By Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein
We do not know the impact that the imposition of 10 percent tariffs on their exports by the Trump administration will have had on the inhabitants of Heard and McDonald Islands.
Most likely, we will never know, because the population of these territories is composed only of penguins, seals, turtles and seabirds. It has been more than ten years since the last time a human set foot on such rocky islets of 412 km² located halfway between Australia and Africa, whose economic activity based on the production of elephant seal oil and seal hunts ended in 1877.
This decision allows us – in some way – to understand the dimension of the recent measures taken by the United States in order to unleash a "trade war" against the world, which represents a real systemic hecatomb whose consequences are yet to be seen.
It does not seem easy to do this exercise, seasoned economists speak of "the end of globalization", "systemic catastrophe" or "destruction of the world trading system by a basic economic fallacy", according to the renowned professor of economics at Columbia University Jeffrey Sachs, who assures that Trump erroneously claims that the United States' trade deficit is due to the fact that the rest of the world has cheated him.
Another authoritative opinion, that of the American Economic Association, points out that "the formula used to set tariffs, published by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, has an error and lacks economic logic," assuring that "the calculation of tariffs has no support either in economic theory or in the legal framework of international trade." This prestigious institution considers that if the calculation errors were corrected, the country's economy could be boosted, favoring trade liberalization and reducing the risk of a possible recession.
So Trump's actions have no theoretical basis even in the economic doctrine of capitalism. However, it is not a matter of simplifying by saying that what is happening is total madness. I don't think so, I don't think that the world is suffering a strong systemic collapse motivated by a psychiatric dysfunction of the head of the administration of the most powerful country on the planet.
I think that everything obeys a coldly elaborated and calculated plan. Politics is a rational fact in which the subjective has a greater or lesser influence to the extent of the protagonism of the actors, whether they are individual or collective. But when the irrational exceeds the tangible, we are facing a situation that goes beyond the normal limits of analysis. Psychiatrists and psychologists would have to transform themselves into social scientists to explain what is happening.
It is not madness, but rather stupidity, stupidity, foolishness or whatever you want to call it. And these are not traits that characterize mental illness, but expressions of capitalist arrogance and arrogance as a response to a situation in which things are not going as desired, that is, in the same way that has been happening at least for the last 250 years or, many millennia before if we stick to the existence of class societies where the powerful have imposed will by force.
As if he were a monarch who holds all the powers, Trump overrides the legislative and judicial powers, disrupting with his practice the chimera of the balance of dominions assumed by liberal rhetoric. But just as Rome had Caligula and the Ottoman Empire Suleiman, Trump will fall by the very force of the system that he intends to overthrow in order to maximize the wealth of a minority sector of the American plutocracy.
In a supremacist attitude never before raised by another American president, Trump, acting even outside of a minimum rationality, assumes that his country has a power and a planetary mandate that cannot be questioned. His egomaniacal and arrogant mentality does not allow him to recognize mistakes, so he has surrounded himself with friends and family who praise him too much and always find him right.
Three months have passed since his arrival to the presidency of the United States, the world has not yet woken up from measuring the consequences of what it observes on the surface, to begin to glimpse that what is happening goes beyond a simple tremor that is felt in the crust to understand that in reality it is at the epicenter of a violent earthquake in the deepest part of the structure of the capitalist system. It is not just a matter of "making America great again", above all, what Trump is trying to do is to save the dollar, to save the hegemony of the United States and to save the capitalist system that is struggling with contradictions typical of its imperialist stage when the immeasurable growth of monopolies destroys the competition that is intrinsic to the system.
This is not new, already in the 70s of the last century a crisis of structural dimensions began to which an attempt was made to respond by implementing neoliberalism at a planetary level, assuming that it would be the panacea to overcome what was considered a superficial and cyclical impasse. This brought higher levels of exploitation of wage earners, violation of the most elementary norms and values of liberal democracy that had sustained the system for two centuries and the generation of conflicts and wars to activate the military industrial apparatus as a way out of the crisis.
However, since the measures taken over half a century have not aimed to solve the underlying problem, it has deepened to the point of becoming unmanageable. The U.S. deficit reached $59 billion in 1980. In that same year, the total federal debt amounted to $914 billion, an increase of $532 billion since 1970. On January 2, 2025, the debt limit was reinstated at $36.104 trillion, while the deficit was $2 trillion or seven percent of GDP. It is worth remembering that in that period Republican and Democratic presidents have governed, so it makes no sense to blame one or the other, much less take a position as if that were the cause of what is happening, while trying to hide the systemic crisis.
Sachs explains that "a country's trade deficit (or, more precisely, its current account deficit) does not indicate unfair trade practices by surplus countries. It indicates something else entirely. A current account deficit means that the deficit country spends more than it produces. That is, it saves less than it invests."
In the case of the United States, a way of life must be maintained based on chronic waste, especially by the ruling class and a middle class that spends, believing that it is immune to the ups and downs of the economy. Sachs also refers to this crisis as motivated by "chronically high budget deficits resulting from tax cuts for the rich, combined with trillions of dollars wasted on useless wars. The deficits are not the perfidy of Canada, Mexico and other countries that sell more to the United States than the United States sells to them."
The United States must sustain 800 military bases around the world, in which one million 240 thousand totally unproductive soldiers must be maintained by the State. It must also finance 11 aircraft carrier task forces that are in constant and unnecessary movement throughout the oceans of the planet. By the way, it is good to remember that the Houthis of Yemen, the poorest country in West Asia, have taken it upon themselves to demonstrate their total inefficiency. According to Trump, war in its warlike expression is not the best business for the United States, so he resorts to economic warfare thinking that this expedient can lead the United States to victory.
However, it should not be forgotten that, conceptually, "war is the continuation of politics by violent means" and that according to Lenin, "politics is the concentrated expression of the economy", so that everything that is happening has solely and exclusively economic causes, i.e. the economic crisis of capitalism and the United States.
To suppose – as Trump does – that this war is going to be won by increasing tariffs and that this is going to lead the countries of the world to eliminate their own, that companies are going to move ipso facto to the United States, that each country is not going to manipulate its currencies as a protective measure and that everyone is going to turn to buying American products... produced in the United States, is still a chimera of an arrogant spoiled brat.
Some of the consequences of these measures are already beginning to be perceived. The first to be hit is the people of the United States themselves. Some of the most renowned U.S. economists have announced that their country's trade deficit cannot be closed, on the contrary, they believe that the measures taken will impoverish American citizens and harm the rest of the world. Justin Wolfers, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, believes that the cost of living in his country will increase by six percent as companies pass on the additional costs to consumers. On the other hand, despite the contrary opinion of the administration's spokesmen, JPMorgan analysts predict that Trump's tariffs will most likely plunge the global economy into a recession this year.
In another area, it seems that the pro-Trump bloc in the U.S. Congress is beginning to crack. Four Republican senators joined Democrats in rejecting Trump's tariff policy in a key vote. This decision led the Senate to adopt a 51-48 resolution aimed at blocking the Trump administration's proposed tariffs on Canadian imports.
Likewise, in an unexpected response for Trump, China, which will now face a 125 percent tariff on its exports to the United States, has responded to every escalation by Washington. This could substantially increase the prices of several goods that Americans buy from China. Washington imported $439 billion in goods from China last year, the second main source of imports behind Mexico. It does not seem possible that the United States can win this "trade war" against China. Already during his last administration, the current president tried a conflict of similar characteristics, but much more limited, and lost it.
The evidence indicates that, beyond his promises and despite his overwhelming rhetoric and decisive decisions, Trump has not been able to occupy Greenland, has not been able to impose his plan for Gaza and did not stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Europe, the Arab countries and Russia respectively, have prevented him from doing so. Nor has it been able to sell the 100,000 five-million-dollar visas it offered. Likewise, no one in the world has stopped calling the Gulf of Mexico by its name.
Even on the issue of deportations, it has been "more the noise than the cabuya". Without ceasing to consider that this has been done outside of international law and even of the institutions and laws of the United States itself, the Trump administration has not been able to fulfill what it has proposed. In this regard, my colleague and friend Antonio García reminds me that: "with respect to deportations, one aspect that has gone under the table is that Trump, in a period similar to what he has done so far in his term, has deported fewer people than Obama and Biden. Biden's deportations were a scandal compared to others. In 2024 alone they reached almost 300 thousand, [...] in a similar period it exceeded those carried out by Trump. So Trump's 'massive' deportations have been a failure. That is the reason why he has needed to make a scandal with the Tren de Aragua and the illegal deportations to El Salvador in order to hide his failure."
Similarly, it seems that no one has explained to Trump the real situation of the United States. According to figures provided by the Wofnon portal, when in 2008 the GDP per capita of the European Union was 37,203 dollars, that of the United States was 48,570, a difference of 11 thousand dollars. In 2023, that of the European Union was 41,422 while that of the United States reached 82,769 dollars, that is, double. Under these conditions, does anyone believe that a European businessman will move his factories to the United States where he has to pay double wages to produce the same as in Europe at half price or in Asia where he pays 20 percent?
Another element of analysis is the collapse of the stock markets, which have not stopped falling since the announcement of the imposition of tariffs by Trump. The figures have ranged from -2.77 percent of Japan's Nikkei index to Apple's nine percent fall.
The United States' hitherto allies, still subject to it by their subordination in NATO and by military bases that provide them with security and defense, have cried foul. From Germany to Australia, from Switzerland to Japan and from France to Sweden, they have spoken of "unrest" and "tariffs more harmful than expected." The government of Belgium, NATO's host country, said that the United States "will end up burning itself by dint of playing with matches"... Others, such as the presidents of Argentina and Ecuador, show full subordination by being content with the tariffs imposed on their countries because they are lower than those of others.
But what is perhaps most important and forward-looking is the reaction of the people of the United States. In demonstrations only compared to those that opposed the war in Vietnam in the 70s of the last century, and under the slogan "Hands off!", around 1,200 demonstrations were held in a single day, last Saturday, April 5, in the 50 states of the U.S. Union in which more than 150 social groups and around 500,000 citizens participated to express their repudiation and rejection of the measures taken by Trump that affect their economic situation and their labor and human rights.
This conflict that Trump has initiated is not circumstantial or short-term, it does not have a tactical character. It is a mistake to characterize and analyze it as such. No. It is structural, long-term and strategic in nature. What is at stake is the survival of capitalism on the one hand and the survival of humanity on the other... and it is just beginning.
Lenin already pointed this out in 1916: "The epoch of the highest stage of capitalism shows us that certain relations are being established among capitalist groups based on the economic division of the world; at the same time, and in connection with this, certain relations are growing between political groups, between states, on the basis of the territorial division of the world, of the struggle for the colonies, of the 'struggle for spheres of influence'.
From this more than 100 years ago, much has changed in the world, but the essence is the same. This is a systemic conflict, it is much more than a trade war or a geopolitical confrontation. Even one of the largest billionaires on the planet, the American investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, says it, who today, April 9, in his account X stated that: "The most important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic rupture of the main monetary, political and geopolitical orders. This type of collapse occurs only once in a lifetime, but it has occurred many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions occurred."
Dalio added that we are witnessing the collapse of the geopolitical order because, according to him, "the era of U.S. dominance has ended as a result of Washington's unilateral approach that has been embodied in the trade war, geopolitical warfare, technological warfare and, in some cases, the military wars that it has led."
If someone asks why the United States attacks those who until recently were its allies, Lenin also has the answer: "... Intrinsic to imperialism is the rivalry between several great powers to seize hegemony, that is, to seize territories, not so much directly for themselves, but to weaken the adversary and undermine their hegemony..."
As I said before, this is just beginning...
RMH/SRG
Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein
Bachelor's degree in International Studies, Master's degree in International and Global Relations. PhD in Political Studies, he has an extensive and varied essay and journalistic work. To date he has published 17 books of his authorship and others coordinated as well as numerous articles and essays in almost 20 magazines in Venezuela, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Brazil, Argentina and the Dominican Republic among others, he has coordinated, compiled and participated in several collective publications in approximately 10 countries of Latin America and Europe, in addition to several small thematic books. His weekly opinion articles circulate in several newspapers and internet portals in about 15 countries in Latin America, Europe and Western Asia. He is an international columnist for the program Jugo de Limón hosted by journalist Sandra Russo on the Radio de las Madres de Plaza de Mayo. Buenos Aires. Argentina His published books are: • "When Fidel is not here", Vice-Rectorate Administrative - UCV, October 1993 • "The possibility of continuing to dream. The social sciences of Ibero-America on the threshold of the twenty-first century" (coordinator), Asturias, Spain. May 2000. • "Plan Colombia, globalization and hegemonic interests of the United States in Latin America" CDB Publications, Caracas, November 2000. • "Puerto Rico, a case of colonialism in a global world" Benemérita Universidad de Puebla. Mexico. 2003. • The Other Frontier Migration Policy in Chiapas (coord.) Government of the State of Chiapas. Mexico. 2006. • Paradiplomacy, the international relations of local governments (Coord.) H. Chamber of Deputies of Mexico LIX Legislature/ Government of the State of Chiapas. Mexico/ Miguel Ángel Porrúa, bookseller-publisher. Mexico City. 2006 • "Middle East and North Africa, a historical perspective", Ministry of People's Power for Communication and Information. Caracas. October 2011. • "The grass has caught fire throughout the continent. Stories of Our America". Center for Political and Social Studies of Latin America (CEPSAL) of the Universidad de los Andes (ULA). Mérida. Venezuela. 2012 • "The Time of Attempts. From the World Crisis to the CELAC Summit. File. Peru. August 2012. • "Missile Crisis. Cuba. October 1962". Claves Collection. Ediciones Correo del Orinoco. Caracas. Venezuela. January 2013. • "The balance of power. The reasons for the balance of the international system". Chilean edition. Ceibo Editions. Santiago de Chile. March 2014. And in Argentina. Editorial Biblos. Politeia Collection. Buenos Aires. August 2014 • "Colombia. Saying goodbye to war". Chilean edition. University of Chile Radio Press. Santiago de Chile. April 2016. • "Crazy World where I was born. An International System in Permanent Transformation". University of Chile Radio Press. Santiago de Chile. May 2017. • "The controversy between Bolívar and Irvine. The birth of Venezuela as an international actor". Vadell Hermanos Editores. Caracas, November 2018 • "China in the XXI Century: The Awakening of a Giant. Editions in Venezuela, Argentina, Chile, Panama, Dominican Republic, Mexico and Peru and in print in China and Puerto Rico. • "A monument among the most cultured nations. The treaties of Trujillo and the meeting between Bolívar and Morillo in Santa Ana", Monte Ávila. Caracas. Latin American Editors November 2020. • "Pandemic Imperialism. Latin America in the New Geopolitical Configuration" (Co-authoredwith Jorge Elbaum) Acercándonos Ediciones. Buenos Aires November 2020 • "From Bush to Trump. From the war on terrorism to the trade war" Acercándonos Ediciones. Buenos Aires. April 2021. • "Manuel Rodríguez en tres tiempos" (Comp.) América en Movimiento. Valparaiso. Chile. September 2020 • "The majestic march. The meeting between Bolívar and San Martín in Guayaquil. Monte Ávila. Caracas. Latin American Editors/ Approaching Editions. Buenos Aires. July 2022. • "NATO against the world. The conflict in Ukraine as an expression of the change of era". (Co-authored with Jorge Elbaum) Approaching Editions. Buenos Aires. September 2022 He has participated as a speaker in around 160 events national and international scientists and has also carried out work professor at the undergraduate and graduate level in Venezuela (Central University of Venezuela (UCV), Pedro Gual Diplomatic Academy, Institute of Advanced Studies (IDEA) and Venezuelan School of Planning), Mexico (University of Sciences and Arts of Chiapas) and China (University of Shanghai) to add to his research activity. He has received distinctions and decorations, including the 2016 National Journalism Award of Venezuela and the Aníbal Nazoa Award of the Necessary Journalism Movement. He was an advisor for the preparation of the Strategic Agenda for Foreign Policy of Ecuador 2009-2010 He was Coordinator of International Relations of the Government of Chiapas, Mexico, Director of International Relations of the Presidency of Venezuela, Advisor to the Presidency of Telesur and Ambassador of Venezuela in Nicaragua. Since March 2016 he has been a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Global Studies and the Graduate School of the University of Shanghai. China.
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