Japan’s Nuclear Talk Just Woke a Sleeping Dragon—and a Madman

January 3, 2026
By: Brandon J. Weichert

The National Interest 
Japan’s recent militaristic rhetoric has provoked the wrath of North Korea—but no one in Asia has any idea how Pyongyang will actually respond yet.

If there is any one thing that unites America’s Asian rivals, such as China and North Korea, it is a shared historical loathing of Japan. In recent weeks, the government of new Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi has provoked a verbal war with China over the issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty. It has claimed that, if China were to attack its democratic neighbor, Japanese forces would defend it.

That, in turn, has triggered a wave of historical resentment and recriminations—not only from China, but from North Korea. Of course, Japan is not only under threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and its seemingly unstoppable rise to regional dominance. It is further threatened by North Korea’s mad dash for nuclear weapons supremacy—and the fact that Pyongyang is not apparently constrained by international norms on their development.

North Korea Draws a Red Line for Japan

North Korea’s government promptly declared that Japan’s nuclear weapons ambitions “must be prevented at any cost.”

Perhaps it was just a little brinkmanship on the part of the North Koreans, who have long been the subject of Japanese, American, and global ire due to their unrepentant pursuit of nuclear weapons. Pyongyang might believe the shoe is on the other foot.

Yet one cannot underestimate the historical significance behind Japan being allowed to fully rearm. The brutality of Japanese forces in World War II—specifically directed toward Koreans and Chinese—are well-documented. This is why the Chinese and both Koreas have spent years on edge over the prospects that Japan’s military power was slowly being restored under the guidance of their American benefactors.

Of course, China and North Korea are replete with their own histories of brutality. But outsiders should not discount the real pain that the two countries experience when they see and hear Japanese rearmament underway. Indeed, that can possibly be used by these countries to justify their own military buildup and aggression toward their neighbors.

Tokyo’s comments about rearmament were specifically geared toward China. Now, however, Tokyo must bear in mind the threat that Pyongyang is clearly making toward it.

And while self-defense is a time-honored tradition in international law, the fact remains that Tokyo’s new government may have inflicted a significant headache upon themselves needlessly. China was not necessarily threatening Japan.

While Japan always had to worry about North Korea’s nuclear arms buildup, Pyongyang was not actively threatening Japan—until the recent statements about rearmament came from Tokyo.

North Korea Is No Longer a Second-Rate Threat to Japan

For all the talk about Japan’s military superiority—and there can be no doubt that Japan’s military is more powerful than it has been given credit for—it is important for Tokyo’s policymakers to understand that North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal, along with its chemical and biological weapons stockpiles and its increasingly advanced ballistic missiles, make it a serious foe.

A military buildup by Japan will take time. And the more threatened North Korea feels by that buildup, the more likely its leaders are to lash out at Japan long before Tokyo is prepared to fight back.

North Korea’s growing nuclear weapon arsenal is estimated to be around 50 warheads (though we don’t know for sure, given the opaque nature of North Korea’s regime). Intelligence assessments indicate that there are more than enough materials to rapidly produce more nuclear weapons for North Korea. What’s more, Pyongyang has perfected their ballistic missile technologies significantly and today possess a robust array of missiles, from short-, medium-, intermediate-range, and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

There remains some argument among experts, but the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessed a decade ago that the North Koreans had already mastered miniaturization of nuclear warheads. Now, North Korea is building submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Plus, Pyongyang’s alliance with Russia is giving it access to unprecedented new military technology—including advanced submarine technology—meaning that North Korea is now becoming a real regional powerhouse militarily.

As America Turns Inward, Japan Must Fend for Itself

Japan is understandably concerned about its position in a region that is quickly being upended by three trends: the rise of China, the advancement of North Korea’s military (thanks largely to Russia), and the reduction of American commitment to the Indo-Pacific. These three trends are clearly concerning to the Japanese government.

This is the real reason why Takaichi’s new government entered power by making such unusually bellicose statements. Tokyo really wanted to see what Washington’s reaction to the reaction of either China or North Korea would be. Thus far, it now sees that it is increasingly on its own

It is highly unlikely that Tokyo anticipated their comments about Taiwan’s sovereignty and China would have prompted such a nasty response from Pyongyang. Now, because of the historical grievances and the fact that the Indo-Pacific order is fundamentally changing, Tokyo will need to reassess the way it moves forward. Otherwise, China’s rise might be the least of its worries.

About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.