The Reason For Alberta's Deficit-Big Oil

Just like back in the nineties when Alberta gave big tax breaks to big oil, we went into a deficit. And Deja Vu if it didn't happen again.

Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) paints a picture of declining production and royalties from Alberta's natural gas industry for the rest of the decade, but sharply rising oilsands royalties.

Royalties from natural gas and the oilsands totalled more than $8.8 billion in 2009, but just over $4.6 billion in 2010 -a big cause of the provincial deficit.

"The government is running a province which assumes they will take in $6 billion to $8 billion a year, and this is not happening," CERI CEO Peter Howard said.

Premier Ed Stelmach has said the province aims to balance its budget by 2013. CERI's estimates suggest that will be a challenge if they are depending on royalties.

The institute estimates Alberta will be back to 2009 royalty levels by about 2016, when oilsands royalties will be more than $7.2 billion, with just $1.1 billion coming from natural gas.

Yep Big Oil gets Royalty breaks that resulted in the deficit and schools get cuts!

Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach says school boards may have to "hold some of their labour costs low" in coming years as the province looks to rebuild its coffers, but critics blame the Tory government for looming teacher layoffs.

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Provincial+education+funding+falls+short/4494419/story.html#ixzz1HcKHRDNU

Steady Eddie Runs Away

Alberta's farmer CEO Ed Stelmach has no plan to deal with economic meltdown so what does he do instead skips the first ministers meeting for an all expenses paid junket to Europe. Guess he missed the news that this is a global crisis and that Europe ain't open for business its businesses are collapsing. And typically the Tired Old Tories have no plan. Instead they put their heads in the sand and hope no-one notices their arses are in the air.


Alta. premier to skip first ministers' meeting
Trish Audette , Canwest News ServicePublished: Monday, November 03, 2008
EDMONTON - Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach is skipping national economic discussions in Ottawa next week in favour of going to Europe on a trade mission.
Stelmach explained Monday that his presence at the first ministers' meeting, hosted by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, is unnecessary. The premier said organizers rejected having him connect to the Ottawa meeting by phone, so Alberta is sending a senior cabinet minister.
"We'll clearly identify the areas that we're concerned about," said Stelmach. "One of them is income trusts and another is where they cancelled all of the accelerated capital cost allowances for the oil and gas industry."

Premier needs to deliver plan that will restore hope
The premier has been disappointingly mum on his plans to restore confidence . . .
Danielle Smith, For The Calgary HeraldPublished: Tuesday, November 04, 2008
On Monday, the finance ministers met to talk about the next steps the federal government will take to address the pending economic crisis. What Premier Ed Stelmach now needs to do is set a date to provide an economic update of his own, so Albertans know what he intends to do about it.
The premier has been disappointingly mum on his plans to restore confidence among consumers and business owners. Meanwhile, Alberta is not likely to avoid the effects of what appears to be the beginning of a global economic slowdown.
Business confidence is at the lowest levels we've seen in nearly two decades.
For the last four weeks, starting on Oct. 6, CFIB has surveyed members on a weekly basis to get their views on how they expect the economy to perform over the next 12 months. The results are sobering.
Each week the small business outlook has looked a little dimmer, as massive shifts in commodity prices and the shrinking availability of credit disrupt investment plans. For the first time, the index is now virtually equivalent to its previous record low -- found in mid-1990 -- a time that coincided with a protracted recession.
For the last four weeks, starting on Oct. 6, CFIB has surveyed members on a weekly basis to get their views on how they expect the economy to perform over the next 12 months. The results are sobering.
Each week the small business outlook has looked a little dimmer, as massive shifts in commodity prices and the shrinking availability of credit disrupt investment plans. For the first time, the index is now virtually equivalent to its previous record low -- found in mid-1990 -- a time that coincided with a protracted recession.
But the most important question Taft levelled, which still appears to have no clear answer, is: "As the world economy staggers to a halt, what is this government's plan to protect the wealth and jobs of Albertans?"
Stelmach responded that he would dip into the $7.7 billion stability fund if he needed to, but that doesn't address the core problem. The core problem is the Alberta government spends too much.
This year, the province increased operating spending by 9.7 per cent and capital spending by 22 per cent.
Not long after the budget was delivered, the province threw out its surplus management strategy (which was supposed to dedicate one-third of surpluses to infrastructure, one-third to infrastructure maintenance, and one-third to savings) and announced it would spend an additional $4 billion, on carbon sequestration and public transit.


Tories 'handing' U.S. oilsands upgrading jobs
Premier blames federal government
Renata D'Aliesio, Calgary HeraldPublished: Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Opposition leaders accused Alberta's premier on Monday of standing idly by as the United States siphons oilsands upgrading jobs from the province.
In question period, Liberal boss Kevin Taft seized on new industry warnings that Alberta is on track to upgrade only half of its bitumen production, far short of Premier Ed Stelmach's goal of 75 per cent.
Taft listed a litany of American upgrader projects designed to process the province's tar-like bitumen, including plans slated for Indiana, Minnesota and Montana.
He said the Alberta government should be worried that $30 billion worth of oilsands projects, including upgraders and processing plants, has been shelved due to the global financial turmoil.
"This government is on the brink of handing control of Alberta's wealth to the United States," Taft charged.


Unintended consequences: discounted Alberta land
Crescent Point says royalties deflated prices
Dan Healing, Calgary HeraldPublished: Saturday, October 25, 2008
It's a bold investment strategy tinged with more than a little irony -- Calgary oil executive Scott Saxberg, a vocal opponent of higher Alberta oil royalties unveiled a year ago this week, says his Saskatchewan-focused company is going to aggressively bid for land rights in this province.
"We are now looking at lands in Alberta because we believe, based on the way royalty rules are, Alberta is basically giving away their land for free," the president and chief executive of Crescent Point Energy Trust told the Herald in an interview this week.



SEE

The Economist On Alberta's Fair Share
Still not getting our due
Ed's Politics Of Fear
Nationalize The Oil Patch
Royalties Pay For Jobs

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Pallin's Pipeline

Sarah Pallin's American nativist politics ends when it comes to oil. The Alaskan Govenor is in the pocket of one of Canada's oldest and leading Pipeline companies; TransCanada Pipelines. But shhhh don't tell anyone. Her Drill Baby Drill rhetoric belies the fact that you can drill all you want in Alaska but the point is to get the oil and gas to a refinery. And Alaska for all its ground assets does not have refinering capacity, so that oil and gas has to get shipped south. And who will do the shipping? TransCanada Pipelines, tying Alaska into its Keystone pipeline project.

The controversial pipeline will ship bitumen from the Tarsands south to the Gulf Coast for refining. In Alberta, and in fact across Canada, the pipeline is controversial for several reasons, one is it runs through disputed Lubicon Cree land, and secondly it shows that we remain hewers of coal and drawers of oil, rather than having true energy independence by doing secondary and tertiary production; refining here. Unlike Alaska, Alberta has refineries, and refining capacity.But thanks to TransCanada's cozy relationship to the Stelmach regime, like its cozy relationship with Pallin, we and the Alaskans get screwed.

During the election Harper announced that if elected he would restrict exports of bitumen, the Stelmach regime remained uncharacteristically silent over the issue. Usually Ottawa intrusion into Alberta's energy patch would elicit a hue and cry of outrage with the usual rantings about the NEP. However Harpers move was to assure Americans that Canada has continues to view them as the primary preferred customer for our oil.

With the current fiscal meltdown most of the refining expansion planned for Upgrader Alley in Alberta are now on hold which gives carte blanche to TransCanada to ship our oil and jobs south . As Ross Perot once said; can you hear that giant sucking sound as Alberta and Alaska oil jobs go south?

As Ms. Palin takes to the road to campaign with Mr. McCain, invoking the pipeline as a major victory, some Alaska lawmakers who initially endorsed her plan now believe it was a mistake. State Senator Bert Stedman, a Republican who is co-chairman of the finance committee, said that in its contract with the chosen developer, TransCanada, the state bargained away too much leverage with little guarantee of success.

Of the five companies that eventually bid, Ms. Palin’s administration chose TransCanada Pipelines, which operates 36,500 miles of pipeline across North America. TransCanada had previously tried to negotiate a pipeline deal with the Murkowski administration, but was sidelined by the governor in favor of the big oil companies, some officials who were involved in the talks said. That contributed to the rift that led to the departures of Mr. Irwin, Ms. Rutherford and five others from the state Department of Natural Resources.
The proposal that TransCanada negotiated with the Murkowski administration was structured differently from the current one and had no provision for a $500 million state subsidy, said two people who reviewed it and who spoke on condition of anonymity because the proposal remains confidential.
Of the Palin aides familiar with TransCanada from those earlier negotiations, Ms. Rutherford had an unusually close connection. For 10 months in 2003, she was a partner in a consulting and lobbying firm whose clients included Foothills Pipe Lines Ltd., a subsidiary of TransCanada.
Ms. Rutherford said in an interview that after TransCanada submitted its pipeline proposal to the Palin administration, she and the governor never discussed whether her role on the team might be viewed as improper or give the appearance of a conflict of interest.
Ms. Rutherford, who said she had not lobbied for Foothills but had done research and analysis, stated that she was not one of the pipeline team members who recommended a developer to Ms. Palin. That was done by Mr. Irwin and Patrick S. Galvin, the commissioner of the Department of Revenue, she said.

TransCanada is already building the $5.2-billion Keystone pipeline, which will carry 590,000 barrels a day from Hardisty, Alta., to refinery hubs in Illinois and Oklahoma from 2009. The expansion will take an extra 500,000 barrels a day to refineries in Houston and Port Arthur, Tex.
As well as the confirmed supplies and the possible construction delay, TransCanada said it has increased its stake in Keystone and the expansion as its partner, ConocoPhillips Corp. of Houston, has reduced its share from 50 per cent to 20.1 per cent. TransCanada now has 79.9 per cent of the pipeline, although shippers will have an option to take a 15-per-cent stake.
ConocoPhillips spokesman Bill Graham said the company is still committed to Keystone, and will be a major shipper on the pipeline, but he wouldn't comment on why the company had reduced its interest.

Currently, Alberta exports 500,000 barrels of bitumen daily to the U.S., about 40 per cent of total production of the tar-like substance from the oilsands. That will rise to one million barrels a day by 2010 when two new pipelines, the Alberta Clipper and Keystone pipelines, take bitumen to Texas and Illinois respectively.
Bitumen must be upgraded into heavy oil before it can be sent to refineries to be made into gasoline and other fuels.
Stringham disputed the suggestion that oil companies are sending bitumen south for upgrading to avoid Canada's greenhouse gas emission standards, which come into effect in 2010.
Everyone expects the U.S will have some similar standards soon, he says.
Besides, the decision on where to build an upgrader for bitumen is based on economics, not the environment, says Stringham. In some ways, Alberta is a preferred place to build an upgrader, given the low taxes and stable political environment, though high labour costs are a problem these days.

But building bitumen upgraders isn't easy in the Edmonton region's upgrader alley.
Last month, the BA Heartland upgrader, partly completed near Fort Saskatchewan, was suddenly mothballed. The credit crisis in the U.S. was the major reason cited by the company for closing down the project at this time.
The very same day, however, ConocoPhillips and Calgary-based Encana began work in the U.S. on a $3.6-billion refinery retrofit to handle Alberta bitumen flowing to Illinois.

No wonder, then, that Harper's policy to keep the bitumen here was hailed as good news in the Fort Saskatchewan area where there are plans for a dozen upgraders. "Our group feels it's a very progressive move," said Neil Shelly, executive director of Alberta's Heartland Industrial area.
"It levels the playing field for us because we will be capturing carbon dioxide at the plants in this area, and the U.S. does not have those requirements that entail an additional cost." Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour, agrees those upgrading jobs should stay in Canada.
But he doesn't hold out much hope that Harper's bitumen policy will actually reduce the flow of jobs or bitumen down the pipeline.
In fact, McGowan suggests that Harper is sending a reassuring message across the border that energy hungry America will remain Canada's preferred customer and that China, with its lower environmental standards, will be on the prohibited list.
Even if the Democrats win the U.S. election, they too will want a continental energy policy, as that's the only way to reduce U.S. dependence on Venezuelan and Middle East oil.
"He's sending a signal to Washington and Houston that if he is prime minister, Canada will continue the continental energy system," says McGowan "It's the worst kind of election promise. ... He's able to give the impression he was doing something to protect jobs, without taking concrete action.
"What this really does is tie the hands of Alberta producers from looking for other customers." Pipeline builder Enbridge Inc. is one of the few companies going after those new customers in China and Southeast Asia. It's the biggest shipper of bitumen to the U.S and is currently building a $4.2-billion pipeline to the Pacific Coast, dubbed the Northern Gateway, initially to serve China.

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False Advertising

Yeah made a commitment to be delivered in 2009,or 2010 or maybe 2011....




As for a plan they have no plan...except to get re-elected...

Stelmach's sophomore-year throne speech will try to further convince voters he has a clear plan, contrary to the ominous whispers of "no plan" in union-funded ads that have run on TV for weeks.

The premier whispered back, "We have a plan" in a news conference last week, and now Kwong will reiterate that message on his behalf.

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Still not getting our due

The market wonks and pundits are all a flutter about $100 oil. It hit that price last week in two, count em two, speculative deals amongst hundreds in the commodity markets. The price then dropped to between 97 and 99 dollars. This was declared a decline, with much brow wiping.

However the price of oil before last week was $95 at the end of 2007. Again a fact that seemed to be glossed over in the news about hundred buck oil. It hovered between $72 and $80 for most of last year. Then is shot up at the end of the year. Thanks to speculation not real market conditions of supply and demand. Today it is now in the high nineties.

Oil prices rose at a record rate last year a 60% hike . And they will continue to go up. It is one of the conditions of a Peak Oil marketplace.

Which means that Albertans are still getting short changed on our royalties. Since Stelmach's Royalty regime will not come into effect until 2009 and as an uncensored Alberta Energy Report reveals we have been short changed even under the existing royalty scheme.

Oil prices in 2007 rose 57% and wholesale gasoline prices climbed at a similar rate

Oil prices breached a record $100 a barrel several times last week, as falling inventories, geopolitical tensions, strong demand from developing countries and a weak dollar pushed futures above the psychologically important mark.

David Pumphrey Deputy Director, Energy, Center for Strategic and International Studies

"Fundamentals are still quite strong, and would support oil prices in the $90 to $100 range, but not much higher. The wild card is the financial markets."

Daniel Yergin Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates

"Prices won't hover around $100 unless some bad things happen in oil-producing countries. Last year, oil averaged $72

Oil, gas price forecasts
Raymond James analysts are predicting that crude prices will again exceed Wall Street's consensus in 2008. "The global oil markets must push oil prices high enough to slow global oil demand growth in a supply-constrained market," they said. Accordingly, Raymond James raised its forecast of crude prices to an average $90/bbl in 2008, up from a previous estimate of $80/bbl "to reflect a tightening, supply-constrained oil market." Analysts said, "Additionally, we are raising our 2009 forecast from $85/bbl to $100/bbl due to our belief that additional oil supplies will be even harder to find in 2009 and beyond."

Raymond James analysts noted continued strong growth in domestic gas production—"primarily Barnett shale and Rockies driven"—and increased LNG imports should again push US gas storage levels to record highs in 2008. Therefore, they said, "We believe 2008 gas prices will be even weaker than originally anticipated and are revising our 2008 US gas price forecast down from $7/Mcf to an average of $6.50/Mcf for the full year, the lowest since 2004. We are also initiating a 2009 price forecast of $7/Mcf. While US gas prices could remain relatively weak through 2009, the build-out of global gas infrastructure should eventually drive global gas prices closer to BTU parity (6:1 price ratio) over the next 5 years."

Censored report shows gov't was told in 2006 Alta. missing out on oil billions

EDMONTON - Alberta Energy told the provincial government in 2004 that the province was missing out on billions of dollars in resource revenue, newly released documents show.

In a 2006 report, the department estimated that since royalty rates were capped at certain price levels, Alberta had lost between $1.3 billion and $2.8 billion in "uncaptured economic rent" for natural gas alone in 2003 and 2004, or between $700 million and $1.4 billion a year.

The department's cross-commodity resource valuation team called on the government to "increase conventional oil and gas royalties to restore Alberta's fair share at high prices."

Another section of the report, comparing Alberta with eight U.S. oil-producing states, showed the province ranked lowest in the percentage it took in royalties and taxes.

Premier Ed Stelmach announced last fall that he was hiking royalties, but not until 2009 and not to the extent called for by the royalty review panel headed by Bill Hunter.

In the documents, information about oilpatch returns against reinvestment between 1990 and 2003 show that despite higher returns for companies and record drilling, the ratio of reinvestment has declined. The words "higher returns, record drilling, declining reinvestment" were stricken from documents previously released to The Journal.

Alberta's NDP joined in the fray Friday by attacking Stelmach's new royalty framework as a massive giveaway to oil companies.

"When oil hits $100, this new royalty framework will forgo tens of millions of dollars a day compared to Alaska," NDP Leader Brian Mason said.

"When the time comes that oil regularly trades at $100, the Tory royalty system will cost Albertans over $4 billion a year."

Stelmach's oil royalty plan called inferior to Alaska's

Premier Ed Stelmach's new oil royalty revenue scheme will generate chump change compared to the system used in Alaska, says Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason.

"The two areas face similar challenges in terms of costly operations to extract crude oil and have similar right-leaning governments, yet Alaska has managed to come up with a system that generates far more money from oil than we ever could under the new royalty regime," he said yesterday.

By Mason's math, Albertans are foregoing $4.3 billion in extra oil revenue by not charging higher royalty percentages and capitalizing on $100 per barrel oil prices.

Mason said under the new royalty regime, Alberta will take in $7.4 billion, but that could jump to $11.8 billion if Alberta took a bigger piece of the pie.

"Alaska takes $42.24 on each barrel of $100 oil and the sky didn't fall as Big Oil warned us it would in Alberta just a few months ago.

"Alberta takes just $26.51 from a barrel of $100 oil. There is a huge gap there and a lot of room for us to earn more money. The price of a barrel of oil isn't going down much any time soon. As far as I can tell, the world only has so much of it to go around."

SEE

The Economist On Alberta's Fair Share


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The Economist On Alberta's Fair Share

The Economist on Ed Stelmach's Royalty sell out. Yep folks his approach may have been balanced for the whiners in Calgary Petro Towers, but when it comes to the market place we are still getting shortchanged.

Nov 6th 2007
From Economist.com

OIL prices seem to hit a new peak each week. This is good news for governments which take a cut of revenues. And coffers will swell further as companies explore new sources of oil that had previously been too pricey to extract, such as oil sands in Alberta, Canada. The province's government recently announced an increase in royalties from 47% to 55% of net revenues in 2010. But this is still a relatively small share compared with many countries. The tax man in Norway, Russia and Libya takes over 70% of revenues.

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Mason Forces Royalty Debate

Slick Eddie had hoped his TV show and Royalty announcement would have avoided any discussion of his royalty plan in the fall sitting of the Legislature which kicked off yesterday.

The Stelmach government doesn't want to discuss royalties or homelessness. Rather they want to talk about busting speeders and smokers. The best laid plan of mice and Tired Old Tories.....And it took the NDP to force the debate.

The legislature will try to debate 26 bills during the month-long session, but royalties took centre stage on the opening day despite the fact no legislation is being introduced on that issue.

NDP Forces Emergency Debate On Energy Royalties

Nov, 05 2007 - 4:20 PM

CALGARY/AM770CHQR - The fall sitting of the Alberta Legislature got off to a raucous start Monday afternoon, as oil and gas royalties became a hot topic during question period.
NDP leader Brian Mason was also successful in forcing an emergency debate on the issue, by getting a Standing Order approved.

Premier Ed Stelmach told the legislature he can't see how the province was shortchanged because of the tremendous prosperity Albertans have enjoyed in recent years. But the NDP and Liberals disagree.

"The auditor general said this minister had access to information showing that their royalties could be raised without hurting the industry and he denied it in this house," Mason said. "How can you condone that, Mr. Premier, why don't you do the right thing and fire that minister?"

Knight and Stelmach largely dodged questions about their roles in past royalty reviews, preferring instead to focus on the government's overall performance.

Knight took issue with opposition claims that the province missed out on billions of dollars in royalties. "There are no missing billions. Those dollars remained in the province of Alberta, were invested, were a magnet for additional dollars," Knight said. "The royalty structure in the province of Alberta is a policy set by the government. The policy is not set by reports that are developed both internally and externally and are given to any minister at any point in time."

Funny that's not what the Auditor General or the Royalty Review Committee said. They said Knight and his Department had NOT collected billions in royalties.

Last month, Auditor General Fred Dunn said the Tory government knew at least three years ago that it was losing royalties from energy projects in the province.

He slammed former energy ministers and their staff for identifying, but not collecting, about $1 billion per year in fees owed by oil and gas companies.

In light of those findings, the NDP hounded the Tories Monday over why the current energy minister was unaware of what his predecessors knew about the province's royalties.

"What I'm saying is there is not billions of dollars missing any place," Energy Minister Mel Knight said. "There is no requirement for me to get a briefing from any previous energy minister in respect to the royalty structure."

SEE:

Mason Hits The Bricks


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Presto Shills For Big Oil

Presto Manning was on CTV Question Period this morning shilling for Big Oil and whining about the Alberta Royalty compromise produced by Eddie Stelmach.

CTV's Question Period: Preston Manning, Fmr. Reform Party leader

Presto was following up on criticisms he made earlier this week in a comment piece he wrote in one of them 'damn eastern newspapers'; the Globe and Mail, aka Canada's National newspaper. Preston Manning: The Stelmach royalty uncertainty principle Which of course is owned by the same folks who own CTV.

Presto has upset folks even on the right like Neil Waugh at the Edmonton Sun. Whose side is Presto on?

Presto engaged in some political prestidigitations on Question Period about how this will hurt Eddie in the polls when the election comes. And as usual with the rose coloured glasses of the Calgary right wing he predicted that it won't benefit the Liberals or NDP or even the would be right wing rump parties, but rather it would be because conservatives will stay home.

Manning added it's becoming increasingly unlikely that Stelmach and the Conservatives will win another election unless the "government demonstrates a capacity it hasn't shown thus far."

"I don't see votes going to the Liberals or the NDP, I think their biggest danger is another 150,000 people staying home who voted Conservative the last time," he said.

Well at least they have homes. It's not just the royalty deal that is driving a stake in the heart of the Tired Old Tories it's stories like this Halloween surprise.

Drastic rent increases at a Fort McMurray complex are renewing calls for rent control.

"The province needs to step in. Every other province has some form of rent control," said Rob Picard, angered by his skyrocketing rent.

On Halloween night, Picard was spooked by an 86% increase to his rent. The three-month notice means the rent on his two-bedroom 700-square-foot apartment in the River Park Glens, also known as the Syncrude Towers, is jumping from $1,425 per month to $2,650.

"I work for Suncor. I make good money, but I can't afford this. The illusion that this is Fort McMurray and everybody can afford this is just wrong," said the heavy equipment operator.

He's not the only one complaining.

Gunner Antos has a two-bedroom apartment in the same building and will see his rent go from $1,500 a month to $2,700. Those prices could even drive highly paid workers away.

"They're crying for workers and they're raping us," said Antos.

"You've got people who have jobs living in tent cities. They have people with jobs living in the bush."

Service Alberta spokesman Eoin Kenny said the government is not looking at rent controls at this time.

The apartment building has about 500 units, although some are individually owned.

"With this type of hit, even though I work for Syncrude, I may be forced to take a room this late in life," said Gerald Morrison, who has lived at the complex for more than 20 years.

"I always thought Fort McMurray was fair and square, but they're gouging now."

The landlords left a note on apartment doors Wednesday afternoon saying the change will be effective Feb. 1.

Mr. Morrison said his three-bedroom apartment is going from $1,800 a month to $2,950 - without utilities - despite a leaky roof, carpenter ants and unpainted walls. Two years ago, his rent went from $1,100 to $1,500, and then to $1,800 last February.

David Campkin said the one-bedroom apartment he and his wife share rose to $2,250 from $1,450. He said the unit's condition is "absolutely appalling" with a carpetless concrete floor and none of the promised security.

The provincial Residential Tenancies Act passed in April requires landlords to give tenants three months' notice before raising rent once a year. River Park Glen appears to have met the conditions.

There is no ceiling on rent increases in Alberta, where a sizzling economy is attracting workers from outside the province and making affordable housing scarce. A government-appointed committee suggested rent controls to Premier Ed Stelmach earlier this year, but he rejected the recommendation.

Lets do some quick math shall we. 500 units X $1500=$750,000. Rolling in the dough while not providing tenants with repairs. Can you say high rise slum lord.

Another whiner from Alberta is Harpers pal the ex-CEO of Encana, Gwyn Morgan
who also published a comment attacking the royalty compromise in that same eastern rag. The irony is that populism was what got Presto elected and made the Reform/Alliance/Conservative party possible. And Gwyn makes the same case that Presto does in attacking Farmer Ed.

Populism tramples principle in Alberta

GWYN MORGAN

From Monday's Globe and Mail
October 29, 2007 at 6:30 AM EST

Experience has taught me that populist politics are seldom principled. It's not that populists don't want to do what's right and best; it's just that if a choice has to be made as to which has priority, what is popular wins.

The second matter of principle Mr. Stelmach's government has violated is reneging on oil sands royalty commitments under which capital has already been invested. Except in the case of Syncrude and Suncor, the money was invested without a contract binding the government to honour the terms.

Nonetheless, investors rightly see this unilateral change as a clear case of doing what is popular rather than what is right. And in terms of doing what is best, the damage to Alberta's reputation certainly illustrates the wrong choice.

Industry is still in shock, but the computer models used to compare before and after investment feasibility are grinding away. Companies with investment opportunities outside Alberta will be looking at them a lot closer. The natural gas drilling and development service sector was already suffering, so expect an even worse downturn. New project decisions in the oil sands will have to factor a much higher government take into a business already replete with risk.

Mr. Stelmach states: "I'm confident we've made the right decisions for today and for Alberta's future."

As for me, I continue to believe that populist politics are seldom principled.

Populism is what kept Ralph in power for years. Of course in Ralph's case that was populism that benefited the oil boys in Calgary. So that was principled.



SEE:

Income Trusts; Predatory Capitalism

Stelmach's Royalty Give Away

Made In Calgary Homeless Plan

The Sky Is Not Falling

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Income Trusts; Predatory Capitalism

Predatory capitalism comes to the oil patch through this Income Trust merger. Another consequence of the Harpocrites Halloween surprise last year. And clearly farmer Ed's Royalty compromise has not impacted these guys.

Merger creates oil patch giant
Canada's newest energy powerhouse, forged yesterday by the proposed merger of Penn West Energy Trust and Canetic Resources Trust, is poised to challenge the oil patch's biggest players as it seeks even more aggressive expansion through acquisitions and new projects.

The new entity will be comfortably the country's largest oil and gas trust, with market value of around $15-billion and production of more than 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. It will have the size to compete with some of the oil patch's biggest names, said executives of both companies.

The new company will not only be a leader in Canadian conventional light oil production, but its larger size will make it easier to access debt markets to fund significant developments in unconventional gas, enhanced oil recovery and even Alberta's oil sands, a region in which major projects have been the preserve of only the largest and most well-financed firms.

In addition, the company - which will operate under the Penn West banner for now, but may be rebranded in the future - is now buttressed against any potential foreign takeover and positioned to expand aggressively by taking over other trusts in Canada as well as assets in the U.S., said Penn West chief executive officer Bill Andrew. Last year's federal decision to make income trusts pay corporate tax from 2011 is perceived as having left such firms as more susceptible to domestic or foreign buyouts.

The friendly $3.6-billion cash and paper deal, which came together in a series of confidential meetings held in motels outside of Calgary over a three-week period, was facilitated in part by Calgary-based lawyer John Brussa, one of the original architects of Canada's income tax structure.

Income Trusts generate vast pools of capital which they can use to buy up other companies while retaining their ability to pay out dividends to coupon cutters.Income Trusts began in the oil patch in Alberta before becoming popular across Canada.

They are a product of the Alberta stock exchange lack of regulation and the Klein governments deregulation revolution. They avoid paying taxes thus allowing for higher returns to investors. They are a tax avoidance scheme for owners. And they still will generate value for their owners despite Flaherty's tax scheme which only comes into effect in 2011.

That will impact the coupon cutters far more than the companies real owners, the Class A shareholders and company investment managers. And by then the majority of Flaherty's corporate tax cuts will be in place enabling this trust to transform itself into a corporation again if it is a fiscal advantage.

In practical life we find not only competition, monopoly and the antagonism between them, but also the synthesis of the two, which is not a formula, but a movement. Monopoly produces competition, competition produces monopoly. Monopolists are made from competition; competitors become monopolists. If the monopolists restrict their mutual competition by means of partial associations, competition increases among the workers; and the more the mass of the proletarians grows as against the monopolists of one nation, the more desperate competition becomes between the monopolists of different nations. The synthesis is of such a character that monopoly can only maintain itself by continually entering into the struggle of competition.

Karl Marx
The Poverty of Philosophy
Chapter Two: The Metaphysics of Political Economy

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Flaherty Saves Oil Patch

See the sky is not falling. Instead the boys in the Petro Towers in Calgary are hearing the sounds of pennies from heaven falling into their laps.

Oilsands stocks rallied yesterday on a US$4.15 jump in crude prices and optimism that Ottawa's surprise corporate tax cut could rescue producers from Alberta's oil and gas royalty increases.

Oilsands companies with long-term oilsands plans will be among the biggest beneficiaries of corporate tax changes proposed by Jim Flaherty, the Federal Finance Minister, on Tuesday, Andrew Potter, oil-and-gas analyst at UBS Securities Canada Inc., said in a research note.

The three most influential movers on the TSX were oilsands companies. EnCana Inc. jumped $2.96 to close at $66.10, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. rose $3.46 to close at $78.56, and Suncor Energy Inc. was up $3.79 to close at $103.45. Crude prices jumped as high as US$94.74 a barrel, a record price when not adjusting for inflation, on a report showing that inventories in the United States are at a two-year low. Crude for December delivery closed at US$94.53, up US$4.15.

As the old adage goes what the government taketh away the government gives to them that has.

Personal income taxes are being positively impacted in two ways -- by cutting the lowest rate by a half-percentage point, and by raising the "basic personal amount" that someone can earn without paying any tax.

The two measures together will produce an average saving of about $275 a year for most working Canadians.

Better than nothing, but still less that the price of a Tim's coffee per day.

BIG BUSINESS WINS

Big corporations, on the other hand, are in for significant tax reductions over the next five years as the federal rate drops to 15% from more than 22% today.

By 2012, the total cost to the treasury of giving corporations such a break is expected to be just over $14 billion, or almost 50% more than all of Flaherty's tax cuts for individual Canadian taxpayers over the very same period of time.

SEE:

Tax Cuts For The Rich Burden You and Me

Tax Fairness For The Rich

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Common sense from the common folks. And one thing you don't do is threaten Albertans with "we will get up and leave", cause you will get told "git up and go", "we can do it ourselves". It's an Alberta attitude of self reliance that the right wing likes to lay claim to, except when the shoe is on the other foot.

More Albertans support Premier Ed Stelmach's royalties strategy than do not, but his plan has fallen short of many people's expectations and may have created a "lose-lose" situation for the rookie Tory leader, a new poll indicates.

As the debate simmers, the online poll conducted by Leger Marketing shows most Albertans -- 61 per cent -- believe the oil and gas industry overinflated the negative consequences that higher royalties would have on the sector.

"The program fell short for many Albertans," Tremblay said.

The poll indicates many Albertans are skeptical of industry warnings, with six in 10 respondents agreeing the oil and gas industry overinflated the negative fallout from higher royalties. And just 38 per cent of people polled believe the new royalty regime will create job losses in Alberta, while 46 per cent do not.

As for the threat that the oilpatch will withdraw investment, about one-third agreed, but slightly more than half didn't buy it -- although the numbers show more Calgarians remain concerned than people in other areas of the province.

Only 28 per cent of Albertans agreed Stelmach's decision will have a negative effect on them or their families, either through work or through investments, while 52 per cent disagreed.

However, only 37 per cent of the people surveyed said Stelmach's decision will have a positive effect on them or their family through improved government spending on programs or infrastrastructure, while 39 per cent do not.

The poll of 804 Albertans, fielded from Friday to this Monday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Also see Enlightened Savage for his take on this poll.

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Stelmach's Royalty Give Away

As I said here Stelmach's Royalty announcement is a sell out.

Alberta's bid to wring more cash from the oil sands with a controversial royalty hike wound up as little more than "smoke and mirrors", one of the province's advisers said on Monday, as it backed away from key elements of a review panel's recommendations.

Pedro van Meurs, who has consulted on royalty regimes in 70 jurisdictions, said the Alberta government left cash on the table when it announced a new royalty scheme last week.

But van Meurs said the changes are at best a minor increase and the province's has lost a once-in-a-generation chance to get what he considers a fair share of the burgeoning sector's revenues.

"It's pretty disastrous," van Meurs told Reuters. "Instead of having a simple tax, what we are now going to see is very complicated system that is more smoke and mirrors than reality."

Van Meurs was a consultant for the review panel that recommended higher rates and a per-barrel tax on oil sands production.

"It's absolutely a minor increase," he said. "The most idiotic thing is that Alberta already had 25 percent."

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