Trump’s Foreign Policy: Trade Corridor Geopolitics – OpEd

 March 11, 2025  

By F. Andrew Wolf, Jr.

Contemporary conflicts are increasingly geopolitical – orchestrated across multiple nations and domains, manifesting in many ways, from conventional ground engagements to strategic influence opera

For decades, international relations scholars have disregarded geography as irrelevant, reasoning that globalism had eliminated the need to consider it Yet, mountains, deserts, seas, gulfs and straits create chokepoints where belligerents (states and otherwise) can disrupt global trade and the world’s economy.

In the 21st century, long-term geopolitical power dynamics will h

Donald Trump’s rhetoric at least appears to suggest that he understands this. He continues to “double down” in his pursuit of a strategic initiative towards Greenland as a vital security interest for America – the importance of an emerging Arctic Ocean trade route. Likewise, his fixation on the Panama Canal underscores America’s strategic need to control key maritime chokepoints. And his Middle East initiative tracks the same logic: securing trade corridors that bypass rivals like Iran, Russia and China.

That’s why the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC-view image) should become central to American and European foreign policy. The IMEC is a planned economic corridor that aims to bolster economic development by fostering connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe. The corridor is a proposed route from India to Europe through the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Greece.

The U.S. and the EU have also proposed plans to establish a Trans-African corridor connecting Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia. IMEC effectively bypasses Pakistan’s veto over India’s overland connectivity to the West.

The project was launched in 2022 to bolster transportation and communication links between Europe and Asia through rail and shipping networks and is seen as a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The memorandum of understanding document has only mapped out the potential geography of a corridor and will compete against the current trade route going through the Suez Canal.

The project has been delayed due to the ongoing Israel–Hamas-Hezbollah war. The route is currently being used to bypass the Houthi blockade and is widely seen as a way to safeguard the India-Europe-US supply chain avoiding the Suez Canal. 

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, China relied on the Siberian trade corridor to move goods overland to Europe via Russia and Belarus. But after the 2022 invasion, Western sanctions severed this vital link.

In September 2023, former President Joe Biden announced the Economic Corridor at the G20 summit in New Delhi, creating a direct trade route from India through Saudi Arabia and Israel to Europe — bypassing Russia and Iran entirely. The move was designed to achieve three goals: Establish a new East-West trade route, offer an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and pull India away from the China-Russia economic bloc (BRICS+) toward the West.

For Hamas and Iran, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor was an existential threat. Hamas saw it as deepening prospects for Saudi-Israeli normalization, undermining its cause. 

Iran and Russia, meanwhile, have invested heavily in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC-view image) — a rival trade route linking Russia, Iran and India through a network of railways, highways and ports. The Transport Corridor has been in the works since 2002, with Iran and Russia pouring billions into its infrastructure ($38.2 billion). 

If the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor were to succeed, it would render the Transport Corridor of lesser importance to the Middle East and diminish Iran’s regional influence.

The INSTC is a 7,200-km (4500 mile) long multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road route for moving freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe. The route primarily involves moving freight from India, Iran, Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation via ship, rail and road. 

The objective of the corridor is to increase trade connectivity between major cities such as Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran, Baku, Bandar Abbas, Astrakhan, Bandar Anzali, etc. Dry runs of two routes were conducted in 2014. The results showed transport costs were reduced by “$2,500 per 15 tons of cargo.”

The primary objective of the NSTC project is to reduce costs in terms of time and money over the traditional route currently being used. By having improved transport connectivity between Russia, Central Asia, Iran and India their respective bilateral trade volumes will increase.A study conducted by the ‘Federation of Freight Forwarders’ Associations in India (FFFAI) www.fffai.org found the route is, “30% cheaper and 40% shorter than the current traditional route.”

The corridor is likely to increase trade connectivity between major cities such as Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran, Baku, Bandar Abbas, Astrakhan, Bandar Anzali etc. 

This was the geopolitical backdrop to Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack and the war that followed. Iran escalated the conflict into a regional crisis, using Hezbollah, the Houthis and allied militias to strike Israel.

But despite Iran’s efforts, the war resulted in strategic failure for Tehran: the U.S. and Israel weakened Iran’s regional coalition, Hamas and Hezbollah suffered significant blows and Iran’s economy inched closer to collapse. Tehran’s gamble — waging a war to block the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor — was costly.

Today, Trump has an opportunity to develop a positive image in the Middle East. Contrary to the views of some key US Congressmen, the president should not seek disengagement from the region as some have suggested. But any initiative should not be through force of arms. Rather, the US should reassert American strategic leadership economically and thus politically in the region through the IMEC initiative, the Abraham Accords and rebuilding Gaza.

To maintain its strategic global leadership, Washington must control the trade corridors of Eurasia and the southern east-west route comprising the IMEC, Panama Canal and Greenland’s Arctic region.

This approach should focus on neutralizing Iran through economic pressure and diplomatic negotiations, stabilizing Gaza by implementing the hostage deal and pressuring Saudi Arabia towards normalization with Israel.

A primary goal of America’s Foreign Policy in the 21st century should endeavor to establish American economic and political hegemony over global trade routes – especially through the Middle East and the Arctic region.

F. Andrew Wolf, Jr.

F. Andrew Wolf, Jr. is a retired USAF Lt. Col. and retired university professor of the Humanities, Philosophy of Religion and Philosophy. His education includes a PhD in philosophy from Univ. of Wales, two masters degrees (MTh-Texas Christian Univ.), (MA-Univ. South Africa) and an abiding passion for what is in America's best interest.