Mystery plane crash: Were Serbian weapons headed for Ukraine?

Questions linger after a Ukrainian plane carrying Serbian weapons crashed in Greece. The incident spotlit Serbia's weapons industry and political corruption, as well as its attempts to balance between Russia and the EU.

Serbian offers every kind of weapon and has buyers right around the world

Serbian mortars and mines, sold by a mysterious arms dealer and supposedly bound for Bangladesh, then transported by a Ukrainian plane that crashed in Greece — it sounds like the plot of a political thriller. But this is reality.

In the late evening of July 16, 2022, a Ukrainian Antonov An-12 transport plane crashed near the city of Kavala, in northeastern Greece, killing all eight Ukrainian crew members. The plane had taken off from the city of Nis, in southern Serbia, and was carrying 11.5 tons of Serbian-made mortar rounds and mines.

The person behind the weapons' production is reportedly Slobodan Tesic, allegedly one of the biggest arms dealers in the Balkans and a long-term presence on US sanctions lists. The official country of destination for the munitions was Bangladesh. 

The pilot reported engine problems shortly after takeoff, while flying over the northern Aegean Sea. An emergency landing was no longer possible. The crash near Kavala was devastating and munitions continued to explode into the next day. 

None of the crew survived the plane crash and munitions exploded for hours

Largest arms producer in the region

The accident has soured diplomatic relations between Greece and Serbia on one hand, and Greece and Ukraine on the other. The Greek government apparently was not aware of the sensitive cargo and it has lodged protests in both countries. 

The catastrophe has also drawn attention to the Serbian weapons and arms industry, which routinely makes headlines for corruption and illegal exports.

Serbia is one of central Europe's largest and most important arms producers, a tradition that stretches back to the era of Yugoslavia. Nearly entirely state-owned, the industry is an important part of the country's economy. When it comes to what's on offer, Serbia has nearly everything, from handguns and mines to artillery and tanks, and even missile systems, drones, fighter jets and electronic equipment like radars.

The Serbian Ministry of Defense estimated the total value of Serbian arms exports in 2020 at some $600 million (€530 million), a figure that represents around 3% of Serbia's overall exports for the year. However, reliable figures are not available.

A Serbian-made tank

Arms deliveries to war and conflict zones

The most important buyers of Serbian arms and military equipment are the United Arab Emirates, Cyprus, the US, Bulgaria and Saudi Arabia. The industry's customers span the world and the branch is reportedly not picky about who they sell to, said political scientist Vuk Vuksanovic, of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy.

"The Serbian state really wants to squeeze every dinar possible out of this industry," he told DW. "The red line, however, is that export destination countries must not be under UN sanctions and must not be experiencing armed conflict."

However, Vuksanovic said, Serbia "doesn't always follow these rules."

In reality, over the past two decades, the Western Balkan nation repeatedly exported weapons to war and conflict zones and delivered them to countries that were under an arms embargo.

In fall 2019, it was revealed that Serbian weapons had made it into the hands of militant Islamists in Yemen via Saudi Arabia. In summer 2020, Azerbaijan's military discovered Serbian weapons that had been sold to Armenia and had landed in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. And in February of this year, a network of Serbian investigative journalists uncovered that Serbian weapons had been delivered to Myanmar even after the military coup of February 2021.

Serbian President Aleksander Vucic reviews Serbian-made weapons

Sanctions for arms dealer

The man whose name repeatedly comes up in connection with illegal Serbian arms dealings is Slobodan Tesic. The 64-year-old has been in the Balkan weapons business for decades. From 2003 to 2013, he was on a US sanctions list for having illegally delivered arms to Liberia. In December 2017, sanctions were once again placed on him for numerous illegal arms dealings. They remain in place today and include, among other things, a travel ban and the seizure of his US-based assets. American officials refer to him as the biggest dealer of arms and munitions in the Balkans.

Tesic is also at the center of multiple corruption affairs within the Serbian arms industry, including what's known as the Krusik export scandal, which came to light in fall 2019. Companies belonging to Tesic reportedly bought products from state-owned arms manufacturer Krusik well below market price, then sold them at a much higher price abroad — even though the state-owned company Yugoimport SDPR is responsible for managing Serbia's international arms deals.

Money for the president?

Money transfers to the ruling party of President Aleksander Vucic, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), are also said to have been part of business transactions between state-owned arms companies and private firms. Tesic is one of the largest SNS donors. According to Serbian media he also has a diplomatic passport.

The current Serbian Defense Minister's father, now deceased, is said to have been involved in similar weapons deals for years, something both Vucic and the minister, Nebojsa Stefanovic, have consistently denied. 

Current Serbian Defense Minister Stefanovic (center) has denied that his father had ties to the arms industry

It's no surprise that Tesic's name has surfaced in relation to the intended arms delivery to Bangladesh and the plane crash. He reportedly is behind Valir DOO, the company which was officially responsible for the deal. Tesic has not made any public remarks about the events or the allegations against him.

Belgrade's balancing act

There is also speculation as to whether the weapons were not actually destined for Bangladesh at all but for Ukraine. Both Defense Minister Stefanovic and the manager of the Ukrainian company Meridian, which owned the downed plane, have denied this.

But Vuksanovic believes that important questions remain. "The public is owed an answer as to why a Ukrainian plane was transporting Serbian weapons right now, while a major international conflict is raging on Ukrainian territory," he said.

The political scientist sees the affair as an expression of Belgrade's "seesaw" policies , attempting to balance between different major international powers.

"This would mean, on the one hand, secret munitions for Ukraine in order to please the West," he said. "On the other hand, concessions are being made to Russia by Serbia. All of this is part of the behavior of Belgrade's elites, their balancing between different international powerhouses in order to buy themselves services in return. For Serbia, the question is now whether these policies will collapse at a certain point because one of those powerhouses is angry."

This article was originally published in German.

Police clash with opponents of Serbian church in Montenegro

By PREDRAG MILIC

September 5, 2021

1 of 13

Protesters stand at one of the blockades during a protest against the inauguration of Metropolitan Joanikije, near Cetinje, Montenegro, Sunday, Sept. 5, 2021. Riot police used tear gas on protesters who fired gunshots in the air and hurled bottles and stones early Sunday in Montenegro before a planned inauguration of the new head of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the country. The ceremony scheduled in Cetinje, a former capital of the small Balkan nation, has angered opponents of the Serbian church in Montenegro, which declared independence from neighboring Serbia in 2006. 

(AP Photo/Risto Bozovic)


CETINJE, Montenegro (AP) — Arriving in a military helicopter, the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro was inaugurated in the state’s old capital on Sunday amid clashes between police and protesters who oppose continued Serb influence in the tiny Balkan nation.

Hospital officials in the city of Cetinje said at least 60 people were injured, including 30 police officers, in clashes that saw police launch tear gas against the demonstrators, who hurled rocks and bottles at them and fired gunshots into the air. At least 15 people were arrested.

Sunday’s inauguration ceremony angered opponents of the Serbian church in Montenegro, which declared independence from neighboring Serbia in 2006. Since Montenegro split from Serbia, pro-independence Montenegrins have advocated for a recognized Orthodox Christian church that is separate from the Serbian one.

Evading road blockades set up by the demonstrators, the new head of the Serbian church in Montenegro, Metropolitan Joanikije, arrived in Cetinje by a helicopter along with the Serbian Patriarch Porfirije. TV footage showed the priests being led into the Cetinje monastery by heavily armed riot police holding a bulletproof blanket to shield their bodies.

Patriarch Porfirije later wrote on Instagram that he was happy that the inauguration was held, but added that he was “horrified by the fact” that someone near the monastery wanted to prevent the ceremony “with a sniper rifle.” The claim could not be immediately independently verified.

The demonstrators set up barriers with trash bins, tires and large rocks to try to prevent church and state dignitaries from coming to the inauguration. Chanting “This is Not Serbia!” and “This is Montenegro!,” many of the protesters spent the night at the barriers amid reports that police were sending reinforcements to break through the blockade. Tires at one blockade were set on fire.

Montenegrins remain deeply divided over their country’s ties with neighboring Serbia and the Serbian Orthodox Church, which is the nation’s dominant religious institution. Around 30% of Montenegro’s 620,000 people consider themselves Serb.

Metropolitan Joanikije said after the ceremony that “the divisions have been artificially created and we have done all in our power to help remove them, but that will take a lot of time.”

In a clear demonstration of the sharp political divide in Montenegro, President Milo Djukanovic, the architect of the state’s independence from Serbia, visited Cetinje while the current pro-Serb Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic went to Podgorica to welcome the Serbian patriarch.

While Krivokapic branded the protests as “an attempted terrorist act,” Djukanovic said the protesters in Cetinje were guarding national interests against the alleged bid by the much larger Serbia to impose its influence in Montenegro through the church.

Djukanovic accused the current Montenegrin government of “ruthlessly serving imperial interests of (Serbia) and the Serbian Orthodox Church, which is a striking fist of Serbian nationalism, all against Montenegro.”

Montenegro’s previous authorities led the country to independence from Serbia and defied Russia to join NATO in 2017. Montenegro also is seeking to become a European Union member.

In Serbia, President Aleksandar Vucic, who has been accused by the opposition in Montenegro of meddling in its internal affairs in conjunction with Russia, congratulated Joanikije on his inauguration and praised the government for going ahead with the ceremony despite the clashes.

“Cetinje is a town where some 90% of the people are against the Serbian Orthodox Church, where there is hate towards everyone who is not Montenegrin,” Vucic said in Belgrade. “This is not a real hate, its hate that is induced by certain politicians in Montenegro, so it was quite logical to expect what happened there.”

The U.S. government urged all sides “to urgently de-escalate the situation.”

“Religious freedom and the freedom of expression, including to peacefully assemble, must be respected,” the U.S. Embassy said.

Joanikije’s predecessor as church leader in Montenegro, Amfilohije, died in October after contracting COVID-19.

___

Dusan Stojanovic and Jovana Gec contributed from Belgrade, Serbia.

UPDATED

Montenegro police clash with protestors as ethnic tensions flare over Serbian church ceremony

Monetenegrin Orthodox Christians gather in front of the orthodox cathedral in Podgorica, on September 4, 2021, to show support for the enthronement of the new bishop amid divisions over the issue. 

© Savo Prelevic, AFP

Issued on: 05/09/2021 - 10:48
Text by: NEWS WIRES|
Video by: Carys GARLAND

Police in Montenegro on Sunday dispersed hundreds of demonstrators who gathered in the historic city of Cetinje to block the inauguration of the new head of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the tiny Balkans nation.

Police fired tear gas at the protesters gathered on the main square, about 100 metres from a 15th century monastery where the new Metropolitan of Montenegro Joanikije is to be enthroned later on Sunday, state television reported.

The planned event has exacerbated ethnic tensions in the country, which broke away from Serbia in 2006.

While the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) is the dominant religion in Montenegro, critics accuse it of serving the interests of Belgrade.

And the government that assumed power at the end of the 2020 is accused by its opponents of being too close to the church.

But nearly a third of Montenegro's 620,000 population identifies as Serb and some even refuse to acknowledge Montenegro's independence.

Opponents of the inauguration set up barricades on Saturday to block access roads to Cetinje.

Demonstrators shouted "This is not Serbia!" and "Long live Montenegro!" on the main road linking Cetinje to the capital Podgorica on Saturday.

Many spent the night around fires they lit to keep warm, an AFP correspondent said.

'Defending our dignity'

The protesters hope to prevent SPC leaders, including its patriach Porfirije, from entering into the monastery, the SPC seat in the country but which is seen as a symbol of national identity by many Montenegrins.

But Joanikije and Porfirije arrived in front of the monastery by helicopter Sunday, surrounded by police, images released by the daily Vijesti showed.

"I am here to show my love for the country," said one protester, Saska Brajovic, 50.

"We are not asking for anything from anyone else, but we are dismissed by the occupying Serbian Church. We are here defending our dignity," Brajovic, who spent the night at a barricade, told AFP.

The protesters are backed by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) of President Milo Djukanovic.

Djukanovic had been eager to curb the SPC's clout in Montenegro and build up an independent Orthodox church.

But in August 2020 elections the DPS lost -- for the first time in three decades -- to an opposition bloc led by SPC allies.

Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic, who is close to the Serbian Orthodox Church, has accused Djukanovic of having deliberately stocked the recent tensions.

Metropolitan Joanikije was named to his new post in May, after the death of his predecessor Metropolitan Amfilohije from Covid-19. He had run the church in Montenegro since 1990.

(AFP)

Montenegro clashes ahead of Orthodox leader's inauguration

Issued on: 04/09/2021 

By Saturday evening, all roads into Cetinje had been blocked 

SAVO PRELEVIC AFP

Cetinje (Montenegro) (AFP)

Protesters clashed with police Saturday in the southern Montenegrin city of Cetinje as ethnic tensions rose a day ahead of the inauguration of the new head of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the tiny Balkans nation.

Hundreds of protesters forced their way past police cordons on the outskirts of Cetinje and put up barricades blocking access to the historic city, once the royal capital, an AFP correspondent reported.

Demonstrators shouted "This is not Serbia!" and "Long live Montenegro!" on the main road linking Cetinje to the capital Podgorica.

By Saturday evening, all roads into the city had been blocked.

Police and special forces were deployed around the monastery itself, but have not for the moment intervened.

Sunday's enthronement of the new Metropolitan of Montenegro Joanikije has exacerbated ethnic tensions in this country, which broke away from Serbia in 2006.

Nearly a third of Montenegro's 620,000 population identifies as Serb and some even refuse to acknowledge Montenegro's independence.

Riot police have been deployed around the monastery 

SAVO PRELEVIC AFP

While the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) is the dominant religion in Montenegro, critics accuse it of serving the interests of Belgrade.

The government that assumed power at the end of the 2020, is accused by its critics of being too close to the church.

Thousands protested last December when it amended a controversial law that had aimed to make hundreds of Serbian Orthodox monasteries Montenegrin state property.

Montenegro's President Milo Djukanovic, whose party passed the original law, had been eager to curb the SPC's clout in Montenegro and build up an independent Orthodox church.

But in August 2020 elections his Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) lost -- for the first time in three decades -- to an opposition bloc led by SPC allies.

The latest protests were called by a number of organisations as well as the DPS.

Critics of the Serbian Orthodox Church accuse it of serving the interests of Belgrade SAVO PRELEVIC AFP

President Djukanovic himself arrived at the city on Saturday evening, having earlier announced that he would join the protests against the ceremony.

Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic, who is close to the SPC, has accused Djukanovic of having deliberately stocked the recent tensions.

Metropolitan Joanikije was named to his new post in May, after the death of his predecessor Metropolitan Amfilohije from Covid-19. He had run the church in Montenegro since 1990.

© 2021 AF

Montenegro: Tensions erupt over Serbian church leaders

Protesters have blocked roads in Montenegro as the Serbian Orthodox Church prepares to inaugurate Montenegro's next top cleric. They reportedly threw stones at police, shouting: "This is not Serbia."


The small Balkan country remains deeply divided over its ties with the neighboring Serbia and the Serbian Orthodox Church


Police fired tear gas and began to take down barricades Sunday in Cetinje, Montenegro ahead of the inauguration of the new leader of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the country.

Sunday's planned ceremony in the historic Montenegrin city of Cetinje has infuriated opponents of the Serbian church. Jasmin Mujanovic, an expert in Southeast European affairs, posted some videos of the clashes on Twitter.

The small Balkan nation declared independence from neighboring Serbia in 2006, but some Montenegrins remain divided over their country's relations with Serbia and the Serbian Orthodox church — Montenegro's dominant religious institution. Around 30% of Montenegro's population consider themselves Serb.

The inauguration is set to take place in a monastery in Cetinje, the one-time capital of Montenegro

Since its independence, some Montenegrins have called for a new Orthodox Christian church that is separate from the Serbian one.
What is happening in Cetinje?

Protesters in Cetinje waved Montenegrin flags, as dozens set up road barriers with garbage containers, car tires and stones to block entrance to the city.

They said their goal was to prevent Metropolitan Bishop Joanikije II and other church and state officials from entering the city for the inauguration, the local Vijesti newspaper reported.

By Saturday evening, protesters had blocked all the roads into the city of Cetinje.

Patriarch Porfirije, head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, arrived in the capital, Podgorica, on Saturday evening.

Porfirije is scheduled to attend the inauguration of Joanikije, whose predecessor as the church's leader in Montenegro, Amfilohije, died in October last year following COVID-19-related complications.

Montenegrin state RTCG broadcaster reported that demonstrators managed to break through a police barricade at the entrance to the city and threw stones at officers, yelling: "This is Montenegro!" and "This is not Serbia!"

Last month, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Cetinje, demanding that the inauguration take place elsewhere. The church has refused to modify its plans.

Serbian elections: Aleksandar Vucic's media dominance aids bid for another term

Serbs head to the polls on Sunday to vote in the presidential and parliamentary elections. President Aleksandar Vucic, who is likely to stay in power, has benefitted from the media limelight amid the war in Ukraine.


Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic dominates the media


Wherever Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic takes the stage to campaign for his reelection, he is greeted with roars of applause as supporters wave Serbian flags.

It is difficult to say whether these are authentic or staged displays of affection. In any case, Vucic's reelection campaign is a highly organized affair — and nothing is left to chance — with thousands of supporters arriving in buses to take part in the rallies. Independent Serbian media outlets report that municipal employees are required to attend.

"We want to achieve an even clearer victory this time, with Serbia voting for the future, liberty and stability," Vucic said at a recent rally.


Aleksandar Vucic has held key Serbian posts for a decade

Serbia will see a spate of key elections this Sunday: Voters will cast ballots in the presidential, snap parliamentary, and Belgrade regional elations. Many expect Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) to emerge victorious.

A major Belgrade betting company is offering just €2 in winnings on a €100 ($110) bet placed on Vucic's win. Polls, too, suggest the incumbent could maintain the presidency in the first round of voting — and his party is expected to win an absolute majority.

Serbia's fractured opposition parties could, however, make gains in Belgrade's regional elections.

Provider of stability amid war?

Amid Russia's war on Ukraine, Vucic has reiterated in television interviews that his victory would deliver "peace" and "stability." While Serbia — an EU candidate country — condemns Russia for violating Ukraine's territorial integrity, it did not join in Western sanctions targeting Moscow.

One reason is that many Serbs feel culturally and historically connected to Russia. Another is that Serbia's leadership knows the country is heavily dependent on Russia for energy. And when it comes to the Kosovo issue, Russia takes Serbia's side. Neither Moscow nor Belgrade recognize the independence of the former south Serbian province.

Russian President Putin and his Serbian counterpart in Belgrade in January 2019

With the war in Ukraine dominating the headlines, Vucic has benefited. He tallies how many tons of wheat, maize and sardines the country has stockpiled for emergencies. He presents himself as the guarantor of peace safeguarding the precarious Balkans.

"This propaganda aims to instill fear in people," philosopher Vladimir Milutinovic, author of a book on Vucic's rhetoric, tells DW.

"The tabloids write that economic collapse is imminent elsewhere, that famine is even looming in Germany. Such statements are intended to cast Serbia as an oasis of stability."

Golden ticket: Party membership card?

For 10 years, Aleksandar Vucic has held leadership posts in Serbia. His Serbian Progressive Party controls most major television stations and tabloid papers, in addition to state-run companies and municipal administrations.

On television chat shows, opposition lawmakers are regularly vilified as thieves and traitors. Vucic has referred to his political party as a catch-all movement for everyone, regardless of ideology. The party has some 700,000 members — that's one-tenth of Serbia's entire population. The reason, however, is that it's almost impossible to get a job in the civil service, government, or state-owned companies without a party membership card.

"The Serbian Progressive Party dominates public opinion," says Dejan Bursac of the Belgrade-based Institute for Political Studies.

"This allows Vucic to take contradictory positions and appeal to voters on all sides. He makes agreements with Kosovo, yet also spouts fiery nationalist rhetoric — or he boasts of how Serbia was one of the first countries to secure enough coronavirus vaccines, then quickly lifts all measures against the pandemic."

Opposition parties struggling to get heard

That leaves Serbia's opposition with limited options for winning over voters. Their main campaign issues are addressing corruption, environmental degradation, and drawing attention to the government's alleged ties to the mafia — none of these issues garnered much attention since war broke out in Ukraine.

Environmental demonstrators block a Belgrade highway in January 2022

Just a few months back, opposition figures were finally beginning to get their message across. Environmental activists had blocked several highways to protest against a large lithium mine planned to open in western Serbia. Critics feared the Anglo-Australian mining company Rio Tinto would cause serious environmental damage and shift profits out of the country.

President Vucic was forced to switch into crisis-management mode. Sensing the issue could harm his reelection campaign, Vucic revoked Rio Tinto's mining permit. And with that, public interest in the issue vanished almost overnight.

Game of cat and mouse

Such political dominance would be almost unthinkable without the party's sway in Serbian media and the practically limitless financial means, writes independent weekly Vreme.

Investigative reporters recently revealed that the party had spent some €23 million ($25 million) on election campaigns between 2015 and 2021 — three times more than all opposition parties combined. This means the regime is in control of everything and "can play a game of cat and mouse with its political opponents," according to Vreme.

Opposition parties largely boycotted the 2020 parliamentary elections, citing unfair conditions. This year, several opposition coalitions are expected to win seats in the legislature. The United Serbia coalition, a broad alliance of centrist parties, is projected to take between 15% and 20% of the vote. Their presidential candidate, Zdravko Ponos, a retired chief of staff in the Serbian armed forces, could fare even better.

The green alliance Moramo, meaning "We Must," could also pass the 3% threshold and enter parliament. Unimaginable in Serbia until recently, the environmental parties gained momentum from their fight against the Rio Tinto mine.

Social and economic issues key

The country's nationalists and right-wing camp, in contrast, appears more fractured, fielding five presidential candidates and just as many electoral lists. Their positions and nationalist slogans. do resonate with many voters. More than 80% of Serbians say they reject joining NATO, and two-thirds say Russia is Serbia's most important partner. Even so, Serbia's right-wing and nationalists don't have a good chance of securing any seats.

Serbian ultra-nationalist and convicted war criminal Vojislav Seselj is also in the race

Political analyst Bursac says the reason for this is that many in Serbia are more concerned with social and economic issues, rather than the Kosovo question and related topics. Today, he says, nationalism is not the basis for Serbian populism, but merely an additive.

Massive debt

"Vucic's main voters since 2012 have been those who have lost out to the economic crisis: pensioners, housewives and low- to middle-income workers," says Bursac. "In the election campaign, the president promises new factories, highways and hospitals. The message is clear: There is hope for Serbia and for everyone."

Some observers, however, warn that this approach will entail massive public debt. The price of food and energy could climb even further after the election. Analysts are also convinced that Brussels will increase its pressure on Serbia to join the EU in targeting Russia with sanctions.

Radmilo Markovic contributed to this report

This article was originally written in German

The Balkan Roots of the Far Right’s “Great Replacement” Theory

The “Great Replacement” theory is behind the far right’s worst acts of terrorism, from Christchurch to El Paso. It has its roots in the Balkans, where it inspired Serb Nationalists to genocide

Jasmin Mujanović

A sticker placed on a traffic bollard proclaiming ‘Multiculturalism is Genocide’ in the Barnsbury area of Islington, north London/Yui Mok/PA Images via Getty Images


When Ratko Mladic’s Serb nationalist forces entered the Srebrenica enclave in eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 11, 1995, the general of the self-styled “Army of the Republika Srpska” took a moment to speak to an accompanying camera crew.

“Here we are,” he says solemnly, “on July 11, 1995, in Serbian Srebrenica.” What followed was Mladic’s rationale for the extermination campaign that was unfolding in the city, the culmination of the nearly four-year-long Bosnian Genocide orchestrated by Mladic and his political masters, Slobodan Milosevic and Radovan Karadzic: “We gift this town to the Serb people. Finally, the moment has come, after the uprising against the Dahijas, for us to take revenge against the Turks in this region.”

Even those who had followed the news of the Bosnian War but were unfamiliar with Serb nationalist lexicon would have struggled to make sense of Mladic’s pronouncements. But this was the clearly articulated thesis of the Belgrade-orchestrated war and genocide in Bosnia, and it is a sentiment that has continued to percolate through to the present – not just in the Balkans but, increasingly, throughout the West.

The essence of Mladic’s project is known to the contemporary, Western far right as the “Great Replacement” theory: the idea that Muslims are waging demographic warfare against white, Christian Europeans, seeking to outbreed and replace them and their civilization. And defending “Western civilization,” as such, requires a confrontation with the “invaders.” Or as the Canadian reactionary Mark Steyn put it in a 2006 New York Times bestseller:


“In a democratic age, you can’t buck demography – except through civil war. The Serbs figured that out, as other Continentals will in the years ahead: If you cannot outbreed the enemy, cull ‘em. The problem that Europe faces is that Bosnia’s demographic profile is now the model for the entire continent.”

Though Mladic and his associates did not use the term Great Replacement (it was only coined by the French neo-fascist writer Renaud Camus in 2010), their paranoid, genocidal campaign against the Bosniak community in Bosnia (and later ethnic Albanians in Kosovo) and the accompanying narratives justifying these pogroms electrified far-right extremists in the West. In a sense, Mladic and his cohort were the true authors of the Great Replacement doctrine – and all its accompanying bloodletting.

Today, the Bosnian Genocide is a rhetorical and conceptual pillar of the Western far right, an example of the kinds of regimes and policies they embrace and aspire to replicate. In untangling the origins of this coupling, a still more disturbing reality emerges: Bosnia’s recent past – the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the ensuing war, and the accompanying genocide – is what many contemporaries on the Western radical right imagine, and aspire to reenact, in their own societies.

Mladic’s oratory in Srebrenica referenced the events of the First Serbian Uprising (1804-1813), during which the leaders of the incipient Serbian state sought to overthrow the Dahijas – the largely autonomous, Ottoman-backed military regime that governed the then Sanjak of Smederevo. In the canon of Serbian nationalist thought, the struggle against the Dahijas (a South Slavic transfiguration of the Ottoman Turkish word dayı) signified the rebirth of the Serbian nation, whose statehood and autonomy, they argued, had been extinguished by the 15th century conquest of Southeastern Europe by the Ottomans.

This is a Christian parable of the (re)birth of a nation. And as in D.W. Griffith’s “The Birth of a Nation,” the central conceit is the eternal struggle between a noble warrior race and a savage, racialized Other. In the standard telling of the former, the 1389 Battle of Kosovo – a bloody but indecisive clash between the invading Ottomans and a coalition of Serbian, Bosnian, Croatian, and Albanian lords – marked the metaphorical death of the medieval Serbian state. Prince Lazar, who led the Serbian forces, and the knight Milos Obilic, who in the oral tradition is said to have killed Murad I on the battlefield but may in reality be a mythic figure invented after the fact, subsequently assumed Christ-like characters. They became folk heroes who sacrificed themselves to preserve the Serbian people and their state in the Kingdom of Heaven, even as it was conquered on Earth.

The prophecy of the second coming of the Serbian polity was then fulfilled in the 19th century as the Ottoman hold on the Balkans slipped, and a modern Serbian state emerged and quickly began vying for political and military supremacy in the region. But left unaddressed for both 19th and 20th century Serbian nationalists was the lingering problem of “the Turks,” that is, the indigenous Muslim populations of the Balkans – primarily the Bosniaks of Bosnia and the Albanians of Kosovo (often referred in the discourses of the era as Arnauti, another Ottoman era term for region’s ethnic Albanians).

In the century between the First Serbian Uprising and the start of World War I, a de facto (if not always systemic) method took root to address this problem: Local Muslim populations, whether Slavic, Albanian, or Turkish, were to be expelled and/or exterminated wherever the new Serbian authorities managed to establish even a momentary political claim. The process was emulated by the new Greek, Bulgarian, and Romanian authorities as well. The exact figures are disputed or otherwise difficult to establish, but, conservatively, hundreds of thousands of Muslims left the area during this period – primarily resettling in modern-day Turkey – and at least that many were killed. But both figures are likely in the millions. Taken in conjunction with the horrors of the Armenian Genocide, the period marking the end of the Ottoman Empire is likely one of the bloodiest in modern European history, a horrific and sustained unmixing of peoples.

But the new state system that emerged in Southeastern and Eastern Europe in the wake of the Ottoman era was weak. The new nationalist regimes were perennially unsatisfied with the boundaries of their territories and devoted the brunt of their meager resources to war making rather than the development of local economies or civil societies. By the time the First World War began in 1914, most of the region had already seen two devastating years of fighting and atrocities during the Balkan Wars of 1912-1914. After 1918, the long-promised unification of the South Slavs produced the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, a union so ensnared by crisis and factionalism that its brief experiment with parliamentary democracy lasted barely a decade before it was aborted by the autocratic Serbian crown. By the time of the Axis invasion of what was then called the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, the country was effectively on the brink of civil war.

The second Yugoslav state, the one formed by Josip Broz Tito’s communists after the Second World War, lasted twice as long as its predecessor, but it too collapsed under the weight of authoritarian and sectarian animus. Once more, it was the regime in Belgrade, this time led by the soon-to-be genocidaire Slobodan Milosevic, that whipped up Serbian nationalism to carve out a “Greater Serbia” from the carcass of the Yugoslav federation. Fusing medieval myths with sectarian grievances from the 20th century and disseminating it through modern propaganda techniques, Milosevic, an erstwhile and middling communist apparatchik, presented himself as the new Lazar.

The four subsequent wars he launched – in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosovo – spanned the entire decade of the 1990s, resulting in the deaths of nearly 150,000 people, with two-thirds of these occurring during the Bosnian War. The concurrent Bosnian Genocide was not merely a byproduct of Milosevic’s project but, in fact, its primary objective. The creation of the so-called Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina (and the Republika Srpska Karjina in Croatia) – the breakaway territories self-declared by local proxies of the Belgrade regime, similar to the Russian-occupied “People’s Republics” in eastern Ukraine today – was explicitly premised on the wholesale removal and extermination of the non-Serb populations of these areas; in many cases, these populations constituted the majority in the targeted region.

There was no motive for Milosevic’s policies in Bosnia, or the policies of his proxies, other than the imposition of ethnic homogeneity through violence and terror. These were both the aim and the method for achieving these objectives. But the outward face of the project – embodied by the telegenic figures of Karadzic and Milosevic, who both spoke fluent English – was pure equivocation. Though both Karadzic and Milosevic routinely denied the systematic nature of their genocide, they never denied its necessity. Here they remained categorical: The Bosniaks, like the Kosovar Albanians, were an abscess that had to be removed from the body of Christian Europe. It was ugly going, to be sure, but they were the knights on the ramparts “guarding” the whole of the continent. In the fevered swamps of the Serbian tabloids, the language was even more explicit: Serbia was Byzantium restored, the cradle of Christian civilization, taking its glorious vengeance on the Turks, the Moors, and the whole of the Muslim world.

From the onset, this narrative made inroads into segments of the West. Robert Kaplan’s 1993 “Balkan Ghosts” did not embrace the Bosnian Genocide but, like Steyn, he framed it as a historical inevitability; the triumph of what he infamously called “ancient ethnic hatreds.” Kaplan’s framing was formative, profoundly shaping the views of then-U.S. President Bill Clinton in (initially) rejecting the possibility of American or international intervention in the war. After all, what business did Washington have in meddling in this primordial bloodletting? British and French officials of the time were even more blunt in their remarks to Clinton: The events in Bosnia were “painful” but also the “necessary restoration of Christian Europe.”

Such attitudes were widespread, especially in Europe. The Austrian novelist and playwright Peter Handke, for instance, explicitly defended Milosevic and his war effort. As soon as the Bosnian War had ended, Handke toured the killing fields and partied with the killers. He was a guest of honor at Milosevic’s funeral and delivered his eulogy. Such abasement notwithstanding, he was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2019. Living Marxism, the magazine of the U.K.-based Revolutionary Communist Party, falsely claimed that photographs from the Trnopolje and Omarska concentration camps were staged. One of the magazine’s editors, Claire Fox, eventually went on to join the Brexit Party (now Reform UK) and today sits as a member of the House of Lords, the upper house of the U.K. Parliament.

While the Clinton administration finally – and begrudgingly – intervened in the war, European governments remained largely unmoved even as they watched the killings in Srebrenica unfold in real time.

After 9/11, preexisting revisionist and negationist discourses about Bosnia began to aggressively percolate through a newly invigorated Western far right. The attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon recast the nature of Milosevic and Karadzic’s project; to Western reactionaries it became a prophetic war, led by men who recognized the true threat of “militant Islam” and thus the need for a true clash of civilizations. That the cause of Bosnian independence was overwhelmingly secular, led by a multiethnic coalition of Bosnians of all ethnicities and religions, including non-nationalist Serbs, of course, never entered this discourse.

By the 2010s, Bosnian Genocide denial and the valorization of Serb nationalist war criminals became a staple of Western far-right discourses – a pillar of their ideological and political lexicon like the Confederacy, the Third Reich, or the African apartheid regimes. It soon started featuring in the manifestos of far-right terrorists.

Anders Breivik, the terrorist who executed the attacks in Norway in 2011, made nearly 1,000 mentions of the Yugoslav Wars in his meandering manifesto. Eric Frein, who orchestrated the 2014 attack on the Pennsylvania State Police barracks, frequently cosplayed in Serb nationalist uniforms. And Brenton Tarrant, sentenced to life imprisonment for the 2019 Christchurch mosque killings, covered his rifles and munitions in the names of Serb and Montenegrin historical figures and livestreamed himself playing a Serb nationalist ballad glorifying Karadzic’s genocide from the Bosnian War. And while the 2019 El Paso terrorist did not cite Serb nationalist motifs, his manifesto credits Tarrant and the Great Replacement as his primary inspirations, directing his ire at Latinos and Hispanics rather than Muslims.


Among the far right, “kebab” is used as a derogatory term for Muslims, and Tarrant referred to himself as a “kebab removalist” in his manifesto.

In the sewers of the online far right, Serb nationalist themes are even more prominent. The song Tarrant played on his way to massacre the congregants in Christchurch is a well-known meme among extremists and gamers. The original is titled “Karadžiću, vodi Srbe svoje” (“Karadzic, lead your Serbs”) but it is known online primarily as the “Remove Kebab Song” or “Serbia Strong.” Among the far right, “kebab” is used as a derogatory term for Muslims, and Tarrant referred to himself as a “kebab removalist” in his manifesto. A cursory search for the song on platforms like YouTube reveals millions of views and hundreds of thousands of comments, most of them in English. Those willing to dive deeper into the underground forums and message boards of the far right will easily discover their intimate familiarity with the Bosnian Genocide and the deeds of Serb nationalist genocidaires.

As the Western far right gains political currency in Europe and the U.S., it is likely that their interest in the wars in Bosnia and Kosovo will become more pronounced. The turn toward paranoid identity politics and demographic fetishism among ostensibly center-right parties on both sides of the Atlantic readily comports to the ideological discourses developed by Serb nationalists during the 1980s and 1990s. Their current encounters with similar “traditionalist” and “patriotic” discourses emanating from Russia – and the Kremlin’s court intellectuals like Aleksandr Dugin or the late faux-dissident Eduard Limonov (a close associate of Karadzic) – will also serve to further disseminate Serb nationalist ideas, as Moscow is the primary international patron of the revisionist regimes in Belgrade and Bosnia’s Republika Srpska.

Following the sacking of the U.S. Capitol by an extremist mob on Jan. 6, 2021, the ascendancy of far-right movements in the established democracies has finally landed as, arguably, the central national security issue facing the West. Confronting the QAnon cult has required that researchers and law enforcement decode an obscurantist ideological and political lexicon; the same will be required in recognizing the extent to which Serb nationalist ideas have penetrated many of these same extremist circles.

Beyond the immediate security concerns, however, the Bosnian Genocide should serve as a critical lesson for democratic societies everywhere. Genocides are not sudden eruptions of freewheeling violence. They are meticulously organized, administratively complex undertakings. They require project managers, bureaucrats, and executioners. Above all, they require ideological justifications. The ideas and discourses of the architects of the Bosnian Genocide have already taken root in the West, contributing to many deaths. Failure to recognize this runs the risk of letting Bosnia’s recent past shape our collective future.

Jasmin Mujanović

 

Why did Serbia react so harshly to the UN resolution on Srebrenica?

WHITE CHRISTIAN NATIONALISTS

Copyright Darko Bandic/Copyright 2021 The AP. All rights reserved

By Sergio Cantone

Published on 25/05/2024 - 

Serbian government and public opinion have continued to harshly criticise the UN General Assembly's decision on Thursday to pass the resolution commemorating the 1995 genocide in Srebrenica. Why is this the case?

The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolution decision on Thursday to declare 11 July the International Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica has a highly political role, according to the regional actors. 

The Serbian government and public opinion have been staunchly criticising it since its preliminary phases.

Belgrade sees the declaration as a part of a comprehensive Western political and diplomatic offensive against Serbia and the Serbs on issues covering a spectrum from Kosovo to the Bosnian question, two main key talking points for the government in Belgrade, which regards them as unresolved issues stemming from the wars of Yugoslavia in the 1990s

Bosnian Serb leader threatens secession ahead of UN genocide vote

UN approves annual commemoration of 1995 Srebrenica genocide

Meanwhile, its proponents highlight that the resolution is solely meant to commemorate the victims of the July 1995 events in the eastern Bosnian town.

The document is comparable to the UN resolution designating 7 April as the International Day of Reflection on the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda.

Germany and Rwanda, the two countries that proposed and drafted the settlement on the Tutsi massacre approved by the UNGA in 2018, were the main co-sponsors of the Srebrenica resolution.

Serbian political context

As Serbia prepares to hold key local elections on 2 June — including who will rule over Belgrade — Bosnia and Kosovo are still crucial factors in the public political debate of the Western Balkans country. 

Serbian conservative President Aleksandar Vučić's reluctance to join the EU sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine has also contributed to strained relations between his country on the one side and the EU, the US and some of its neighbours on the other.

Serbian President Aleksandar VucicDarko Vojinovic/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserv

Serbia's potential EU membership could be put on hold, while according to various opinion polls, Euroscepticism in the Balkan country has prevailed over the blossoming Europhilia of the early 2000s. 

Whether this is a reaction to the enlargement blues outspokenly displayed by some in the EU or a genuine national sentiment, in the eyes of some in Serbia, hesitance toward the West is a part of pushback against its many demands.

Former Yugoslavia and international justice

The verdicts from the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) clearly established the personal responsibility of individuals and concrete military units and made a distinction between those and any collective actors, such as Serbia and the Republika Srpska — the Serb-majority entity of Bosnia — and the genocide in Srebrenica. 

Serbia initially started to take steps and recognise the rulings at home. In 2010, the country's National Assembly adopted its own Resolution on Srebrenica based on the ICJ's verdict, but without explicitly mentioning genocide. Then, in 2015, President Vučić went to Srebrenica to pay tribute to the victims.

Meanwhile, the text of the UN resolution commemorating the Srebrenica genocide excludes the Serbian collective responsibility for the "Bosnian Genocide" thanks to a Montenegrin amendment.

Supporters of Bosnian Serb political leader Milorad DodikRadivoje Pavicic/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved

"Serbia is afraid that the resolution could be misused at the international fora, and it could become 'evidence' that the Serbian nation, the Serb people and the Republika Srpska bear the responsibility for the genocide, Serbian legal expert Milan Antonijević said. 

"When one reads the text of the resolution, one realises that without any doubt, it is condemning the genocide in Srebrenica and not linking it to any of the nations involved (in the conflict). But the legal level and its wording are one thing, and the political PR is another."

During the Bosnian war, over the course of three days around 11 July 1995, the Bosnian Serb army of the Republika Srpska killed 8,000 Bosniak men and boys despite the area having been officially designated by the UN as a “safe area” for civilians. 

Those units were under the military orders of General Ratko Mladić and the political leader of the former president of the Republika Srpska, Radovan Karadžić.

banners of the former Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadzic and Ratko MladicAndrej Cukic/AP

A considerable number of Bosnian Serb officials, both army officers and politicians, were condemned by the ICTY for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. Both Mladić and Karadžić were sentenced to life for genocide, among other counts.

It was the first time in Europe since World War II and the Nuremberg trials against Nazi German top officials that an international tribunal issued a verdict on genocide.

"When the Serb (political actors) accepted, reluctantly, their responsibility for the Srebrenica genocide, they believed that they were forced to do that. And if you look at their actions and their rhetoric, you do realise this reluctant acceptance of responsibility happened under a lot of pressure in a different geopolitical situation," Bosnian historian Adnan Huskić, from the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, told Euronews. 

"And ever since, what they have been doing was to permanently deny that the genocide took place and used any available opportunity to rehabilitate the persons who were found guilty in front of the ICTY," Huskić said.

'Missing an opportunity to use an opportunity'

After the military and political setbacks of the 1990s and the fall of the Slobodan Milošević regime, Serbia started a process of rapprochement with the EU and the US. 

At that time, Russia and China were much less assertive than they are today — the "different geopolitical context" Huskić mentions.

According to opposition politician, writer, and former Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vuk Drašković, Serbia should have joined the initiative and backed the resolution.

"Unfortunately, the Serbian government missed an opportunity to use an opportunity to support this resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica, explaining that the Serbian nation further condemned crimes because Serbs, as a people, were the victims of a genocide during World War II," Drašković told Euronews. 

"By paying tribute to the victims of the genocide in Srebrenica, we would have paid tribute to the Serb victims in World War II," he explained.

Overview of the courtroom at the International Court of Justice, also known as the World Court, in The Hague, the NetherlandsBAS CZERWINSKI/AP2007

In the early 1990s, Vuk Drašković proposed a general reconciliation among the peoples of former Yugoslavia to rebuild inter-communitarian confidence in the region through a collective recognition of the mutual and respective historical guilts for the massacres of the past. This was the central focus of his foreign and security policy, along with the full integration of Serbia into the West.

After the wars, Drašković opposed the violent dissolution of Yugoslavia and the role played by Milošević's Serbia as he participated in the democratic governments in Belgrade. As the head of Serbian diplomacy, he established the basis for his country's EU membership application and a clear path to softening relations with NATO. 

Unresolved Bosnian question

Nevertheless, more than thirty years have passed since the end of the war, and the question of the future of Bosnia and the delicate balance between the three main ethnic communities is still a source of concern in the region. 

The key to the complex and complicated political system can be traced back to the 1995 US-brokered Dayton Agreement, which put an end to the bloodshed between Bosnian Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks, turning Bosnia into a de facto protectorate of the international community.

Last month, Vučić criticised the draft resolution, saying it should have been presented at the UN Security Council rather than in front of the UN General Assembly because the "region is not stabilised yet".  

A constitutional reform could have revised the strict political separation among the Bosnian communities established by the Dayton Peace Accords and eliminated mechanisms that blocked almost all decision-making processes along ethnic lines — the root cause of all divisive politics in the country.

Nevertheless, after decades of attempts, the process collided with the new political instability generated by the Russian war in Ukraine.  



from left, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman and U.S. Secretary of State Warren ChristopherJoe Marquette/AP

"I don't think that there is an overwhelming will to replace the current communitarian power-sharing system. I don't see the actors that could push the process forward," commented Huskić.  

I don't think that there is either a regional or a global environment favourable to that move. The process is going in another direction, and I think Bosnia is becoming more communitarian than before. The constitutional reform has stalled," he concluded. 

Serbia, Bosnia and the war in Ukraine

The Ukrainian war and its spillover have deeply influenced the situation in Central and Eastern Europe and reignited the unresolved conflicts between old adversaries.

"I cannot forget the very wrong message conveyed by the Serbian Orthodox Church that Russians, whatever they are doing, must be supported by the Serbs because they are our Orthodox brothers. This is why the (Serb Orthodox) Church did not condemn the Russian aggression on Ukraine," Drašković said. 

The Serbian government believes that German diplomacy, led by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, seems to be putting more pressure on Belgrade than other countries on many issues, from Kosovo to Russia and Bosnia. Germany was the co-sponsor of the UN resolution on the Srebrenica genocide, after all.

Vuk Draskovic, center, the veteran charismatic Serbian opposition leader,Joe Marquette/AP

"I think that the German foreign policy since Angela Merkel stepped down is much harsher towards Serbia," Antonijević said. 

"It is true that Germany is still supporting the accession of Belgrade to the EU and investing huge (amounts of) money in Serbia. Yet, Berlin should coordinate more with Belgrade, especially because next year, 2025, will mark the 30th anniversary of Srebrenica," argues Milan Antonijević.

The international community's high representative — the peace watchdog in Bosnia — is a top German official, Christian Schmidt.

Early this year, he drafted the so-called "integrity package" for  Bosnia and Hercegovina, a set of reforms concerning electoral transparency and anti-fraud systems with rules supposed to introduce ineligibility for the war criminals to honour the EU Enlargement requests. 

The head of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, opposed the "integrity package" and threatened the secession of the Serbian entity from the rest of the country if it were forced to implement it. He has also repeatedly rejected Schmidt's authority — granted to him by the UN — labelling him as a "German occupier".

Dodik is the only top official from a European country who has repeatedly visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow since February 2022.

Russia's meddling to be addressed?

As a long-time opposition stalwart, Drašković thinks that the current Serbian establishment is not fit to rule the country in the years to come and that there are still many unresolved questions in Belgrade.

"Russia is doing everything to open a Balkan front. It wants a Balkan front. It can do it because it controls the security structures of the Serbian state," denounced Drašković.

"The EU missed the opportunity to make the rulers of Serbia open the files about the activities of the Russian security services in Serbia. The European Commission's obligation is to impose on Serbia to open those secret files. It should be a priority," he insisted.

In the end, the International Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica won't make any difference, according to Drašković. "Milorad Dodik recognised that genocide fifteen years ago. He simply changed his mind", he concluded.

SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=KOSOVO

Seeing the Forest for the Trees
Thesis on The Kosovo Crisis and the Crisis of Global Capitalism
(originally written May 1999, Bill Clinton set the stage for George W. to invade Afghanistan and Iraq for humanitarian purposes.)
http://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2005/01/war-whats-it-good-for-profit.html