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Sunday, November 03, 2024

 Nigeria's hunger crisis deepens with 33 million at risk, report says


MacDonald Dzirutwe
Fri, November 1, 2024

FILE PHOTO: Food supplies are pictured before a food aid distribution by volunteers of the Lagos food bank initiative in a community in Oworoshoki, Lagos, Nigeria


LAGOS (Reuters) - Nigeria faces one of its worst hunger crises with more than 30 million people expected to be food insecure next year, a one third jump from this year due to economic hardship, a joint report by the government and United Nations said on Friday.

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, is grappling with a cost of living crisis that led to deadly protests in August.

Economic hardship has worsened after President Bola Tinubu started austerity reforms, including devaluing the naira and ending a decades-old petrol subsidy, fuelling inflation.

The analysis, conducted twice a year in 26 states and the federal capital, projected that 33.1 million people would be food insecure by August next year. That compares with 24.8 million by end of this year.

"Several factors are driving this trend, but most prominently are economic hardship coupled with record high inflation, a record rise in food prices and record high transportation costs," a statement accompanying the report said.

Chi Lael, World Food Programme spokesperson in Nigeria told Reuters that "economic decisions to strengthen the country in the long term, in the short term have felt like a direct attack on people's wallets, hitting hardest every time they try to buy food."
Finance Minister Wale Edun said on Thursday 5 million households had so far received cash handouts of 25,000 naira ($15.45), as part of the government's programme to help the most vulnerable families.

High food prices have contributed the most to inflation, which advanced to 32.70% in annual terms in September from 32.15% in August.

Flooding and insecurity in northern states continued to hit agriculture, further driving up food prices beyond the reach of many families.

Last month's floods destroyed an estimated 1.6 million hectares of crops, mainly in the northern food basket states, potentially causing production losses of a combined 1.1 million tonnes for maize, sorghum and rice, the joint statement said.

That is enough to meet the daily food needs of about 13 million people for a year.

In financial terms, the potential cereal crop losses amount to almost $1 billion in economic losses, the statement added.

($1 = 1,618.2600 naira)

(Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Ros Russell)

Monday, September 30, 2024

 

Africa: The 'Forgotten Crops' that Can Save Our Food System

MelodyChironda/allAfrica
Orphan crops are indigenous plant species that are not major crops and are often underutilized and under-researched.


30 September 202

Nairobi, Kenya — Neglected crops are among the underappreciated solutions for alleviating Africa's food and climate crises.

Worldwide, food security is increasingly compromised owing to climate change. From extended droughts to extreme heatwaves, agriculture is being reshaped. Africa is already grappling with widespread famine due to crop failure and low production rates, partly driven by land use and agricultural practice changes, which are even more pronounced now.

As the food and climate crises continue to cause suffering around the globe, neglected crops, also known as orphan and underused species, could be an effective tool in alleviating both crises in Africa.

Yet neglected crops - often overlooked but resilient - could help build a sustainable food system.

indigenous orphan crops historically cultivated by local farmers have good nutritional and medicinal value and thrive in challenging environmental conditions. Neglected crops, such as sorghum, millet, amaranth, eggplant, and kale, are often referred to as "Indigenous", "orphan", or "underutilized" crops. However, over time, they were largely forgotten by farmers, consumers, and policymakers and are now underutilized and overlooked in modern agriculture. Crop Trust, a global organization that works to preserve a wide range of food crops, says that neglected crops can be the key to providing affordable, nutritious diets.

Science, however, has neglected orphan crops, with little to no investment in improving their varieties.

"Orphan crops are important to farmers, consumers, and end users, but receive very little attention from mainstream research and organizations that promote agriculture across Africa," said Enoch Achigan Dako, agronomist and food professor of genetics and plant breeding at the University of Abomey-Calavi in the Republic of Benin. "Yet, they play a significant role in the food system and in managing livelihoods."

"Take, for instance, indigenous fruit trees," said Dako. "There are many, but most of the time, they are not well-researched or documented. We don't even have data or statistics about them for decision-makers to make informed choices about their production, processing, exports, or even local processing to benefit consumers."

Dako said farmers are left behind, as they solely maintain those resources. He said that opportunity crops are crucial in providing food and nutrition security and generating income for farmers, even if sold in small quantities to support their livelihoods.

To explain the neglect, Dako cites one plant in particular - the Bambara groundnut. 

"Many people know Bambara groundnuts and they span from Southern Africa to West Africa, and even to Northern Africa in some regions," he said. "Bambara groundnut is very good as a legume crop and offers several nutritional benefits. But how many organizations are processing Bambara groundnut today? How many research institutions are working on Bambara groundnut today? Do we have statistics or data on its local consumption, export, or income generation? The answer is no."

Dako said that it is important to focus on crops such as Bambara groundnut, finger millet, pigeon pea, okra, and amaranthus, as they are vital for livelihoods and food security.  "These crops are well adapted to the conditions of the African continent and thrive in the areas where they are grown and promoted," he said.

"With a little effort in improving their genetic resources, developing better cultivars, enhancing agronomic practices, and targeting useful traits, we can quickly increase their potential. These crops are well-suited to withstand the harsh environmental conditions and the impacts of climate change, which bring floods, droughts, and increased salinity. Nature has prepared these crops to stand up to those crises."

Facing the Climate Crisis

"Climate challenges are also contributing to several critical issues. We're witnessing severe droughts, which are often followed by floods, like what we currently see in the Niger-Sahel region, where floods are occupying lands previously untouched by water," Dako said.

"The changing environment poses a significant challenge, and we must pay close attention to how our crop diversity is adapting to these changes."

He added that it becomes clear that many of the staple crops we rely on - like maize, rice, cassava, and even yams in West Africa - are in decline. For example, the staple food for Ugali in Nairobi, Kenya, is being affected. 

"As a result, we are losing the potential for growth by around 14% to 17%," Dako said. "At the same time, we've identified many other crops with strong adaptability that could be promoted. So the pressing question today is: Which crops can help us meet the challenges of today and tomorrow? What can we pass on to future generations?"

"These crops, without a doubt, play an important role in our communities, yet remain neglected. We fail to emphasize the knowledge and research needed to improve them. What makes orphan crops so special? They are well-adapted to the local agricultural environment, deeply embedded in cultural systems, and familiar to the local communities. Furthermore, many of them possess nutraceutical qualities, serving both as food and as remedies for various diseases."

The Future of Crop Diversity

Crop diversity creates an agricultural ecosystem that is profitable and resilient to climate change. But there's a worrying trend - crop diversity is shrinking.

"Crop diversity has always been in farming systems. It's us from mainstream research or from development organizations who are bringing monoculture, the practice of growing only one crop," said Dako. Farmers and indigenous people are used to diversifying their production systems. They increase the number of species or crops they grow, not only for the beauty of doing it, but to sustain their livelihood, to have at least a harvest from each crop, and to increase the diversity and sources of nutrients they use for food and nutrition.

"We, from the major organizations, should re-enrich the production system, increase the diversity, and stop promoting monoculture where it shouldn't be," he said. "The next part of the question is...  What steps are needed to protect it?"

We need to increase awareness and support what our farmers are already doing. Increase capacity, teach more, and share more skills," said Dako. "Importantly, we have to mobilize our government to input orphan crops into the agenda and save resources for the promotion, cultivation, production, commercialization, and consumption of those crops. If the interest of our government is not refocused on those crops, we will walk in vain."

Orphan Crops in Gene Banks?

In regions that face environmental challenges, orphan crops play a crucial role in gene banks by preserving genetic diversity and improving food security.

"I believe that all orphan crops with seed dormancy behavior should be kept in gene banks," said Dako. If we do not safeguard our orphan crops in gene banks, then the support that we give to major crops will not be expanded to those orphan crops", Dako said.

"Take a crop like finger millet. The genetic diversity available should be kept somewhere, and the best place to keep it is in gene banks," he said. "Besides on-farm conservation, we need to keep them in situ in gene banks for users, breeders, farmers, and seed companies to have access to it and to make good use of the gene plants available."

Hunger continues to be a great concern as over 700 million people are still food insecure across the globe. According to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), there are wide implications due to the global reliance on a limited set of food crops. FAO reports that many children in low- and middle-income countries suffer from stunted growth and lack key nutrients. The situation in Africa is particularly dire, where nearly 282 million people on the continent face undernourishment.

Next steps

"I will urge, I will beg our farmers to continue conserving the way they have been doing it before, those crops. It's because they were there keeping those crops that we can still find them today and collect them and save them in gene banks. So if I have advice, I will solicit the understanding that they should continue what they are doing. It's priceless. Nobody is paying them for that. Nobody is giving them money to keep genetic resources in their field. They are doing it for the sake of humanity," said Dako.

Dako said he wanted the media to draw attention to the funding, development, and research of those orphan opportunity crops, since if we increase the potential of these crops, it will benefit both the government and everyone.

"I want the decision makers to be keen on generating data, producing statistics that can help everyone to make decisions. If we continue pulling all those crops that we don't have information about if we continue pulling them in a category called 'others,' then we will not survive the thing," he said.

"We need to change our approach. We need to change the paradigm. An economic or market approach is very important to promote orphan crops. We can't do that without clear regulation, without support from official institutions, universities, and research institutions. Without good research, there is no economic growth for any country."

Friday, September 13, 2024

South Sudan Floods: The First Example Of a Mass Population Permanently Displaced by Climate Change?
September 12, 2024
Source: The Conversation


Image by MSF, CC BY-SA

Enormous floods have once again engulfed much of South Sudan, as record water-levels in Lake Victoria flow downstream through the Nile. More than 700,000 people have been affected. Hundreds of thousands of people there were already forced from their homes by huge floods a few years ago and were yet to return before this new threat emerged.

Now, there are concerns that these displaced communities may never be able to return to their lands. While weather extremes regularly displace whole communities in other parts of the world, this could be the first permanent mass displacement due to climate change.

In the Sudd region of South Sudan, the Nile passes through a vast network of smaller rivers, swamps and floodplains. It’s one of the world’s largest wetlands. Flood levels vary significantly from year to year, mostly caused by fluctuations in water levels in Lake Victoria and controlled releases from the dam in Uganda where the lake empties into the Nile.

The Sudd’s unique geography means that floods there are very different to elsewhere. Most floodwater cannot freely drain back into the main channel of the White Nile, and water struggles to infiltrate the floodplain’s clay and silt soil. This means flooding persists for a long time, often only receding as the water evaporates.

People can no longer cope

The communities who live in the Sudd, including the Dinka, Nuer, Anyuak and Shilluk, are well adapted to the usual ebb and flow of seasonal flooding. Herders move their cattle to higher ground as flood waters rise, while indigenous earth walls made of compressed mud protect houses and infrastructure. During the flooding season, fishing sustains local communities. When floods subside, crops like groundnuts, okra, pumpkins, sorghum and other vegetables are planted.

However, the record water levels and long duration of recent flooding have stretched these indigenous coping mechanisms. The protracted state of conflict in the country has further reduced their ability to cope. Community elders who spoke to our colleagues at the medical humanitarian aid charity Médecins Sans Frontières said that fear of conflict and violence inhibited them from moving to regions of safe ground they had found during a period of major flooding in the early 1960s.

Around 2.6 million people were displaced in South Sudan between 2020 and 2022 alone, a result of both conflict and violence (1 million) and flooding (1.5 million). In practice, the two are interlinked, as flooding has caused displaced herders to come into conflict with resident farmers over land.

Stagnant floodwater also leads to a rise in water-borne infections like cholera and hepatitis E, snakebites, and vector-borne diseases like malaria. As people become malnourished, these diseases become more dangerous. Malnutrition is already a big problem, especially for the 800,000 or so people who have fled into South Sudan from Sudan following the start of a separate conflict there in April 2023.

Many people are housed in internal displacement camps like at Bentiu, where close to 100,000 people reside. Bentiu is now an island in the floodwaters, protected by embankments which require continued maintenance, as such there are concerns about the long term future and sustainability of the camp.

The new record levels in Lake Victoria this May raised the alarm over potential unprecedented flooding in the country this year. The two-and-a-half months it takes for floodwaters to make their way downstream to South Sudan provides an early warning system for communities and humanitarian agencies to prepare. However, forecast models are not able to accurately predict if the embankments at camps like Bentiu will hold.

Will people ever return?

Evacuating the camp may be inevitable, some say, because floods seem to be getting worse, likely linked to deforestation and anthropogenic climate change. However, while there is a clear upward trend to lake levels across East Africa, including Lake Victoria, this could also be down to the way water and land is being managed, as well as changes to precipitation.

Though there have been increases in the rainfall during the region’s short rains in October, November and December, that’s balanced out by decreases in the rainfall season between March and May.

However, climate models indicate increases in precipitation in the catchment, as well as more frequent positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (a weather phenomenon similar to El Niño in the Pacific) which caused the record rainfall in 2020 and 2023. With floods taking a long time to recede, even small increases the frequency of these positive dipole phases, and small increases in rainfall, could lead to the Sudd wetlands growing – permanently.

Decision-makers in a country affected by conflict are used to uncertain futures, but will also need to consider a scenario in which a irreversible expansion of the Sudd wetlands could make the displacement permanent. Where these communities could be relocated is another question entirely.

ZNetwork is funded solely through the generosity of its readers.Donate

Liz Stephens
Liz Stephens is a Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience, University of Reading.

Wednesday, September 04, 2024

 

Illinois scientists to test modernized genetic model for optimized crop breeding





University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences
Testing omnigenic model for crop breeding 

image: 

The University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign's Alex Lipka (left) and Colorado State University's Geoffrey Morris (right) will test the omnigenic model for its utility in crop breeding, thanks to new funding from the National Science Foundation. 

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Credit: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and Colorado State University




URBANA, Ill. — The National Science Foundation (NSF) has funded University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign research that aims to connect the dots between quantitative and molecular genetics and improve crop breeding.

The four-year, $795,000 grant investigates new theories on how genetics influence complex crop traits, such as yield or grain quality. These traits are controlled by lots of different genes — sometimes hundreds or thousands — which makes untangling their contributions difficult. Crop breeders use a host of advanced genetic tools to predict and select desirable complex traits, but these tools rely on outdated genetic understanding, believes project leader Alex Lipka.

“The theory used to quantify genetic contributions to traits in statistical models stems back from 1918. In 1918, they didn’t have the central dogma of molecular biology, so they didn’t even know that DNA had two strands. There are over a century of advancements that have not been incorporated into the most widely used models to quantify genetic architecture,” said Lipka, an associate professor in the Department of Crop Sciences, part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences (ACES) at Illinois. 

An emerging genetic framework called the omnigenic model incorporates modern advances in molecular biology into classical genetic theory. The omnigenic model divides all the genes in an organism’s genome into two components: core genes and peripheral genes. According to the model, the core genes directly control the trait of interest. If, for example, several core genes for plant height are switched on, the plant should be taller. 

Peripheral genes, on the other hand, do not directly control the trait but can still subtly impact it. These genes are involved in cellular processes that influence how the core genes direct the trait. For example, a peripheral gene might produce a protein that can travel within the cell and change the activity of a plant height core gene. While the effects of the peripheral genes may be small individually, added together they can contribute even more to genetic variability than core genes. 

If the omnigenic model is correct, Lipka believes that incorporating peripheral genes could advance breeding tools. “If we can harness the collective effects of the peripheral genes, then there can be really powerful ramifications for getting and selecting for optimal trait values,” Lipka said. 

Lipka and his collaborator Geoffrey Morris at Colorado State University, who also received an NSF grant for this project, will develop statistical methods for testing the omnigenic model in crops. 

“We don’t currently have the statistical tools to properly assess evidence of the omnigenic model,” Lipka said. “We’re going to develop these tools and test them out in a biologically rigorous manner.”

They plan to use a software package previously developed by Lipka’s team to simulate how core genes, peripheral genes, and the interaction between genes could affect complex traits in a simulated crop population. Their simulations will be informed with data from Arabidopsis, a model plant species, and sorghum, a climate-resilient crop widely eaten in areas of the world with food insecurity. 

"It's difficult for plant breeders to keep pace with a changing climate and increasing food demand," said Morris, whose team supports plant breeding programs around the world. "In this project, new methods will first be rigorously tested with data sets from ongoing breeding partnerships in the U.S., Senegal, and Haiti. Ultimately, though, our goal is to see these methods deployed by plant breeders to identify high-yielding, climate-resilient varieties."

They will simulate multiple populations with different types of selection and selection intensity, repeat this for several generations, and ultimately quantify evidence for or against the omnigenic model. By the end of the project, they will put all of their work into a new software package that other researchers can use to test and apply the model.

“In some of the preliminary studies, the omnigenic model actually seems like it might be working, which is just really cool,” Lipka said. 

Lipka is also affiliated with the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, the Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, and the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at Illinois.


New machine learning model offers simple solution to predicting crop yield



Feature engineering improves upon genotype-by-environmental interaction model




University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture

Sam Fernandes and Igor Fernandes 

image: 

Sam Fernandes, left, assistant professor of agricultural statistics and quantitative genetics with the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, and Igor Fernandes, statistics and analytics master's student, have worked to improve a crop yield prediction model using environmental data.

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Credit: U of A System Division of Agriculture photo by Paden Johnson




By John Lovett

U of A System Division of Agriculture

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — A new machine-learning model for predicting crop yield using environmental data and genetic information can be used to develop new, higher-performing crop varieties.

Igor Fernandes, a statistics and analytics master’s student at the University of Arkansas, entered agriculture studies with a data science background and some exposure to agronomy as an undergraduate assistant for Embrapa, the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation. With an outsider’s perspective and a history working with environmental data through one of his former advisers, he developed a novel approach to forecasting how crop varieties will perform in the field.

His interest in the subject led to a recently published study co-authored with his adviser, Sam Fernandes, an assistant professor of agricultural statistics and quantitative genetics with the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, the research arm of the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

The study, published in the Theoretical and Applied Genetics journal, is titled “Using machine learning to combine genetic and environmental data for maize grain yield predictions across multi-environment trials.”

“Igor came in from statistics with no genetics background,” Sam Fernandes said. “So, he had this idea that was not at all what we would use in genetics, and it was just surprising that it worked well.”

Igor Fernandes’ model, which focused on environmental data, led him to a close second in this year’s international Genome to Fields competition. Co-authors of the study that stemmed from the competition entry included Caio Vieira, an assistant professor of soybean breeding for the experiment station, and Kaio Dias, assistant professor in the department of general biology at the Federal University of Viçosa in Brazil.

Environment and genetics

While the competition entry showed environmental data alone worked better than expected at predicting crop yield, the researchers saw an opportunity to build a comprehensive study that compared the novel approach to established prediction models used in genomic breeding.

Genomic breeding, a process of screening thousands of candidates for field trials based on DNA alone, can save time and resources needed to develop a new plant variety, such as growing better in drought conditions. An important part of genomic breeding involves genomic prediction to estimate a plant’s yield using its DNA.

“Let’s say you have thousands of candidates, and you get the DNA from all of them,” Sam Fernandes explains. “Based on the DNA along with information from previous field trials, you are able to tell which one will be the highest yielding without planting it in the field. So, you’re saving resources that way. This is genomic prediction.”

Adding information into a model on how that plant would interact with environmental conditions increases the accuracy of the genomic prediction and is becoming more common as more environmental data from testing centers becomes available. The practice is called “enviromics.” Still, there is no consensus on the best machine learning approach to combine environmental and genetic data.

“One advantage of including the environment information in the models is that you can address what we call genotype-by-environmental interaction,” Sam Fernandes said. “Since the environment does not affect all of the individuals in the same way, we try to account for all of that, so we are able to select the best individual. And the best individual can be different depending on the place and season.”

The study used the same data on corn plots from the Genomes to Fields Initiative that were used in the competition, but the researchers adjusted inputs as genetic, environmental, or a combination of both in “additive” and “multiplicative” manners. When including environmental and genetic data in a more straightforward “additive” manner, the prediction accuracy was better than the more complicated “multiplicative” manner.

The simpler model took less time for the computer to process, and the mean prediction accuracy improved 7 percent over the established model. The experiment was validated in three scenarios typically encountered in plant breeding.

“One of the unique things that Igor did is how he processed the environmental data,” Sam Fernandes said. “There are fancier models that people can throw in all sorts of information. But what Igor did is a simple, yet efficient way of combining the genetic and environmental data using feature engineering to process the information and get a summary of variables that is more informative.”

Collectively, the researchers say the results are promising, especially with the increasing interest in combining environmental features and genetic data for prediction purposes. Their immediate goal is to apply it to increase the capability of screening genotypes for field trials.

​To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website. Follow on 𝕏 at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit uada.edu. Follow us on 𝕏 at @AgInArk. To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit uaex.uada.edu.

About the Division of Agriculture

The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.

The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on five system campuses.

The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.

Monday, September 02, 2024


Africa faces disproportionate burden from climate change and adaptation costs

WMO Press Release
02 September 2024

Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire (WMO) - Africa bears an increasingly heavy burden from climate change and disproportionately high costs for essential climate adaptation, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Key messages
Temperature increases in Africa slightly above the global average
Multi-year droughts continued in northwest Africa in 2023
Extreme floods caused severe losses and damages
African countries face increasing climate change bill
Investment in early warnings will protect lives and economies





On average, African countries are losing 2–5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and many are diverting up to 9 percent of their budgets responding to climate extremes. In sub-Saharan Africa, the cost of adaptation is estimated to be between US$ 30-50 billion annually over the next decade, or 2-3 percent of the region's Gross Domestic Product, says the WMO State of the Climate in Africa 2023 report.

By 2030, it is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people (living on less than US$ 1.90 per day) will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat in Africa, if adequate response measures are not put in place. This will place additional burdens on poverty alleviation efforts and significantly hamper growth, according to figures cited in the report.

African countries need to prioritize increased investment in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and accelerate implementation of the Early Warnings For All initiative to save lives and livelihoods. This will help mitigate risks, build adaptive capacity, boost resilience at local, national, and regional levels and guide sustainable development strategies, says the report.

It focuses on climate change indicators and impacts in 2023 – the world’s hottest year on record to date. It supplements the WMO State of the Global Climate report and is one of a series of WMO regional reports which provide the observational basis to help drive action and support decision-making.

“Over the past 60 years, Africa has observed a warming trend that has become more rapid than the global average. In 2023, the continent experienced deadly heatwaves, heavy rains, floods, tropical cyclones, and prolonged droughts,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

“While many countries in the Horn of Africa, southern and North-West Africa continued to suffer exceptional multi-year drought, other countries experienced extreme precipitation events in 2023 leading to flooding with significant casualties. These extreme events led to devastating impacts on communities, with serious economic implications,” said Celeste Saulo.

“This pattern of extreme weather has continued in 2024. Parts of southern Africa have been gripped by damaging drought. Exceptional seasonal rainfall has caused death and devastation in East African countries, most recently in Sudan and South Sudan. This exacerbates an already desperate humanitarian crisis,” she said.

WMO, the African Union Commission, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology will release the report in collaboration with partners at the 12th Climate Change for Development in Africa (CCDA) Conference in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire on 2 September 2024.

“The State of Climate in Africa 2023 Report highlights the urgent need for investing in meteorological services and early warning systems to help adapt to climate change and build resilience in Africa. As the impacts of climate change continue to manifest globally, the African continent stands at a critical juncture,” said H.E. Ambassador Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko, Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment at the African Union Commission.

“Africa faces disproportionate burdens and risks arising from climate change related weather events and patterns, which cause massive humanitarian crises with detrimental impacts on agriculture, and food security, education, energy, infrastructure, peace, and security, public health, water resources, and overall socio-economic development,” she said.

Key messages

Temperatures: In Africa, 2023 was in the top three warmest years in the 124-year record, depending on the dataset used. The mean temperature was 0.61° C higher than the 1991-2020 average and 1.23° C above the 1961-1990 long-term baseline.

The African continent has been warming at a slightly faster rate than the global average, at about +0.3 °C per decade between 1991 and 2023. The warming has been most rapid in North Africa, around +0.4 °C per decade between 1991 and 2023, compared to +0.2 °C/decade between 1961 and 1990. Southern Africa experienced the lowest warming trend compared to the other sub-regions, around +0.2 °C/decade between 1991 and 2023.

The highest temperature anomalies in 2023 were recorded across northwestern Africa, especially in Morocco, coastal parts of Mauritania and northwest Algeria.

Several countries including Mali, Morocco, United Republic of Tanzania, and Uganda reported their warmest year on record. Extreme heatwaves in July and August affected northern Africa. Tunis, the capital of Tunisia reached a record of 49.0°C and Agadir, Morocco reached a new maximum temperature of 50.4°C.


Temperature difference in °C with respect to the 1991–2020 climatological period for Africa (WMO Regional Association I) from 1900 to 2023, based on six datasets, including observational datasets.
Source: Data are from the following six datasets: Berkeley Earth, ERA5, GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, JRA-55, NOAAGlobalTemp.


Precipitation


Regions with a marked rainfall deficit included the western part of North and Northwestern Africa, the Horn of Africa, portions of Southern Africa including Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and most of Namibia. In addition, Madagascar, central Sudan, northern Ethiopia and Uganda suffered from below-normal precipitation.

West Africa experienced a normal to early onset of its monsoon rainy season Precipitation was notably higher than normal in Angola and coastal areas north of the Gulf of Guinea.

Sea-level rise: The rate of sea-level rise around Africa was close to or slightly higher than the global mean rate of 3.4 mm per year. The largest rate of sea level rise was observed in the Red Sea, reaching 4.1 mm per year.
Extreme climate events

Floods: At least 4 700 confirmed deaths in Libya were attributed to flooding following the Mediterranean cyclone ‘Storm Daniel’ in September, with 8 000 still missing.

Parts of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia experienced widespread and severe flooding, with more than 350 deaths and 2.4 million displaced people during the April-June rainy season.

Record-breaking tropical Cyclone Freddy caused extensive flooding during the final landfall, both in Mozambique and Malawi, as extremely heavy rain fell (up to 672 mm during the storm in Mozambique). Malawi was especially hard hit with at least 679 deaths reported. A further 165 deaths were reported in Mozambique.

Severe flooding with associated landslides affected central Africa in early May on the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, killing at least 574 people.

The White Nile in South Sudan reached record high levels in February. Basic needs such as food, clean water, and healthcare were difficult to access and there was a near total collapse of local livelihoods.

In September and October, approximately 300,000 people were affected by flooding across 10 countries, with Niger, Benin, Ghana and Nigeria most heavily impacted.

Drought: Parts of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Democratic Republic of Congo experienced severe drought in 2023. Zambia faced its worst drought in the last 40 years, affecting eight out of ten provinces and approximately six million people.


Precipitation anomalies in mm for 2023 (left): Blue areas indicate above-average precipitation, and brown areas indicate below-average precipitation. The reference period is 1991–2020. Precipitation quantiles for 2023 (right): Green areas indicate unusually high precipitation totals (light green indicates the highest 20%, and dark green indicates the highest 10% of the observed totals). Brown areas indicate abnormally low precipitation totals (light brown indicates the lowest 20%, and dark brown indicates the lowest 10% of the observed totals). The reference period is 1991–2020.
Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Germany


Climate-related impacts to agriculture and food security

Climate extremes including floods and droughts had a major impact on food security.

North Africa’s cereal production in 2023 was about 10 percent below the five‑year average estimated at 33 million tons in 2023, similar to the previous year’s already drought‑stricken harvest. Tunisia was worst hit.

Erratic rainfall and the general situation of insecurity kept cereal production at below-average levels in northern parts of the subregion, including Sudan, South Sudan, the Karamoja region in Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and central and western Kenya. In Sudan, seasonal rains were below average and temporally erratic, with prolonged dry spells. The production of sorghum and millet was forecast to decrease by about 25% and 50%, respectively, compared to 2022.


Investment in adaptation and resilience


Climate-resilient development in Africa requires investments in hydrometeorological infrastructure and early warning systems to prepare for escalating high-impact hazardous events. Investments in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Africa are needed to enhance data collection and improve forecasting capabilities in order to strengthen the ability of these institutions to issue early warnings and advisories for extreme events. There is a particular need to invest in cutting-edge technologies and systems to enhance the accuracy and lead time of weather, climate, and hydrological forecasts.


Hazards of greatest concern for the African region. This graph was generated by WMO using the NDCs of 53 countries in Africa based on the active NDCs submitted as of June 2024.

In sub-Saharan Africa, adaptation costs are estimated at US$ 30–50 billion (2–3% of regional gross domestic product (GDP)) each year over the next decade.
Early Warnings for All

An ambitious Early Warnings for All Action Plan for Africa was launched in September 2023. The primary objective is to make sure that timely and accurate information about natural hazards and impending disasters reaches all segments of African society, particularly the most vulnerable. This answers the call of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres that every person worldwide must be protected by early warning systems by 2027. A number of African countries have been identified for priority action in the global initiative.

Between 1970 and 2021, Africa accounted for 35% of weather, climate, and water-related fatalities. Yet only 40% of the African population has access to early warning systems – the lowest rate of any region of the world. This new Early Warnings for All Action Plan for Africa seeks to change that.

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

 

Illinois researchers develop near-infrared spectroscopy models to analyze corn kernels, biomass




University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences
close-up of corn plant 

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University of Illinois researchers developed a global model for corn kernel analysis with NIR spectroscopy.

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Credit: College of ACES




URBANA, Ill. – In the agricultural and food industry, determining the chemical composition of raw materials is important for production efficiency, application, and price. Traditional laboratory testing is time-consuming, complicated, and expensive. New research from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign demonstrates that near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy and machine learning can provide quick, accurate, and cost-effective product analysis.

In two studies, the researchers explore the use of NIR spectroscopy for analyzing characteristics of corn kernels and sorghum biomass.

“NIR spectroscopy has many advantages over traditional methods. It is fast, accurate, and inexpensive. Unlike lab analysis, it does not require the use of chemicals, so it’s more environmentally sustainable. It does not destroy the samples, and you can analyze multiple features at the same time. Once the system is set up, anyone can run it with minimal training,” said Mohammed Kamruzzaman, assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering (ABE), part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences and The Grainger College of Engineering at U. of I. He is a co-author on both papers.

In the first study, the researchers created a global model for corn kernel analysis. Moisture and protein content impact nutritional value, processing efficiency, and price of corn, so the information is crucial for the grain processing industry. 

NIR and other spectroscopic techniques are indirect methods. They measure how a material absorbs or emits light at different wavelengths, then construct a unique spectrum that is translated into product characteristics with machine learning models. Many food and agricultural processing facilities already have NIR equipment, but models need to be trained for specific purposes.

“Corn grown in different locations varies because of soil, environment, management, and other factors. If you train the model with corn from one location, it will not be accurate elsewhere,” Kamruzzaman said.

To address this issue and develop a model that applies in many different locations, the researchers collected corn samples from seven countries – Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Serbia, Tunisia, and the USA. 

“To analyze moisture and protein in the corn kernels, we combined gradient-boosting machines with partial least squares regression. This is a novel approach that yields accurate, reliable results,” said Runyu Zheng, a doctoral student in ABE and lead author on the first study.

While the model is not 100% global, it provides considerable variability in the data and will work in many locations. If needed, it can be updated with additional samples from new locations, Kamruzzaman noted.

In the second study, the researchers focused on sorghum biomass, which can serve as a renewable, cost-effective, and high-yield feedstock for biofuel.

Biomass conversion into biofuels depends on chemical composition, so a rapid and efficient method of sorghum biomass characterization could assist biofuel, breeding, and other relevant industries, the researchers explained.

Using sorghum from the University of Illinois Energy Farm, they were able to accurately and reliably predict moisture, ash, lignin, and other features. 

“We first scanned the samples and obtained NIR spectra as an output. This is like a fingerprint that is unique to different chemical compositions and structural properties. Then we used chemometrics – a mathematical-statistical approach – to develop the prediction models and applications,” said Md Wadud Ahmed, a doctoral student in ABE and lead author on the second paper.

While NIR spectroscopy is not as accurate as lab analysis, it is more than sufficient for practical purposes and can provide fast, efficient screening methods for industrial use, Kamruzzaman said.

“A major advantage of this technology is that you don’t need to remove and destroy products. You can simply take samples for measurement, scan them, and then return them to the production stream. In some cases, you can even scan the samples directly in the production line. NIR spectroscopy provides a lot of flexibility for industrial usage,” he concluded. 

The first paper, “Optimizing feature selection with gradient boosting machines in PLS regression for predicting moisture and protein in multi-country corn kernels via NIR spectroscopy,” is published in Food Chemistry [DOI: 10.1016/j.foodchem.2024.140062].

The second paper, “Rapid and high-throughput determination of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) biomass composition using near infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics,” is published in Biomass and Bioenergy [DOI:10.1016/j.biombioe.2024.107276]. This work was funded by the DOE Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program under Award Number DE-SC0018420).

Md Wadud Ahmed, a doctoral student at the University of Illinois, used NIR spectroscopy and machine learning to analyze the composition of sorghum biomass.

Credit

College of ACES