ITS THE TRUMP Federal Election 2025
Mark Carney’s Liberals leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives by 5 points in latest Nanos tracking
By Phil Hahn
Published: March 30, 2025
CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The federal Liberals are emerging as frontrunners in a tightly-contested election with a five-point lead over the Conservatives, who have maintained steady support as both parties are locked in a two-horse race on Day 8 of the federal election campaign.
The first three-day sample of this election campaign by Nanos Research, CTV News’ and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster, has Mark Carney’s Liberals at 42 per cent — leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who are at 37 per cent, by five points.
The New Democratic Party is at 11 per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (five per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (two per cent).
Support for the Liberals has “surged,” according to Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos.
“Strategic voting appears to be the driving force behind the Liberals’ five-point advantage, as voters rally to counterbalance the Conservative challenge. This dynamic is reshaping the political terrain, squeezing smaller parties out of the spotlight,” said Nanos in a release.Full coverage of federal election 2025
Regional data shows the Liberals with the highest support in Quebec, at 47 per cent, with the lowest support for the party coming from the Prairies, at 35 per cent. For the Conservatives, it’s the exact opposite, with their highest support in the Prairies (43 per cent) and lowest support in Quebec (21 per cent).
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to who Canadians prefer to become prime minister, the Liberals also lead the way with 48 per cent choosing Carney, compared to 32 per cent who chose Poilievre. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is far behind, at four per cent.
(Nanos Research)
“In a world disrupted by Trump-era politics, Canadians are laser-focused on who will steer the nation through these turbulent times,” said Nanos. “The stakes are high, and the campaign is just beginning to unfold.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, March 27 to 29, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Phil Hahn
Special Projects Producer, CTVNews.ca
Poilievre pitches Tories as best choice to stand up to Trump as Singh heads to B.C.
By The Canadian Press
Published: March 30, 2025
“In a world disrupted by Trump-era politics, Canadians are laser-focused on who will steer the nation through these turbulent times,” said Nanos. “The stakes are high, and the campaign is just beginning to unfold.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, March 27 to 29, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Phil Hahn
Special Projects Producer, CTVNews.ca
IT'S A BUNCH OF DUDES
By The Canadian Press
Published: March 30, 2025
This composite image shows, left to right, Liberal Leader Mark Carney on March 21, 2025; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on March 4, 2025; NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on Jan. 22, 2025; Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet on March 5, 2025; Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault on March 5, 2025, in Ottawa.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick, Adrian Wyld, Justin Tang
OTTAWA — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre brushed off suggestions of campaign turmoil Sunday as he pitched his party as the best choice to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump.
As the second week of the federal election campaign begins, another round of U.S. tariffs expected on Wednesday threatens to overtake the political conversation in Canada.
And Poilievre is still facing questions about growing concerns in Conservative circles over his messaging and polls that now show him trailing Mark Carney’s Liberals.
Poilievre visited a plastics factory in the Toronto suburb of North York Sunday, where he promised to allow investors to defer capital gains tax if they reinvest those earnings in Canada.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh planned to campaign in British Columbia on Sunday, while Carney had no public events scheduled.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet had planned to spend much of the day in Victoriaville, Que., while Green co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault were scheduled to attend the Juno music awards in Vancouver.
Poilievre dismissed the suggestion that he should focus his campaign more squarely on the U.S. threat, saying the promised reinvestment tax cut would bring billions of dollars into the economy to help Canada fight Trump’s unfair tariffs “from a position of strength.”
“We will be a nation that rewards strivers, builders, entrepreneurs and workers -- an economic fortress that will allow us to be stronger, self-reliant ... stand on our own two feet and stand up to Donald Trump,” he said.
While Sunday’s announcement acknowledged the dangers posed by waves of U.S. tariffs, Poilievre’s campaign has largely focused on familiar Conservative themes of cutting taxes and fighting crime.
Polls indicate Trump’s threats of levies and annexation have become the key concern for Canadians, and more than one poll has put Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor, at a significant advantage among voters when it comes to handling Trump.
Carney’s campaign has focused heavily on responding to the U.S. tariffs.
Following his first phone call with Carney on Friday, Trump appeared to soften his tone toward Canada, agreeing that the two countries would begin negotiating a new economic and security plan after the election.
With files from Dylan Robertson
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 30, 2025.
OTTAWA — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre brushed off suggestions of campaign turmoil Sunday as he pitched his party as the best choice to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump.
As the second week of the federal election campaign begins, another round of U.S. tariffs expected on Wednesday threatens to overtake the political conversation in Canada.
And Poilievre is still facing questions about growing concerns in Conservative circles over his messaging and polls that now show him trailing Mark Carney’s Liberals.
Poilievre visited a plastics factory in the Toronto suburb of North York Sunday, where he promised to allow investors to defer capital gains tax if they reinvest those earnings in Canada.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh planned to campaign in British Columbia on Sunday, while Carney had no public events scheduled.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet had planned to spend much of the day in Victoriaville, Que., while Green co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault were scheduled to attend the Juno music awards in Vancouver.
Poilievre dismissed the suggestion that he should focus his campaign more squarely on the U.S. threat, saying the promised reinvestment tax cut would bring billions of dollars into the economy to help Canada fight Trump’s unfair tariffs “from a position of strength.”
“We will be a nation that rewards strivers, builders, entrepreneurs and workers -- an economic fortress that will allow us to be stronger, self-reliant ... stand on our own two feet and stand up to Donald Trump,” he said.
While Sunday’s announcement acknowledged the dangers posed by waves of U.S. tariffs, Poilievre’s campaign has largely focused on familiar Conservative themes of cutting taxes and fighting crime.
Polls indicate Trump’s threats of levies and annexation have become the key concern for Canadians, and more than one poll has put Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor, at a significant advantage among voters when it comes to handling Trump.
Carney’s campaign has focused heavily on responding to the U.S. tariffs.
Following his first phone call with Carney on Friday, Trump appeared to soften his tone toward Canada, agreeing that the two countries would begin negotiating a new economic and security plan after the election.
With files from Dylan Robertson
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 30, 2025.
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