GOING UP

France rolls out plan to prepare for 4C temperature rise by end of century

The French government on Monday unveiled its long-awaited third national climate adaptation plan, outlining 52 measures aimed at preparing the country for temperature rises that could reach 4C by the end of the century.

People cool off under a mist outside the Eiffel Tower during the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, France. AP - Louise Delmotte

By: RFI
Issued on: 10/03/2025 -

Presented by Ecological Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the plan follows two years of preparatory work and a public consultation that gathered nearly 6,000 contributions.

"There is a very strong expectation from local elected officials, particularly in coastal, mountain or forest communities, but also from healthcare professionals and nursing home residents, who are already experiencing the effects of global warming," Pannier-Runacher told French daily Le Monde.

The plan establishes a reference trajectory for climate adaptation (TRACC) based on scientific projections from the national weather agency Météo-France, preparing the country for temperature increases of 2C by 2030, 2.7C by 2050, and 4C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels.


Adapting all sectors

To distribute resources effectively, it targets five main areas: protecting people, ensuring resilience of territories and essential services, adapting human activities, protecting natural and cultural heritage, and mobilising national resources.

Specific measures include creating a national map of exposure to natural risks, maintaining affordable insurance offerings even in high-risk areas, and improving housing to remain comfortable despite rising temperatures.

"Adapting is not giving up," Pannier-Runacher added.

"The idea is not to abandon efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but to accept facing reality and actively prepare for a rise in global warming whose impacts are increasingly felt in France."

France has already warmed by 1.8C above pre-industrial levels, and some scientists consider the government’s projections to be optimistic given the weakness of international commitments to reduce emissions.

How bolder targets, treaties and talks will steer a defining year for climate
Major investments

Nearly €600 million will be allocated to adaptation measures, the government has said, including €300 million from the Barnier Fund – set up for the prevention of major natural hazards – €30 million for clay soil shrinkage-swelling prevention, and €260 million from the Green Fund for local authorities.

An additional €1 billion from water agencies' budgets will be directed toward this issue between 2025 and 2030, “with nearly 40 percent for nature-based solution interventions”, according to the plan’s presentation document.

However, these amounts fall significantly short of what experts have said is necessary.

France Assureurs, the country's insurance industry association, has already deemed the Barnier Fund allocation insufficient.

According to the Institute for Climate Economics, between €1 billion and €2.5 billion should be invested annually just in new buildings, €4.4 billion for housing renovation, and at least €1.5 billion per year for agriculture.
Implementation worries

While environmental advocates welcome the plan, they express doubts about its implementation.

Nicolas Richard, vice-president of France Nature Environnement, told French news agency AFP the plan presents "a certain number of good intentions" but faces uncertainty about "whether they are funded and how they are managed".

The High Council for Climate previously judged the country's efforts inadequate, calling for a "change of scale in adaptation".

Natural disaster prevention fund takes centre stage in French budget debate

The Court of Auditors had also urged public authorities to "become aware" of the urgency of tackling this project, which it says requires a "wall of investments".

To ensure the plan’s implementation, Pannier-Runacher said she would work on specific roadmaps for four priority areas: forests, coastal erosion, mountains and agriculture.

The National Council for Ecological Transition will be responsible for monitoring indicators across sectors and providing annual progress reports.

"It is now necessary to implement and territorialise it, in full consultation with local elected officials," a ministry spokesperson said.