Matt Wilstein, The Daily Beast•August 7, 2020
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow doesn’t have the best track record when it comes to predictions. And CNN anchor Poppy Harlow was more than ready with the receipts when he came on her show to talk about the coronavirus fallout Friday morning.
Harlow began her interview by asking Kudlow if he and President Donald Trump are “worried” about the slowdown in the recovery.
“I don’t know that there’s a slowdown. These job numbers will go up and down,” Kudlow replied. When Harlow noted that only 1.8 million jobs were added in July compared to 4.8 million in June, he said, “That is true, and it's going to be uneven as it always is.”
Kudlow continued to push the administration’s argument that a $600 weekly federal unemployment benefit has been a “disincentive” for Americans to go back to work. And when Harlow asked for evidence, he pointed to a University of Chicago study that supposedly supports that claim.
“But, Larry, the University of Chicago survey, it doesn’t conclude what you’re arguing,” Harlow said. “I know you don’t want to incentivize people to go to work when it’s a dangerous situation for them to go because the virus is not under control,” she added, noting that she talked to the author of that study who said “it’s a mistake to draw the conclusion as you have been and the White House has been that right now it’s a disincentive to go back to work.”
All Kudlow could say in response was, “We can argue one academic versus another, I think history shows this is probably not sustainable in the long term.”
Asked to explain why he's been wrong about the coronavirus at every turn -- he said the virus was "contained" in February, for instance -- Kudlow takes umbrage with Poppy Harlow for "nitpicking" pic.twitter.com/bNvNP8Qj4r
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 7, 2020
But the most contentious moment of the interview came later when Harlow confronted Kudlow for his rhetoric over the past several months about the pandemic itself.
“I’m wondering why you have consistently downplayed the severity of the pandemic,” she said. “Back on February 25th you said ‘it’s pretty close to airtight.’ February 28th, ‘It’s not going to sink the American economy,’ March 6th, ‘Let’s not overreact, America should stay at work.’ And just on June 12th, ‘There is no emergency, there is no second wave,’ but since June 12th, 45,978 Americans have died from COVID.”
Kudlow attempted to defend his consistent downplaying of the virus’ severity but after a few moments he just resorted to attacking his interviewer.
“I kind of resent your little nitpicking here because I don’t know what that has to do with today’s job numbers,” he said.
“I’m not nitpicking, Larry,” Harlow replied. “I think people listen to you and the president when you say things about the pandemic.”
Ultimately, he may have been chastened enough to acknowledge his own fallibility when it comes to predicting the future. “I think, again, the health guidelines that we have put out are in fact working, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed, maybe prayerfully, that we’ve seen the worst of this extension so we’ll see what happens.”
“We all are, Larry,” Harlow said.
Larry Kudlow Again Discredits Jobless Workers, Gets Slammed For Misreading Study
Mary Papenfuss,
HuffPost•August 7, 2020
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Friday again trotted out the Trump administration story that American workers would like nothing better than to sit at home collecting unemployment benefits. He even cited an academic study to back him up — except he completely “misinterpreted” the research, according to the lead author of the study.
Kudlow repeated on CNN the administration’s attack on continuing the $600 a week extra unemployment benefit for American workers that expired last month. He argued that the money is a disincentive to work, refusing to recognize that the number of available jobs for the newly unemployed has dramatically shrunk amid the COVID-19 crisis, which prompted the stimulus measure in the first place.
“What evidence do you have?” CNN host Poppy Harlan asked Kudlow.
“What evidence?” asked an exasperated Kudlow, who cited a University of Chicago study.
“But, Larry, the University of Chicago survey, it doesn’t conclude what you’re arguing,” Harlow said, adding that she’d talked to the study’s lead author, Peter Ganong, who told her it was a “mistake to draw the conclusion as you have been and the White House has been that right now it’s a disincentive to go back to work.”
Ganong has estimated that without some enhanced unemployment benefits, aggregate spending could fall 4.3% — a steeper economic decline than during the Great Recession.
“Well, look, whoever that chap is, he or she .... we can argue one academic versus another,” Kudlow responded. Harlow reminded him: “You brought up the University of Chicago” study.
She added: “You’ve read the study, right?” Kudlow insisted that he’s “seen the work.” He then named an economist from the University of Chicago who had nothing to do with the study.
HARLOW: What evidence do you have that unemployment benefits are a disincentive for people to go back to work?
KUDLOW: This University of Chicago study
H: I talked to the author of the study last night. It doesn't say that
KUDLOW: Well, we can argue one academic versus another pic.twitter.com/NkgabFntXS
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 7, 2020
Study researcher Ganong responded to the interview on Twitter, noting that Kudlow never cited another study — nor challenged the study’s findings.
Note: Larry did not actually cite another academic either as (a) saying that our study was wrong or (b) saying that we had misinterpreted our own study.
— Peter Ganong (@p_ganong) August 7, 2020
In fact, none of the recent five studies of the enhanced unemployment benefits support the administration’s claims. Evidence shows the extra money has kept many families out of poverty during the COVID-19 crisis and created a stimulus to the economy as people spend the much-needed funds.
The University of Chicago study in May found that in some cases workers were collecting more in enhanced unemployment benefits than they had been earning. But payments likely won’t create a disincentive to work “until the public health threat diminishes and businesses again look to hire,” the study noted.
When Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin earlier this month claimed the study found that enhance benefits discouraged work, Ganong instantly tweeted: “That is not what we find.”
A Yale study released early this month concluded that there is “no evidence” that enhanced unemployment benefits have decreased employment. People who were collecting enhanced benefits actually resumed working at a similar and even quicker rate than others who were not eligible for the extra aid once work was available, according to the study, “Employment Effects of Unemployment Insurance Generosity During the Pandemic.”
Ganong praised Harlow on Friday for taking the time to learn the facts of the study and to explain to Kudlow how he had “misinterpreted” the findings.
👏👏👏 for @PoppyHarlowCNN
Many journalists would have turned our UI replacement rates work into a he-said, she-said story.
She took the time to reach out, understand how our study was misinterpreted, and explain that to Larry Kudlow. https://t.co/oFdWZMhih1
— Peter Ganong (@p_ganong) August 7, 2020
Harlow also reminded Kudlow that American workers take pride in their work.
She then called Kudlow out for all the times he has been wrong about the economy and the pandemic, including in February when he declared COVID-19 containment was “pretty close to airtight.”
Kudlow responded: “I kind of resent your little nitpicking here.”
Asked to explain why he's been wrong about the coronavirus at every turn -- he said the virus was "contained" in February, for instance -- Kudlow takes umbrage with Poppy Harlow for "nitpicking" pic.twitter.com/bNvNP8Qj4r
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 7, 2020
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