Conducted straight after the general election, the latest report from the Immigration Attitudes Tracker by British Future and Ipsos examines shifting public attitudes to immigration and asylum. It looks in detail at public perceptions and trust on immigration and at the differences in attitudes between Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem and Reform voters, analysing what that means for the politics of immigration in the new parliament.
19 September 2024
Half the public (50%) expects net migration to increase over the next 12 months and only 12% expect it to fall, according to new British Future/Ipsos research – even though immigration is already falling. With net migration trending downward over the next year, partly through circumstance and partly due to the policies of the previous government, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is likely to have considerable ‘breathing room’ as he exceeds public expectations on immigration numbers.
People also think asylum makes up more than five times as much of UK immigration as is actually the case. On average, the public think that people seeking asylum represent more than a third of total immigration (37%) when it actually accounts for only around 7%.
Four in ten Reform voters (39%) and three in ten Conservatives (31%) think more than half of UK migration is for asylum.
The new findings, from the Immigration Attitudes Tracker by British Future and Ipsos, also finds the public underestimates migration for work and study, which makes up most migration to the UK. People think a quarter of immigration (26%) is for work when the actual figure is around 40%; and estimate that only 19% is for study at UK universities (actually around 38%). The result is an unbalanced debate about the immigration we actually have – though concern about Channel crossings is also driven by a visible lack of control.
The tracker research, which has followed public attitudes to immigration since 2015, finds support for reducing immigration overall has risen by over 10 points in the last two years, to 55% (from 42% in February 2022). Around 4 in 10 people (38%) are opposed to reducing numbers (23% would keep at current levels, 15% increase).
People struggle to identify, however, what immigration they would cut. From a list of migrant roles – from doctors and care workers to construction workers, catering staff, fruit pickers and engineers – in almost every role tested, support for reductions was no higher than 30% (the one exception being bankers, where 37% want reductions).
Half the public (50%) want more migrants doctors to come to the UK (14% would like numbers reduced) and 52% want more nurses from overseas, with just 14% saying they would prefer fewer. Four in ten people (42%) want migration to work in care homes to increase, 28% want it to remain at current levels and 18% want it to be reduced; and while 35% want more people to come to the UK as seasonal workers to pick fruit and vegetables, only 19% want numbers reduced. For teachers, engineers and construction workers, more of the UK public want immigration to increase rather than decrease.
The new research finds that attitudes to immigration are increasingly polarised by politics, with supporters of rival parties holding starkly differing views. Reform voters want immigration to be the government’s top priority and three quarters (75%) want it reduced by a lot; while Labour voters are more likely to oppose than support reductions (44% reduce, 49% don’t reduce) and place it further down their list of priorities, after the NHS and cost of living.
Seven in ten Conservative voters (72%) favour reductions in immigration numbers, 58% wanting them reduced a lot. But there was no majority support among Conservatives for reductions in any of the 13 migrant roles tested in the research. Fewer than one in five would reduce visas for nurses, doctors or care home workers, who accounted for nearly half the work visas issued last year. More would favour an increase in the numbers coming to do those jobs.
Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, said:
“Most people will be surprised to see net migration falling over the next 12 months. PM Keir Starmer will exceed public expectations, giving him breathing room to reshape the government’s approach – though James Cleverly may argue that he deserves the credit.
“But falling numbers may do little to ease the anxieties of those most concerned about immigration. Most people massively overestimate how much of the UK’s immigration is for asylum, and these skewed perceptions give us an unbalanced debate about the immigration we actually have. So pressure on the government will be focused on Channel crossings, where a visible lack of control drives public concern – and the government will need to find a workable approach that combines compassion with control.”
Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said:
“The election of a new government hasn’t stopped public concern over immigration, with over half of Britons now wanting to see overall numbers reduced – with worries over asylum and channel crossings particularly driving public concern. Labour are not yet in the position of the previous Conservative Government who were criticised from all sides over their handling of the issue, but nor is it a particular strength. And the underlying challenge facing them remains the same, how to respond to the complexities of public opinion on this topic: a public concerned over overall numbers and asylum/channel crossings, but at the same time prioritising control over reducing numbers in many specific occupations – and with clear divisions by different groups too.”
The tracker also examines public trust in political parties when they talk about immigration. Trust remains low, with all parties more distrusted than trusted. The Conservative Party has taken a major hit on trust over the course of its time in power, now distrusted by 67% of the public and trusted by 24% (net -43). That leaves it a long way behind Labour, trusted by 36% and distrusted by 50% (net -14); but also behind Reform (trusted by 34% and distrusted by 52%, net -18) and the Liberal Democrats (trusted by 29% and distrusted by 46%, net -17).
British Future’s new report on the tracker findings, ‘Restoring trust in polarised times: Immigration in the new parliament’, also looks at public trust in the Conservative leadership candidates when they talk about immigration; attitudes on immigration among Reform voters and how they look very different to those of most of the public; and the challenges facing PM Keir Starmer on immigration.
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