Sudden loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back ‘decades’
Sat, June 28, 2025
THE GUARDIAN
Tropical analysis meteorologist looks at monitors at Noaa’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, on 30 May.
Tropical analysis meteorologist looks at monitors at Noaa’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, on 30 May.
Photograph: Marco Bello/Reuters
A critical US atmospheric data collection program will be halted by Monday, giving weather forecasters just days to prepare, according to a public notice sent this week. Scientists that the Guardian spoke with say the change could set hurricane forecasting back “decades”, just as this year’s season ramps up.
In a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) message sent on Wednesday to its scientists, the agency said that “due to recent service changes” the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) will “discontinue ingest, processing and distribution of all DMSP data no later than June 30, 2025”.
Due to their unique characteristics and ability to map the entire world twice a day with extremely high resolution, the three DMSP satellites are a primary source of information for scientists to monitor Arctic sea ice and hurricane development. The DMSP partners with Noaa to make weather data collected from the satellites publicly available.
A critical US atmospheric data collection program will be halted by Monday, giving weather forecasters just days to prepare, according to a public notice sent this week. Scientists that the Guardian spoke with say the change could set hurricane forecasting back “decades”, just as this year’s season ramps up.
In a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) message sent on Wednesday to its scientists, the agency said that “due to recent service changes” the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) will “discontinue ingest, processing and distribution of all DMSP data no later than June 30, 2025”.
Due to their unique characteristics and ability to map the entire world twice a day with extremely high resolution, the three DMSP satellites are a primary source of information for scientists to monitor Arctic sea ice and hurricane development. The DMSP partners with Noaa to make weather data collected from the satellites publicly available.
The reasons for the changes, and which agency was driving them, were not immediately clear. Noaa said they would not affect the quality of forecasting.
However, the Guardian spoke with several scientists inside and outside of the US government whose work depends on the DMSP, and all said there are no other US programs that can form an adequate replacement for its data.
“We’re a bit blind now,” said Allison Wing, a hurricane researcher at Florida State University. Wing said the DMSP satellites are the only ones that let scientists see inside the clouds of developing hurricanes, giving them a critical edge in forecasting that now may be jeopardized.
“Before these types of satellites were present, there would often be situations where you’d wake up in the morning and have a big surprise about what the hurricane looked like,” said Wing. “Given increases in hurricane intensity and increasing prevalence towards rapid intensification in recent years, it’s not a good time to have less information.”
The satellites also formed a unique source of data for tracking changes to the Arctic and Antarctic, and had been tracking changes to polar sea ice continuously for more than 40 years.
“These are some of the regions that are changing the fastest around the planet,” said Carlos Moffat, an oceanographer at the University of Delaware who had been working on a research project in Antarctica that depended on DMSP data. “This new announcement about the sea ice data really amounts to blinding ourselves and preventing us from observing these critical systems.”
Researchers say the satellites themselves are operating normally and do not appear to have suffered any errors that would physically prevent the data from continuing to be collected and distributed, so the abrupt data halt might have been an intentional decision.
“It’s pretty shocking,” Moffat said. “It’s hard to imagine what would be the logic of removing access now and in such a sudden manner that it’s just impossible to plan for. I certainly don’t know of any other previous cases where we’re taking away data that is being collected, and we’re just removing it from public access.”
The loss of DMSP comes as Noaa’s weather and climate monitoring services have become critically understaffed this year as Donald Trump’s so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge) initiative has instilled draconian cuts to federal environmental programs.
A current Noaa scientist who wishes to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation said that the action to halt the DMSP, when taken in context with other recent moves by the Trump administration, amounted to “a systematic destruction of science”.
The researcher also confirmed that federal hurricane forecasters were left unprepared for the sudden change with only a few days of notice.
“It’s an instant loss of roughly half of our capabilities,” said the scientist. “You can’t expect us to make accurate forecasts and warnings when you take the useful tools away. It frankly is an embarrassment for the government to pursue a course with less data and just pretend everything will be OK.”
Scientists said the decision to halt the DMSP will result in immediately degraded hurricane forecasts during what is expected to be an above-average season as well as a gap in monitoring sea ice – just as Arctic sea ice is hitting new record lows.
Given increases in hurricane intensity and increasing prevalence towards rapid intensification ... it’s not a good time to have less information
Allison Wing, hurricane researcher
“This is a huge hit to our forecasting capabilities this season and beyond, especially our ability to predict rapid intensification or estimate the strength of storms in the absence of hurricane hunters,” said Michael Lowry, a meteorologist who has worked at Noaa’s National Hurricane Center and with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “The permanent discontinuation of data from these satellites is senseless, reckless and puts at risk the lives of tens of millions of Americans living in hurricane alley.”
The DMSP dates back to 1963, when the Department of Defense determined a need for high-resolution cloud forecasts to help them plan spy missions. The program, which had been the longest-running weather satellite initiative in the federal government, has since evolved into a critical source of information not just on the inner workings of hurricanes, but also on polar sea ice, wildfires, solar flares and the aurora.
In recent years, the DMSP had struggled to maintain consistent funding and priority within the Department of Defense as it transitioned away from its cold war mission. The only other nation with similar satellite capability is Japan, and messages posted earlier in June indicate that scientists had already been considering a switch to the Japanese data in case of a DMSP outage – though that transition will take time.
Related: ‘Flying blind’: Florida weatherman tells viewers Trump cuts will harm forecasts
Neither Noaa nor the Department of Defense specified exactly which service changes may have prompted such a critical program to be so abruptly halted.\
In a statement to the Guardian, Noaa’s communications director, Kim Doster, said: “The DMSP is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the National Weather Service portfolio. This routine process of data rotation and replacement would go unnoticed in past administrations, but the media is insistent on criticizing the great work that Noaa and its dedicated scientists perform every day.
“Noaa’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve.”
One Noaa source the Guardian spoke to said the loss of DMSP’s high-resolution data could not be replaced by any other existing Noaa tool.
A statement from an official at US space force, which is part of the Department of Defense, said: “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) operates the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) for the DoD on behalf of the US Space Force, who has satellite control authority.”
The official went on to say that Noaa receives the data from the US navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and added: “While the Space Force does provide DMSP data and processing software to DoD users, to include the US Navy, questions about the reasons for FNMOC’s changes to DMSP data processing should be directed to the Navy.
“Even as FNMOC is making a change on their end, the posture on sharing DMSP data has not changed. Noaa has been making this DMSP data publicly available, and many non-DoD entities use this data that is originally processed by FNMOC.
“DMSP satellites and instruments are still functional. The data provided to FNMOC is just one way the DoD uses DMSP data. DoD users (including the Navy) will continue to receive and operationally use DMSP data sent to weather satellite direct readout terminals across the DoD.”
The Guardian is approaching the US navy for comment.
The government cuts key data used in hurricane forecasting, and experts sound an alarm
ALEXA ST. JOHN
Fri, June 27, 2025
AP
FILE - A property owner, who preferred not to give his name, peers into the remains of the second floor unit where he lived with his wife while renting out the other units, on Manasota Key, in Englewood, Fla., following the passage of Hurricane Milton, Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)More
Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it would discontinue the “ingest, processing and distribution” of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department. The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.
It wasn’t immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defense Department referred questions to the Air Force, which referred them to the Navy, which did not immediately provide comment.
NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster, in a statement, called it a “routine process of data rotation and replacement” and said that the remaining data sources “are fully capable of providing a complete set of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve.”
Traditional visible or infrared satellites provide data that becomes images showing the structure, intensity and temperature of a storm, according to NOAA information, along with features such as lightning. But those miss the three-dimensional details of a storm. The microwave data gives critical information that can't be gleaned from the conventional satellites, and helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what is going on inside of it. It is especially helpful at night.
The news is especially noteworthy during the ongoing hurricane season and as lesser storms have become more frequent, deadly and costly as climate change is worsened by the burning of fossil fuels.
Microwave imagery allows researchers and forecasters to see the center of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather.
“If a hurricane, let’s say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it’s a day away from making landfall, it’s nighttime,” said Union of Concerned Scientists science fellow Marc Alessi. "We will no longer be able to say, OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that.”
Other microwave data will be available but only roughly half as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity or misplace the storm.
That “will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines,” he said.
University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy called the loss of data “alarmingly bad news” in a post on Bluesky.
“Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss — even gradual as satellites or instruments fail — is a big deal; but to abruptly end three active functioning satellites is insanity.”
NOAA and its National Weather Service office have been the target of several cuts and changes in President Donald Trump's second term. The Department of Government Efficiency gutted the agency's workforce, local field offices and funding.
Already, hurricane forecasts were anticipated to be less accurate this year because weather balloons launches have been curtailed because of the lack of staffing.
“What happened this week is another attempt by the Trump administration to sabotage our weather and climate infrastructure,” Alessi said.
___
Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate reporter. Follow her on X: @alexa_stjohn. Reach her at ast.john@ap.org.
___
Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment
___
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
Could hurricane forecasts get worse due to new government cuts?
FILE - A property owner, who preferred not to give his name, peers into the remains of the second floor unit where he lived with his wife while renting out the other units, on Manasota Key, in Englewood, Fla., following the passage of Hurricane Milton, Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)More
Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it would discontinue the “ingest, processing and distribution” of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department. The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.
It wasn’t immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defense Department referred questions to the Air Force, which referred them to the Navy, which did not immediately provide comment.
NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster, in a statement, called it a “routine process of data rotation and replacement” and said that the remaining data sources “are fully capable of providing a complete set of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve.”
Traditional visible or infrared satellites provide data that becomes images showing the structure, intensity and temperature of a storm, according to NOAA information, along with features such as lightning. But those miss the three-dimensional details of a storm. The microwave data gives critical information that can't be gleaned from the conventional satellites, and helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what is going on inside of it. It is especially helpful at night.
The news is especially noteworthy during the ongoing hurricane season and as lesser storms have become more frequent, deadly and costly as climate change is worsened by the burning of fossil fuels.
Microwave imagery allows researchers and forecasters to see the center of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather.
“If a hurricane, let’s say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it’s a day away from making landfall, it’s nighttime,” said Union of Concerned Scientists science fellow Marc Alessi. "We will no longer be able to say, OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that.”
Other microwave data will be available but only roughly half as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity or misplace the storm.
That “will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines,” he said.
University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy called the loss of data “alarmingly bad news” in a post on Bluesky.
“Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss — even gradual as satellites or instruments fail — is a big deal; but to abruptly end three active functioning satellites is insanity.”
NOAA and its National Weather Service office have been the target of several cuts and changes in President Donald Trump's second term. The Department of Government Efficiency gutted the agency's workforce, local field offices and funding.
Already, hurricane forecasts were anticipated to be less accurate this year because weather balloons launches have been curtailed because of the lack of staffing.
“What happened this week is another attempt by the Trump administration to sabotage our weather and climate infrastructure,” Alessi said.
___
Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate reporter. Follow her on X: @alexa_stjohn. Reach her at ast.john@ap.org.
___
Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment
___
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.
Could hurricane forecasts get worse due to new government cuts?
Stephanie Weaver
Fri, June 27, 2025
FOC NEWS
The Brief
NOAA said it would stop collecting and distributing data from three weather satellites that it jointly runs with the Defense Department.
The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane forecasts may become worse due to the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, experts are warning.
The move is the latest Trump administration push that could affect the quality of forecasting.
Could government cuts affect hurricane forecasts?
What we know
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it would discontinue the "ingest, processing and distribution" of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department by June 30.
The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.
The microwave data gives critical information that can't be gleaned from the conventional satellites, and helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what is going on inside of it. It is especially helpful at night.
Microwave imagery also allows researchers and forecasters to see the center of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather.
What we don't know
According to The Associated Press, it wasn’t immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defense Department referred questions to the Air Force, which referred them to the Navy, which did not immediately provide comment.
NOAA spokesperson calls cut off ‘routine process’
What they're saying
NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster, in a statement, called it a "routine process of data rotation and replacement" and said that the remaining data sources "are fully capable of providing a complete set of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve."
The other side
"If a hurricane, let’s say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it’s a day away from making landfall, it’s nighttime," Union of Concerned Scientists science fellow Marc Alessi, told the AP. "We will no longer be able to say, OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that."
Other microwave data will be available but only roughly half as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity or misplace the storm.
The Brief
NOAA said it would stop collecting and distributing data from three weather satellites that it jointly runs with the Defense Department.
The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane forecasts may become worse due to the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, experts are warning.
The move is the latest Trump administration push that could affect the quality of forecasting.
Could government cuts affect hurricane forecasts?
What we know
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it would discontinue the "ingest, processing and distribution" of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department by June 30.
The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.
The microwave data gives critical information that can't be gleaned from the conventional satellites, and helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what is going on inside of it. It is especially helpful at night.
Microwave imagery also allows researchers and forecasters to see the center of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather.
What we don't know
According to The Associated Press, it wasn’t immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defense Department referred questions to the Air Force, which referred them to the Navy, which did not immediately provide comment.
NOAA spokesperson calls cut off ‘routine process’
What they're saying
NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster, in a statement, called it a "routine process of data rotation and replacement" and said that the remaining data sources "are fully capable of providing a complete set of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve."
The other side
"If a hurricane, let’s say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it’s a day away from making landfall, it’s nighttime," Union of Concerned Scientists science fellow Marc Alessi, told the AP. "We will no longer be able to say, OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that."
Other microwave data will be available but only roughly half as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity or misplace the storm.
In this NASA handout, Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm at the time of this photograph, is pictured in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Yucatan Peninsula on October 8, 2024 seen from the International Space Station as it orbited 257 miles above
(Credit: NASA via Getty Images)
That "will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines," he said.
That "will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines," he said.
The Inertia
University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy called the loss of data "alarmingly bad news" in a post on Bluesky.
"Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss — even gradual as satellites or instruments fail — is a big deal; but to abruptly end three active functioning satellites is insanity."
NOAA job cuts
The backstory
Massive job cuts at NOAA have raised concerns among scientists and former agency heads, who warn the layoffs could compromise weather forecasts, disaster response, and key economic sectors.
The first wave of firings, carried out in February, marked a significant reduction in NOAA’s workforce. The agency is esponsible for issuing weather warnings, tracking hurricanes, supporting wildfire response, and providing oceanic and atmospheric data used across industries.
The NOAA workforce is responsible for producing more than 300 billion weather forecasts each year, reaching 96% of American households.
With 122 local offices, the agency also provides seasonal forecasts for farmers, aviation weather alerts for pilots, and oceanic data for the shipping industry.
The Source
This story was reported from Los Angeles. The Associated Press, previous FOX Local reporting contributed.
Hurricane forecast accuracy at risk as Pentagon cuts satellite data
Xavier Walton
Fri, June 27, 2025
(NewsNation) — As peak hurricane season looms, the Department of Defense has announced the abrupt shutdown of a program that delivers crucial satellite data, leaving meteorologists scrambling.
Starting Monday, the Pentagon will no longer accept, process or transmit real-time data collected aboard three weather satellites.
Forecasters have raised serious concerns, warning they’ll only receive about half of the data they’re used to, which they say will be problematic for tracking real-time data from satellites jointly run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Pentagon.
Lives could be lost without Pentagon data: Forecaster
Meteorologists have warned the move will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts, leading to potentially dire consequences for tens of millions of Americans living in hurricane-prone areas.
Video: Tornado nearly flips Florida home with woman still inside
“There are going to be cases this year when certain warnings are delayed because of this,” said James Franklin, retired National Hurricane Center branch chief. “It might mean that evacuations get delayed because of this, and you could lose lives because of this.”
Without satellite imagery, hurricane experts have warned of an increased risk of “sunrise surprises” — storms that appear manageable at night before rapidly intensifying, gaining speed and potentially becoming more powerful before dawn.
NOAA forecasts nearly 20 storms this hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center said the decision caught them off guard but that they are working to prepare.
NewsNation reached out to the Department of Defense for an explanation and was referred to the Air Force, which then redirected questions to the Navy. So far, no agency has provided a clear explanation for why the shutdown is happening or why it is happening
Franklin said warmer-than-usual ocean waters are expected to fuel another hectic hurricane season in the Atlantic.
NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms this season, with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph.
Weather centers lost employees across US
Weather forecasting offices across the country have been hit by significant staffing shortages.
Many National Weather Service centers no longer operate 24 hours a day, and the Environmental Modeling Center has seen significant personnel cuts. Since there aren’t employees to launch weather balloons twice a day, they have also lost that critical part of the satellite toolbox.
Even hurricane reconnaissance flights, known as “hurricane hunters,” can only fill part of the gap.
With half the usual data and limited staff, forecasters say this hurricane season could be especially dangerous. And with an above-average number of storms expected, the timing couldn’t be worse.
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Meteorologists are losing vital tool for forecasting hurricanes as the season starts
MATTHEW GLASSER and KYLE REIMAN
Sat, June 28, 2025
Meteorologists are losing a sophisticated tool that many say has proved invaluable when monitoring and forecasting hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced in a service change notice this week that it would be ending the importing, processing and distribution of data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS).
"This service change and termination will be permanent," wrote NOAA.
The SSMIS instruments are part of three weather satellites in low-Earth orbit and are maintained by NOAA in cooperation with the United States Department of Defense. The SSMIS provides critical weather information that can't yet be replaced by other satellites and weather instruments, according to NOAA.
NOAA's GOES-16 satellite captured this image of Hurricane Irma passing the eastern end of Cuba at about 8:00 am on Sept. 8, 2017.
The tool offers forecasters the ability to examine the inner workings of active tropical systems and understand their behavior. Specifically, SSMIS uses microwaves to penetrate clouds and obtain a clearer picture of the inner structure of a tropical cyclone, including its exact center.
Other weather satellites use visible and infrared imagery, which can only capture surface-level details of the cloud tops rather than what's happening inside the cyclone. These satellites are also ineffective after sunset when it's too dark to see and when direct observations over open water are scarce. Forecasters, therefore, rely on the data collected from the SSMIS system during these periods.
The SSMIS data not only allows forecasters to better monitor the current progress of a tropical cyclone but also to identify the center of the system for weather forecast models.
Marco Bello/Reuters - PHOTO: Tropical analysis meteorologist Aidan Mahoney looks at monitors as he works at his station at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Hurricane Center in Miami, May 30, 2025.More
Weather forecast models are sensitive to initial weather conditions and rely on multiple sources of accurate weather data for forecasting. Any degradation or discontinuity in the data, whether in terms of quality or quantity, could negatively affect the model's forecasting skill, scientists warn.
While there is other microwave data available to forecasters, SSMIS accounts for almost half of all microwave instruments, which would dramatically reduce the data available to forecasters. In a worst-case scenario, forecasters say it could lead to missing a tropical system that intensifies overnight, which would not be apparent from using infrared satellite imagery alone.
The SSMIS system is part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), which is operated by NOAA on behalf of the Defense Department's Space Force, which has satellite control authority
The DMSP program focuses on the design, development, launch, and maintenance of satellites that track weather patterns, oceanic conditions and solar-terrestrial physics.
A Space Force official told ABC News the U.S. Navy is responsible for processing the SSMIS data and providing it to NOAA and they are referring all questions about the decision to the Navy, which did not immediately respond to ABC News' request for comment.
NOAA - PHOTO: A screen grab of the NOAA website shows the announcement of the DSMP program being suspended no later than June 30, 2025.
In a statement, a Space Force official wrote that "satellites and instruments are still functional." The official added that Department of Defense users, including the Navy, "will continue to receive and operationally use DMSP data sent to weather satellite direct readout terminals across the DoD."
Scientists from around the country, meanwhile, expressed their concerns about the decision, stating that it will negatively impact the weather community's capabilities and accuracy in tracking life-threatening cyclones.
USSF - PHOTO: An artist's rendition of a DMSP satellite orbiting Earth.
Matthew Cappucci, an atmospheric scientist and senior meteorologist at @MyRadarWX wrote on X, "Please be aware that this change can and will have a negative impact on the forecasts relied upon by Americans living in hurricane-prone areas."
Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at ABC affiliate WPLG in Miami, wrote on his Substack blog, "The permanent discontinuation of data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines."
And Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, wrote on Bluesky that "For anyone near a hurricane-prone area, this is alarmingly bad news."
Space Force told ABC News that while the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) "is making a change on their end, the posture on sharing DMSP data has not changed," noting that NOAA has been making DMSP data publicly available, and that many non-Defense Department entities use this data.
Deep cuts to hurricane data could leave forecasters in the dark
Evan Bush
Fri, June 27, 2025
NBC
An artist’s rendition of a DMSP satellite orbiting Earth. (U.S. Space Force )
Forecasters are set to lose some of their sharpest eyes in the sky just a few months before Atlantic hurricane season peaks when the Department of Defense halts a key source of satellite data over cybersecurity concerns.
The data comes from microwave sensors attached to three aging polar-orbiting satellites operated for both military and civilian purposes. Data from the sensors is critical to hurricane forecasters because it allows them to peer through layers of clouds and into the center of a storm, where rain and thunderstorms develop, even at night. The sensors don’t rely on visible light.
Losing the data — at a time when the National Weather Service is releasing fewer weather balloons and the agency is short on meteorologists because of budget cuts — will make it more likely that forecasters miss key developments in a hurricane, several hurricane experts said. Those changes help meteorologists determine what level of threat a storm may pose and therefore how emergency managers ought to prepare. Microwave data offers some of the earliest indications that sustained winds are strengthening inside a storm.
“It’s really the instrument that allows us to look under the hood. It’s definitely a significant loss. There’s no doubt at all hurricane forecasts will be degraded because of this,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher and senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. “They’re able to detect when an eye wall forms in a tropical storm and if it’s intensifying — or rapidly intensifying.”
Researchers think rapid intensification is becoming more likely in tropical storms as the oceans warm as a result of human-caused climate change.
The three satellites are operated for both military and civilian purposes through the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of Defense.
While hurricane experts said they were concerned about losing the tool, Kim Doster, NOAA’s communications director, downplayed the decision’s effect on hurricane forecasting by the National Weather Service.
In an email, Doster said the military’s microwave data “is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.”
Doster said these models include data from geostationary satellites — a different system that constantly observes Earth from about 22,300 miles away and offers a vantage point that appears fixed because the satellites synchronize with Earth’s rotation.
They also ingest measurements from Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions, buoys, weather balloons, land-based radar and from other polar-orbiting satellites, including NOAA’s Joint Polar Satellite System, which she said provides “the richest, most accurate satellite weather observations available.”
A U.S. Space Force official said the satellites and their instruments in question remain functional and that the data will be sent directly to weather satellite readout terminals across the DOD. The Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center made the decision to stop processing that data and sharing it publicly, the official said.
Visible and infrared images show Hurricane Erick as it intensified from a Category 2 storm on June 18. (CIMSS)
The Navy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Earlier this week, a division of the Navy notified researchers that it would cease to process and share the data on or before June 30, and some researchers received an email from the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, saying that its data storage and sharing program relied on a processing station that was using an “end-of-life” operating system with vulnerabilities.
“The operating system cannot be upgraded, poses a cybersecurity concern, and introduces risk to DoD networks,” the email, which was reviewed by NBC News, said.
The move will cut the amount of microwave data available to forecasters in half, McNoldy estimated.
This microwave data is also used by snow and ice scientists to track the extent of polar sea ice, which helps scientists understand long-term climate trends. Sea ice forms from frozen ocean water. It grows in coverage during winter months and typically melts during warmer times of the year. Sea ice reflects sunlight back into space, which cools the planet. That makes it an important metric to track over time. The extent of summer Arctic sea ice is trending lower because of global warming.
Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said his program learned of the Navy’s decision earlier this week.
Meier said the satellites and sensors are about 16 years old. Researchers have been preparing for them to eventually fail, but they weren’t expecting the military to pull the plug on data with little warning, he said.
Meier said the National Snow and Ice Data Center has relied on the military satellites for data on sea ice coverage since 1987, but will adapt its systems to use similar microwave data from a Japanese satellite, called AMSR-2, instead.
“It certainly could be a few weeks before we get that data into our system,” Meier said. “I don’t think it’s going to undermine our sea ice climate data record in terms of confidence in it, but it’s going to be more challenging.”
The polar-orbiting satellites that are part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program provide intermittent coverage of hurricane-prone areas.
The satellites typically zip around the globe in a north-south orientation every 90-100 minutes in a relatively low orbit, Meier said. The microwave sensors scan across a narrow swath of the earth, which Meier estimated at roughly 1,500 miles.
As the Earth rotates, these polar-orbiting satellites can capture imagery that helps researchers determine the structure and potential intensity of a storm, if it happens to be in their path.
“It’s often just by luck, you’ll get a really nice pass over a hurricane,” McNoldy said, adding that the change will reduce the geographic area covered by microwave scans and the frequency of scans of a particular storm.
Andy Hazelton, a hurricane modeler and associate scientist with the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, said the microwave data is used in some hurricane models and also by forecasters who can access near real-time visualizations of the data.
Hazelton said forecasters are always looking for visual signatures in microwave data that often provide the first evidence a storm is rapidly intensifying and building strength.
The National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as a 35-mph or higher increase in sustained winds inside a tropical storm within 24 hours. Losing the microwave data is particularly important now because in recent years, scientists have observed an increase in rapid intensification, a trend likely fueled in part by climate change as ocean waters warm.
A 2023 study published the journal Scientific Reports found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean were about 29% more likely to undergo rapid intensification from 2001 to 2020, compared to 1971 to 1990. Last year, Hurricane Milton strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 36 hours. Some of that increase took place overnight, when other satellite instruments offer less information.
Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm at the time of this photograph, in the Gulf of Mexico off the Yucatán Peninsula on Oct. 8, as seen from the International Space Station. (NASA / Getty Images)
The trend is particularly dangerous when a storm, like Hurricane Idalia, intensifies just before striking the coast.
“We’ve certainly seen in recent years many cases of rapid intensification ahead of landfall. That’s the kind of thing you really don’t want to miss,” McNoldy said, adding that microwave data is “excellent at giving the important extra 12 hours of lead time to see the inner core changes happening.”
Brian LaMarre, the former meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service’s weather forecasting station in Tampa Bay, said the data is also useful for predicting flood impacts as a hurricane comes ashore.
“That scan can help predict where the heavier precipitation and rainfall rates can be,” LaMarre said. “This data is critically important to public safety.”
Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. It typically starts to peak in late summer and early fall. NOAA forecasters have predicted a more busy 2025 hurricane season than typical, with six to 10 hurricanes.
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