Syria's New Government Cance Russian Port Lease at Tartu
On Monday, the new government of Syria canceled Russia's 49-year operating lease at the port of Tartus, bringing a multi-decade Russian naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean to a close. A military cargo ship that had been loitering just off the coast has now berthed at the Russian naval pier, where military vehicles are staged for a likely evacuation.
"According to the Director of Tartous Customs, the agreement signed with the Russian company to invest in Tartous Port has been canceled and all its revenues are now for the benefit of the Syrian state," reported local news agency Levant24.
In early December, U.S.-designated terror group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) ousted Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, driving Assad's Russian military backers to retreat to their longtime bases at Tartus and Hmeimem.
Under Assad, Russia had secured a 49-year renewal of its longtime lease on the port of Tartus, home of the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean. When HTS forced Assad to flee the country in December, that long-term port agreement was thrown into doubt, since the Russian Air Force had bombarded HTS and its allies throughout the civil war.
As an apparent precaution, the Russian Navy's Mediterranean Flotilla left Tartus en masse and took up station off the coast. The military cargo vessels Sparta and Sparta II joined the task force in early January, and held station in a racetrack pattern for weeks, prompting speculation about a possible evacuation.
Amidst rumors of failed negotiations over a continuing Russian presence in Syria, Russian ground forces accumulated a stockpile of valuable equipment on the quayside at Tartus. Ukraine's military intelligence agency, HUR, claimed earlier this month that Syria's new rulers were not allowing Russian ships to enter Tartus to remove the giant accumulation of gear - which may include several top-end S-400 air defense systems.
On Tuesday, after news broke of the cancelation of Russia's long-term port lease, Sparta II entered the inner harbor and berthed next to the equipment stockpile. Satellite imaging will soon confirm whether the vessel begins loading out the staged vehicles for shipment. The next destination, whether in Russia or in another part of the Mediterranean, remains to be seen.
"There is no comparable alternative base for the [Russian Navy] in the region," UK military intelligence said in a statement Tuesday. "Its ability to logistically support both its military and its private military contractors in Africa, as well as limiting the reputational damage incurred through the fall of the Assad regime, will almost certainly be priorities for the Russian government."
Another key change may be coming soon for Syria's ports. There are early signs that HTS is dismantling the drug-smuggling industry that sustained the al-Assad regime in the later years of the civil war. The manufacture and export of illicit stimulants generated billions in revenue for Assad's family and for the Syrian military. Under the leadership of Bashar's brother Maher al-Assad, Syria became the world's leading exporter of the amphetamine known as captagon; the small yellow pills became a familiar sight across the Mideast, and were favored by terrorist groups like Islamic State for the drug's tendency to enhance energy and courage in combat.
HTS security forces cut open equipment to reveal illicit cargo of captagon pills (HTS)
Latakia was the captagon industry's primary port for importing the precursors needed for manufacturing the drug, according to security researchers. Most exports were smuggled across the Jordanian border, but substantial quantities were also hidden in ocean freight shipments dispatched via Tartus and Latakia.
Syria's southern rebels loom large as the country's new rulers try to form a national army
ABBY SEWELL
Tue, January 21, 2025
NAWA, Syria (AP) — As insurgents raced across Syria in a surprise offensive launched in the country's northwest late last year, officials from several countries backing either the rebels or Syria’s government met in Qatar on what to do.
According to people briefed on the Dec. 7 meeting, officials from Turkey, Russia, Iran and a handful of Arab countries agreed that the insurgents would stop their advance in Homs, the last major city north of Damascus, and that internationally mediated talks would take place with Syrian leader Bashar Assad on a political transition.
But insurgent factions from Syria’s south had other plans. They pushed toward the capital, arriving in Damascus’ largest square before dawn. Insurgents from the north, led by the Islamist group Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, arrived hours later. Assad, meanwhile, had fled.
HTS, the most organized of the groups, has since established itself as Syria’s de facto rulers after coordinating with the southern fighters during the lighting-fast offensive.
Wariness among the southern factions since then, however, has highlighted questions over how the interim administration can bring together a patchwork of former rebel groups, each with their own leaders and ideology.
HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has called for a unified national army and security forces. The interim defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, has begun meeting with armed groups. But some prominent leaders like southern rebel commander Ahmad al-Awda have refused to attend.
Officials with the interim government did not respond to questions.
Cradle of the revolution
The southern province of Daraa is widely seen as the cradle of the Syrian uprising in 2011. When anti-government protests were met with repression by Assad’s security forces, “we were forced to carry weapons,” said Mahmoud al-Bardan, a rebel leader there.
The rebel groups that formed in the south had different dynamics from those in the north, less Islamist and more localized, said Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank. They also had different backers.
“In the north, Turkey and Qatar favored Islamist factions very heavily,” he said. “In the south, Jordanian and American involvement nudged the insurgency in a different direction.”
In 2018, factions in Daraa reached a Russian-mediated “reconciliation agreement” with Assad’s government. Some former fighters left for Idlib, the destination for many from areas recaptured by government forces, while others remained.
The deal left many southern factions alive and armed, Lund said.
“We only turned over the heavy weapons … the light weapons remained with us,” al-Bardan said.
When the HTS-led rebel groups based in the north launched their surprise offensive last year in Aleppo, those weapons were put to use again. Factions in the southern provinces of Daraa, Sweida and Quneitra reactivated, forming a joint operations room to coordinate with northern ones.
Defying international wishes
On Dec. 7, “we had heard from a number of parties that there might be an agreement that … no one would enter Damascus so there could be an agreement on the exit of Bashar Assad or a transitional phase,” said Nassim Abu Ara, an official with one of the largest rebel factions in the south, the 8th Brigade of al-Awda.
However, “we entered Damascus and turned the tables on these agreements,” he said.
Al-Bardan confirmed that account, asserting that the agreement “was binding on the northern factions” but not the southern ones.
“Even if they had ordered us to stop, we would not have,” he said, reflecting the eagerness among many fighters to remove Assad as soon as possible.
Ammar Kahf, executive director of the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies, who was in Doha on Dec. 7 and was briefed on the meetings, said there was an agreement among countries’ officials that the rebels would stop their offensive in Homs and go to Geneva for negotiations on “transitional arrangements.”
But Kahf said it was not clear that any Syrian faction, including HTS, agreed to the plan. Representatives of countries at the meeting did not respond to questions.
A statement released by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia, Iran, Qatari, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq after the Dec. 7 meeting said they “stressed the need to stop military operations in preparation for launching a comprehensive political process” but did not give specifics.
The initial hours after armed groups' arrival in Damascus were chaotic. Observers said the HTS-led forces tried to re-impose order when they arrived. An Associated Press journalist saw an argument break out when HTS fighters tried to stop members of another faction from taking abandoned army munitions.
Abu Ara acknowledged that “there was some chaos” but added, “we have to understand that these people were pent-up and suddenly they achieved the joy of victory in this manner.”
Waiting for a state
During a visit by AP journalists to the western countryside of Daraa province this month, there was no visible presence of HTS forces.
At one former Syrian army site, a fighter with the Free Syrian Army, the main faction in the area, stood guard in jeans and a camouflage shirt. Other local fighters showed off a site where they were storing tanks abandoned by the former army.
“Currently these are the property of the new state and army,” whenever it is formed, said one fighter, Issa Sabaq.
The process of forming those has been bumpy.
On New Year’s Eve, factions in the Druze-majority city of Sweida in southern Syria blocked the entry of a convoy of HTS security forces who had arrived without giving prior notice.
Ahmed Aba Zeid, a Syrian researcher who has studied the southern insurgent groups, said some of the factions have taken a wait-and-see approach before they agree to dissolve and hand over their weapons to the state.
Local armed factions are still the de facto security forces in many areas.
Earlier this month, the new police chief in Daraa city appointed by the HTS-led government, Badr Abdel Hamid, joined local officials in the town of Nawa to discuss plans for a police force there.
Hamid said there had been “constructive and positive cooperation” with factions in the region, adding the process of extending the “state’s influence” takes time.
Abu Ara said factions are waiting to understand their role. “Will it be a strong army, or a border guard army, or is it for counterterrorism?” he asked.
Still, he was optimistic that an understanding will be reached.
“A lot of people are afraid that there will be a confrontation, that there won’t be integration or won’t be an agreement,” he said. “But we want to avoid this at all costs, because our country is very tired of war.”
According to people briefed on the Dec. 7 meeting, officials from Turkey, Russia, Iran and a handful of Arab countries agreed that the insurgents would stop their advance in Homs, the last major city north of Damascus, and that internationally mediated talks would take place with Syrian leader Bashar Assad on a political transition.
But insurgent factions from Syria’s south had other plans. They pushed toward the capital, arriving in Damascus’ largest square before dawn. Insurgents from the north, led by the Islamist group Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, arrived hours later. Assad, meanwhile, had fled.
HTS, the most organized of the groups, has since established itself as Syria’s de facto rulers after coordinating with the southern fighters during the lighting-fast offensive.
Wariness among the southern factions since then, however, has highlighted questions over how the interim administration can bring together a patchwork of former rebel groups, each with their own leaders and ideology.
HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has called for a unified national army and security forces. The interim defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, has begun meeting with armed groups. But some prominent leaders like southern rebel commander Ahmad al-Awda have refused to attend.
Officials with the interim government did not respond to questions.
Cradle of the revolution
The southern province of Daraa is widely seen as the cradle of the Syrian uprising in 2011. When anti-government protests were met with repression by Assad’s security forces, “we were forced to carry weapons,” said Mahmoud al-Bardan, a rebel leader there.
The rebel groups that formed in the south had different dynamics from those in the north, less Islamist and more localized, said Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank. They also had different backers.
“In the north, Turkey and Qatar favored Islamist factions very heavily,” he said. “In the south, Jordanian and American involvement nudged the insurgency in a different direction.”
In 2018, factions in Daraa reached a Russian-mediated “reconciliation agreement” with Assad’s government. Some former fighters left for Idlib, the destination for many from areas recaptured by government forces, while others remained.
The deal left many southern factions alive and armed, Lund said.
“We only turned over the heavy weapons … the light weapons remained with us,” al-Bardan said.
When the HTS-led rebel groups based in the north launched their surprise offensive last year in Aleppo, those weapons were put to use again. Factions in the southern provinces of Daraa, Sweida and Quneitra reactivated, forming a joint operations room to coordinate with northern ones.
Defying international wishes
On Dec. 7, “we had heard from a number of parties that there might be an agreement that … no one would enter Damascus so there could be an agreement on the exit of Bashar Assad or a transitional phase,” said Nassim Abu Ara, an official with one of the largest rebel factions in the south, the 8th Brigade of al-Awda.
However, “we entered Damascus and turned the tables on these agreements,” he said.
Al-Bardan confirmed that account, asserting that the agreement “was binding on the northern factions” but not the southern ones.
“Even if they had ordered us to stop, we would not have,” he said, reflecting the eagerness among many fighters to remove Assad as soon as possible.
Ammar Kahf, executive director of the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies, who was in Doha on Dec. 7 and was briefed on the meetings, said there was an agreement among countries’ officials that the rebels would stop their offensive in Homs and go to Geneva for negotiations on “transitional arrangements.”
But Kahf said it was not clear that any Syrian faction, including HTS, agreed to the plan. Representatives of countries at the meeting did not respond to questions.
A statement released by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia, Iran, Qatari, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq after the Dec. 7 meeting said they “stressed the need to stop military operations in preparation for launching a comprehensive political process” but did not give specifics.
The initial hours after armed groups' arrival in Damascus were chaotic. Observers said the HTS-led forces tried to re-impose order when they arrived. An Associated Press journalist saw an argument break out when HTS fighters tried to stop members of another faction from taking abandoned army munitions.
Abu Ara acknowledged that “there was some chaos” but added, “we have to understand that these people were pent-up and suddenly they achieved the joy of victory in this manner.”
Waiting for a state
During a visit by AP journalists to the western countryside of Daraa province this month, there was no visible presence of HTS forces.
At one former Syrian army site, a fighter with the Free Syrian Army, the main faction in the area, stood guard in jeans and a camouflage shirt. Other local fighters showed off a site where they were storing tanks abandoned by the former army.
“Currently these are the property of the new state and army,” whenever it is formed, said one fighter, Issa Sabaq.
The process of forming those has been bumpy.
On New Year’s Eve, factions in the Druze-majority city of Sweida in southern Syria blocked the entry of a convoy of HTS security forces who had arrived without giving prior notice.
Ahmed Aba Zeid, a Syrian researcher who has studied the southern insurgent groups, said some of the factions have taken a wait-and-see approach before they agree to dissolve and hand over their weapons to the state.
Local armed factions are still the de facto security forces in many areas.
Earlier this month, the new police chief in Daraa city appointed by the HTS-led government, Badr Abdel Hamid, joined local officials in the town of Nawa to discuss plans for a police force there.
Hamid said there had been “constructive and positive cooperation” with factions in the region, adding the process of extending the “state’s influence” takes time.
Abu Ara said factions are waiting to understand their role. “Will it be a strong army, or a border guard army, or is it for counterterrorism?” he asked.
Still, he was optimistic that an understanding will be reached.
“A lot of people are afraid that there will be a confrontation, that there won’t be integration or won’t be an agreement,” he said. “But we want to avoid this at all costs, because our country is very tired of war.”
Jonathan Spicer, Tuvan Gumrukcu and Maya Gebeily
Sun, January 19, 2025
Member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street in Hasakah
ISTANBUL/DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Negotiators are zeroing in on a potential deal to resolve one of the most explosive questions looming over Syria's future: the fate of Kurdish forces that the U.S. considers key allies against Islamic State but neighbouring Turkey regards as a national security threat.
Diplomatic and military negotiators from the United States, Turkey, Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are showing more flexibility and patience than their public statements suggest, a dozen sources told Reuters, including five directly involved in the intensive web of discussions in recent weeks.
This could set the stage for an accord in the coming months that would see some Kurdish fighters leave Syria's restive northeast and others brought under the authority of the new defense ministry, six of the sources said.
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However, many thorny issues need to be resolved, they said. These include how to integrate the SDF alliance's well-armed and trained fighters into Syria's security framework and administer territory under their control, which includes key oil and wheat fields.
In an interview with Saudi Arabia's Asharq News channel on Tuesday, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said the alliance's "basic demand" is for decentralised administration - a potential challenge to Syria's new leadership, which wants to bring all of the country back under the government's authority after ousting Bashar al-Assad last month.
Abdi indicated that the SDF has no intention of dissolving, saying it was open to linking with the defense ministry and operating according to its rules, but as "a military bloc".
Syria's new defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, rejected that approach in an interview with Reuters on Sunday, saying the suggestion that the SDF remain one bloc "is not right."
The former rebels now in power in Damascus have said they want all armed groups to integrate into Syria's official forces, under a unified command. The SDF, when asked for comment, referred Reuters to its commander's interview.
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How much autonomy Kurdish factions retain likely hinges on whether incoming U.S. president Donald Trump continues Washington's longtime support of its Kurdish allies, according to diplomats and officials on all sides.
Trump has not spoken publicly about his intentions, including his plans for some 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria. A Trump representative did not comment.
Any deal also depends on whether Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan holds off on a threatened military offensive against the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish militia that spearheads the SDF alliance.
Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by both Turkey and the U.S.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that Syria's new authorities "should be given an opportunity to ... end the occupation and terror the YPG created", but he did not say how long Ankara would wait for it to disarm before launching an incursion.
A Turkish Foreign Ministry source said disarming armed groups and the departure of "foreign terrorist fighters" were essential for Syria's stability and territorial integrity, so the sooner this happens the better.
"We are voicing this expectation of ours in the strongest terms during our contacts with both the United States and the new administration in Damascus," the source said.
INTENSIVE TALKS
U.S. and Turkish officials have been holding "very intensive" discussions since rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate, launched a lightning offensive from their northwestern stronghold that deposed Assad on Dec. 8, a senior U.S. diplomat told Reuters.
The two countries share a "common view of where things should end up", including a belief that all foreign fighters should exit Syrian territory, the diplomat said, noting Turkish negotiators "have a very high sense of urgency" to settle things.
However, the diplomat, who like some other sources requested anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said the talks were "hugely complex" and would take time.
Parallel talks are taking place between the U.S. and both the SDF and HTS, Turkey and HTS, and the SDF and HTS, officials from all sides say.
Part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, Kurds had been among the few winners of the Syrian conflict, gaining control over Arab-majority areas as the U.S. partnered with them in the campaign against Islamic State. They now hold nearly a quarter of the country.
But Assad's fall has left Syrian Kurdish factions on the back foot, with Turkey-backed armed groups gaining ground in the northeast and the country's new rulers in Damascus friendly with Ankara.
Turkey, which provided direct support to some rebel groups against Assad, has emerged as one of the most influential power brokers in Syria since his fall. Like the U.S., it has designated HTS a terrorist group because of its al Qaeda past, but Ankara is believed to have significant sway over the group.
Officials on all sides worry that failure to reach a ceasefire and longer-term political accord in the northeast could destabilise Syria as it seeks to recover from a 13-year civil war that killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions and drew in countries including Russia, Iran and Israel.
Dozens of people in northern Syria have been reported killed since December in clashes between the Kurdish-led SDF and Turkey's allies, and in cross-border Turkish airstrikes.
Failure to resolve the fate of Kurdish factions in Syria could also undermine nascent efforts to end the PKK's insurgency in Turkey.
The United Nations has warned of "dramatic consequences" for Syria and the region if a political solution is not found in the northeast.
POTENTIAL TRADE-OFFS
U.S. support for the SDF has been a source of tension with its NATO ally, Turkey.
Washington views the SDF as a key partner in countering Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will try to use this period to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The SDF is still guarding tens of thousands of detainees linked to the group.
Erdogan said on Wednesday that Turkey has the power to "crush" all terrorists in Syria, including Islamic State and Kurdish militants.
Turkey wants the management of camps and prisons where Islamic State detainees are being held transferred to Syria's new rulers and has offered to help them. It has also demanded that the SDF expel all foreign fighters and senior PKK members from its territory and disarm the remaining members in a way it can verify.
Abdi, the SDF commander, has shown flexibility regarding some Turkish demands, telling Reuters last month that its foreign fighters, including PKK members, would leave Syria if Turkey agrees to a ceasefire.
The PKK said in a statement to Reuters on Thursday that it would agree to leave if the SDF maintains control of the northeast or a significant role in joint leadership.
Such assurances are unlikely to satisfy Ankara at a time when the SDF is "trying to stay alive and autonomous" in Syria, Omer Onhon, Turkey's last ambassador to Damascus, told Reuters.
In Ankara on Wednesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani said the extensive U.S.-backed SDF presence was no longer justified, and the new administration would not allow Syrian land to be a source of threats to Turkey. Standing next to him, his Turkish counterpart, Fidan, said it was time to put anti-terror pledges into practice.
Abdi told Asharq News that he has met with Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the two sides agreed to set up a joint military committee to decide how the SDF would integrate with the defense ministry. He described the meeting with Sharaa, who heads HTS, as positive.
Abu Qasra, the defense minister, accused SDF leaders on Sunday of "procrastinating" on the issue, saying "consolidation of all areas under the new administration ... is a right of the Syrian state."
The new leadership believes that allowing SDF fighters to continue operating as a bloc would "risk destabilisation, including a coup", a ministry official told Reuters.
Abdi argued that a decentralised administration would not threaten Syria's unity, saying the SDF is not demanding the kind of federalism introduced in Iraq, where Kurds have their own regional government.
Some Syrian officials and diplomats say the SDF will likely need to relinquish control of significant territory and oil revenues, gained during the war, as part of any political settlement.
In return, Kurdish factions could be granted protections for their language and culture within a decentralised political structure, said Bassam al-Kuwatli, president of the small Syrian Liberal Party, which supports minority rights but is not involved in the talks.
A senior Syrian Kurdish source acknowledged that some such trade-offs would likely be needed but did not elaborate.
Abdi told Asharq News that the SDF was open to handing over responsibility for oil resources to the new administration, provided the wealth was distributed fairly to all provinces.
Washington has called for a "managed transition" of the SDF's role.
The U.S. diplomat said Assad's ouster opens the door for Washington to eventually consider withdrawing its troops from Syria, though much depends on whether trusted forces like its Kurdish allies remain engaged in efforts to counter any Islamic State resurgence.
Trump's return to the White House on Monday has raised hopes in Turkey of a favourable deal, given the rapport he established with Erdogan during his first term.
Trump has spoken approvingly about Erdogan's role in Syria, calling him a "very smart guy", and said Turkey would "hold the key" to what happens there.
"The Americans won't abandon (the SDF)," said Onhon, Turkey's former ambassador. "But the arrival of someone as unpredictable as Trump must worry them in a way too."
(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer in Istanbul, Tuvan Gumrukcu in Ankara and Maya Gebeily in Damascus; Addional reporting by Timour Azhari in Damascus, Suleiman Al-Khalidi in Amman, Tom Perry in Beirut, Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad and Orhan Qereman in Qamishli, Syria; Editing by Alexandra Zavis)
Syria Fractured Fighters
Damaged tanks that belonged to the Assad regime, in Nawa, near Daraa, Syria, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Mosa'ab Elshamy)
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