Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Trump’s EV rollback not expected to suppress appetite for critical minerals

HE'S DOING IT AGAIN; CUTTING NOSE TO SPITE FACE

Reuters | January 21, 2025 |


Donald Trump, 47th President of the United States
. (Image: Donald Trump X Account)

US President Donald Trump’s rollback of electric vehicle targets may temporarily slow demand for lithium and other critical minerals, but is unlikely to hamper the mining industry amid surging global EV demand, analysts and industry leaders said.


Trump on Tuesday revoked predecessor Joe Biden’s 2021 executive order that sought to ensure half of all new vehicles sold in the US by 2030 are electric. Automakers had been positioning for a jump in EV demand due largely to that Biden move.

Trump’s order caused shares of Japanese automakers, South Korean battery makers and Australian, US and Chinese lithium miners to slip. But even if EV demand cools in the world’s second-biggest auto market, analysts and industry experts expect traction elsewhere to more than compensate.

Trump has planned other regulatory changes to cut off support for EVs and charging stations. He also aims to strengthen measures blocking imports of automobiles and battery materials from China.

“Every time people take away subsidies or benefits … it’s a dent to the demand scenario,” said analyst Glyn Lawcock at Barrenjoey, an Australian investment bank. “(But) ultimately demand will still grow even if the US is a bit slower under Trump.”

Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources said the global transition to EVs was underway, with or without the United States.

“Longer term, I just don’t think it will be an issue on demand,” Antonino Ottaviano, Liontown’s CEO, said on a Tuesday analyst call.

Much of the EV industry’s growth happens in China, accounting for 11 million sales or 65% of the market, compared with North America, which accounts for 20% of the market, Liontown executives said on the call.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world already accounts for 1.3 million EV sales and is growing at 27% year on year, a trajectory that will see it become more meaningful than the entire North American market in less than two years, the Liontown executives added.

That growth potential is something Chinese EV manufacturers are chasing given they are locked out of the US market due to 100% EV tariffs imposed by Biden.

Grid-scale batteries that store days’ worth of electricity are rising in popularity across the world, for example. Critical metals are also used to build many consumer electronics as well as computer servers needed to power the artificial intelligence industry.

Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium company, declined to comment on Trump’s order.

Arcadium, a lithium producer about to be bought by Rio Tinto and the International Lithium Association trade group, was not immediately available for comment.

Rio Tinto also declined to comment on Trump’s order, but its CEO Jakob Stausholm told the World Economic Forum on Tuesday that he is bullish on the white metal.

“Lithium demand will probably go up another five times over the next 15 years, so a lot more lithium projects will have to be built,” Stausholm told the forum in Davos, Switzerland, adding that he has owned an EV for more than nine years.

“It’s just a better car” than an internal combustion engine, Stausholm added.

David Klanecky, CEO of privately held battery recycler Cirba Solutions, expects US demand for critical minerals to jump by 2030 due to the demand not just for EVs, but for myriad electronics.

Beyond any target rollbacks, miners said they believe measures to wean Western manufacturers off Chinese supplies will underpin support for their metals.

“We expect measures taken to build supply chain independence from China … to have a much greater impact than the rollback of a formal target for EV sales,” said Darryl Cuzzubbo, CEO of Australian rare earths developer Arafura.

“There is a tipping point looming for electric vehicles at which targets and incentives won’t be required to encourage take-up.”

(By Melanie Burton, Ernest Scheyder, Alexander Smith, Violet Li and Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Veronica Brown and Marguerita Choy)


As Trump takes aim at EVs, how far will rollback go?


By AFP
January 22, 2025


Shares of Rivian and other electric vehicle companies fell after US President Donald Trump issued an executive order targeting the EV industry - Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File MARIO TAMA


John BIERS

As part of his flurry of first-day actions, US President Donald Trump took aim at electric vehicles, a cornerstone of the Biden administration’s climate change agenda.

Trump’s executive order on “Unleashing American Energy” on Monday included steps to ensure a “level” playing field for gasoline-powered motors and halt federal funding to build new EV charging stations.

The executive order also appeared to presage other reversals, referencing the possible elimination of a federal tax credit for EV purchases and the renouncement of a US waiver that allows California to set stricter requirements on cars.

During his inaugural address, Trump said the moves would “end” the “Green New Deal,” ridiculing Biden-backed incentives for EV sales.

While Trump harshly criticized EVs during the presidential campaign, policy experts have been skeptical Trump will junk all the Biden-era EV programs, in part because significant federal funding has gone toward projects in Republican congressional districts, where thousands of jobs are expected to be created.

Shares of EV makers like Rivian and EV charging companies such as EVgo fell sharply Tuesday. Tesla, which is led by close Trump ally Elon Musk, also fell.

Kathy Harris, director for clean vehicles of the Natural Resources Defense Council, called Trump’s policy a sop for “fat-cat oil executives,” noting that EVs are better for the environment and can save consumers money on gasoline.

Many of Trump’s executive orders are expected to face legal challenges, a possible outcome for the EV measures.

“This is not the end of this story,” Harris said. “If the administration tries to cut corners or ignore the law, they will end up in court.”

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which has previously endorsed the need for stable auto rules, reiterated its criticism of California’s car regulations in a statement that did not address other elements in Trump’s executive order.

“The country should have a single, national standard to reduce carbon in transportation,” said the group’s president, John Bozzella. “We can’t have regulations that push the industry too far ahead of the customer.”

– 90-day review –

The new policy comes as automakers pause some EV investments due to slowing growth, even as sales of emission-free vehicles climb to new levels in the United States.

In 2024, EV sales in the country reached 1.3 million, up 7.3 percent from the prior year, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book, which pointed to a meaningful rise in EVs at different price levels.

But GM, Ford and other automakers have scaled back some EV investments in recent months, pointing to slowing demand growth. A Ford executive warned in November that a glut of EVs across showrooms will lead to “incredible pressure” on prices in 2025.

The broadside against EVs followed Trump’s targeting of the vehicles during the presidential campaign, when he claimed Democrat Kamala Harris wanted to force EVs on consumers.

Harris said that she favored consumer choice.

The Biden administration’s fuel economy rules required automakers to market fleets with sharply lower carbon dioxidAs Trump takes aim at EVs, how far will rollback go?
ByAFPPublishedJanuary 22, 2025
Shares of Rivian and other electric vehicle companies fell after US President Donald Trump issued an executive order targeting the EV industry
Shares of Rivian and other electric vehicle companies fell after US President Donald Trump issued an executive order targeting the EV industry - Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File MARIO TAMA
John BIERS
As part of his flurry of first-day actions, US President Donald Trump took aim at electric vehicles, a cornerstone of the Biden administration’s climate change agenda.

Trump’s executive order on “Unleashing American Energy” on Monday included steps to ensure a “level” playing field for gasoline-powered motors and halt federal funding to build new EV charging stations.

The executive order also appeared to presage other reversals, referencing the possible elimination of a federal tax credit for EV purchases and the renouncement of a US waiver that allows California to set stricter requirements on cars.

During his inaugural address, Trump said the moves would “end” the “Green New Deal,” ridiculing Biden-backed incentives for EV sales.

While Trump harshly criticized EVs during the presidential campaign, policy experts have been skeptical Trump will junk all the Biden-era EV programs, in part because significant federal funding has gone toward projects in Republican congressional districts, where thousands of jobs are expected to be created.

Shares of EV makers like Rivian and EV charging companies such as EVgo fell sharply Tuesday. Tesla, which is led by close Trump ally Elon Musk, also fell.

Kathy Harris, director for clean vehicles of the Natural Resources Defense Council, called Trump’s policy a sop for “fat-cat oil executives,” noting that EVs are better for the environment and can save consumers money on gasoline.

Many of Trump’s executive orders are expected to face legal challenges, a possible outcome for the EV measures.

“This is not the end of this story,” Harris said. “If the administration tries to cut corners or ignore the law, they will end up in court.”

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which has previously endorsed the need for stable auto rules, reiterated its criticism of California’s car regulations in a statement that did not address other elements in Trump’s executive order.

“The country should have a single, national standard to reduce carbon in transportation,” said the group’s president, John Bozzella. “We can’t have regulations that push the industry too far ahead of the customer.”

– 90-day review –

The new policy comes as automakers pause some EV investments due to slowing growth, even as sales of emission-free vehicles climb to new levels in the United States.

In 2024, EV sales in the country reached 1.3 million, up 7.3 percent from the prior year, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book, which pointed to a meaningful rise in EVs at different price levels.

But GM, Ford and other automakers have scaled back some EV investments in recent months, pointing to slowing demand growth. A Ford executive warned in November that a glut of EVs across showrooms will lead to “incredible pressure” on prices in 2025.

The broadside against EVs followed Trump’s targeting of the vehicles during the presidential campaign, when he claimed Democrat Kamala Harris wanted to force EVs on consumers.

Harris said that she favored consumer choice.

The Biden administration’s fuel economy rules required automakers to market fleets with sharply lower carbon dioxide emissions in a bid to address climate change, while laws such as the $400 billion Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included a slew of lending and tax credit programs to boost EVs.

Programs under the IRA and the 2021 infrastructure law are in various stages of implementation. Monday’s executive order directs officials implementing the IRA to undertake a 90-day review to ensure that spending does not unfairly favor EVs “by rendering other types of vehicles unaffordable.”

Policy experts see no meaningful chance that the new administration will try to claw back US funds that have already been spent. But whether Trump will seek to block other projects that are still moving through the pipeline is less clear.

Nearly half of the $5 billion set aside for new EV chargers has been allocated to states under the infrastructure law, according to a memo from NRDC.

The 2021 infrastructure law’s “embedded safeguards… should ensure continuity for infrastructure investments,” the NRDC said. “Of course, the incoming administration could try drastic measures, but those will face real-world and legal hurdles.”

In November, the Energy Department advanced projects to provide Rivian a $6.6 billion federal loan to build an EV manufacturing facility in Stanton Springs North, Georgia, and a $7.5 billion loan to StarPlus Energy to finance lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing plants in Kokomo, Indiana, under a Stellantis-Samsung joint venture.

Construction on the Georgia plant is expected to begin in 2026, according to Rivian.

Neither Rivian nor Stellantis responded to AFP queries on the implications of the new Trump policy for their projects.

Read more: https://www.digitaljournal.com/business/as-trump-takes-aim-at-evs-how-far-will-rollback-go/article#ixzz8y4IaKMa3e emissions in a bid to address climate change, while laws such as the $400 billion Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included a slew of lending and tax credit programs to boost EVs.

Programs under the IRA and the 2021 infrastructure law are in various stages of implementation. Monday’s executive order directs officials implementing the IRA to undertake a 90-day review to ensure that spending does not unfairly favor EVs “by rendering other types of vehicles unaffordable.”

Policy experts see no meaningful chance that the new administration will try to claw back US funds that have already been spent. But whether Trump will seek to block other projects that are still moving through the pipeline is less clear.

Nearly half of the $5 billion set aside for new EV chargers has been allocated to states under the infrastructure law, according to a memo from NRDC.

The 2021 infrastructure law’s “embedded safeguards… should ensure continuity for infrastructure investments,” the NRDC said. “Of course, the incoming administration could try drastic measures, but those will face real-world and legal hurdles.”

In November, the Energy Department advanced projects to provide Rivian a $6.6 billion federal loan to build an EV manufacturing facility in Stanton Springs North, Georgia, and a $7.5 billion loan to StarPlus Energy to finance lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing plants in Kokomo, Indiana, under a Stellantis-Samsung joint venture.

Construction on the Georgia plant is expected to begin in 2026, according to Rivian.

Neither Rivian nor Stellantis responded to AFP queries on the implications of the new Trump policy for their projects.

No comments: