Filip De Mott
Sat, November 2, 2024
Anton Petrus/Getty Images
US crude production hit a new all-time monthly high in August.
This complicates things for OPEC+, which was planning to start increasing output in December.
Oil is down 20% from April highs, causing some exporters to be cautious about how much they're pumping.
The US is pumping a record amount of oil. But that may not be welcome news to other crude-producing nations.
Domestic output reached 13.4 million barrels a day in August, eclipsing all previous monthly records. According to US Energy Information Administration data, firms in Texas and New Mexico led the surge.
That level of production puts the US at odds with the plans of other oil-producing nations. OPEC+, an alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has said it plans to begin in December a sequence of monthly output increases. But given the decline in the price of crude oil — down 20% from an April high — continued record production from the US, and weakening demand, oil traders believe OPEC+ will delay its program for a second time.
It's the culmination of a multi-year period that saw OPEC+ members cut production to support higher market prices, only to be undercut by expanding production from non-OPEC exporters.
Looking into 2025, analysts speculate that global demand will continue sliding, especially given China's decelerating oil consumption. That's one reason the global oil surplus could swell to 1.2 million barrels per day next year, according to JPMorgan. Otherwise, expanding outflows from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada will also play a part.
"OPEC+ increasingly appears to be searching for El Dorado: an oil market where demand is strong enough that it can increase output and prices stay above $80 per barrel," wrote Bill Weatherburn, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. "We suspect that this won't be found in 2025 either as China's demand growth will remain soft and more oil supply from non-OPEC+ producers will enter the market."
US crude production hit a new all-time monthly high in August.
This complicates things for OPEC+, which was planning to start increasing output in December.
Oil is down 20% from April highs, causing some exporters to be cautious about how much they're pumping.
The US is pumping a record amount of oil. But that may not be welcome news to other crude-producing nations.
Domestic output reached 13.4 million barrels a day in August, eclipsing all previous monthly records. According to US Energy Information Administration data, firms in Texas and New Mexico led the surge.
That level of production puts the US at odds with the plans of other oil-producing nations. OPEC+, an alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has said it plans to begin in December a sequence of monthly output increases. But given the decline in the price of crude oil — down 20% from an April high — continued record production from the US, and weakening demand, oil traders believe OPEC+ will delay its program for a second time.
It's the culmination of a multi-year period that saw OPEC+ members cut production to support higher market prices, only to be undercut by expanding production from non-OPEC exporters.
Looking into 2025, analysts speculate that global demand will continue sliding, especially given China's decelerating oil consumption. That's one reason the global oil surplus could swell to 1.2 million barrels per day next year, according to JPMorgan. Otherwise, expanding outflows from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada will also play a part.
"OPEC+ increasingly appears to be searching for El Dorado: an oil market where demand is strong enough that it can increase output and prices stay above $80 per barrel," wrote Bill Weatherburn, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. "We suspect that this won't be found in 2025 either as China's demand growth will remain soft and more oil supply from non-OPEC+ producers will enter the market."
Venezuela's oil exports hit a 4-year peak on higher output, sales to US, India
Oilfield workers hold a flag with the corporate logo of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA near Cabrutica at the state of Anzoategui ·
Fri, November 1, 2024
By Marianna Parraga and Mircely Guanipa
HOUSTON/MARACAY (Reuters) - Venezuela's oil exports rose to a four-year high, approaching 950,000 barrels per day in October, boosted by growing crude output and more sales to India and the United States, according to shipping data and documents from state firm PDVSA.
The increase happened despite a large storage terminal fire last month, tighter U.S. sanctions since June and the arrest of the country's former oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, and former PDVSA executives over corruption allegations.
A bounce in crude production, mainly due to the stabilization of processing operations at Venezuela's largest oil region, the Orinoco Belt, has allowed the recovery of heavy crude inventories, the PDVSA documents showed.
In total, PDVSA and its joint ventures exported an average of 947,387 bpd of crude and fuel, 21% over the previous month and the highest monthly figure since early 2020, according to the data, based on tanker movements.
The South American country, which has remained under U.S. sanctions since 2019, also exported 314,500 metric tons of oil byproducts and petrochemicals, slightly more than the 267,000 tons of September.
Crude shipments by Chevron to the United States reached a peak of 280,000 bpd, the highest since the U.S. producer resumed exports of Venezuela's heavy grades early last year. Spanish producer Repsol also exported Venezuelan oil cargoes to the U.S. and Spain last month.
PDVSA increased exports to India, which used to be a top market before the sanctions, sending three cargoes, or about 141,000 bpd, last month, the data showed.
Crude deliveries to the U.S., Europe and India are authorized under U.S. licenses to some PDVSA's joint venture partners and customers, including Chevron, Repsol, Eni, Maurel & Prom, and Reliance Industries.
However, China remained the main destination of Venezuela's oil exports in October with 385,300 bpd shipped to the world's top oil importer directly and indirectly. Exports to China had been higher in September, when they averaged some 451,500 bpd.
Venezuela's exports to political ally Cuba, which is struggling to overcome an acute energy crisis, slightly rose to 28,000 bpd, from 22,000 bpd in September.
Venezuela also saw an increase in fuel imports to 81,000 bpd, from 67,000 bpd the previous month, according to the data.
(Reporting by Marianna Parraga in Houston and Mircely Guanipa in Maracay, Venezuela; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
By Marianna Parraga and Mircely Guanipa
HOUSTON/MARACAY (Reuters) - Venezuela's oil exports rose to a four-year high, approaching 950,000 barrels per day in October, boosted by growing crude output and more sales to India and the United States, according to shipping data and documents from state firm PDVSA.
The increase happened despite a large storage terminal fire last month, tighter U.S. sanctions since June and the arrest of the country's former oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, and former PDVSA executives over corruption allegations.
A bounce in crude production, mainly due to the stabilization of processing operations at Venezuela's largest oil region, the Orinoco Belt, has allowed the recovery of heavy crude inventories, the PDVSA documents showed.
In total, PDVSA and its joint ventures exported an average of 947,387 bpd of crude and fuel, 21% over the previous month and the highest monthly figure since early 2020, according to the data, based on tanker movements.
The South American country, which has remained under U.S. sanctions since 2019, also exported 314,500 metric tons of oil byproducts and petrochemicals, slightly more than the 267,000 tons of September.
Crude shipments by Chevron to the United States reached a peak of 280,000 bpd, the highest since the U.S. producer resumed exports of Venezuela's heavy grades early last year. Spanish producer Repsol also exported Venezuelan oil cargoes to the U.S. and Spain last month.
PDVSA increased exports to India, which used to be a top market before the sanctions, sending three cargoes, or about 141,000 bpd, last month, the data showed.
Crude deliveries to the U.S., Europe and India are authorized under U.S. licenses to some PDVSA's joint venture partners and customers, including Chevron, Repsol, Eni, Maurel & Prom, and Reliance Industries.
However, China remained the main destination of Venezuela's oil exports in October with 385,300 bpd shipped to the world's top oil importer directly and indirectly. Exports to China had been higher in September, when they averaged some 451,500 bpd.
Venezuela's exports to political ally Cuba, which is struggling to overcome an acute energy crisis, slightly rose to 28,000 bpd, from 22,000 bpd in September.
Venezuela also saw an increase in fuel imports to 81,000 bpd, from 67,000 bpd the previous month, according to the data.
(Reporting by Marianna Parraga in Houston and Mircely Guanipa in Maracay, Venezuela; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
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