Monitoring hidden processes beneath Kīlauea could aid eruption forecast
image:
Kīlauea Volcano erupting.
view moreCredit: Sin-Mei Wu/ UH
The massive 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano on Hawai‘i Island lasted for months, destroyed neighborhoods, and was associated with 60,000 earthquakes. A new study led by researchers at the University of Hawai‘i (UH) at Mānoa revealed Kīlauea’s magma system started behaving anomalously about a year before the eruption began. This discovery, made using a unique seismic monitoring method, suggests that tracking these hidden processes could aid eruption prediction and volcanic hazard mitigation.
Scientists have long understood that magma moves within Kīlauea's complex plumbing system, but this study revealed a subtle, long-lasting change that may signal future events. Sin-Mei Wu, assistant professor in the Department of Earth Sciences in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), collaborated with a team of scientists that included colleagues from the University of Miami and the University of California, San Diego to investigate Kīlauea's internal dynamics leading up to the 2018 eruptions. The team found that about a year before the 2018 eruption, the normal upward flow of magma from the mantle to the summit's shallow reservoirs was disrupted.
“Our hypothesis is that a blockage formed between the volcano’s two summit magma reservoirs, impeding the flow, and pressure began to build beneath Kīlauea's East Rift Zone,” said Wu.
The team also observed that the lava lake inside Halema‘uma‘u crater dropped by about 30 meters--nearly the height of a 10-story building--while pressure in the deeper magma system remained stable.
“It remains unclear whether the unusual behavior we identified was a singular event or part of a recurring pattern that could influence future eruptions,” Wu added. “However, as continuous monitoring data accumulate, we expect to gain increasingly detailed insights into Kīlauea’s inner workings and its long-term behavior.”
After analyzing the data, Wu and colleagues hypothesize that magma was being diverted sideways from the summit and into the horizontal dike system leading toward the rift zone. This atypical pattern lasted for months until a magnitude 5 earthquake on the volcano’s flank likely released the blockage, sending more pressure into the shallow summit system for the subsequent months. From that point, the Kīlauea summit remained disturbed until the start of the massive 2018 eruption.
Using ocean waves to listen to Kīlauea
The team’s discovery was made possible by continuously monitoring Kīlauea with seismic instruments. Seismic waves are vibrations that travel through Earth, carrying information about the material they pass through. Instead of relying on energy from earthquakes, the team utilized seismic energy from a constant, natural source: ocean waves.
“The ocean provides a constant supply of seismic energy, allowing us to track the status of Kīlauea’s magma plumbing system over time, even when there are no noticeable earthquakes or ground deformation,” Wu explained. “When magma moves underground, it changes the pressure within the system and alters the surrounding rock, which we can detect with our monitoring tools.”
The study highlights the importance of the silent processes occurring beneath the surface, which can be revealed by combining seismic analysis with other geological and geophysical observations.
“As a UH Mānoa faculty member dedicated to understanding Kīlauea, my goal is to contribute to volcanic hazard mitigation and support the safety of Hawaiʻi’s residents,” Wu added. “We hope this study, and our future work, will help unravel these fascinating processes.”
The glow of Kīlauea Volcano erupting is visible at night.
Credit
Sin-Mei Wu/ UH
Journal
AGU Advances
Method of Research
Observational study
Article Title
Seismic velocity monitoring reveals complex magma transport dynamics at Kīlauea Volcano prior to the 2018 eruption
Article Publication Date
17-Nov-2025
Discover the world’s most dynamic geysers in a newly updated classic
Geological Society of America
image:
Book cover for Geysers: What They Are and How They Work, Third Edition. Credit Geological Society of America
view moreCredit: Credit Geological Society of America
Boulder, Colo., USA: The Geological Society of America (GSA) is proud to announce the release of Geysers: What They Are and How They Work, Third Edition, by noted geologist and Yellowstone expert T. Scott Bryan. This updated edition of Bryan’s classic work captures the drama, mystery, and science behind some of the planet’s most extraordinary natural phenomena.
In this richly illustrated guide, Bryan returns to the geysers of Yellowstone National Park—including Old Faithful, Castle, Grand, Steamboat, and Echinus—offering fresh insights into their shifting activity and distinct personalities. Readers will discover why some geysers erupt with clockwork regularity while others slumber for decades before roaring back to life, and what drives the breathtaking power that propels columns of water hundreds of feet into the air.
Using vivid color photographs and clear, engaging explanations, Bryan unravels how geysers form, why they appear only in certain geothermal landscapes, and what makes each one unique. This third edition features 95 color photographs, four detailed illustrations and maps, and a glossary, suggested readings, and index, making it an essential resource for park visitors, educators, and anyone fascinated by the dynamic forces shaping our planet.
Journalists may request a finished copy from klandow@geosociety.org.
Geysers: What They Are and How They Work, Third Edition
by T. Scott Bryan
ISBN 9780813741291 • Trade paperback • $22.00
8⅜ x 9 • 96 pages
95 color photographs • 4 color illustrations and maps, glossary, suggested reading, index
Publication date: 9 December 2025
About the Author
T. Scott Bryan earned degrees in geological sciences at San Diego State University and the University of Montana. He spent fourteen summers working as an interpretive ranger in Yellowstone National Park and later served in the Volunteer in Parks program. He was one of the founding directors—and the first president—of the Geyser Observation and Study Association and is the author of The Geysers of Yellowstone and GSA’s Arizona Rocks! He is also the coauthor of The Explorer’s Guide to Death Valley National Park, written with his wife, Betty Tucker-Bryan. Bryan is retired as emeritus professor of geology and astronomy at Victor Valley College in Victorville, California, and now lives near Tucson, Arizona.
About the Geological Society of America
The Geological Society of America (GSA) is a global professional society with more than 17,000 members across over 100 countries. As a leading voice for the geosciences, GSA advances the understanding of Earth's dynamic processes and fosters collaboration among scientists, educators, and policymakers. GSA publishes Geology, the top-ranked geoscience journal, along with a diverse portfolio of scholarly journals, books, and conference proceedings—several of which rank among Amazon's top 100 best-selling geology titles.
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