needed to support this tool.
The Power of Data
“We’re being relentless about getting data,” Tran continued. “Because of our research, we found out that some National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and United States Geological Survey observatories have not collected data in certain years, so there were huge gaps in the environmental data. We’re utilizing remote sensing and lidar data to have more accurate predictions because we know the limitation of data availability is inevitable.”
Tran said he knows that with each component they build, they’re creating a foundation for resilience and for holding the community together. He hopes the things they learn and design for the Eastern Shore Atlas might be used to help other coastal communities around the world who are affected by climate change.
A screen capture of the Climate Equity Atlas web interface, which is not yet live but in progress.
Plans for the web-based, interactive tool are based on synthesizing many types of data to create a predictive model.
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Majid Shafiee-Jood
Understanding atmospheric flash droughts in the Caribbean
VIRGINIA TECH
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FRESH WATER RESOURCES ARE IMPACTED BY FLASH DROUGHTS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
The word “drought” typically conjures images of parched soil, dust-swept prairies, depleted reservoirs, and dry creek beds, all the result of weeks or seasons of persistently dry atmospheric conditions.
In the sun-soaked islands in the Caribbean, however, drought conditions can occur much more rapidly, with warning signs appearing too late for mediation strategies to limit agriculture losses or prevent stresses on infrastructure systems that provide clean water to communities.
Such occurrences – known as flash droughts – are the focus of a new paper authored by Assistant Professor Craig Ramseyer of the College of Natural Resources and Environment and published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology. The paper’s finding is that Caribbean Islands are uniquely susceptible to sudden droughts, and Ramseyer advocates for alternative methodologies to more accurately measure dry conditions in the region.
“The tropics have extremely intense solar radiation, so atmospheric processes tend to be expedited,” said Ramseyer, who teaches in the Department of Geography. “Despite often receiving daily rainfall, island ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to drought conditions.”
Ramseyer, whose research focuses on tropical rainfall and severe weather impacts in the Caribbean, utilized a new drought index that considers the atmospheric demand for moisture to identify drought risk conditions instead of more traditional soil moisture measurements.
“This new drought index is really developed to try to identify the first trigger of drought by focusing on evaporative demand,” said Ramseyer, who collaborated on the paper with Paul Miller ’12, M.S. ’14, an assistant professor at Louisiana State University. “Evaporative demand is a measure of how thirsty the atmosphere is and how much moisture it can collect from soil or plant matter.”
Ramseyer, who received funding for this research through a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Program Office, stressed that identifying drying conditions earlier is a key step to limiting the impacts of droughts.
“A lot of drought observation is based on soil moisture, but in tropical environments, a decline in soil moisture is a response to other things that have already happened so you’re further down in the chain of events,” he said. “We can mitigate a lot of losses in, say, agriculture, by being able to forecast sudden, anomalous increases in evaporative demand.”
The impacts of drought conditions extend beyond agriculture: Tropical ecosystems are also strongly impacted by dry atmospheric weather conditions, and access to fresh water is a necessity for both communities in the region and a tourism industry that is a central driver for economies in the Caribbean.
A new position for atmospheric research
To better understand how that interplay of meteorological patterns impacts drought conditions, Ramseyer utilized 40 years of data from a long-term ecological research project in the El Yunque National Forest. He found that flash droughts have routinely occurred in the Caribbean and that occurrences of drought are not limited to traditional dry seasons on the island.
“In terms of climate, Puerto Rico is situated at a crossroads, buffered on the west by the El Niño southern oscillation and by the cooler North Atlantic oscillation on the east,” said Ramseyer. “Because of that, Puerto Rico has a unique geography for researching atmospheric changes.”
The looming concerns over global warming have only accelerated the need for meteorologists to better understand drought occurrences in the Caribbean and enhance monitoring of moisture conditions in the region.
“A warming planet results in more moisture available in the atmosphere overall, which means that the kinds of short-term precipitation events common to the Caribbean will increase in intensity,” said Ramseyer. “Meanwhile, droughts are becoming higher in magnitude, so climate change is altering both extremes.”
Ramseyer, who helped secure Virginia Tech’s membership in the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research this year, said developing clearer criteria for flash drought conditions is an important first step toward addressing the infrastructure challenges that Caribbean communities are likely to face.
“The key current and future issue for the Caribbean is all about finding a way to capture rainfall successfully and draw it out slowly to mitigate evaporation losses,” said Ramseyer. “Puerto Rico and all of the Caribbean have water infrastructure challenges that must be addressed to accommodate these trends.”
Geography department chair Tom Crawford said Ramseyer’s paper reflects a utilization of big data in tackling climate and meteorological challenges.
“Dr. Ramseyer’s research applies advanced computing and geospatial science to make significant contributions to the problem of flash droughts and precipitation variability broadly,” said Crawford. “In addition to his research impact, his course on Climate Data Analysis and Programming is training the next generation of researchers on cutting edge computational techniques applied to the changing climate.”
Ramseyer advocates for additional research into understanding the relationship between flash drought events and economic losses and how future drought events can be better communicated to stakeholders and communities.
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