WAIT,WHAT?!
U.S., Russia In Quiet Talks to Bring Russian Gas Back to Europe
U.S. and Russian officials are quietly exploring pathways to restore Russian natural gas flows to Europe—an initiative that, if realized, would mark a seismic shift in post-Ukraine war energy dynamics, according to an exclusive report by Reuters on Thursday.
The talks, still in preliminary stages, are reportedly linked to ongoing peace negotiations and could involve U.S.-backed intermediary arrangements to facilitate pipeline transit through Ukraine or even Nord Stream infrastructure, Reuters reported.
Europe's Russian gas dependency collapsed from 40% to just 19% after the 2022 invasion, slashing Gazprom’s export volumes and forcing Europe into LNG deals at premium prices.
Yet now, with gas prices stabilizing and European voters balking at inflation, energy pragmatism may be edging out geopolitics.
The exclusive Reuters report comes just two days after the European Commission published a roadmap of its plans to end European dependency on Russian gas, which would ban imports of all Russian gas and LNG to EU member states by the end of 2027. Legislative proposals related to this ban will be tabled in June.
"No more will we permit Russia to weaponise energy against us... No more will we indirectly help fill up the [Kremlin's] war chests," European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen said in a news conference in Strasbourg on Tuesday, as reported by the BBC.
That roadmap and subsequent statements prompted Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov to respond to Reuters on Tuesday, saying the move would represent Europe “shooting itself in the foot”.
There has been a fair amount of skepticism as to how effectively Europe could cut off Russian gas entirely. In April, the EU was reported to be considering declaring a force majeure to negate natural gas supply contracts with Russian Gazprom, without huge penalties. However, this could prove legally challenging due to the fact that this move was not taken three years ago, when Russia first invaded Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine has ratified a strategic minerals deal with the U.S., giving American firms priority access to lithium, titanium, and rare earths—crucial inputs for defense and green tech. The deal includes a reconstruction fund, tying resource extraction to long-term rebuilding and Western alignment.
From a market perspective, this is classic high-stakes chess where energy, capital, and geopolitics collide. The possibility of Russian gas reentering Europe would ripple through global LNG pricing and threaten U.S. export competitiveness.
Meanwhile, the minerals pact gives U.S. investors a long-term stake in one of the few growth narratives still standing in Eastern Europe.
These are not isolated headlines—they’re signals of a shifting energy order, which will require investors to pay close attention to where the flows start to move again, and where the capital will follow.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
How Turkey Could Thwart the EU's Plan to Ban Russian Gas
The European Union aims to cut all Russian natural gas imports by 2027, but Turkey's growing role as a gas hub could complicate this effort.
Hungary and Slovakia continue to import Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline, boosting dependency despite EU intentions.
Turkey's plans to replace Ukraine as a transit route could extend Russia's gas influence in Europe, challenging Brussels' energy goals.
The European Union wants to quit all forms of Russian energy imports by the end of 2027. The EU has spoken a lot about this, but action has been mostly absent, with Russia still the second-biggest supplier of gas to the bloc. Now, a non-EU country’s gas ambitions could make Brussels’ task of quitting Russian gas even harder.
The European Commission this week announced plans to bring Russian natural gas imports to zero. This will, apparently, happen by the central government of the EU banning member states from signing new supply contracts with Gazprom while looking for a way to also get them out of existing contracts without having to pay penalties for breaching these contracts.
The first problem with this is that not all EU members are on board with the idea. Hungary and Slovakia are, in fact, very much opposed to the idea, arguing it would further compromise the competitiveness of European businesses for reasons relating to costs. Now, the Commission could get the two into line by adopting the plan with a qualified, rather than a full majority of member states. What it can’t do, however, is stop Turkey from turning into a gas hub, featuring a lot of Russian gas.
Hungary and Slovakia are currently getting their Russian natural gas supply via the TurkStream pipeline that runs under the Black Sea to Turkey and then on to Eastern Europe. According to one Bulgarian energy analyst from the progressive think-tank Center for the Study of Democracy, the existence of this pipeline can prolong the European Union’s reliance on Russian gas. Indeed, it has already increased Russian gas imports to Central and Southeastern Europe from some 30% back in 2021 to over 50% as of last year, Martin Vladimirov wrote in an op-ed for Reuters.
Tukey imports a lot of Russian gas. It uses some of it at home and exports the rest to Southeastern Europe. Turkey also has plans to become a major regional natural gas hub, both via imports from Russia and Central Asia, and through local exploration and production. The Turkish government has also made public plans to essentially replace Ukraine as a key transit route between Russia’s gas fields and European consumers.
According to figures cited by the Center for the Study of Democracy’s Vladimirov, Hungary is the biggest importer of TurkStream gas, with flows expected to reach 8 billion cu m this year. That’s up from 6 billion cu m in 2023. Slovakia, meanwhile, plans to ramp-up gas flows via the pipe by amending its long-term contract with Gazprom. Other countries getting gas from the TurkStream pipeline include Bulgaria, which is part of the transit route, Serbia, Romania, and some Western Balkan states.
Now, Vladimirov argues that these flows can be replaced entirely with liquefied natural gas. He does acknowledge, however, that this would come at a price, and it is not an insignificant price. This is what makes stopping Russian gas imports so difficult and what, combined with the presence of the TurkStream pipeline and Turkey’s LNG import terminals, suggests any attempt to bring those Commission plans to fruition is doomed. Because even if Brussels somehow bans Hungary and Slovakia from buying their gas from whoever they please, it would likely still continue to utilize Turkey as a middleman in gas supply—and gas molecules don’t come with a stamp of origin. The gas that the EU imports from Turkey in the future may be coming from Central Asia, but it may also come from Russia, despite any forceful measures to make sure this doesn’t happen. Just like it happened with oil and imports from India replacing imports from Russia itself.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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