A leading-edge review maps path to better Asian monsoon predictions under global change
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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The Asian monsoon is one of the world’s most influential climate systems, directly impacting the weather, water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods of billions of people across Asia.
view moreCredit: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
A comprehensive and innovative review, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, offers an in-depth examination of the progress, challenges, and outlook for Asian monsoon climate prediction in the context of global climate change. Led by Professor Bin Wang from the University of Hawaii at Manoa, an international group of scientists synthesizes decades of research to chart a roadmap for more reliable and actionable monsoon seasonal forecasts.
The Asian monsoon is one of the world's most influential climate systems, directly impacting the weather, water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods of billions of people across Asia. Accurate seasonal prediction of the monsoon, especially rainfall, is crucial for disaster prevention, food security, and economic planning in the region. While significant progress has been reached over the past two decades, current climate models still struggle with systematic biases, and the reliability of traditional predictors is changing.
The review systematically summarizes the foundations of monsoon climate prediction, highlighting three key theoretical pillars: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), atmospheric teleconnections, and monsoon-ocean interactions. ENSO, in particular, stands out as a major source of monsoon predictability, with different phases and types of ENSO events exerting distinct regional impacts on Asian rainfall patterns. However, the authors emphasize that ENSO is not the only factor at play. Other sources of predictability, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, land-atmosphere interactions, and remote influences from the Atlantic, North Pacific, and polar regions, also significantly shape monsoon variability. “A comprehensive understanding of these diverse sources of predictability is essential for improving monsoon forecasts,” states Prof. Wang.
The team underscores that external forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, are significantly altering the monsoon system. These factors not only alter shift rainfall patterns but also increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, making the monsoon more variable and more complicated to predict.
In addition, the authors discuss recent advancements in forecasting models and methods, including dynamical models, empirical prediction models, and hybrid dynamic-empirical models. Despite these advancements, significant challenges remain. Current climate models still struggle to accurately simulate key monsoon processes, such as convection and land-sea-air interactions, resulting in systematic biases. Monsoon predictability itself is inherently unstable due to the complex interplay of internal climate variability, remote forcing, and evolving ENSO characteristics.
To overcome these challenges, the review outlines a path forward, recommending a multi-pronged approach. “The future of monsoon prediction lies in integrating cutting-edge technologies with fundamental climate science,” Prof. Wang explained. “This includes leveraging artificial intelligence to capture complex non-linear relationships, developing models that can better simulate key physical processes, and improving our sub-seasonal predictions to bridge the gap between weather and climate.” The review emphasizes that strengthening observational networks, enhancing model accuracy, integrating research and operational forecasting, and promoting international collaboration and data sharing are also critical steps forward.
“We hope that this review will inspire new research and innovation to advance monsoon prediction further, ultimately supporting better risk management and adaptation across Asia,” Prof. Wang concluded.
The review is included in a special issue "Global and regional monsoons: State of the art and perspectives" organized by World Climate Research Programme Monsoon Panel.
Journal
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Article Title
Advancing Asian Monsoon Climate Prediction under Global Change: Progress, Challenges, and Outlook
Article Publication Date
25-Jul-2025
Engineer's work aims to improve tropical storm predictions
University of Texas at Dallas
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Dr. Kianoosh Yousefi, assistant professor of mechanical engineering at The University of Texas at Dallas, is developing a model based on machine learning to improve hurricane forecasting. Yousefi’s work is supported by an Office of Naval Research 2025 Young Investigator Program award.
view moreCredit: The University of Texas at Dallas
Tiny droplets of sea spray generated at the ocean surface can affect the intensity and evolution of hurricanes and other tropical storms.
Their impact, however, is not well understood because of the difficulty of measuring spray concentration and the size and velocity of individual droplets under high wind conditions.
At The University of Texas at Dallas, researchers are studying sea spray, particularly spume, or foam, droplets, in the lab to develop a model based on machine learning to improve hurricane forecasting. The model incorporates the effects of the spray generation function, which quantifies the rate at which droplets form.
Dr. Kianoosh Yousefi, assistant professor of mechanical engineering in the Erik Jonsson School of Engineering and Computer Science, received an Office of Naval Research 2025 Young Investigator Program (YIP) award for the project. The program supports academic, tenure-track scientists and engineers who have received their doctorate or equivalent degree in the past seven years and who show exceptional promise for doing creative research. Yousefi’s award provides up to $742,345 over three years.
“Dr. Yousefi’s YIP award will enable him to make important advances in understanding sea spray dynamics and could meaningfully improve weather forecasting models in densely populated coastal regions,” said Dr. Edward White, professor and department head of mechanical engineering and Jonsson School Chair. “This is an exceptionally challenging area for experimental measurements, and his approach to this, combined with high-fidelity numerical simulations, exemplifies the cutting-edge science he and the rest of mechanical engineering continue to pioneer in solving complex challenges.”
The goal of the research is to provide more accurate tropical storm forecasting without the need for expensive, difficult-to-access experimental methods. Yousefi and his team of researchers are using simulations and lab experiments involving a new wind-wave research tunnel. The research tunnel, which has a 40-foot-long water tank, can generate breaking waves so that the researchers can capture high-resolution data on spume droplets, which are as small as 20 micrometers, the width of a strand of human hair.
The researchers use high-speed shadowgraph imaging, a technique involving a high-speed camera to record the motion, size and shape of objects, such as the size and velocity of spume droplets.
“We are working to capture detailed information that will help us estimate the speed and momentum of spume droplets so we can better understand how sea spray is transported under different wind-wave conditions,” Yousefi said. “I am honored and very excited to receive support through the YIP award to advance this research.”
The resulting machine learning model will consider wave profile, wave slope, wind speed and other relevant parameters to improve the prediction of spray generation and its effects on storm intensity.
Yousefi, who joined UTD in 2023, is the principal investigator for the Flow Dynamics and Turbulence Laboratory, which focuses on the study of turbulent air-sea interaction processes, including surface waves and the accompanying generation of turbulence, spray, bubbles, airflow separation and breaking waves.
The new award recognizes Yousefi’s contribution to the fields of physical oceanography and turbulent air-sea interactions and builds on his research supported by a previous National Science Foundation award to study air-sea interactions in collaboration with researchers at Columbia University.
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